Plant Disease Epidemiology

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Plant Disease Epidemiology

Epidemic and Epidemiology

 Epidemic
 A phenomenon when a pathogen spreads
to and affects many individuals within a
population over a relatively large area and
within a relatively short time.
(The dynamics of change in plant disease in
time and space.)
 Epidemiology
 The study of epidemics and the factors
that influence them.
Elements of an Epidemic
1. Host
2. Pathogen
3. Environment
 Interactions of the 3 main components

are described by the disease triangle.
The Disease Triangle
Source: Agrios (2005)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

1. Host factors
i. Levels of genetic resistance or susceptibility of
host
ii. Degree of genetic uniformity of host in a
particular field
iii. Type of crops
 Annual crops & foliar or fruit diseases develop much
more rapidly (in weeks)
 Perennial woody diseases take longer time to develop
(in years)
iv. Age of host plants
 Some plants are susceptible only during growth period
& become resistant during mature period

2. Pathogen factors
i. Levels of virulence
ii. Quantity of inoculum near hosts
iii. Type of reproduction of the pathogen
 Polycyclic or monocyclic pathogens
iv. Ecology of the pathogen
 Depends on the type of pathogen
v. Mode of spread of the pathogen
 Air-borne, soil-borne, vector-borne

3. Environmental factors
i. Moisture
 Rain, dew, high humidity
 Dominant factor in diseases caused by
oomycetes, fungi, bacteria & nematodes
ii. Temperature
 Affects disease cycles of pathogens

 Disease development is also affected by
4. Time
5. Humans
 Interactions of the 5 components are
described by the disease pyramid.
The Disease Pyramid


4. Time factors
 Season of the year
 Duration & frequency of favorable temp. &
rains
 Appearance of vectors, etc.
5. Human factors
 Site selection & preparation
 Selection of propagative materials
 Cultural practices
 Disease control measures
Patterns of Epidemics
1. Disease-progress curve
2. Disease-gradient or dispersal curve
Patterns of Epidemics (cont’)

1. Disease-progress curve
 Shows the progress of an epidemic over time,
e.g., numbers of lesions, numbers of diseased
plants, etc.
 Also allows disease forecasting & selection of
the best control strategy for the particular
disease & time.
 Basic epidemic patterns
i. Saturation-type curve: monocyclic diseases
ii. Sigmoid curve: polycyclic diseases

1. Monocyclic diseases
 Examples: root diseases, wilt diseases
 Long disease cycle (complete 1 cycle/year)
2. Polycyclic diseases
 Examples: leaf rust, leaf blight, leaf spot, mosaic
 Short disease cycle (produce many generations
in 1 growing season, 2-30 cycles/year)

1. Disease-progress curve (cont’)
Three monocyclic diseases of Polycyclic disease, such as late

different epidemic rates. blight of potato.

2. Disease-gradient or dispersal curve
 The amount of disease is greater near the
source of inoculum
 The amount of disease decreases with
increasing distance from the source

Comparison of Epidemic Models

Parameter Policyclic Model Monocyclic Model
Reproduction High reproduction & Low reproduction &
death rate death rate
Inoculum Wind-borne, vectors Soil-borne
dispersal
Examples Leaf rust, leaf Root diseases, foot

blight, leaf spot, rot, wilt diseases
powdery mildew,
mosaic
Comparison of Epidemic Models

(cont’)
Parameter Polycyclic Model Monocyclic Model
Control Stop pathogen Reduce initial
measure reproduction: spray inoculum: destroy
fungicides, use diseased plants or
resistant varieties debris
Epidemic E.g.: potato late E.g.: Verticillium wilt,

rate (r) blight, r = 0.3- r = 0.02/day
0.5/day
Comparison of Epidemics
 Compare
 Same disease: at different times, different
locations, under different management practices
 Different diseases
 Using epidemic (infection) rate (r)
 The amount of disease increase per unit of time
(per day, week or year).
 r derive from disease progress curve
transformed mathematically into straight
lines.
Epidemiology and Disease

Management
Monocyclic Model
x = QRt
x = disease incidence
Q = initial inoculum
R = infection rate
t = time
To reduce disease incidence, x, at any point in the epidemic:

1. Reduce initial inoculum, Q
2. Reduce rate of infection, R
3. Reduce duration of epidemic, t
Source: Arneson (2001)
Epidemiology and Disease

Management (cont’)
Polycyclic Model
x = x0ert
x = disease incidence
e = natural logarithm
x0= initial inoculum
r = infection rate
t = time
To reduce disease incidence, x, at any point in the epidemic:
1. Reduce initial inoculum, x0
2. Reduce rate of infection, r
3. Reduce duration of epidemic, t
Source: Arneson (2001)
Measurement of Plant Disease

and Yield Loss
1. Disease incidence
 The number of plant units that are diseased in relation to
the total number of units examined
 Commonly used to measure the spread of a disease
2. Disease severity
 The amount of plant tissue that is diseased
 Measured using assessment scales or by determining the
area under a disease progress curve (AUDPC)
3. Yield loss
 The proportion of yield that the grower will not be able to
harvest due to disease
 Results in economic loss
New Tools in Epidemiology

1. Molecular tools
 Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), Enzyme
Linked Immunosorbant Assay (ELISA), DNA
Fingerprinting, etc.
 For rapid & accurate detection & identification of
pathogens
2. Data management
 Geographic Information System (GIS), Global
Positioning System (GPS), Remote Sensing, etc.
 To assist in disease control strategies
3. Disease modeling & forecasting
 To predict the probability of outbreaks

Plant Disease Epidemiology

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Plant Disease Epidemiology

Epidemic and Epidemiology

 Interactions of the 3 main components

The Disease Triangle

Source: Agrios (2005)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

The Disease Pyramid

Source: Agrios (2005)

Elements of an Epidemic (cont’)

Patterns of Epidemics (cont’)

Patterns of Epidemics (cont’)

Patterns of Epidemics (cont’)

Three monocyclic diseases of Polycyclic disease, such as late

Patterns of Epidemics (cont’)

Source: Agrios (2005)

Comparison of Epidemic Models

Examples Leaf rust, leaf Root diseases, foot

Comparison of Epidemic Models

Epidemic E.g.: potato late E.g.: Verticillium wilt,

Epidemiology and Disease

To reduce disease incidence, x, at any point in the epidemic:

Epidemiology and Disease

Measurement of Plant Disease

New Tools in Epidemiology

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