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V
AS
UA
ST R
overall rating. All other dimensions were unchanged from the previous quarter.
LIT
LE
O
Y
NG
HISTORICAL RATINGS
W Q U ALITY
B ALANC
ONG
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
STRO
STR
OVERALL RATING HOLD SELL HOLD BUY
NG
FLO
E SH
EARNINGS QUALITY STRONG STRONGEST STRONG STRONG
SH
EE
CASH FLOW QUALITY STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONG STR O NG
CA
T
OPERATING EFFICIENCY WEAK STRONG WEAK STRONG
OPE CY
BALANCE SHEET STRONG STRONG STRONG STRONG R A TI N G E F FIC I EN
VALUATION MEDIUM RISK LOW RISK LEAST RISK LEAST RISK
Price (JPY, AS OF 04/25/19) 401.00 MARKET CAP. 4.0 BILLION PRICE/SALES 0.2
PRICE/EARNINGS 15.6 PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH 0.1 PRICE/CASH FLOW 13.3
PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS 18.7 PRICE/ADJUSTED EARNINGS GROWTH 0.1 PRICE/ADJUSTED CASH FLOW 4.7
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
NET INCOME VS. ADJUSTED NET INCOME IN MILLIONS EARNINGS VS. OPERATING CASH FLOW IN MILLIONS
Adjusted Net Income Reported Operating Cash Flow
Adjusted Net Income as a Percentage of Net Income Operating Cash Flow as a Percentage of Earnings
170.6% 150.4% 71.0% 96.5% 100.0% 1051.8% 868.9% NA NA NA
400 2,000
372.0
372.0
301.0
301.0
1,481.0
177.0
112.0
910.0
290.6
266.2
200 0
-1,466.0
213.6
191.1
-341.0
-358.0
372.0
301.0
301.0
177.0
112.0
0 -2,000
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Trailing Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Trailing
2017 2018 12 Months Q2 2019 Q3 2019 2017 2018 12 Months Q2 2019 Q3 2019
ACCRUALS % OF SALES
Actual Accruals Forcasted Accruals
12.5%
10.0%
7.5%
5.0%
2.5%
8.4%
8.4%
5.0%
9.9%
8.6%
8.6%
8.2%
6.5%
7.9%
7.8%
7.9%
5.2%
7.3%
5.7%
8.1%
7.1%
0.0%
Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
1,200.0
1,178.0
2,000 2,000
831.0
1,481.0
1,143.0
910.0
0 NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA
563.0
-2,000 -2,000
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Trailing Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Trailing
2017 2018 12 Months Q2 2019 Q3 2019 2017 2018 12 Months Q2 2019 Q3 2019
0.30 20.0%
0.20 10.0%
0.10 0.0%
0.00 -10.0%
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
DEBT COVERAGE
Adjusted Debt Coverage
200
100
-100
-200
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
10.0%
30.0%
0.0%
20.0%
-10.0%
10.0% -20.0%
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
27.5%
0.0%
25.0%
-10.0%
22.5%
-20.0% 20.0%
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
200.0%
4.0%
100.0%
2.0%
0.0%
0.0% -100.0%
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
1.40
3.40
1.30
3.20
1.20
1.10 3.00
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
10.00
7.50
5.00
2.50
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
20
2.50
15
2.25
10
5 2.00
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
1.05
1.00 0.85
0.95
0.90 0.80
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
35 12
30 10
25 8
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19 Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
CASH IN MILLIONS
Change from previous quarter: UP▲
5,000
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
Q4 17 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 Q3 19
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
PRICE/EARNINGS
RANGE As Reported Adjusted Diversified Consumer Services Sector
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
40
Reported Price/Earnings 15.60 46.80 27.80 30
Adjusted Price/Earnings 11.30 37.40 20.68 20
Sector Price/Earnings 15.60 18.30 17.49 10
30.5
37.4
28.5
23.2
16.8
15.6
15.6
18.7
19.1
0.8
0.7
0.7
0
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
PRICE/CASH FLOW
RANGE As Reported Adjusted Diversified Consumer Services Sector
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
50
Reported Price/Cash Flow 13.30 46.80 27.53
Adjusted Price/Cash Flow -776.80 55.10 -85.45
16.9
25
13.6
13.3
12.3
11.6
11.6
7.9
5.6
23.2
4.7
55.1
19.1
0
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
PRICE/EARNINGS GROWTH
RANGE As Reported Adjusted Diversified Consumer Services Sector
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
0.80
Reported Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.40 0.20 0.60
Adjusted Price/Earnings Growth 0.10 0.50 0.30 0.40
0.2
0.2
0.20
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.00
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
PRICE/SALES
RANGE As Reported Diversified Consumer Services Sector
LAST 2 YEARS LOW HIGH AVERAGE
0.80
Reported Price/Sales 0.20 0.30 0.26 0.60
Sector Price/Sales 0.60 0.70 0.65 0.40
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.20
0.6
0.3
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.00
Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
DEFINITIONS
Adjusted Net Income: Adjusted Net Income is a company’s from continuing operations.
reported net income less adjustments for one-time and
Adjusted Debt Coverage: Adjusted Debt Coverage is a measure
non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a
of a company’s ability to cover its debt obligations with cash
company’s ongoing earnings.
flow it generated from continuing operations, calculated using a
Accruals – Forecasted and Actual: The comparison of forecasted company’s adjusted cash flow.
and actual accruals identifies a discretionary build not
Adjusted Return on Invested Capital: Adjusted ROIC assesses a
attributable to a company’s sales growth, and could be a sign of
company’s efficiency at allocating the capital to profitable
poor earnings quality. For our purposes, the forecasted accrual
investments using a company’s adjusted net income (see above)
component is an aggregate measurement of total accruals
yielding a measure of how well a company is using its capital to
(short-term balance sheet accounts) that distinguishes between
generate returns.
“normalized” and “extraordinary” accruals. The normalized
accruals are based on historical relationships between sales and Adjusted EBIT Margin: Adjusted EBIT Margin is a measure of a
accruals and are dynamically adjusted over time to account for company’s earnings before interest and income taxes less
changes in the ratio between these two variables. Normally, adjustments for one-time and non-operating items divided by a
short term accruals will grow as sales grow – i.e., the company’s sales.
“normalized” measure. Discretionary accruals are the portion of
accruals that are in excess of the base factor and therefore Adjusted Net Margin: Adjusted Net Margin is a measure of a
exceed the normal and are “extraordinary”. company’s net income less adjustments for one-time and
non-operating items divided by a company’s sales.
Adjusted Operating Cash Flow: Adjusted Operating Cash Flow is
reported operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time and Return on Incremental Invested Capital: ROIIC measures the
non-operating items yielding a more realistic picture of a relationship between incremental investment and incremental
company’s ongoing cash flow from operations. net operating profit after tax. This provides a measure of the
returns a company is earning on recent investments rather than
Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Adjusted Free Cash Flow is reported all investments as measured by ROIC.
operating cash flow less adjustments for one-time,
non-operating items and capital expenditures. This provides a Cash Conversion Cycle: The Cash Conversion Cycle measures
more realistic picture of a company’s ongoing cash generation the number of days working capital is tied up from the date of
from operations after capital investments. purchase of raw materials until the collection of cash from the
sale of the product.
Flow Ratio: The Flow Ratio is a measurement of management’s
effectiveness in managing its working capital to maximize the Debt to Tangible Equity: Debt to Tangible Equity is a ratio of a
company’s cash flows. The measure is a ratio of a company’s company’s debt to equity less adjustments for goodwill and
non-cash current assets to its non-interest bearing short-term other intangible assets yielding tangible equity.
liabilities.– These non-cash assets include items such as Debt to Tangible Assets: Debt to Tangible Assets is a ratio of a
accounts receivable (which are essentially interest-free loans to company’s debt to total assets less adjustments for goodwill and
customers) and inventory (which is subject to obsolescence or other intangible assets.
spoilage). The non-interest bearing liabilities are essentially
interest-free loans to the company. A lower ratio implies tighter Price/Adjusted Earnings: Adjusted Price/Earnings is a relative
cash management for a company as it has less cash tied up in valuation measure comparing a company’s share price to its
non-cash current assets and is able to utilize interest free loans adjusted net income.
from suppliers. Price/Adjusted Cash Flow: Adjusted Price/Cash Flow is a
Cash Flow Return on Investment: Cash Flow ROI is a measure relative valuation measure comparing a company’s share price
of a company’s ability to generate operating cash flow from its to its adjusted cash flow.
invested capital. Many analysts consider this measure preferable Price/Adjusted Earnings Growth: Adjusted Price/Earnings
to an earnings return measure such as ROE since cash flow is Growth is a relative valuation measure comparing a company’s
considered a more reliable measure. share price to its growth in adjusted earnings.
Adjusted Cash Flow Return on Investment: Adjusted Cash Flow
ROI is a measure of the ability to generate operating cash flow
from its investment in capital calculated using a company’s
adjusted cash flow.
Debt Coverage: Debt Coverage is a measure of a company’s
ability to cover its debt obligations with cash flow it generated
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FINANCIAL SONAR™: REALITY RADAR ON COMPANY PERFORMANCE
The Jefferson Financial Sonar™ ratings system classifies companies into three categories: Buy, Hold and Sell. The Financial Sonar
rating is the result of a point scoring system derived from the five main criteria. The more negative the rating, the more likely the
overall rating will be a Sell. More positive criteria will support an Overall Rating of Buy.
Jefferson Research & Management has developed the Financial Sonar™ Rating System which is based upon five analytical criteria:
Earnings Quality, Cash Flow, Operating Efficiency, Balance Sheet, and Valuation. The first four criteria are rated in one of four
categories (best to worst): Strongest, Strong, Weak, Weakest. Valuation is also rated in one of four categories (best to worst): Least
Risk, Low Risk, Medium Risk, Most Risk.
Jefferson Research & Management is an independent investment research and advisory firm founded in 1989 and based in Portland,
Oregon. The firm has been providing fundamental research to institutional and individual clients for more than 20 years. Financial
Sonar™ ratings are based on a proprietary rating system developed by Jefferson Research & Management that measures the changes
in company fundamentals using information from financial statements.
DISCLAIMER
This report is for information purposes only for clients of Jefferson Research & Management and in no way should be interpreted as a
complete investment recommendation. This report has been prepared exclusively by Jefferson Research & Management.
Information contained in this report is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made to its accuracy and no
representation is made that it is complete, or that errors, if discovered, will be corrected.
1) Jefferson Research & Management and its staff are not involved in investment banking activities for firms covered.
2) No employee of Jefferson Research & Management is on the board of any covered company and no outsiders are members of
Jefferson Research & Management’s board.
3) Jefferson Research & Management employees trading stock in rated companies are subject to trading restrictions prior to release
(once identified) and for a one day period subsequent to rating changes but do not individually or collectively own more than 1
percent of the outstanding stock of a covered company.
No part of this report can be reprinted or transmitted electronically without the prior written authorization of Jefferson Research &
Management.
Reproduction of any information, data or material, including ratings (“Content”) in any form is prohibited except with the prior
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adequacy, completeness, timeliness or availability of any Content and are not responsible for any errors or omissions (negligent or
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with any use of the Content. A reference to a particular investment or security, a rating or any observation concerning an investment
that is part of the Content is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such investment or security, does not address the suitability
of an investment or security and should not be relied on as investment advice. Credit ratings are statements of opinions and are not
statements of fact.
Credit: Copyright © 2018, S&P Global Market Intelligence (and its affiliates, as applicable).
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