Professionalism & Quality 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   

 
 
 

 
 
 

   

 
 
 

   

 
 
 

 
 

 
 

 
 
 
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

close to
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   

 
 
 
 
 

   

 
 
 
 
 
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Summary Capesize Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize

NB 47.0 26.0 24.0 23.5 23.0
resale 50.0 27.5 25.5 24.5 23.5
5y 30.0 19.5 16.0 15.3 14.5
10y 19.0 12.3 9.5 9.0 8.5
15y 11.5 7.5 6.0 5.8 5.5
20y 8.0 5.5 4.3 3.9 3.5
scrap 6.9 4.1 3.3 2.9 2.1
All prices are excluding scrubbers
NB parity 19 386 12 908 11 893 11 262 10 644
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε 𝜏

ε 𝜏
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε
ε
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Price differential 62% FE 58% FE

140 35

Price differential: 62% vs 58% (USD/mt)

Price of imported iron ore (USD/mt)
120 30

100 25

80 20

60 15

40 10

20 5

0 0

Mining investment
super-cycle

Ongoing mining
investment cycle
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

¹
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   

 
 
 
 
 

   

 
 

 
 
 

   

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

100
90
Tanker vessel valuation
80 VLCC Suezmax Aframax
70 LR1 MR

60

USDm
50
40
30
20
10
0

Age
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε 𝜏

ε 𝜏
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   

   

   

   

   

   
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

70%
Weighted avg crude imports: China (tonne-miles)
60%
y/y
50%
1y MA
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10%

-20%

-30%
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

 
 

   

   

   

   

   

   

   

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

   

   

   

   

   

   
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   

   

   

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

   

   
 
 
 
 
 
 
   
 
   

 
 
 

   
   
   
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
   

   
   
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

80 14%
VLCC
Million DWT on floating storage

70 12%
Suezmax
60 Aframax
% of Oil Tanker fleet

10%
Other
50
% of Oil Tanker fleet 8%
40
6%
30
4%
20

10 2%

0 0%
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Supply/Demand (mDWT)
Oil Tankers, base case 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Deliveries¹ 9 7 11 17 19 12 20 25 21 24 18 22 26 37 32 35 28 17 11 12 26 33 24 32 21 22 16 18
Scrapping¹ (6) (3) (6) (16) (14) (16) (17) (19) (8) (4) (3) (3) (4) (7) (11) (9) (11) (11) (7) (2) (2) (11) (20) (3) (4) (12) (9) (8)
Other¹ 0 (1) (1) 1 1 (2) 1 2 2 1 2 1 (6) (1) (6) (1) 0 2 3 5 6 3 1 (5) 6 (0) 0 0
Contracting¹ 13 29 17 11 36 24 20 49 39 30 94 42 54 15 37 12 14 37 28 51 12 35 27 25 16 18 29 33
Supply² 264 267 270 275 277 279 275 285 297 315 335 354 369 399 416 439 458 473 475 488 511 542 549 571 591 605 613 621
Δ y/y 304% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% -1.5% 3.6% 4.2% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 4.1% 8.2% 4.1% 5.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.6% 2.6% 4.8% 6.0% 1.3% 4.0% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.2%
Demand² 222 230 227 223 247 249 230 256 281 295 310 324 349 322 346 353 371 387 401 443 432 435 435 490 513 483 526 543
Δ y/y 3.4% -1.0% -2.1% 10.8% 0.9% -7.5% 11.2% 9.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 7.8% -7.7% 7.4% 2.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.6% 10.5% -2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 12.5% 4.8% -5.9% 8.8% 3.3%
Utilization² 84% 86% 84% 81% 89% 89% 84% 90% 95% 94% 93% 91% 95% 81% 83% 81% 81% 82% 84% 91% 85% 80% 79% 86% 87% 80% 86% 87%
Oil Tankers² (TCE/d) 16,568 20,175 16,736 12,326 27,563 27,802 16,397 29,047 44,444 40,162 36,391 32,769 43,115 12,734 15,537 12,007 12,558 13,626 17,930 31,036 18,047 11,655 11,216 22,168 25,245 12,119 21,048 24,613
VLCC, spot² (TCE/d) 21,280 55,440 38,829 23,293 52,453 97,146 63,054 64,914 58,795 97,152 28,434 34,060 18,596 21,187 18,621 30,015 64,846 41,908 17,794 15,561 41,364 54,090 20,353 42,842 51,821
Suezmax, spot² (TCE/d) 22,886 16,334 45,506 33,865 19,765 41,648 69,369 57,715 54,517 43,437 73,863 25,733 27,864 18,432 16,908 15,511 27,791 46,713 27,799 15,436 16,466 31,560 32,330 15,573 30,165 35,991
Aframax, spot² (TCE/d) 44,864 39,651 33,311 50,010 14,370 17,690 12,378 12,541 14,131 24,705 37,977 23,142 13,873 16,175 26,225 23,991 13,559 23,747 27,814
MR, spot² (TCE/d) 25,543 23,669 21,168 9,176 10,692 10,638 10,589 13,277 12,360 21,405 12,166 10,220 8,750 13,740 16,121 10,153 14,831 16,699
VLCC, 5y² (USDm) 51 53 66 66 56 61 87 116 119 126 142 85 87 77 63 56 74 81 68 62 62 67 67 62 83 100
Suezmax, 5y² (USDm) 37 36 44 45 39 44 59 75 77 90 95 61 62 54 45 40 50 60 49 41 41 46 46 41 54 65
Aframax, 5y² (USDm) 26 25 33 38 28 34 48 62 65 68 71 44 44 39 31 29 39 46 36 30 31 36 37 32 42 51
MR, 5y² (USDm) 22 20 23 25 20 25 33 44 47 50 50 29 27 29 25 26 27 28 25 24 25 27 27 24 27 30
OB² 19 32 43 40 41 56 59 66 82 87 120 159 176 153 130 107 70 56 71 86 90 70 71 58 50 42 44 59
OB/Fleet² 7% 12% 16% 14% 15% 20% 22% 23% 28% 28% 36% 45% 48% 38% 31% 24% 15% 12% 15% 18% 18% 13% 13% 10% 8% 7% 7% 10%
Share Index² 19 25 66 49 113 139 100 146 378 576 548 630 587 401 442 298 158 131 176 222 169 172 149 185 199 160 296 413
¹Sum during period ²Average during period
Oil Tankers, low case 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Deliveries¹ 9 7 11 17 19 12 20 25 21 24 18 22 26 37 32 35 28 17 11 12 26 33 24 32 22 23 15 16
Scrapping¹ (6) (3) (6) (16) (14) (16) (17) (19) (8) (4) (3) (3) (4) (7) (11) (9) (11) (11) (7) (2) (2) (11) (20) (3) (3) (6) (5) (4)
Other¹ 0 (1) (1) 1 1 (2) 1 2 2 1 2 1 (6) (1) (6) (1) 0 2 3 5 6 3 1 4 2 (0) (0) (0)
Contracting¹ 13 29 17 11 36 24 20 49 39 30 94 42 54 15 37 12 14 37 28 51 12 35 27 25 15 17 31 28
Supply² 264 267 270 275 277 279 275 285 297 315 335 354 369 399 416 439 458 473 475 488 511 542 549 576 599 617 631 641
Δ y/y 304% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% -1.5% 3.6% 4.2% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 4.1% 8.2% 4.1% 5.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.6% 2.6% 4.8% 6.0% 1.3% 5.0% 3.9% 3.1% 2.2% 1.6%
Demand² 230 227 223 247 249 230 256 281 295 310 324 349 322 346 353 371 387 401 443 432 435 435 490 505 482 550 555
Δ y/y -1.0% -2.1% 10.8% 0.9% -7.5% 11.2% 9.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 7.8% -7.7% 7.4% 2.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.6% 10.5% -2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 12.5% 3.0% -4.4% 14.1% 0.8%
Utilization² 86% 84% 81% 89% 89% 84% 90% 95% 94% 93% 91% 95% 81% 83% 81% 81% 82% 84% 91% 85% 80% 79% 85% 84% 78% 87% 87%
Oil Tankers² (TCE/d) 20,175 16,736 12,326 27,563 27,802 16,397 29,047 44,444 40,162 36,391 32,769 43,115 12,734 15,537 12,007 12,558 13,626 17,930 31,036 18,047 11,655 11,216 22,168 24,130 9,793 23,803 22,281
VLCC, spot² (TCE/d) 21,280 55,440 38,829 23,293 52,453 97,146 63,054 64,914 58,795 97,152 28,434 34,060 18,596 21,187 18,621 30,015 64,846 41,908 17,794 15,561 41,364 51,280 14,496 49,781 45,946
Suezmax, spot² (TCE/d) 22,886 16,334 45,506 33,865 19,765 41,648 69,369 57,715 54,517 43,437 73,863 25,733 27,864 18,432 16,908 15,511 27,791 46,713 27,799 15,436 16,466 31,560 30,507 11,773 34,668 32,179
Aframax, spot² (TCE/d) 44,864 39,651 33,311 50,010 14,370 17,690 12,378 12,541 14,131 24,705 37,977 23,142 13,873 16,175 26,225 22,718 10,905 26,890 25,153
MR, spot² (TCE/d) 25,543 23,669 21,168 9,176 10,692 10,638 10,589 13,277 12,360 21,405 12,166 10,220 8,750 13,740 15,536 8,934 16,275 15,477
VLCC, 5y² (USDm) 51 53 66 66 56 61 87 116 119 126 142 85 87 77 63 56 74 81 68 62 62 67 64 57 93 86
Suezmax, 5y² (USDm) 37 36 44 45 39 44 59 75 77 90 95 61 62 54 45 40 50 60 49 41 41 46 44 39 61 57
Aframax, 5y² (USDm) 26 25 33 38 28 34 48 62 65 68 71 44 44 39 31 29 39 46 36 30 31 36 35 30 48 45
MR, 5y² (USDm) 22 20 23 25 20 25 33 44 47 50 50 29 27 29 25 26 27 28 25 24 25 27 26 20 29 27
OB² 19 32 43 40 41 56 59 66 82 87 120 159 176 153 130 107 70 56 71 86 90 70 71 58 50 40 42 58
OB/Fleet² 7% 12% 16% 14% 15% 20% 22% 23% 28% 28% 36% 45% 48% 38% 31% 24% 15% 12% 15% 18% 18% 13% 13% 10% 8% 6% 7% 9%
¹Sum during period ²Average during period
Oil Tankers, high case 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Deliveries¹ 9 7 11 17 19 12 20 25 21 24 18 22 26 37 32 35 28 17 11 12 26 33 24 32 21 21 16 36
Scrapping¹ (6) (3) (6) (16) (14) (16) (17) (19) (8) (4) (3) (3) (4) (7) (11) (9) (11) (11) (7) (2) (2) (11) (20) (3) (5) (15) (11) (10)
Other¹ 0 (1) (1) 1 1 (2) 1 2 2 1 2 1 (6) (1) (6) (1) 0 2 3 5 6 3 1 4 2 0 (0) (0)
Contracting¹ 13 29 17 11 36 24 20 49 39 30 94 42 54 15 37 12 14 37 28 51 12 35 27 25 21 39 37 44
Supply² 264 267 270 275 277 279 275 285 297 315 335 354 369 399 416 439 458 473 475 488 511 542 549 576 598 607 613 628
Δ y/y 304% 0.9% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.8% -1.5% 3.6% 4.2% 6.3% 6.1% 5.9% 4.1% 8.2% 4.1% 5.5% 4.5% 3.1% 0.6% 2.6% 4.8% 6.0% 1.3% 5.0% 3.8% 1.5% 1.0% 2.5%
Demand² 230 227 223 247 249 230 256 281 295 310 324 349 322 346 353 371 387 401 443 432 435 435 490 526 543 528 568
Δ y/y -1.0% -2.1% 10.8% 0.9% -7.5% 11.2% 9.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4% 7.8% -7.7% 7.4% 2.1% 5.1% 4.3% 3.6% 10.5% -2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 12.5% 7.3% 3.3% -2.8% 7.6%
Utilization² 86% 84% 81% 89% 89% 84% 90% 95% 94% 93% 91% 95% 81% 83% 81% 81% 82% 84% 91% 85% 80% 79% 85% 88% 89% 86% 90%
Oil Tankers² (TCE/d) 20,175 16,736 12,326 27,563 27,802 16,397 29,047 44,444 40,162 36,391 32,769 43,115 12,734 15,537 12,007 12,558 13,626 17,930 31,036 18,047 11,655 11,216 22,168 28,323 31,281 23,838 32,553
VLCC, spot² (TCE/d) 21,280 55,440 38,829 23,293 52,453 97,146 63,054 64,914 58,795 97,152 28,434 34,060 18,596 21,187 18,621 30,015 64,846 41,908 17,794 15,561 41,364 61,843 68,614 49,870 71,819
Suezmax, spot² (TCE/d) 22,886 16,334 45,506 33,865 19,765 41,648 69,369 57,715 54,517 43,437 73,863 25,733 27,864 18,432 16,908 15,511 27,791 46,713 27,799 15,436 16,466 31,560 37,360 46,887 34,725 48,967
Aframax, spot² (TCE/d) 44,864 39,651 33,311 50,010 14,370 17,690 12,378 12,541 14,131 24,705 37,977 23,142 13,873 16,175 26,225 27,502 35,422 26,930 36,874
MR, spot² (TCE/d) 25,543 23,669 21,168 9,176 10,692 10,638 10,589 13,277 12,360 21,405 12,166 10,220 8,750 13,740 17,734 20,192 16,293 20,859
VLCC, 5y² (USDm) 51 53 66 66 56 61 87 116 119 126 142 85 87 77 63 56 74 81 68 62 62 67 76 115 110 129
Suezmax, 5y² (USDm) 37 36 44 45 39 44 59 75 77 90 95 61 62 54 45 40 50 60 49 41 41 46 52 75 72 84
Aframax, 5y² (USDm) 26 25 33 38 28 34 48 62 65 68 71 44 44 39 31 29 39 46 36 30 31 36 41 59 57 67
MR, 5y² (USDm) 22 20 23 25 20 25 33 44 47 50 50 29 27 29 25 26 27 28 25 24 25 27 28 34 33 38
OB² 19 32 43 40 41 56 59 66 82 87 120 159 176 153 130 107 70 56 71 86 90 70 71 58 50 57 73 92
OB/Fleet² 7% 12% 16% 14% 15% 20% 22% 23% 28% 28% 36% 45% 48% 38% 31% 24% 15% 12% 15% 18% 18% 13% 13% 10% 8% 9% 12% 15%
¹Sum during period ²Average during period
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε 𝜏

ε 𝜏

ε
ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε
ε
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε 𝜏

ε 𝜏

ε
ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

ε
ε
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

EIA's EIA's
Forecast Forecast
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Δ y/y
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

3.0 100% 1.8

1.6

1y Moving Avg tonne mile growth

2.5 80%
Million tonnes per month

1.4

Million tonnes per month

2.0 60% 1.2

1.0
1.5 40%
0.8

1.0 20% 0.6

0.4
0.5 0%
0.2
0.0 -20% 0.0

Saudi UAE USA Other y/y MA (tonne miles)

~
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Demand/Supply ('000 cbm)

Base case 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Deliveries¹ 158 - 240 398 567 241 646 161 235 575 904 2,206 975 733 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,688 1,730 829 1,394 1,753 1,805 992 1,761 2,484 2,392
Scrapping¹ - - - - - (360) (372) (300) (76) (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (154) (391) - (96) (468) (627) (464) (75) (157)
Other¹ 0 - (0) (0) 0 0 0 (0) (76) (71) (0) (76) (80) 0 (0) 0 (0) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Contracting¹ 324 640 158 490 479 83 568 1,137 1,985 2,271 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,857 3,232 417 1,151 1,879 2,067 1,121 1,951 2,596 2,212 1,411 1,289
Supply² 6,714 6,773 6,892 7,192 7,812 7,888 8,045 8,008 8,000 8,279 8,437 9,704 10,945 11,297 11,223 11,446 12,292 12,979 14,760 18,933 20,811 21,574 22,588 24,426 25,518 26,337 27,197 29,210 31,642
Δ y/y 2% 1% 2% 4% 9% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 28% 10% 4% 5% 8% 4% 3% 3% 7% 8%
Demand² 5,585 5,674 5,691 6,275 6,543 6,275 6,680 6,881 6,934 7,258 6,967 7,967 7,724 9,043 9,670 9,794 10,788 12,410 14,433 15,399 16,307 17,254 20,124 21,682 22,211 23,389 24,862 25,185 25,639
Δ y/y 2% 0% 10% 4% -4% 6% 3% 1% 5% -4% 14% -3% 17% 7% 1% 10% 15% 16% 7% 6% 6% 17% 8% 2% 5% 6% 1% 2%
Utilization² 83% 84% 83% 87% 84% 80% 83% 86% 87% 88% 83% 82% 71% 80% 86% 86% 88% 96% 98% 81% 78% 80% 89% 89% 87% 89% 91% 86% 81%
Spot rate² (USD/day) 23,855 24,974 22,264 34,860 28,495 16,688 23,358 31,102 33,076 37,347 23,031 24,797 6,482 18,333 32,937 32,890 39,437 77,070 88,508 22,859 14,990 18,326 46,009 40,266 34,791 41,185 51,680 32,262 19,429
VLGC value, 3y² (USDm) 53 55 57 54 65 96 105 92 83 71 67 73 71 73 88 83 65 60 59 69 69 70 78 78 68 64
Share index² 135 98 51 47 45 57 55 58 89 92 64 52
OB² 241 622 886 942 948 808 569 1,470 2,916 4,361 4,724 3,123 1,492 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,524 6,776 4,602 2,617 3,243 3,158 2,981 3,194 4,162 5,263 4,708 3,413
OB/Fleet² 4% 9% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 18% 36% 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 50% 46% 24% 13% 15% 14% 12% 13% 16% 19% 16% 11%
Low case 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Deliveries¹ 158 - 240 398 567 241 646 161 235 575 904 2,206 975 733 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,688 1,730 829 1,394 1,753 1,805 945 1,253 1,493 1,357
Scrapping¹ - - - - - (360) (372) (300) (76) (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (154) (391) - (96) (468) (627) (464) (75) (157)
Other¹ 0 - (0) (0) 0 0 0 (0) (76) (71) (0) (76) (80) 0 (0) 0 (0) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Contracting¹ 324 640 158 490 479 83 568 1,137 1,985 2,271 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,857 3,232 417 1,151 1,879 2,067 1,027 1,343 1,529 1,255 827 745
Supply² 6,714 6,773 6,892 7,192 7,812 7,888 8,045 8,008 8,000 8,279 8,437 9,704 10,945 11,297 11,223 11,446 12,292 12,979 14,760 18,933 20,811 21,574 22,588 24,426 25,518 26,326 26,875 28,071 29,416
Δ y/y 2% 1% 2% 4% 9% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 28% 10% 4% 5% 8% 4% 3% 2% 4% 5%
Demand² 5,585 5,674 5,691 6,275 6,543 6,275 6,680 6,881 6,934 7,258 6,967 7,967 7,724 9,043 9,670 9,794 10,788 12,410 14,433 15,399 16,307 17,254 20,124 21,546 21,521 22,095 22,900 22,618 22,449
Δ y/y 2% 0% 10% 4% -4% 6% 3% 1% 5% -4% 14% -3% 17% 7% 1% 10% 15% 16% 7% 6% 6% 17% 7% 0% 3% 4% -1% -1%
Utilization² 83% 84% 83% 87% 84% 80% 83% 86% 87% 88% 83% 82% 71% 80% 86% 86% 88% 96% 98% 81% 78% 80% 89% 88% 84% 84% 85% 81% 76%
Spot rate² (USD /day) 23,855 24,974 22,264 34,860 28,495 16,688 23,358 31,102 33,076 37,347 23,031 24,797 6,482 18,333 32,937 32,890 39,437 77,070 88,508 22,859 14,990 18,326 46,009 38,537 27,301 26,261 29,574 18,835 12,211
VLGC value, 3y² (USDm) 53 55 57 54 65 96 105 92 83 71 67 73 71 73 88 83 65 60 59 69 69 66 68 67 62 60
OB² 241 622 886 942 948 808 569 1,470 2,916 4,361 4,724 3,123 1,492 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,524 6,776 4,602 2,617 3,243 3,158 2,957 2,758 2,834 3,180 2,731 2,000
OB/Fleet² 4% 9% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 18% 36% 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 50% 46% 24% 13% 15% 14% 12% 11% 11% 12% 10% 7%
High case 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Deliveries¹ 158 - 240 398 567 241 646 161 235 575 904 2,206 975 733 244 162 1,073 669 2,935 3,688 1,730 829 1,394 1,753 1,805 1,052 2,478 4,055 3,906
Scrapping¹ - - - - - (360) (372) (300) (76) (157) (546) (453) (304) (461) (241) - - - - (161) (154) (391) - (96) (468) (627) (464) (75) (157)
Other¹ 0 - (0) (0) 0 0 0 (0) (76) (71) (0) (76) (80) 0 (0) 0 (0) - - - - - - - - - - - -
Contracting¹ 324 640 158 490 479 83 568 1,137 1,985 2,271 325 242 - 413 415 913 3,271 3,857 3,232 417 1,151 1,879 2,067 1,241 2,837 4,288 3,552 1,993 1,790
Supply² 6,714 6,773 6,892 7,192 7,812 7,888 8,045 8,008 8,000 8,279 8,437 9,704 10,945 11,297 11,223 11,446 12,292 12,979 14,760 18,933 20,811 21,574 22,588 24,426 25,518 26,352 27,637 30,910 35,009
Δ y/y 2% 1% 2% 4% 9% 1% 2% 0% 0% 3% 2% 15% 13% 3% -1% 2% 7% 6% 14% 28% 10% 4% 5% 8% 4% 3% 5% 12% 13%
Demand² 5,585 5,674 5,691 6,275 6,543 6,275 6,680 6,881 6,934 7,258 6,967 7,967 7,724 9,043 9,670 9,794 10,788 12,410 14,433 15,399 16,307 17,254 20,124 21,818 22,909 24,726 26,941 27,973 29,189
Δ y/y 2% 0% 10% 4% -4% 6% 3% 1% 5% -4% 14% -3% 17% 7% 1% 10% 15% 16% 7% 6% 6% 17% 8% 5% 8% 9% 4% 4%
Utilization² 83% 84% 83% 87% 84% 80% 83% 86% 87% 88% 83% 82% 71% 80% 86% 86% 88% 96% 98% 81% 78% 80% 89% 89% 90% 94% 97% 90% 83%
Spot rate² (USD /day) 23,855 24,974 22,264 34,860 28,495 16,688 23,358 31,102 33,076 37,347 23,031 24,797 6,482 18,333 32,937 32,890 39,437 77,070 88,508 22,859 14,990 18,326 46,009 42,330 44,356 64,198 86,245 47,563 24,261
VLGC value, 3y² (USDm) 53 55 57 54 65 96 105 92 83 71 67 73 71 73 88 83 65 60 59 69 70 76 94 93 74 67
OB² 241 622 886 942 948 808 569 1,470 2,916 4,361 4,724 3,123 1,492 807 1,006 1,454 2,490 6,524 6,776 4,602 2,617 3,243 3,158 3,011 3,800 6,164 8,442 7,449 4,958
OB/Fleet² 4% 9% 13% 13% 12% 10% 7% 18% 36% 53% 56% 32% 14% 7% 9% 13% 20% 50% 46% 24% 13% 15% 14% 12% 15% 23% 31% 24% 14%
¹Sum during period ²Average during period
 𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1

Implied q/q demand growth since 1997 Implied q/q demand growth since 1997
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5%
5%
0%
0%
-5% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
-5%
-10%
-10%
-15%
-15%
-20%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 -20%

VLGC spot rate seasonality since '92 (% vs Y

avg)
150%

100%

50%

0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
-50%

-100%

Range ('92-'13) Avg ('92-'13) 2018 2019

𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1
𝑓 λ = 𝑎0 + 𝛽1 𝜆𝜏 , 𝑅2 ≈ 1