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Pakistan Economic - 2021
Pakistan Economic - 2021
Chartered Accountants
Economic Brief
2021
12 June 2021
Economic Brief
Foreword
Economic Brief 2021 is a
publication prepared by KPMG
Pakistan to provide information
and commentary on the
performance of Pakistan’s
economy during FY21.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
1
Glossary
8m21 July to February IPO Initial Public Offering
IT Information Technology
Amid significant challenges and massive The FY21 began in the midst of the most
uncertainty, Pakistan witnessed a V-shaped severe global health crisis experienced in
economic recovery on the back of broad- modern history. Pakistan's economy was also
based growth across all sectors. The impacted which required measures for
provisional GDP growth rate for FY21 is supporting the economy by saving lives and
estimated at 3.9%, higher than the original livelihoods. The Government took several
target of 2.1%. important policy decisions: monetary and
fiscal measures, smart lockdowns, rapid
The higher than expected GDP growth is due vaccination etc. National Command and
to the exceptional performance in agriculture, Operating Centre as a single organization was
LSM, construction and exports sectors. The made responsible to take key decisions in
current account balance is in surplus, fiscal collaboration with the provinces. Due to the
deficit is manageable with the primary balance government’s timely decision making, COVID-
in surplus, the PKR is stable and foreign 19 positivity ratio is on a declining trend.
exchange reserves are relatively healthy.
Besides, virus containment measures, the
The policy rate remained unchanged at 7% government has implemented a
which kept the business sentiment positive. comprehensive set of measures including the
Tax collection witnessed decent growth owing largest ever economic stimulus package of
to the revival of domestic economic activity. PKR 1,240bn, a construction package, an
expansion of the social safety net to protect
Inflows of foreign exchange through the the vulnerable segments of society and a
Roshan Digital Account crossed the USD 1bn supportive monetary policy stance along with
mark while remittances posted historically targeted financial initiatives. These measures
high growth and reached USD 24bn during helped the economy in lessening the negative
10m21. impact of the pandemic.
Pakistan entered the international capital Under Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme,
market after a 3-year gap by successfully PKR 179.3bn has been disbursed and 14.8mn
raising USD 2.5bn through Euro bonds. families have benefited. World Bank
recognizes Ehsaas Emergency Cash among
During the year, all three major credit rating the top 4 social protection interventions
agencies, Moody's, Fitch and Standard & globally in terms of number of people
Poor's, reaffirmed their sovereign credit covered.
Ratings for Pakistan.
IMF has acknowledged that the government
Due to its impressive growth, PSX earned the policies have been critical in supporting the
best Asian stock market title and fourth best- economy and saving lives and livelihoods.
performing market across the world in 2020. The resumption of the stalled USD 6bn loan
programme has also been announced.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
3
KPMG Analysis (Cont’d)
Outlook for FY22 Way Forward
– The indicators show a visible In order to achieve the desired growth, we
improvement. The start of vaccination has propose the following key steps:
raised hopes of a turnaround later this – The manufacturing sector should
year. Social protection systems are also continue to be incentivized in order to
evolving specially to cover all vulnerable achieve sustainable growth and provide
segments. large scale employment opportunities.
– Business confidence has returned, and – The perennial issue of circular debt needs
economic activity is slowly getting back to to be tackled by reducing subsidies and
normal. It is expected that macroeconomic restructuring inefficient distribution
stabilization measures and structural companies.
reforms supported by international
development partners will help the – Comprehensive reforms should be
economy to move onto a higher and undertaken in the agriculture sector
sustainable growth trajectory. covering selection of cash crops,
enhancing yield, developing commodity
– During FY22 it is expected that the markets and development of food grain
economy will grow by approx. 5% and will silos.
accelerate further over the medium term.
– A strategic financial inclusion drive should
– Inflation is expected to touch double digits be launched to enhance the financial
due to the potential expansionary policies. inclusion of a large segment of the
– SBP policy rate appears to have bottomed population which is currently unbanked.
out and is anticipated to increase in order – Maximum benefit should be availed from
to tackle the inflationary trend. However inclusion of Pakistan in Amazon’s sellers
the extent of increase is not expected be list by focusing on training of Pakistani
significant in order to maintain the growth merchants and upgrading the payment
momentum. mechanisms in order to upgrade the
– Remittances are expected to grow further entire E-Commerce sector.
due to measures undertaken as part of – Private sector logistic companies should
anti-money laundering regulations in be incentivized in order for them to scale
accordance with FATF recommendations up businesses and develop international
which has resulted in a shift from informal partnerships for effective delivery.
to formal channels. Further, efforts under
the Pakistan Remittances Initiative and the – Pakistan Post being the initial delivery
gradual re-opening of businesses in major partner identified by Amazon should be
host countries will also play a part. restructured primarily in the areas of
automation and efficient parcel deliveries.
– PKR is not expected to depreciate
significantly against the USD due to a – Targeted incentives should be given to
healthy balance of payments. the IT sector in order to maximize the
huge export potential.
– Exports are expected to show better
performance since Pakistan’s major export – Banking sector should be incentivized to
destinations, China, UK, USA, France, Italy, provide lending to the SME and
Spain and Germany, are among the Agriculture sectors.
countries opening borders after recovering
from the pandemic.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
4
Macroeconomic Highlights
Favorable GDP Growth
Pakistan’s economy witnessed a V-shaped recovery in FY21. The
provisional GDP growth rate is 3.9% which exceeds the target of 2.1%
Higher Remittances
Remittances have grown with a CAGR of 4% in the last 5 years. During the
period 10m21, remittances grew by 29% when compared with 10m20 to
reach USD 24.2bn.
Lower Inflation
Average CPI for 11m21 was 8.8%, as compared to average inflation of
10.9% during the same period last year. IMF projects the inflation to be at
8.7% in FY22.
Current Account
Imports Surplus
USD 39.5bn
13.6%
Exports
from 9m20
Remittances
USD 21.5bn
26.5% from 9m20 0.5% of GDP
USD 18.7bn
-2.1% of
GDP in 9m20
3.9% from 9m20
Average Inflation
8.3%
Vs 11.5% 625bps slashed
in 9m20
7%
in FY20
1.4bn
from 9m20 9m20
FDI (USD)
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
6
Demographics
Urban vs Rural Population
Breakdown
Population
growth 1.8%
44%
56%
Total population
215.3 mil ion Rural Urban
15-29y 30-59y
University 4.6% 27 32
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
7
Gross Domestic Product
GDP Real GDP in (PKRbn) & Growth Rate (%)
Industrial Sector
Agriculture Industry Service Sector
– The Industrial Sector recovered this year
Source: Pakistan Economic Survey
with a healthy growth of 3.6% following
last years' negative growth.
– The Quantum Index of Manufacturing
(QIM) posted a robust growth of 9.3% as
the Governments initiatives to support the
sector proved fruitful.
Services Sector
– The services sector recovered in FY21
posting a growth of 4.4%. This lead to an
increase in its share in GDP to 62%.
– Positive growth of 8.4% was seen in
wholesale & retail sector, mainly
attributable to increase in marketable
surplus. However, the transport, storage
and communication segment has
declined by 0.6%
– Positive growth in services sector is
attributed to the GoP’s PKR 1.24tn
stimulus package to support the
economy.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
9
Current & Fiscal Account
Current Account Surplus Exports by category (USDmn)
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
11
Remittances
– Remittances have historically provided
strong support in sustaining current Worker Remittances (USD bn)
account balance against trade deficit in
Pakistan. 30
24
25
– Over the last five years, remittances have 19
grown by a CAGR of approximately 4%. 20
15
– Remittances stood at USD 24.2bn in 10
10m21 as compared to USD 19bn in
5
10m20, achieving a growth of 29%.
0
– In 10m21, significant YoY growth was 10m20 10m21
Others
Netherland 17%
5%
Switzerland China
5% 47%
UAE
5%
USA
6% UK Hong Kong
8% 8%
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
14
Capital Markets
Pakistan Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Performance
48,000.0
– The turnover of KSE100 index on Pakistan 46,000.0
Stock Exchange (PSX) during 10m21 was 44,000.0
PKR 49.8bn, compared to PKR 41bn in the 42,000.0
same period of FY20. The index averaged 40,000.0
38,000.0
42,604 points during 10m21, compared to
36,000.0
35,087 points during the same period in 34,000.0
the previous year.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
15
Key Developments
Government Programmes
Current expenditure
– The Construction incentive program
Development Expenditure
announced in April 2020 has given a major Total Expenditure
boost to the industry in FY21. Other
Source: Pakistan Economic Survey
previous initiatives like Naya Pakistan
Housing Scheme and Ravi Pakistan housing
scheme are projected to complete 5 million
new houses since their inception. This
impact has helped the country’s economy
by enabling the ancillary industries attached
to the construction industry to thrive.
Achieving a roll-on effect which has
provided sustainable growth.
© 2021 KPMG Taseer Hadi & Co., a Partnership firm registered in Pakistan and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated
with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. All rights reserved
16
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