WED 11 AUG 2021

Top Stories:

Economy: 2Q21 GDP up 11.8%, above consensus forecast (AS OF AUG 10, 2020)
INDICES
DMC: DMC’s 1H21 net income ahead of forecasts
PNB: 2Q21 net income surges to Php20.3Bil on one-off gain; above Close Points % YTD%
PSEi 6,623.23 -9.34 -0.14 -7.23
estimates All Shares 4,095.98 2.11 0.05 -4.13
MWC: 2Q21 earnings up 35.2% y/y on improved Non-East Zone operations Financials 1,431.28 -4.04 -0.28 -1.13
MPI: MPI receives offer to combine tollway assets with foreign operator Holding Firms 6,641.15 4.02 0.06 -9.70
Industrial 9,365.14 6.88 0.07 -0.30
Mining & Oil 9,742.35 204.58 2.14 2.25
Property 3,070.85 -15.68 -0.51 -16.20

Other News: Services 1,634.60 -5.95 -0.36 7.96

Dow Jones 35,101.85 -107 -0.30 14.69

Banking Sector: Non-performing loans continue to climb in June S&P 500 4,432.35 -4.17 -0.09 18.00
Nasdaq 24.42 0.16 15.30
Economy: FDI net inflows slide to lowest in over a year
14,860.18

INDEX GAINERS

COVID-19 Update: Ticker Company Price %

DMC DMCI Hldgs Inc 5.70 4.01
SMC San Miguel Corp 113.00 3.76
Total Cases Total Deaths Total Recoveries
MEG Megaworld Corporation 2.90 2.84
Philippines 1,676,156 (+8,560) 29,220 (+92) 1,567,920 (+7,964) LTG LT Group Inc 9.96 2.68
AP Aboitiz Power Corp 23.80 2.59
USA 36,880,543 (+93,581) 634,608 (+617) 29,960,249 (+36,912)
INDEX LOSERS
Worldwide 204,703,637 (+589,901) 4,325,459 (+9,639) 183,847,626 (+565,710)
Ticker Company Price %
BLOOM Bloomberry Resorts 5.90 -3.28
ALI Ayala Land Inc 33.20 -1.78
PGOLD Puregold Price Club 39.00 -1.76
Market Summary: EMP Emperador Inc 12.88 -1.68
BDO BDO Unibank Inc 109.10 -1.53

The local stock market declined on Tuesday as the ongoing pandemic continued to cloud
sentiment despite the better-than-expected 2Q21 gross domestic product (GDP) data. TOP 5 MOST ACTIVE STOCKS
Ticker Company Turnover
EMP Emperador Inc 431,796,900
The PSEi lost 9.34 points or 0.14% to close at 6,623.23. The main drags were BLOOM DMC DMCI Hldgs Inc 239,010,400
(-3.28%), ALI (-1.78%), PGOLD (-1.76%), EMP (-1.68%), and BDO (-1.53%). On the other ALI Ayala Land Inc 212,599,400

hand, the top movers were DMC (+4.01%), SMC (+3.76%), MEG (+2.84%), LTG (+2.68%), ICT Intl Container Term 199,510,600
SMPH SM Prime Hldgs Inc 180,438,200
and AP (+2.59%).

Value turnover inched down to Php6.3Bil from the Php6.4Bil seen in the previous session.
Meanwhile, net foreign selling declined to Php26.7Mil from the Php169.2Mil registered
on Monday.

Disclaimer: All content provided in COL Reports are meant to be read in the COL Financial website. Accuracy and completeness of content cannot be guaranteed if reports are viewed outside of the
COL Financial website as these may be subject to tampering or unauthorized alterations.
 DAILY NOTES I PHILIPPINE EQUITY RESEARCH

WED 11 AUG 2021

Top Stories:

April Tan, CFA Economy: 2Q21 GDP up 11.8%, above consensus

Chief Equity Strategist
forecast
2Q21 GDP grew strongly by 11.8%, largely due to the low base effect. Recall that GDP
fell by 17.0% in the second quarter last year as the government imposed strict lockdown
measures across the country to control the spread of COVID-19 infections. Growth in the
second quarter was also faster than Bloomberg consensus forecast of 10.9% and the first
time for GDP growth to turn positive after five consecutive quarters of decline.

According to industrial origin, growth was driven by the 20.8% and 9.6% increase in
the Industry and Services sectors respectively. The double-digit growth of the Industry
sector was attributable to the sharp rebound of the manufacturing and construction sub-
sectors which increased by 22.3% and 25.7% respectively. Meanwhile, the Agriculture,
Fishery and Forestry sector suffered from a 0.1% drop, largely due to a decline in pork
production.

On the demand side, GDP growth was driven by the rebound of Household Final
Consumption Expenditure (+7.2%) and Gross Capital Formation (+75.5%), benefiting from
the loosening of lockdown restrictions. The sharp increase in Gross Capital Formation was
led by higher purchase of durable goods (+89.2%) and increased construction activity by
both the public (+49.7%) and the private sector (+19.1%). Government noted the 94.9%
jump in private sector investments, viewing it as a sign that businesses are learning to
live with the virus.

Meanwhile, Government Spending fell 4.9% due to high base effect as the government
rolled out large amounts of emergency subsidies last year.

Despite the strong year-on-year growth, seasonally adjusted second quarter GDP
actually fell by 1.3% on a quarter-on-quarter basis. The drop was most likely due to the
government’s decision to reimpose ECQ and MECQ during the second quarter to control
the surge in infections. On the positive side, the Industry sector remained resilient, still
growing by 1.1% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, as most businesses belonging to the said
sector remained operational even with the tightening of restrictions during the second
quarter.

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Notwithstanding the reimposition of ECQ in the third quarter, the government remains
optimistic about sustaining the momentum of economic recovery. One of the reasons for
the government’s optimism is the expected arrival of another 148 Mil doses of vaccines
for the remainder of 2021 which is enough to fully vaccinate more than 70 Mil Filipinos.
The full vaccination of more than 70% of the population should allow the government to
reopen the economy without risking a sharp increase in number of hospitalizations and
deaths.

Given the stronger than expected 2Q21 growth numbers, average GDP growth would
have to reach 6.1% during the second half of the year for the full year number to reach
the consensus forecast of 5.0%.

George Ching DMC: DMC’s 1H21 net income ahead of forecasts

Senior Research Manager
DMC’s 1H21 net income ahead of forecasts. Excluding one-offs items pertaining to
DMCI Hldgs Inc.
deferred tax re-measurement in relation to the CREATE ACT and gain on land sale, DMC’s
BUY
Php10.84 2Q21 core earnings increased 166.3% to Php4.23Bil. This brought 1H21 core net income
to Php8.3Bil, up 216.8% y/y, exceeding both COL forecast (84.6%), and above consensus
forecast (74.2%). Earnings beat forecasts as the net income contribution of all major
subsidiaries was higher than estimates.

Exhibit 1: DMC Results Summary

source: DMC, COL estimates

Exhibit 2: DMC Earnings Breakdown

source: DMC, COL estimates

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SCC net income exceed estimates. SCC’s 1H21 earnings increased 181% to Php6.28Bil,
above COL forecasts (93.1%) and consensus forecast (80%). The sharp rise in earnings
was mainly driven by the coal mining segment’s profits. Total revenues during 1H21
before eliminations rose 73.4% y/y to Php25.7Bil, higher than forecasts (65.1% of COL
full year forecast). Revenues from the coal mining segment increased 86% to Php18.9Bil,
representing 76.5% of our full year forecast. Meanwhile, power generation revenue rose
by 45% to Php6.86Bil, representing 46.1% of our full year forecast. Earnings beat estimates
due to the coal business’ better than expected earnings.

Maynilad’s earnings ahead of forecast on lower than expected operating expense.

Water distribution subsidiary Maynilad reported a 15.2% decline in 1H21 core earnings
to Php3.03Bil. Despite the decline, 1H21 core earnings were ahead of COL forecast,
representing 62% of our full year forecast. Revenues declined 2.1% to Php11.2Bil, below
forecast, representing 42.5% of our forecast. Sales volume declined 3% to 261.1MCM
(residential volume -2%, commercial -9%, industrial +5%), representing 46% of our full
year forecast, while, effective tariff rose 1.1% to Php42.9/cu.m, 6.4% lower than forecast.
The decline in tariff was the result of sales volume being skewed towards residential
customers (which has lower tariff compared to industrial and commercial customers).
Earnings were in line with forecast mainly due to the lower than expected operating
expense. Operating expense rose 11.7% to Php5.9Bil, representing only 32.2% of our full
year forecast.

DMCI Homes’ earnings exceed forecast on higher than expected revenues.

Excluding one-off losses from sales cancellation in 2020 and deferred tax and income
tax adjustment in 2021, DMCI Homes reported recurring net income of Php2.4Bil during
1H21, significantly higher than a net income of only Php60Mil during the same period last
year. 1H21 net income exceeded forecast, representing 103% of our full year forecast.
This was mainly due to DMCI Home’s higher than expected revenues for the period, with
1H21 revenues rising by 130% to Php13Bil, representing 72% of our full year forecast,
as higher rate of project completion increased the company’s revenue recognition.
Meanwhile, operating profit amounted to Php3.08Bil (89% of full year forecast), with EBIT
margin of 24%, higher than our EBIT margin forecast of 20%. Sales and reservations rose
10% to Php11.4Bil.

Construction business’ earnings beat forecast on higher revenues. Excluding the

gain from land sale, DMC’s construction business generated a core net income of
Php655Mil in 1H21, up 708% y/y. 1H21 results are higher than COL’s full year forecast,
representing 58% of COL forecast. Revenues rose 85% to Php11.8Bil during the period,
representing 62% of our full year forecast, as quarantine restrictions eased which allow
more construction activities. This was more than offset by higher cost and expenses.
Cost and expenses rose 84% to Php10.8Bil, representing 61.2% of our full year forecast.

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Management said that costs and expenses grew in line with higher productivity, the rise
in the cost of construction materials, as well as higher provisioning for infrastructure
projects with pending claims.

Nickel business’ earnings surge on improving production volume and selling

price. DMC’s nickel mining operations net profit increased 306% to Php979Mil during
1H21, representing 400% of our full year forecast. Earnings rose sharply as shipments
increased 45% to 1.24Mil WMT. The higher shipment was supported by a 62% increase
in production as the company boosted mining activities to take advantage of the rise in
nickel prices. Nickel prices increased 57% to US$44/WMT, driven by higher demand from
China as its economy continues to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as higher
demand from the EV market. In terms of the outlook for nickel prices, management
believes that nickel prices will remain firm in 2H21 and 2022 due to the strong demand
from China (China nickel stockpile continues to decline) as well as the rise in demand
from EV market going forward. As a result of the stronger than expected 1H21 results,
we are raising our FY21 net income forecast for the nickel mining business by 387% to
Php1.17Bil, and our FY22 net income forecast by 271% to Php961Mil.

Reiterate BUY rating on DMC. In line with the increase in our net income forecast by
SCC and DMC’s nickel mining business, we are increasing our FY21E earnings forecast
by 55% to Php15.3Bil, and our FY22E forecast by 20% to Php15.5Bil. We are also raising
our FV estimate by 16.7% to Php10.83/sh. We are maintaining our BUY rating on DMC.
We like DMC given that we believe that earnings have bottomed out in 2020(with 1H21
earnings increasing by 217% y/y following a 47% decline in 2020 due to the impact of the
Covid-19 pandemic). DMC’s stock price has 0.7% in the YTD period, outperforming the
PSEI’s 7.2% decline. DMC is trading at 2022E P/E of 4.9X, below its historical P/E of 11.2X.
Based on its actual 2021 cash dividend of Php0.48/sh, this provides a very high dividend
yield of 8.4%. Upside to our FV estimate is also very high at 90%.

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John Martin Luciano, CFA

PNB: 2Q21 net income surges to Php20.3Bil on
Senior Research Analyst
one-off gain; above estimates
Philippine National Bank
BUY 2Q21 net income surges to Php20.3Bil on one-off gain; above estimates. PNB’s net
Php51.20 income during the second quarter surged to Php20.3Bil from Php39.0Mil during the
same quarter last year (low base). This jump was primarily caused by a one-off gain
worth Php33.6Bil following the increase in the market values of the three prime real
estate properties transferred to PNB Holdings Corporation in exchange for shares. Fee-
income (+59.5% y/y) also posted strong growth amidst the recovery of volume related
transactions and investment banking revenues. On the other hand, note that the bank took
advantage of the one-off gain to book substantial provisioning (+232.5% y/y) during the
quarter which caused its NPL cover to improve to 60% from 43% in 1Q21. Meanwhile, net
interest income during the quarter was flat y/y at Php8.7Bil as the increase in volume was
offset by lower margins y/y. The first half earnings reached Php22.1Bil, up substantially
from Php1.4Bil last year. This already exceeded the full-year forecasts of both COL and
consensus at Php5.2Bil and Php6.0Bil, respectively. The outperformance was driven by
the one-off gain as well as stronger-than-expected trading gains and fees, partially offset
by higher-than-expected provisions.

Exhibit 1: Results Summary

source: PNB, COL estimates

Maintain BUY. We currently have a BUY rating on PNB with a FV estimate of Php51.2/
sh. We expect PNB to benefit as the economy gradually recovers amidst the arrival of
the vaccines. Note that the bank’s asset quality was severely impacted by the COVID-19
pandemic. Nevertheless, the bank allocated higher provisioning in the second quarter,
causing NPL cover to improve to 60% from 43% in 1Q21. In addition, we believe that the
increasing supply of vaccines as well as the acceleration of the government’s rollout will
mitigate the risk of prolonged quarantine restrictions. At its current price, the bank is only
trading at 0.2X 2021E P/BV, the lowest among banks in our coverage and significantly
below the industry average of 0.7X.

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Frances Rolfa Nicolas MWC: 2Q21 earnings up 35.2% y/y on improved

Research Analyst
Non-East Zone operations
Manila Water Company
HOLD 2Q21 earnings up 35.2% y/y on improved Non-East Zone operations. MWC’s 2Q21
Php18.50 earnings grew by 35.2% y/y to Php1.4Bil mainly due to the improvement in the company’s
domestic subsidiaries (MWPV), and international investments (MWAP). Meanwhile,
the East Zone business registered higher profits only due to the presence of foreign
exchange gains and lower taxes. These brought 1H21 earnings to Php2.7Bil, up 10.3%
y/y. Meanwhile, operating performance, as measured by EBITDA, was flattish at Php6.5Bil.
Results underperformed COL estimate accounting for 46.4% of our full year forecast but
in line with consensus estimates at 49.1%. The miss in our estimate was brought about
by the weaker-than-expected performance of the East Zone segment.

Exhibit 1: Results Summary

source: MWC, COL estimates, Bloomberg

Exhibit 2: Segment earnings summary

source: MWC

East Zone earnings up 7.1% on forex gains and lower taxes. East Zone’s 2Q21 net
income grew by 7.1% y/y to Php1.4Bil mainly due to recognized foreign exchange gains
and lower tax expenses. Meanwhile, revenues declined by ~4% as a result of lower billed
volume and lower average tariff. Note that the decline in average tariff was brought
about by the lower contribution of the commercial and industrial segments amid the
pandemic. Moreover, costs and expenses increased by ~22% due to the ramp-up of
postponed activities last year and higher personnel and fixed costs.

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MWPV losses narrows to Php38Mil on higher contribution from Clark and Laguna Water
Manila Water Philippine Ventures’ (MWPV) 2Q21 net loss reached Php38Mil, narrower
compared to the Php57Mil losses registered in the same period last year. The improvement
was brought about by the contribution of Clark Water and Laguna Water. Specifically, Clark
Water’s profits grew more than six fold due to lower operating expenses, while Laguna
Water’s earnings rose 26.7% y/y due to higher billed volumes. Meanwhile, Boracay Water
and Estate Water continued to sustain losses as a result of the decline in tourist arrivals
and higher depreciation expenses respectively.

Exhibit 3: Net income contribution from domestic subsidiaries

source: MWC

Exhibit 4: Billed volume

source: MWC

MWAP income reaches Php100Mil on higher income from associates. Manila Water
Asia Pacific’s (MWAP) 2Q21 net income reached Php100Mil, a reversal from the Php126Mil
net loss registered in 2Q20. The swing to profit was brought about by the improvement
in equity share in net income from associates. Specifically, East Water’s earnings reached
Php53Mil, a reversal from the Php159Mil loss registered in 2Q20 as a result of the recovery
from drought and impact of fair value adjustment. Likewise, Thu Duc and Kenh Dong
Water’s profits grew ~10% y/y due to continued growth and lower interest expense.
Furthermore, the company’s new contract with Saudi Arabia’s state run water agency,
National Water Company, contributed Php2Mil in profits during the quarter.

Finalizes subscription agreement with Trident Water. The company has finalized its
subscription agreement with Trident Water. Note that Trident Water led by Enrique K.
Razon Jr (EKR) now has 51% voting interest, and 25% economic stake in the east zone
concessionaire. Recall that in February 2020, Razon’s company signed a subscription
agreement with MWC for 820Mil common shares at Php13/sh. Moreover, MWC’s
subsidiary, Philwater Holdings, also granted proxy rights to Trident Water over its number

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of preferred shares. The entry of EKR to the company is expected to contribute to its growth
in terms of international expansion. Note that EKR has various concession agreements in
foreign markets such as Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Middle East among others.

Maintain HOLD rating. We currently have a HOLD rating and FV estimate of Php18.5/
sh on MWC. We await the specific details of the revised concession agreement including
capital expenditures and tariff rates as these will determine the outlook of the company.

George Ching
Senior Research Manager
MPI: MPI receives offer to combine tollway assets
with foreign operator
Metro Pacific Investments Corp.
BUY MPI receives offer to combine tollway assets with foreign operator. MPI disclosed
Php8.30 that it has received an offer from a foreign tollway operator to combine its assets with
MPTC. MPI said that if the deal pushes through, this will make the combined entity the
biggest tollway operator in ASEAN. MPI clarified that talks between the two parties
expressed only preliminary indication of interest, and nothing is yet concrete with the
deal

Maintaining BUY rating on MPI. We have a buy rating on MPI with a FV estimate of
Php8.30/sh. We believe that while it is still uncertain how the new concession agreement
will impact the outlook and value of Maynilad, investor sentiment on MPI could improve
going forward as the new concession agreement will ease uncertainties on Maynilad, as
well as concerns on MPI’s other regulated core businesses. Based on MPI’s current market
price of Php3.72/sh, the company is trading at a 61% discount to its NAV which implies
that Maynilad and its toll road business are already worthless. MPI is trading below its
46% stake in Meralco(equivalent to 151% of MPI’s current market capitalization). Even if
we assumed the worst-case scenario where Maynilad would become worthless, capital
appreciation potential based on MPI’s current price is still 102% to Php7.35/sh.

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Other News:

Research Analysts Banking Sector: Non-performing loans continue to climb in June

John Martin Luciano, CFA Non-performing loans of banks continued to climb in June, reflecting the effects of
Frances Rolfa Nicolas the pandemic to the lenders’ asset quality. Bad loans rose 73.9% y/y and 0.7% m/m to
Justin Richmond Cheng
Php483.0Bil in June. Despite the increase in bad loans, NPL ratio slightly eased to 4.48%
Adrian Alexander Yu
from the 4.49% seen in the previous month. Meanwhile, past due loans increased by
Kerwin Malcolm Chan
51.2% y/y to Php577.1Bil. However, this declined by 2.7% m/m. The sequential decrease
caused the ratio to total loan portfolio to improve to 5.36% (vs 5.56% in May). On the
other hand, restructured loans increased by 575% y/y and 24.7% m/m to Php328.6Bil.
This caused the ratio to total loan portfolio to deteriorate to 3.05% (vs 2.47% in May).
Meanwhile, banks continued to boost loan loss reserves as NPL coverage ratio improved
to 82.36% (vs 79.96%). (Source: Businessworld, BSP)

Economy: FDI net inflows slide to lowest in over a year

The BSP showed that in May, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows fell by 25.4% y/y and
36.8% q/q to US$429Mil, the lowest seen since April 2020. The central bank noted that
the lower FDIs reflect renewed investor concerns on the rising cases of new and more
contagious COVID-19 variants around the world, particularly Delta. Nevertheless, Colegio
de San Juan de Letran Graduate School Dean Emmanual Lopez expects a slow recovery
in FDI as the country exits from recession and the investment climate becomes more
conducive. Despite the decline in May, FDI net inflows rose by 37.8% y/y for the first 5
months of 2021 to US$3.48Bil. The central bank expects FDI net inflows to reach US$7.5Bil
this year. (Source: Bworldonline)

Changes in Shareholdings
Date of Acquired or Price per
Stock Volume Person (Designation)
Disclosure Disposed share
Jose Noel M. Mendoza
10-Aug BDO 37,000 D 111.00
(Senior Vice President)
Edwin R. Tajanlangit
10-Aug BDO 800 D 109.20
(Senior Vice President)
Jose Miguel T. Manalang
10-Aug URC 800 A 132.00
(Director, Strategy & Investor Relations)
Source: PSE

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I M P O R TA N T R AT ING DEFINITIONS
BUY
Stocks that have a BUY rating have attractive fundamentals and valuations based on our analysis. We expect the share price to outperform the market in the
next six to 12 months.

HOLD
Stocks that have a HOLD rating have either 1) attractive fundamentals but expensive valuations 2) attractive valuations but near-term earnings outlook might
be poor or vulnerable to numerous risks. Given the said factors, the share price of the stock may perform merely in line or underperform in the market in the
next six to twelve months.

SELL
We dislike both the valuations and fundamentals of stocks with a SELL rating. We expect the share price to underperform in the next six to12 months.

I M P O R TA N T DISC L AIM ER
Securities recommended, offered or sold by COL Financial Group, Inc. are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.
Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources we believe to be reliable, we do not guarantee its accuracy and said information may
be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute the judgment of COL’s Equity Research Department as of the date of the report and are
subject to change without prior notice. This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of
a security. COL Financial and/or its employees not involved in the preparation of this report may have investments in securities of derivatives of the companies
mentioned in this report and may trade them in ways different from those discussed in this report.

CO L R E S EAR C H T EAM

APRIL LYNN TAN, CFA

CHIEF EQUITY STRATEGIST
april.tan@colfinancial.com

CHARLES WILLIAM ANG, CFA GEORGE CHING RICHARD LAÑEDA, CFA

HEAD OF RESEARCH SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER SENIOR RESEARCH MANAGER
charles.ang@colfinancial.com george.ching@colfinancial.com richard.laneda@colfinancial.com

JOHN MARTIN LUCIANO, CFA FRANCES ROLFA NICOLAS JUSTIN RICHMOND CHENG, CFA
SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST
john.luciano@colfinancial.com rolfa.nicolas@colfinancial.com justin.cheng@colfinancial.com

ADRIAN ALEXANDER YU KERWIN MALCOLM CHAN

SENIOR RESEARCH ANALYST RESEARCH ANALYST
adrian.yu@colfinancial.com kerwin.chan@colfinancial.com

C OL F INANC IAL G R O UP, IN C.

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EXCHANGE ROAD, ORTIGAS CENTER, PASIG CITY
PHILIPPINES 1605
TEL NO. +632 636-5411
FAX NO. +632 635-4632
WEBSITE: www.colfinancial.com

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