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Goal scoring patterns in major European soccer leagues

Article  in  Sport Sciences for Health · December 2013

DOI: 10.1007/s11332-013-0154-9

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Goal scoring patterns in major European
soccer leagues

Giampietro Alberti, F. Marcello Iaia,

Enrico Arcelli, Luca Cavaggioni &
Ermanno Rampinini

Sport Sciences for Health

Founded by the Faculty of Exercise
Science - University of Milan, official
journal of the Italian Society of Exercise
and Sport Sciences

ISSN 1824-7490
Volume 9
Number 3

Sport Sci Health (2013) 9:151-153

DOI 10.1007/s11332-013-0154-9

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 Author's personal copy
Sport Sci Health (2013) 9:151–153
DOI 10.1007/s11332-013-0154-9
SHORT COMMUNICATION
Goal scoring patterns in major European soccer leagues
Giampietro Alberti • F. Marcello Iaia •
Enrico Arcelli • Luca Cavaggioni • Ermanno Rampinini
Received: 26 June 2013 / Accepted: 22 August 2013 / Published online: 13 September 2013
Ó Springer-Verlag Italia 2013
Abstract Soccer is a team sport that requires prolonged,
high-intensity, intermittent exercise and evidence from
previous studies has shown that players experience fatigue
toward the end of a match. Some preliminary observations
indicate that goal scoring increases over time during the
game; however, these preliminary results were obtained
analysing minor soccer leagues and/or using a limited
amount of matches. The aim of this study was to examine
the goal scoring patterns in four major European leagues
(English Premier League, French Football Ligue 1, Italian
Serie A and Spanish Football Liga) across three consecu-
tive seasons (2008–09, 2009–10 and 2010–11). Chi square
analysis revealed a significantly (p \ 0.001) higher goal
scoring frequency in the second half (55.1 %) compared to
the first half (44.9 %). The 15-min interval analysis high-
lighted a significant (p \ 0.001) upward trend in the
number of goals scored as time progressed (13.7, 15.1,
16.2, 17.7, 17.2 and 20.2 %, for 0–15, 15–30, 30–45,
45–60, 60–75 and 75–90 intervals respectively). The main
finding of the present study is that in the four major
European soccer leagues investigated the amount of goals
scored is greater in the second half, with the scoring rate
being highest in the last 15-min of a match. Fatigue
occurring during the game may play a role; however,
fatigue alone cannot explain the differences. The state of
the games result and the reduced time available for scoring
G. Alberti
F. M. Iaia
E. Arcelli
L. Cavaggioni

E. Rampinini
Department of Sport, Nutrition and Health Sciences, Faculty of
Exercise Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy
E. Rampinini (&)
Human Performance Laboratory, MAPEI Sport Research Center,
Olgiate Olona, Varese, Italy
e-mail: physiolab@mapeisport.it
are other potential contributing factors to the increased goal
scoring patterns observed in the latter stages of the game.
Keywords Fatigue
Performance
Professional

Intermittent exercise
Technical ability
Introduction
Soccer is a team sport that requires prolonged, high-intensity,
intermittent exercise. During the second half of a match, the
total distance and the quantity of high-intensity running
declines markedly; high-intensity running is 20–40 % lower in
the last 15-min of the game compared with the initial 15-min
period [4]. Accordingly, both single and repeated-sprint per-
formances are impaired at the end of the game [3]. Fatigue may
also have a negative impact on passing precision [5].
Some preliminary observations indicated that goal scoring
increases over time during a match [1, 2], suggesting a possible
link between match-related fatigue and goal scoring frequency.
However, these preliminary results were obtained analysing
minor soccer leagues and/or using a limited amount of matches.
Therefore, the aim of this study was to examine the goal
scoring patterns in four major European leagues across three
consecutive competitive seasons. It was hypothesized that goal
scoring frequency is higher in the second half, with the greatest
proportion being scored in the final 15-min of the game.
Methods
Procedures
The study was approved by the Mapei Sport Institutional
Review Board in line with the Helsinki Declaration.
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152
Analysis of goal scoring frequency was performed con-
sidering official matches played in four European leagues
National Championships (English Premier League, ENG;
French Football Ligue 1, FRA; Italian Serie A, ITA;
Spanish Football Liga, SPA) during three consecutive
competitive seasons (2008–09, 2009–10 and 2010–11). All
data were collected from the official results available on
each National leagues official web site (http://www.
premierleague.com, http://www.ligue1.com, http://www.
legaseriea.it and http://www.lfp.es).
Statistical analyses
2
Non parametric Chi square (v ) was used to determine the
differences in goal scoring frequency between the first and
second half, as well as between the six 15-min intervals of
the game (0–15, 15–30, 30–45, 45–60, 60–75 and 75–90).
These differences were investigated in four European lea-
gues National Championships during three consecutive
competitive seasons. Goals scored during the extra-time of
the first and second half were excluded from the analysis.
Statistical significance was set at p \0.05.
Results
A total of 10,885 goals scored in 4,560 matches were
analysed. Chi square analysis revealed a significantly
(p \ 0.001) higher goal scoring frequency in the second
half (55.1 %) compared to the first half (44.9 %) inde-
pendent of the European league or competitive season
(p [ 0.6). The goal scoring frequency during the first and
second half in each European league is reported in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1 The frequency of goals scored in the first (black column) and
second half (grey column) in each European league between the
2008–09 and 2010–11 competitive seasons (ENG English premier
league, FRA French football Ligue 1, ITA Italian Serie A, SPA
Spanish football Liga). *p \ 0.001 significantly different from first
half
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Sport Sci Health (2013) 9:151–153
Similarly, the 15-min interval analysis highlighted a
significant (p \ 0.001) upward trend in the number of
goals scored as time progressed (13.7, 15.1, 16.2, 17.7,
17.2 and 20.2 %, for 0–15, 15–30, 30–45, 45–60, 60–75
and 75–90 intervals respectively) independent of the
European league or competitive season (p [ 0.1). The goal
scoring frequency during each 15-min intervals in each
European league is reported in Fig. 2.
Discussion
The main finding of the present study is that in the major
European soccer leagues investigated the amount of goals
scored is greater in the second half, with the scoring rate
being highest in the last 15-min compared to the rest of the
game.
Nearly 11,000 goals were analysed and no differences
were observed between the three consecutive seasons and
four European leagues. This suggests that the scoring pat-
terns are not season or league-dependent. One of the factors
that may play a role is the development of fatigue during a
match. In addition to having a negative impact on technical
performance [5, 6], fatigue has also been reported to neg-
atively affect the sprinting and high-intensity running dis-
tance covered in the last 15-min [3]. This could potentially
lead to a reduction in how tight players are marked during
this phase of a game and result in more open spaces,
thereby increasing opportunities to score goals. However,
in the present study the physical data was not collected and
additional research is therefore necessary to establish a
Fig. 2 The frequency of goals scored in each of the six 15-min
intervals of the matches in each European league between the
2008–09 and 2010–11 competitive seasons (ENG black circles
English premier league, FRA white circles French football Ligue 1,
ITA black triangles Italian Serie A, SPA white triangles Spanish
football Liga)
 Author's personal copy
Sport Sci Health (2013) 9:151–153
direct association between fatigue and the frequency of
goals scored.
Furthermore, the closer a game gets to the end the
greater the urgency to score a goal, in particular when a
team is drawing or one goal down. In other words, players
are required to perform more attempts because time is
running out. Thus, it appears that the increase in goal
scoring rate cannot be explained by a single factor, it is the
sum of different variables, among which there is also the
nature of the game itself.
In conclusion, in the major European soccer leagues
analysed goal scoring frequency increases progressively
throughout the game with the highest rate being achieved
in the last 15-min. This does not appear to be related to a
particular season or country-related style of play. Possible
interactions between goal score frequency and develop-
ment of fatigue during the game or state of the games
results and reduction in time available for scoring should
be investigated in further studies.
Acknowledgments The authors would like to thank Lorenzo Pug-
liese for helping in data collection and Darragh R Connolly for his
valuable English revision.
Conflict of interest None.
View publication stats
153
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