Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Academic and Research Vice-rector

Activities guide and evaluation rubric
Phase 4 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 2

1. General description of the course

Faculty or Academic School of Basic Sciences, Technology and

Unit Engineering
Academic Level Professional
Academic Field Disciplinary training
Course Name Theory of decisions
Course Code 212066
Course Type Theoretical Can be ye ☒ N ☐
enable s o
d
Number of Credits 3

2. Description of the activity

Type of the Number of

Individual ☒ Collaborative ☒ 3
activity: weeks
Moment of Unit
Initial ☐ ☒ Final ☐
evaluation: Intermediate:
Evaluative score of the Delivery Environment of the activity:
activity: 75 points Collaborative learning
Starting date of the activity: Deadline of the activity: Thursday,
Friday, October 4, 2019 October 24, 2019
Competence to develop:

The student uses in real situations, the criteria of uncertainty and the theory
of games in the decision making that guarantees the development and
continuity of a decision process.
Topics to develop:

Unit 2. Decisions in an environment of uncertainty

4. Criteria of Laplace, Minimal, Savage and Hurwicz

5. Game Theory
6. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Steps, phases of the learning strategy to develop

The student must individually develop each of the exercises outlined as

follows:

Step 1. In Exercises 1 to 3, the student must solve by the criteria Laplace,

Wald or pessimist, optimist, Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix the proposed
questions.) These concepts take into account probabilities and states that are
influenced by learning environments. uncertainty, so it is recommended that
you identify these variables very well because daily life is full of them for
decision making.
Note: Collaborative activities must be developed individually to meet all the
Exercises solved, the team discusses, corrects, consolidates and presents the
contributions of all the participants in the activity. To divide among the
members of the collaborative groups the proposed Exercises is not a
methodology of the course, as the qualification will be done according to the
contributions presented individually.

Step 2. In Exercises 4 to 6, the student must solve the questions raised by

game theory, remember that the goal of game theory is to present decision
alternatives where it assumes that in a fair game what a player wins his
opponent must lose exactly and vice versa, hence it is important to generate
solutions that satisfy this condition of justice in the game, to call it in some
way.

Step 3. Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented
for the use of the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the
proposed activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final
collaborative work, the income and results table for the Exercises raised. In
this same space you can carefully review the Guide for the use of educational
resources.

Step 4. Consolidation of the final work and rise in the Evaluation and
Monitoring Environment.

Activities to develop

Next, you will find 6 exercises that make up phase 4, these should be
developed individually. As a collaborative activity in addition to the
discussion, correction, consolidation of the final work, is the use of the online
tool that is available in the practical learning environment to check results of
manual and online methods of the Exercises raised.

Exercise 1. Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic, Hurwicz and

Savage criteria (Profit Matrix):

To develop the exercise 1 to 3, it is necessary to consult the following

reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 341-

347), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in
the knowledge environment of the course.

In the company ABC several alternatives are presented to choose the best
technology of four possible, whose performance depends on the adaptation
of the workers who will manipulate the equipments that comprise it. The
expected benefits of each alternative and degree of adaptation of the
workers are given in the table, in millions of pesos ($). For Hurwicz please
assume an alpha of 0,7.
According to Table 1 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,
optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.

Exercise 2. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic,

Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the
USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in
the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but
is expected to fall into one of five categories: 610, 630, 680, 715 and 730
crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviation from the
number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either due to
excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below
shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an
alpha of 0,75.

According to Table 2 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,

optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.

Exercise 3. Criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic, optimistic,

Hurwicz and Savage (Cost matrix):

A warehouse of finished products that leases its services to imports from the
USA, must plan its level of supply to satisfy the demand of its customers in
the day of love and friendship. The exact number of crates is not known, but
is expected to fall into one of five categories: 580, 720, 750, 790 and 830
crates. There are therefore four levels of supply. The deviation from the
number of hoppers is expected to result in additional costs, either due to
excessive supplies or because demand can not be met. The table below
shows the costs in hundreds of dollars (US $). For Hurwicz please assume an
alpha of 0,55.

According to Table 3 by applying the criteria of Laplace, Wald or pessimistic,

optimistic criteria, Hurwicz and Savage determine the optimal decision level
according to the benefit criteria.

Exercise 4. Game Theory method:

To develop the exercise 4 to 5, it is necessary to consult the following

reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 383-

391), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in
the knowledge environment of the course.

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the
players has only two strategies. Consider the following 2 x n game:

Player 2
Strategy
A B C
Player I 27 33 38
1 II 19 25 31

According to Table 4 find the value of the game by means of the graphical
method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.

Exercise 5. Game Theory method:

Graphical solutions are only applicable to games in which at least one of the
players has only two strategies. Consider the following game m x 2:

Player 2
Strategy
A B
I 27 35
Player 1 II 31 35
II 33 37

According to Table 5, find the value of the game by means of the graphical
method applied to matrices 2 x n or m x 2.
Exercise 6. Optimum solution of two-person games (Theory of
games, mixed strategies):

To develop the exercise 6, it is necessary to consult the following reference:

Sharma, J. (2016). Operations Research : Theory and Applications. (pp. 383-

391), New Delhi: Laxmi Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition. Available in
the knowledge environment of the course.

The games represent the latest case of lack of information where intelligent
opponents are working in a conflicting environment. The result is that a very
conservative criterion is generally proposed to solve sets of two people and
sum zero, called minimax - maximin criterion. To determine a fair game, the
minimax = maximin, it is necessary to solve the stable strategy through the
Solver.

PLAYER B
81 83 81 80 91
PLAYER A

84 83 86 86 82
82 78 86 89 84
87 87 91 89 88
83 85 35 88 81

Solve the game of players A and B to determine the value of the game, using
the proposed Excel tool, according to the data in table 6.

Exercise 7. Use of the practical learning environment. Collaborative

activity

Enter the Practical Environment, in this space videos are presented for the
use of the Excel Solver Plug-in and practical tutorials to develop the proposed
activities, remember to attach screenshots to your final collaborative work,
the income and results table for the Exercises raised. In this same space you
can carefully review the Guide for the use of educational resources.

The group leader must upload to the Evaluation and Monitoring Environment
a single file in PDF format consolidating the contributions of all the
participants in the space named phase 4. Unit 2.

Environment
Collaborative learning environment - Evaluation and
for the
monitoring environment
development
Products to Individual: The student must leave evidence in the forum
deliver by of the activity, the development and solution of each of the
student proposed exercises.

Feedback of the contributions of their peers.

Collaborative:

The working group should demonstrate the use of the

resource provided in the practical learning environment and
 upload the screenshots in the final report.

At the end of the resolution of the exercises, a document

must be submitted in pdf format, with the following
specifications:

Expected Product: PDF file marked with its Working

Group_212066_TC2, in letter Arial 12 and APA standards,
with the following content:

Page 1. Cover with the members who participated actively

in the consolidation and generation of collaborative work.
Page 2. Introduction.
Page 3 and successive. Exercises solved according to the
proposed theme.
Following pages. Screen shots solution exercises with the
recourse online that performed in the practical learning
environment.
Final page. Bibliography according to APA standards that
supports the solution of Exercises.

3. General guidelines for the collaborative work

Distance learning and in virtual learning

environments requires a solid planning process
against suggested activities for students. In this
sense, when working on elements that require the
joint participation of the members of the group, the
need arises to articulate the learning strategy based
on Problems SBP and to direct it to facilitate the
process of student training. This approach
emphasizes self-learning and self-training, which are
facilitated by the dynamics of the approach and its
Planning of
eclectic constructivist conception.
activities for the
development of
In the ABP approach, cognitive autonomy is
collaborative work
fostered, taught and learned from problems that
have meaning for students, error is used as an
opportunity to learn rather than punish and an
important value is given to the self-evaluation and
formative, qualitative and individualized evaluation.
The resources needed to solve the problems are in
the Knowledge Environment. Whenever you have
considered these aspects you can then begin to
develop the phases corresponding to the individual
and collaborative work of the course.
Roles to perform by Recognition of actors as subjects:
the student in the
collaborative group The students at the beginning of the course, in the
space destined to do so, will be recognized as
participants of a collaborative group, they will be
able to present their strengths to the service of the
group and they will define the channels of
communication (contact data, institutional and
personal email address, skype , social networking
links.) of which will be available to interact
effectively and proactively.

Planning of academic activities:

According to the elements that make up the

principle of responsible action, students must design
a work plan based on the analytical reflection of the
activity agenda, the evaluation plan, the guides and
rubrics given for the development of each academic
activity . They will also design a proposal for the
planning of their collaborative work that responds to
the particularities and needs of the learning strategy
and mobilizes the work to be developed.

Staging of the principles of collaborative work:

It is important that students internalize each of the

principles of collaborative work and implement them
from the beginning of the academic year and
thereby ensure excellence in their learning processes
and the presentation of academic products that
meet the expected quality in the course.

Principle of Interaction. In the perspective of the

student, this principle materializes when defining the
ways and mechanisms that will enable interaction in
collaborative work. The intention is for students to
participate in the different spaces of Collaborative
Work and the general forum of the Initial
Environment to allow efficient interaction between
them.

Principle of growth. Each student can contribute

to the process of the other peers. From this idea, in
the same scenario where interactions occur,
students can contribute to others in terms of
suggesting greater participation to those who do not
intervene frequently, offering information search
strategies, proposing technological resources that
support the process being carried out, among others
that allow the team to advance and that each one
can strengthen its formative process.

Principle of Responsible Action. Students should

organize their work to achieve the goals set. It is
important that each one assumes actions in the
development of the work that contribute in the
achievement of good results of the equipment. The
aim is to ensure that the organization of
 responsibilities, the definition of roadmaps in the
development of work and the coordination of
individual efforts, allow a successful collaborative
exercise. It is also important to consider aspects of
evaluation in the student's exercise, through the
following scenarios:

Self-evaluation and Co-evaluation. It is the

process in which the student, through an instrument
designed (Survey) recognizes and presents its
strengths and difficulties in the development of
collaborative work. A score has not been assigned
on this process, but it is a formative activity that
allows the student to identify the aspects that allow
him / her to progress in his / her formative process
based on the difficulties identified during the
development of the activities, their individual
participation and their interaction with the group.
Compiler: Consolidate the document that
constitutes the final product of the debate, taking
into account that the contributions of all the
participants have been included and that only the
participants who participated in the process are
included. You must inform the person in charge of
the alerts to warn those who did not participate, that
they will not be included in the product to be
delivered.

Reviewer: Ensure that the writing complies with the

rules of submission of work required by the teacher.
Roles and
responsibility for
Evaluator: Ensure that the document contains the
the delivery of
criteria present in the rubric. You must inform the
products by
person in charge of the alerts so that you inform the
students
other members of the team in case any adjustments
need to be made on the subject.
Deliveries: Alert on the delivery times of the
products and send the document in the stipulated
times, using the resources destined for the
shipment, and indicate to the other partners that the
delivery has been made.

Alerts: Ensure that the members of the group are

notified of new developments and inform the teacher
through the work forum and messaging of the
course, which has been sent the document.
Use of references Use of the APA standard, version 3 in Spanish
(Translation of version 6 in English).

The APA Standards is the style of organization and

presentation of information most used in the area of
social sciences. These are published under a Manual
that allows you to have access to the ways in which
 a scientific article should be presented. Here you can
find the most relevant aspects of the sixth edition of
the APA Standards Manual, such as references,
citations, preparation and presentation of tables and
figures, headings and seriation, among others.

You can check how to implement them by going to

http://normasapa.com/

In the agreement 029 of December 13, 2013, article

99, the mistakes that infringe upon the academic
order, among others, are the following: paragraph
e) “To plagiarize is to present as your own work the
whole or part of a writing, report, task or document
of invention performed by another person. It also
implies the use of cites or lack of references, or
includes cites where there is no coincidence between
them and the reference” and paragraph f)”To
reproduce, or copy for profit, educational resources
or results of research products, which have
Plagiarism policy intellectual rights reserved for the University”.

The academic punishments that the student will face

are:

a. In case of academic fraud proved in the

academic work or evaluation, the score
achieved will be zero (0.0) without leading to
disciplinary measures.
b. In case of plagiarism proved in the academic
work of any nature, the score achieved will be
zero (0.0), without leading to disciplinary
measures.
 4. Evaluation rubric
Rubric evaluation format
Phase 4 - Solve problems by applying the algorithms of Unit 2
Type of activity Individual activity X Collaborative activity X

Moment of Intermediate, unit 2 X Fina

Initial
Evaluation l
Performance Criteria for Individual Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated
The student The student Participation in the
participated participated in the effective elaboration
Individual actively and forum, but his of the work is
student effectively in the contributions are limited, so the
participation in elaboration of the fairly effective in achievement of the 8
the forum requested the creation of the objectives is
product. final product. inadequate.
Until 8 points Until 4 points Until 0 points
The objectives of Although the
Use of criterion the work were subject matter is
of Laplace, satisfactorily treated, the body of The document
Wald, etc. in fulfilled, the the document does leaves unresolved
real situations Criterions of not adequately the Criterions of
that require Laplace, Wald, solve the situation, Laplace, Wald, etc.,
decision- etc. are solved the conclusions are for which the 15
making correctly and the not pertinent optimality decisions
analysis of their according to the are left
processes in
results leads to results obtained by unanswered.
the exercises 1
an optimal the Criterions of
to 3 decision-making. Laplace, Wald, etc.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
The document
Use of criterion The objectives of
Although the theme leaves unresolved
Game theory in the work were
is treated in a graphical methods
real situations fulfilled
partial way, the according to game
that require satisfactorily and
value of the game theory, so that the
decision- the analysis of 15
and its decisions are decisions and value
making the results leads
not defined of the game have
processes to an optimal
correctly. not been
in the exercise decision-making.
determined.
4
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Use of criterion Although the theme
The objectives of
Mixed is treated in a The paper leaves
the work were
strategies in partial way, the unresolved game
satisfactorily
real situations fulfilled, the value value of the game, theory according to
that require according to the mixed strategies, so
of the game and 10
decision- mixed strategies did a correct decision is
the decisions
not lead to a correct not obtained.
making were correct.
decision making.
processes in
Until 5 points Until 0 points
the exercise 5 Until 10 points
 Performance Criteria for Collaborative Activity Score
Aspects
High rating Average rating Low rating
evaluated

Although the
The document document presents a
presents an basic structure, it
excellent lacks some elements The basic norms for
structure, all the of the requested the construction of
exercises are body or does not reports are
Structure of the solved according comply with the nonexistent like the
12
Report to the proposed norms for written Criterions applied to
methodology and works. Not all the themes of the
Criterions of the Exercises are solved theory of decisions.
theory of according to the
decisions. Criterions of the
course.

Until 12 points Until 6 points Until 0 points

The use of the Although the use of
The practical
practical the practical
environment of the
environment of environment in the
course has been no
the course is final report is
longer explored, for
Use of the excellent, the evident, the
that reason the
practical results and the solutions found by
evidence in the use 15
learning analysis of these the application lack
of the application to
environment are shown analysis and
solve the Exercises
correctly in the conclusions
raised has been
final work pertinent to efficient
limited.
presented. decision making.
Until 15 points Until 8 points Until 0 points
Final score 75