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Hero Moto Corp
Hero Moto Corp
INCOME
Revenue from operations ₹ 30,984
Other income ₹ 522
Total Income ₹ 31,506
Expenses
Cost of material consumed ₹ 19,019
Purchase of stock in trade ₹ -
Change in inventories of finished goods traded goods and workin progress ₹ 97
Excise duty on sale of goods ₹ 2,373
Employee benefit expensess ₹ 1,432
Other expenses ₹ 3,486
Total Expenses ₹ 26,407
Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Tax (EBITDA) ₹ 5,099
Finance Cost ₹ 27
Depreciation and amortisation expense ₹ 502
Earnings Before Associate's share of profit and Exceptional Items and Tax ₹ 4,569
Share of profit(loss) of associates ₹ 55
Gain in dilution of interest associate ₹ 262
Exceptional Item ₹ -
profit before tax ₹ 4,886
Tax expense
Total tax expensess ₹ 1,339
Current Assets
Inventories ₹ 709 ₹ 963 ₹ 1,250 ₹ 1,282
Financial Assets:
Investments ₹ 4,544 ₹ 5,591 ₹ 3,174 ₹ 4,709
Trade Receivables ₹ 1,552 ₹ 1,427 ₹ 2,745 ₹ 1,512
Cash And Cash Equalents ₹ 74 ₹ 131 ₹ 208 ₹ 305
Bank Balance Other Than Above ₹ 121 ₹ 107 ₹ 96 ₹ 130
Loans ₹ 25 ₹ 29 ₹ 25 ₹ 24
Other Financial Assets ₹ 145 ₹ 543 ₹ 654 ₹ 364
Other Current Assets ₹ 401 ₹ 212 ₹ 262 ₹ 323
Total Current Assets ₹ 7,571 ₹ 9,002 ₹ 8,413 ₹ 8,649
Total assets ₹ 15,312 ₹ 17,397 ₹ 18,503.47 ₹ 19,674
LIABILITIES
Non Current Liabilities
Finacial Liabilities:
Borrowings ₹ 208 ₹ 150 ₹ 125 ₹ 44
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 208
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Provisions ₹ 76 ₹ 119 ₹ 121 ₹ 124
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) ₹ 469 ₹ 582 ₹ 613 ₹ 473
Total Non Current Liabilities ₹ 752 ₹ 851 ₹ 859 ₹ 848
Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40 ₹ 75 ₹ 184 ₹ 166
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 33
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266 ₹ 3,375 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,128
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371 ₹ 205 ₹ 227 ₹ 261
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457 ₹ 765 ₹ 501 ₹ 531
Provisions ₹ 43 ₹ 60 ₹ 60 ₹ 160
Total Current Liabilities ₹ 4,177 ₹ 4,481 ₹ 4,409 ₹ 4,279
Total Equity And Liabilites ₹ 15,312 ₹ 17,397 ₹ 18,504 ₹ 19,674
check ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 15,376 ₹ 17,171 ₹ 19,102 ₹ 21,137 ₹ 23,158 ₹ 25,195
₹ 15,416 ₹ 17,210 ₹ 19,142 ₹ 21,177 ₹ 23,198 ₹ 25,235
₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 15,560 ₹ 17,354 ₹ 19,285 ₹ 21,321 ₹ 23,341 ₹ 25,379
₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032 ₹ 1,032
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Cash Flow Statement 2022 2023 2024 2025
Net Profit ₹ 3,884 ₹ 4,271 ₹ 4,690 ₹ 4,677
Add Depreciation ₹ 925 ₹ 1,003 ₹ 1,073 ₹ 1,138
Less Change in Net Working Capital ₹ 296 ₹ 634 ₹ 885 ₹ 220
Cash Flow from Operating Activities ₹ 4,513 ₹ 4,639 ₹ 4,878 ₹ 5,595
Changes to Equity ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Loans Raised ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Loans Repaid ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Finance Costs Paid ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
Dividend Paid ₹ 2,089.71 ₹ 2,339.24 ₹ 2,654.67 ₹ 2,656.51
Cash Flow from Financing Activities ₹ 2,089.71 ₹ 2,339.24 ₹ 2,654.67 ₹ 2,656.51
₹ 1,384
₹ 1,139
₹ (2,522)
₹ -
₹ -
₹ -
₹ -
₹ 2,752.18
₹ 2,752.18
₹ 936
₹ 2,486
₹ 3,422
INR Crore June 30,2018
FY 19
INCOME
Revenue from operations ₹ 8,913
Other income ₹ 117
Total Income ₹ 9,031
Expenses
Cost of material consumed ₹ 6,161
Purchase of stock in trade ₹ -
Change in inventories of finished goods traded goods and workin progress ₹ 45
Excise duty on sale of goods ₹ 0
Employee benefit expensess ₹ 424
Other expenses ₹ 880
Total Expenses ₹ 7,511
Earnings Before Interest Depreciation and Tax (EBITDA) ₹ 1,520
Finance Cost ₹ 8
Depreciation and amortisation expense ₹ 154
Earnings Before Associate's share of profit and Exceptional Items and Tax ₹ 1,358
Share of profit(loss) of associates ₹ 6
Gain in dilution of interest associate ₹ -
Exceptional Item(income/expense) ₹ -
profit before tax ₹ 1,363
Tax expense
Total tax expensess ₹ 438
Valuation Parameters
Valuation as on Specified Date 8/31/2021
Date of Year Ending 3/31/2022
Tax Rate (Effective Future Rate) 25.0%
WACC 12.5%
Terminal Growth Rate 6.2%
2031E 2032E
9.6 10.6
₹ 7,114 ₹ 7,612
₹ 2,299 ₹ 2,187
SENSTIVITY ANALYSIS
COST OF EQUITY
11% 12% 12.5% 13% 13.50%
3990 3365 3115 2908 2722
4143 3465 3197 2977 2781
4358 3604 3310 3071 2860
4578 3742 3422 3164 2937
4982 3987 3617 3324 3069
2032E
₹ 7,612
7.0%
Name CMP O/S shares (cr.) EPS Sales (cr.)
Eicher Motors ₹ 2,415 27 ₹ 41 ₹ 7,988
TVS Motor Co. ₹ 603 48 ₹ 13 ₹ 19,421
Bajaj Auto ₹ 3,849 29 ₹ 168 ₹ 27,741
Atul Auto ₹ 173 2 ₹ -1 ₹ 317
Scooters India ₹ 37 9 ₹ -2 ₹ 24
Min ₹ 37 ₹ 2 ₹ -2 ₹ 24
Max ₹ 3,849 ₹ 48 ₹ 168 ₹ 27,741
Average ₹ 1,415 ₹ 23 ₹ 44 ₹ 11,098
Median ₹ 603 ₹ 27 ₹ 13 ₹ 7,988
Hero Motocorp 20 ₹ 146 ₹ 30,959
Value Contribution
₹ 846
Value Contribution
₹ 1,007
Weights Value Contribution
50.0% ₹ 29,149
Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40 ₹ 75 ₹ 184 ₹ 166
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266 ₹ 3,375 ₹ 3,438 ₹ 3,128
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371 ₹ 205 ₹ 227 ₹ 261
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457 ₹ 765 ₹ 501 ₹ 531
Provisions ₹ 43 ₹ 60 ₹ 60 ₹ 160
Lease Liabilities ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 33
As days sales
Inventories 8 11 13 16
Trade Receivables 18 16 29 19
Loans 0 0 0 0
Other Financial Assets 2 6 7 5
Other Current Assets 5 2 3 4
Borrowings 0 1 2 2
Trade Payables 38 37 37 39
Other Financial Liabilities 4 2 2 3
Other Current Liabilities 5 8 5 7
Provisions 1 1 1 2
Lease Liabilities 0 0 0 0
Depreciation ₹ 846
Depreciation as a % of GLTA 6.2%
Total Capex
Maintenance Capex
Growth Capex
2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
12 13 14 14 13 13
21 21 23 21 21 21
0 0 0 0 0 0
5 6 5 5 5 5
3 3 3 3 3 3
1 2 2 2 2 2
38 38 38 38 38 38
3 3 3 3 3 3
6 7 6 7 7 7
1 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
Revenue ₹ 30,984
Revenue model
Dharuhera 2100000
Gurgaon 2100000
Haridwar 2700000
Neemrana 1100000
Halol 1200000
Chittoor 0
Columbia 80000
Bangladesh 0
total capacity 9280000
Industry Data
Domestic
2-wheelers 17589511
Exports
2-wheelers 2339273
Sales(units)
Domestic Sales 6,478,000
Exports 182,000
Total 6,660,000
Market Share
Domestic 36.8%
Exports 7.8%
Utilization 71.8%
Realization ₹ 46,523
Tax expense
Tax Rate 27.4%
Total tax expensess ₹ 1,339
Current Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 40
Trade Payables ₹ 3,266
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ 371
Other Current Liabilities ₹ 457
Provisions ₹ 43
Lease Liabilities ₹ -
As days sales
Inventories 8
Trade Receivables 18
Loans 0
Other Financial Assets 2
Other Current Assets 5
Investments 54
Borrowings 0
Trade Payables 38
Other Financial Liabilities 4
Other Current Liabilities 5
Provisions 1
Lease Liabilities 0
Loans ₹ 48
Other Finacial Assets ₹ -
Deffered Tax Assets
Income Tax Assets(Net) ₹ 333
Other Non Current Assets ₹ 658
Liability Assumption
Financial Liabilities
Borrowings ₹ 208
Lease Liabilities ₹ -
Other Financial Liabilities ₹ -
Provisions ₹ 76
Deffered Tax Liabilities (Net) ₹ 469
Non Controlling Interests ₹ 67
Equity Share Capital ₹ 40
Other Equity ₹ 10,276
Dividend ₹ 1,737
Payout ratio 49.0%
2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E
11 13 16 12 13 14
16 29 19 21 21 23
0 0 0 0 0 0
6 7 5 5 6 5
2 3 4 3 3 3
62 34 59 73 56 56
1 2 2 1 2 2
37 37 39 38 38 38
2 2 3 3 3 3
8 5 7 6 7 6
1 1 2 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0
₹ 46 ₹ 60 ₹ 68 ₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53
₹ - ₹ 34 ₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 150 ₹ 125 ₹ 44 ₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ - ₹ - ₹ 208 ₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ - ₹ - ₹ - ₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 119 ₹ 121 ₹ 124 ₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 582 ₹ 613 ₹ 473 ₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 93 ₹ 116 ₹ 141 ₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 11,932 ₹ 13,080 ₹ 14,366 ₹ 15,376 ₹ 17,171 ₹ 19,102
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
14 13 13
21 21 21
0 0 0
5 5 5
3 3 3
61 62 59
2 2 2
38 38 38
3 3 3
7 7 7
1 1 1
0 0 0
₹ 53 ₹ 53 ₹ 53
₹ - ₹ - ₹ -
₹ 45 ₹ 45 ₹ 45
₹ 212 ₹ 212 ₹ 212
₹ 146 ₹ 146 ₹ 146
₹ 176 ₹ 176 ₹ 176
₹ 453 ₹ 453 ₹ 453
₹ 143 ₹ 143 ₹ 143
₹ 40 ₹ 40 ₹ 40
₹ 21,137 ₹ 23,158 ₹ 25,195
No of share outstanding(crores) 20
FV of share 2
2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
=1-C18
=1-C19
=D19-C20
=D20-C21
=D21-C22
=D22-C23
=D23-C24
=D24-C25
27% 35%
26% 30%
25%
25%
20%
24%
15%
23%
10%
22% 5%
21% 0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 20
DOMESTIC SALES
9000000
8000000
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Values(units) growth
COGS
72%
70%
68%
66%
COGS
72%
70%
68%
66%
64%
62%
60%
58%
56%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
HMCL Industry
6%
4%
2%
0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
HMCL Industry
4%
2%
0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
HMCL Industry
PROFITABILITY RATIOS
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
10%
0%
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
Shareholding Pattern
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
20.00%
0.00%
Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 QFY21
Cost Behaviour
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2019 2020
Sales in 2020
7,000,000
6,220,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,078,136
1,869,220
2,000,000
1,000,000
180,000
0
Bajaj Hero
1,000,000
180,000
0
Bajaj Hero
Fall in 2W EV sales
154000
152000
150000
148000
146000
144000
142000
140000
138000
2020A 2021A
₹ 120.00
₹ 100.00
₹ 80.00
₹ 60.00
₹ 40.00
₹ 20.00
₹-
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
Amount(in crores)
10 0%
ROCE(PROJECTED)
45% 8 0%
40%
35%
71%
30% 6 0%
25%
100%
20%
15%
4 0%
10%
5%
2 0%
0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
0%
COGS
Revenue
EXPORTS
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
024E 2025E 2026E 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Values(units) growth
WORKING CAPITAL
7000
6000
5000
WORKING CAPITAL
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
024A 2025A 2026A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
EBIDTA MARGIN
25%
36% 21%
20% 20% 20%
20% 19%
18%
29% 16% 17% 16%
15%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2021A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
HMCL Industry
RETURN RATIOS
45.0%
10% 40.0%
9%
35.0%
30.0%
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
2021A
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 202
20.0%
15.0%
2021A
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A 2024A 202
Margin
Risk Factor
Dependence on monsoon
10
19 FY 20 FY 21
Adherence to regulatory norms
Increase in fuel prices Increase in raw material price
19 FY 20 FY 21
Adherence to regulatory norms
80
60
40
20
0
FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 F
-20
-40
Growth Trend
40
30
20
10
0
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17
30
20
10
0
FY 11 FY 12 FY 13 FY 14 FY 15 FY 16 FY 17
-10
-20
-30
2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E
Domestic Exports
penses Row 66
Sales of 2W EVs
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
Market Share
37.1%
35.7%
9.9%
7.2%
Motorcycles Scooters
2020A 2021A
7.2%
Motorcycles Scooters
2020A 2021A
Shareholding Pattern
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
60.00%
40.00%
1A
20.00%
0.00%
Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21
FY20
CONSOLIDATED COST BRIDGE
71%
0%
10%
6%
3%
2% 0%
9%
PAT
Other Ex...
COGS
Employee...
Deprecia...
Finance C...
Tax
Revenue
16000.00
14000.00
12000.00
10000.00
8000.00
6000.00
2000.00
0.00
6/1/2016 12/1/2016 6/1/2017 12/1/2017 6/1/2018 12/1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1
0.00
6/1/2016 12/1/2016 6/1/2017 12/1/2017 6/1/2018 12/1/2018 6/1/2019 12/1/2019 6/1
140%
120%
100%
80%
20% 20%
60%
6%
15% 40%
20%
0%
Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Oct-17 Feb-18 Jun-18 Oct-18 Feb-19 Jun-19 Oct-19
2020A 2021A
$250.00
$200.00
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00
$-
2014A 2019A 2020A
2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
$150.00
$100.00
$50.00
$-
2014A 2019A 2020A
2023A 2024A 2025A 2026A
ed Return on Equity
Covid 19 outbreak
FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
Growth Trend
FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
FY 15 FY 16 FY 17 FY 18 FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
Domestic Exports
Shareholding Pattern
NIFTY
ry/KwH
2020A
2020A
Domestic Market Share 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021A
36.8% 36.4% 35.9% 35.7% 37.1%
Ather Energy
Year 2020 January February March April May
Sales of Ather Energy 285 369 294 4 92
Total Sales 2803 2128 2627 68 343
% 10% 17% 11% 6% 27%
Source: Autocar Professional
Bajaj Hero
Domestic sales 2,078,136 6,220,000
Exports 1,869,220 180,000
business description
2021A
143837
-5.4%
37%
Year
No of units
2019
2020
2023E 2024E
₹ 39,786 ₹ 43,927
11% 10%
₹ 6,744 ₹ 7,373
17% 17%
₹ 4,271 ₹ 4,690
10% 10%
₹ 214 ₹ 235
22% 22%
28% 28%
2023E 2024E
17.4% 17.2%
14.8% 14.7%
11.0% 10.9%
16.6% 16.6%
28.2% 28.0%
28.3% 28.2%
23.9% 23.8%
22.1% 22.0%
QFY21
34.76%
37.19%
18.68%
9.37%
2019 Y-O-Y Growth
2290 30%
2019 2020
2972 2290
No of units
2290
2972
Growth trend Domestic Exports
FY 11 25.6 34.3
FY 12 13.9 29
FY 13 2.9 -0.9
FY 14 6.5 7.3
FY 15 7.9 17.9
FY 16 1 3
FY 17 6.9 -5.9
FY 18 14.8 20.3
FY 19 4.9 16.5
FY 20 -17.8 7.3
FY 21 -13.2 -6.9
Source : Crisil
P/E CMP / BV CMP / SaleCMP / FCF EV / EBITD EV / EBIT ROA 12M %ROE % ROIC %
52.85 6.22 8.16 69.21 28.94 36.13 12.09 12.58 15.34
20.48 3.88 1.93 22.92 13 15.39 18.51 19.57 25.83
51.44 8.07 1.59 -38.12 17.05 22.68 4.66 16.9 31.53
Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
28.6 29.3 27.4
47.8 48.6 51.9
23.6 22.1 20.7
NIFTY50 HMCL
Date Adj Close Return Date Adj Close Return
6/1/2016 8287.75 6/1/2016 2724.62
7/1/2016 8638.50 4.23% 7/1/2016 2745.97 0.78%
8/1/2016 8786.20 1.71% 8/1/2016 3035.90 10.56%
9/1/2016 8611.15 -1.99% 9/1/2016 2926.47 -3.60%
10/1/2016 8638.00 0.31% 10/1/2016 2899.29 -0.93%
11/1/2016 8224.50 -4.79% 11/1/2016 2738.57 -5.54%
12/1/2016 8185.80 -0.47% 12/1/2016 2632.70 -3.87%
1/1/2017 8561.30 4.59% 1/1/2017 2744.02 4.23%
2/1/2017 8879.60 3.72% 2/1/2017 2714.40 -1.08%
3/1/2017 9173.75 3.31% 3/1/2017 2786.92 2.67%
4/1/2017 9304.05 1.42% 4/1/2017 2917.71 4.69%
5/1/2017 9621.25 3.41% 5/1/2017 3292.99 12.86%
6/1/2017 9520.90 -1.04% 6/1/2017 3254.22 -1.18%
7/1/2017 10077.10 5.84% 7/1/2017 3240.29 -0.43%
8/1/2017 9917.90 -1.58% 8/1/2017 3541.07 9.28%
9/1/2017 9788.60 -1.30% 9/1/2017 3345.59 -5.52%
10/1/2017 10335.30 5.59% 10/1/2017 3412.37 2.00%
11/1/2017 10226.55 -1.05% 11/1/2017 3220.70 -5.62%
12/1/2017 10530.70 2.97% 12/1/2017 3354.98 4.17%
1/1/2018 11027.70 4.72% 1/1/2018 3271.93 -2.48%
2/1/2018 10492.85 -4.85% 2/1/2018 3187.95 -2.57%
3/1/2018 10113.70 -3.61% 3/1/2018 3188.95 0.03%
4/1/2018 10739.35 6.19% 4/1/2018 3359.47 5.35%
5/1/2018 10736.15 -0.03% 5/1/2018 3190.84 -5.02%
6/1/2018 10714.30 -0.20% 6/1/2018 3126.57 -2.01%
7/1/2018 11356.50 5.99% 7/1/2018 2965.40 -5.15%
8/1/2018 11680.50 2.85% 8/1/2018 2995.76 1.02%
9/1/2018 10930.45 -6.42% 9/1/2018 2700.63 -9.85%
10/1/2018 10386.60 -4.98% 10/1/2018 2543.28 -5.83%
11/1/2018 10876.75 4.72% 11/1/2018 2812.91 10.60%
12/1/2018 10862.55 -0.13% 12/1/2018 2858.07 1.61%
1/1/2019 10830.95 -0.29% 1/1/2019 2406.65 -15.79%
2/1/2019 10792.50 -0.36% 2/1/2019 2419.68 0.54%
3/1/2019 11623.90 7.70% 3/1/2019 2395.50 -1.00%
4/1/2019 11748.15 1.07% 4/1/2019 2356.75 -1.62%
5/1/2019 11922.80 1.49% 5/1/2019 2514.75 6.70%
6/1/2019 11788.85 -1.12% 6/1/2019 2422.10 -3.68%
7/1/2019 11118.00 -5.69% 7/1/2019 2210.62 -8.73%
8/1/2019 11023.25 -0.85% 8/1/2019 2475.09 11.96%
9/1/2019 11474.45 4.09% 9/1/2019 2602.78 5.16%
10/1/2019 11877.45 3.51% 10/1/2019 2602.26 -0.02%
11/1/2019 12056.05 1.50% 11/1/2019 2341.81 -10.01%
12/1/2019 12168.45 0.93% 12/1/2019 2350.95 0.39%
1/1/2020 11962.10 -1.70% 1/1/2020 2407.53 2.41%
2/1/2020 11201.75 -6.36% 2/1/2020 1974.40 -17.99%
3/1/2020 8597.75 -23.25% 3/1/2020 1579.84 -19.98%
4/1/2020 9859.90 14.68% 4/1/2020 2144.16 35.72%
5/1/2020 9580.30 -2.84% 5/1/2020 2336.29 8.96%
6/1/2020 10302.10 7.53% 6/1/2020 2520.46 7.88%
7/1/2020 11073.45 7.49% 7/1/2020 2648.66 5.09%
8/1/2020 11387.50 2.84% 8/1/2020 3001.77 13.33%
9/1/2020 11247.55 -1.23% 9/1/2020 3142.82 4.70%
10/1/2020 11642.40 3.51% 10/1/2020 2795.82 -11.04%
11/1/2020 12968.95 11.39% 11/1/2020 3104.43 11.04%
12/1/2020 13981.75 7.81% 12/1/2020 3105.58 0.04%
1/1/2021 13634.60 -2.48% 1/1/2021 3251.42 4.70%
2/1/2021 14529.15 6.56% 2/1/2021 3219.42 -0.98%
3/1/2021 14690.70 1.11% 3/1/2021 2913.60 -9.50%
4/1/2021 14631.10 -0.41% 4/1/2021 2819.15 -3.24%
5/1/2021 15108.10 3.26% 5/1/2021 2906.95 3.11%
NIFTY HMCL
6/1/2016
7/1/2016 4.23% 0.78%
8/1/2016 1.71% 10.56%
9/1/2016 -1.99% -3.60% beta 0.96
10/1/2016 0.31% -0.93% Risk free rate 6.26% 10year bond
11/1/2016 -4.79% -5.54% ERP 6.50%
12/1/2016 -0.47% -3.87% Expected rate 12.5%
1/1/2017 4.59% 4.23% Mkt ret 12.76% =RRI(COUNTA(A3:A62)/12,B3,B62)
2/1/2017 3.72% -1.08% 6.50%
3/1/2017 3.31% 2.67% 0.1276
4/1/2017 1.42% 4.69%
5/1/2017 3.41% 12.86% Terminal Growth Rate Weights
6/1/2017 -1.04% -1.18% Hero Motocorp 8.0% 32.5%
7/1/2017 5.84% -0.43% 2W Industry 7.0% 27.5%
8/1/2017 -1.58% 9.28% Economy 6.5% 22.5%
9/1/2017 -1.30% -5.52% Population 1.0% 17.5%
10/1/2017 5.59% 2.00% Sum of Weights 100.0%
11/1/2017 -1.05% -5.62% Terminal Growth Rate 6.17%
12/1/2017 2.97% 4.17% g = (1 - payout rate)*ROE
1/1/2018 4.72% -2.48%
2/1/2018 -4.85% -2.57%
3/1/2018 -3.61% 0.03%
4/1/2018 6.19% 5.35%
5/1/2018 -0.03% -5.02%
6/1/2018 -0.20% -2.01%
7/1/2018 5.99% -5.15%
8/1/2018 2.85% 1.02%
9/1/2018 -6.42% -9.85%
10/1/2018 -4.98% -5.83%
11/1/2018 4.72% 10.60%
12/1/2018 -0.13% 1.61%
1/1/2019 -0.29% -15.79%
2/1/2019 -0.36% 0.54%
3/1/2019 7.70% -1.00%
4/1/2019 1.07% -1.62%
5/1/2019 1.49% 6.70%
6/1/2019 -1.12% -3.68%
7/1/2019 -5.69% -8.73%
8/1/2019 -0.85% 11.96%
9/1/2019 4.09% 5.16%
10/1/2019 3.51% -0.02%
11/1/2019 1.50% -10.01%
12/1/2019 0.93% 0.39%
1/1/2020 -1.70% 2.41%
2/1/2020 -6.36% -17.99%
3/1/2020 -23.25% -19.98%
4/1/2020 14.68% 35.72%
5/1/2020 -2.84% 8.96%
6/1/2020 7.53% 7.88%
7/1/2020 7.49% 5.09%
8/1/2020 2.84% 13.33%
9/1/2020 -1.23% 4.70%
10/1/2020 3.51% -11.04%
11/1/2020 11.39% 11.04%
12/1/2020 7.81% 0.04%
1/1/2021 -2.48% 4.70%
2/1/2021 6.56% -0.98%
3/1/2021 1.11% -9.50%
4/1/2021 -0.41% -3.24%
5/1/2021 3.26% 3.11%
date HMCL NIFTY date Hero Motocor
6/1/2016 2724.62 8287.75 Jun-16 100%
7/1/2016 2745.97 8638.50 Jul-16 101%
8/1/2016 3035.90 8786.20 Aug-16 111%
9/1/2016 2926.47 8611.15 Sep-16 107%
10/1/2016 2899.29 8638.00 Oct-16 106%
11/1/2016 2738.57 8224.50 Nov-16 101%
12/1/2016 2632.70 8185.80 Dec-16 97%
1/1/2017 2744.02 8561.30 Jan-17 101%
3:A62)/12,B3,B62) 2/1/2017 2714.40 8879.60 Feb-17 100%
3/1/2017 2786.92 9173.75 Mar-17 102%
4/1/2017 2917.71 9304.05 Apr-17 107%
5/1/2017 3292.99 9621.25 May-17 121%
6/1/2017 3254.22 9520.90 Jun-17 119%
7/1/2017 3240.29 10077.10 Jul-17 119%
8/1/2017 3541.07 9917.90 Aug-17 130%
9/1/2017 3345.59 9788.60 Sep-17 123%
10/1/2017 3412.37 10335.30 Oct-17 125%
11/1/2017 3220.70 10226.55 Nov-17 118%
12/1/2017 3354.98 10530.70 Dec-17 123%
1/1/2018 3271.93 11027.70 Jan-18 120%
2/1/2018 3187.95 10492.85 Feb-18 117%
3/1/2018 3188.95 10113.70 Mar-18 117%
4/1/2018 3359.47 10739.35 Apr-18 123%
5/1/2018 3190.84 10736.15 May-18 117%
6/1/2018 3126.57 10714.30 Jun-18 115%
7/1/2018 2965.40 11356.50 Jul-18 109%
8/1/2018 2995.76 11680.50 Aug-18 110%
9/1/2018 2700.63 10930.45 Sep-18 99%
10/1/2018 2543.28 10386.60 Oct-18 93%
11/1/2018 2812.91 10876.75 Nov-18 103%
12/1/2018 2858.07 10862.55 Dec-18 105%
1/1/2019 2406.65 10830.95 Jan-19 88%
2/1/2019 2419.68 10792.50 Feb-19 89%
3/1/2019 2395.50 11623.90 Mar-19 88%
4/1/2019 2356.75 11748.15 Apr-19 86%
5/1/2019 2514.75 11922.80 May-19 92%
6/1/2019 2422.10 11788.85 Jun-19 89%
7/1/2019 2210.62 11118.00 Jul-19 81%
8/1/2019 2475.09 11023.25 Aug-19 91%
9/1/2019 2602.78 11474.45 Sep-19 96%
10/1/2019 2602.26 11877.45 Oct-19 96%
11/1/2019 2341.81 12056.05 Nov-19 86%
12/1/2019 2350.95 12168.45 Dec-19 86%
1/1/2020 2407.53 11962.10 Jan-20 88%
2/1/2020 1974.40 11201.75 Feb-20 72%
3/1/2020 1579.84 8597.75 Mar-20 58%
4/1/2020 2144.16 9859.90 Apr-20 79%
5/1/2020 2336.29 9580.30 May-20 86%
6/1/2020 2520.46 10302.10 Jun-20 93%
7/1/2020 2648.66 11073.45 Jul-20 97%
8/1/2020 3001.77 11387.50 Aug-20 110%
9/1/2020 3142.82 11247.55 Sep-20 115%
10/1/2020 2795.82 11642.40 Oct-20 103%
11/1/2020 3104.43 12968.95 Nov-20 114%
12/1/2020 3105.58 13981.75 Dec-20 114%
1/1/2021 3251.42 13634.60 Jan-21 119%
2/1/2021 3219.42 14529.15 Feb-21 118%
3/1/2021 2913.60 14690.70 Mar-21 107%
4/1/2021 2819.15 14631.10 Apr-21 103%
5/1/2021 2906.95 15108.10 May-21 107%
NIFTY
100%
104%
106%
104%
104%
99%
99%
103%
107%
111%
112%
116%
115%
122%
120%
118%
125%
123%
127%
133%
127%
122%
130%
130%
129%
137%
141%
132%
125%
131%
131%
131%
130%
140%
142%
144%
142%
134%
133%
138%
143%
145%
147%
144%
135%
104%
119%
116%
124%
134%
137%
136%
140%
156%
169%
165%
175%
177%
177%
182%
Date NIFTY Adj CHMCL Adj Close
6/1/2016 8287.75 2724.62
7/1/2016 8638.50 2745.97
8/1/2016 8786.20 3035.90
9/1/2016 8611.15 2926.47
10/1/2016 8638.00 2899.29
11/1/2016 8224.50 2738.57
12/1/2016 8185.80 2632.70
1/1/2017 8561.30 2744.02
2/1/2017 8879.60 2714.40
3/1/2017 9173.75 2786.92
4/1/2017 9304.05 2917.71
5/1/2017 9621.25 3292.99
6/1/2017 9520.90 3254.22
7/1/2017 10077.10 3240.29
8/1/2017 9917.90 3541.07
9/1/2017 9788.60 3345.59
10/1/2017 10335.30 3412.37
11/1/2017 10226.55 3220.70
12/1/2017 10530.70 3354.98
1/1/2018 11027.70 3271.93
2/1/2018 10492.85 3187.95
3/1/2018 10113.70 3188.95
4/1/2018 10739.35 3359.47
5/1/2018 10736.15 3190.84
6/1/2018 10714.30 3126.57
7/1/2018 11356.50 2965.40
8/1/2018 11680.50 2995.76
9/1/2018 10930.45 2700.63
10/1/2018 10386.60 2543.28
11/1/2018 10876.75 2812.91
12/1/2018 10862.55 2858.07
1/1/2019 10830.95 2406.65
2/1/2019 10792.50 2419.68
3/1/2019 11623.90 2395.50
4/1/2019 11748.15 2356.75
5/1/2019 11922.80 2514.75
6/1/2019 11788.85 2422.10
7/1/2019 11118.00 2210.62
8/1/2019 11023.25 2475.09
9/1/2019 11474.45 2602.78
10/1/2019 11877.45 2602.26
11/1/2019 12056.05 2341.81
12/1/2019 12168.45 2350.95
1/1/2020 11962.10 2407.53
2/1/2020 11201.75 1974.40
3/1/2020 8597.75 1579.84
4/1/2020 9859.90 2144.16
5/1/2020 9580.30 2336.29
6/1/2020 10302.10 2520.46
7/1/2020 11073.45 2648.66
8/1/2020 11387.50 3001.77
9/1/2020 11247.55 3142.82
10/1/2020 11642.40 2795.82
11/1/2020 12968.95 3104.43
12/1/2020 13981.75 3105.58
1/1/2021 13634.60 3251.42
2/1/2021 14529.15 3219.42
3/1/2021 14690.70 2913.60
4/1/2021 14631.10 2819.15
5/1/2021 15108.10 2906.95
Growth trend Domestic Exports
FY 11 25.6 34.3
FY 12 13.9 29
FY 13 2.9 -0.9
FY 14 6.5 7.3
FY 15 7.9 17.9
FY 16 1 3
FY 17 6.9 -5.9
FY 18 14.8 20.3
FY 19 4.9 16.5
FY 20 -17.8 7.3
FY 21 -13.2 -6.9
Source : Crisil
Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
Economy/Ent
Chart Title ry
Executive
Premium
Scooters
FY 19 FY 20 FY 21
28.6 29.3 27.4
47.8 48.6 51.9
23.6 22.1 20.7