Six megatrends that will shape the world by 2050

Trend
Compendium
2050
Six megatrends
that will shape the world
December 2020
The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 focuses on stable long term
developments …
> The Roland Berger Trend Compendium 2050 is a global trend study compiled by Roland Berger Institute (RBI),
the think tank of Roland Berger. Our Trend Compendium 2050 describes the most important megatrends shaping the
world between now and 2050
> Our trend views are based on expert sources and assessments. Estimates reflect the normal case, i.e. a stable
development of the global economy
> To incorporate today's uncertainties into strategic planning, we recommend combining the megatrends of the Roland
Berger Trend Compendium 2050 with the Roland Berger scenario planning approach
Is it worth dealing with megatrends when there are such drastic global events as
the Corona pandemic taking place?
Clearly yes! The Corona pandemic has far-reaching consequences and affects us deeply, all within a very
short time – but in itself the pandemic does not set aside the megatrends here analyzed. Such is the inherent
nature of megatrends: Climate change, the aging of society or the ongoing evolution of technology do not lose
their overriding direction or importance. To cope with such challenges – and to master resulting opportunities –
our awareness and understanding of these megatrends is paramount in order to develop sustainable answers
2 2
… and covers six megatrends that shape the future development of our
world until 2050
1
People &
2
Health
3
Environment
4
Economics
5
Technology
6
Politics &
Society & Care & Resources & Business & Innovation Governance
Population Pandemics & Climate Change Globalization Value of Future of

Other Wildcards & Pollution Revisited Technology Democracy
Migration
Diseases & Resources & Power Shifts Artificial Governance &
Values Treatments Raw Materials Intelligence Geopolitics
Sectoral
Education Caregiving Ecosystems Transformation Humans & Global Risks
at Risk Machines
Debt Challenge
3 3
Megatrend 1
People & Society
4
Trend overview
People & Beyond mere demographics, people and society are at the core of our
Society
1. Population thinking – People are on the move, rely on values and are eager to learn
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "People & Society"
Health &
Care
1 2 3 4
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards
2. Diseases & Treatments
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
1. Climate Change & Pollution
2. Resources & Raw Materials
3. Ecosystems at Risk
Economics
& Business
1. Globalization Revisited
2. Power Shifts
3. Sectoral Transformation
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
Population Migration Values Education

1. Value of Technology
2. Artificial Intelligence
3. Humans & Machines
Politics &
Governance
1. Future of Democracy
2. Governance & Geopolitics
3. Global Risks
5
Trend overview
People & Population trends toward 2050 point at a myriad of changes across the
Society
1. Population globe – For continents and countries, their growth rates and age structures
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global population trends – Selected facts & figures
Health &
Care Despite global
World population aging, huge
3. Caregiving
growth is fueled by differences in the
growth in less median age of
Environment developed countries.
& Resources countries persist in
Population in 2050: Niger: 19.0
Sub-Saharan years vs. South Around 2027,
Africa will Our world is aging. Korea: 56.5 India is expected to
Economics In 2050, 1.9
double from In 2050 there will overtake China as the
& Business billion more 2020 to 2050
be more than 1.5 world's most
2. Power Shifts people will inhabit
3. Sectoral Transformation our planet
billion people aged populous
65+ years
4. Debt Challenge
(2020: 7.8 billion
(2020: 727 million)
country. In 2050
Technology 2050: 9.7 billion) India will have more
& Innovation and 3.2 million than 1.6 billion
1. Value of Technology aged 100+ inhabitants
Politics & Standing side by side, the predicted 9.7 billion strong population of 2050 would span the equator
Governance
more than 240 times. However, average global population density will only rise to 71 people per
2. Governance & Geopolitics sq km1) – a quarter of the population density of the United Kingdom today
3. Global Risks
1) Calculated with the Earth's land area without Antarctica
6 Sources: UN Population Division; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & The rate of population growth is decreasing due to lower fertility rates –
Society
1. Population In 2050, a vast majority of the 9.7 billion will live in less developed regions
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Evolution of world population Global population characteristics > According to the UN medium variant
Health & 1950-2100 [bn] 2050 [%] prediction, the world population will
Care grow at a slower pace between 2020
and 2050 compared to previous
2100: Economic origin 13% Less developed regions decades, reaching a population of 9.7
3. Caregiving 10.9 bn of inhabitants
87%
Developed regions billion in 2050
Environment > The evolution of the world population is
& Resources driven by two factors: The evolution of
1. Climate Change & Pollution fertility rates and the evolution of life
2. Resources & Raw Materials expectancy
2050: Residential area
of inhabitants1) 68%
32% Rural
Urban
– Global fertility rates are expected to
decrease from 2.5 births per woman
2020:
Economics
& Business 7.8 bn 9.7 bn in 2020 to 2.2 births per woman in
2050. This lowers the rate of
2. Power Shifts
population growth
16%
– Average life expectancy is expected
4. Debt Challenge 21% 0-14 to increase from 72.3 years in 2020 to
Age of
inhabitants
15-64 76.8 years in 2050. This drives
Technology 63% 65+ population growth, but cannot totally
& Innovation compensate for decreasing fertility
rates
3. Humans & Machines > In 2050, the majority of the global
population will stem from less
Politics & 1950: Life expectancy 20% 26% <70
developed regions, resides in urban
Governance 2.5 bn at birth
70-80
>80
areas is between 15 and 64 years old
1. Future of Democracy 54% and has a life expectancy of 70-80 years
1950 2000 2050 2100
3. Global Risks
1) The definition of urban areas follows the definitions that are used in each country
7 Source: UN Population Division
Trend overview
People & Over the next three decades, Africa's population will increase by more than
Society
1. Population 1.1 billion – Asia still remains the world's population giant
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Population by continent Top five countries per region by population
Health & 2020 and 2050 [m] 2050 [m]1)
Care
9,733
3. Caregiving Asia Asia India China Pakistan Indonesia Bangladesh
Africa 1,639 1,402 338 331 193
Environment
& Resources 7,796 LatAm/Caribbean
Africa Nigeria Ethiopia D.R. Congo Egypt Tanzania
Europe 401 205 194 160 129
2. Resources & Raw Materials 5,290
3. Ecosystems at Risk Northern America
Economics Oceania LatAm/ Brazil Mexico Colombia Argentina Peru
& Business 4,641 Caribbean 229 155 56 55 40
2. Power Shifts
Europe Russia Germany UK France Italy
136 80 74 68 54
4. Debt Challenge
2,489
Technology Northern USA Canada
1,341
& Innovation America 379 46
2. Artificial Intelligence 748 762
3. Humans & Machines 710 Oceania Australia Papua N. New
654 33 Guinea 14 Zealand 6
425
Politics & 43 369 57
Governance
2020 2050
3. Global Risks
1) Only countries with at least 5 million inhabitants are included
Trend overview
People & All regions are aging with fewer people of working age having to support
Society
1. Population more older people – Intercontinental differences remain significant
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Median age [years] and old-age potential support ratio by region > A low old-age support
Health & 2020 vs. 2050 [people 20-64 / people 65+] ratio can have severe
Care consequences for
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards countries if a large
2. Diseases & Treatments proportion of state
3. Caregiving expenditure is allocated to
47.1 e.g. health and social
Environment 38.6 43.0 42.5 security, which is being
& Resources 3.5 2.4 3.1 1.9 39.9
1. Climate Change & Pollution 32.0 taken up to a greater extent
6.8 3.2 by older members of
Northern America Europe
3. Ecosystems at Risk society
Asia > However, this ratio ignores
Economics
& Business that people above the age
1. Globalization Revisited of 65 are not necessarily
2. Power Shifts dependent on support as a
3. Sectoral Transformation rising proportion is in work;
4. Debt Challenge reversely not all of those
considered of working age
Technology 24.8 9.2 are actually working
40.8 19.7 13.0
& Innovation 31.0
1. Value of Technology 6.6 3.1
2. Artificial Intelligence Africa 33.4
4.4
37.2
3.1
Latin America
Politics &
Governance
and the Caribbean Oceania
3. Global Risks
Median age: 2020 2050 Old-age potential support ratio: 2020 2050
Trend overview
People & International net migration flows between regions are expected to be on a
Society
1. Population high level toward 2050 – This reflects only one of many aspects of migration
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Cumulative net Interregional and Migrants within > According to the UN, "international
Health & interregional migration intraregional migrants countries (IDPs3) stock) migrants are defined as either living
Care flows 2020-20501) [m] (stock) 20192) [m] 2019 [m] in a country other than their country
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards of birth or in a country other than
66.9 144.5 50.8 their country of citizenship"
3. Caregiving
Oceania 4.4 Oceania 3.2 1.1 Somalia 2.6 > The majority of international migrants
10.0 (total number of interregional/
Environment Northern America Nigeria 2.7
& Resources Europe 24.2 Sub-Saharan Africa Yemen 3.6 intraregional migrants 2019: 144.5/
17.9 115.8
1. Climate Change & Pollution 1.1 1.4
115.8 million) are not refugees or
Northern Africa and Afghanistan 4.2
2. Resources & Raw Materials Western Asia 8.2 asylum seekers having left their home
Europe
19.2 country due to conflicts, persecution
11.7 Colombia 5.6
Northern
38.3 or similar but are defined as migrating
Economics America
14.3 Dem. Rep. for better economic, educational or
& Business Eastern and 5.7
22.8 Congo other reasons
South-Eastern Asia
2. Power Shifts
18.3 > In 2017 there have been 29 million
Syria 6.5
3. Sectoral Transformation international refugees and asylum
4. Debt Challenge LatAm/Caribbean 32.2 18.9 seekers globally. 13.1 million lived in
Asia -48.5 Northern Africa and Western Asia, 5.9
Technology million in Sub-Saharan Africa, 3.6
& Innovation Others 19.8 million each in Europe and Central and
Africa Central and 41.9 Southern Asia, with 2.5 million in
38.1
LatAm/ -12.7 Southern Asia other regions
Caribbean -5.8 > IDPs are refugees who stay within
Politics & their own country. 2019, the majority
-66.9 Inter- Intra- of IDPs (45.7 million) fled conflicts
Governance regional regional
1. Future of Democracy and violence, the remaining 5.1
2. Governance & Geopolitics million fled disasters
3. Global Risks
1) Interregional migration includes only migration between regions; data are based on UN medium variant forecast
2) Intraregional migration includes only migration between countries within a region 3) IDPs: internally displaced people
10 Sources: UN Population Division; IOM; Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre/Norwegian Refugee Council
Trend overview
People & Without global action to 2050, up to 143 million internal climate migrants
Society
1. Population are projected for Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Internal climate migrants in selected regions 2050 according to World Bank's pessimistic scenario
Health &
Care > Global climate and environmental
migration forecasts to 2050 range
3. Caregiving
widely, from 25 million to 1 billion people
> The majority of climate migrants will
Environment become internally displaced, i.e. they
& Resources will be forced to move within their own
country due to increasing climate change
impacts such as rising sea levels, crop
failure, water stress etc.
Economics > In a pessimistic scenario (high green-
& Business house gas emissions combined with
unequal development pathways), the
2. Power Shifts
World Bank expects 143 million internal
4. Debt Challenge
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia Latin America climate migrants in Sub-Saharan Africa,
86 40 17
South Asia, and Latin America
Technology > According to World Bank estimates, the
& Innovation million million million global community could manage to
1. Value of Technology lower the number of people forced to
move due to climate change by 80% if
we manage to cut greenhouse gases,
embed climate migration in development
Politics &
Governance World Bank: "Climate migration is the human planning, and invest to improve
understanding of internal climate
face of climate change"
2. Governance & Geopolitics migration in the first place
3. Global Risks
11 Sources: World Bank; IOM

Trend overview
People & According to the UN 1 in 10 children are subjected to

Society
1. Population everyone is entitled 140 (now 196) countries ratify UN
Convention on the Rights of the Child 1990 2020s
child labor worldwide – COVID-19
disrupts an otherwise encouraging
to all human rights
2. Migration
downward trend
3. Values
and freedoms – In
4. Education
Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar human More than 740,000 Rohingya Muslim
Health & rights activist and political figure refugees flee to Bangladesh after
2017
Care
reality, achieving head, is awarded the Nobel Peace
prize
1991 2017 violent persecution in Myanmar –
condoned by Aung San Suu Kyi
3. Caregiving
these entitlements
Environment is mixed and fraught Australia allows nonbinary and Around the world, at least 15
2020
intersex people to obtain passports 2000 2020 countries criminalize being
& Resources
with setbacks with the nonbinary gender marker X transgender
Human rights: Selection of
"I can't breathe": George Floyd is
Economics significant developments Barack Obama becomes the first
2020
& Business black president of the United States 2008 2020 brutally killed by police, sparking
violent protests and social unrest
2. Power Shifts
Universal Declaration of Saudi male guardianship still applies
4. Debt Challenge King Salman reforms male guardian-
Human Rights 1948: Article 2 2017 vis-a-vis permission to marry, work,
2020
ship: Saudi women are allowed to 2020
Technology drive and to hold passports -2018 study, prison release or to seek
& Innovation medical care
"Everyone is entitled to all the rights and
2. Artificial Intelligence freedoms set forth in this Declaration,
Donald Trump's administration begins
3. Humans & Machines without distinction of any kind, such Greta Thunberg's Fridays for Future: process to withdraw the US from the
2019
as race, color, sex, language, First global climate strike takes place 2018 2019 2015 Paris climate agreement, taking
Politics &
Governance religion, political or other opinion, effect in November 2020
1. Future of Democracy national or social origin, property,
3. Global Risks
birth or other status (…)"
12 Sources: Roland Berger; UNHCR; ILGA; Human Dignity Trust

Trend overview
People & The evolution of human freedoms paints a mixed picture –

Society
1. Population How will global values be shaped in the future?
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Human Freedom Index 2019
Health & What to look out for toward 2050
Care
Through to 2050, the global consensus on values
3. Caregiving based on human rights and personal, civil and economic
freedoms will shift alongside the global power shift.
Environment
Changes in values and beliefs, in geo-political power,
& Resources
1. Climate Change & Pollution socio-economic evolution, and technology denote what lies
2. Resources & Raw Materials ahead. Selected push-and-pull factors include:
> Whether emerging middle classes grow and
Economics whether they push for more rights (even if not full
& Business democracy) as historically has been the case – or not
2. Power Shifts > If rising powers approach protecting human
rights (also beyond their borders) and adjust their own
4. Debt Challenge
self-determination policies – or not
Technology
> How bottom-up technologies that enhance
& Innovation
1. Value of Technology Less free – the trajectory of global human freedom: Since 2008, the level of global freedom evolve vis-a-vis top-down surveillance and
2. Artificial Intelligence freedom has decreased slightly with 79 countries decreasing their level of freedom information control
and 61 countries in this index (a composite of 50% personal and 50% economic key > If the Internet remains an unfettered information
Politics & indicators) increasing their ratings. In particular, personal freedom indicators
declined markedly vis-à-vis a significant increase in economic freedom
conduit – or not
Governance
3. Global Risks Less freedom More freedom No data
13 Sources: Roland Berger; Cato Institute; Foresight Alliance

Trend overview
People & Educational attainment has come a long way – Staying in education longer
Society
1. Population is now the new global norm and still growing to 2050
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Educational attainment of global adult population1) [share in %, total in bn]
Health &
Care 56%
2. Diseases & Treatments 51%
3. Caregiving
41%
Environment
& Resources 29%
1. Climate Change & Pollution 25%
22% 20%
3. Ecosystems at Risk 16% 13%
13%
Economics 8%
& Business
6%
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
1990: 3.6 bn 2020: 5.8 bn 2050: 7.9 bn
& Innovation
2. Artificial Intelligence > Our world will be inhabited by more and more educated people as the share of people with no education decreases continuously
> By 2050, only five countries are predicted to have a share of non-educated people that is >20%: Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Guinea, Mali, and Niger
Politics & > The changing level of educational attainment comes with changing attitudes towards education, more public investments, and new methods, such
Governance as the opportunity to study through online courses without the requirement of physical presence
3. Global Risks No Education Primary Secondary Post Secondary
1) People >15 years
14 Sources: Roland Berger; Wittgenstein Centre
Trend overview
People & Globally speaking, it pays to stay in education longer, too – Length of
Society
1. Population education and financial prosperity correlate positively
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Average number of years of education completed in 2020
Health & related to GDP per capita PPP in 20191) [years, USD]
Care
2. Diseases & Treatments GDP per capita PPP [USD]
3. Caregiving
70,000
Environment Norway
& Resources 60,000 USA Germany
2. Resources & Raw Materials Australia
3. Ecosystems at Risk 50,000 France UK
Economics Israel Korea Japan
& Business 40,000 Italy
2. Power Shifts 30,000 Turkey Russia
4. Debt Challenge Argentina
20,000 China
Technology Brazil
World
Albania
& Innovation India Colombia Indonesia
10,000 Pakistan
Central African Rep. Nigeria
Congo, D.R.
3. Humans & Machines 0
Politics & 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Governance Years of education
3. Global Risks
1) Number of years of education completed by people aged 25+ (medium variant). PPP stands for purchasing power parity. They are taken into consideration to create comparability across countries.
Here measured in current international dollar
15 Sources: Roland Berger; Wittgenstein Centre; World Bank
Megatrend 2
Health & Care
16
Trend overview
People & It doesn't stop at pandemics: Together, policy makers and health experts
Society
1. Population have to find solutions for myriad health and caregiving challenges
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "Health & Care"
Health &
Care
1 2 3
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
Economics
& Business
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
2. Artificial Intelligence Pandemics & Diseases & Care-
Other Wildcards Treatments giving
Politics &
Governance
3. Global Risks
17
Trend overview
People & The scale of human tragedy along with the deep economic downturn due to
Society
1. Population COVID-19 demonstrates how vulnerable the world is to pandemics
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Annual growth of global GDP [%] COVID-19 is not the first epidemic in the 21st
Health & century ...
Care
2. Diseases & Treatments 2003: SARS
3. Caregiving 37 countries affected
Environment Average 9,100 infected
& Resources growth 1980- 922 deaths 2009: H1N1 (Swine Flu)
1. Climate Change & Pollution 2020: 169 countries affected
741,000 infected
3. Ecosystems at Risk 3.3% 2012: MERS 18,449 deaths
28 countries affected
Economics
& Business 2,600 infected
871 deaths 2014: Ebola
1. Globalization Revisited Global Financial Crisis 10 countries affected
2. Power Shifts
3. Sectoral Transformation 28,600 infected
4. Debt Challenge 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2015: ZIKA 11,312 deaths
55 countries affected
Technology 750,000 infected
& Innovation
45 deaths 2020: SARS-CoV-21)
1. Value of Technology 191 countries affected
> 64,000,000 infected
COVID-19 Pandemic > 1,500,000 deaths
Politics &
Governance
… and is unlikely to remain the last
3. Global Risks
-4.4%
1) As of December 3, 2020
18 Sources: IMF; WHO; FII Institute; Johns Hopkins University; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & But pandemics are not the only threat to global health – Numerous other
Society
1. Population challenges lie ahead on the way toward 2050
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Selected global health challenges
Health &
Care
1 2 3 4 5
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
The climate crisis Anti-microbial Putting new Providing global Closing the global
as a health crisis resistance (AMR) technology to use access to medicines health care gap
Economics
& Business > Air pollution kills > Due to unregulated > Genome editing, > One third of the global > People in wealthier
approx. 7 million prescription practices synthetic biology, and population lacks countries on average
2. Power Shifts
people every year and the overuse of digital health access to medicines, live 18 years longer
4. Debt Challenge > Climate change antibiotics (among technologies such as vaccines, and than people in poorer
causes more other factors), AMR is artificial intelligence diagnostic tools countries
Technology
extreme weather rising, jeopardizing help to prevent, > Improving access to > It is paramount to
& Innovation achievements of diagnose, and treat
events exacerbating medication while improve access to
malnutrition and the modern medicine diseases ensuring its quality primary care which
3. Humans & Machines spread of infectious > Both a more targeted > Their use should be also requires fighting addresses the
diseases use of antibiotics and encouraged while sub-standard and majority of a patient's
Politics & the development of being carefully rogue products health needs
Governance
new antibiotics are monitored
key
3. Global Risks
19 Sources: WHO; Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & To manage these challenges, future health care spending is set to increase
Society
1. Population but the gap between high and low income countries persists
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Health spending per capita [USD, PPP]
Health &
Care
2016 – Selected countries 2016 – Income groups1) 2050 – Income groups1)
3. Caregiving
Environment Central African

37
& Resources Republic
125 207
2. Resources & Raw Materials Afghanistan 200
Economics India 246

& Business 274 675
Morocco 500
2. Power Shifts
x 45 x 43
4. Debt Challenge China 808
1.009 2.858
Technology
& Innovation Brazil 1.864
Germany 5.619
5.621 8.812
Politics & USA 10.271
Governance
3. Global Risks Low income Lower-middle income Upper-middle income High income
1) Population-weighted averages
20 Sources: Global Burden of Disease Health Financing Collaborator Network; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Globally, more than half of deaths are due to 9 diseases plus road injuries –
Society
1. Population Diseases of civilization and age such as dementia see strongest rises
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education The 10 leading causes of deaths, world, 2016 and 2045 [% of all deaths]
Health &
Care
2016 2045 > In 2016 the 10 leading causes of deaths have
been responsible for 53% of all deaths
13% Ischemic heart disease globally. By 2045, this number is expected to
3. Caregiving 17% Ischemic heart disease
increase to 59%. With the exception of road
Environment injuries all of these causes are diseases
& Resources > Diseases of civilization and age, like ischemic
heart disease, COPD, Alzheimer's or diabetes
prevail. Due to demographic trends such as the
3. Ecosystems at Risk 12% Stroke aging of society, the rise of the global middle
11% Stroke
Economics class, and an ongoing shift in lifestyles (e.g.
& Business more meat consumption, more sedentary etc.)
1. Globalization Revisited the dominance of such diseases is growing
2. Power Shifts 6% Lower respiratory infections 6% Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
> Alzheimer disease and other forms of
dementia – notably not among the top ten
4. Debt Challenge
6% Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 6% Alzheimer disease and other dementia leading causes of deaths in 2016 – will climb to
Technology fourth position in 2045, responsible for 6% of
& Innovation 3% Diarrhoeal diseases 4% Lower respiratory infections all deaths globally
3% HIV/AIDS > Cancer (malignant neoplasms) is responsible
4% Diabetes mellitus for 16% of global deaths in 2016 and 18% in
3. Humans & Machines 3% Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers
Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers 2045 (expected). It is not listed in the 10
3%
Politics & 3% Diabetes mellitus Kidney diseases leading causes of deaths as the WHO
3% calculates the share for each single form of
Governance 3% Road injury
2% Cirrhosis of the liver
1. Future of Democracy 2% Hypertensive heart disease 2% Road injury cancer. With 1.5% (2016) resp. 1.7% (2045)
2. Governance & Geopolitics liver cancer causes the most cancer deaths
47% Other 41% Other
3. Global Risks
21 Sources: WHO; Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & Between fiction and prediction: Advances in healthcare are subject to many
Society
1. Population expectations – But not all will materialize by 2050
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Likelihood and impact of selected health predictions toward 2050 according to a 2020 survey of UCSF1)
Health &
Care Impact: Game-changing > Healthcare is one of the sectors
with highest levels of investment
3. Caregiving
in new technologies, new
Universal Health Coverage in the US treatment options, and new drugs
Environment The end of cancer > High level investments increase
Bionic eyes banish blindness Global pandemic wipes out millions
& Resources AIDS eradication
the probability for innovations to
E-health records interoperability solved
1. Climate Change & Pollution succeed, but many promising
Likelihood: Prediction
Mental health drugs are as precise and effective as antibiotics
2. Resources & Raw Materials Lab-grown organs make human donors obsolete ideas nevertheless fail further
Likelihood: Fiction
3. Ecosystems at Risk Cell and Gene Therapies affordable Superbugs proliferate

down the line: Predicting future
Economics
Gene editing Fully cybernetic limbs feasibility or game-changers is
A pill to effectively treat obesity
& Business
Mental illness without stigma highly difficult and uncertain
Male contraceptives go mainstream
1. Globalization Revisited > The University of California San
Humans and AI merge
2. Power Shifts Dentistry integrated into primary care
Injectable "nanobots" for therapies Francisco (UCSF), a leading
3. Sectoral Transformation university in health science, tried
4. Debt Challenge Cure for common cold Ability to regrow lost teeth to evaluate selected future health
Implanted electronic health records predictions
Technology Medical residents work 40-hours week
& Innovation Amazon runs world’s largest Health Maintenance Organization > The UCSF survey distinguishes
AI doctors deliver primary care between the importance of a
2. Artificial Intelligence healthcare outcome (on a scale
3. Humans & Machines Instant disease diagnosis via smartwatch Microbiome therapies make billions ranging from Overhyped to
The rich stay forever young with antiaging therapies
Game-changing) as well as the
Politics & probability of the outcome
Governance coming into effect (on a scale
Impact: Overhyped from Fiction to Prediction)
3. Global Risks
1) In 2020, University of California San Francisco (UCSF) faculty and alumni scored the above predictions for likelihood and impact. In the matrix we show all predictions except for two that are
specific to the US. UCSF is a leading and highly ranked public research university dedicated exclusively to the health sciences. Five UCSF scientists have received the Nobel Prize in Medicine
22 Sources: UCSF; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Cell and gene therapies belong to the most promising innovations enabling
Society
1. Population restoration of biological function and treatment of incurable diseases
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Cell and gene therapies are currently the subject of intense research and investment by many pharmaceutical companies. The aim is to deliver
Health &
cures for rare diseases and to enable new therapeutic approaches for more widespread diseases e.g. oncology or heart failure. Such
Care therapies work by employing engineered cells as therapeutics or by replacing defective or missing genes in a patient's cells
Cell & Gene1) Therapy sales, 2019-2024E Cell & Gene Therapy opportunities
3. Caregiving
Environment [EUR bn]

& Resources 26.0
2. Resources & Raw Materials Gene Therapy
3. Ecosystems at Risk Cell Therapy Enables treatment of previously incurable diseases
Economics 13.2
& Business 17.7
Precision medicine and ability for individualized customization
2. Power Shifts
8.8
4. Debt Challenge
10.6
Technology Long lasting effect, requiring mostly one-off treatments
& Innovation 5.0
6.0 12.8
2.9 2.5 8.9 In the future, possibility of novel curative mechanisms through
0.4 1.3 1.1 5.6 further enhancement of cells, e.g. via local payload (e.g.
1.0 3.4
Politics & 1.9 cytokines) secretion
Governance 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
3. Global Risks
1) Including combination Advanced Therapies and Medicinal Products (ATMPs)
23 Sources: Roland Berger; EvaluatePharma
Trend overview
People & The trend of increasingly age-related diseases such as dementia also
Society
1. Population points at a strong increase in the need for cost-intensive care
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Population aged 80+ Global number of people > The world's older population continues to
Health & years [m] living with dementia [m] grow. Globally, the number of people aged 80 or
Care older will nearly triple from 2020 to 2050 to
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards 426 million
2. Diseases & Treatments 426 > Many older people will be in good shape – but
3. Caregiving
many won't. The share of older people in need
Environment 152 of specific, more intensive care is growing
& Resources 82 > An important example of such an old-age care-
1. Climate Change & Pollution intensive disease is dementia. Early clinical
2. Resources & Raw Materials 50 symptoms comprise the difficulty of recalling
conversations, names or events as well as
Economics +193% apathy and depression. Later symptoms include
& Business impaired communication, disorientation and
2018 2030 2050 confusion, behavioral changes and, ultimately,
2. Power Shifts difficulty speaking, swallowing, and walking
4. Debt Challenge
Worldwide cost of dementia > Dementia has a physical, psychological, social,
and economic impact on patients but also on
Technology
146 [USD tr] their care systems: doctors, caregivers,
families, and society at large
& Innovation
1. Value of Technology > Currently around 50 million people are living
2. Artificial Intelligence with dementia globally. This number is
2 tr
3. Humans & Machines expected to triple to 152 million by 2050
Politics &
Governance 1 tr > The next decade will 'only' see an increase of
around 30 million people, but this will lead to a
1. Future of Democracy doubling of the current global cost of USD 1
2. Governance & Geopolitics 2020 2050 2018 2030 trillion to USD 2 trillion
3. Global Risks
24 Sources: UN Population Division; WHO; Alzheimer's Association; Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & An increasing number of professional care givers is required to support the
Society
1. Population growing number of older people and their increasingly complex care needs
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Example USA – Workforce of direct care workers 2008-2028 [m]
Health &
Care > Currently, nearly 20 million adults in the US require assistance with
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards 5.8
self-care and other daily tasks due to physical, cognitive,
3. Caregiving
developmental, and/or behavioral conditions; nearly 6 million US
citizens are suffering from Alzheimer, the most common form of
Environment dementia. This number is expected to increase to nearly 14 million in
& Resources 2050, with 75% of them requiring personal assistance
4.5
1. Climate Change & Pollution > Individuals with such care needs rely to the largest extent on family
members, friends, and neighbors – a support network of more than 43
million informal caregivers whose economic contribution is valued at
Economics USD 470 billion. But for those with limited care support, or with more
& Business complex needs, paid direct care workers are a lifeline
1. Globalization Revisited 2.9 > Direct care workers – encompassing personal care aides, home health
2. Power Shifts aides, and nursing assistants, etc.– provide assistance with daily
3. Sectoral Transformation routine activities (e.g. bathing, dressing, eating) and auxiliary activities
4. Debt Challenge of daily life (such as preparing meals, housekeeping, managing
medications, and attending appointments, etc.)
Technology
& Innovation > The already sizable direct care workforce in the US is expanding
1. Value of Technology rapidly as the older population grows and lives longer with chronic
2. Artificial Intelligence conditions and disabilities, while the supply of potential family
3. Humans & Machines caregivers dwindles. The workforce has already nearly doubled within a
decade, from 2.9 million workers in 2008 to almost 4.5 million in 2018
Politics &
> The long-term care sector is expected to add a further 1.3 million
Governance
direct care jobs in primarily personal care positions, from 2018 to
2028 – more new jobs than in any other US occupational category
2. Governance & Geopolitics 2008 2018 2028
3. Global Risks
25 Sources: PHI; Alzheimer's Association; US Department of Health and Human Services

Megatrend 3
Environment &
Resources
26
Trend overview
People & Upping global climate change mitigation is a must, in the future, water,
Society
1. Population food, and raw materials face critical issues, biodiversity is underfunded
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "Environment & Resources"
Health &
Care
1 2 3
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
Economics
& Business
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
2. Artificial Intelligence Climate Change Resources & Ecosystems
& Pollution Raw Materials at Risk
Politics &
Governance
3. Global Risks
27
Trend overview
People & Manmade global temperature increases can only be limited to 2°C if
Society
1. Population significant additional efforts are undertaken to become carbon-free in 2100
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education CO2/Temperature increase nexus How to reach the Paris goal (Global warming < 2°C)
Health & Global temperature anomalies compared to the average Global CO2 equivalent emissions Scenarios Global
Care global temperature in the 20th century [left scale, °C] and under different scenarios temperature
CO2 concentration in the atmosphere [right scale, ppm] [GtCO2e] increase in
21001)
3. Caregiving 1.0 420 130
CO2 concentration 120 Business as usual 4.1°C
Environment 0.8 400
& Resources 110
1. Climate Change & Pollution 0.6 100
380 90 Pursuit of national/
3. Ecosystems at Risk 0.4 80
regional pledges until
360 2030, without additio-
Temperature 70
Economics 0.2 nal actions/reductions
& Business 60 thereafter
340
1. Globalization Revisited 0.0 50
2. Power Shifts
320 40
3. Sectoral Transformation -0.2 30
4. Debt Challenge
Pursuit of national/
300 20
-0.4 regional pledges
Technology
& Innovation -0.6 280
10
0
until 2030 with
additional reductive
1.8°C
1. Value of Technology 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2019 2020 2030 2050 2100
actions thereafter
Is the limit of 2°C enough?

Politics &
Governance To keep the global warming below 2°C had long been regarded as the right target measure to limit the most
1. Future of Democracy dangerous risks. More recently, 1.5°C has been considered safer, which requires rapid, far-reaching, and
3. Global Risks
unprecedented changes across all aspects of society
1) Compared to the pre-industrial temperature level
28 Sources: NOAA; Climate Interactive; IPCC; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & CO2 dominates emissions mix while 2/3 of global GHG stem from just 10
Society
1. Population emitters – Sectoral source analysis also points to actionable levers
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Composition of global GHG Biggest GHG emitters Sources of global GHG
Health & emissions 20161) 2016 emissions 2016
Care
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards Energy use in
2. Diseases & Treatments agriculture
3. Caregiving Nitrous dioxide Others Waste Energy use
Industry
Environment 6% 2% China
3%
5% 2% in industry
& Resources Others 26% Misc. 24%
Methane
17% 32% energy 14%
use
Economics
& Business 2%
2% 13% 16%
South Korea 2% 2% USA 18%
2. Power Shifts
74% Iran
3. Sectoral Transformation 3%
CO2 Indonesia 8% Energy use in
4. Debt Challenge 5% 18%
Brazil 7% transportation Agriculture,
EU
Technology Japan India Energy forestry
& Innovation Russia use in & land use
1. Value of Technology buildings
49.4 GtCO2e
Global GHG emissions 2016:
Politics &
Governance Selected levers for GHG reductions: Higher efficiency in industrial processes, increased use of renewable energy
1. Future of Democracy sources, regional production, better energy efficiency of buildings, smart solutions (smart supply chains, smart
3. Global Risks
mobility and logistics, smart cities)
1) GHG: green house gas; most recent data available
29 Sources: World Resources Institute; Climate Watch; IEA; Global Change Data Lab; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Beyond GHGs: Other types of pollution are damaging our environment and
Society
1. Population threaten human health – Informed limitation and directed efforts are key
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Air Water Land Noise Titel
Light
Health & pollution pollution pollution pollution pollution
Care Fine dust, sulfur dioxide, Waste (particularly Liquid, solid or sludge Traffic noise, flight paths, Over-illumination of
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards Examples
carbon monoxide, nitrogen plastics) and sewage, waste i.e. open dump or heavy industry, mining, streets/places/buildings/
2. Diseases & Treatments oxides, ozone, chemical bacteria, oil, chemicals, landfill; microplastics in construction sites industrial plants
3. Caregiving vapors, pollen, radioactive pesticides and herbicides, sewage sludge used as
air pollutants fertilizer, tire abrasions, fertilizer; pesticides,
Environment metals, drugs herbicides, heavy metals
& Resources
Selected Fuel combustion for energy Industry and household Industry, households, Vehicles, aviation, Public and private
origins production/transportation/ sewage, mines, vehicles mines, agriculture industrial plants, mining, infrastructure
heating etc., non-exhaust (e.g., ships/oily water and construction machinery
vehicle emissions; natural, garbage), agricultural
chemical and nuclear runoff, spillages
Economics catastrophes
& Business
1. Globalization Revisited 9 out of 10 people #1 cause of the
The Great Pacific Ocean Globally, 33% of waste is
2. Power Shifts breathe air that exceeds 466 m people globally 83% of the world's
Garbage Patch contains still openly dumped and suffering from disabling
3. Sectoral Transformation WHO air pollution population live under
1.8 tr pieces of plastic in approx. 40% goes to hearing loss is mostly
4. Debt Challenge guidelines – air pollution is
responsible for 1 in 8
an area of 1.6 m km2 – 3x
landfills work-related noise – light-polluted skies
the size of France
Technology deaths worldwide not age
& Innovation
Pollution reduction and mitigation approaches
> Ban (more) harmful pollutants > Switch to circularity approaches and longer-lasting, more sustainable
Politics & > Set tighter pollution limits across all types of pollution products
Governance > Inform and improve better land use, waste and light management
> Implement emission-free/lower emission energy production and
industrial processes practices
3. Global Risks
30 Sources: LiveScience; WHO; WWF; Ocean Cleanup; World Bank; National Geographic; International Journal of Science and Research; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & An inconvenient truth about energy consumption: Unless coordinated

Society
1. Population efforts change global patterns, fossil fuels still top the 2050 energy mix
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global energy consumption according to the EIA International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2020
Health &
Care By fuel By region The IEO 2020 is based on the following
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards assumptions1)
World [quadrillion Btu] World [quadrillion Btu]
> Current views of economic and demographic
3. Caregiving
910.7 910.7 trends, and improvements in known technology
Environment Coal OECD Americas > Implementation of current laws and regulations
& Resources 179.2 Natural gas 138.1 OECD Europe
1. Climate Change & Pollution Petroleum & OECD Asia To lower consumption of fossil fuels,
2. Resources & Raw Materials other liquids2)
3. Ecosystems at Risk 99.3 Non-OECD Americas2) we need …
Nuclear Non-OECD Europe
620.0 Renewables3) 620.0 49.4 & Eurasia3)
… more and better coordinated global efforts
Economics 198.9
to secure climate protection of a country or
44.0
& Business Non-OECD Asia
region (e.g. the introduction of CO2 pricing)
160.1 125.2 54.3
1. Globalization Revisited Middle East while ensuring its global competitiveness
2. Power Shifts
Africa
3. Sectoral Transformation 83.3 … more energy efficiency measures geared at
4. Debt Challenge 138.2
242.5
40.9 stopping the increase of overall global
32.3 consumption
Technology 49.1 416.4 … more technological innovations and
& Innovation 37.9
solutions, and an open discussion regarding
1. Value of Technology 198.9 potential consequences (e.g. new grids,
2. Artificial Intelligence 227.4
3. Humans & Machines hydrogen pipelines etc.)
28.0 252.2
57.8 … to pay the price for climate protection, i.e.
Politics & 94.8 37.3 an understanding and acceptance of a loss of
Governance 24.5 51.4
prosperity
1. Future of Democracy 2018 2050 2018 2050
3. Global Risks
1) The IEO 2020 is based on the IEO 2019 modeling platform focusing on longer-term market dynamics not including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic 2) Includes biofuels 3) Except biofuels
31 Sources: EIA; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & The demand for water and food is expected to grow significantly toward
Society
1. Population 2050 – Higher efficiency and further levers could mitigate its growth (1/2)
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global water demand 20151) vs. 2050 [km3]
Health &
Care
55% 2015 Water
4,135 km3 Main levers for a sustainable
3. Caregiving
20% water resource management
Environment 13% 12%
& Resources > Incentivize water use efficiency
> Invest in water storage
1% +32% innovatively
Economics > Reconsider water allocation
& Business mechanisms
1. Globalization Revisited Water > Mitigate water related disasters
2. Power Shifts
Main drivers of
37% 2050
> Improve wastewater
5,467 km3
25%
4. Debt Challenge demand 22% treatment/reduce run-off
Technology > Population growth 14% > Accelerate water supply and
& Innovation > GDP growth sanitation in developing
countries
2. Artificial Intelligence > Growing prosperity
1% > Improve water governance for
> Urbanization
Politics & coherence
Governance > Sectoral change
3. Global Risks Irrigation Electricity Manufacturing Domestic Livestock
1) The values for 2015 are linearly extrapolated with the values for 2000 and 2050 2) BRIICS: Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa 3) RoW = rest of the world
32 Sources: OECD; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & The demand for water and food is expected to grow significantly toward
Society
1. Population 2050 – Higher efficiency and further levers could mitigate its growth (2/2)
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global food demand 20151) vs. 2050 [km3]
Health &
Care
Three gaps that must be closed to achieve a sustainable Food
2. Diseases & Treatments food future in 2050: To meet the higher demand for food in Main levers to close the gaps
3. Caregiving 2050 we need (compared to 2010) …
> Raise productivity
Environment 56%
& Resources more > Manage demand
1. Climate Change & Pollution … 56% more crop The food
calories being produced 2010 2050 gap > Link agricultural intensification
3. Ecosystems at Risk to natural ecosystems protection
Economics > Moderate ruminant meat
& Business consumption
1. Globalization Revisited Food 2x
size of > Target reforestation and peatland
2. Power Shifts
Main drivers of … 593 m ha more India
agricultural land – twice The land restoration
4. Debt Challenge demand gap
the size of India > Require production-related
Technology > Population growth climate mitigation
& Innovation > Growing prosperity
1. Value of Technology … 11 GtCO2e GHG 15 > Spur technological innovation
2. Artificial Intelligence leading to a shift in emissions p.a. in 2050 12 11 GtCO2e/y
3. Humans & Machines diets from agriculture and
land-use change1) need
Politics & to be limited down to 4
Governance GtCO2e p.a. in order to to 4 The GHG
meet the 2°C Paris goal 2010 2050 mitigation gap
3. Global Risks
1) With current rate of productivity gains emissions from agriculture and land-use change will increase to 15 GtCO2e per year in 2050
33 Sources: World Resources Institute; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Water, food, and energy resources aside, a high number of raw materials
Society
1. Population are critical for our economy – China is the dominant supplier
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education An analysis of the EU: Countries accounting for largest share
Health & of global supply of critical raw materials (CRM) 20201) [%]
Care The EU analysis concerning
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards China CRMs
France Russia > Antimony (74%)
3. Caregiving > Palladium (40%) > Since 2011 the EU reports on the
> Hafnium (49%) > Baryte (38%) global supply of raw materials
Environment > Bismuth (80%)
Spain > Coking Coal (55%) > The 2020 (fourth) assessment covers
& Resources 80+ raw materials with a view to these
1. Climate Change & Pollution > Strontium Turkey > Fluorspar (65%)
USA (31%) > Gallium (80%) being critical – or not – for the EU
2. Resources & Raw Materials > Borates (42%)
3. Ecosystems at Risk > Beryllium (88%) > Germanium (80%) > The EU defines a raw material as
> Indium (48%) critical when its economic importance
Economics Thailand
> Magnesium (89%) and its supply risk is high
& Business > Natural rubber (33%)
> Natural graphite 69%) > At present, the EU identified 30 raw
1. Globalization Revisited Brazil D.R. of Congo > Phosphate rock (48%) materials or raw material groups as
2. Power Shifts
Chile > Niobium (92%) > Cobalt (59%) > Phosphorus (74%)
3. Sectoral Transformation critical
> Lithium (44%) > Tantalum (33%) > Scandium (66%)
4. Debt Challenge
> Silicon metal (66%)
South Africa > Titanium (45%) Looking ahead to 2050
Technology
& Innovation > Iridium (92%) > Tungsten (69%) Demand for rare earths used in
> Platinum (71%) > Vanadium (39%) permanent magnets, e.g. for electric
2. Artificial Intelligence > Rhodium (80%) > Light REEs2) (86%) vehicles, digital technologies or wind
3. Humans & Machines > Ruthenium (93%) > Heavy REEs (86%) generators, could increase tenfold by
2050. By 2050, the EU will require
Politics & Selected CRMs and examples of end-use around 60 times more lithium, essential
Governance for e-mobility, and 15 times more
Beryllium: electronic and telecommunications equipment; Germanium: infrared optics; Hafnium: superalloy;
1. Future of Democracy cobalt, used in electric car batteries
2. Governance & Geopolitics Niobium: magnets; Rhodium: auto catalyst; Phosphate rock: mineral fertilizer; Tantalum: capacitors;
3. Global Risks Tungsten: tools
1) Percentage shares refer to the study "Report on critical raw materials for the EU" (2020), European Commission 2) REEs: Rare Earths Elements
34 Sources: European Commission; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Biodiversity is declining: One third of terrestrial species have been lost to
Society
1. Population date – The need to tackle rising pressures such as climate change is high
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Terrestrial mean species abundance loss 2020 and 2050 for selected Relative share of pressures to additional
Health & regions and countries1) [% loss compared to pristine ecosystem] terrestrial biodiversity loss 2010-20501) [%]
Care
3. Caregiving
World North Europe Brazil China Climate change
America Forestry
Environment Bioenergy
33%
& Resources 39% Infratructure, encroachment,
1. Climate Change & Pollution fragmentation
2. Resources & Raw Materials Former land use
3. Ecosystems at Risk Nitrogen
15% Food crop
Economics
-22% Pasture
& Business 1%
1. Globalization Revisited 26%
2. Power Shifts 19%
-35% -35%
4. Debt Challenge -37%
-40% -41% 12%
-43% 11%
Technology -46%
& Innovation 2%
11%
2. Artificial Intelligence 17%
11%
3% 0% 1%
Politics & -66%
Governance -71% 2010- 2030-
1. Future of Democracy 2030 2050
3. Global Risks 2020 2050
1) According to the Baseline scenario of the OECD, which includes steady GDP growth and a strong ongoing use of fossil fuels
35 Source: OECD
Trend overview
People & Sustainable biodiversity is a 'must have' – For our planet but also for our
Society
1. Population economy. More than half of global GDP is dependent on nature …
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Value of biodiversity for a sustainable and economically sound planet
Health &
Care > Methods to quantify the economic value of biodiversity are complex yet
2. Diseases & Treatments important as biodiversity is under extreme pressure worldwide, with one
3. Caregiving million animal and plant species threatened with extinction according
to UN estimates
Environment
& Resources > WEF research shows that USD 44 trillion of economic value generation
1. Climate Change & Pollution – more than half of the world’s total GDP – is moderately or highly
dependent on nature and its services, and therefore directly exposed to
risks from nature loss
Economics
& Business
1. Globalization Revisited Two illustrative examples:
2. Power Shifts
> More than 75% of global food crops are dependent on insect pollinators,
4. Debt Challenge
thus contributing 35% of global food production. According to the
Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and
Technology Ecosystem Services (IPBES) the annual value of global crop output at
& Innovation risk due to pollinator loss is estimated at USD 235-577 billion
USD 235 - > Great whales sequester 33 tons CO2 on average over their lifetime.
USD 1 tr
Together with other economic effects such as fishery enhancement,
577 bn p.a.
Politics & ecotourism, and phytoplankton productivity (capturing 37 billion tons

Governance CO2 p.a.), the IMF puts the average value of a great whale at more than
1. Future of Democracy USD 2 million and the value for the current stock of great whales at
2. Governance & Geopolitics over USD 1 trillion
3. Global Risks
36 Sources: UN/IPBES; WEF; IMF

Trend overview
People & … but less than 1% of annual global GDP could close the USD 711 billion
Society
1. Population per year biodiversity funding gap conserving the planet's environment
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global biodiversity conservation financing vs. global biodiversity conservation needs [USD bn]
Health &
Care
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards Current 1,000 Future biodiversity
3. Caregiving
biodiversity 900 spending needs and
Environment
financing flows 844.5 levers
800
& Resources > In 2019, the total global annual > We need to spend USD 722–967
flow of funds toward biodiversity 700 billion p.a. to halt the decline in
protection amounted to approx. global biodiversity between now
USD 124-143 billion p.a. 600 and 2030
Biodiversity financing
Economics > Meanwhile, annual governmental gap USD 711 bn > This leaves an estimated global
& Business expenditures on activities
500 biodiversity financing gap of USD
harmful to biodiversity in the 598-824 billion p.a. – roughly
2. Power Shifts
form of agricultural, forestry, and
400 equal to just under one percent of
fisheries subsidies – USD 274- annual global GDP
4. Debt Challenge
542 billion p.a. in 2019 – are two
300
Technology to four times higher than annual
200
& Innovation capital flows toward biodiversity 133.5
conservation
100
0
Politics & Global biodiversity Global biodiversity
Governance conservation financing conservation financing
1. Future of Democracy in 2019 needs by 2030
3. Global Risks Lower limit Upper limit Middle point
37 Sources: Paulson Institute/Cornell/Nature Conservancy

Megatrend 4
Economics
& Business
38
Trend overview
People & Global value chains are under revision, a new power bloc is emerging,
Society
1. Population sectoral transformation is key, pandemic accelerates global debt burden
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "Economics & Business"
Health &
Care
1 2 3 4
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
Economics
& Business
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
Globalization Power Sectoral Debt
Politics &
Governance
Revisited Shifts Transformation Challenge
3. Global Risks
39
Trend overview
People & Global trade has long been the engine of globalization and growth – But
Society
1. Population since the Global Financial Crisis growth rates of trade have nearly halved
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global trade has cooled off after 2009 Multiple factors are slowing global trade
Health & Globally, the
Care 7.0 20,320
cumulative number
2. Diseases & Treatments of harmful trade
3. Caregiving interventions has
Average yearly GFC 11,318
increased sizably –
Environment growth of 3.8
& Resources 2009 from less than 3,000
global exports in 2010 to more than
1. Climate Change & Pollution 2,874
2. Resources & Raw Materials (goods and 20,000 in 2020
3. Ecosystems at Risk services), real,
[CAGR, %] 2010 2015 2020
Economics
& Business > An important driver of trade barriers has been a change in outlook
1. Globalization Revisited 1999-2008 2010-2019
and the subsequent trade wars between US and the EU/China
2. Power Shifts
3. Sectoral Transformation > In addition, the Corona crisis has created huge uncertainty and
4. Debt Challenge added additional barriers to the flow of trade
> But free trade in goods has not just been stagnating since the
Technology Trump administration: probably the most prominent trade
& Innovation 4.1 agreement, the US-European TTIP, failed during the Obama
1. Value of Technology Average yearly GFC 3.4 administration, not least due to European concerns
growth of 2009 > Sanctions, such as directed at Russia due to the conflict in the
global GDP, Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea, are a burden to global trade
Politics & real, PPP > Moreover, the European trade agreement with South American
Governance
[CAGR, %] MERCOSUR countries has also been stalling for some time due to
European concerns
3. Global Risks 1999-2008 2010-2019
40 Sources: Oxford Economics; Global Trade Alert; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Mirroring global trade developments, global supply chains also weakened
Society
1. Population while domestic production gained prominence
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Shift in global supply chains towards domestic production
Health & Domestic share of value added as a proportion of a country's/region's
Care > The Corona crisis has cruelly exposed all the
total exports 2011 and 2015 [%] weaknesses of the international labor
2. Diseases & Treatments +3.3 pp. division. A massive supply and demand
3. Caregiving +4.4 pp. shock at the beginning of 2020 brought
87.3 90.5 many economies to a standstill
Environment 82.7
& Resources 78.3 > However, the decline of the importance of
1. Climate Change & Pollution global value chains had already started half
2. Resources & Raw Materials a decade earlier
> China's economy moved up the value chain
Economics and replaced imports of intermediate
& Business products through domestic production
> In the US, the EU and Germany the
2. Power Shifts
2011 2015 2011 2015 substitution of foreign imports of
intermediate products with more domestic
4. Debt Challenge +1.9 pp. production is less pronounced, but equally
+2.2 pp.
Technology 87.8 evident
86.0
& Innovation 76.8 79.0 > The trend toward regionalization or even
1. Value of Technology reshoring of production comprises different
causes such as a reduction of wage
differentials, a higher importance of
Politics & transport cost, the pursuit of domestic
Governance production for essential goods, or the aim of
a more sustainable production with shorter
2. Governance & Geopolitics transport routes
3. Global Risks 2011 2015 2011 2015
41 Sources: OECD; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & Economic power is shifting further toward emerging countries – With RCEP,
Society
1. Population Asia-Pacific countries set the course for a global economic power bloc
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education In 2050, 3 of the top 5 global economic Geographically, Asia reaffirms its
Health & players will stem from emerging markets position at the center of global
Care
economic power
Top 10 countries in terms of nominal GDP in 2019 and 2050 [USD bn]
3. Caregiving
GDP 2019 GDP 2050 > In November 2020, the Regional Comprehensive
Environment Economic Partnership (RCEP) formed by the ten
& Resources 21,433 90,805 ASEAN member states plus five other countries in
1. Climate Change & Pollution the Asia-Pacific region, including China, Japan,
2. Resources & Raw Materials 14,330 64,232 South Korea, New Zealand and Australia, was
3. Ecosystems at Risk announced
5,083 34,339
Economics > The agreement accounts for almost 30 percent of
& Business world trade with the countries involved
3,868 9,928
1. Globalization Revisited representing around 2.2 billion people, making the
2. Power Shifts
2,835 9,869 agreement the largest free trade area in the world
– ahead of the EU
4. Debt Challenge
2,828 9,721 > RCEP is clearly a competitive force amongst free
Technology
trade areas, but equally a new opportunity for its
& Innovation 2,717 8,738
members and other such trading blocs: The
agreement may make it easier for other free trade
2,003 6,853 areas to trade with the Asia-Pacific states, as it
can reduce or replace the number of bilateral or
Politics & 1,839 5,872 country-level agreements
Governance
1. Future of Democracy 1,736 5,800
3. Global Risks
42 Sources: Oxford Economics; EEAS; Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & From a sectoral point of view, transformation is the key challenge –
Society
1. Population Main drivers are decarbonization and new technologies
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Transformation of selected sectors: Main drivers
Health &
Care Automotive > Increased political and public pressure and stricter regulation to reduce carbon footprint
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards > Technological innovations, especially in areas of new propulsion technologies (electrification, fuel
cells), autonomous driving, increased digitalization, connectivity, and artificial intelligence
3. Caregiving
> Increasing demand for new mobility services, rise of the sharing economy
Environment
& Resources
2. Resources & Raw Materials Utilities > Carbon reduction goals/carbon pricing leading to devaluation of existing fossil fuel-based assets
3. Ecosystems at Risk and high investments in new assets (renewables)
> Decentralization of energy production
Economics > Increasing energy demand in emerging economies due to the emerging middle class
& Business
1. Globalization Revisited > Increasing electrification and new business models due to sector coupling
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Aerospace > Declining demand for aircrafts as aviation is seen as a major climate killer by the public and regulators
> New technologies like electric propulsion of aircrafts
Technology > New design, manufacturing, and service concepts
& Innovation > Enhanced safety requirements triggered by aircraft-related accidents
Financial > New technologies such as AI, blockchain, cloud computing
Politics & Services > Increased competition due to new players such as Fintechs and new business models e.g. peer-to-
Governance peer-financing
1. Future of Democracy > New analytics opportunities like big data, customer intelligence
3. Global Risks
43 Source: Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & Financially, the global economy is burdened by increasing debt levels –
Society
1. Population Post-COVID, it is unclear how to deleverage
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Global Debt 2000-2030 [USD tr]
Health &
Care 400
> The Corona pandemic caused a sharp rise in government and
corporate borrowing. Experts estimate that global debt (across all
350 debt) is set to increase by USD 20 trillion at the end of 2020 year on
3. Caregiving
year, to reach USD 277 trillion (365% of global GDP)
Environment Financial sector > In Q3 2020 global debt of households is estimated at USD 49.2
& Resources 300 trillion, of non-financial corporates at USD 79.6 trillion, of general
government at USD 77.6 trillion, and of the financial sector at USD
66.3 trillion. Governments accounted for 43% of the USD 20 trillion
3. Ecosystems at Risk 250 increase of global debt from Q3 2019 to Q3 2020
Economics General government > The pace of global debt accumulation has been unprecedented
& Business 200 since 2016, increasing by an estimated amount of more than USD
52 trillion. While a significant part of this surge can be attributed to
2. Power Shifts
the 2020 Corona pandemic, the prior 2016-2019 debt build-up has
150 already far outstripped the USD 6 trillion rise over the previous four
4. Debt Challenge
years and over earlier comparable periods
Technology Non-financial sector > What about the future? There is significant uncertainty about how
& Innovation 100 the global economy can deleverage without significant adverse
1. Value of Technology implications for economic activity. The next decade could bring a
reflationary fiscal response, in sharp contrast to the austerity
3. Humans & Machines 50 measures exerted in the 2010s. If the global debt pile continues to
Household grow at the average pace of the last 15 years, experts estimate that
Politics &
Governance global debt could exceed USD 360 trillion by 2030
0
1. Future of Democracy 2000 2010 2020e 2030f
3. Global Risks
44 Source: Institute for International Finance

Megatrend 5
Technology
& Innovation
45
Trend overview
People & Technology investment and innovation capabilities remain key –

Society
1. Population AI promises vast future potential alongside concerns for human values
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "Technology & Innovation"
Health &
Care
1 2 3
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
Economics
& Business
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
Value of Artificial Humans &
Politics &
Governance
Technology Intelligence Machines
3. Global Risks
46
Trend overview
People & Technology and innovation drive prosperity – A lack of such capabilities is a
Society
1. Population major hurdle for developing countries to level with developed countries
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Bloomberg Innovation Index 2020 related to GDP per capita PPP in 20191) [innovation index, USD]
Health &
Care GDP per capita PPP [USD] > The innovative capability of a nation is an essential engine of
productivity, growth, and prosperity
2. Diseases & Treatments 70,000
3. Caregiving > The Bloomberg Innovation Index ranks countries from 0 to 100
USA based on their ability to innovate. The index analyzes countries along
Norway
Environment 60,000 a variety of metrics, including R&D intensity, patent activity, tertiary
& Resources Australia Germany education efficiency, manufacturing value-added, productivity, high-
France tech density, and researcher concentration
50,000 UK > Evaluating the Bloomberg Innovating Index from a GDP perspective,
Israel there is a clear message: the higher (lower) countries score on
Italy
Economics Japan innovation the higher (lower) their GDP/capita. China is an exception
& Business 40,000
South Korea in having successfully built up its innovation strength, yet the country
has a comparably lower GDP/capita – largely due to relatively lower
2. Power Shifts
30,000 Turkey levels of income among the rural population
3. Sectoral Transformation Malaysia
4. Debt Challenge Russia > Many developing countries lack access regarding institutions and
Argentina skills to close the technology and innovation gap. Established
Technology 20,000 networks of higher education and research institutions as well as a
& Innovation Mexico Brazil China significant number of technology companies involved in high-end
Morocco South Africa R&D – both seen in developed countries – are notably absent
2. Artificial Intelligence 10,000
Tunisia > A stark illustration of this gap is can be found in the number of
India articles published in technological and scientific journals: In 2013, in
Politics & 0 the least developed countries of Africa only 7 articles were
Governance published per 1 million people. In OECD member countries, the
40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90
1. Future of Democracy comparative number totaled 1,100 for every 1 million people
2. Governance & Geopolitics Bloomberg Innovation Index
3. Global Risks
1) World Bank GDP per capita, PPP, current international USD
47 Sources: Bloomberg; World Bank; UN; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & High levels of investments made by developed countries demonstrate that
Society
1. Population technology remains key – Catch up by developing countries will be difficult
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Selected investments in technology
Health &
Care
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
US and China China has 91% of EU is to Plans of AI attracts Part of a larger
Economics
& Business
have invested announced an investments in invest Biden's the most post-COVID
1. Globalization Revisited USD 92 investment of emerging USD 10.9 administration investment stimulus
2. Power Shifts billion and USD 1.4 technologies billion (2021- include globally, package,
USD 22 trillion made in 2027) in digital doubling the securing USD Germany
4. Debt Challenge
billion by 2025 in 2015-2019 transformation, federal R&D 23 billion in is planning to
Technology have come including AI, spending to 2019, with invest USD 2.4
respectively in developing AI
& Innovation
emerging software and from 10 supercom- USD 300 investment billion in
2. Artificial Intelligence technologies installing 5G countries1) puting, cyber- billion over forecast to quantum
over the last 5 networks 4 years reach technology
security and
years USD 110

Politics & digital skills billion in 2024
Governance
3. Global Risks
1) Emerging technologies include AI, robotics, cybersecurity, blockchain, IoT, VR and AR
48 Sources: UN; Fortune; CNET; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & What lies ahead? A significant number of emerging technologies is based
Society
1. Population on Artificial Intelligence
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Gartner Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 20201)
Health &
Care Expectations > The Gartner Hype Cycle, developed
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards Secure Access Service Edge (SASE) and used by the American
2. Diseases & Treatments Social Distancing Technologies research, advisory and information
Embedded AI
3. Caregiving
Data Fabric
Explainable AI technology company Gartner,
provides a snapshot of the
Environment Composable Enterprise maturity of innovations
& Resources AI Augmented Development
1. Climate Change & Pollution Responsible AI
Carbon-Based Transistors > It maps the speed at which each
2. Resources & Raw Materials Multiexperience innovation is progressing through
3. Ecosystems at Risk Digital Twin of the Person
Citizen Twin
the Hype Cycle by indicating how
Packaged Business Capabilities long it will take to reach the
Economics Generative AI Bring Your Own Identity
"Plateau of Productivity" and the
Composite AI
& Business Adaptive ML start of mainstream adoption
1. Globalization Revisited Social Data
Private 5G > The Gartner Hype Cycle
2. Power Shifts Generative Adversarial Differential Privacy
3. Sectoral Transformation Networks
Biodegradable
Ontologies and Graphs characterizes the typical
2-Way BMI (Brain
4. Debt Challenge Machine Interface)
Sensors progression of innovation, from
Health Passport overenthusiasm through a period
Self-Supervised Learning
Technology Low-Cost Single-Board of disillusionment to an eventual
DNA Computing and Storage
& Innovation Computers at the Edge understanding of the innovation’s
AI-Assisted Design
1. Value of Technology Authenticated relevance and its role in a market
2. Artificial Intelligence Provenance
or domain
3. Humans & Machines Peak of
Innovation Inflated Trough of Slope of Plateau of
Politics & Trigger Expectations Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity
Governance
1. Future of Democracy Time
Plateau will be reached: Less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years More than 10 years
3. Global Risks
1) A selection of emerging AI technologies highlighted in bold
49 Source: Gartner Source: Gartner
Trend overview
People & The progression of AI capabilities is expected to be near limitless –

Society
1. Population Intelligent machines will accomplish more and more ambitious tasks
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Timeline of AI achieving human performance with a probability of 50%1)
Health &
Care Answer Questions
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards Without Definite
2. Diseases & Treatments Telephone Banking Answers: Give good Generate Top 40 Pop Write New York Times
3. Caregiving
Operator: Provide phone answers in natural language to Song: Compose a song that is Bestseller: Write a novel or
Environment banking services as well as human factual questions posed in good enough to reach the US Top short story good enough to
& Resources operators can – without annoying natural language for which there 40. The system should output the make it to the New York Times
customers more than humans are no definite correct answers complete song as an audio file bestseller list
Economics
& Business
2020 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2034 2049 2050
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
One-shot Learning: Write a High School 5 km Race in City: Go (same training as
Technology See only one labeled image of Essay: Write an essay for Beat the fastest human human): Defeat the best Go
& Innovation a new object, and then be able a high school history class runners in a 5 kilometer players, training only on as many
to recognize the object in real that would receive high race through city streets
1. Value of Technology games as the best Go players
world scenes, to the extent grades and pass plagiarism using a bipedal robot
detectors have played
3. Humans & Machines that a typical human can body
Politics &
Governance AI experts expect that – with a probability of 50% – around 2060 unaided machines will be able to accomplish every
1. Future of Democracy task better and more cheaply than human workers. Around 2140 all occupations will be fully automatable1)
3. Global Risks
1) Based on an international survey of machine learning researchers
50 Sources: Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & AI's huge power is met with enthusiasm mixed with concerns – Inherent
Society
1. Population human values must stay central to current and future developments
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Selected views of entrepreneurs and Concerns and solutions: AI and the future of humans –
Health & scientists on AI An expert survey by Pew Research 2018
Care
3. Caregiving Greg Shannon, Carnegie Mellon University:
Concerns Solutions
"If elements of community happiness are part of AI Human agency Global good is No. 1
Environment
objective functions, then AI could catalyze an Individuals are experiencing a loss of Improve human collaboration across
& Resources
explosion of happiness." control over their lives borders and stakeholder groups
Bill Gates, Microsoft Foundation: Data abuse Value-based system
"[The power of AI is] so incredible, it will change Data use and surveillance in complex Develop policies to assure AI will be
Economics society in some very deep ways. The world hasn’t systems is designed for profit or for directed at 'humanness' and common
& Business had that many technologies that are both promising exercising power good
1. Globalization Revisited and dangerous." Job loss Prioritize people
2. Power Shifts
Elon Musk, Tesla: The AI takeover of jobs will widen Alter economic and political systems
"Humans must merge with machines or become economic divides, leading to social to better help humans 'race with the
4. Debt Challenge
irrelevant in AI age." upheaval robots'
Technology Dependence lock-in
& Innovation Erik Brynjolfsson, MIT: Reduction of individuals' cognitive,
"We need to work aggressively to make sure
social and survival skills
2. Artificial Intelligence technology matches our values."
Jeff Bezos, Amazon: Mayhem
Politics & "I think autonomous weapons are extremely scary. Autonomous weapons, cybercrime
Governance [The artificial intelligence tech that] we already and weaponized information
1. Future of Democracy know and understand are perfectly adequate [to
2. Governance & Geopolitics create these kinds of weapons]."
3. Global Risks
51 Sources: Pew Research; CNBC

Megatrend 6
Politics &
Governance
52
Trend overview
People & The decline of democratic traits accelerates – Autocratization trends and
Society
1. Population democracy fatigue will pose challenges to global governance
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Subtrends of megatrend "Politics & Governance"
Health &
Care
1 2 3
3. Caregiving
Environment
& Resources
Economics
& Business
2. Power Shifts
4. Debt Challenge
Technology
& Innovation
2. Artificial Intelligence Future of Governance Global
Democracy & Geopolitics Risks
Politics &
Governance
3. Global Risks
53
Trend overview
People & The future of (liberal) democracy is under threat – (Electoral)

Society
1. Population Autocratization trends have surged over the past decade
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Autocratization – the decline of democratic traits – accelerates globally
Health &
Care > For the first time since 2001, autocracies are in the
90 85
majority: 92 countries which are home to 54% of
3. Caregiving
80 the global population, while 87 electoral and liberal
democracies comprise 46% of the world’s
Environment 70 67 Electoral autocracies population
Number of countries
& Resources > Nationally, this shift is exemplified by Hungary,

60
1. Climate Change & Pollution now classified as the EU’s first ever authoritarian
50 50 Electoral democracies regime member state; autocratization is affecting
Brazil, India, Turkey, which are major populous
Economics 40 37 economies with substantial military and political
Liberal democracies
& Business 36 influence; regionally, Latin America is back on a
30 level last recorded in the early 1990s, while Central
20 25 Closed autocracies
Asia and Eastern Europe are at post-Soviet Union
2. Power Shifts
20 lows
4. Debt Challenge 10 17 > A notable trait of democracy, freedom of
expression, has declined by the highest number of
Technology 0 countries over the past decade: Attacks on freedom
& Innovation 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 of expression and media freedom are now affecting
31 countries; the mass adoption of social media
3. Humans & Machines The University of Gothenburg varieties of democracies (V-DEM) dataset covers 470+ tools for the purpose of pro-democracy citizen
indicators for 200+ countries; according to V-DEM, electoral democracies are systems protests – first seen during the Arab Spring a
Politics & where a number of institutional features guarantee free and fair elections such as decade ago – has also given rise to abuse (e.g.
Governance freedom of association and freedom of expression; liberal democracies in addition dissemination of fake news or conspiracy theories)
1. Future of Democracy include protection of individual liberties, and the checks and balances between by national and foreign anti-democratic forces
institutions; autocracies (electoral or closed) display a sliding lack of such features
3. Global Risks
54 Source: University of Gothenburg/V-DEM Institute

Trend overview
People & Within democracies, the public mood displays an unhappy trend – A rising
Society
1. Population level of dissatisfaction and democracy fatigue makes for a risky mix
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Dissatisfaction with democracy 1996-2020 [%]
Health &
Care Across the globe, democracy appears to be in a
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards 60 2005-2020: 57.5
state of malaise:
2. Diseases & Treatments 18.8 pp. rise in dissatisfaction
3. Caregiving > Dissatisfaction with democracy has risen over
time and is reaching an all-time global high, in
Environment particular in developed countries
& Resources > 2019 represents the highest level of democratic
50 47.9
discontent on record: nearly 58% are unhappy
with democracy
> The rise in democratic dissatisfaction has been
Economics especially sharp since 2005, with just 38.7% of
& Business 40 citizens dissatisfied in that year. Since then, the
proportion of dissatisfied citizens has risen by
2. Power Shifts 38.7
almost one-fifth of the population (+18.8%)
4. Debt Challenge > Looking more regionally, a notable positive shift is
seen in South East Asian democracies, whereas
Technology 30 Anglo-Saxon countries (North America, the UK,
& Innovation and Australasia) are less happy compared to the
1996 2005 2020 mid-1990s; Europe appears highly fragmented; at
2. Artificial Intelligence present, its 'democratic faith' contains some of the
3. Humans & Machines most uneven levels of dissatisfaction
Politics & The Cambridge University's Centre for the Future of Democracy tracks the 'mood' in 77 > 377 million people are living in democracies that
Governance democracies; observations are based on a constant-country, population-weighted face a genuine legitimacy 'crisis'. These countries
1. Future of Democracy sample of these democracies for which data exists from the mid-1990s to today. This include Mexico, Brazil, Moldova, Colombia, Peru,
represents 2.4 billion individuals across all continents Ukraine, and Venezuela
3. Global Risks
55 Source: University of Cambridge/Bennett Institute for Public Policy

Trend overview
People & Looking ahead, the year 2024 is highly important for global governance and
Society
1. Population democracy – A world at crossroads
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Parliamentary and/or presidential elections 2024
Health &
Care Europe Americas Asia Africa Others > Globally, US President Elect Biden's four year term
& Oceania in office – starting officially in 2021 – is seen as a
3. Caregiving
signal but more so a time under scrutiny, with the
> Andorra > Dominican > Afghanistan > Algeria > EU view to a possible re-set of a more multilateral
Environment > Austria Republic > India > Botswana Parliamentary global engagement, with values more aligned
& Resources > Belgium > Dominica > Indonesia > Comoros elections with Western liberal democratic norms and
> El Salvador > UN Security values: reason, right, and tolerance. What can be
> Croatia > Iran > Egypt achieved by the new US government – and
> Kiribati Council
3. Ecosystems at Risk > Finland > Jordan > Ethiopia Elections potentially even be carried forward into a second
> Georgia > Mexico > Kazakhstan > Ghana term in office in 2024 – remains to be seen
Economics
> Gibraltar > Palau > Kuwait > Madagascar > Thus, the longer term test still lies ahead: 2024 –
& Business
1. Globalization Revisited > Iceland > Panama > Mongolia > Mauritania an already important year for the US but also a
2. Power Shifts > Lithuania > Uruguay > South Korea > Namibia worldwide mammoth election year, where an
> USA unprecedented number of countries and blocs –
> Montenegro > Sri Lanka > Rwanda
4. Debt Challenge ranging across the entire spectrum of electoral
> North > Vanuatu > Syria > Senegal systems, from liberal democracies to autocracies
Technology Macedonia > Venezuela > Taiwan > South Africa – head to parliamentary and/or presidential ballot
& Innovation > Romania > Turkmenistan > Tunisia boxes
> Russia > Uzbekistan > Countries and economic blocs of considerable
3. Humans & Machines > Slovakia global power include USA, Russia, India, the EU
> UK etc., while a high number of regionally important
Politics & countries will decide if their respective national
Governance > Ukraine
political pendulum swings towards a more
1. Future of Democracy democratic governance style – or not
3. Global Risks
56 Source: Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & The future of global governance appears to be in a state of flux – The
Society
1. Population international powerplay is shaped by geopolitical alliances and rivalries
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Four possible futures for global governance
Health &
Care Powerful states
2. Diseases & Treatments Multipolarity Multilateralism
3. Caregiving
> Major powers are the main actors within blocs of close or like-minded > States are the most influential actors in the global order using multilateral
states institutions to cooperate and to reduce global instability
Environment
& Resources > Lead by the major power, cooperation exists within the bloc, while blocs > Current norms and international institutions are likely to be reformed
compete for power and influence against each other through effective processes in order to accommodate the interests of new
> Intense competition leads to instability, resource inequalities and multilateral powers and to address global challenges
3. Ecosystems at Risk institutions becoming ineffective > Strong, effective state institutions have the capacity to address political,
> Emerging powers target vulnerabilities to enhance their position societal, and environmental issues
Cooperation
Competition
Economics > Challenging the 'rule book' triggers conflicts and crises; democratic traits > Governments are able to provide acceptable levels of support and welfare
& Business are under pressure
2. Power Shifts
3. Sectoral Transformation Fragmentation Network of actors
4. Debt Challenge > Global governance is almost impossible: States, corporations, megacities > Power is shared between a variety of state and non-state actors, both
and other non-state actors compete for power in a volatile environment globally and domestically
Technology > Cooperation is rare, unreliable and only self-serving > All actors cooperate to address global challenges under an effective hybrid
& Innovation form of governance, reducing the risk of conflict
> States cannot provide services, this area is exploited by non-state actors
> Due to lack of regulation and protection, inequality and lawlessness rise > Corporations and leaders of megacities are the main players
3. Humans & Machines > The social contract between the state and its people is eroded, causing high > Non-state actors deliver important and essential services
levels of uncertainty and insecurity > Private services are not affordable for many
Politics & > Societal cohesion is reduced due to inequality of access and opportunities
Governance
2. Governance & Geopolitics Diffusion of power
3. Global Risks
57 Sources: UK Government/Ministry of Defence; Roland Berger

Trend overview
People & Today's leaders face a diverse range of global risks now and in the
Society
1. Population decade ahead …
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Top 10 global risks over the next 10 years
Health &
Care Long-term risk Extreme Human environmental Biodiversity Digital Cybersecurity
1. Pandemics & Other Wildcards weather damage loss inequality* failure
outlook:
3. Caregiving Likelihood
Environment Climate action Infectious Digital power Interstate relations Livelihood
& Resources failure diseases concentration* fracture* crises
3. Ecosystems at Risk Long-term risk Infectious Weapons of mass Natural Livelihood
diseases destruction resource crisis crises Debt crises
outlook:
Economics
& Business Impact
2. Power Shifts Climate action Biodiversity Human environmental Extreme IT infrastructure
failure loss damage weather breakdown
4. Debt Challenge
> The World Economic Forum's Global Risks Report is based on its annual Global Risks Perception Survey, completed by more than 800 members
Technology from the WEF's extensive network of business, government, civil society, and thought leaders. Input for the 2021 report was sought in the fall of
& Innovation 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The WEF defines global risk as an "uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, can cause significant
1. Value of Technology negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years" – denoting a longer-term perspective
3. Humans & Machines > Amongst the WEF Global Risks 2021 assessment, infectious diseases risks are – unsurprisingly – at the forefront of members surveyed, top in
terms of impact but also in the top 5 in terms of likelihood – the latter pointing perhaps to future concerns of repeat or similar health crises
Politics & > Notable this year, technological risks are more visible than for some time in the top 10; especially risks relating to digitalization appear to simmer
Governance just below the top 5 risk surface in terms of likelihood and include two out of 12 new risks (*) included in the survey this year; equally topical,
1. Future of Democracy ongoing major rivalries between political powers have also left their mark in a new risk (fracture of interstate relations) joining the top ranks
3. Global Risks
Economic Environmental Geopolitical Societal Technological
58 Sources: WEF; Roland Berger
Trend overview
People & … while historically and across all categories, risk awareness has broadly
Society
1. Population shifted from the economy to the environment
2. Migration
3. Values
4. Education Top 5 risk categories by likelihood and Global risks surveyed 2021
Health & impact, 2007-2021
Care
Economic Societal Geopolitical
3. Caregiving > Asset bubble burst in large > Collapse or lack of social > Collapse of a multi-lateral
economies security systems1) institution1)
Environment
Likelihood
> Collapse of a systemically > Employment and livelihood > Fracture of interstate
& Resources important industry1) crises relations1)
1. Climate Change & Pollution > Debt crises in large > Erosion of social cohesion > Geopolitization of strategic
2. Resources & Raw Materials economies > Failure of public resources1)
3. Ecosystems at Risk > Failure to stabilize price infrastructure > Interstate conflict
trajectories > Infectious diseases > State collapse
Economics > Proliferation of illicit > Large-scale involuntary > Terrorist attacks
& Business economic activity migration > Weapons of mass
1. Globalization Revisited > Prolonged economic > Pervasive backlash against destruction
2. Power Shifts stagnation1) science1)
3. Sectoral Transformation > Severe commodity shocks > Severe mental health Technological
4. Debt Challenge deterioration1)
> Adverse outcomes of
> Widespread youth technological advances
Technology Environmental
Impact
disillusionment1)
& Innovation > Breakdown of critical
> Biodiversity loss and information infrastructure
ecosystem collapse > Digital inequality1)
3. Humans & Machines > Climate action failure > Digital power concentration1)
> Extreme weather events > Failure of cybersecurity
Politics & > Human-made environmental measures
Governance damage > Failure of technology
1. Future of Democracy 2007 2021 > Natural resource crises governance1)
3. Global Risks 1) Denotes new risk
59 Source: WEF; Roland Berger

Authors
Dr. Christian Krys Dr. David Born

Senior Expert Manager
Roland Berger Institute Roland Berger Institute
+49 (211) 4389-2917 +49 (69) 29924-6500
christian.krys@rolandberger.com david.born@rolandberger.com
60
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Six megatrends that will shape the world by 2050

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Trend

Population Pandemics & Climate Change Globalization Value of Future of

Population Migration Values Education

11 Sources: World Bank; IOM

People & According to the UN 1 in 10 children are subjected to

12 Sources: Roland Berger; UNHCR; ILGA; Human Dignity Trust

People & The evolution of human freedoms paints a mixed picture –

13 Sources: Roland Berger; Cato Institute; Foresight Alliance

19 Sources: WHO; Roland Berger

Environment Central African

Economics India 246

21 Sources: WHO; Roland Berger

3. Ecosystems at Risk Cell and Gene Therapies affordable Superbugs proliferate

Environment [EUR bn]

24 Sources: UN Population Division; WHO; Alzheimer's Association; Roland Berger

25 Sources: PHI; Alzheimer's Association; US Department of Health and Human Services

Is the limit of 2°C enough?

People & An inconvenient truth about energy consumption: Unless coordinated

Politics & ecotourism, and phytoplankton productivity (capturing 37 billion tons

36 Sources: UN/IPBES; WEF; IMF

37 Sources: Paulson Institute/Cornell/Nature Conservancy

42 Sources: Oxford Economics; EEAS; Roland Berger

43 Source: Roland Berger

44 Source: Institute for International Finance

People & Technology investment and innovation capabilities remain key –

years USD 110

People & The progression of AI capabilities is expected to be near limitless –

51 Sources: Pew Research; CNBC

People & The future of (liberal) democracy is under threat – (Electoral)

& Resources > Nationally, this shift is exemplified by Hungary,

54 Source: University of Gothenburg/V-DEM Institute

55 Source: University of Cambridge/Bennett Institute for Public Policy

56 Source: Roland Berger

57 Sources: UK Government/Ministry of Defence; Roland Berger

59 Source: WEF; Roland Berger

Dr. Christian Krys Dr. David Born

Page 1 monsitj/Adobe Stock Page 29 Olivier Le Moal/Adobe Stock

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