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Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
Introduction
Universities have existed lectures and study online. This Future research will look
Key trends shaping the higher education sector
in some form for over a once in a generation event has to expand both the breadth
millennium. In that time, they accelerated certain trends that and depth of engagement, Hybrid teaching
have had to continuously were already emerging, and particularly in geographies such the move to enhance learning with digital methods and materials
evolve in response to external triggered a wholescale rethink of as Africa and South America.
events, from wars to plagues to what we really want from higher Net Zero
changing economic systems. education. Our research and interviews the increasing need to address the climate crisis
This ability to adapt is one of identified six key factors shaping
Resilience
their greatest strengths. This report aims to think the future of the higher education
developing capacity to withstand shocks and stresses
about how higher education is sector (right). We first look
Today, the higher education changing, and what this will at how these issues vary by Commercial pressures
sector is going through another mean for the design, operation geography, before delving into new commercial models to increase business resilience
period of significant change, and experience of universities each in greater detail.
with social, technological, in the coming decades, both in Campus operations
environmental and economic terms of the physical layout of better management of facilities
trends shaping how, what and campuses and buildings, but also The physical campus
where students learn. This report in terms of how education is how physical campuses and spaces will adapt
aims to elucidate these factors delivered.
and explore what they mean for
the future of universities and Arup has a strong network
tertiary education institutions. of partnerships with tertiary
institutions predominately in the
The most immediately UK, Europe, North America,
pressing factor is, of course, Australia, and Asia. We have
the COVID-19 pandemic, conducted interviews with
which has had a particularly experts at partner universities
profound impact. It caused worldwide to identify key issues
major disruptions to campus affecting higher education, and
activity, and transformed the learn how individual institutions
way students learn, pushing are addressing them.
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
© iStock
“shirking from home” was both
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
undesirable and unworkable. As a return to ‘normality’ came Key insights from Australia
Instead, a new culture of trust earlier to East Asia than most and New Zealand
and transparency has emerged parts of the world, universities To date, Australia and New
around digital education. New were able to open up sooner, Zealand have been successful
challenges have emerged, not enjoying strong demand for in limiting infection and death
least the increased risks in terms the on-campus experience, in rates of COVID-19 relative to
of cyber security. addition to the hybrid lectures other OECD counties. This has
experience. been achieved through closing
Key insights from East Asia borders early and enforcing
Asian universities were less The nature of East Asian cities is strict quarantine measures for all
severely impacted by COVID-19 an important factor. Apartments entering. The benefit of distance
than their counterparts are generally small, home from other parts of the world and
elsewhere. Governments in to multiple generations and being island nations has helped
these countries, having learned unlikely to contain dedicated with these actions.
lessons from the SARS outbreak office space – making it more
of 2002-2004, were able to enact desirable to return to campus. Strict international travel
measures with high compliance The density and co-location restrictions have had a significant
quickly and isolate themselves that universities depend on will impact on the arrival of
relatively well from COVID-19. need to be continually assessed international students resulting
and managed. The ongoing in disruption to academic
All major universities took operations of lecture theatres, programmes and major cash flow
measures to control access to offices and residences will need challenges for universities in this
campus and implemented early to remain agile, with processes region. Universities have had to
remote learning protocols. and protocols put in place to prove their resilience; adjusting
Local enrolments remained enable executive bodies to to an online learning model
relatively high, particularly from respond rapidly to the ongoing while proactively controlling
(mostly) local undergraduate dynamics of current and future capital spend and reducing
students. The bigger hit came to pandemics. operating costs. The situation
postgraduate programs due to the remains strained while borders
© Andy Wang, Unsplash
Hybrid teaching:
a blended offer
Hybrid teaching refers to a model where universities The way hybrid teaching looks professional-grade software and
provide part of their teaching in person on campus, will depend on the course, but hardware to provide engaging,
also on individual students’ enriching, useful, productive,
and part online via the internet. This trend was already and lecturers’ preferences. In a accessible and collaborative
emerging prior to the pandemic but was massively chemistry degree, for example, learning environments.
accelerated as countries went into lockdown. we can expect students to For instance, institutions
spend several hours each week such as the University of
in the laboratory performing Wollongong in Australia and
experiments. But it might be Harvard Business School in
common to offer theory lectures North America invested heavily
over a digital learning platform in high tech teaching spaces.
that students log into from home. Students were given multiple
Meanwhile, students on a history monitors, tracking devices
course might have the option of and touch screens to interact
either going to lectures in person with tutors and other students
or watching a live stream from remotely and have a professional
home, but are obliged to attend and polished experience. By
small seminars where ideas are furnishing students, lecture halls
discussed with peers. and seminar rooms with smart
technology, these universities
Before the pandemic, most are better able to deliver a truly
universities’ online learning hybrid experience that breaks
environments were fairly down the barriers between
limited, existing predominantly those in the room and those
as a kind of virtual library and connecting remotely. It also
What hybrid teaching will particularly younger students, factors are in providing choice,
mean for students according to an ethnographic convenience, and accessibility
For many students, the on- study carried out by University for all.
campus experience has College London (UCL). Being
been severely compromised on campus provides international Mature students, many of
throughout the pandemic, with a students developing skills whom juggle competing
sudden shift to remote learning in a second language, a very responsibilities, also benefit
and interaction. What will a important opportunity to do so, from the flexibility that remote
hybrid university experience through networking, interaction learning provides. Online
mean for students? and learning. Digital platforms lectures offer benefits from a
do not facilitate or encourage neurodiversity standpoint too.
In a hybrid future, face-to-face interaction in the same way that For example, students that dislike
engagement may be prioritised a face-to-face discussion can – physical proximity or who feel
for the more discursive, although this could improve as uncomfortable in crowded places
collaborative and practical technology advances over time. can attend lectures remotely in a
sessions in smaller groups Universities will need to be more comfortable environment
(e.g. seminars) and one-on- conscious of these issues when where they can focus without
one or two-on-one meetings planning courses. distraction and anxiety.
(e.g. tutorials). However, this
“concentrate at home, collaborate That being said, the digital Remote teaching modalities can
on campus” approach could well transition has offered a number easily facilitate the engagement
prove too simplistic. Digital of benefits. Lectures that are of a wider, more international
technology will only improve broadcast online give students pool of lecturers and presenters
online collaboration as it evolves. more control and flexibility. too, no longer space-bound to
What is more, many students Students watching live can a physical campus location.
will prefer studying in university still ask questions and interact Academics could even ‘call in’
libraries over cramped and noisy remotely. They can also drop from the field, to give students
student accommodation. in and out, pause or replay key an inspiring view of the most
passages. And it can be popular. cutting-edge research.
© The Lens, Kim Johnsen
Net Zero:
responding to the climate crisis
Many higher education institutions have declared a What does the climate crisis mean additional greenhouse gas
climate emergency, setting targets to reach ‘net zero’. for universities as they plan for the emissions.
future?
Some have put in place Climate Emergency executive Consideration also needs to be
boards with a remit to look at everything, from Perhaps most pressing is the topic given to the carbon savings or costs
capital projects and estate rationalisation, to resource of new construction on campus. that could accrue from the blended,
efficiency and procurement. The preparation, planning Capital works programmes hybrid model. At first sight, remote
typically feature an abundance of learning appears to promise lower
and execution of effective strategies is no small new buildings which will result emissions, since fewer people
challenge given the complexity involved. in significant greenhouse gas are on campus, and therefore
emissions being produced in their using less energy. However, we
development. Universities may have seen from the experience
reconsider their focus on building of many universities that energy
new developments and could loads and requirements persisted
instead look for options to improve despite having minimal people on-
their existing buildings through site during lockdowns. This is in
refurbishment, energy efficiency, some instances due to controlled
electrification and procurement of research environments needing to
renewable electricity. be maintained.
They will also need to think about Capital assets and infrastructure
how they are run. As part of day also continued to require powering
to day on-campus operations, regardless, to either maintain
universities procure extensive servers or to keep buildings secure
inventories of goods and services and habitable for a much smaller
One example of a university New approaches to campus - Build less University of Oxford
that is prioritising net zero construction Once a new build is deemed
is the National University of Many universities expect rising necessary, we must consider University of Nottingham
Singapore, which is taking great student numbers in the coming how we can build less while still
strides to become a sustainable, years (see following chapter), meeting the basic objectives of Nottingham Trent University
carbon neutral and ‘cool’ campus and many plan to expand their the planned asset. For instance,
by 2030. The university has footprint with new facilities. designing for multiple flexible University of California, Davis
set up taskforces to tackle the However, construction is a uses to maximise utilisation, or Umwelt-Campus Birkenfeld
sustainability challenge across major cause of carbon emissions reducing mass or materiality (Trier University of Applied Sciences)
water, energy, waste, and green and biodiversity loss, so how to reduce the accumulation
space. The use of integrated can universities address these of greenhouse gas emissions University of Groningen
natural ventilation and district One method is to reassess how - Build clever
University College Cork
cooling systems have been rolled universities approach new Once a new asset’s design has
out across the campus, especially construction using the following been optimised, embodied
Universita di Bologna
targeting ‘transient spaces’ such value hierarchy: carbon can be further reduced
as walkways. Green canopies are through clever design strategies.
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
also being developed to promote - Build nothing When designing, we must
microclimates around buildings Before we explore reducing ask: can low carbon design Greenmetric score
and public spaces. For instance, greenhouse gas emissions in considerations, materials,
Setting & infrastructure Energy & climate change Waste
the University has committed design and construction, it technologies, and products
to plant 10,000 trees per year, is essential that universities be used to minimise resource Water Transport Education & research
with planting events becoming first re-examine the need to consumption and greenhouse gas
an opportunity for students to build anything new at all. emissions during the lifecycle
socialise. Reusing or repurposing existing stages of the asset? Top 10 most sustainable
superstructure and materials universities globally
saves resources, saves cost, - Build efficiently According to the UI GreenMetric World
and saves carbon. However, The final step in reducing University Rankings 2020
refurbishment often involves a embodied carbon associated with
complex reworking of existing new construction is to improve
structures and services. efficiency using low carbon
construction technologies and
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
techniques. Active measures are flat, and use the savings made
those which seek to improve through efficiency gains to
the efficiency of mechanical invest in further energy-saving
cooling, heating, ventilation and mechanisms.
lighting. District heating and/or
district cooling can be applied Meanwhile Arup’s masterplan
across campuses. The move to for Cyprus International
passive design where possible University provides a fully
– using a building’s layout, automated, naturally ventilated
fabric and form to reduce or building. The building is also
remove the need for mechanical self-sufficient from an energy
cooling, heating, ventilation and point of view with a large-
lighting demand – offers massive scale solar farm built in tandem
opportunity. with the development. Other
initiatives include a biogas plant
While they come with an to collect waste from local dairy
inevitable carbon cost, new and poultry farms and waste
buildings can and must redirected from landfill. The
achieve the best standards output will be heat, electricity
of sustainability (including and fertiliser, demonstrating the
international standards such as range of energy options available
BREAM, LEED, Green Star to a campus operator.
and WELL). Existing assets
can be made more efficient, and
it is worth considering novel
approaches to funding and
financing.
“While they come with an
For example, University of
inevitable carbon cost, new
Oxford is investing in energy buildings can and must
© Arup
Resilience:
looking to the future
As the past year has shown, unexpected and As the past year has shown, Preparing for robust demand
challenging events can prove highly disruptive to unexpected and challenging Global demand for higher
events can prove highly education is predicted to increase
universities. Institutions can benefit by developing disruptive to universities. from 160 million students in
plans and protocols for various threats and risks Institutions can benefit by 2015 to over 414 million by
which could arise at any time. developing plans and protocols 2030, according to UNESCO,
for various threats and risks driven by growth in middle
which could arise at any time. classes in developing countries
across Asia, Latin America
Future threats to universities and Africa. And in developed
include extreme weather events, countries, demand for education
cyber-attacks and civil unrest, will remain high. For example,
will impact operations in regional community colleges
geographies and regions globally across the United States are
to differing levels. seeing an uptake in student
enrolment as the current financial
How universities bolster recession places increasing
resilience in a world that is pressure on wages.
volatile and unpredictable is a
key question that will need to The growing demand for higher
be considered by leaders and education represents a significant
decision makers. At the same opportunity for higher education
time, they need to develop institutions. We are already
resilience plans for slower seeing academia, employers,
moving trends, such as climate and industry “unbundling”
Siemens that launched in This is especially true given Other even more radical
Guangzhou in late 2018. the seismic changes seen propositions see blockchain
Siemens sends teachers from its over the past year. Some of and other transactional digital
technical academy in Berlin to our interviewees predict a services as a way to ‘tokenise’
train Chinese teachers, with a transformational near-term a student’s education, whereby
focus on smart manufacturing. shift in pedagogy towards a individuals or institutions “buy
The company also offers students subscription model of education into” a student’s education and
internships and job opportunities. which offers enrolment akin to receive a small portion of their
The two institutions will also membership. Instead of making income across their lifetime.
work together to establish an a large upfront investment for Rather than having to prove the
innovation and entrepreneurship three or four years of education creditworthiness of a student,
programme, as well as training during one’s late teenage years, their prospects and attainment
for the World Skills Competition, a student could instead pay a would define their value as an
a world championship relatively modest monthly fee investment.
of vocational skills. to retain access to in-person and
virtual instruction for as long as
A subscription model they like.
Online education providers have
not yet revolutionised higher The logic that underpins this
education, as was routinely innovative model is that an
forecast at the start of the 2010s. individual’s educational needs
Nevertheless, providers such as evolve across their lives and
Coursera have carved out a niche careers. Such an approach could
offering in the market, mostly be adapted to suit one’s specific
by providing business-focused needs over time. Moreover,
classes to older students. Once this model affords the higher
again, universities will need education provider with a steady,
to respond to this potentially continual revenue stream.
Commercial pressures
All educational institutions were negatively impacted While many governments role in shaping future demand
by the pandemic and had to compensate for losses provided short-term support, over the short-to medium-term.
long-term cuts in government For example, UK universities
and unplanned expenditure by drawing from reserves, funding reinforces the need for have found it harder to attract
especially in countries where university education universities to diversify revenue students from the European
is privatised. Institutions that entered the pandemic streams beyond student fees. continent, now that the UK has
in a weak financial position could face significant left the European Union.
How are universities responding The disproportionate reliance
economic challenges or insolvency. to these commercial pressures? on any one demographic or
international cohort can be risky,
International fees especially in light of the ongoing
For many universities pandemic. Some universities
worldwide, international students are reviewing their international
contribute disproportionately to student intake to ensure that
university income. The higher dependence on these students is
fees they pay help to fund capital reasonable and doesn’t leave the
works and research budgets university overly vulnerable to
aimed at improving university disruption in their numbers.
rankings. These resulting higher
rankings in turn help to attract State support
more international students. In the aftermath of disasters,
wars and pandemics, there
However, while the pandemic is historically more taste
persists, international travel will for state involvement in
continue to be restricted and various parts of society,
US$36bn
Recovery and Resilience programs. Instead universities
Plan. This includes significant are the place where innovation
dedicated funding in support happens and partnerships are key of emergency grants has
of upskilling and reskilling to bringing ideas to market. been announced for post-
aimed at equipping workers secondary education under the
whose jobs are redundant, An example can be seen in the American Rescue Plan Act
© ThisisEngineering RAEng, Unsplash
50%
Skills Action programme. outs’, operationalising nascent
ideas in the real world. The
Bio-Escalator is associated with of this funding is to be used
Oxford’s medical campus, and by each institution to provide
is about to build a new 6000m2 direct relief to students
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
Although a wide range of social and physical More remote working should Continued consolidation of
distancing interventions will likely remain, the help to free up space to be physical space across university
repurposed for other uses. Some campuses is likely. Departments
physical campus has an important role to play supporting departments and will begin to share common
in bringing people back together. This is clearly administrative staff groups (e.g. spaces rather than custom-
demonstrated in the transformation of Macquarie IT support) could continue with building unique spaces per
University where the new central courtyard has a degree of remote and flexible discipline. Moreover, campus
working. planners and designers can
visibly become the campus heart, a space that is anticipate an increased emphasis
activated, alive with the buzz from students, visitors In the case of practical or on the flexibility and adaptability
and all campus users. vocational degree subjects, of space.
students and faculty will
continue to need access to Another issue could be
research facilities and specialist ‘vaccination passports’
equipment (for example, which would define access
laboratories for medical students to certain spaces. But these
or model-making studios for are problematic, due to the
architecture students). Cutting- discrimination inherent in
edge digital tools such as 3D mandating vaccines in return
printing or immersive virtual for access, and the associated
reality require expensive setups, administrative and operational
meaning that collective use in costs necessary to enforce
Macquarie University
Sydney, Australia
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
© William Murphy
University of Hong Kong peer collaboration, informal
undertook an initiative to study socialising, side meetings and our awareness of the benefits of
a year without public space one-to-one discussions.
with the COVID-19 pandemic. time spent outside, in the fresh
The study highlighted the
need to build social and health air and in contact with nature.” University of Maynooth
Maynooth, Republic of Ireland
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
Key characteristics
of the future campus
quiet spaces
on-site renewable energy
physical collaborative
creative space
access to green space
Conclusion
As with most other sectors of Universities’ reputations will All transformational change
the economy, many aspects of continue to rest on the quality comes with a degree of
university life will have changed of the student experience, resistance, anxiety and friction.
permanently in the aftermath of wider academic performance University leadership will
the pandemic. and increasingly, factors such need to manage the cultural
as sustainability. Institutions change required to bed in new
Perhaps most significantly, the that invest in sustainability will behaviours around hybrid
emergence of hybrid learning attract a generation of students learning and the technological
will become deeply entwined that is especially conscious of transition.
with how universities operate. the risks of climate change.
Expanded remote learning Now is an opportune moment to Our aim in producing this report
and assessment, appear very reconsider capital investment, is to help summarise the state of
likely to stay. Universities will mobility strategies and energy the higher education sector and
increase their provision of online procurement. to share insights and strategies
learning environments and offer being tested in universities
students more software for video We can expect a shift in who around the world. This report
calls, collaboration and group students are, where they are looks to start a conversation
work. They will also invest in from, and what they expect from about how higher education
more hardware, from digital education too. Universities will campuses can be resilient to
whiteboards to high quality need to adjust to these shifts and future change and act as a source
cameras to new meeting rooms. find ways to provide education of knowledge for those seeking
That said, many kinds of learning that truly responds to people’s to take fullest advantage of
will still require dedicated spaces expectations – be that lifelong coming opportunities.
and capacity to flourish. These learning or more vocational
may need to be redesigned for training.
Appendix
The United Nations’ Sustainable the profound challenges that the University Belfast is looking library services and quiet spaces SDG 15 Life on land:
Development Goals world is facing. Academics need at mission-based activities to for those who don’t want to come In every built development
The focus on climate action as to think more entrepreneurially in address the learning deficit; and into campuses that serve a wider universities deliver, and the
an urgent priority should not all their activities to leverage new Oxford University has education community). The University of grounds they maintain, there is
eclipse the imperative to address opportunities. As the pandemic programmes for school children Queensland (UQ) has a “sticky an opportunity to embrace design
wider sustainability challenges response has shown, institutions and an initiative in place that twins campus” strategy where local that is regenerative in its impact
in parallel. Looking at the three can work more closely together colleges with primary schools. communities are encouraged on the natural environment.
pillars of sustainability together than ever before through research to engage in campus activities Preserving diverse forms of life
– environmental, societal, and and innovation ecosystems that SDG 11 Sustainable cities in order to activate the campus on land requires targeted efforts
economic - the United Nations’ span the whole globe. and communities: and engage students and others. to protect, restore and promote
17 Sustainable Development There are a number of other There has always been a strong UQ has an emphasis on physical the conservation and sustainable
Goals and their 169 targets are key goals that speak directly civic link between universities and activity on campus to promote occupation of ecosystems.
designed to end global poverty, to the role of universities in the communities that host them. health and wellbeing for all. Regenerative design and
stop environmental destruction society and how they can focus Covid has seen these linkages design for biodiversity are key
and improve human health and their development in the 21st strengthen in many cases. For SDG 9 Industry, innovation approaches for universities who
well-being by 2030. century to delivery positive and example, universities working and infrastructure: campuses have significant land
intersectional change: with healthcare providers to run Precedents exist where holdings.
SDG 4 aims towards inclusive vaccination centres on campus. universities successfully deliver
and equitable quality education SDG 10 Reduce inequalities: Many universities have porous not just their core business, The Times Higher Education
and to promote lifelong learning Diversity and multicultural borders, allowing the public access but also help to develop their Impact Rankings
opportunities for all. For the experiences offer opportunities to grounds and facilities such surrounding communities. The Times Higher Education
UN, much of this relates to the for all. A merit-based admissions as theatres and gallery spaces. Newcastle University’s Impact Rankings measure
removal of barriers to primary system makes it hard for Significant space is becoming Margaret’s Technology Centre universities against the SDGs to
education in the developing universities to attract the best available in different urban supports skills development in provide comparison of university
world. Worldwide, partnership talent from more deprived contexts. This off the back of the the community. Likewise, the performance across four broad
working and action through communities while scholarships decline in retail and reconsidered University of Nottingham is areas: research, stewardship,
mutually beneficial university- are costly. Universities are office use post-pandemic. This supporting a new centre called outreach and teaching.
industry-civil society-government working with the secondary presents an opportunity for campus Digital Nottingham to develop https://www.timeshigher
collaboration has a pivotal role school system to help raise universities to gain or further new technology skills to aid the education.com/rankings/
to play in addressing many of standards. For example, Queens develop a city-centre presence (e.g. region’s recovery post-Covid. impact/2021/overall
Introduction Hybrid teaching Net zero Resilience Commercial pressures Campus operations The physical campus Conclusion
With thanks
Contacts
Finola Reid
Education Lead, Australasia
e: education@arup.com
www.arup.com