The Data Detective

Have you ever heard that babies are delivered by storks? Statistics actually
confirm this to be the case: Countries that have higher stork populations also
have more babies than those with smaller stork populations. 
Of course, this isn’t really true. But this goes to show how easy it is to present
statistics to convince people of something that isn’t true. It’s no wonder
people are so leery when they hear statistics being thrown around. 
In The Data Detective: Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of
Statistics, economist Tim Harford gives a practical guide on how to cut
through the half-truths and truly understand the statistics that we come
across. His ten rules are: 
1st Search Your Feelings
2nd Ponder Your Personal Experience
3rd Avoid Premature Enumeration 
4th Step Back and Enjoy the View
5th Get the Back Story
6th Ask Who Is Missing
7th Demand Transparency When the Computer Says ‘No’ 
8th Don’t Take Statistical Bedrock for Granted 
9th Remember That Misinformation Can Be Beautiful Too 
10th Keep an Open Mind
Using his simple tips, you can be an expert at statistics in no time! 
Here are just 3 of the many useful and eye-opening lessons I got from this
book
1st Take note of what your emotional reaction is and learn when it’s better
to trust statistics or your own experiences. 
2nd Find what a statistic is measuring and look for context to really
understand it.
3rd Statistics don’t always apply to every person because of sampling
 problems. 
What’re the odds you’ll learn something new about statistics in the next 4
minutes? Read on to find out!
Lesson 1: Watch out for statistics that invoke a strong
emotion and learn when you should trust your own
experience or a statistic.
Unfortunately, statistics can fool many people, especially when it stirs
their emotions. Of course, not all statistics will cause any emotional reaction.
But some statistics, particularly those that are politically charged, can easily
stir our emotions. 
When this happens and the information doesn’t fit with our existing beliefs,
we tend to ignore it. When it does fit in with our narrative, we like to use it as
evidence. Even experts aren’t immune to this sort of bias. 
In fact, there are studies that show that people who are considered
experts are even less likely to change their beliefs even if they are
confronted head-on with a contradiction. It’s easy to see why– they are
motivated to avoid conflicting evidence and want to boost their
own argument. 
So how can we avoid this? First, notice how a statistical claim makes you
feel. Are you overjoyed, upset, or in denial? After noting your emotions, stop
to think about whether you are straining to come to a particular conclusion.
This will help you think more clearly, free from bias. It can also help others
follow suit. 
However, there are times when personal experience can inform us as well or
better than a statistic. When it comes to health outcomes, statistics usually
win out, because the broad data shows a more accurate picture than your own
experience. 
On the other hand, statistics can be skewed in certain settings. This is seen a
lot with performance reviews because people are more likely to distort or
manipulate data when there is money or career opportunities at stake. In this
case, judging performance on a case-by-case basis is likely preferable.

Lesson 2: Considering what a statistic is really measuring

and finding context can help us better understand
information.
In the 2010s, the UK appeared to be experiencing an infant mortality crisis.
What’s more, rates of death varied widely depending on where you lived. It
turned out the reason for this variation was because the definition of early
death was different in different regions. Some places considered a baby born
at 22 or 23 weeks to be a miscarriage and some considered it a live birth
followed by early death.
 This goes to show how important it is to find what a statistic is actually
measuring. Look deeper to understand exactly what or who is being counted,
because this can make a world of difference on a statistic. 
Murky definitions like this make room for people to distort facts, often to
support a political perspective. This is why it’s important to investigate
what the definitions are in a claim before you can accept or argue against it. 
Finding context also can help us understand statistics. For example, a 2018
article in London’s newspapers claimed that London now had a
higher murder rate than New York City. Technically, the claim was true. But
if you back up and look at the context, you can see this statistic doesn’t mean
much at all. 
If you look at the past statistics of murders in both cities, you will see that
murder rates in both cities have fallen significantly over the years, and New
York started with a much higher rate that continues to fall. 
But this doesn’t mean suddenly London is a crime-ridden gang-infested city.
Both cities are now safer than ever! Unfortunately, it’s all too common for the
news to prioritize things happening right now and leave out the bigger
picture.

Lesson 3: Statistics may not all apply to everyone equally.

Do you ever feel pressured to be like the people around you? Almost all of us
do to some extent. In one study by psychologist Solomon Asch, he showed
subjects two images of three lines of different lengths. One of the lines was
the reference line and the participants just had to say which one of the other
two was the same length as the reference line. 
But the catch was that the subjects were unknowingly surrounded by people
who were told to choose the wrong line. The subjects chose the wrong line
to conform with their peers a significant amount of the time. It was a
fascinating and intriguing study, but there is one problem that makes it not
applicable to people as a whole: it only included white male college students. 
More and more, psychologists are becoming aware of this problem. In the
years since, researchers have repeated the Asch experiment and found similar
results. Although, they also found differences such as that women conformed
more often than men.  
Polling has a particular issue with sampling biases. The fact of the matter is
that some types of people are more likely to respond in a poll than
others. Another problem is where data is polled from. For example, if you
use Twitter as your data, you might have an excess in opinions in young,
college-aged people. 
This is why it’s important when you encounter data to ask: Who might have
been missed in this sample? Try your best to find the answer because you
might just find a blind spot in the sampling.
Lesson 1: Using a fresh start can make changing easier.
Have you ever made a New Year’s resolution? Some people might joke about
how many people use the New Year as a time to make drastic changes. Why
would a new year suddenly make goals more attainable? 
But actually, there is some benefit to starting in the new year. It is not because
the month of January is different from other months but because of what it
represents- a fresh start. Other fresh starts could be a birthday, a new
semester, or even a Monday. 
The author discovered this when she and her colleagues examined data from
college campus fitness centers. So what about a fresh start is so special? 
A fresh start gives you a new perspective. It places a distance between the
previous goals you didn’t reach and the new ones you aspire to.
However, fresh starts aren’t always a miracle for change. Two studies that
looked at college students’ gym activity during the school year found that
breaks caused a significant disruption in students’ new, healthy routines. The
breaks could definitely be seen as a fresh start, just not a positive one for
goals.
The author says to be on the lookout for new fresh starts if you want to start
changing and make sure they don’t have a disruptive effect on your progress.

Lesson 2: There are some simple strategies you can employ

to fight off impulsivity and procrastination.
So say you have started your goals with a fresh start and are eager to change,
but soon enough, you’re finding it hard to fight off impulses. Instead of
reaching for an apple, you’re reaching for chips, or you’re consumed with
social media rather than studying. 
Another word for impulsivity is present bias. Acting impulsively places
instant gratification over long-term goals. It leads you to look for immediate
pleasures and forget about the rewards you would have down the line if you
stuck to your goals. 
One of the strategies the author has for fighting impulsivity is to use what she
calls temptation bundling. This is where you pair a pleasurable activity with a
challenging one to make it more appealing. An example of this would be
watching your favorite show while running on a treadmill. 
Another technique is gamification, where you make real-world tasks
seem more fun by adding elements of a game to them, like keeping score
or adding rewards. An example of this is using a step counter that gives you
badges to reward you for reaching a walking goal. 
Another common issue that might plague your goal-achieving is
procrastination. All of us do it. But it can be overcome. One of the things you
can do is have a commitment device. This is a system that restricts your
freedom to help you deal with temptation. An example of this would be
blocking distracting apps on your phone during work hours.
Another tried and true strategy is to make a public pledge. This is when you
tell your friends, family, or anyone about what you are aiming for, and it’s
very effective at helping you reach a goal. After all, who wants others to see
them fail at something they publicly said they would do?

Lesson 3: Be mindful of who you spend time with.

There are certain people you spend time with who can make it harder to
achieve your goals, but there are also people who can help you. This is why
it’s best to be on the lookout for a friend group that will help you. 
Peers have such a strong influence over us because we humans are very
susceptible to social pressure. Many times, people see this as a negative
thing. Remember the talks about peer pressure when you were younger? 
However, it can also help you. When economist Scott Carnell was enrolled in
the US Air Force Academy, he was surprised that his twin brother seemed to
be doing much better than him academically. In high school, Scott had better
grades. 
He began to suspect it might be the hardworking group of peers he had
become friends with at the Academy. So he decided to crunch the numbers of
cadets in the academy and looked at over 3,000 cadets’ academic
performance. 
He discovered that for every 100 point increase in average verbal SAT score
for a squadron, the cadet’s own GPA was higher by 0.4. That can be the
difference between straight Bs and straight As. 
So whether you realize it or not, your peers can have a huge influence on
your success, which is why you should make sure you surround yourself
with good influences. If you find someone you would like to emulate, ask
them how they got to where they are and try their techniques. Soon enough,
you’ll start improving your own life.