Climate Change

The scientific discovery of climate change can be traced back to the early 19th century,
when puzzling findings were made amidst the forward-marching progress of modern
sciences. 1 The unearthing of fossils and other evidence made scientists suspect the
occurrence of ice ages and other natural variances, which might have accounted for the
discovery of ancient animal and plant species of diverse shapes and sizes within habitats
unthinkable for the scientific mindset of the time. It was the rapid development of
systematic methodologies and logical resources what allowed researchers to connect the
gathered data and identify key phenomena such as the carbon cycle, the greenhouse
effect and climate variability, critical steps to understanding the relative harmony of the
tremendous forces unleashing in our atmosphere. 2

Soon, consensus was reached that climate –i.e. the historical state of the components of
weather, such as the atmosphere, the ocean, and the ice on Earth– was concordantly
determined by phenomena which included volcanism and gas concentrations in the
atmosphere together with solar variation and the amount of radiation reaching the
surface of the planet. 3 As the mid-20th century, glacial evidence mounted in favour of
the idea that human activities might be accountable for a good portion of climate
variation, as development had been driving the emission of millions of tonnes of carbon
dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) –the notorious greenhouse gases (GHGs)– on an
unstoppable daily basis. In the 1960s, scholars began to raise concerns about a would-
be climate disaster should the rate of emissions continue to grow as exponentially as it
seemingly was, given the serious local problems many urban areas were undergoing,
mainly due to aerosol pollution, known at the time as ‘smog’. By the 1970s, most
scientists increasingly predicted warming of the atmosphere and the sea. 4

In 1988, the United Nations (UN) appointed the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), a body for assessing the scientific information produced worldwide
related to climate change. 5 To date, several assessments have reviewed the most recent
information available on the issue, with the latest of them stating:

Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century
is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas
concentrations. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from
observations of increases of global average air temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. 6

This document reflects the mainstream scientific position, which fundamentally

maintains the warming of Earth’s climate, its anthropogenic nature –i.e., produced by
human activities– and the pressing need to reduce GHG emissions in order to lower
future impacts. Thus, the scientific community arrived at the concept of climate sensitivity,
which refers to the amount of warming that will occur on the Earth’s surface in response
to a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere as compared to pre-industrial
levels –i.e., concentrations prior to 1850. Estimates presented a grim outlook.

CO2 concentrations were found likely to impact other lesser levels of organisation.
Biological, social, and economic systems are bound to be seriously affected as weather
patterns change and agriculture and economic predictability become less and less
certain. 7 In addition, the effect of more intense weather events prompted by gas
concentrations were tied to an increased probability of superstorms, heatwaves,
droughts, wildfires, floods, and other disastrous occurrences. For this reason, the UN
has determined that immediate action need to be taken to mitigate impact and attempt
to revert the emission of GHGs by negotiating an agreement –known as the 2015 Paris
Agreement– by which all 195 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) signatory countries commit to work towards long-term goals that
should keep the increase in global average temperature well below the 2 °C mark above
pre-industrial levels. 8 In this way, world leaders expect to help reduce risks on diverse
sensitive systems involving food production, population living in vulnerable coastal
areas, disaster mitigation, and sustainability.

Yet some scholars have voiced their dissent from the reported effects the observed
variations of gas concentrations are having or might have in the future. The current
measures proposed by the Paris Agreement, which are backed by the IPCC data, have
been dubbed ‘alarmist’ by respected meteorological researchers as MIT’s Richard
Lindzen. 9 Even though they agree with the evidence that shows a marked change in
climatic patterns, they dismiss the idea that it is being largely produced by human
activity. If such were the case, they favour the collection of data in the next 50 years in
order to adequately respond to the effects without disrupting present-day policies and
production systems, which aim to help weaker nations reach their goals in terms of
economic growth and social development. In other words, they hold that climate change,
as it is being sold to the public, is sheer fabrication or, at least, gross exaggeration. Small
wonder that a significant number of world leaders have endorsed this conservative
outlook at the expense of more sustainability-oriented policies and decisions.

Take US President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of the commitment and obligations
pledged by the world’s nations, has decided to pull the United States out of the Paris
Agreement, a measure heavily criticised by academicians and activists alike.1011
Widespread international disapproval has not prevented Mr Trump from drastically
reverting the US green policies, once aimed at curbing GHG emissions, reducing
industrial pollutant output regulations and funding scientific research with federal
resources. Among other reoriented goals, he has smoothed the path for oil companies to
expand business through the development of a 3,500 km pipeline system between the
US and Canada which will invade wildlife sanctuaries. To date, the National Geographic
Society has been keeping a list of unfortunate decisions made by Mr Trump, which has
continued to grow longer than 70 entries since 2017. 12 The scientific community has
largely rebelled against his decisions to relax green compliant regulations and increase
the US carbon footprint, and denounced his insensible stance amidst global efforts.
Likewise, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro announced intentions to further exploit the Amazon’s
resources, at the expense of wildlife and indigenous communities, clearly depict the
impact of deniability. 13

As for now, the respective extents to which climate change is being pressed by human
activities or natural variance remain unclear and difficult to distinguish, yet given our
current understanding of all things implied, it appears to be the right moment to exceed
short-term financial expectations and set an agenda for an authentically sustainable
future. In Washington State incumbent Governor, Jay Inslee’s words:

We are the first generation to feel the impact of climate change – and the last generation
that can actually do something about it. 14

The transition to a balanced use of natural resources is a duty with a view to securing
not only prosperity, but mainly survival of our civilisation and even our species. Action
perceived as feel-good gestures must become an unequivocal political movement that
accompanies our discovery of both the intricacies of complexity and the underlying
opportunities. If not resisted, climate change might imply big business for companies
and communities undertaking transformations, with a potential to bring nations closer
to a healthier relationship with Earth and among individuals.

Daniel Fabra Isaac

Language II
IPA

References
1 Mann, C. (2018-01-23) Meet the Amateur Scientist Who Discovered Climate Change. WIRED. Retrieved
from https://www.wired.com/story/meet-the-amateur-scientist-who-discovered-climate-change/
2 Arrhenius, S. (1896) XXXI. On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the

Ground. The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science. Retrieved
from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14786449608620846
3 Arrhenius, S. (1896) XXXI. On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air Upon the Temperature of the

Ground. The London, Edinburgh, and Dublin Philosophical Magazine and Journal of Science. Retrieved
from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14786449608620846.
4 Dyurgerov, M. B., Meier, M. F. (2000-02-15) Twentieth Century Climate Change: Evidence from

Small Glaciers. PNAS. Retieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC26446/

5 Union of Concerned Scientists (2008-07-16) The IPCC: Who Are They and Why Do Their Climate Reports

Matter? UCS. Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ipcc-who-are-they

6 IPCC (2014) AR5 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2014. Retrieved from

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
7 Hansen, J., D. Johnson, A. Lacis, S. Lebedeff, P. Lee, D. Rind, and G. Russell (1981) Climate impact of

increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Science. Retrieved from

https://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/abs/ha04600x.html
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https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/international/negotiations/progress_en
9 Hazan, M. (2013-06-13) Climate change: Fact or fiction? Head-To-Head – Al Jazeera. Retrieved from

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAbELlpAxe8
10 Aton, A. (2019-10-09) As Trump Administration Downplays Warming, Agencies Chronicle Climate Impacts.

Scientific American. Retrieved from https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/as-trump-

administration-downplays-warming-agencies-chronicle-climate-impacts/
11 Union of Concerned Scientists (2008-07-16) The IPCC: Who Are They and Why Do Their Climate

Reports Matter? UCS. Retrieved from https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/ipcc-who-are-they

12 Greshko, M., Parker, L., Howard, B.C., Stone, D., Borunda, A., Gibbens, S. (2017) A Running List of

How President Trump is Changing Environmental Policy. National Geographic. Retrieved from
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2017/03/how-trump-is-changing-science-environment/
13 Phillips, D. (2019-01-02) Jair Bolsonaro Launches Assault on Amazon Rainforest Protections. The

Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/02/brazil-jair-bolsonaro-

amazon-rainforest-protections
14 Puttnam, D. (2014-09-13) The reality of climate change – TEDx Dublin. Retrieved from

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBjtO-0tbKU