India Home Energy Storage Market Potential

Dr. Rahul Walawalkar

President, India Energy Storage Alliance
Chair, Global Energy Storage Alliance
President & MD, Customized Energy Solutions (India)
 CUSTOMIZED ENERGY SOLUTIONS

PROVIDING ENERGY MANAGEMENT SOLUTIONS SINCE 1998

Our consulting services enables competitive suppliers, technology providers, marketers, utilities and customers to prosper through change, by
turning knowledge into value

1998
PHILADELPHIA ESTABLISHMENT

10,000+ MW 500+
ASSET MANAGEMENT CLIENTS WORLDWIDE

250+ MW
STORAGE ASSET
MANAGEMENT 11 TIMES HONOREE
2014 & 2016
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Over 175 Associates across 9 Regional offices in United States, Canada, India, Japan & Mexico. We support clients in all US 7 ISOs and RTO’s
 The Indian Grid
YOY Growth of Various Fuel Capacity in Gen Mix – India – 2010-2020
40.00% 14.00%

Nuclear Lignite Diesel

2.00% 2.00% 0.10% 13.02%
30.00% 12.00%

Gas
11.19%
6.99% 10.89%
20.00% 10.00%
9.96%
Hydro

GROWTH PER YEAR FUEL WISE (%)

9.30%
11.99% 9.04%
10.00% 8.00%

366 GW Coal
7.59%

53.95%
0.00% 6.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Renewables 5.58%
22.98%
4.72%
-10.00% 4.00%

-20.00% 2.00%

-30.00% 0.00%

Coal. Gas. Diesel. Nuclear. Hydro. Renewables. Total Gen Capacity

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 Expected India Net Load Curve 2022
(with 100 GW of Solar Generation)

Original projections by POSOCO for 20 GW solar target

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 WHY ENERGY STORAGE?

Grid Variability Grid Inertia RE Curtailments

Solution
Ramping Rates Energy DSM Penalties
Storage

EV Dynamics Strict Regulations T&D Upgrades

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 The Evolving Policy Framework for Adoption of Energy Storage

2013: 2014 Dec 2014 Oct 2015

MOP and CEA taskforce Creation of MNRE IESA releases report on CERC issues Ancillary
on Integration of Large Standing Committee the role of energy Services Operations
Scale renewables in on Energy Storage to storage for providing Regulation (August
India develop Energy ancillary services in 2015) and Roadmap to
Storage Roadmap India operationalize Reserves
in the country

Mar 2019
May 2018 Jan 2019 National Energy
Jan 2017 MNRE National CERC & CEA Storage Mission and
CERC Staff Paper on Wind Solar Hybrid Regulations National Mission for
ESS Policy inclusion of Storage Transformative
Mobility

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 TECHNOLOGY SPECTRUM: ENERGY V/S POWER DENSITY
PUMPED HYDRO

HYDROGEN FUEL CELL COMPRESSED AIR

ENERGY STORAGE
Li-Ion
FLOW BATTERY CRYOGENIC ENERGY STORAGE
SODIUM SULPHUR BATTERY

LITHIUM ION BATTERIES

LEAD ACID BATTERIES
HIGH ENERGY
SUPERCAPACITORS ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERY

NICKEL CADMIUM BATTERY

NICKEL METAL HYDRIDE BATTERY

FLYWWHEELS

SUPER CONDUCTING
HIGH POWER SUPERCAPACITORS MAGNET

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 Lithium Ion Batteries – Cell Level Price Trend

400 900

790 350
800

700
Annual Production Capacity (GWh)

300 650

Lithium Ion Cell Pric ($/kWh)

600

460 500
200
200
370 400

280
300
225
100 180
200
73 150
135
53
35 103 100
18 23
15

0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Annual Production Capacity. (GWh) Lithium Ion Cell Price. ($/kWh)

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Cost Reduction is not the ONLY parameter to drive growth
 Blended Cost Trend | Roof Top Solar + Storage | 2020 - 2027
Blended Cost Trend | Rooftop Solar + Storage (50%) - 1 &
4 Hour | 2020 - 2027
10.0

8.0
Blended Cost (INR/kWh)

6.0

4.0

2.0

*Assuming 50% Storage Penetration

0.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

1 Hour 4 Hour

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 India Market Outlook 2020-27

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 EVOLVING ATTRACTIVENESS – INDIAN MARKET

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 INDIA STATIONARY ENERGY STORAGE MARKET 2019- 2027
India Stationary Energy Storage Market, 2019 and 2027 Modest market growth is projected in the worst case scenario when
60 delayed projects in grid scale segment, impact of COVID-19 and
Annual Installation (GWh)

50 improving grid reliability are projected to result in slow growth at

CAGR of 2% between 2019-2027.
40

30 In base case scenario, the supportive policy framework, MNRE

targets and ongoing project trends are considered to estimate a
20 more robust market growth at CAGR 8% for 2019- 2027.
10 To achieve the best case scenario, more supportive policies, higher
penetration rate of storage in grid scale projects, storage in
0
Year providing ancillary services to grid, in distribution grid and in the
2019 2027
Worst case Base Case Best Case presently unconventional Behind-the-meter applications such as for
Diesel optimization, rooftop etc are to pick up for the market to
achieve CAGR of 14% for 2019-2027.
Cumulative Total Energy Storage Market Potential, India,
Storage Market Battery Technology Split,2019
350 2019-2027
Li ion
Cumulative Installation (Gwh)

300 4%
250
200
150
Flooded LA
VRLA
100 52%
44%
50
0
Worst Base Best

Grid Scale BTM Railways

Source: CES analysis

 CURRENT ROOFTOP SOLAR (RTS) PV SCENARIO

• Driven by an impressive y-o-y growth rate of 67%, cumulative rooftop solar Current Rooftop Solar Distribution
(5.7GW Cumulative) 2019, India
installations have reached a capacity of 5.7 GW till December 2019. In
2019 alone (from Jan 19 to December 19), rooftop solar installations were
close to 1.8 GW. 12%

• The commercial, public & industrial sector is likely to maintain 80-90% of

the market share going forward. OPEX or RESCO model is being looked at 18%
as an attractive proposition both for project developers and PE investors.

• Residential customers have thus far faced operational and financial

challenges in installing rooftop solar (RTS) system. Government's recent 70%
announcement of Phase II of Grid Connected Rooftop Solar Program with
total financial assistance of INR 11,814 crore (US $ 1,687 Million) is likely to
alleviate some of these concerns and increase residential participation. Industrial & Governmental
Commercial
Residential
Source: Relevant Govt. data and CES Analysis
MICROGRID INITIATIVE FOR CAMPUS &
RURAL OPPORTUNITIES (MICRO)

15
 ENERGY STORAGE POTENTIAL IN MICROGRIDS
BATTERY CHEMISTRY SPLIT IN MICROGRID
India Microgrid Projects and Companies, 2019 MARKET, INDIA, 2019

Battery Size Lead acid Lithium ion

Units Range of
Institution Range per 1%
added in Size of
Names system(kW
2019 microgrids
h)
Rural
Electrification 99%
Corporation (REC)
and Pvt Players
~90 30 kWp 80
such as Onergy
Solar, Husk Power, Continued use of Lead acid batteries: Lack of funding and infrastructure
OMC Power, Tara
support are the main reasons why lead acid batteries are still the preferred
option.
Oorja
Panasonic and
4 250Wp-3kWp 8
BYPL
• Key locations of microgrids in 2019: Jammu & Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, ,
Global Himalayan ~150 small Bihar, Jharkhand, Maharashtra.
1-2 kW 0.5
Expedition grids • Key microgrid Players: Global Himalayan Expedition, Gram Oorja, Tara
Oorja, Husk Power, Onergy, Mlinda, Panasonic and BYPL
MLinda 10 30 kW 80 • Battery Suppliers: Exide, Amara Raja, Southern Batteries , Ecoult
• Battery Types: VRLA and flooded lead acid batteries are mainly installed
Batteries for Microgrids accounted for just 8MWh in 2019. in AC and DC Microgrids. In 2019, few companies in the smaller scale in
Sources: CES Analysis, Primary Input remote areas are branching into Lithium ion batteries
*Figures are approximate
*Defense microgrids are not included in this report
Global Experience of Home
Energy Storage Systems

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 ESS Ecosystem Map

IPPs/Project Developers PCS Suppliers/ SI

Metal Air Thermal Energy Storage Chemical (Hydrogen) Storage Pumped Hydro Storage

Compressed Air Sodium Flywheel Flow Batteries

Lithium Ion Batteries Lead Acid Batteries

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Source: Tesla
Many options are available for consumers
 Typical configuration of Home Energy Storage
System with PV

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 Modern Smart Home Configuration

Source: Sonnen

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Closing remarks
• PV growth and improvements in energy storage technologies are
expected to drive to growth of the home energy storage systems
around the globe
• In India the behind the meter market will be driven by C&I segment, but
also rooftop solar + ESS can penetrate residential market beyond 2023
with shift away from net metering regulations.
• Safety and certifications are a critical factor that needs to be
considered
• Growth of EVs and introduction of bidirectional – chargers can also
provide mobile home storage option
• There is lots of opportunity for innovation and localization considering
domestic requirements
• Policy support for home systems also needs to evolve, particularly
introduction of demand response programs

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Presented By: Dr Rahul Walawalkar

Designation: President IESA & MD CES
Mail: rahul@ces-ltd.com

Contact us:
India Energy Storage Alliance
C/o Customized Energy Solutions
A-501, GO Square, Aundh
Hinjewadi Link Road, Wakad
Pune -411057, Maharashtra, India
Phone: 91-20-32407682
Mail: contact@indiaesa.info
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