MCL756: Assignment 2/Date of submission: 7 Sep 2021

Marks for assignment: 75 / question 1 to 4 carry 10 marks each and question 5 carres 35 marks)
1. Obtain the following data for the daily dollar Rupee Exchange rate:
Write the source from where you are taking these values (like https://in.investing.com/currencies/usd-
inr) :
Date Exchange rate (Rs/$)
For example: Day
1
Day 2
Day 3

Day 10
Choose your own starting date (Like Aug 1 , day 10 as Aug 10) . Please specify this in your table.
a) Make a forecast for Day 11 using a moving average of length 3. [ Marks: 3]
b) Make a forecast for Day 11 using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing parameter of alpha
(choose your own alpha) [Marks:4]
c) Which one will you choose: 3 day moving average or exponential smoothing with your alpha vale and
why? [Marks:3]

2. Consider the following time series (of Consumption and National Income for an economy). Using excel,
forecast the consumption for month 13. Attach excel output with all details. How good is the model?

[Marks: 10]
Month National
Consumption Income
Ci Yi
1 102 114
2 106 118
3 108 126
4 110 130
5 122 136
6 124 140
7 128 148
8 130 156
9 142 160
10 148 164
11 150 170
12 154 178
(Please save your excel output in a pdf and attach with your file. These should be ONLY single pdf file as
answer to this assignment. DO NOT HAVE MULTIPLE files !0

3. Acme is a computer store located in a residential university campus. The table shows the sale of
computer vis-à-vis printers.
Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Computers 1045 1610 860 1211 975 1117 1066 1310 1517 1246
sold
Printers 381 579 312 501 296 415 535 592 607 472
sold
 a) Develop a linear trend line forecast model to forecast printer demand in year 11.[Marks:3]
b) Develop a linear regression model relating printer sales to computer sales to forecast printer
demand in Year 11. [Marks: 4]
c) Compare the forecasts developed in (a) and (b) and indicate which one appears to be better and
why? [ Mark :3]

4. “As a supply chain manager, your job is to predict and be prepared “ – Vice -President (Supply Chain )
of a Fortune500 company engaged in consumer electronics.
Defend the above giving support from real-life examples (at least 2 examples).
[Marks: 10]

5. Consider the following lists of some well-known organizations in SCM.

List A
A.1 Amul A.6 BASF A.11 Indian Railways
A.2 Arvind Mills A.7 Cisco A.12 Air India
A.3 DLL/Bluedart A.8 Lenovo A.13 BSNL
A.4 Godrej A.9 Nike A.14 ONGC/IOC
A.5 Tatacliq A.10 Schneider- Electric A.15 Indian Posts
a) Take any one organization from List A. Justify why you have taken that organization for analyzing their
supply chains.
[ 5 marks]
b) For this organization, use Porter's “five force analysis**" for analysing the supply chains. Justify why
you are choosing this framework.
[ 30 marks]

** Porter’s five forces

Porter’s five Forces, Aug 2026, Business 2 You
https://www.business-to-you.com/porters-five-forces/
https://www.isc.hbs.edu/strategy/business-strategy/Pages/the-five-forces.aspx
https://medium.com/pitchspot/using-the-porters-five-forces-framework-for-industry-analysis-d0221a8f4fe1