International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr

Vulnerability index related to populations at-risk for landslides in the

Brazilian Early Warning System (BEWS)
Mariane Carvalho de Assis Dias a, *, Silvia Midori Saito a, Regina C�elia dos Santos Alvala
� a,
a a a
Marcelo Enrique Seluchi , Tiago Bernardes , Pedro Ivo Mioni Camarinha , Cla �udio Stenner b,
Carlos Afonso Nobre c
a
Coordination of Research and Development, National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters - CEMADEN, 500 Estrada Doutor Altino
Bondensan, Distrito de Eug^enio de Melo, S~ ao Jos�e dos Campos, SP, Brazil
b
Coordination of Geography, Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics - IBGE, 500 República do Chile, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
c
Institute of Advanced Studies, University of S~
ao Paulo, S~
ao Paulo, SP, Brazil

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Vulnerability indices are valuable tools for supporting disaster risk management and are primarily used to reduce
at-risk population human losses. Despite relevant advances in developing tools and metrics towards identifying vulnerable pop­
CEMADEN ulations, one current challenge is the incorporation of socioeconomic information into an early warning system
Operational Index for Vulnerability Analysis
for disasters. This paper aims to propose and evaluate a vulnerability population index to support monitoring and
(InOV)
social vulnerability
issuing early warnings for disaster risk in Brazil. Using indicators that characterize the population’s physical
socioeconomic indicators exposure and capacity for response, the Operational Index for Vulnerability Analysis (InOV) was developed for
443 Brazilian municipalities. This study advances the current understanding of this topic through its use of data
on an intra-urban scale, which allows a relational analysis of at-risk areas within each municipality. Based on a
total of 6,227,740 vulnerable people in landslide risk areas, almost 42% were classified with very high, 35% with
high and 23% with medium vulnerability. Data regarding the victims and populations affected by landslides were
used to validate the index. The correlation between the incidences of human losses in the areas classified as very
high vulnerability class was verified. The development and validation of the InOV demonstrated the potential for
incorporating socioeconomic information into the context of the Brazilian Early Warning System (BEWS). This
index can support the identification of priority areas providing additional information about vulnerable pop­
ulations to be included in early warnings of disaster risk.

1. Introduction
Disasters related to climate and geophysical factors (including
landslides, floods, and flash floods) killed 1.3 million people globally,
affected an additional 4.4 billion, and caused direct economic losses
valued at 2245 billion USD in the decades between 1998 and 2017 [80].
Landslides are defined as the rapid movement of a mass of rock, debris,
or earth down a slope [34], 4862 of which were reported as causing
deaths [29] between 2004 and 2016 around the world.
In Brazil, almost 39,000 disasters related to hydrometeorological
conditions were recorded between 1991 and 2010 [19]. In recent de­
cades, the frequency of landslides has increased; this type of disaster
(along with flash floods) has been associated with a higher number of
deaths. Based on the number of emergency requests recognized by the
national civil defense authorities, 6.958 victims were claimed by land­
slides between 1991 and 2018 [66]. Among other aspects, the landslide
risk in Brazil is related to the high exposure of the population especially
in municipalities distributed throughout the country’s coastal zone,
which extends 7000 km and concentrates 26% of Brazilian population
[40], as well as in municipalities dispersed throughout the country that
present narrow valleys and steep slopes, as the mountains regions. The
intense occupation of Brazil began in the 16th century and occurred
mainly in the regions characterized by plateaus and mountains towards
the West-Southeast Atlantic, which comprise slopes with convex tops,
high density drainage channels, and deep valleys, as well as coastal
plains along the country’s eastern coast [1,60]. In addition, the popu­
lation is exposed in at-risk areas, and is characterized by living condi­
tions that are worse than those of populations in other municipalities

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: mariane.assis@cemaden.gov.br (M.C. Assis Dias).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101742
Received 15 January 2020; Received in revised form 9 June 2020; Accepted 21 June 2020
Available online 5 July 2020
2212-4209/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
classified as the most critically at-risk [6]. Precipitation patterns, which
are characterized by very intense rainfall during the summer months,
aggravate the level of risk caused by extreme rainfall events [10,55,58,
67].
The territorial extension of areas at-risk for disaster in Brazil was
estimated at 3000 km2, and is susceptible to landslides, floods, and flash
floods; it comprises areas mapped as high and very high risk in recent
years, out of 825 municipalities that are critically vulnerable to disaster
[6]. A total of 8,266,566 people were estimated to be at-risk [6,39], and
approximately 75% were located in hazard-prone areas related to
landslides or landslides/floods; as such, the population’s vulnerability is
considerable. The recurrence of events in recent years shows the urgency
of promoting actions that mitigate the disaster risk [74]. Thus, among
the non-structural mitigation measures available for reducing human
losses related to hazardous events, the Early Warning System (EWS)
constitutes a significant tool towards assisting authorities in disaster risk
reduction (DRR) [15,75]. To ensure the efficiency of a EWS, it is
necessary to include information about the risk, as well as assure the
uninterrupted monitoring of hazards that impact various susceptible
areas. In the case of a disaster emergency, an early warning can be
disseminated and communicated to those who are prepared for it (i.e.
stakeholders, the affected community), as recommended by UNISDR
[76].
To improve the Brazilian EWS (BEWS), this study aims to propose
and evaluate a vulnerability population index to support monitoring and
issuing early warnings of disaster risk. The proposed index was devel­
oped to identify the high-priority at-risk areas warranting special
attention by civil defense authorities in a disaster. The next section
provides a literature review regarding vulnerability in the context of
EWS.
2. Conceptual framework: index and indicators of a
population’s vulnerability to disaster in the context of EWS
Studies on population vulnerability to disaster provide three ap­
proaches: (i) identifying the conditions of exposure that increase
vulnerability to disaster [37,62]; ii) the premise that vulnerability is a
social condition and can be measured through society’s resilience to
hazards [51]; iii) the integration of exposure conditions and resilience
measures [52,61,79]. In the latter approach, the focus is on integrating
analyses of exposure and resilience; however, these approaches are
limited to detailed studies focused on a specific location or region [21,
30]. The common objective shared by the three approaches includes the
diagnosis of a given population’s vulnerability, that is, the identification
and understanding of population characteristics that increase vulnera­
bility to propose measures for the mitigation and reduction of disaster
risk.
A pioneering methodology was developed to assess the social
vulnerability of all American counties based on census data. The index,
which was named the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) [21] included
multidimensional indicators of population and resilience following a
disaster. The results highlighted the main components capable of
increasing a population’s vulnerability to disasters. In recent years,
other studies focusing on different regions of the world have adopted the
same methodology proposed by Cutter et al. [21], [24,31,38,47,70].
Other studies have since been proposed alongside the development of
researches aimed at diagnosing vulnerability [37,51,52,61,62,79],
which mainly focus on the inclusion of vulnerability information in EWS
integrated risk analysis to support emergency planning as well as alert
at-risk populations. Regarding actions aimed at raising risk awareness
and monitoring hazards in the context of EWS, several studies have
advocated the use of vulnerability information [18,26,35].
Flood hazard maps and vulnerability data were combined to quantify
risks in the city of Oliva, Spain, while also considering the expected
affected population, potential injuries, the number of fatalities, and
economic damages [18]. Results from the hydrological risk models are
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
useful in planning local actions and assessing the benefits of structural
and non-structural risk reduction measures. The authors argue that the
identification of groups with high levels of vulnerability (e.g. the
elderly, students) could help to define specific public education cam­
paigns and warning procedures. The results of the risk model could also
be used to support the communication of risks and increase risk
awareness.
A methodology was developed for Huaraz city, Peru, to allow the
inclusion of social vulnerability into the traditional evacuation–mobi­
lization model. This methodology combines a series of modules with
various types of information that interact during an evacuation (i.e.
evacuation rate curves, mobilization, inundation models, and social
vulnerability indexes) to create an integrated map of the evacuation rate
for a given location [35]. It is highlighted that the census data obtained
in Peru provided information about households and population char­
acteristics, which were then combined into a flood model to generate an
evacuation model. The methodology aims to identify the areas that need
the greatest attention, as well as estimate the time required to evacuate
the population from these areas, to promote an efficient evacuation
process. More specifically, an integrated methodology was developed
for Central Java, an Indonesian province, for early landslide warning
[26]. The authors included socioeconomic and cultural information
obtained through surveys as risk-related information. They considered
that the information pertaining to potential vulnerable inhabitants (e.g.
the number of people of a certain age, gender, or level of education) and
infrastructure exposed to landslides was important in determining a
certain area’s level of risk. The results were used to indicate the locations
in which early detection devices for landslides should be installed and to
develop evacuation maps indicating unsafe zones (low to high risk) and
evacuation routes; as well as provide detailed information regarding the
heads of households.
It is noteworthy that the scale of approach was restricted to munic­
ipalities or communities in these studies, and also that the scientific
literature regarding how vulnerability information could be incorpo­
rated into the EWS at the national level [6] is scarce.
In Brazil, integrated DRR and EWS actions were defined in the Na­
tional Plan for Risk Management and Disaster Response (PNGRRD in
Portuguese), which launched in 2012 [14]. Specifically, the axis
comprising the monitoring and early warning of natural disasters, which
focuses on critically vulnerable municipalities, i.e. municipalities with a
history of disaster events triggered by extreme hydrometeorological
events, is the responsibility of the National Center for Monitoring and
Early Warning of Natural Disaster (CEMADEN) [36]. Warnings
regarding the likely occurrence of landslides, floods, and flash floods
affecting social systems are sent by CEMADEN to the National Risk
Management Center (CENAD) from the National Secretariat of Civil
Defense (SEDEC). The CENAD relays the warnings to the municipal civil
defense, which is then responsible for communication and response
actions at the local level [43]. The early warning issued by CEMADEN
focuses on the intra-municipal scale, i.e. considers the areas at-risk for
disaster that are mapped for each municipality that is monitored.
It is noteworthy that prior to the phase of risk communication,
awareness of the risk areas, monitoring the hazards and vulnerability of
the population are necessary; therefore, BEWS requires the integration
of information generated by different institutions. Meanwhile, it
recently became possible to estimate the members of the population who
are most exposed to landslides, floods, and flash floods in Brazil due to
the increased availability of databases regarding at-risk populations [6,
39]. The methodology that was developed allowed a more realistic
depiction of the at-risk population, since it was based on population
census data, which contrasted with that determined previously (based
on household count and a fixed number of residents per household). The
database that was generated has proven useful in the development of
methodologies aimed at integrating the vulnerability of the resident
at-risk population with those implemented by CEMADEN to monitor
at-risk areas. Consequently, the database supports the development of a
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
synthetic vulnerability index for the at-risk area scale, thereby enabling
the insertion of detailed information for monitoring and early warning.
Vulnerability indices have been developed for different contexts in
Brazil; however, such indices were proposed based on scales at the
municipality level or according to data aggregated by census tracts [4,5,
23,28], or even based on methodologies that were not focused on
disaster-related studies [20,65]. Although differences exist between the
concepts of vulnerability and application in the most diverse areas [68],
there is consensus on the notion that vulnerability is associated with the
potential for loss due to an eminent disaster [21]. Specifically in social
vulnerability studies, the most vulnerable population groups are
considered those with the greatest potential for loss and damage, i.e. the
most vulnerable population is more likely to die and/or be injured or
face difficulties in the re-establishment of normality following an event
or incident characterized by material loss, among other consequences.
Thus, it is essential to identify the exposed population and their living
conditions to ensure their recovery following the occurrence of a
disaster [63].
Indicators of exposure and capacity for response are essential in
developing synthetic indexes of social vulnerability to disasters. Those
related to personal attributes, such as age, gender, race, literacy, in­
come, education, health, housing type, and employment [21] are used
most frequently in the existing literature. Table 1 summarizes some
Table 1
Example of vulnerability indicators relevant to the development of synthetic
indexes for social vulnerability to disasters.
Characteristics Vulnerability conditions (personal attributes)
Age (children and - Children and elderly are the demographic groups most
elderly) vulnerable to disasters [21,53];
- These groups require special care, given their greater
dependence when autonomous locomotion is required,
as well as their decreased capacity to resist potential
injuries [2,6,82];
- Elderly individuals are considered vulnerable due to
their reduced mobility and sensory awareness, pre-
existing health conditions, and social and economic
constraints that negatively impact their social capital
and ability to recover from a disaster [28,49,56,59].
Gender - A study based on data from 141 countries indicates
that disasters affect women’s life expectancy more
than that of men, due to factors that are not only
biological and physiological, but also socioeconomic,
such as lower social, cultural, and economic status
[54].
Per capita income - Income is considered a key factor in indicating a
situation’s vulnerability to disasters. A given group’s
capacity for response and protection is affected by
income level [42,72];
- A more optimal economic situation allows greater
access to resources and consequently enables the
protection of life, material, and subsistence assets, as
well as a more prompt recovery after a disaster [21,32,
77,81].
Characteristics of the - Household conditions primarily refer to basic services,
households such as the general water supply network, sewage
type, electrical grid or meters, and solid waste
collection [6];
- This indicator may reveal precarious situations and
greater exposure to disaster risk. For example,
residents living in households without a general water
supply network may experience an increase in soil
saturation, especially in cases of informal access,
which may trigger landslides [6];
- A water supply via cisterns, wells, rainfall, rivers, or
streams is more vulnerable to disasters. During
episodes of drought, contamination is likely [22];
- The relationship between an inappropriate wastewater
treatment system and the presence of rudimentary
septic tanks in areas vulnerable to landslides is
considered an anthropic condition that increases the
occurrence of disasters [3,8,17,50].
3
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
indicators and the conditions under which they were proposed. Differ­
entiated responses are expected based on the characteristics of the
exposed population, which comprises men and women, children, and
elderly individuals at-risk during a disaster [44]. Knowledge related to
these detailed characteristics is essential in the development of vulner­
ability indices.
Based on a review of the indicators developed/used in vulnerability
studies, as well as the availability of the Brazilian at-risk population
database, it is possible to identify the main indicators considered in a
vulnerability index in the context of the BEWS. These are presented and
discussed in Sections 3 and 4 (Methodology and Results).
3. Methodology
3.1. Selection of database
Databases containing detailed information pertaining to the at-risk
population are essential in the development of vulnerability indices
used in the at-risk area scale. Recently, detailed information specific to
Brazil was obtained by combining demographic census population data
with those from areas at-risk for landslides, floods, and flash floods [6,9,
64]. To generate the association between risk areas and the population
census database it was necessary to create a new territorial base in order
to associate both geometries, which was then named Statistical Terri­
torial Base of Risk (BATER). BATER constitutes a territorial general­
ization, since an exact intersection between both original polygons was
not possible [9] and aggregates the total of the at-risk population and
their characteristics. Previously, a methodology was developed and
estimated the at-risk population in 825 municipalities [9]. The infor­
mation included the characteristics of the population and households (i.
e. the total number of exposed individuals, number of people by income,
age, and gender, total number of household members who were
exposed, and their conditions, such as sanitation, water, and waste
collection) on a scale that was as closely aligned to the risk areas as
possible. In a previous article [6] a dataset containing a total of 8309
BATER polygons was delimited; from this total, 6435 were associated
with population data in 825 municipalities [7]. It was necessary to
identify the disaster risk typologies for these 6435 BATER polygons,
since each BATER polygon can be grouped with more than one risk area
and thus contains different risk typologies (as illustrated in Fig. 1). To
this end, the typology information resulting from mapping the risk was
associated with the BATER polygon, which was made possible by the
inclusion of a common column comprising the unique identifiers present
in both databases (i.e.: a unique identifier combined with the number of
each risk area and the BATER polygon).
Given that the main purpose of the present study is to develop a
vulnerability index associated with landslides, the areas at-risk for hy­
drological disaster were excluded (a total of 1618 BATER polygons),
thereby resulting in 4817 BATER polygons, which contained only
landslide risk areas or landslides and flooding. It is noteworthy that the
present methodology aims to identify the critical areas within a given
municipal territory; thus, a relational index is proposed that considers
the at-risk areas within each municipality. The comparison of these
areas for municipalities with only one BATER polygon was not possible;
they were thus excluded from the analysis. The final database comprises
4575 BATER polygons distributed throughout 443 municipalities
(Fig. 2).
3.2. The vulnerability index - Operational Index for Vulnerability
Analysis (InOV)
The methodological procedure used to obtain the Operational Index
for Vulnerability Analysis (InOV) is presented in Fig. 3. This operational
index was designed for inclusion in the warnings issued by the CEMA­
DEN in the BEWS context. The first step comprises the selection and
processing of vulnerability indicators, while the second step refers to the
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
Fig. 1. Example of different disaster risk typologies present in BATER polygons for the municipality of Coronel Fabriciano, MG. (a) Padre Rocha locality covered by
hydrological and landslide risk areas; (b) Santa Terezinha locality presents two surrounded landslides risk areas.
estimation of the index vulnerability. Both steps are detailed in the
subsequent sections.
3.2.1. Vulnerability indicators in the BEWS context
In the present study, vulnerability in the context of the BEWS is
considered a guiding principle for indicating the areas that are most
critically at-risk in the municipality, given the combination of residents’
low capacity for response and their conditions characterized by high
exposure, while also considering the severity of the geodynamic process,
as mentioned in Section 2. In the context of the BEWS, the synthetic
vulnerability index aims to identify the areas in which the highest
number of vulnerable people in the most critical conditions is concen­
trated in each municipality. The population in these conditions may
require the assistance and priority action of civil defense professionals
during an emergency. The proposed synthetic index is based on
vulnerability indicators, and characterizes the conditions of residents’
physical exposure in at-risk areas and their capacity for response
following a disaster.
Assuming the following: (i) the availability of the database to
develop the InOV (Section 3.1); (ii) the structure of the BEWS (Section
2); (iii) the indicators discussed in the literature review (Section 2); and
(iv) previously exploratory analysis of the available variables in the
dataset that indicate the most relevant variables to discuss the vulner­
ability in different municipalities in Brazil (6); four theoretical in­
dicators were selected that identify the critical conditions of the
households and residents’ capacity for response in at-risk areas. The four
indicators are: (i) the total number of exposed individuals, (ii) the total
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
number of children and elderly who are exposed, (iii) the total number
of exposed individuals who are without income or with an income per
capita of less than half the minimum wage and, (iv) the total number of
individuals in households with inadequate sanitation. Previous analysis
confirmed that this set of indicators corresponds to the worst conditions
for an exposed population in at-risk areas within Brazil [6,39,62].
The indicator (i) “the total number of exposed individuals” (ExpA )
refers to the relation between the percentage of the exposed population
per BATER polygon, and the total number of individuals at-risk areas
within the municipality. The number of people or types of assets in an
area is considered as a measure of exposure [76]. During evacuations,
the densely populated areas require special attention; thus, a weight of
two was assigned to this indicator, since it was considered the most
relevant in disaster response. In these cases, the areas with more people
are relevant and are prioritized in the calculation of the vulnerability
index.
The indicator (ii) comprised children under 5 years old and in­
dividuals above 60 years old In determining the most vulnerable ages, it
was considered that until 2013, the compulsory age at which a child in
Brazil had to enter early childhood education was 6 years old, in
accordance with the law nº 12796 of 2013. Thus, children under the age
of five could spend more time at home and were consequently more
vulnerable in at-risk areas. The elderly group comprises individuals over
60 years old, as recognized by the Statute of the Elderly (nº 10741 of
2003). This indicator comprises the sum of four variables (number of
residents under one year old; residents between 1 and 5 years old; res­
idents between 60 and 69 years old, and residents over 70 years old). As
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
Fig. 2. Spatial distribution of the selected municipalities per region of Brazil.
such, the percentage of vulnerable children and elderly people in rela­
tion to the total number of individuals who are within the population in
the BATER polygon was obtainedðExpCAPA Þ.
The income indicator comprises the sum of the three variables (i.e.
the number of residents in households without income per capita;
number of residents in households with income of less than a quarter of
the minimum wage; and the number of residents in households with
income of less than half of the minimum wage). The minimum wage in
2010 (R$510,00) corresponds to approximately 125 dollars USD. The
percentage of people vulnerable without income or with income up to
half a minimum wage of each BATER polygon was obtained from the
sum of these variables, in relation to the total of population in that
BATER ðExpCAPB ).
The sanitary conditions of the households can be characterized as
either inadequate or adequate. Adequate sanitation comprises two var­
iables: general sewage or storm water and septic tank. Meanwhile,
inadequate sanitation is classified as a rudimentary tank with waste that
is delivered via ditch, river, lake, sea, or another means. The percentage
of individuals in the vulnerable population that are living in households
with inadequate sanitation in each BATER polygon relative to the total
number in that particular BATER was obtainedðExpCAPC ).
3.2.2. Vulnerability index calculation
The percentages calculated for each indicator were transformed into
dimensionless values. In this step, the data were linearly normalized on a
scale from 0 to 1 (where 0 and 1 are the minimum and maximum values,
respectively). The minimum and maximum values of each vulnerability
indicator were calculated for each municipality based on the dataset of
all BATER polygons found.
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International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
The dimensionless values were calculated, and the subsequent re­
sults were normalized on a scale from 0 to 1 to obtain the InOV. This
index can be spatialized and the vulnerability is represented on a rela­
tional scale. Thus, values closer to zero represent a lower level of
physical exposure and a more optimal capacity for response (i.e. a lesser
vulnerability), while values closer to one represent a greater level of
physical exposure and a lower capacity for response, thereby indicating
areas of greater vulnerability. Since the InOV is a relational index on the
intra-urban scale, it allows a comparison between the exposure condi­
tions and the capacity for response of residents in all BATER polygons.
The final result is directly proportional to the highest percentage of
people in critical conditions, who are classified into three classes: me­
dium, high, and very high vulnerability. The low vulnerability class was
not adopted because the BATER polygons correspond to risk areas that
were previously mapped and already contain vulnerability conditions.
The stratification of the three classes was conducted assuming the
following steps: (i) the average value of the InOV for each municipality
was calculated; (ii) the InOV of each BATER polygon was analyzed based
on the value yielded by the average vulnerability of the municipality;
(iii) for vulnerability values of each BATER polygon that are lower than
the average value of BATER polygons in a given municipality, the area
can be classified as medium vulnerability. To obtain data associated
with the high vulnerability class, it was necessary to identify the break
value between the high to very high vulnerability classes. To this end,
the natural breaks (or Jenks method) were used, which is considered an
appropriate method in the analysis of socioeconomic data [41]. This
method allows the grouping of similar values, which are then used to
maximize the difference between classes, that is, limits are established
when a considerable difference between the data values exists, the latter
M.C. Assis Dias et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742

Fig. 3. Methodological procedures adopted for estimation of the InOV. *Acronyms utilized in the figure: ExpA ¼ Percentage of exposed people; ExpB ¼ Number of
exposed people per BATER polygon; ExpM ¼ Number of exposed people per municipality; ExpCAPA ¼ Percentage of exposed people per age; ExpBage ¼ Number of
children and elderly in each BATER polygon;ExpCAPB ¼ Percentage of exposed people per income per capita; ExpBincome ¼ Number of exposed people without
income or with an income per capita of less than half the minimum wage in each BATER; ExpCAPC ¼ Percentage of exposed people per inadequate sewage;
ExpBsewage ¼ Number of people living in households with inadequate sanitation in each BATER polygon.

of which are obtained from the frequency diagram analysis. The break
value was equal to 0.683, the value of which was calculated based on the
dataset of the 443 municipalities evaluated. The high vulnerability class
includes values higher than the municipality average up to 0.683. Values
ranging between 0.683 and 1 are associated with high vulnerability
classes.
3.2.3. Vulnerability index validation
The main goal of the validation was to verify whether the index
developed yields the real conditions for vulnerability. Validation can be
obtained through an independent second dataset, preferably at a finer
spatial resolution [27]. Moreover, several constraints are involved in
validating a social vulnerability index, e.g. it is difficult to identify
empirical evidence and the dependence of conceptualization (an
uni-dimensional or holistic and generic concept) [27].
The REINDESC database [13] was used to validate the InOV. Infor­
mation from this database is organized into a classification system based
on the type and magnitude of the event, and the accuracy and level of
impact on an intra-urban scale. The main sources of this database are
feedback provided by municipal civil defense authorities, daily reports
from the Brazilian Center for Risk and Disasters Management – CENAD,
institutional databases, news reports, and online media. Disaster
occurrence data from REINDESC have been organized since 2016. This is
the only source available that contains systematic and detailed

6
M.C. Assis Dias et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742

information related to disaster occurrence on the national scale. The
other database in Brazil (i.e. S2iD) provides information solely on the
municipal scale; thus, it is inappropriate for consideration as empirical
evidence.
The cross-referencing of data (i.e. InOV and REINDESC) was con­
ducted using vulnerability class polygons, number of victims, and
affected people following the occurrence of a landslide. The three case
studies that were selected for detailed analysis are presented in Section
4.2: i) Maua
�, Sa~o Paulo State; (ii) Jaboata
~o dos Guararapes, Pernambuco
State; and iii) Camaragibe, Pernambuco State.
4. Results and discussion
4.1. Quantification of at-risk population by vulnerability class
In 2010, the total population in Brazil was estimated at 190,732,694
inhabitants distributed throughout 5565 municipalities [40]. From this
total, 443 municipalities contained one or more landslide risk areas that
were mapped and monitored by CEMADEN; thus, this set of munici­
palities was selected to obtain the vulnerability index. This section
presents the results grouped by region in Brazil to provide a general
diagnosis of the population’s vulnerability in at-risk areas for landslide
throughout the country.
The InOV was calculated for each of the 27,116 at-risk areas within
the 443 municipalities assessed [dataset]. The use of data disaggregated
in the BATER polygons allows the construction of a vulnerability index
that serves the following purposes: i) preserves the heterogeneity of at-
risk areas; ii) allows for comparison within the same municipality, that
is, enables the identification of the most vulnerable areas based on the
exposure conditions of the households and resident population’s ca­
pacity for response. Regional studies associated with a less detailed scale
of work (i.e. a municipal scale) involve the homogenization of popula­
tion characteristics, thereby directly affecting the results of vulnerability
indices [12].
Regarding the total population of 71,711,679 residents across 443
municipalities, approximately 9% of the population was vulnerable to
landslide risk in 2010 (Table 2). The Northeast and Southeast regions
had vulnerable populations that comprised 12.9% and 8.6%, respec­
tively, of their total population in the 95 and 227 municipalities eval­
uated in each.
Among the 6,227,740 people vulnerable to landslides in the mu­
nicipalities evaluated, approximately 42% lived in areas classified as
very high vulnerability, while 35% and 23% lived in areas classified as
high and medium vulnerability, respectively.
The Southeast included the largest number of municipalities evalu­
ated (a total of 227) with 15,992 landslide risk areas and the largest
contingent of vulnerable individuals, thereby resulting in over 3.5
million people. From this total, about 38% and 37.5% of the population
lived in areas classified as very high and high vulnerability, respectively.
The second-largest vulnerable group was located in the Northeast
region, in which a total of 2,239,069 people were estimated, from which
44.4% (35.1%) of the population lived in areas classified as very high
(high) vulnerability. From the total of 70,619 vulnerable people living in
the Northern region, around 77% lived in areas classified as high
vulnerability in 42 municipalities. Concerning all areas at-risk for
disaster in Brazil, the population of residents in the Northern regions
experienced the worst living conditions [6].
In comparative terms, only 5% of municipalities in the Southeast
region were classified as having very high vulnerability to disasters,
according to the DRIB index [5]. This index considers a set of indicators
that are applied to the whole country, which allows an initial diagnosis
of vulnerability on a municipal scale. However, the results are not spe­
cifically intended to represent disaster risk scenarios at the local level.
Conversely, the InOV allows comparisons of vulnerability between
at-risk areas in the same municipality. Consequently, the results of these
comparisons are useful in municipal risk management, as they allow a
prioritization of response actions where the population is most vulner­
able to disasters. Further, the InOV was only calculated for the set of
municipalities with historic landslide occurrences in the country [39],
since not all 5565 Brazilian municipalities are affected by this type of
hazard.
The InOV results also allowed analysis to be conducted at the
municipal level. For example, the index was estimated for 18 of the 27
Brazilian state capitals (Belo Horizonte-MG, Cuiaba �-MT, Curitiba-PR,
Florian�opolis-SC, Fortaleza-CE, Jo~ ao Pessoa-PB, Macap� a-AP, Macei�o-
AL, Natal-RN, Porto Alegre-RS, Porto Velho-RO, Recife-PE, Rio de
Janeiro-RJ, Salvador-BA, Sa ~o Luís-MA, S~ ao Paulo-SP, Teresina-PI, and
Vito�ria-ES). These capitals comprised 40% of the population estimated
as being in the high vulnerability class, constituting 535,122 women and
491,124 men in 310,441 households. Capitals with over 50% of their
population in high vulnerability areas were concentrated mainly in the
Northern and Northeast regions of the country (i.e. Fortaleza, Jo~ ao
Pessoa, Macap� a, Maceio�, Natal, Porto Velho, Recife, except Cuiab� a,
Curitiba, and Vito �ria, which belonged to the Center West, South, and
Southeast, respectively). Capitals such as Salvador, S~ ao Paulo, Rio de
Janeiro, and Belo Horizonte presented the highest absolute values in
terms of the vulnerable population (IBGE & Cemaden, 2018) in very
high class, with 32%, 13%, 29% and 32%, respectively. Sa ~o Paulo, the
capital with the largest Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the country,
was estimated as having 459,088 people in 1202 areas at-risk for
landslide, of which 54.5% were classified as high vulnerability.
Additionally, the InOV database allows the analysis of municipalities
affected by disasters causing significant economic and human losses in
Brazil. For example, in November 2008, municipalities in the Itajaí
Valley of Santa Catarina State, i.e. Balnea�rio Camboriú, Benedito Novo,
Blumenau, Brusque, Camboriú, Gaspar, Ilhota, Itajaí, Itapema, Itupor­
anga, Luiz Alves, Pomerode, Presidente Getúlio, Rio do Sul, Rodeio,
Taio�, and Timbo � and Vidal Ramos registered over 1.5 billion USD in
losses caused by landslides and floods [83]. In January 2011, munici­
palities in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro State (mainly

Table 2
Estimate of vulnerable population to landslides per class and per region of Brazil.
Region Number of Total population of Vulnerable population and Population at very Population at high Population at
municipalities with municipalities with InOV percentage in relation of total high vulnerability vulnerability medium
InOV population of municipality vulnerability

North 42 3,359,994 70,619 54,741 3708 12,170

(2,1%) (77,5%) (5,2%) (17,3%)
Northeast 95 17,339,933 2,239,069 993,753 786,991 458,325
(12,9%) (44,4%) (35,1%) (20,5%)
Southeast 227 41,398,239 3,564,424 1,354,907 1,335,842 873,675
(8,6%) (38%) (37,5%) (24,5%)
South 74 8,428,996 351,667 186,063 84,429 81,175
(4,2%) (52,9%) (24%) (23,1%)
Central- 5 1,184,517 1961 1476 0 485
Western (0,2%) (75,3%) (0%) (24,7%)
Total 443 71,711,679 6,227,740 2,590,940 2,210,970 1,425,830

7
M.C. Assis Dias et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742

Petropolis, and Nova Friburgo and Tereso �polis) registered losses of Sa~o Paulo (RMSP) and is among the four municipalities in the region
approximately 1.4 billion USD [84]. After a decade, landslides still occur with the highest number of landslide and flood disasters registered in
in the municipalities of these two areas, although they are smaller in recent decades [66]. From a total of 417,064 residents in the year 2010
magnitude. According to InOV estimates, 24% of the population in the [40], it was estimated that 36,478 were exposed in the 34 at-risk areas
mapped areas of these municipalities was classified into high and very that were mapped [7]. Heavy rain was recorded in various localities
high vulnerability categories. within the municipality between February 16 and 17, 2019 (Fig. 4),
which combined with the susceptibility and the vulnerability of the
population at the at-risk areas and therefore resulted in landslides.
4.2. InOV validation analysis
Among the disasters, two events claimed four victims (children aged 1,
4, 7, and 8 years old) and occurred in the rua Ane Altomar and Avenida
As previously highlighted, the InOV was developed to support the
Cidade Maua � within the Jardim Zaíra locality. As illustrated in Fig. 4,
provision of early warnings that include detailed information about
both landslides occurred in areas classified as very high vulnerability.
vulnerable populations in landslide risk areas. Therefore, the identifi­
This scenario is characterized by generalized precipitation throughout
cation of these areas, including names of streets and neighborhoods, as
the municipality, which accumulated approximately 130 mm of rainfall
well as their spatial locations, could constitute complementary infor­
over 48 h; the at-risk areas located in Jardim Zaíra, which is where
mation for warnings sent to civil defense authorities in the context of the
deaths were reported, would have been classified as high or very high
BEWS. Before incorporating the InOV into the operation protocol, a
vulnerability, as well as other areas, such as Jardim Orato �rio, Jardim
validation procedure was executed: the relation between areas identi­
Cerqueira Leite, Jardim Rosina, Jardim Eden,
� Vila Feital and Vila Nova
fied as warranting special attention based on vulnerability classes and
Can~ aa. In these areas, it was estimated that 28,133 vulnerable people
incidents of human losses caused by landslides were evaluated.
lived in 7704 households. If the areas with high or very high vulnera­
An initial analysis was performed using landslide occurrences
bility had been mentioned in the warnings, civil defense authorities
documented in the REINDESC database and reported between January
could have concentrated their response in the most critical areas, i.e. 23
2016 and June 2019. During this period, CEMADEN issued several
at-risk areas within 1.4 km2, rather than 34 at-risk areas distributed
geodynamic risk warnings, of which 172 with landslide records of vic­
across approximately 2 km2.
tims or affected people. There were 283 landslide records occurred
within the BATER polygons. It was verified that the areas classified as
4.2.2. InOV associated with the at-risk areas in the municipality of
high and very high vulnerability comprised 76.3% of the reported oc­
Jaboata~o dos Guararapes, PE
currences, approximately 91% of the people affected, and 28 of the 35
The municipality of Jaboata ~o dos Guararapes, Pernambuco state, is
fatalities (Table 3).
located in the Metropolitan Region of Recife (RMR). During the rainy
These data show that the InOV could have been included in the
season, between the months of April and July, several occurrences of
warnings since they demonstrate an alignment of the areas character­
landslides were reported. The municipality ranks third among RMR’s
ized by high and very high vulnerability and human losses. The majority
most critical in terms of its number of landslides [66]. A total of 188,026
of the occurrences recorded during the period of analysis were associ­
people were classified as exposed out of 335 at-risk areas mapped in the
ated with small magnitude events, i.e. small landslides induced by
municipality. Between June 13 and 18, 2019, precipitation amounts of
human activity, the artificial breakdown of slopes, and/or events
243 and 285 mm were registered by eight rain gauges. This situation,
resulting in low impacts, with little or no damage and/or number of
associated with the disaster risk scenario, triggered over 150 landslides
victims reported (238 - 84%). The fact that even small landslides
in the municipality, most of which occurred in areas classified as high or
resulted in fatalities or impacted people reinforces the influence of social
very high vulnerability (Fig. 5). A landslide event occurred in Jardim
vulnerability on those events. Regarding the REINDESC records, as well
Monteverde/Dois Carneiros, which was classified as very high vulner­
as the empirical evidence from the CEMADEN monitoring activities, the
ability; consequently, the death of a 17-year-old girl and the injuries of
preponderance of low-magnitude disasters was also verified and is
four people in the same family were recorded. The early warning’s in­
aligned with the UNISDR [78], which highlighted that over half of the
clusion of vulnerability information could have indicated a total area of
deaths, as well as 90% of material losses due to disasters in the Americas
21 km2 warranting special attention and a reduction in the number of
over 22 years, were due to recurrent and small-scale events. This sce­
critical areas from 335 to 282, thus enabling better civil defense plan­
nario in Brazil, which is consistent with the global trend, highlights the
ning in response actions.
importance of investing in methodologies that include vulnerability of
the population in at-risk areas.
4.2.3. InOV associated with the at-risk areas in the municipality of
The next section presents a detailed analysis of the three case studies,
Camaragibe, PE
focusing on the results of the InOV and the records of victims and the
The municipality of Camaragibe is located in the RMR and is among
affected population. The early warnings issued by CEMADEN for these
the four municipalities with the highest number of reported landslides in
cases estimated only those households containing four residents, which
the region during the period of 1991–2018 [66]. Of the 29,026 members
were provided by the CPRM, as described by Alvala � et al. [6].
in the municipality’s population deemed as exposed to landslide risk,
approximately 80% lived in areas classified as having high or very high
4.2.1. InOV associated with at-risk areas in the municipality of Mau�
a, SP
vulnerability. In the period between June 13 and 14, 2019, the gener­
The municipality of Maua � is situated in the Metropolitan Region of
alized precipitation registered in the municipality totaled 200 mm. This
meteorological condition triggered the occurrence of landslides in
Table 3 several at-risk areas within the municipality. In particular, one landslide
Cross-checking data of landslide occurrences and human losses in according to was registered in the Bairro dos Estados and caused nine deaths in an
InOV classification, from 2016 January to 2019 June.
area classified as very high vulnerability, the locality of which could
REINDESC database records have been indicated in the early warning issued to civil defense au­
InOV Total of Total of affected Total of TOTAL thorities by Cemaden (Fig. 6). In addition to this locality, 139 risk areas
classes occurences people victims were spread over 2.4 km and were classified as very high vulnerability:
Medium 67 533 7 607 Alberto Maia, Aldeia dos Camaras, Alto do Santonio, Bairro dos Estados,
High 89 1.177 3 1.269 Joa~o Paulo II, Santana, Sa~o Pedro, S~ao Paulo, Aldeia de Baixo, Vila da
Very high 127 4.146 25 4.298 Fa
�brica, Tabatinga, Timbi, Vera Cruz, and Viana.
TOTAL 283 5.856 35 6.174
In this case, and also in that previously presented (Mau� a, SP and

8
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
Fig. 4. Spatial distribution of the vulnerability classes, landslides occurrences and precipitation registered in the rain gauges in the municipality of Mau�
between February 16 and 17, 2019.
Jaboata~o dos Guararapes, PE), the database includes other information
about the vulnerable population, e.g. total number of exposed in­
dividuals organized by gender, age, total households, that can support
the issuance of early warnings. Table 4 shows an example comprising
the municipality of Camaragibe, PE.
4.3. InOV inclusion in the BEWS
Risk knowledge is a relevant pillar in the efficiency of a EWS [76];
therefore, it is essential to understand the main risk components, i.e.
hazards, exposure and vulnerability. In the context of the BEWS, recent
studies have significantly advanced the current understanding and
ability related to forecasting, monitoring, and defining critical thresh­
olds of precipitation [46,48], as well as consolidating the observational
network. Conversely, advances in vulnerability studies focused on
at-risk areas have occurred relatively recently and only became possible
when the database produced by IBGE and Cemaden [39] became
available, as the data contained therein were essential in the develop­
ment of the InOV.
The information pertaining to vulnerability could be associated with
the weather conditions and rainfall forecasts, which are also associated
with various aspects of susceptibility characterizing the at-risk areas
mapped in a given municipality. Incorporating information about the
vulnerability of the population in at-risk areas supports the provision of
detailed disaster warnings. Thus, the InOV constitutes additional rele­
vant information related to vulnerability, contributing to the issuance of
warnings from Cemaden specialists.
9
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
a, SP,
The proposal of the conceptual model used in monitoring, including
the InOV, is illustrated in Fig. 7. A new layer of static information allows
for the indication of a given municipality’s at-risk areas, defined as those
were the conditions of a population that is vulnerable to landslides are
most critical For example, in a dynamic scenario of widespread rainfall
in a given municipality, experts can assess the most critically at-risk
areas in terms of the population’s vulnerability conditions, which
thereby allow them to determine those requiring special attention from
municipal civil defense authorities. Therefore, the explicit identification
of risk areas classified as high and very high vulnerability is relevant in
response actions. For example, for the municipality of S~ ao Paulo, the
capital of S~ao Paulo State, in which at-risk areas totaled over 16 km2, the
very high and high vulnerability areas are distributed over an area of
9.8 km2; therefore, civil defense authorities can focus their efforts on
addressing the most critical areas.
Based on the vulnerability of the population, as well as the suscep­
tibility conditions of the hazard-prone areas, it can be concluded that the
InOV results are useful in identifying areas warranting special attention,
especially when under generalized (uniformly distributed) rainfall
conditions. Under these conditions, when most at-risk areas have rain­
fall rates that approximate critical values, knowing the areas of greatest
vulnerability can be of utmost importance in strategic decision-making
(e.g. defining the areas that should take priority in the response, evac­
uating residents, activating sirens, etc.). This is especially relevant in
Brazil, since precipitation in the Southern and Southeast regions of the
country is mostly associated with synoptic scale meteorological systems,
i.e. it has a horizontal extension of over 1000 km [67,71]. These regions
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
Fig. 5. Spatial distribution of the vulnerability classes, landslides occurrences and precipitation registered in the rain gauges in the municipality of Jaboat~
Guararapes, PE, between June 13 and 18, 2019.
contain 301 municipalities (approximately 4 million vulnerable people
in landslide risk areas) for which the InOV was estimated.
Specific actions concerning BEWS can also be supported by the re­
sults obtained in this study. For example, the potential use of this syn­
thetic index in emergency preparedness and response by other pillars of
risk management and disaster response is highlighted. Preparedness
actions may include the organization of temporary shelters for the
population, especially those classified as very high and high vulnera­
bility that may be the first to be impacted by disasters. Identifying lo­
cations nearby that can be used as shelters, as well as the total number of
vulnerable people based on age, gender, and other variables, are crucial
for more effective response actions. The InOV can also be used in the
development of contingency plans, which should include information
for emergency planning, and also in identifying vulnerable and priority
groups for response actions. It is noteworthy that the development of the
InOV represents an advancement of the study developed by Alval� a et al.
[6], especially in terms of its proposition of specific actions for each
at-risk area in the municipalities evaluated. In addition, information
associated with the InOV can support other applications found in studies
focusing on disaster education, adaptation, and resilience.
5. Conclusions
This study presented a proposition and an evaluation of a vulnera­
bility population index to support the monitoring and issuance of early
warnings of disaster risk in Brazil. The InOV is based on consolidated
and widely available indicators, as presented in the literature (e.g.
10
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
ao dos
demographic census), which enables its use by other countries. This
paper conducted a quantitative analysis on vulnerability, through which
it offered a picture of the socioeconomic conditions characterizing the
period during which the data were collected. The results can also serve
as a guide for qualitative studies aiming to understand the drivers pro­
moting the vulnerability of the areas identified by the index.
The InOV was constructed using a methodology that considered four
indicators (i.e. income, age, sanitation, and population in at-risk areas).
Since the index was developed for 443 municipalities located in all re­
gions of Brazil, it was considered that if more variables were aggregated,
the index would not be applicable to all risk scenarios due to the
country’s regional diversity.
Three main differences regarding the InOV emerged in comparison
with other indexes: i) the operational purpose of applying an EWS to
identify vulnerability; ii) further refining an analysis of an intra-urban
scale comprising the municipalities, which effectively presented land­
slide risk areas; and iii) using disaster records in a compatible scale to
validate the index.
The InOV validation showed that the index can efficiently identify
vulnerable areas that should be prioritized in a disaster response on a
local scale. Locating available databases with refined scales that could
be used to validate the index was a challenge confronted in the devel­
opment of this work; therefore, the InOV validation was performed
using data from a short period (2016–2019), which were derived from
the only available national scale. Thus, the organization of detailed
occurrence data is vital for intra-urban validation.
An enhanced version of the InOV is under construction and
M.C. Assis Dias et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742

Fig. 6. Spatial distribution of the vulnerability classes, landslides occurrences and precipitation registered in the rain gauges in the municipality of Camaragibe, PE,
between June 13 and 14, 2019.

Table 4
Example of information available about the vulnerable population for the municipality of Camaragibe, PE.
Localities with high or Total of Number of children (<5 Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of
very high vulnerability Vulnerable years old) and elderly vulnerable men vulnerable households households without households without
population (>60 years old) women sanitation water supply

Alberto Maia 1539 130 744 795 445 291 16

147
Aldeia dos Camaras 289 27 135 154 95 52 67
21
Alto do Santonio 730 69 355 375 211 154 3
83
Bairro dos Estados 6022 499 2816 3206 1750 1196 168
558
Jo~
ao Paulo II 65 3 34 11 16 16 6
4
Santana 712 65 331 381 200 154 64
55
S~
ao Pedro, S~
ao Paulo, 6040 490 2806 3234 1827 1182 263
Aldeia de baixo, Vila 598
da F�
abrica
Tabatinga 4407 405 2124 2283 1240 1128 57
372
Timbi 1828 148 928 900 534 492 17
171
Vera Cruz 1502 160 735 767 421 349 87
99
Viana 101 6 48 53 25 25 1
14

11
M.C. Assis Dias et al.
Fig. 7. Proposal of the conceptual model of the monitoring and early warnings including the InOV.
incorporates dynamic aspects (i.e. precipitation), as well as suscepti­
bility characteristics, to enable the advanced analysis of disaster risk
scenarios. An InOV specifically related to hydrological risks is in
development. It primarily aims to conduct a complete analysis on a
national scale focused on geodynamic risks, which cause disasters in
Brazil.
Future endeavors include updating the InOV based on the next
Population Census, thereby allowing the comparison of inter-census
data. This would constitute an important advancement in the current
knowledge regarding disaster risk, which could support studies aiming
to better understand the trajectories and components of population
vulnerability based on temporal analysis.
In conclusion, this paper provides an initial contribution towards
addressing the challenge of incorporating socio-economic information
into a disaster early warning system on an intra-urban scale. The
development and validation of the InOV demonstrated the potential
impact of this information in the context of the Brazilian Early Warning
System.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
We thank National Council for Scientific and Technological
12
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 49 (2020) 101742
Development (CNPq) for financial support for the first author, and INCT-
Climate Change Project Phase 2 (Grant CNPq 465501/2014-1/Public
call MCTI/CNPQ/CAPES/FAPESP N� 16/2014). This paper is a contri­
bution of the Brazilian Research Network on Global Climate Change
FINEP/Rede CLIMA Grant 01.13.0353-00.
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