INTERPOLATION / ND

EXTRAPOLATION F
1800 1 | 649
Y 180. Ans.
Hence sales for 1960 and 1970
are Rs. 180 Lakhs and
Rs. 250 Lakhs
respectively. Ans.
THREE MISSING VALUES|
ExampTterpolate the missing values
82 83 84
Y 110 85 86 87
150 88
200 210 225 260
Solution. Given (GND.U. B. Com. I 1999)
X
Y
1980
81 110Yo
82 150Y
83
84 200Y3
85 210Y
225 Ys
86
87 Y6
88
260 Y
Three values are
missing. We require three equations. Y3
will be obtained Six values of Y are
as follows. Put in given. The three cquations
A0, A =0, A2 =0
Ist equation
A Y6 -6Ys + 15Y4-20Y3 +1SY2
lind
6Y1 +Yo =0
equation A =0 wiil be obtained by raising all the
subscripts of Yin a) by one.
IA =
Y, -6Y6 +
15Y3 20Y4+15Y, -6Y +
Y =0
Similarly, Illrd equation A2 wi! be obtained by raising all the
Substituting the various values of Y subscripts of Yin ady one

(1) Y-6 (225) + 15

(210) 20 (200) +
15Y2 -6Y,+ Y2 -0
Y- 1350 + 3150 4000+15Y, -900 + 110 0
Y+ 15Y2 2990
(2) 260-6Y6 +15 (225) -20 ...(1)
260
(210)+ 15 (200) 6Y+ 150 =
00
t3375-
6Y, + 4200 3000 -6Y,+ 150 0
-6Y6-6Y, =

- 2585 (2)
(3) Yg 6 (260) +
15Y, 20 (225) +
(210)- 6 (200)+Y 15
-

=0
Yg 1560+
15Y-4500+3150-1200+Y2 =0
Yg+ 15Y+ Y2 = 4110
Solving equations 1, 2 and 3 by Cramer's rule .(3)
15Y2 + Ys t 0Yg =2990o

-6Y2 -6Y2 +0Yg =-2585

Y2 15Y6 + Yg 4110
650 MODERN QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS (B.cOM. D
151 o||Y 29901
-6-6 0j|Y 2585
15 4110
2990
2585 - 6 0

4110 15
- 15355 =

182 79 Ans.
15 i0 84
-6 -6 0

15 1
15 2990 0
6 - 2585 00

1 4110 1-20835-248-04
Y
D 15 1 0 84
- 6-6 0

115 1
15 2990
-6 -6 2585|
15 4!
Yg-
D 15 1 0
i0-756 _205-67 - 84
6 -6 C
15 1

SUMMARY|
Interpolation is a tecinique of est1mating the most likely value of Y given the value of X under
specific assumptions. It is very useful to fill the gaps in data, in the case of destroyed data, for calculating
median and mode and forecasting. This techn:que is based upon the assumption that there are no sudden
jumps in the data. Different methods ofinterpolation are as follows
Newton's Method: Equai class interval condition
Y = Ya + x A' + ) a =D - 2 ) + 9 a - ) -2)(t-3)
2
Lagrange's Method: It may be applied to unequál class intervals
YY XX-X,|iX - X,{X- X3]..X- X,]
Y2 Yo
X- X,|{X X21X X3)...|.Xo - X,]
- -

IX XlIX-X2i{X-X3.X-X,
Ix XulX -X2||X,- Xg]..X -X,l
Y Xy][X-X1l[X-X3]... X-X,)
X2 Xgl1X2 - X,}IX2 - Xg]...X2 X,

**.
 INTERPOiATION AND EXTRAPOLATION
I551
X- Xo1IX-X,][X -X,).X-X,-
[X, - Xol1X, - X,][X, -X3]..X, - Xn -1)

Binomial Method: Ifn values are given, put nth leading difference equal to ero.
Mathematically, Ag = 0.

9UESTIONS
1. What is by interpolation ? What ere its assumptions ?
Q. mean
Hint Give meaning and assumptions.
Q. 2. (a) What is interpolatien sndextrapolation ? Explain its assumptions and importsnce.
(Pb. Uni., April 1998)(GN.D. U. B.Com. I April, 2005)
(GNDU. B. Com. I, April 2012
Regular) (GN.D.U. B. Com. 1, Professional, April 2012)
Hint. Meaning, Examples, Assumptions, Uses.
varicus meihods which
(b) Distinguish between Interpolation and extrapolation. Explain the Unit. B.Com. i, April 2003)
can be used for locating a missing value. (Pb.
SOME PRACTICAL gUESTIONS
1. NEWTON'S METHOD
Q. 3. (a) Find out demand for 1980. Given
Year 1975 78 81 84 87
Demand (kW) 100 150 190 260 300
Hint. Apply Newton's Methed
1980 19755
X
3 3 4 S0, A-10, 4= 40
A -100
Y1980 i73-26 kW Ans.
(b) From the fo!lowing estimate the no. of persons earning wages between Rs. 60 and
Rs. 70.
Wages (in Rs.) No. of Persons (in' 000)
below 40 250
40-60 120
60 80 100
80-100 70
100-120 50 (G.N.D.U. B Com. I (P) April 2001)
Hint: X70 70-40=1:5
60 40

Y70YotXa + (X-1)+
12
XX-)%-2) X(X-)X-2)0X -3)
X70424
or No. of persons below 70 = 424

and No. of persons below 60 =370

No. of persons between 60 and 70-424 370 64 Thou_and Ans.
Q. 4. From the following data find out Y when x = 9. Given
X 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Y 2 7 10 22 15
Hint. Apply Newton's Method

9=15 2
a =1,4 =1
A - , A0 =+2
 MODERN QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESs (B.COM. D
652
X-9 4-0188 Ans.
Q. 5. From the following data find the most likely estimate of production for 1990. Use
Netwon's method.
Year 1975 978 1981 1984 1987
ction 4.2
Production 5:3 6:9 7:8 8.5
Hint. Extrapolation, Newton's method to be used. Same method
1990-1975
= 5

A 11, A2 =0:5, A =-12, A = l17

Y1990 11-2Ans.
Q. 6. Following distribution is given regarding monthly income
Monthly Income (Rs.) 0-500 500-1000
of households
1000-1500 1500-2000 2000-2500 2500-3000
No. of Hcusehclds 4 6 10 6 3 2
(a) How many households have income less than Rs. 80C per month ?
(b How many households have income less than Rs. 2200 per month ?
(c) How many households have income in between Rs. 800 and Rs.
Hint. Apply Newton's Method. 2,200 per morth ?
(a) 6 Ans. (6) 27 Ans. (c) 27
Firstiy make frequencies cumulative by less than method.
6 = 2i Ans.
II. BINOMIAL EXPANSION METHOD
Q.7. From the following data find the value
4 8 12
of Y when X =
16
20 30 40 70
Hint. Use Binomial Method
X 4 6 8 10 12
Xo X X2
Y 20 30 70

Put A4
Yo
0, Y
Y
52-5 Ans.
Y2 Y3 Ya
Q. 8. Find out missing value.
Year 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988
Index 100 107
? I57 212
Hint. Put A = a. Use Binomial Method.
Y, = 124 Ans.

Q.9. Extrapoiate the value of Y for 1992.

Year 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
Cost of Living Index (Y) 328 378 471 478 434 451
Hints. Given (X) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992
(Y) 328 378 471 478 434 451
Yo Y2 Ys Y4 6
Same Formula, Put A = 0
Y631 Ans.
Q. 10. Find out missing values.
Year 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Sale (Rs. Lakh) 766 787 ? 77-6 787 80-6 77:6 787
Hints. Use Binomial Method
A Y-7Ys+ 21Y5 - 35Y, + 35Y-21Y +7Y - Yo = 0
Ai =Yg- 7Y, +21Y6-35Y, +
35Y4 - 21Y, 7Y2 -Y =0
+

Sale in 1981 =
Rs. 78 25 lakh.
Sale in 1984 Rs. 80-6 lakh Ans.
 INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION
Q. 11. Explain Binomial formula for
interpolation.
353
following: ind out the missing values in tic
X 25 35 45 55
7 ? 65
12 15 24 (GN.D.U B.Com 1, 1997)
Hint. Use Binomial Meihod CN.D.U. B.Com. I,
Q. 12. From the foliowing Y,
9:47 and Y
18
=
Professional, April, 2012)
daia, interpclate the 87
=
Ans.
Year 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 missing values
Value 74 78 1985 1986 1987
? 84 87 ?
Hint. Use Binomial method 94 99
Y2 Y 90-22 Ans.81-09, GNDU. B3A. I1, 1999)
Q. 13. Find out the
missing values by suitablc method of
Year
1980 81 82 83 84
interpolation.
Exports (Rs. Cr.) 15 85 86
20 87 88
Hints. Six values are 33 40 62
Hence we will
given. Three values are missing. We will 90
obtain three
equations. put A8 =
0, A^ = 0 and
a2= 0.
15Y2-6Ys = 103
- 6Y+1SY, +Y7 657
Y2-20 Ys -6Y7 =- 1422
Solving by Cramer's rule,
22330
Y2 2658 Ans.
840
- 41405

Ys D2 = 49.29 Ans.
D - 840

Y7 D3 -64785=
77:13 Ans.
Q. 14. By suitable method find 840
D

X value of Yand X 50
20 from the =

30 40 60 70 following data
5 i5 60
Hint. Use i20
Binomial (GN.D.U. B.Com. , April,
Q. 15. (a) Find outMethod,
the
Y 30:6. 2003)
X missing
25
values in the
fc!!owing by binomial expansien
Y 35 45 55 method
7 ? 65
12 15 24
Hint
A 12 15
(GN.D.U. B.Com , April 2005)
B 24
Y
Puiting A and Aaj =0 Y2 Y3 Y
Ys
a Y4-4Y,+ 6Y2 - 4Y, Yo =0

Y-4Y Y-4Y4+
9
6Yg 4Y +Y, 0 ...(i)
4Y4 Y 66
)
Multiplying (i) by 4 and then
subtracting from
4Y4-16Y 76 (i) ...(i')
4Y4-Y 66
...(iii)
4Y4-16Y 76
5Y 142
9 Approx.
and
A 17 Ans.
654 MODERN QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS (B.COM.
Q. 15. (b) Interpolate the missing Vialues for the following data
Year 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Value 40 49 52 62 (GN.D.U. B.Com. 1 April 20i2)
Hint Given X 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Y 40 49 $2 62
Yo Ys
=0
-43+6 4 o=0
V t 6 = 364

0
's-4y + 6'3 -42 +
=

y1
4v-4y2 423
By solving simultaneously y,51.65 & y = =

54.
Q. 15. (c) Determine the missing values
X: li 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Y: 5 ? 13 20 35 40 (Y 10, 25 30)
III. LAGRANGE'S METHOD
Q. 16. The following information is available regarding the number of visitors. Use
Lagrange's method to interpulate the number of visitors in 1980.
Yeai 1978 1979 1981 1982
Visi.ors (Milions) 5112
5112 1
6514 9069 9685
Hints. Y1980 - 8524342 7 6946 16!4-16
7922-51 millions Ans.
Q. 17. The odserved values of a function are respectively 168, 120, 72 and 63 at four
positions 3, 7, 9 and 10 of the independent variable. What is the estimate you can give for the
value of the function at the position of the independent variable ?
Hints. Given unequal intervals
Independent variable X 3 10
Velue of the function Y 168 120 72 63
Using Lagrange's Method
12 i80 72 +27
147 Ans.
Q. 18. Estimate the number of workers geting below Rs. 40. Given
Wag es (Rs.) 15-20 20-30 3045 45-55 55-70
No. of Workers 73 97 110 80 140
Hin s. Wages (Below Rs.) 20 30 45 55 70
No. of Workers 73 170 280 460 600
Using Lagrange's Method

Yx 40 - 3.75+ 5! + 268 8 i05:14 12 =

223 Ans.
Q. 19. Find out Y when X = 17.
X 5 10 20 30
Y 25 50 100 120
Hin s. Unequal intervals
86-52 Ans.
x = 17 price is Rs. 13. Given:
Q..0. Find out the most likely estimate of supply when

Pric: (Rs.) 3 8 15 20 26
120 I50 185 230 300
Suply (kgs.)Unequal intervals
Hin S.
Yx 13 17248 kgs. Ans.
2044
P)+Pu) = 8103 Ans.
 Chapter 15 Probahility Theory
Probability nieasures provide the decision makers in business and in guvt. with the
means of quantitying uncertainties." Morris Hamburg

THOERY OF PROBABILITY- AN INTRODUCTION|

Sometimes we face such type of events in which results cannot be predicted. For example:
(A) When we toss a coin, it can not be predicted whether there will be head or tail.
2530 (B) When we draw a card from a well mixed pack of cards, it can not be predicted that whether it
will be a red card or a black card
(C) When we throw a six face die, it car not be predicted that whether there will number 1, 2, 3,
rs. Uses
4,5 or 6.
D When we draw a ball from a box containing some well mixed red and wtite ba!ls, it can not be
predicted that whether drawn ball will be red or white.
All such events in which result of the event cannot be predicted are called as unpredictable or
uncertain or non-deterministic or proba-bilistic events. Theory of probability is a statistical technique
at four dealing with this type of events. Over centuries it has been developed by experts like Galileo, Bernoulli.
for the Pascal, Leplace, De-Moivit, Baye, Fisher, Chebichev and Kolmogrov.
PROBABILITY- BASIOC TERMS
For understanding the definition of probability, we will have to undestand the meaning of diferent
terms used in theory of probability.
Trial and Event. In theory of probebiity, by trial we mean experiment and by event we mean
he result of the experiment. For example
(a) If we toss a coin, tossing of coin will be called as trial and coming ofhead or tail will be called
as events.
(b) If we draw a card from a pack of cards, drawing will be called as experiment and the card
being a red card or black card wili be called as events.
c) f we throw a six face die, throwing will be called as a trial and coming of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6 will
be called events
(2) Exhaustive Events: Al the possible outcomes of any trial taken togethe1 are called as exhaustive
events. Number of exhaustive events is called as exhaustive number or number of total possible cases.
For example:
(a) If we toss a coin, two cases are possible: head or tail. Head and tail taken together will be called
as exhaustive events. In this case exhaustive number is two. .'
(6) If we drawa card out of a pack of cards, 52 possibilities are' there. These 52 possibilities taken
together will be called as exhaustive events. Exhaustive number in this case will be equal to 52.
(c) If we throw a six face die, there may be number 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. These six events taken
together will be called as exhaustive events. Exhaustive number in this case will be six.
(3) Mutually Exclusive Events: Events are said to be mutually exclusive, ifthey can not occur
sinultaneously. For example: 655
 QUANTTTATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR
BUSINESS (B.COM. N
MODERN therefore
tail. Head and tail are
556 coin, cither tiere
will be head or there will be a
uni
a i we toss a
matuallyxclusive.
card, either it will be a red card or black card. Red card and
draw a
(b) If from a pack of cards we

exclusive. OCC
mutually 6. These six
black card arc, thereore, 3 4 5 or
will be number I or 2 or or or

throw a six face dic, cither there

(c) If we
exclusive.
numbers or events
are mutually if under the given circumstarnces
Events. Events are said to be equally likely,
(4) Equally Likely For example:
>vent to other event. are, therefore
we can hot prefer one head to tail or tail to head. Both
unbiased coin, we cannot prefer
(a) If we toss an

equally likely pack of cards, we can not prefer

one card to the other
to th
card out of a well mixed
(6) If we draw a
are cqually likely.
cards. All the 52 carcs or events number to the other numbers. Ail
throw unbiased six face die, we can not prefer any
(c)Ifwe an

the six numbers are equally !ikely. result in occurrence of an event

are those cases which
(5) Favourable cases. Favourable cases
under questicn. For exampie:
If we toss a coin and we are to find the probability ofgetting
head, favourabie case to this event
(a) event will occur and if tail comes
event wili not occur.
is head, unfavourable case is tail. If head comes, a king, fou
are to find the probability of getting
(6) If we draw a card from a pack ofcards and we of heart
cases are favourable. These cases are king of Spade (Hukam), king of Club (Chirhiaj. king
-

(Pan) and king of diamond (ate). autho

even number, three cases
()If we throw a six face die and we are to find the probability of getting
wi!l be favourable to this event. These cases will be 2, 4 and 6.
PROBABILITY MEANING
S
favourable to the
If out of 'n' exhaustive, mutuliy exclusive and equally likely cases. 'm' are
N
occurrence of event E, then the probability that event E will occur is equal to

PIE]=
Number of favourable cases E
P[E]= (a
Number of total possible case
Probability of occurrence of event E, that is, P[E] is also called as probabity of success. It is also (c
denoted by the symbol p'. (e)
If out of n total possible or exhaustive cases, m are favourable to the occurrence of event E, it g)
means n-m cases are unfavourable to the occurrence ofevent E. Theiefore probability that event E wil
Soi
not occur is equal to (a)
n-m
PE)= Nui
n
Number of unfavourable cases
P[E) Number of total possible cases
(b)
Probability of nc n-occurrence of event E, that is P[E] is also called as probability of failure. It is Nun
also denoted by the s mbol q'. Therefore
n- m

m (c)T
m n
Num
9 1

1-p
7tp=1. ( T
COM D PROBAPILITY THEORY
657
erefore Thus we find that the total of the
probabiliiy of success and probability of failure is always equal to
unity
ard an Probability
of any event will be maximum possible if all the possible cases are favourable to the
occurtence of event
hese six In this case m will be
equal to n.
stances p=" = =
1.(Since m =n).
n

erefore, In other words maximum

possible value ofp is one.

ne othe Probability of occerrence of any event will be minimum

o the occurrence of event E. In this possible if none of the cases is favourable
case m will be equal to zero.
ers. Al m
p= .(Since m=0).
n event In other wvords mininum possibie value ofp is zero.
Thus we find that
is evert
t occu 9sps1.
g, fou Similarly
f heart 0Sqs1.
This concept of
probability is called as classical concept because it has been
authors. Since it is based upon
e cases given by classical
simp!e mathematical logic, it is also called as mathematical
SOME PRACTICAL EXAMPLES concept.
Example 1. án urèiased coin is tossed. What is the
to the Solution. Total possible cases n 2 probability tha: there will be head ?
(head and tail). =

Number of favourable cases m =

1(head)
PIE) ; n
Ans.
Example 2. From a
pack of cards, a card is drawn. Find out the
(a) Red card prchubility that it is a
b) Spade card
is also (c) King card () Red king card
(e) Black ace card King or queen card
nt E, (g) Not queen card (h) Queen of club card.
E wi Solution:
(a) Total possible cases n = 52
Number of favourable cases m =26
all 52 cards are possible]
There are 26 red cards]
PIEJ- Ans.
re. It s
(b)Total possible cases n 52
Number of favourable all 52 cards are
possible]
cases m =13 : There are 13 spade cards]
PIEJ-" 3 Ans.
52 4
(c) Total possible cases n = 52
Number of favourable 4
: All 52 cards
possible]
are
cases m =

There are 4 king cards]

4
PLE= Ans.
n 52 13
(d) Total possible cases n 52
Ail 52 cards are possiblej
658 MODERN QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES FO 3USINESS (B.cOM.
Number of favorable cases m =2 1 PR
Th re are 2 red king cards|
2
PE Ans. Isth

() Total possible cases n = 52

Number of favourable cases m = 2 All 52 cards
afe possible]
I: There are two black ace cards

PE)- As.
) Total possible cases n = 52
Number of favourable cases m All 52 cards are possible lotter
=
8
There are 4 king cards + 4 queen cards]
PIE- 3213
(g) Total possible cases n = 52
Number of favourable cases m Al! 52 cards are possible]
=4 : There are 4 queen cards] E
Monda
P[E] n 52 S
the sev

PE=1- Tc
Th
4
=i-.
$2.
(h) Total possible cases n 52 A l ! $2 cards are possible)
Number of favourable cases m =1| There is one queen club cerd
Ex
PIE Ans. So
Monday,
Eramle 3. An unbiased six face die is thrown. Find out the probab1lity that ! will give Saturd
(a) Number4 (6) even number Tota
(c) A number multuple of3
Solution. (a) Totai possible cases n = 6
(d) A number multiple of S The
A l l six numbers are poss1blel Nun
Number of favourable cases = 1 There is oniy one four number]

P[E)= Ani.
n 6
(6) Total possible cases n = 6 A l l six numbers are possible) Exar
Number of favourable cases m 3 : There are 3 even numbers ie 2,4 or 6]
blind pers=
(a) 5
P[E) =Ans.
2
(c)7
Solut
(c) Total possible cases n =
6 A l l six numbers are possiblel
Numb
Number of favourable cases n = 2 There are two numbers multiple of 3 ie 3, 6

PLEJ=|=;Ans.
(d) Total possible cases n = 6 all six numbers are possible] (6) To
Number of favourable cases n1 = 1 : There is only one number multuple of 5 e. 5] Numb
PE]"= Ant
n
 PRCBABIL!TY THEORY 659
15 white balls, ball is drawn at random. Hhat
Example 4. A box containing 10 black balls and
a

is the prodability that it is a white bail ?

Solution. Total possible cases n
=
25 : There are total 25 ballsj
Number of favourable cases m = 15 There are 15 white bails

PIE]-= Ans.
Example S. in a college there are 100 lecturers and 50 clerks. Astaf member is to be selected iy
?
lotery method What is the probability that a clerk will be selected
Solutioa. Total possible cases n = l50 There are total 150 staff members
Number of favourable cases m = 50 There are total 50 clerks]

PIE] -150 Ans.

Example 6. What is the probability tha: a non-leap year selected at random will have 53
Mondeys?
Solution. A non-leap year has 365 days. There are full 52 wecks. One day left may be any one of
the sever days of a week. Therefore,
Tctal possible cases n= 7
There will he 53 Mondays if one day left is a Monday. Therefore,
m =1
m

PE Ans.
Example 7. HWhat is the probability that a leop year selected at random will have 53 Mondays
Solution. Leap year has 366 days. it has 52 complete wecks. 2 days left may be Sunday
Monday, Monday - Tuesday, Tuesday- Wednesday, Wednesday - Thursday, Thursday Friday, Friday

Saturday arnd Saturday Sunday. Therefore

Total possible cases n =7
There will be 53 Mondays i f two days left are Sunday - Monday or Monday Tuesday. Therefore,

Number of favourable cases m =2

P[E)==; Ans.
n
a ticket is drawn by a
nple 8. From a box containing tickets numbered 1. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6..20,
Exs
drawn will have a numbered?
blind person. What is the probability that a ticke!
(6) 12 or more than 12
(a) S or multiple of 5
c) 7 or less than 7
Solution. (a) Number of possible cases n 20
= All numbers are equally probablel
Nur ber of favourable cases m = 4 : 4 numbers ie. 5, 10, 15 and 20 are multiples of S]

P[E =20 Ans.

(6) 1 otal possible cases n 20
Num ver of favourable cases m =9 These are 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20]

PE= 920 Ans.

 MODERN QUANTTTATIVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS (B.COM. PRO
660
(c) Total possible cases n =
20
Number of favourable cases m = 7. IThese are 7,6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and I|

PIE Ans.
20
Above, we have solved some simple questions of probability For solving typical questions of
probability, understanding of the Fundamental Prirciple of Association, the concept of factorial and the
concept of combination is must. Now we will discuss them in brief
Fundamental Principle of Association. According to this principle, if any operatio can be
performed in 'a' ways and corresponding to each way of performing this operation, second can be
performed in b' ways, then the possible number of associations between the two operations is a b
If, in the above case, corresponding to each way of performing second event, third can be performed
in 'cways, possible number of associations is a x b x c.
Following examples make it ciear.
Exomple 9. Two coins are tossed simultaneousty. Find cut the possible number ofassociations P
Solution :

Ist coin IInd coin Associalions

-H HH
H
H HT

TH

TT

a 2
Pos
b2
Number of possible associations is 2 x 2 = 4. Ex
the sané
These are HH, HT, TH and TT Sol
Example 10. Three coins are tossed simui aneoushy Find out the possible number of assoctanons and C
Solution:

Ist coin IInd coin Ilrd coin Associations

H HiHH
H
HHT

H
HTH

HTT

THH
H
THT

H TTH

TTT
 PRORABILITY THEORY
cOM. Example 1!. Two six-faced dice ure thrown simultaneously 6.1|
Find out the number of associotions
Solution :
2and
32
2
3 34
stions of 4 35
15 36
I and the 16
21
22 61
n can be
23 62
d can be 63
64
is a 6.
66
erformed
a=6
= 6
ialtions Possible number of associations a x b 6 6
=
36 Ans.
= * =

Example 12. Fivo individuals are to apply

Solution : Suppose two persons are denotedfor two houses. Find out the possible number of ways
as 1, 2 and two houses are
denoted as A and B.
INDIVIUALI NDIVIUALI COMBINATION
A AA

-B AB
BA

B BB
a2
b2
Possidle number of associations a b 2 2 4
=
x = x
Ans. =

Example 13. Three individuals are :o apply for three houses so that no
the same house. Find out the two individuals
possible number of ways apply for
Solution: Suppose three persons are denoted
sOciations5.
and C. by 1, 2 and 3 and three houses are denoted
by A, B
INDIVIUAL

B C

-B

B- A
 FOR BUSINESS (B.COM. i
MODERN gUANTITAT!VE TECHNIQUES
662 choices. =Theretoreo 5
Ist individual has three Thérefore b =
2
choices left.
2nd individual has two Thereforec= !
choice lef
3rd individual has one x b x c
associations a =

Possible number of = 3 x 2x l = 6 Ans.

positive integers from n to . Mathematically,
Factorial. Byfactorial »fn!] we mean theproduct ofall
1.n 2. n -

3. .. 1
n!=n.n-
-

For example 4 3 x 2 x 1 720

6! 6x 5 x x

2x l 120
5! 5 4x 3 =
x x

ImportantNote: 0!
=
1 out of the
combinations the differernt groups which are possible
we mean
Combinations. By 'n individuals and we are
all of thcm in a group. If there are
population whèn we take some of them or is
to construct group of '7 individuals,
the number of poss1ble combinaticns
nC Mathematically,
n!
C In-
must be kept in mind while finding the number of comb1nations
Following points
() "C = 1
ti) "Cel
( i )"C =
iv)C.="C,-, binations clear.
examples given below will make tie conccpt of
com
The
be drawn. Find ou: the possible.number of
Example 14. From a box containing 5 balls, 2
are to

ways or combinations.

Solution:n =5, r =2
Possible number of combinations
5
nCC2 (5-2)12!
x 4x3x2X1- j0Ans.
3x2x1x2
class with 10 studenis, a group of4 students is to be taken.
Example 15. From a

Find out the number of ways or combinations

Solution. Possible number of combinations = "C, = °C,

10! 10x9x8x7x6x5x 4 x:x2xl

(10-4) 4 6x5x4 x3x2x1x4 x3x2x1
= 210 Ans.
be drawn such
16. A òag contains S red and 4 green balls. Fine ballsare to in a way so
Example
that 3 are red and 2 green. Find ihe possible number of ways
Solution. For Red balls n = 5, r =3
Possible number of ways "C, = °C

For Greenballs n 4,r =2

=

Possible number of ways "C, = "C

Possible associations of red and green balls

= SC C2
5x4x3x2x14x3x2xl.- 60 Ans.
2x1x3x2 x1 2xlx2x1

.
PROBABILITY THEORY H663J
EXAmple 17.Fron: a class of 5 boys una 3 g1ris, a
commiltee f4 is to be formed so that 2 are boys
number of ways. Verify your answer
and 2 girls. Find out the pos_ible
Sclution.
Possib.e
For boys n 3, 2
number of ways "C, = 'C,
=
r

C2
For girls n =
3, r =
2
Possibie number of ways "C, °C2
Possible number of associ?tions of boys and girls
3x2x1
=
C2x c, Sx2*I
C221x2x1ix2xl =

= 3 x 3 =9
3 These
Verification. Suppose thi ee boys are A, B and C. Possible combinations of two are
C2 =

are AB, BC and CA.

C, 3 These
Possible coinbinations of two are
=

band are
Similarly, suppose three girls are a, c.

ab, bc and ca. Possible associations of boys and girlsare

Boys Girls
ab

AB bc

BC be

ca

CA bc

ca

Therefore associations possible

9. Ans.
= 3 3 =

2
be drawn that 4 are red and
six cards a r e to su
Example 18. From u we!l mixedpack of cards
number of ways
black. Find out the possible
Solution. For Red cards n = 26, r = 4

Number of possible cases "C. =

26Ca
For Black cards 26, r=2
Number of possible cases "C, 26C, =

Number of associations of Red and Black cards =

26C >
26C2
26 26!
26-4!4 26-2 2 1
23 22 x 21 1 26x 25 x 24 x 23 x 22
26x 25 x 24 x x .

22 x 21 x 20 2 xl
22 x 21x 2 14x 3x 2x
14950 325 4858750 Ans. studenis arne to be selected
students and 4 boy students. Three
then 5 g1rl
Example 19. In a class
are
number ofways.
is ti Find out the possible
in such a way s o that no boy ere.

3
Solution. For girlsn =5, r
=

Number of possible cases ",

=
°C3
n = 4,r = 0
For boys
 F ROB
FOR BUSINESS (B COM I
gUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES
MODERN
564 F cases "C, Ca
-
(
Nunber of possible of girls and boys C, "C% S
Number of associations
4
S-3131 4-0101
(a
Sx4x3x2x1, 4 x3x2xl = 10
9 x* i ==
10 Ans.
10 Ans.
2xlx3x2x1 4x3x 2xlx1 TH
EXAMPLES OF PROBABILITY| In
PRACTICAL
SOME MORE
probubility that boih will give
out the
20. 7wo tossed s1multaneously Find
Example
coins are
H
heads 2 x
2 4
Solution. Total number of associations
n =
o xb Or n
TH and TT
These association are HH, HT,
Number of favourable cases =!
It is HH
PIE] Ans.
than
What is the probability that two or more
(b)
Example 21. Three coins are lossedsimultanecusly.
wo tails will be there ? or = 2 x 2 2 8
=axbxcC TH
Solution. Total number of associaiions n THH, THT, TTH and.TTT
These associations are HHH, HHT, HTH, HTT,
Number of favourable cases m 4 =

These are HTT, THT, TTH and TTT

PIE) 8
=-Ans.
thrown simultaneously. Find out the probability
that sum of the
Example 22. Two six,face die are

wo nEmbers will be
8 (6)Equal to or more than 10
rumber on the second.
(c) Number on the first is equal to
Selution. Total possible number of associations
n =ax b = 6 x 6= 36
35, 36, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45,
Thesc 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 31, 32, 33, 34,
are
and 66.
46, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65
a) Sum is 8
Number of favourable cases m = 5

These are 26, 35, 44, 53 and 62

m

P[E) 36
(b) Sum 1s equal to more than 10
Number of favourable cases m =6
These are 46, 64, 55, 56, 65 and 66

PIE]= - 2 - l Ans
36 6
(c) Number on the first is equal to number on the second Exar
Number of favourable cases m =6 What is th
These are 11, 22, 33, 44, 55 and 66
6
Solu
PIE = = Ans Balls
36 6
 M PROBABILI IY THEORY-
Examplc 23. 7iree Gppiicaus are
(a) Al the 3 apply for the same houseupply for 3 houres independently What is the
io
t 665
Solution. Total possible number of (b) They apply for probability that
ways in which 3 different houses.
= xb xc n a applicants can apply for 3 houses are
= 3 x 3 3- 27
(a) Apply for same house
m 3x1 =3
ITY These ways
individuals
are shown below
vll give ill
A-A -- A
Houses B-- B- - B
C--C-- C
a 3 , b = 1 and c =1
m=3 x1x l =3
PiE)== 3,
one han Ans.
(b) Apply for different houses
m 3 x
2x 1
These ways =6
are shown beiow:

INDIVIDUALI IVDIVIDUAL I1 INDIVIDUAL I

um of the

-B

,44,45,

-B
C

B -

a 3, b 2, c = 1
m =3x 2 xl 6

PLE= = =29 An.

Example 24. A bag contains 4 white, : red and 6

What is thechance that one is white, green balls. Three balls drawn
one is red and one is green?
are at random
Solution. Total balls = 15
Balls drawn 3
 QUANTITATIVE TECHNI 2UES FOR BUSINESS (B.COM.
666Total number of ways possibleMODERN
n = C

Number of favourable ways

m = *C, x C C
White Red Green
P[EP"-xCx °Ci4x5x6
1C 455
120 =
263 Ans.
P[E]=
455
Example 25. A bag contains 7 white and nine black balls. Two balls are drawn ran.domly one after
ihe other Find out the probability that one ofthem is white and other is black
Solution. Total number of possible ways n = °C

Nunmber of favourable cases CxC

PIEJ
n
CxC68
16 C2 120
=0 525 Ans.
Example 26. A bag contains 8 white and 4 red balls. Two balls are àrawn at random. What is the
probability that
(a) Both are white. (b) Both are red.
(c) One is red and one is white?
Solution. (a) Total possible ways = 12C, = 66
Number of favourabie cases *C, C 28 1 = 28
28 14
P[E== Ans.
66 33
(6) Total possible ways 2C, = 66
Number of favcurable cases m = "C, x *Co =.6 xi = 6

P[E- Ans.
66 11
( ) Total possible ways C2 = 66
Number offavourable cascs *Cx 4C, = 8 x 4 = 32

PIEJ=2 16 Ans.
66 33
Example 27. There are 3 ecoromists, 4 engineers und 2 statusticians A committ e of 4 is to be
formed by lottery method Find out the probability that
(a) There are 2 economusts and 2 engineers. (6) Engineer is not there
Solution. (a) Total possible number of ways n = C = 126

Number of favourable cases C, C, x 2C =3 x 6xl = 18

PIE = " 1 8 Ans.

n 126
(6) Total possible number of ways n = C = 126

Number of favourable cases

Enginecr is not there Number of ways =
"Co =

It means all the four are economists or statisticians

Number of ways C = 5

m =
15 =5 P[E="=Ans.
126
PROBABILITY THEORY
t667
Example 28. În a colege there are 10 leciurers, the principal and5 clerks A Committee of four is
o be jurned so that all heve same chance to be incthuded in a Commitee. Find the probability that
a) Clerks are not given representation in the Committee
(6) Pr:ncipal Sir is there m Commitee.
() Two lecturers and 2 Clerks are in Committee.
Solution. Total possible number of ways n =1ÓC = 1820.
(a) Number of favourable cases m = liC x C 330

P[E] = 2Ans,
1820 182
6) Number of favourable cases
Principal S i r i s t h e r e : N u m b e r o f ways C =1

It means remaining 3 are clerks or lecturers

Number of ways = C 455
m =1 x 455 =455

P[E="=4551

n 1820
(c) Number of favourable cases m =
Cx C, "C%x

=
45 x 10 x 1 =
450
PIE]==45045 Ans.
1820 182
Example 29. From apack of 52 cards, two carda are drawn at random. What is tihe probability that
(a) One is king and one is queen (6) Two Aces are there.
(c) One is red and one is black.
Solution. Total number of possible ways
$2!
n= C2 1326.
52-2!2!
() Numbercffaveurable cases m = C x 4C = 4 x 4 16

PLE- =Ans.
n 1326 663
(b) Number of favourable cases
m= C2 x Co =6
(Aces) (Non Aces)
6
PE 1326 221
Ars.

(c) Number of favourable cases

m 26C, x 26C
26 26 = 676
PIE] 67630
1326 663
Ans.
Example 30. An employer wishes to hire 4 people fn m a group of 20 applicants, out of which 10
are men and 10 women. What is the probability that
(a) all four will be men ? (6) all four will be women ?
() they will be in the ratio of the umber of applicats ?
Solution. Total number of possible ways
n- C 4845
668 MODERN QUANTITATTVE TECHNIQUES FOR BUSINESS (B.COM. D
(a) Number of favou able cases PRO
m 1C, x i°C 210 x 1 = 210

42 14
PIE=210
Ans.
4845 969 323
(6) Nunber of favourable cases them1
m-10Cx1C 210 Mathe
P[E]= 210 14
4845 3 2 7 Ans.

(c) Ratio of applicants

E
Male: Female itis a
10 10 The tw

Therefore, out of four, two should be male and two female

Number of favcurable ca_es
m= C , x C, = 45 x 45 2025
P[E]= =2025
4845

PIE] 405 Ans.

969
Example 31. Following is the distr ibuion offans in different houses
Number of Fans Number of Houses
10
15
2 25
40
10

105
A house is selected al random. What is the probability that
(a) lt will have 2 ans (6) I will have 3 or less than 3 fans ?
th
(c) More than 4 Jans
Solution. Number of possible ways n = 105
Proc
(a) Number ef favourable cases m = 25
For
exclusive
PLE Ans and m, ar
(b) Number of favourable cases m = 40 +25 + 15 + 10 90 below
90 6 By de
PIE] Ans.
105 7
P
(c) Number of favourable cases m = 5

P[EJ-==Ans. P
PE 105 21 ^ Since
Theorems of Probability
m2 Cases v
Now we wiil discuss different theorems of probability.
probability
 PROBABILITY THEORY
ADDITION THEOREM OF PROLABILITY 569
1st Case: When events mutually exclusive.
are
Statement. if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then the probability that
them will occur (cither A will any one of
occur or Bwill occur) is equal to the sum of two separate prcbabilities.
Mathematically,
PJA B] P(A)+ P(B)
O
P[A UB]-= P(A) + P(B)
Explanation. Suppose a
card is drawn from a pack of cards. Frurther
it is a king card and event B is that it is
a queen card.
suppose that event A is that
The two events can b shown as below: Naturally the two events are mutually exclusive

$2 CARDS

4 4

KINGS QUEENS

A
B

4
P(A)P[King] 52 =

4
FB) =P[Queen)= 52
P(A+B) P(A) P(B) + =

In the case of three events A, B and C

52 57 13 Ans
Ans.
P[A+B+C] =
P(A) +P(B) +P(C)
Proof
For Two Events : Suppose A and R are two
exclusive equally likely cases, mutually exclusive events. Oui of total 'n'
and m, are favourable to events. mutually
m, are favourabie to event B. This can be shown
below as

By definition
PCA)
P(B) = "2 m
n
Since A and B ae
mutually exclusive events, total m+
ma cases will favour event A u B B
(or A +B). Therefore,
probability of this ncw event, by definition, will be equal to
uttttttftthttTttt. MODERN QUANTTTATIVE TECHNIQUEs FOR BUSINESS (B COM. ji PROE
670 *m2
P(A U B) -
"
P
UB)- , "2
P(A
P(AU B) - P (A) +P (B). Hence proved P
exclusive events We have proved abuve
Fer Three Events : Suppose A, B and C are three mutually P
P(AB) - P(A) + P(B)
Let us replace event B by another event BuC, where B and C are mutualiy exclusive exclus1
(A)+ P (B uC) N
P[A (BuC)] P =

Since B and C are mutually exclusive T

P(BC) P(B) +P(C)
St
Therefore P(AUBUC)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C). Hence proved.
In this way, it can be gencralised for any number of events. Pu
2nd Case. When events are not mutually exclusive.
Statement. If A and B are two events not mutually exclusivc, then the probability that any Le
one of two events will occur (or atleast one of them vill occur) is
P(A +B) = P(A) +P(B) - P(A B) Tai
or P(A UB)= P(A) +P(B) - P (A nB). S
Explanation. Suppose fiom a pack of cards, we draw a card. Further suppose that cvent A is that
it is a king card and event B is that it is a black card. Events are not mulually exclusive because king card Put
may be black and black card may be king. The two events can be shown as ahead
KH King of Heart
"

Kp King of Diamond Put

52 CARDSs
(Fo
Let
KING
CARDS BLACK or
CARDS

or
or

Fron
A

K, King of Spade Exa

K = King of Club a) N
4 olu
PA) =
P (King) =

52
26
P(B) P(Black card)52
2 iupp
P(A B)= P[King as well as Black]=
cOM FROBABILITY THEORY
Now, probability that it will be any of the king and biack card
T671
28 7
PA B)- P(A)+ P(B) P(A. B) * 522 3213
- =

In the case of three events A, B and C

P[A +B+C] = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(AB) - P(BC) - P(CA) + P(ABC)

ed aoo Proof. (For Twe Events)

Suppose A and B are two events which are not mutuaily
exclusive as shown i the figure
Now A B = Au(B - A)
Taking probability of both sides
PAUB) = P{(A) u (B - A}]
..) m2
Since A and B - A are mutually exclusive therefore,

P[AU (B- A)] = P(A) + P(B - A) ii) B

Putting this value in (), we have

A
PA B ) = P{A) + P (B- A) ..ii)
that any Let us take event B
B -(AnB) u (B -A)
Taking probability cr both sides P(B) = P{(A n B) u (B - A)!
(iv)
Since (A B) and (B - A) are mutually exclusive, therefore
A is thas P[(A B) u (B - A]= P(A n B) + P(B - A)
ing cad Putting this vaiue in (iv), we have
P(B) = P(AnB) + P(B - A)
PB A) = P(B) -- P(A nB) (v)
Putting this value in (ii), we have
P(A B ) = P(A) + P(B) P(A n B) (Iv)
(For Three Events)
Let us replace B by BuCin equation number (vi)
P[A (B u C)) = P(A) + P(B u C) - P[A n (BuC)]
PËAB C) = P(A)+ P(B) + P(C) - P(B nC) - P[A n B) u (A n C)]
or
(Distribution law)
or PCA BUC) -P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(B nC)-P(An B) +P(A nC) P(AnBnC)]
or P(A UBUC)- PA) +P(B) +P(C)-P(B nC)-PMAnB)-P(An C)P(An Bn)
(vii)
From results no. (vi) and (vii), we can generalise the iheorem for 'n' events

SOME PRACTICAL PROBLEMS

umber
Example 32.A six face die is thrown. What is the probability that we wi!l get a .

(a) Multiple of 2 or mulnple of 5 (6) Multiple of 2 or multiple of 3 ?

Solution. (a) Suppose getting multiple of 2 is denoted as event A

RA)-
of 5 is denoted event B
Suppose getting multiple as

P(B) = =
6
672 H MODERN QUANTITATTVE TECHNIQUES, FOR BUSINESS (B.COM.
A id B are mutually exclusive because multipie of 2 ie. 2, 4 2nd 6 can not be mult1ple of 5
Applying addition theorem
PA+B)-P(A) P(B) 6=2+=<= 2 Ans
Ans.
6 6 3
(6) Suppose getting multiple of 2 is denoted as event A
PCA)
6
Suppose getting multiple of 3 is denoted as event B
PB)
A and B are not mutually exclusive because number six is common.

P(A. B)
Applying addition theorem
P(A+B) =P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
3 2 - 1 = 4 4 Ans

Exampe 33.A card is drawn at random from a well mixed pack ofcards. What is the probability
that it isa heart or a queen?
Solution. Suppose A is the event of drawing heart card.
13
PA)
Suppose B is the evert of drawing a queen card.

PB) =52
Events are not mutually exclusive because queen of heart type is there,

P (AB) $2
Applying addition theoreva
P(A +B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)

= 41_16.
52 52 52 52 13Ans.
Exarple 34. Aperson isknownto hit the target 3 times out of5 trials. Another person 1s knownt
hit the target 2 times out of5 trials. What is the probabitiy that any one of them wil be able to hit the
target if both of them try
Solution. Probability that lst person will be able to hit the target
PCA)-
Probability that another person will be able to hit the target
P(B)
A and B are not mutually exclusive because both can hit the target
P(AB)-PCA)xP(B) =x*5
Applying addition theorem
P(A +B)- P(A) + P{B) î P(AB)
19
Ans.
25 25