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Saudi/Iran Rivalry Case Study

of Lebanon and Yemen

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 Contents
 Introduction
 Background and Regional Engagements
 KSA’S involvement in Lebanon and Yemen
 Iran’s involvement in Lebanon and Yemen
 Power struggle in Lebanon and Yemen
 Analysis and conclusion

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Introduction

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 Saudi Iran Rivalry
.

 Regional rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran are currently directly or

indirectly engaged in a number of Middle East conflicts, as
well as opposing sides of the global oil trade.
- Religious divisions
- Power struggle
- Economic competition
OIL PRODUCTION
• Saudi Arabia:
Based on OPEC's data the oil-rich kingdom is the largest
exporter of petroleum, with its oil and gas sector contributing
about half of its GDP.

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 Cont’d
In addition to petroleum, Saudi also exports natural gas, iron
ore, gold and copper.
This spurred Riyadh into action as it attempted to expand and
diversify the Saudi economy.  
• Iran:
Decades of economic sanctions on Iran have forced it to adopt
a multi-faceted approach. Nevertheless, oil continues to
account for almost 80 percent of all exports.
According to Global Firepower, Iran currently produces more
than four million barrels a day, 1.8 million of which are for
domestic consumption.
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Background and Regional
Engagements

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 BACKGROUND:
 The Saudi-Iran rivalry can be labelled as a ‘Cold War’, as
no direct confrontation between the two states has ever
taken place.
 Proxy wars in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon and political
uprisings in Egypt and Bahrain are known to have Iranian
and Saudi support.
 In Bahrain, Saudi troops were seen putting down the anti-
state protests; in the civil war in Syria, the two states
support the opposing sides.
 BACKGROUND:
 Ideological and religious differences are a huge part of the
reasons leading to the continued hatred between the two
states, but this is not all, as the two sects have co-existed for
centuries.
 BACKGROUND:

 As religious division is one of the main factor, the foreign

policies of both the states have them aligned with the states
with which they share their theologies.
 The Saudi-Iran rivalry can be better understood if seen
through the lens of power struggle for hegemony in the Middle
East and beyond.
 A security dilemma exists between the two states and the
inescapable element of uncertainty is also there. As the
security dilemma is a product of present and past relations, in
this case it was produced after the Iranian Revolution, when
Iran changed its identity and Saudi Arabia started perceiving it
differently.
 BACKGROUND:

 In the Iranian Revolution in 1979, the pro-Western leader was

toppled down and the Shia authorities took control.
 This concerned Saudi Arabia to such as extend that is resulted
in the form of even stronger alliance with the Sunni states and
the formation of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
 Later on, in the 1980s, the tension between the two states
escalated and Saudi Arabia suspended its diplomatic ties for
three years.
 BACKGROUND:
(THE ARAB SPRING)
 Then in 2003, when Saddam Hussein was toppled from power, the
entire regional dynamics were shaken. Saudis could no longer rely
on Saddam; and the Iranians supporting the Shia government in
Iraq infused fear of greater regional intentions in Saudis.
 In the late 2010s, the anti-government uprisings in the Middle East,
known as the Arab Spring took place.
 Both the countries started supporting their ally countries, Iran
supported Syria, and Saudi Arabia supported its opposing side.
 This resulted in demise of many regimes in the Middle Eastern
region, after which both Iran and Saudi Arabia started to strengthen
and support their local political groups, so that they take over the
fallen regimes and help them increase influence in the region.
REGIONAL ENGAGEMENTS:
 As I mentioned earlier, the main reason of rivalry between Iran
and Saudi Arabia is power struggle, they strive for influence in
the region.
 Despite the efforts to get the two states to bring peace in their
relations and among the region, with the severed diplomatic
ties between them, the chances of success seem far-flung.
 Both the states refuse to have peaceful talks because it would
be against their interests, as both want to be the regional
hegemons.
 REGIONAL ENGAGEMENTS:
 Although no direct confrontation has taken place between the
two states, both have been engaged in proxy wars all over the
region.
 Iranian critics state that Iran is intent on establishing itself or
its proxies across the region and gain control of the region
from Iran to the Mediterranean.
 Whereas, Saudi Arabia is at its best trying to contain the rising
influence of Iran in the region.
 Among the proxy wars that rival states are playing against
each other, there is war in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.
REGIONAL ENGAGEMENTS:
 REGIONAL ENGAGEMENTS:
 The strategic rivalry has spread across the region (eg:
Bahrain and Syria)
 In Lebanon, Hezbollah is an ally of Iran, who leads a strong
political bloc and an armed force. It is commonly believed
that Saudi forces forced Lebanese Prime Minister, Saad
Hariri, who they supported, to resign on involvement of
Hezbollah in the regional conflicts.
 In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has accused Iran of supplying
missiles which were fired t the Saudi territory, and it has
created a new front of confrontation between Iran and Saudi
Arabia.
KSA’s Proxies in Lebanon and
Yemen

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Proxies of Kingdom
of Saudi Arabia

YEME LEBON
N AN
 YEMEN

 Yemen is situated at the southern end of the Arabian

Peninsula in Western Asia

 It is the second-largest Arab sovereign state in the

peninsula

 Occupies 203,850 square miles

ETHNIC ARAB 92%

GROUP
SOMALIS 3.7%
AFRO-ARAB 1.1%
INDO-PAKISTANI 1%
OTHER 1.4%
The Yemeni Civil War is an ongoing conflict
that began in 2015 between two factions

 Hadi led  Houthi
Yemeni armed
governm movemen
ent t
SAUDI ARABIA IRAN

Hadi led Houthi
Yemeni armed
government movement,

1. POWER STRUGGLE
2. INFLUENCE
 Cont’d

 The conflict has been widely seen as an extension of the Saudi-Iran proxy
conflict and as a means to combat Iranian influence in the region

 A coalition has been led by Saudi Arabia launched military operations by

using air strikes to restore the former Yemeni government

 The international community has sharply condemned the Saudi Arabian-led

bombing campaign, which has included widespread bombing of civilian areas

• The bombing campaign has killed or injured an estimated

17,729 civilians as of March 2019 according to the Yemen Data
Project

The vicious civil war has left tens of thousands dead and now
13million are on the brink of starvation
 LEBAN
Lebanon is
ON
located on the
eastern shore of
the Mediterranean
Sea

It consists of a
narrow strip of
territory and is one
of the world’s
smaller sovereign
states

The capital
is Beirut
 CONFLIC
 Revolution T
ary Guards
KSA
 Ayatoll
ah
Khomei
ni

RULING
HEZBULLAH GOVERNMENT
"Party of Allah"  SAAD HARIRI

It is a Shia Islamist political
party and militant group
based in Lebanon
Hezbollah acts as a proxy
for Iran in the ongoing Iran–
Israel proxy conflict
Iran Proxies in Yemen and
Lebanon
 Iran Proxies in Yemen
 For three years, Yemen, the Arab world's poorest country, has
been wracked by a bloody war between the Houthi rebels and
supporters of Yemen's internationally recognised government. 
 The Houthis rose to prominence in the aftermath of the fall of the
Zaydi imamate (which ruled northern Yemen from 897 AD until
1962 AD) and at the time of the Islamic Revolution in Iran and
the growth of Saudi-backed salafism in northern Yemen.
 The Houthi movement, named after the family it is associated
with, emerged from Yemen's northern province Saada, bordering
Saudi Arabia, and has been locked in an increasingly complex
war. Backed by the US, the Saudi-led coalition have been their
most recent and main enemy.
 Cont’d
 The Houthi movement refers not only to the Houthi family (a
clan from the Marran Mountains within Sa’ada province) but
also to a broader tribal and sectarian alliance operating mainly
in northern Yemen.
 The Houthi family are adherents to the Zaydi branch of Islam,
which venerates Ali as the legitimate heir to the prophet.
Zaydis are doctrinally closest to Fiver Shi`a Muslims (as
opposed to the more prevalent Twelver Shiism dominant in
Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon).
 Houthis are lead by Abdul Malik al-Houthi.
 Cont’d
 Saudi's western allies have accused Iran of directing, arming
and financially supporting the movement, an accusation Houthi
supporters frequently deny.
 Tehran's rhetoric has been firmly pro-Houthi. Experts point to
Iranian designs and technology being used in Houthi missile
attacks and drone designs, while various sources have claimed
missiles and small arms are shipped overland through Oman,
though the evidence chain is patchy.
 The UN Panel of Experts on Yemen found Iran has supplied the
Houthis with donations of fuel to raise revenue for their
campaign, but no direct financial or military link has been
found.
 IRAN PROXIES IN LEBANON
 Iran and Lebanon have diplomatic relations, with embassies in
each other countries. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the two
countries have deepened relations among controversy in Lebanon.
 Hezbollah is backed by Saudi Arabia's regional rival Iran, with
whom relations have been worse. The two nations are on
opposing sides in conflicts in Syria and Yemen as well.
 Hezbollah originated within the Shia block of Lebanese  society.
According to a United States CIA World Factbook estimate, Shias
comprise 28.4 percent of Lebanon's population, predominating in
three areas of Lebanon: the South, Beirut and its environs, and the
northern Beqaa valley and Hermel region.
 Cont’d
 Hezbollah, a Shia political organisation with an armed wing,
fights in neighbouring Syria to support the government of
President Bashar al-Assad.
 Hassan Nasrallah became the leader of Hezbollah after the
Israelis assassinated the previous leader, Musawi, in 1992.
 Saad Hariri’s resignation as Lebanese prime minister blaming
Iran for causing "disorder and destruction" in Lebanon, he
lashed out at Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic's main ally in the
country, as "Iran's arm“.
 In the aftermath of the resignation, Hezbollah leader Hassan
Nasrallah expressed incredulity at Hariri's speech and accused
Riyadh of forcing him to step down.
Power Struggle in Lebanon and
Yemen
 Power Struggle in Lebanon
• Both Rivals have long standing interests in Lebanon.

• Iran support Hezbollah and Saudis on their part support Hariri

a Sunni ally of Kingdom.

• The struggle for power became intense after the assassination

of Rafiq Hariri.

• Both countries found their natural allies in march 8 and 14

alliances.
.
 Cont’d
• On November 4 2017 Saad Hariri resigned from his position
from Saudi Arabia.

• Recent elections were held on 6 may 2018 in which Iranian

backed parties secured mores seats. President Aoun and
speaker Nabbih Beri also have Iranian support.

• Saudi Arabia by giving economic aid tried its best to pull out
Lebanon from Iran orbits but Iran still have a strong control
over the Lebanon.
 Power Struggle in Yemen
• Yemen shares a roughly 1,800km border with the Saudi kingdom
any turbulence will directly affect the Saudis.

• Yemen revolution resulted in the fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh a long

standing Saudi ally.

• A national dialogue was instituted to address the future of Yemen

after Saleh It proposed a federal solution with six provinces with
some autonomy.

• The Zaydi-dominated north got two landlocked entities, which the

Houthis argued was gerrymandered against them.
 Cont’d
• This failure of political transition resulted in conflict. Houthis
shook hand with the former president and started their struggle
against the internationally recognized Hadi government.

• Soon rebels captured Sanaa the capital city of Yemen and

started direct traffic between Tehran and Sanaa. Iran
announced subsidies for the rebels which raised concerns in
the mind of Saudis.

• They intervened with the coalition and started attacking rebels

positions.
 Cont’d
• Rebels in retaliation used drones and missiles against the
Saudi cities and critical military installations. These missiles
and drones are said to be provided by Iran to Houthis.
• This on going conflict gave an opportunity to the Iran for
increasing its influence in the Arabian peninsula which it
capitalized.
• The poor execution and blockade of Yemen resulted in the
emergence of humanitarian crisis due to which Saudi Arabia is
facing a lot of pressure.
• Iran is clearly on the winning side here as it has nothing to
loose in the conflict.
Iranian Involvement in Yemen
Conclusion

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 Conclusion and critical analysis
 To achieve peaceful co-existence, however, both regional
powers need to make significant compromises .
 One thing is sure, however: peaceful co-existence can only
work if Tehran scales down its interference in the affairs of
Arab states and Riyadh accepts that Iran also has a say in
regional issues.
 Iran should not expect to be allowed to continue controlling
the fates of Iraq and Lebanon through affiliated militias or
supporting the Houthis in their assault on Yemen's legitimate
authority .

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 Cont’d
 Saudi Arabia can no longer count on Washington's direct
assistance in the event of a confrontation with Iran.
 It says at least 12 million children are caught up in the
fighting and need outside help.
MILITARY SPENDING
 In the past five years, most Middle Eastern countries have
been directly or indirectly involved in armed conflicts. About
32 percent of documented weapon imports worldwide are to
this region.

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 Cont’d
 In the past five years, most Middle Eastern countries have
been directly or indirectly involved in armed conflicts. About
32 percent of documented weapon imports worldwide are to
this region.
 Saudi Arabia has a significant budget for military spending,
and although Iran's is harder to determine, according to Radio
Farda, it is estimated at $7bn annually.
 Saudi Arabia, in turn, spends about $56bn. This does not
including recent deals with Spain and the United States worth
an estimated $3bn.  

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 Cont’d
 Based on SIPRI's 2017 report, Iran imported four air defense
systems from Russia that are excluded from the arms embargo
imposed on the country.
 The United States remains the Gulf region's main supplier.
Nearly 50 percent of the UK's arms exports go to Saudi
Arabia, according to SIPRI. Most of these imports are used by
Saudi Arabia in its ongoing war in Yemen.
 The overwhelming majority of Saudi arms imports are from
the US and European countries.

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 Cont’d
 As per reports of UN and other human rights organizations :
 Yemen is facing the worst of worst humanitarian crisis with
half of its population count on aid of foreign countries.
 1,0000 people have died since Saudi led coalition took place ,
million have been displaced , hundreds of thousands children
people facing drought and famine etc.
 The world community needs to shun their hypocrisy and get
those punished openly who are violating human rights.

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 Thank You!!!

Open For Questions

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