Middle East Crisis:

KSA V/s Iran: Both are geo strategic rivals in the Persian Gulf (those
countries that surround the Persian sea are called Persian Gulf
countries). KSA has in this region status quo power whereas Iran is
a revisionist power meaning Iran is revivalist and resurging. Iran
KSA are arch rivals in Yemen. There Iran supports Houthi rebels
whereas KSA supports the government. In Yemen the fault lines
include the tribal division i.e. southern tribes and northern tribes
are divided. Northern tribes have had a hold and control over the
capital Sana whereas the southern tribes have remain exploited.
Since 2001 under the leadership of Bdr u din Alhouthi the southern
tribes started armed resistance because they have not been
receiving their shares since the northern tribes have had a hold over
the benefits from the state and hold over decision making bodies. In
addition there is sectarian divide. Majorly there are Sunni but Shia
are sizeable minority mostly consisting of Zaidi Shia. They are
mostly of malik school of thought whereas Sunni are of salafi school
of thought. However in the past they have never been in the past
until 2014. The ongoing civil war in Yemen is driven by sectarian
factors i.e. sectarianism. The third fault line is Ali Abdullah Saleh the
ex-president vs Mansoor Hadi the current president. In 2011 an
agreement was signed between the 2 which state that Ali Abdullah
would step down and Hadi would become the president but for 2
years after which Hadi was to conduct elections which he did not. In
short he violated the agreement and continued himself as the
president due to which Ali Abdullah turned against Mansoor Hadi.
The Houthi rebels made an alliance with Ali Abdullah and they
started a civil war against Mansoor Hadi. They took over Sana the
capital of Yemen due to which Hadi had to run away to KSA. Hadi
acquired military support from GCC (KSA, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain
and UAE) against the Houthi rebels. KSA supported Hadi
government financially also. Hadi with this support started a war
against the Houthi rebels. Meanwhile on the other hand Iran is
supporting Houthi rebels terming them as freedom fighters
whereas KSA termed them as terrorists. Yemen is of great
importance to both countries:
• Long shared border with KSA and on both sides of the border
Shia population resides. Hence in simple words increasing
presence and influence of Iran in Yemen endangers the peace
and stability of KSA as Iran influences the Shia population of
middle east and now has more chances to support them by
supporting the Houthi’s and the Shia population of KSA that is
energy enriched region. Also Houthi rebels are attacking the oil
fields in KSA e.g. in 2019 there was an attack on 2 oil fields of
KSA by these rebels. It is estimated that 50% of oil production
in KSA cut down because of these attacks. Globally more than
5% decline was there in the availability of oil in the
international market.
• Strait of Aden passes near Yemen. Strait is known as part of
sea which is narrow. In strait of Aden almost 70% of oil trade
by KSA is through this strait.
In Syria the situation is vice-versa. The government of Assad is
supported by Iran whereas the GCC (gulf council commission)
supports Al-Nusra and free Syrian army (FSA). Hence the rebels
are being supported by KSA and GCC. Iran terms these rebels as
terrorists. The fault lines in Syria were that were being exploited
are:
• Shia Sunni divide is the biggest problem. Here around 65%
population is Sunni whereas around 20% is Shia. Hence
there is sectarian division. However this never got
converted into a civil war because the policies adopted by
the Syrian government were secular policies. However
since 2011 there has been irreversible Shia Sunni divide i.e.
it has become deep.
• Bashar Ul Assad who has been the president of the country
since 2000. Before him his father was the president from
1970-2000. He belonged to Shia sect. In 2000 when Assad
came into power he promised economic, political and
social reforms which he didn’t. In the meanwhile there was
an Arab uprising which started from Tunisia, Egypt, Libya
and Syria. They kept on demanding reforms. Bashar ul
Assad used excessive power against them instead of
engaging them. Resultantly armed resistance increased.
• Most of the Kurds are in Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Iran and
Armenia respectively. There have been separatist
movements by them. Kurds are a continuous belts but have
been divided into 5 countries. It is an ethnic group. Most of
the resistance by this group has been seen in Iraq because
 they have gotten an autonomous region there. The same
are being tried in the rest of the countries.
The importance of Syria for both these countries are:
• Syria is a supply route/line for the supplies from Iran to
Hezbollah and Lebanon. The route is through Iran, Iraq,
and Syria to Lebanon. Hezbollah is in Lebanon. There has
been military and financial support to Hezbollah through
this route from Iran. KSA, Israel and USA want to cut this
route because Hezbollah is fighting against Israel. KSA
wants to cut this line because Hezbollah has been a threat
to the KSA supported government in Lebanon. Hence it is of
great importance to them and will only be possible when
Assad is dethroned.
• KSA wants the regime change in Syria. Iran, Hezbollah and
Russia do not want a regime change. KSA wants a regime
change because Assad is Shia having a tilt towards Iran.
KSA wants elections in Syria because it is a Sunni dominant
country and once elections are held automatically Sunni
will come in power and once that happens there will be
curtailing of the influence of Iran. However Assad
government has been prevailing and FSA has faced defeat.
The 3rd is Lebanon. The fault lines in Lebanon are:
• The divide is between 3 lines i.e. Sunni, Shia and Christians
but Sunni are in majority. There has been parliamentary
form of government in which PM heads the government
 and is the chief executive. The power division has been
such that the PM has been Sunni, President Christian
whereas major ministries have been given to Shia.
• Government vs Hezbollah. Hezbollah a non-state actor is a
jihadist organization fighting against Israel. Also Hezbollah
has a political aspect. It is not only an armed group but
also has a political version having sizeable representation
in the parliament of Lebanon. The government in Lebanon
has not been successful in overcoming the Hezbollah factor
and has become a powerful entity. The government has no
co adopted the policy of peaceful existence with Hezbollah.
The government has been supported by KSA, GCC and the
west whereas Hezbollah has been supported by Iran.
• Like other Arab countries Lebanon is facing an uprising
because of socio-economic and political reasons. There are
no jobs, government has been corrupt, there has been no
socio economic reforms and there has not been any
political reforms. The uprising in Lebanon and Iraq is being
termed Arab Spring 2. In Lebanon the uprising is because
of domestic reasons on one side such as lack of reforms
and on the other side regional and international factors.
Iran is supporting the uprising in Lebanon against the
government. This uprising will affect the current structure
of the government. Iran is trying to form an Iran supported
government.
In Iraq the demographic division is such that the Shia population
is bigger in size followed by Sunni, Kurd and Christian. In 2003
US there was US military intervention in Iraq which toppled
down Saddam’s government. Its biggest beneficiary was Iran
because in 70’s and 80’s the Iran-Iraq war which happened also
termed as gulf war Saddam Hussain was the arch rival of Iran.
Hence Iran was contained by Saddam government from
entering into Middle East as Iraq was the only territory through
which they could enter. In 2008 there was an end of Saddam
government and for the first time there was a Shia dominant
government under Noor ul Malaki as Shia were dominant. This
was the first time that elections happened. Baghdad that is
capital of Iraq if not friendly at least became neutral and with
the passage of time friendly relationship was established
because of sectarian affinity. Also in Iraq the writ of the state
declined resulting in Iran finding ground access to Syria via Iraq.
This resulted in revival of Iran.
In 2011 in Bahrain, which is a Shia dominant country ruled by
Sunni King, there was an uprising which was suppressed by KSA.
Iran has a territorial claim on Bahrain. Hence Iran is making
routes to Middle East resulting in its revival.
Iran became the major beneficiary of Arab uprising. There was
uprising in Iraq, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Syria, and Yemen and so
on. There were multiple reasons for this out of which the
biggest was unemployment i.e. economic reason. People also
wanted political reforms i.e. end of dictatorship and proper
election of government and social reforms i.e. freedom of
media. Media played a major role in this uprising. The young
boy who set himself on fire that resulted in the starting of this
uprising got highly circulated in the media. Regional powers like
Iran and KSA also played a huge role in this uprising.
International powers like US and Russia also played a huge role
especially US. This all resulted in the rise of non-state actors and
decline of the writ of the state. Hence Iran got opportunities to
increase their influence. They also got a chance through P5 + 1
deal a.k.a JCPOA. This resulted in Iran becoming a major
beneficiary. In 2015 the deal was signed by 5 Permanent
members of UNSC and Germany on Civil Nuclear technology.
Iran had to reduce enrichment of Uranium to 2.34%. Before this
Iran had taken their enrichment to minimum 30%. In short they
had to shorten their refinement of Uranium because more
refined more reactive and more energy production. Iran was
allowed to use Uranium for civilian purposes such as electricity
purposes but not for military purposes such as making bombs.
The already enriched uranium that Iran has in stored form
should not be kept in Iran and should be transported to Iran and
Turkey. Iran will allow international watch dogs such as IAEA to
inspect and watch the performance of Iran and submit a report
quarterly on how Iran is performing. On the basis of that
sanctions would be removed from Iran. Hence this deal
benefited Iran as there were revival of economy. Iran had
sanctions on export of Uranium which led to a loss of 120
Billion-ish $ annually. Iran has remained the major exporter of
Persian Carpet along with Turkey. It has also remained a major
exporter of stones and so on. However there were sanctions on
Iran. In addition Iran had 46 Billion $ foreign reserves which
were frozen. So such severe were the sanctions which has now
started to be removed step wise. There is also now economic
revival and was now in the position to provide funds to its allies
and proxies in the Middle East leading to the increase of its
influence in Middle East. Before there were UN sanction on Iran
due to which it became internationally isolated. Slowly when
the sanctions began to be removed they started interacting
with the international community. This all lead to revival of
Iran. General Qasim Sulimani led this policy of revival
movement and was killed by a drone strike. Trump withdrew
from JCPOA despite it being a violation on behalf of USA as per
rule. The deal was to either continue or vanish away on the
basis of the report being submitted by IAEA after 3 months. Iran
was complying with the terms and conditions. No country was
allowed to move out uni-laterally. Trump backed out because
the deal provided Iran with an opportunity to increase its
influence in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon. This was a setback
to USA and its allies in the region i.e. KSA, UAE and Israel. The
second major reason was that Iran bluffs the world. It is buying
time to stabilize its economy. Also it has delayed its
nuclearization policy not stopped it. Trump also stated that Iran
has developed missiles having the capacity to carry nuclear
warheads. If it’s serious in decreasing the enrichment of
uranium why is it building missiles? This all is resulting in
setback to Iran. All the USA companies stopped trading with
Iran. USA forced multi-national companies to evacuate Iran or
face USA sanctions due to which they left irrespective of which
country they were from. Thirdly USA pressurized its allies like
Europe, India and Japan and so on to stop its trade with Iran or
decrease it. They stopped their energy trade or imports and
moved towards Middle East for this purpose. Hence the Iranian
economy that has already been under tremendous pressure was
moving towards revival and was in the first phase when it was
again faced with sanctions. There is bankruptcy, unavailability
of jobs, loss of value of money and so on. This is all because of
Trumps decision. However China and Russia increased their
economic engagements with Iran. China announced 470 Billion
$ + investment in Iran. Hence now that the sanctions are in
decline and the sanctions that remain are USA motivated
sanctions there is space for both China and Iran not to listen to
USA and that’s what they are doing. If they have suffered a
setback at one end they have received momentum for revival at
the other end. However it should be kept in mind that there are
chances of war and attack on Iran. USA naval fleet that is the 5th
naval fleet has come closer to the territorial water boundaries
of Iran and are stationed in Gulf Sea and are threatening of
surgical strikes in Iran on Iran nuclear installations. Israel has
been convincing the world US and Europe to attack Iran
especially Nathen yahoo. Thirdly US drone attack killed General
Qasim Sulemani in Iraq. Iran retaliated by attacking 2 US air
bases in Iraq in 2020. Additionally Iran backed Houthi rebels
who attacked 2 oil fields in KSA. They also targeted Japanese oil
ship. These sort of skirmishes have been there and there is a
possibility they can be converted into a war. However on the
other hand there is less chances of direct war because Iran has
a strong retaliating capacity and can target Israel, KSA, 5th
Naval fleet of USA and can sabotage the smooth functioning of
trade in the strait of Hormuz as Iran controls this strait. Also an
attack on Iran would mean war in the Persian Gulf. The world
economic engine is dependent on Persian Gulf. Industries and
transport would stop and every country will suffer as they are
overwhelmingly dependent on Persian Gulf. There is a chance
that policy of sanctions would continue and that is what is
happening. Also threat diplomacy will continue i.e. fix yourself
or we will attack.
Iran China deal: India had a policy of connecting central Asia
policy of India. They wanted to access central Asian Republics
and Afghanistan through Iran bypassing Pakistan. This was the
main aim. Its major points were construction of railway track in
Iran, the construction of Chaghbahar sea port of Iran, Zarranj
Dilaram road that connects Afghanistan with Iran and so on.
However Iran cancelled the deal with India because India used
delaying tactics for investment. India did not invest much in the
project. The policy of connect central Asia came in 2006 and the
total investment till now in Chaghbahar project was only 200
million $. The railway project remained just a concept. The
reason for this were UN sanctions, USA pressure as India is the
strategic partner of USA. Also India had an increasing tilt
towards Middle East. Majorly the buyers of oil from Iran have
been China and India. India stopped this and started ties with
Qatar, KSA and Abu Dhabi. These were the reasons because of
which Iran cancelled deal with India and signed it with China.
China will now build Chaghbahar seaport. China would build the
railway track in Iran. Also China would build motorways and
highways in Iran. Also there is huge investment in energy sector.
Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Russia and Azerbaijan are
being invested by China in energy sector respectively. The
regional implications of this will be that:
• Gwadar Chaghbahar rivalry would reduce. The rivalry was
that the future trade from Central Asia and Afghanistan to
Arabian Sea should be through either Pakistan or Iran.
That was the competition which was exacerbated by Indian
factor because India was the investor in Chaghbahar
whereas China was in Gwadar. Now it will decrease as in
both sea ports investor is China which would not allow
neither accommodate the 2 seaports to become rival
seaports. It would rather take initiative’s to make the 2
seaports as sister seaports. The step has been taken in this
direction as markets are being planned to be made on the
borders of Iran and Pakistan.
• India’s presence in Afghanistan will decline. Both China
and Pakistan want this and this is what will happen. This
will automatically decrease the security threats to Pakistan
as RAW has been using Afghanistan as a launching pad for
 terrorist attacks on Pakistan. There will also be increased
influence of China and Pakistan in Iran.
• The world is heading towards Regionalism. Turkey, Russia,
China, Iran and Pakistan are becoming a bloc and the
cancellation of deal with India and signing it with China is a
huge step in this direction.
• Iran has had pro India policies in the past due to which
Pakistan has suffered a lot. Now since the deal is cancelled
there will be automatically decline in pro Indian policies.