TIS - Lazy Me-En

TECHNICAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY (TIS)
LAZY ME
Mensur Pocinci, MFTA

Alexis Chassagnade
This handout shall only be for the personal use of the intended recipient and shall not be redistributed to any
third party. Please find important legal information at the end of this document.
25 August 2021, 16:20 CET
STRATEGY OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
 S&P 500: New all-time highs – could see melt-up – stay invested
 Nasdaq 100: An exceptional bull resumes – stay invested
 Crypto: Watching short-term momentum bottom for possible Buy signal
 Chinese equities: Upgrade to Neutral – too early to buy
 High yield energy: Watch the 479bps level – momentum has turned positive
ACTION
 Global portfolio: We recommend buying Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase while selling
Roper Technologies and Analog Devices.
 European portfolio: We recommend buying Fortum and L’Oréal while selling Yara
International and HeidelbergCement.
 Asia-Pacific portfolio: We recommend buying Recruit Holdings, Fujifilm and CSL while selling
Mitsui & Co and Yamato Holdings.
 Short-term oversold portfolio: monthly rebalancing
25.08.2021 2
NASDAQ 100 – AN EXCEPTIONAL BULL
New medium-term momentum bottom
COMMENTS USD
 There are two ways how markets

3
overcome overbought
conditions. The most common, Nasdaq 100
rel. to S&P 500
way is through a correction and 2
a retracement of previous gains.
 However, in the rare case of a
super-strong bull market, the
overbought conditions are 1
simply resolved over time.
 We currently see such a pattern
in the relative performance of
the Nasdaq 100 versus the S&P MOM
500: after a strong Momentum 100

outperformance, the overbought
conditions have been resolved
by a sideways move. 0
 We see the bull run resuming

and the Nasdaq 100
outperforming further. 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
25.08.2021 3
NASDAQ 100 VS KEY ASSETS
Fresh highs – solid demand
COMMENTS REL
Nasdaq 100 rel. gold 8

 The Nasdaq 100 is printing new (10-week MAV)
highs vs gold, the MSCI World
excluding the USA, and US 6
Treasury bonds.
 This means that there is solid
demand from conservative REL
investors (gold and bonds) as 6

well as from global investors
(MSCI World ex. USA)
Nasdaq 100 rel. MSCI 5
World ex. USA
(10-week MAV)
4
REL
Nasdaq 100 rel. US treasury bonds 3

(10-week MAV)
2020 Apr Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul

25.08.2021 4
NASDAQ 100 VS REFLATION SECTORS
Outperforming vs oil & gas and materials –
neutral vs financials
COMMENTS USD
REL
 The Nasdaq 100 is 25

outperforming the oil & gas and
materials sectors. S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 rel. US 20
financials
 Looking at the relative (10-week MAV)
performance vs financials, the
outperformance is less weak, REL
calling for a neutral exposure to

financials. 40
Nasdaq 100 rel. US oil &

gas
20
(10-week MAV)
REL
25
Nasdaq 100 rel. US materials
(10-week MAV)

25.08.2021 5
THE TOP 6 STOCKS GLOBALLY
Growth strength
COMMENTS REL
 Apple, Microsoft and Amazon Apple relative to MSCI World 1.0

remain in a long-term
outperformance cycle vs the
MSCI World. 0.5
 Microsoft is already at new all-

time highs. REL
 The consolidation in Microsoft relative to MSCI World 2.0

Amazon.com needs to be
followed closely.
1.0
REL
Amazon relative to MSCI World

30
20
10
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

25.08.2021 6
THE TOP 6 STOCKS GLOBALLY
Growth strength
COMMENTS REL
Alphabet relative to MSCI World 20

 Alphabet and Nvidia have risen
to new all-time highs in relative
terms. 15
 The consolidation in Tesla is an

10
interesting one to follow closely.
REL
5.0
Tesla relative to MSCI World
REL
1.5
Nvidia relative to MSCI World
1.0
0.5
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

25.08.2021 7
BIGGEST CHALLENGE – BE LAZY
In bull markets – the biggest challenge is to be lazy and ignore the noise
COMMENTS S&P 500: SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM TREND-FOLLOWING

STRATEGIES VERSUS BUY & HOLD
 Your broker and real-time news
or data provider like you to think Index
that everyday something 5 4.8
important is happening that
needs your immediate action.
4
 Unfortunately, in bull markets,
the laziest investors earn the
highest returns. 3
2.5
 Thus, ask yourself: Are you
maybe too active? 2 1.9
 How about becoming a bit lazier
in order to harness better
returns? 1
0
Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 15 Jun 17 Jun 19 Jun 21
Buy & Hold Price crosses 10-day MAV
Price crosses 200-day MAV
25.08.2021 8
S&P 500 
‘Teflon bull’ – ignoring overbought signs – going melt-up? – stay invested
REL REL
Relative to
MSCI World
1.2
1.2
Relative to MSCI World
$ USD $ USD
S&P 500
4000 S&P 500 4000
(40-week MAV)
3500
3500
3000
3000
2500
2500
2000
MOM MOM
Momentum
50
0
Momentum
0
2020 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
25.08.2021 9
NASDAQ 100  RUSSELL 2000 
New all-time highs confirm next leg Upgrade to Bullish – rebound started –
higher but unlikely to outperform
REL REL
Relative to MSCI World 4.0
3.0 1.0
Relative to S&P 500
$ USD $ USD
Nasdaq 100 14000 Russell 2000

(40-week MAV) (40-week MAV)
2000
12000
10000
1500
8000
6000 1000
MOM MOM
Momentum Momentum
0
0
-50
Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul
25.08.2021 10
EURO STOXX 50  DAX 30 
Breakout to new highs – but lacklustre Breakout to new highs – but lacklustre
relative performance relative performance
REL REL
Relative to MSCI World Relative to MSCI World
0.5
€ EUR € EUR
DAX 30 16000
4000 (40-week MAV)
14000
3500
12000
3000
10000
Euro Stoxx 50 2500
(40-week MAV)
8000
MOM MOM
0
0
Momentum
-50 Momentum
-50
25.08.2021 11
SMI 
 SMIM (MID-CAPS) 
Refusing to go down – melt-up coming? Uptrend intact – outperformance vs SMI
intact
REL REL
2.4
1.0

CHF CHF
Swiss Market Index (SMI) SMIM

(40-week MAV) 12000 (40-week MAV)
3000
10000
2500
8000 2000
MOM MOM
0
0
Momentum Momentum
25.08.2021 12
CAC 40  MSCI UNITED KINGDOM 
New highs and momentum bottoming – Weak recovery – cannot become a leader
more to come – stay Underweight
REL REL
0.6
€ EUR £ GBP
CAC 40 2200
(40-week MAV)
6000
2000
1800
5000
MSCI United Kingdom 1600

(40-week MAV)
4000
1400
MOM MOM
0
0
Momentum Momentum
-50 -50
25.08.2021 13
NIKKEI 225  MSCI EM 

Medium-term momentum bottom – wait Long-term underperformance intact
to see if 40-week MAV breaks
REL REL
1.0
2.0
0.8
¥ JPY $ USD
Nikkei 225 30000

(40-week MAV)
25000 1000
20000
MSCI Emerging Markets
(18-month MAV) 500
15000
MOM MOM
Momentum
0 0
Momentum
-50 -100
Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul 2010 2015 2020
25.08.2021 14
MSCI CHINA 
 HANG SENG 

Possible double bottom – upgrade to Possible double bottom – upgrade to
Neutral – but too early to buy Neutral – but too early to buy
REL REL
0.8 0.8
0.6 0.6
HKD HKD
MSCI China Hang Seng

30000 (40-week MAV) 30000
(200-day MAV)
28000 28000
26000 26000
24000 24000
MOM MOM
Momentum Momentum
10 10
0 0
-10 -10
Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul
18.08.2021 15
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
Medium-
Last Support / Resistance
term Trend
Price
Rating S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
S&P 500 INDEX 4486  01 Apr 20 3950 4060 4320 4580 4740 4980
Nasdaq100 15358  01 Apr 20 13110 13880 14650 15410 16170 16630
Euro Stoxx 50 4185  11 Nov 20 3660 3730 3860 4280 4420 4600
DAX30 15885  11 Nov 20 13460 14130 14820 16000 16360 16840
CAC40 6680  11 Nov 20 5720 6150 6600 6870 7090 7220
MSCI United Kingdom 1999  18 Nov 20 1780 1870 1920 2050 2130 2200
Swiss Market Index 12345  04 Nov 20 11270 11910 12200 12590 13000 13270
NIKKEI 225 27725  14 Jul 21 25430 26710 27180 29380 30860 31200
US dollar Index 93.02  21 Jul 21 89.50 91.20 92.40 93.20 94.30 95.00
Euro / US dollar 1.1740  21 Jul 21 1.1300 1.1370 1.1610 1.1750 1.1950 1.2100
US dollar / Swiss franc 0.9137  21 Jul 21 0.8830 0.8940 0.9120 0.9250 0.9480 0.9600
US dollar / Japanese yen 109.95  18 Aug 21 102.60 105.30 107.90 112.00 114.60 115.80
Euro / Swiss franc 1.0727  19 Aug 20 1.0000 1.0230 1.0500 1.0860 1.1080 1.1430
WTI Crude Oil Future 67.03  21 Jul 21 55.00 57.90 61.60 68.20 72.30 75.60
Gold 1796  10 Aug 21 1590 1680 1740 1840 1920 2000
US 10YR T-Note Future 134.0  04 Aug 21 132.00 132.50 133.40 135.20 136.00 137.30
German-Bund Future 176.4  04 Aug 21 173.80 174.80 176.00 178.10 180.10 182.80
.
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:26
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; S = support, R = resistance
25.08.2021 16
SECTORS: GLOBAL, CURRENCY-ADJUSTED
COMMENTS Sectors
Rating % % Change
World USA Europe uptrend 52W 13W
 No change. Oil & gas 18 Aug 21  18 Aug 21  18 Aug 21  72 26.6 -5.1
Materials 07 Jul 21  07 Jul 21  07 Jul 21  73 28.2 -2.3
Industrials 14 Jul 21  14 Jul 21  14 Jul 21  72 30.4 1.6
Consumer cyclical 19 Sep 20  07 Feb 18  16 Sep 20  64 25.2 3.0
Consumer defensive 18 Sep 19  18 Sep 19  18 Sep 19  64 11.0 0.4
Healthcare 18 Aug 21  18 Aug 21  10 Mar 21  76 23.0 9.5
Financials 23 Jun 21  23 Jun 21  23 Jun 21  88 44.1 0.5
Information technology 16 Sep 15  16 Sep 15  17 May 17  81 33.1 13.7
Communications 13 Jan 21  07 Jul 21  10 Mar 21  73 33.9 6.9
Utilities 05 Aug 20  05 Aug 20  10 Mar 21  82 12.7 2.3
World equities (USD) 76 28.9 5.3
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:26

Classification: Julius Baer Financial Instruments; W= week
25.08.2021 17
REGIONAL RATINGS: MSCI INDICES
COMMENTS Rating 2 % Return

Region 1 Price
Rating Change 52-week 13-week
 No change.
Australia 53.5  17 May 17 -1.7 -6.4
Canada 79.6  03 Dec 14 0.6 -4.5
Emerging Asia 78.1  28 Jul 21 -13.5 -11.8
Emerging Europe 40.2  04 Aug 21 0.7 -3.3
Emerging Latin America 52.6  04 Aug 21 0.6 -5.0
3 46.0  09 Jun 21 -0.5 -4.0
EMU
Hong Kong 8.22  16 Jun 21 -9.0 -10.9
Japan 84.7  09 Jun 21 -8.6 -4.9
Singapore 15.1  03 Dec 14 -1.5 -6.2
Switzerland 57.8  09 Jun 21 -6.6 2.0
UK 74.9  20 Jun 18 -1.8 -5.4
USA 134  08 Jul 15 1.4 2.0
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:26
1
all indices in US dollar
2
3
EMU = Economic and Monetary Union
25.08.2021 18
CONCENTRATED PORTFOLIO (PASSIVE)
COMMENTS Name Ticker

Closing
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost Entry Price
Entry
Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
Nasdaq 100 NDX 15358 64 982’892 792’556 12384 9 Jan 19 12800 24.0%
Philadelphia Semicond. index SOX 3345.4 138 461’664 339’586 2460.8 3 Apr 19 2640 35.9%
 No change. S&P500 SPX 4486.2 135 605’641 530’415 3929.0 24 Mar 21 3730 14.2%
Nasdaq Biotechnology NBI 5318.8 25 132’971 122’748 4909.9 28 Apr 21 3960 8.3%
SMIM SMIM 3491.9 149 520’292 511’389 3432.1 16 Jun 21 2820 1.7%
Portfolio Summary
Positions 2’703’459
Cash 35’142
Total Portfolio Value 2’738’601
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; PnL = profit and loss; Note: Additional information can be found in
the appendix.
25.08.2021 19
CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE (SINCE INCEPTION, IN USD)

Index
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
Mar 15 Mar 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21
KEY FACTS AND FIGURES (%)

Volatility Max
1M 3M YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
(260-day) Drawdown
Concentrated model portfolio 2.4 4.9 -0.4 24.3 20.4 -9.3 26.4 8.9 -4.3 - 17.3 -25.5
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; Note: Cumulative performance chart as of close of previous day. Inception date of the concentrated model portfolio:
18 February 2015; M = month, YTD = year-to-date, Max = maximum
25.08.2021 20
Nasdaq 100 and
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
REL REL

2.0
2.0
1.0
$ USD $ USD
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

Nasdaq 100 3000
(40-week MAV)
2500
10000
2000
1500
5000
1000
MOM MOM
Momentum 50
50 0
Momentum
-50
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul
25.08.2021 21
S&P 500 and SMIM
REL REL
2.0
1.2

1.0
$ USD CHF
SMIM 3000
4000
S&P 500
2000
3500
3000
2500 1000
2000
MOM MOM
Momentum Momentum 200

50
2015 2020 2005 2010 2015 2020
25.08.2021 22
Nasdaq Biotechnology
REL
3.0
$ USD
Nasdaq Biotechnology 5000
4000
3000
2000
MOM
Momentum 100
2015 2020
25.08.2021 23
GLOBAL EQUITIES PORTFOLIO
Closing # of Entry PnL

Price shares
Value Cost Entry Price
Date
Stop Loss
%
Taiwan Semiconductor Man. TSM US 112.1 890 99’778 43’290 48.64 25 Mar 20 56.30 130.5%
Texas Instruments TXN US 187.8 550 103’301 69’168 125.8 24 Jun 20 102.4 49.3%
 We recommend buying Bank of Broadcom AVGO US 481.4 175 84’250 64’608 369.2 2 Sep 20 257.1 30.4%
America and JPMorgan Chase. Applied Materials

Microsoft
AMAT US
MSFT US
131.4
302.6
810
410
106’466
124’074
60’965
97’990
75.27
239.0
18 Nov 20
27 Jan 21
62.00
185.9
74.6%
26.6%
Alphabet GOOGL US 2825 50 141’262 92’545 1851 27 Jan 21 1526 52.6%
DSV Panalpina1 DSV DC 1585.0 440 110’092 86’912 1248.0 31 Mar 21 1000 26.7%
Moderna MRNA US 394.9 710 280’407 95’403 134.4 7 Apr 21 240.0 193.9%
Facebook FB US 365.5 305 111’481 94’709 310.5 7 Apr 21 265.0 17.7%
MSCI MSCI US 618.4 195 120’582 90’312 463.1 14 Apr 21 370.0 33.5%
Moody's MCO US 376.4 285 107’260 90’425 317.3 14 Apr 21 250.0 18.6%
Adobe ADBE US 657.2 175 115’017 90’354 516.3 14 Apr 21 410.0 27.3%
Kering 2 KER FP 675.8 120 95’217 90’933 633.5 14 Apr 21 510.0 4.7%
salesforce.com CRM US 259.7 380 98’671 92’964 244.6 16 Jun 21 204.0 6.1%
Accenture PLC ACN US 330.9 320 105’891 94’328 294.8 30 Jun 21 250.0 12.3%
Visa V US 234.2 380 89’011 90’852 239.1 7 Jul 21 200.0 -2.0%
Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO US 550.5 170 93’583 88’465 520.4 7 Jul 21 435.0 5.8%
PayPal Holdings PYPL US 279.5 310 86’648 91’328 294.6 7 Jul 21 245.8 -5.1%
Chipotle Mexican Grill CMG US 1921 55 105’629 88’733 1613.3 14 Jul 21 1285 19.0%
Dollar General DG US 232.8 380 88’445 87’628 230.6 28 Jul 21 193.0 0.9%
Bio-Rad Laboratories BIO US 788.8 125 98’599 88’718 709.7 28 Jul 21 590.0 11.1%
Home Depot HD US 324.9 320 103’968 105’798 330.6 4 Aug 21 275.0 -1.7%
Pfizer PFE US 48.38 2350 113’693 106’009 45.11 4 Aug 21 38.40 7.2%
Aon AON US 279.5 310 86’642 83’948 270.8 11 Aug 21 220.0 3.2%
International Flavors & Frag. IFF US 151.3 530 80’184 83’104 156.8 11 Aug 21 120.0 -3.5%
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals REGN US 670.0 175 117’241 113’478 648.4 18 Aug 21 545.0 3.3%
Edwards Lifesciences EW US 118.1 960 113’366 113’189 117.9 18 Aug 21 98.50 0.2%
Intuitive Surgical ISRG US 1047 108 113’043 113’098 1047 18 Aug 21 870.0 0.0%
Bank of America BAC US 41.48 25 Aug 21 34.80
JPMorgan Chase JPM US 157.7 25 Aug 21 132.5
Currencies
Currency Entry Now Change Portfolio Summary
1=DKK 6.3181 6.3347 -0.3% Positions 3’280’906
2=EUR 0.8360 0.8517 -1.8% Cash 941
3=EUR 0.8212 0.8517 -3.6% Total Portfolio Value 3’281’847
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; PnL = profit and loss
Note: Additional information can be found in the appendix
25.08.2021 24
COMMENTS Stocks to sell or stopped out

Closing # of Entry
Name Ticker Value Cost Entry Price Stop Loss % PnL
Price shares Date
 We recommend selling Roper Roper Technologies ROP US 479.4 200 95’888 92’924 464.6 16 Jun 21 389.0 3.2%
Analog Devices ADI US 165.9 550 91’218 94’232 171.3 30 Jun 21 144.0 -3.2%
Technologies and Analog Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
Devices.
25.08.2021 25
Buy Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase
REL REL
0.4 2.0

$ $ USD
USD
Bank of America 40
150
JPMorgan Chase
30
100
20
10 50
MOM MOM
Momentum
50
0
0
Momentum
-50 -50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
25.08.2021 26

Index
280
240
200
160
120
80
Jun 13 Jun 14 May 15 Apr 16 Mar 17 Mar 18 Feb 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Dec 21
Global equities model portfolio MSCI All Country World Index (net)

Volatility Max
1M 3M YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
(260-day) Drawdown
Global equities model portfolio 0.7 9.9 13.7 30.4 25.2 -4.1 28.0 -0.2 1.4 5.2 18.3 18.3 -30.0
MSCI All Country World Index 1.2 4.2 14.8 16.3 26.6 -9.4 24.0 7.9 -2.4 4.2 15.8 12.3 -33.7
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer. Note: Cumulative performance chart as of close of previous day. Inception date of the global equities model portfolio:
24 June 2013; M = month, YTD = year-to-date, Max = maximum
25.08.2021 27
EUROPEAN EQUITIES PORTFOLIO
COMMENTS Name
Closing
Ticker
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost Entry Price Entry Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
+Div RMS FP 1249 80 99’920 49’624 621.8 25 Mar 20 517.6 101.4%
Hermes International
Deutsche Post +Div DPW GR 59.44 1600 95’104 50’976 33.01 01 Jul 20 27.00 86.6%
 We recommend buying Fortum Atlas Copco Ab-B 1 ATCOB SS 502.6 1500 73’725 51’040 354.7 08 Jul 20 248.00 44.4%
and L’Oréal. Infineon Technologies +Div

Partners Group 2 +Div
IFX GR
PGHN SW
35.49
1639
2500
50
88’713
76’358
52’425
41’393
21.19
912.0
08 Jul 20
04 Nov 20
16.80
750.0
69.2%
84.5%
Cie Financiere Richemont 3 CFR SW 103.4 600 57’779 48’155 86.44 20 Jan 21 70.00 20.0%
Sonova Holding 4 +Div SOON SW 353.0 230 75’650 48’160 228.5 27 Jan 21 183.9 57.1%
Comp. de Saint Gobain+Div SGO FP 62.04 980 60’799 43’875 46.10 03 Mar 21 38.00 38.6%
DSV Panalpina5 DSV DC 1585 250 53’284 41’946 1248.0 31 Mar 21 1000 27.0%
AP Moller-Maersk 6 MAERSKA DC 16870 34 77’130 64’371 14080 07 Apr 21 11200 19.8%
SAP+Div SAP GR 125.4 390 48’906 44’058 114.8 14 Apr 21 93.90 11.0%
Diageo7 DGE LN 3529 1200 49’428 43’673 3165 14 Apr 21 2550 13.2%
Kering+Div KER FP 675.8 70 47’306 43’960 633.5 14 Apr 21 510.0 7.6%
AstraZeneca 8 +Div AZN LN 8612 500 50’266 43’628 7631 21 Apr 21 6220 15.2%
Coloplast 9 +Div COLOB DC 1098 330 48’702 44’378 1005 21 Apr 21 815.0 9.7%
BB Biotech 10 BION SW 87.95 580 47’530 44’515 84.65 28 Apr 21 69.00 6.8%
Air Liquide AI FP 149.9 340 50’980 49’926 146.8 16 Jun 21 123.0 2.1%
EssilorLuxottica EL FP 161.8 340 54’998 50’293 147.9 16 Jun 21 124.0 9.4%
Adidas ADS GR 307.6 170 52’284 53’176 312.8 30 Jun 21 264.0 -1.7%
RELX REN NA 25.31 2200 55’682 52’118 23.7 07 Jul 21 19.80 6.8%
Capgemini CAP FP 189.8 310 58’838 51’739 166.9 07 Jul 21 140.0 13.7%
STMicroelectronics STM FP 36.63 1800 65’934 59’499 33.06 14 Jul 21 26.40 10.8%
Currencies
Currency Entry Now Change Kuehne + Nagel 12 KNIN SW 328.2 135 41’284 38’362 305.4 28 Jul 21 258.0 7.6%
1=EURSEK 10.424 10.226 1.9% Ahold +Div AD NA 28.76 1900 54’644 51’984 27.79 11 Aug 21 22.50 5.1%
2=EURCHF 1.0692 1.0732 -0.4%
Prysmian PRY IM 31.68 1600 50’688 51’568 32.23 11 Aug 21 26.00 -1.7%
3=EURCHF 1.0770 1.0732 0.4% Umicore UMI BB 56.30 880 49’544 52’078 59.18 11 Aug 21 48.00 -4.9%
4=EURCHF 1.0763 1.0732 0.3% Tecan 13 TECN SW 568.5 110 58’268 55’268 539.5 18 Aug 21 468.0 5.4%
5=EURDKK 7.4382 7.4365 0.0% Veolia Environment VIE FP 29.09 1900 55’271 54’188 28.52 18 Aug 21 23.90 2.0%
6=EURDKK 7.4369 7.4365 0.0% Fortum FORTUM FH 25.64 25 Aug 21 21.60
7=EURGBP 0.8695 0.8566 1.5% L'Oreal OR FP 392.2 25 Aug 21 330.0
+Div
8=EURGBP 0.8641 0.8566 0.9% dividends paid - adjusted in value
9=EURDKK 7.4361 7.4365 0.0%
10=EURCHF 1.1029 1.0732 2.8% Portfolio Summary
11=EURNOK 10.180 10.393 -2.1% Positions 1’787’527
12=EURCHF 1.0747 1.0732 0.1% Cash 7’677
13=EURCHF 1.0738 1.0732 0.0% Total Portfolio Value 1’795’204
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27 Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
25.08.2021 28

Closing # of Stop PnL
Name Ticker Value Cost Entry Price Entry Date
Price shares Loss %
 We recommend selling Yara Yara International 11 YAR NO 454.0 1100 48’053 51’058 472.5 23 Jun 21 397.0 -5.9%
HeidelbergCement HEI GR 73.56 550 40’458 41’338 75.16 28 Jul 21 63.00 -2.1%
International and Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
HeidelbergCement.
Currencies
Currency Entry Now Change
1=EURSEK 10.424 10.226 1.9%
2=EURCHF 1.0692 1.0732 -0.4%
3=EURCHF 1.0770 1.0732 0.4%
4=EURCHF 1.0763 1.0732 0.3%
5=EURDKK 7.4382 7.4365 0.0%
6=EURDKK 7.4369 7.4365 0.0%
7=EURGBP 0.8695 0.8566 1.5%
8=EURGBP 0.8641 0.8566 0.9%
9=EURDKK 7.4361 7.4365 0.0%
10=EURCHF 1.1029 1.0732 2.8%
11=EURNOK 10.180 10.393 -2.1%
12=EURCHF 1.0747 1.0732 0.1%
13=EURCHF 1.0738 1.0732 0.0%
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
25.08.2021 29
Buy Fortum and L’Oréal
REL REL
Relative to MSCI Europe

3.0
Relative to MSCI Europe

5.0 2.0
€ EUR € EUR
25
Fortum L’Oreal 350

20
300
15 250
200
10
150
MOM MOM
Momentum
20
0
0
Momentum
-50
-20
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
25.08.2021 30
CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE (SINCE INCEPTION, IN EUR)

Index
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Apr 15 Jan 16 Nov 16 Sep 17 Jul 18 May 19 Mar 20 Jan 21
European equities model portfolio MSCI Europe (net)

Volatility Max
1M 3M YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
(260-day) Drawdown
European equities model portfolio 3.9 5.9 18.1 17.1 23.9 -10.7 19.9 6.6 -7.9 - 14.1 -23.1
MSCI Europe 2.3 6.2 20.1 -3.3 27.5 -10.6 10.2 2.6 -7.5 - 13.9 -33.7
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer. Note: Cumulative performance chart as of close of previous day. Inception date of the european equities model portfolio:
1 April 2015; M = month, YTD = year-to-date, Max = maximum
25.08.2021 31
SWISS EQUITIES PORTFOLIO

Closing
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost
Entry
Price
Entry Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
SIKA +Div SIKA SW 328.2 510 167’382 33’185 71.95 20 Jul 16 154.4 404.4%
 No change. SIG Combibloc Group +Div

Partners Group +Div
SIGN SW
PGHN SW
27.60
1639.0
6000
100
165’600
163’900
102’540
88’450
17.51
912.0
19 Aug 20
04 Nov 20
12.40
750.0
61.5%
85.3%
ABB +Div ABBN SW 34.07 4200 143’094 106’218 26.09 06 Jan 21 21.00 34.7%
Geberit +Div GEBN SW 753.2 250 188’300 146’550 597.6 13 Jan 21 482.8 28.5%
Sonova Holding +Div SOON SW 353.0 450 158’850 101’385 228.5 27 Jan 21 184.3 56.7%
Straumann Holding +Div STMN SW 1730.0 120 207’600 125’070 1048 03 Feb 21 840.0 66.0%
Lonza +Div LONN SW 764.4 215 164’346 118’960 554.8 24 Mar 21 450.0 38.2%
Givaudan GIVN SW 4592 33 151’536 119’394 3618 24 Mar 21 2920 26.9%
Temenos +Div TEMN SW 143.4 860 123’281 119’583 139.7 24 Mar 21 112.0 3.1%
Galenica +Div GALE SW 71.55 2400 171’720 150’600 63.65 21 Apr 21 52.00 14.0%
EMS-Chemie Holding EMSN SW 1001.0 170 170’170 151’045 888.5 21 Apr 21 705.0 12.7%
BB Biotech BION SW 87.95 1420 124’889 120’203 84.65 28 Apr 21 69.00 3.9%
Roche Holding ROG SW 361.0 460 166’060 144’348 313.8 26 May 21 265.0 15.0%
Barry Callebaut BARN SW 2338 56 130’928 125’440 2240 07 Jul 21 1860 4.4%
Schindler Holding SCHP SW 296.2 430 127’366 122’335 284.5 14 Jul 21 228.0 4.1%
Swiss Prime Site SPSN SW 96.95 1230 119’249 119’310 97.00 28 Jul 21 79.00 -0.1%
Swiss Life Holding SLHN SW 484.3 310 150’133 147’529 475.9 04 Aug 21 398.0 1.8%
Tecan TECN SW 568.5 250 142’125 134’875 539.5 18 Aug 21 462.0 5.4%
Kuehne + Nagel KNIN SW 328.2 420 137’844 138’810 330.5 18 Aug 21 276.0 -0.7%
+Div
dividends paid - adjusted in value
Portfolio Summary
Cash 3’110
Tot Portfolio Value 2’977’032
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:27
25.08.2021 32
SWISS EQUITIES PORTFOLIO
CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE (SINCE INCEPTION, IN CHF)

Index
270
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Jul 13 May 14 Mar 15 Jan 16 Nov 16 Sep 17 Jul 18 May 19 Mar 20 Jan 21 Nov 21
Swiss equities model portfolio Swiss Performance Index

Volatility Max
1M 3M YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013
(260-day) Drawdown
Swiss equities model portfolio 4.0 12.0 21.1 4.1 23.6 -15.8 39.8 17.6 7.1 3.1 4.9 11.0 -29.6
Swiss Performance Index 3.2 9.1 19.7 3.8 30.2 -8.6 19.6 -2.2 2.2 12.9 4.4 11.5 -26.3
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer. Note: Cumulative performance chart as of close of previous day. Inception date of the swiss equities model portfolio:
17 July 2013; M = month, YTD = year-to-date, Max = maximum
25.08.2021 33
APAC EQUITIES PORTFOLIO

Closing
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost
Entry
Price
Entry
Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
+Div TSM US 112.1 1’150 128’927 43’797 39.81 12 Jun 19 56.30 194.4%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manu. (ADR)
Tokyo Electron 1 8035 JP 44750 210 85’471 44’143 22805 9 Apr 20 19530 93.6%
 We recommend buying Recruit ENN Energy Holdings 2 +Div 2688 HK 137.8 3’800 67’271 43’003 89.80 21 Oct 20 76.40 56.4%
Minebea Mitsumi 3 6479 JP 2805 2’200 56’126 48’443 2279 21 Jan 21 1800.0 15.9%
Holdings, Fujifilm and CSL while Sunny Optical Technology 5 2382 HK 224.4 2’000 57’657 49’820 193.3 22 Apr 21 156.0 15.7%
selling Mitsui & Co and Yamato Wuxi Biologics Cayman 6 2269 HK 121.1 3’400 52’896 52’573 120.0 27 May 21 99.54 0.6%
ANTA Sports Products 6 2020 HK 159.5 2’640 54’096 53’135 156.2 27 May 21 131.0 1.8%
Holdings. Geely Automobile Holdings 7 175 HK 25.50 15’500 50’777 53’409 26.75 24 Jun 21 21.60 -4.9%
CLP Holdings 9 2 HK 77.95 5’100 51’072 52’737 80.35 29 Jul 21 64.30 -3.2%
Daikin Industries 10 6367 JP 26645 260 63’008 52’287 22065 12 Aug 21 21000 20.5%
Keyence 10 6861 JP 65620 100 59’682 52’415 57510 12 Aug 21 52000 13.9%
Recruit Holdings 6098 JP 6333 26 Aug 21 5320
Fujifilm Holdings 4901 JP 8870 26 Aug 21 7360
CSL CSL AU 312.5 26 Aug 21 260.0
+Div
ADR = American Depositary Receipt, dividends paid - adjusted in value
Portfolio Summary
Currencies
Positions 826’535
Currency Entry Now Change Cash 942’764
1=JPY 108.5 110.0 -1.3% Total Portfolio Value 1’769’299
2=HKD 7.750 7.784 -0.4% Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:30
3=JPY 103.5 110.0 -5.9%
4=JPY 104.9 110.0 -4.6%
5=HKD 7.760 7.784 -0.3%
6=HKD 7.761 7.784 -0.3%
Stocks to sell or stopped out
7=HKD 7.763 7.784 -0.3%
Closing # of Entry PnL
8=JPY 109.7 110.0 -0.2% Name Ticker Value Cost Entry Price Stop Loss
Price shares Date %
9=HKD 7.770 7.784 -0.2%
Mitsui & Co. 4 8031 JP 2382 2’500 54’161 47’861 2009 12 Feb 21 1610 13.2%
10=JPY 109.7 110.0 -0.2%
Yamato Holdings 8 9064 JP 2852 1’750 45’393 52’554 3295 8 Jul 21 2740 -13.6%
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:30
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:30
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; PnL = profit and loss; APAC = Asia Pacific
25.08.2021 34
Buy Recruit Holdings and Fujifilm
REL REL
Relative to MSCI APAC Relative to MSCI APAC
1
2
$ USD $ USD
80
Recruit Holdings 50
Fujifilm 70
40
60
30
50
20
40
10
MOM MOM
Momentum
20
0
0
Momentum
-50 -20
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
25.08.2021 35
Buy CSL
REL
Relative to MSCI APAC 20
10
$ USD
CSL 200
150
100
MOM
Momentum
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

25.08.2021 36

Index
250
230
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Jul 14 Jun 15 May 16 Apr 17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Feb 20 Jan 21
APAC equities model portfolio MSCI Asia-Pacific (net)

Volatility Max
1M 3M YTD 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 (260-day) Drawdown
APAC equities model portfolio -1.4 -3.9 -6.9 28.5 16.5 -12.6 44.9 4.1 7.2 1.7 8.3 -24.2
MSCI Asia-Pacific -1.4 -3.7 0.2 19.7 20.6 -13.5 31.7 4.9 -2.0 -5.3 13.9 -29.8
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer. Note: Cumulative performance chart as of close of previous day. Inception date of the asia-pacific equities model portfolio:
16 July 2014; M = month, YTD = year-to-date, Max = maximum
25.08.2021 37
US OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT TERM)

Closing
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost
Entry
Price
Entry
Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
Automatic Data Processing ADP US 208.2 25 Aug 21 170.7
 Monthly rebalancing – stocks to American Express Co AXP US

BR US
161.2
171.3
25 Aug 21
25 Aug 21
132.2
140.4
Broadridge Financial Solutio
buy. Borgwarner Inc BWA US 43.39 25 Aug 21 35.60
Crown Castle Intl Corp CCI US 192.5 25 Aug 21 157.9
Cerner Corp CERN US 77.19 25 Aug 21 63.30
Fedex Corp FDX US 267.8 350 93’734 98’438 281.3 28 Jul 21 219.6 -4.8%
Fortive Corp FTV US 73.70 1’400 103’180 96’110 68.65 28 Jul 21 60.40 7.4%
Hershey Co/The HSY US 176.1 25 Aug 21 144.4
Carmax Inc KMX US 125.5 25 Aug 21 102.9
Coca-Cola Co/The KO US 56.01 25 Aug 21 45.90
Eli Lilly & Co LLY US 262.8 25 Aug 21 215.5
Mondelez International Inc-A MDLZ US 62.25 25 Aug 21 51.00
3M Co MMM US 194.8 25 Aug 21 159.7
Nielsen Holdings Plc NLSN US 21.80 25 Aug 21 17.90
Oracle Corp ORCL US 88.55 25 Aug 21 72.60
Paychex Inc PAYX US 114.3 25 Aug 21 93.70
Pool Corp POOL US 477.6 25 Aug 21 391.6
Seagate Technology Holdings STX US 86.07 25 Aug 21 70.60
Whirlpool Corp WHR US 221.1 25 Aug 21 181.3
Portfolio Summary
Cash 7’442
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:32
25.08.2021 38
US OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT TERM)

Closing # of Entry Entry Stop
Name Ticker Value Cost % PnL
Price shares Price Date Loss
 Monthly rebalancing – stocks to Allegion Plc ALLE US 140.4 725 101’790 98’694 136.1 28 Jul 21 109.4 3.1%
Ball Corp BLL US 94.51 1’200 113’412 97’548 81.29 28 Jul 21 64.90 16.3%
sell. Biogen Inc BIIB US 349.4 290 101’326 96’476 332.7 28 Jul 21 267.2 5.0%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc CHRW US 89.56 1’100 98’516 96’701 87.91 28 Jul 21 73.06 1.9%
Cigna Corp CI US 211.9 400 84’756 90’312 225.8 28 Jul 21 183.1 -6.2%
Cummins Inc CMI US 236.1 420 99’179 97’591 232.4 28 Jul 21 187.0 1.6%
Dupont De Nemours Inc DD US 74.75 1’350 100’913 98’847 73.22 28 Jul 21 59.20 2.1%
Expeditors Intl Wash Inc EXPD US 122.8 750 92’070 93’255 124.3 28 Jul 21 101.1 -1.3%
Intel Corp INTC US 53.81 1’850 99’549 98’418 53.20 28 Jul 21 42.54 1.1%
Leggett & Platt Inc LEG US 48.55 2’100 101’955 98’994 47.14 28 Jul 21 38.23 3.0%
Lowe'S Cos Inc LOW US 203.4 500 101’695 96’685 193.4 28 Jul 21 154.8 5.2%
Maxim Integrated Products MXIM US 104.37 1’000 104’370 97’540 97.54 28 Jul 21 77.45 7.0%
Netapp Inc NTAP US 80.78 1’250 100’975 97’150 77.72 28 Jul 21 62.37 3.9%
Omnicom Group OMC US 72.59 1’330 96’545 96’199 72.33 28 Jul 21 58.78 0.4%
Stanley Black & Decker Inc SWK US 192.5 500 96’245 98’820 197.6 28 Jul 21 161.3 -2.6%
Svb Financial Group SIVB US 568.4 170 96’625 93’934 552.6 28 Jul 21 443.5 2.9%
Texas Instruments Inc TXN US 187.8 520 97’666 96’689 185.9 28 Jul 21 148.1 1.0%
United Parcel Service-Cl B UPS US 193.3 500 96’635 95’575 191.2 28 Jul 21 156.2 1.1%
Data as of: 30/06/2021 16:48
25.08.2021 39
EU OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT TERM)

Closing
Price
# of
shares
Value Cost
Entry
Price
Entry
Date
Stop
Loss
PnL
%
Adidas Ag ADS GR 307.5 25 Aug 21 253.0
Auto Trader Group Plc AUTO LN 632.8 25 Aug 21 520.0
 Monthly rebalancing – stocks to Burberry Group Plc BRBY LN 1850 25 Aug 21 1527
buy. Bureau Veritas Sa

Coca-Cola Hbc Ag-Di
BVI FP
CCH LN
27.79
2631
25 Aug 21
25 Aug 21
22.90
2169
Christian Dior Se CDI FP 644.0 25 Aug 21 532.6
Coloplast-B COLOB DC 1097 25 Aug 21 905.3
Ems-Chemie Holding Ag-Reg EMSN SW 1001 25 Aug 21 831.5
Getinge Ab-B Shs GETIB SS 351.8 25 Aug 21 289.3
Gn Store Nord A/S GN DC 465.0 25 Aug 21 380.6
Imperial Brands Plc IMB LN 1526 25 Aug 21 1251
Industrivarden Ab-A Shs INDUA SS 312.4 25 Aug 21 257.6
Kering KER FP 676.6 25 Aug 21 555.3
Kesko Oyj-B Shs KESKOB FH 35.23 25 Aug 21 28.90
Kinnevik Ab - B KINVB SS 343.7 25 Aug 21 284.4
Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vui MC FP 626.4 25 Aug 21 514.6
Moncler Spa MONC IM 54.54 25 Aug 21 45.10
Pandora A/S PNDORA DC 762.6 25 Aug 21 628.1
Swisscom Ag-Reg SCMN SW 539.0 25 Aug 21 443.5
Sonova Holding Ag-Reg SOON SW 353.8 25 Aug 21 290.6
Portfolio Summary
Cash 8’795
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:32
25.08.2021 40
EU OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT TERM)

Closing # of Entry Entry Stop
Name Ticker Value Cost % PnL
Price shares Price Date Loss
 Monthly rebalancing – stocks to Aker Bp Asa 1
Astrazeneca Plc 2
AKRBP NO
AZN LN
230.5
8605
4’000
10
88’670
100’460
92’766
97’026
241.9
8265
28 Jul 21
28 Jul 21
193.7
6624
-4.7%
4.1%
sell. Eurofins Scientific ERF FP 118.0 930 109’703 92’795 99.8 28 Jul 21 79.70 18.2%
Ferguson Plc 2 FERG LN 10205 8 95’311 94’714 10085 28 Jul 21 8084 1.2%
Imperial Brands Plc 2 IMB LN 1525 50 89’019 90’922 1549 28 Jul 21 1249 -1.5%
Intertek Group Plc 2 ITRK LN 5234 14 85’547 91’971 5596 28 Jul 21 4485 -6.5%
Ipsen IPN FP 83.10 1’080 89’748 92’729 85.86 28 Jul 21 69.02 -3.2%
Jeronimo Martins JMT PL 17.95 5’600 100’492 92’540 16.53 28 Jul 21 13.23 8.6%
Kuehne + Nagel Intl Ag-Reg 4 KNIN SW 328.3 320 97’907 91’023 306.6 28 Jul 21 244.7 7.1%
La Francaise Des Jeux Saem FDJ FP 42.35 1’950 82’583 93’230 47.81 28 Jul 21 37.27 -11.4%
Logitech International-Reg 3 LOGN SW 96.5 900 80’940 92’105 112.3 30 Jun 21 80.20 -14.0%
Neste Oyj NESTE FH 50.28 1’780 89’498 92’880 52.18 28 Jul 21 42.18 -3.6%
Nestle Sa-Reg 4 NESN SW 114.8 880 94’166 93’039 113.96 28 Jul 21 91.26 0.8%
Pandora A/S 5 PNDORA DC 762.4 840 86’119 92’632 820.2 28 Jul 21 656.2 -7.0%
Persimmon Plc 2 PSN LN 2886 27 90’971 90’937 2869 28 Jul 21 2300 0.6%
Roche Holding Ag-Genusschein 4 ROG SW 361.0 290 97’566 93’332 346.9 28 Jul 21 277.3 4.1%
Seb Sa SK FP 135.2 670 90’584 92’996 138.8 28 Jul 21 110.3 -2.6%
Telecom Italia Spa TIT IM 0.383 221’300 84’802 92’526 0.418 30 Jun 21 0.300 -8.3%
Vestas Wind Systems A/S 5 VWS DC 257.700 2’970 102’922 93’001 232.900 28 Jul 21 183.280 10.6%
Zalando Se ZAL GR 96.08 950 91’276 92’777 97.66 28 Jul 21 78.70 -1.6%
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:35
Currencies
Currency Entry Now Change
1=NOK 10.43 10.40 0.3%
2=GBp 0.852 0.857 -0.6%
3=CHF 1.097 1.073 2.2%
4=CHF 1.078 1.073 0.5%
5=DKK 7.438 7.436 0.0%
25.08.2021 41
FIXED INCOME: HIGH-YIELD OIL & GAS SPREAD
Positive momentum points to downside risks –
key resistance at 479
$ BPS
COMMENTS
2000
 The spread between US high- US high yield oil & gas bonds
yield oil & gas bonds and US versus US Treasuries 1500
Treasuries found support at (spread)
the lows made in 2018.
1000
 This is notable because 123.60% - 962
medium-term momentum has 100.00% - 848
76.40% - 734
been diverging (moving
higher) while spreads were 50.00% - 607
500
declining throughout this year. 23.60% - 479
 A break above the 479

0.00% - 365
resistance level (23.6%
Fibonacci retracement) will re- MOM
inforce the scenario that a Momentum 200

meaningful bottom has been
made. 100
 We therefore recommend
0
being on high alert in the US
high-yield oil & gas bond
segment. 2018 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul 2022 Jul
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; Note: BPS = basis points
25.08.2021 42
CURRENCIES: DOLLAR VS GOLD
Path of least resistance is lower gold and higher US dollar
$ USD
COMMENTS
EUR/USD
 Zooming out of the day-to-
day movements, we see that 1.30
most likely a failure to hold

above 1.22 exposes EUR/USD 1.20
to a new range of 1.11–1.16.
 Similarly, gold failing to hold 1.10
above 1,940 and rallying back
to old all-time highs indicates
lack of demand. USD
 Thus, we recommend a long 2000

position on the US dollar and Gold
1800
Bearish rating on gold, silver,
platinum, and palladium.
1600
1400
1200
1000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
25.08.2021 43
USD INDEX 

Breaks above the neckline of an inverted ‘head-and-shoulders’ bottom
$ USD $ USD
102
USD Index
100
100
95 98
96
90
94
85 92
USD Index 90
80
88
MOM MOM
Momentum
20
0
0
Momentum
-10
2015 2020 2018 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul
25.08.2021 44
EUR/USD  USD/CHF 
Breaking down – likely to re-enter Recovery intact – stay long
1.16–1.11 range
$ EUR/ USD/
CHF/USD
USD CHF
1.020
USD/CHF 1.000
1.200
EUR/USD
0.980
0.960
1.150
0.940
0.920
1.100
0.900
0.880
MOM MOM
Momentum 5
10
Momentum
0
0 -5
-10
Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul
25.08.2021 45
USD/JPY  USD/CAD 
Recovery intact – likely to rise >112 Recovery remains intact – stay long
USD/
¥/USD USD/
CAD/USD
JPY CAD
USD/JPY 125.0
USD/CAD
1.400
120.0
1.300
115.0
110.0 1.200
105.0
1.100
100.0
1.000
MOM MOM
Momentum
20 Momentum 20
0
0
-20
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2015 2020
25.08.2021 46
BITCOIN  BITCOIN CASH 
Wait to see how short-term consolidation Relative performance remains weak
evolves
REL REL
Relative to Bitcoin
5
0.1
Relative to S&P 500
USD USD
60000 1500
Bitcoin
Bitcoin Cash
50000
40000 1000
20-day 30000
MAV 20-day MAV
500
20000
100-day MAV
10000 100-day MAV
MOM MOM
0 0
Momentum
Momentum
-100
Note: Investments in virtual currencies are exposed to elevated risk of fraud and loss and to price fluctuations
25.08.2021 47
ETHEREUM  LITECOIN 
Wait to see when short-term Wait for buy signal
consolidation ends
REL REL
Relative to Bitcoin Relative to Bitcoin 0.4
0.5
0.2
USD USD
4000
Ethereum Litecoin
3000 300
2000 200
20-day MAV 20-day MAV

1000 100
100-day MAV 100-day MAV
MOM MOM
100
0
0
Momentum Momentum
Oct 2021 Apr Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul

Note: Investments in virtual currencies are exposed to elevated risk of fraud and loss and to price fluctuations
25.08.2021 48
STELLAR LUMEN 
Medium-term momentum peak – a minor
consolidation is likely
REL
Relative to Bitcoin
2.0
$ USD
Stellar Lumen 0.60
0.40
20-day MAV
0.20
100-day MAV
MOM
200
Momentum
Oct 2021 Apr Jul

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer. Note: Investments in virtual
currencies are exposed to elevated risk of fraud and loss and to price fluctuations
25.08.2021 49
CURRENCY PORTFOLIO
COMMENTS Currency Ticker Position Price

Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Stop Loss
PnL
%
Euro / Swiss franc EURCHF LONG 1.073 19 Aug 20 1.084 1.034 -1.0%
 No change. Euro / US dollar EURUSD SHORT 1.174 21 Jul 21 1.179 1.215 0.5%
US dollar / Swiss franc USDCHF LONG 0.914 21 Jul 21 0.920 0.894 -0.6%
US dollar / Canadian dollar USDCAD LONG 1.264 21 Jul 21 1.263 1.225 0.1%
British pound / US dollar GBPUSD SHORT 1.370 18 Aug 21 1.376 1.420 0.4%
Australian dollar / US dollar AUDUSD SHORT 0.725 18 Aug 21 0.724 0.759 -0.1%
Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:37
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; Note: PnL = profit and loss
25.08.2021 50
CURRENCY PORTFOLIO
Closed recommendations
Exit Entry Entry Exit PnL

Currency Ticker Position
Price Date Price Date %
Australian dollar / US dollar AUDUSD SHORT 0.725 30 Jun 21 0.750 04 Aug 21 3.3%
Euro / Offshore Chinese Renminbi EURCNH SHORT 7.670 24 Mar 21 7.720 28 Jul 21 0.7%
Swiss franc / Offshore Chinese Renminbi CHFCNH SHORT 7.102 24 Mar 21 6.973 28 Jul 21 -1.8%
Swiss france / Swedish krona CHFSEK SHORT 9.459 19 Aug 20 9.518 21 Jul 21 0.6%
US dollar / Offshore Chinese Renminbi USDCNH SHORT 6.471 26 May 21 6.384 21 Jul 21 -1.3%
US dollar / Brazilian real (carry) USDBRLCR SHORT 56.01 02 Jun 21 55.31 07 Jul 21 -1.2%
Swiss franc / Japanese yen CHFJPY LONG 119.8 28 Apr 21 119.15 30 Jun 21 0.5%
Euro / Japanese yen EURJPY LONG 131.5 28 Apr 21 131.55 30 Jun 21 -0.1%
Canadian dollar / Japanese yen CADJPY LONG 89.59 28 Apr 21 87.891 30 Jun 21 1.9%
Australian dollar / Japanese yen AUDJPY LONG 83.10 09 Jun 21 84.745 30 Jun 21 -1.9%
US dollar / Swiss franc USDCHF SHORT 0.920 19 May 21 0.9003 23 Jun 21 -2.2%
Euro / US dollar EURUSD LONG 1.192 19 May 21 1.2228 23 Jun 21 -2.5%
US dollar / Japanese yen USDJPY LONG 108.7 24 Mar 21 108.81 19 May 21 -0.1%
Euro / US dollar EURUSD SHORT 1.212 24 Mar 21 1.1828 12 May 21 -2.4%
US dollar / Swiss franc USDCHF LONG 0.915 24 Mar 21 0.9355 21 Apr 21 -2.2%
New Zealand dollar / US dollar NZDUSD SHORT 0.717 24 Mar 21 0.6983 21 Apr 21 -2.6%
British pound / Swiss franc GBPCHF LONG 1.277 10 Feb 21 1.2330 07 Apr 21 3.6%
British pound / Japanese yen GBPJPY LONG 151.1 10 Feb 21 144.95 07 Apr 21 4.3%
British pound / Australian dollar GBPAUD LONG 1.804 17 Mar 21 1.7992 07 Apr 21 0.3%
Chinese renminbi / US dollar (carry) CNYUSDCR LONG 138.8 15 Jul 20 127.95 31 Mar 21 8.5%
Euro / Japanese yen EURJPY LONG 128.8 12 Aug 20 126.02 24 Mar 21 2.2%
US dollar / Canadian dollar USDCAD SHORT 1.255 04 Nov 20 1.3143 24 Mar 21 4.7%
Russian ruble / US dollar (carry) RUBUSDCR LONG 117.4 16 Dec 20 120.42 24 Mar 21 -2.5%
US dollar / Turkish lira USDTRY SHORT 7.910 06 Jan 21 7.2870 24 Mar 21 -7.9%
Turkish lira / Euro (carry) TRYEURCR LONG 433.8 03 Feb 21 457.23 24 Mar 21 -5.1%
Turkish lira / Swiss franc (carry) TRYCHFCR LONG 370.1 03 Feb 21 380.77 24 Mar 21 -2.8%
Australian dollar / US dollar AUDUSD LONG 0.771 09 Dec 20 0.7465 17 Mar 21 3.3%
Euro / US dollar EURUSD LONG 1.195 15 Jul 20 1.1422 05 Mar 21 4.6%
US dollar / Swiss franc USDCHF SHORT 0.909 15 Jul 20 0.9424 24 Feb 21 3.7%
British pound / Chinese renminbi GBPCNH SHORT 8.899 20 Jan 21 8.8230 10 Feb 21 -0.9%
US dollar / Japanese yen USDJPY SHORT 105.1 21 Oct 20 104.49 03 Feb 21 -0.6%
Brazilian real / US dollar (carry) BRLUSDCR LONG 168.5 09 Dec 20 179.26 13 Feb 21 -6.0%
Brazilian real / Swiss franc BRLCHF LONG 0.167 04 Nov 20 0.1600 13 Jan 21 4.4%
British pound / US dollar GBPUSD LONG 1.358 21 Oct 20 1.3142 06 Jan 21 3.3%
25.08.2021 51
COMMODITIES: STOCKS VERSUS COMMODITIES
A bull on steroids
COMMENTS REL
USD
USD
 Even though the S&P

S&P 500 relative to
500/commodities ratio has risen Bloomberg Commodity Index 40
by 996% since the 2008 lows, the
recent consolidation has been
30
only mild.
 Thus, the odds are increasing
that the consolidation from last 20
year was only a consolidation in a

bull market.
10
 Therefore, we recommend being
cautious towards commodities.
MOM
50
0
Momentum
-50
2010 2015 2020
25.08.2021 52
CRUDE OIL, WTI  GOLD 
Rebound to retest breakdown – watch for Minor consolidation – wait for more
further evidence for stabilisation evidence
USD
per
$/Bbl USD
barrel
Crude oil – WTI 70

2000
(December 2021)
60 Gold
1800
50 1600
40-week MAV 1400

40
1200
30 1000
MOM MOM
Momentum 50
0
0
Momentum
-50
-50
Apr Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul Oct 2015 2020
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; WTI = West Texas Intermediate Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer
25.08.2021 53
PALLADIUM  PLATINUM 
Minor rebound below the 40-week MAV Downside risks intact – at risk of a sell-off
into year end
USD USD
3000
1600
Platinum
2500 1400
1200
2000
1000
800
Palladium 1500
(40-week MAV)
600
MOM MOM
Momentum Momentum 50
50
0
0
-50
Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul 2015 2020

25.08.2021 54
COMMODITY PORTFOLIO
COMMENTS Commodity Ticker Position Price

Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Stop Loss
PnL
%
Crude oil, WTI Dec'21 CLZ1 SHORT 66.91 18 Aug 21 65.670 69.50 -1.9%
 No change. Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:38
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; Note: PnL = profit and loss; WTI = West Texas Intermediate
25.08.2021 55
COMMODITY PORTFOLIO
Closed recommendations
Exit Entry Entry Exit PnL

Commodity Ticker Position
Price Date Price Date %
Crude oil, WTI Aug'21 CLQ1 LONG 67.42 2 Jun 21 68.08 21 Jul 21 -1.0%
Palladium XPD LONG 2750.0 20 May 20 2103.1 23 Jun 21 30.8%
Silver XAG LONG 26.000 19 May 21 27.70 23 Jun 21 -6.1%
Copper Jul'21 HGN1 LONG 441.70 12 May 21 476.20 16 Jun 21 -7.2%
Gold XAU LONG 1799.5 17 Mar 21 1729.7 16 Jun 21 4.0%
Platinum XPT LONG 1189.9 18 Nov 20 945.78 2 Jun 21 25.8%
Copper May'21 HGK1 LONG 476.15 3 Mar 21 415.50 12 May 21 14.6%
Nickel BCOMNITR LONG 329.94 10 Feb 21 374.4 14 Apr 21 -11.9%
Silver XAG LONG 24.000 2 Dec 20 23.9 31 Mar 21 0.4%
Copper Mar'21 HGH1 LONG 420.20 2 Dec 20 346.7 24 Feb 21 21.2%
Gold XAU LONG 1825.0 2 Dec 20 1823.9 20 Jan 21 0.1%
Crude oil, WTI (June 2021) CLM1 SHORT 44.30 18 Nov 20 43.24 25 Nov 20 -2.4%
Gold XAU LONG 1820.0 19 Aug 20 1984.6 25 Nov 20 -8.3%
Silver XAG LONG 23.350 15 Jul 20 19.273 25 Nov 20 21.2%
Copper Dec'20 HGZ0 LONG 305.6 19 Aug 20 303.90 28 Oct 20 0.5%
Gold / British pound XAUGBP LONG 1467.0 9 Sep 20 1497.7 21 Oct 20 -2.1%
Silver / British pound XAGGBP LONG 19.00 9 Sep 20 20.66 23 Sep 20 -8.0%
Platinum XPT LONG 860.0 16 Sep 20 972.1 23 Sep 20 -11.5%
Platinum XPT LONG 1056.9 19 Aug 20 949.7 16 Sep 20 11.3%
Natural Gas Oct'20 NGV20 LONG 2.350 19 Aug 20 2.538 9 Sep 20 -7.4%
Crude oil, WTI - Dec'20 CLZ0 LONG 43.27 1 Jul 20 39.70 19 Aug 20 9.0%
Gold / Silver XAUXAG SHORT 71.73 15 Jul 20 93.97 19 Aug 20 31.0%
Platinum XPT SHORT 835.1 13 May 20 765.1 27 May 20 -8.4%
UBS Bloomberg CMCI WTI Crude TR CTWCTR LONG 380.0 1 Apr 20 422.3 22 Apr 20 -10.0%
Palladium / Platinum XPDXPT LONG 2.40 23 Mar 16 0.608 18 Mar 20 294%
Palladium / Silver XPDXAG LONG 110.0 21 Dec 16 41.25 18 Mar 20 167%
Palladium / Gold XPDXAU LONG 1.200 9 Nov 16 0.527 18 Mar 20 128%
Palladium XPDUSD LONG 1900 19 Sep 18 1028 18 Mar 20 85%
S&P 500 / Gold .SPXXAU LONG 1.852 30 Oct 19 2.037 4 Mar 20 -9.1%
Silver XAG SHORT 18.25 29 Jan 20 17.46 19 Feb 20 -4.4%
Silver XAG SHORT 18.50 11 Dec 19 16.81 8 Jan 20 -9.1%
Platinum XPT SHORT 915.0 14 Aug 19 854.7 29 Aug 19 -6.6%
WTI crude oil BCOMCLTR LONG 161.2 10 Jul 19 184.1 7 Aug 19 -12.4%
Platinum XPT SHORT 874.1 26 Jun 19 814.5 24 Jul 19 -6.8%
Platinum XPT SHORT 815.0 24 Apr 19 886.5 4 Apr 19 8.8%
WTI crude oil / Gold .WTIXAU LONG 0.571 24 Apr 19 0.655 29 May 19 -12.9%
Gold / British pound XAUGBP SHORT 987.8 27 Feb 19 993.6 8 May 19 0.6%
Silver / British pound XAGGBP SHORT 11.44 27 Feb 19 11.84 8 May 19 3.5%
Platinum PLAT SHORT 899.7 11 Jan 17 962.7 10 Apr 19 7.0%
25.08.2021 56
APPENDIX
Additional information on equity portfolios
Concentrated portfolio
We track an unconstrained concentrated portfolio which uses passive instruments to invest (indices) in a theoretical portfolio of USD
1,000,000 as of 18 March 2015. The portfolio is denominated in US dollars and can invest in indices based on equities, bonds, currencies
and alternatives. Weights can be up to 70% in commodities. The portfolio aims for absolute returns and has no benchmark.
Global equities portfolio

We track an unconstrained global equities portfolio with a theoretical value of USD 1,000,000 as of 21 November 2011. The most
convincing equities are combined in a concentrated portfolio of up to 30 individual positions. A position can have an initial weight of
5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of
the recommendation.
European equities portfolio

We track an unconstrained European equities portfolio with a theoretical value of EUR 1,000,000 as of 1 April 2015. The most
convincing equities are combined in a concentrated portfolio of up to 30 individual positions. A position can have an initial weight of
5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of
the recommendation.
Swiss equities portfolio

We track an unconstrained Swiss equities portfolio with a theoretical value of CHF 1,000,000 as of 17 July 2013. The most convincing
equities are combined in a concentrated portfolio of up to 30 individual positions. A position can have an initial weight of 5%. The
overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the
recommendation.
25.08.2021 57
APPENDIX
Additional information on equity portfolios
APAC (Asia-Pacific) equities portfolio

We track an unconstrained APAC equities portfolio with a theoretical value of USD 1,000,000 as of 16 July 2014. The most convincing
equities are combined in a concentrated portfolio of up to 30 individual positions. A position can have an initial weight of 5%. The
overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the
recommendation.
US oversold portfolio (short-term)

We track a portfolio buying oversold large-cap stocks with a starting theoretical value of USD 1,000,000 as of 3 September 2012, which
is rebalanced once a month. A position can have an initial weight of 6.67%. PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage
of the recommendation.
EU oversold portfolio (short-term)

We track a portfolio buying oversold large-cap stocks with a starting theoretical value of EUR 1,000,000 as of 30 March 2016, which is
rebalanced once a month. A position can have an initial weight of 6.67%. PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of
the recommendation.
25.08.2021 58
CHART TYPES
Point & Figure charts
$USD
POINT & FIGURE CHART
 Two letters of the alphabet are used in this method of charting,
‘X’ and ‘O’. The X represents demand. The O represents supply.
 The key to this chart method is how it moves from one column to 3200
the next. We use the 3-point reversal method.
 This means that the only way a column of X’s can change to
3100
a column of O’s is by reversing three boxes. The same
three-box reversal method is applied to the column of O’s.
 The Point & Figure (P&F) chart eliminates ‘noise’ out of the 3000
equation: S&P 500
 For example, if a stock were trading in a column of X’s with (Box size: 15 / Reversal: 3)
a top of 45, it would take a move to 42 to reverse this chart 2900
to a column of O’s.
 The values of the boxes (i.e. box sizes) used in constructing the
2800
chart depend on the security price:
 Between 5 and 20, the box size is ½ point per box.
 Between 20 and 100, the box size is 1 point per box. 2700
 Above 100, the box size rises to 2 points per box.

 Since P&F charts never connect prices, the angle for a Bullish 2600
Support Line is always 45 degrees, while the angle for a Bearish
Resistance Line is always a 135-degree angle.
8 14 May 12 Jun 15 Jul 29 Aug
25.08.2021 59
CHART TYPES
Line, Bar and Candle charts
LINE CHART Line chart 3250

 The line chart represents the most basic
information, it connects the closing prices. 3000
BAR CHART 2750
2500
 The bar chart shows four different inputs:
opening, highest, lowest and closing prices. 2250
Open
Bar chart
 The opening price is a tick to the left and the
High
closing price a tick to the right. 3250
CANDLE CHART 3000
 Similar to the bar chart, this chart also shows 2750
opening, highest, lowest and closing prices.

2500
Low
 Additionally, there is a body of the candle,
Close 2250
which can be white or black.
 A white candle indicates a period where the High
Candle chart Open 3250
closing price is higher than the opening price.
3000
 A black candle indicates a period where the
closing price is below the opening price. 2750
Close
 Candlestick charts offer more information as 2500
the demand for the day is seen immediately i.e.
buying or selling from the opening price. Low 2250
Q4 2019 Q2 Q3 Q4 2020 Q2 Q3 Q4
25.08.2021 60
HOW TO READ CHARTS
Example of Euro Stoxx 50
RELATIVE CHART WINDOW

 We look at a ratio between two instruments, e.g. Euro Stoxx
50 versus the MSCI World.
 The level itself is not relevant; what is relevant is whether the
ratio is rising (outperformance) or declining
(underperformance).
PRICE CHART
 We chart the underlying instrument’s price.
 We aim to read the price trend of the underlying instrument
and therefore may add an indicator, e.g. the moving average
(MAV) of the price.
MOMENTUM
 We calculate a momentum indicator based on the underlying
instrument.
 The focus is on the indicator’s turning points, not on the
values themselves.
NOTE ON PAST PERFORMANCE AND FX RISKS

 Past performance and performance forecasts are not reliable
indicators of future results.
 The return may increase or decrease as a result of currency
fluctuations.
25.08.2021 61
APPENDIX
Long-term charts since 2012
$ USD $ USD € EUR CHF

CHF
S&P 500 4000 DAX SMIM

Russell 2000 2000
14000 3000
12000 2500
3000
1500
10000 2000
2000 8000
1000 1500
6000 1000
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
$ USD € EUR CHF

CHF ¥ JPY
4000 SMI
Nasdaq 100
25000
3500
10000
10000
20000
3000
8000
15000
5000 2500
Euro Stoxx 50 Nikkei 225
10000
6000
2000
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
25.08.2021 62
APPENDIX
€ EUR MSCI $ USD

Hang Seng
HKD
HKD $ USD
Emerging Nasdaq
CAC 40 5000
Markets Biotechnology
6000 30000
1200 4000
5000
25000 3000
1000
4000
2000
800 20000
3000
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
£ GBP HKD
HKD $ USD
2200 MSCI China Philadelphia

120
Semiconductors 3000
2000 100
2000
1800 80
1000
MSCI United 1600 60
Kingdom
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
25.08.2021 63
APPENDIX
JPY/
$ EUR/ ¥/USD
USD $/Bbl
USD USD
USD
EUR/USD 120 70 Platinum

1500
1.30
110 60
1.20 100
50
1000
90 WTI
1.10 USD/JPY crude oil 40
80 (Aug. 2021)
2015 2020 2015 2020 2020 2015 2020
USD/
CHF/USD USD/
CAD/USD USD
CAD USD
CHF
1.4
1.0 Gold Palladium
1.3
2000
1.2 1500
0.9 1.1
1000
USD/CAD
USD/CHF 1.0
2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020 2015 2020
25.08.2021 64
25.08.2021 65
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION
Imprint and appendix
This document constitutes financial/investment research material and is the

result of independent financial/investment research. It has been prepared in
APPENDIX
accordance with the legal requirements regarding the independence of Analyst certification
financial/investment research and is subject to any prohibition on dealing The analysts hereby certify that views about the companies discussed in this report
ahead of the dissemination of financial/investment research. It has been accurately reflect their personal view about the companies and securities. They
produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and further certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or
regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), save indirectly linked to the specific recommendations or views in this report.
in respect of analyses and recommendations expressly identified in this
report as being made by an independent third party from Bank Julius Baer & Methodology
Co. Ltd., Zurich. This document series is issued regularly. Information on Please refer to the following link for more information on the research methodology
financial instruments and issuers will be updated irregularly or in response to used by Julius Baer analysts:
important events. www.juliusbaer.com/research-methodology
Structure
IMPRINT
.
References in this document to Julius Baer include subsidiaries and affiliates. For
additional information on our structure, please refer to the following link:
Authors www.juliusbaer.com/structure
Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, mensur.pocinci@juliusbaer.com 1
Alexis Chassagnade, Technical Analyst, alexis.chassagnade@juliusbaer.com 1 Price information
Unless otherwise stated, the price information reflects the closing price of the
1 This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is previous trading day.
authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority
(FINMA). Disclosure
Roche Holding: Julius Baer holds > 0.5% net short position of the total issued
share capital.
BB Biotech: Julius Baer and/or its affiliates makes a market in the securities of the
subject company BB Biotech discussed in this publication.
66
Technical Analysis
The information and opinions expressed were produced by Julius Baer Technical Rating system for global technical analysis (absolute)
Analysis as of date of writing and are subject to change without notice. Julius Baer Buy/ Expected to advance by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months,
conducts primary technical analysis aimed at creating value through investment Bullish unless otherwise stated.
recommendations. Technical Analysis uses historic market prices in order to assess
market conditions. The historic data is analysed by chart reading i.e. by following Hold/ Expected to perform in line (±5%) in the coming 3-12 months, unless
chart patterns and interpreting indicators calculated from historic price Neutral otherwise stated.
movements. Reduce/ Expected to decline by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months, unless
Technical Analysis may be inconsistent with and reach different conclusions Bearish otherwise stated.
to fundamental analysis. It may vary at any time due to the different tools used
to assess market conditions and recommendations. Besides individual investment
Rating system for global technical analysis (relative)
recommendations, Technical Analysis also publishes technical indicator readings,
which are mechanically calculated and only provide additional information to large Over- Expected to outperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-12
sets of data, and are not intended as investment recommendations. These tables weight months, unless otherwise stated.
show current trends on an absolute price or relative basis using up, flat and Neutral Expected to perform in line (±5%) against its benchmark in the coming 3-
downward pointing arrows. At the same time, support and resistance levels might 12 months, unless otherwise stated.
be displayed which are calculated using Bollinger Bands. Under- Expected to underperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-
weight 12 months, unless otherwise stated.
Frequently used abbreviations
C Closing price H High price L Low price
Technical analysis recommendation history
ST Short-term (2-8 MT Medium-term (8- LT Long-term (> 26 For the history of Technical Analysis equity recommendations over the previous 12
weeks) 26 weeks) weeks) months please view the document at:
MAV Moving average https://www.juliusbaer.com/en/legal/technical-analysis/
Bolling- The middle Bollinger band is a 20 day simple moving average, the higher
erband and lower bands are calculated as a 20-day simple moving average plus or
minus two standard deviations on a 20-day period.
Mo- Momentum is derived from different rate of change calculations based on
men- the underlying instrument.
tum
67
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as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. This document is are clearly marked as such. All information and data used for this document relate
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TECHNICAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY (TIS)

Mensur Pocinci, MFTA

 There are two ways how markets

500: after a strong Momentum 100

 We see the bull run resuming

Nasdaq 100 rel. gold 8

investors (gold and bonds) as 6

Nasdaq 100 rel. US treasury bonds 3

2020 Apr Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul

 The Nasdaq 100 is 25

calling for a neutral exposure to

Nasdaq 100 rel. US oil &

2020 Apr Jul Oct 2021 Apr Jul

 Apple, Microsoft and Amazon Apple relative to MSCI World 1.0

 Microsoft is already at new all-

 The consolidation in Microsoft relative to MSCI World 2.0

Amazon relative to MSCI World

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Alphabet relative to MSCI World 20

 The consolidation in Tesla is an

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

COMMENTS S&P 500: SHORT AND MEDIUM-TERM TREND-FOLLOWING

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

2020 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021 Jul

Relative to MSCI World 4.0

Nasdaq 100 14000 Russell 2000

Relative to MSCI World

Swiss Market Index (SMI) SMIM

MSCI United Kingdom 1600

Nikkei 225 30000

MSCI China Hang Seng

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer; S = support, R = resistance

Materials 07 Jul 21  07 Jul 21  07 Jul 21  73 28.2 -2.3

Industrials 14 Jul 21  14 Jul 21  14 Jul 21  72 30.4 1.6

Consumer cyclical 19 Sep 20  07 Feb 18  16 Sep 20  64 25.2 3.0

Consumer defensive 18 Sep 19  18 Sep 19  18 Sep 19  64 11.0 0.4

Healthcare 18 Aug 21  18 Aug 21  10 Mar 21  76 23.0 9.5

Financials 23 Jun 21  23 Jun 21  23 Jun 21  88 44.1 0.5

Information technology 16 Sep 15  16 Sep 15  17 May 17  81 33.1 13.7

Communications 13 Jan 21  07 Jul 21  10 Mar 21  73 33.9 6.9

Utilities 05 Aug 20  05 Aug 20  10 Mar 21  82 12.7 2.3

World equities (USD) 76 28.9 5.3

Data as of: 25/08/2021 15:26

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

COMMENTS Rating 2 % Return

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

COMMENTS Name Ticker

CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE (SINCE INCEPTION, IN USD)

KEY FACTS AND FIGURES (%)

Relative to MSCI World Relative to MSCI World

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index

Relative to MSCI World 1.0

Momentum Momentum 200

2015 2020 2005 2010 2015 2020

Relative to MSCI World 2.0

Nasdaq Biotechnology 5000

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

Closing # of Entry PnL

America and JPMorgan Chase. Applied Materials

COMMENTS Stocks to sell or stopped out

Relative to MSCI World Relative to MSCI World

CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE (SINCE INCEPTION, IN USD)

KEY FACTS AND FIGURES (%)