Pakistan Nuclear Forces:

2018
Timeline
• Report Detail
• Introduction
• Nuclear Policy Developments
• Fissile Material
• Nuclear-Capable aircraft
• Land based ballistic missiles
• Ground and air-launched cruise missiles
• Sea-launched cruise missiles
• Conclusion
Report Details
• The report is published by Bulletin of atomic scientists, a non-profit
organisation, founded by Eugene Rabinowitch.
• The report is written by Hans M. Kristensen, Robert S. Norris and Julia
Diamond.
• Hans M. Kristense, Julia Diamond and Robert S. Norris are working at
federation of atomic scientists (FAS), a non-profit organisation.
Introduction
• Pakistan continues to expand its nuclear arsenal with more warheads,
more delivery systems.
• Analysis of a large number of commercial satellite images of Pakistani
army garrisons and air force bases shows what appear to be mobile
launchers and underground facilities that might be related to nuclear
forces.
• We estimate that Pakistan now has a nuclear weapons stockpile of
140 to 150 warheads.
Nuclear Policy Developments
• At the 2017 NCA meeting,according to Pakistan ISPR press release,
the Nuclear Command Authority “reiterated Pakistan’s policy of
developing and maintaining Full Spectrum Deterrence, in line with the
policy of Credible Minimum Deterrence and avoidance of arms race,”.
• The December 2017 meeting emphasized that Pakistan strives
for“peaceful coexistence in [SouthAsia] and will endeavor to work
with its neighbors to ensure strategic stability there.
Fissile Material
• As of the end of 2016, the International Panel on Fissile Materials
estimated that Pakistan had an inventory of approximately 3,400
kilograms (kg) of weapon-grade (90 percent enriched) highly enriched
uranium (HEU), and about 280 kg of weapon-grade plutonium.
• This material is theoretically enough to produce between 236 and 283
warheads.
• Assuming that each first-generation implosion-type warhead’s solid
core uses either 15 to 18 kg of weapon-grade HEU or 5 to 6 kg of
plutonium.
Nuclear-Capable Aircraft
• Pakistan probably assigns a nuclear strike mission to select F-16A/B
and Mirage III/V fighter squadrons.
• The F-16 was probably the first aircraft in the nuclear role, but the
Mirage quickly joined the mission.
• F-16 fighters are deployed in Mushaf and Shahbaz airbase.
• Mirage fighters are deployed in Masroor and Rafiqui airbase.
Delivery Vehicles
Type: Number Year Range Warhead× Number
Aircraft of deployed Kilometer yield of
launchers (kilotons) warheads

F-16 ~ 24 1998 1600 km 1 × bomb or

Ra'ad
~12

Mirage ~ 12 1998 2100 km 1 × bomb or

Ra’ad
~24
III/V
Sub-total ~ 36 ~36
Land-Based Ballistic Missiles
• Pakistan appears to have six currently operational nuclear-capable
land-based ballistic missiles
1. Short-range NASR (Hatf-9).
2. Short-range Abdali (Hatf-2).
3. Ghaznavi (Hatf-3).
4. Shaheen-1 (Hatf-4).
5. Medium-range Ghauri (Hatf-5).
6. Shaheen-2 (Hatf-6).
Cont’d
• Three other nuclear-capable ballistic missiles are under development:
1. The Medium-range Shaheen-1A,
2. Shaheen-3.
3. The MIRVed Ababeel.
• The missiles are possibly deployed in eight or nine missile garrisons,
including four or five along the Indian border for short-range systems
(Babur, Ghaznavi, Shaheen-1, NASR) and three or four other garrisons
further inland for medium-range systems (Shaheen-2 and Ghauri).
Delivery Vehicles
Type: Number of Year deployed Range Warhead × Number of
Land-Based launchers (Kilometers) yield warheads
Missiles ( kilotons )
Nasr ~ 24 2013 70 km 1 × 5-12 kt ~ 24
Ghaznavi ~ 16 2015 300 km 1 × 5-12 kt ~ 16
Abdali 10 2004 200 km 1 × 5-12 kt ~ 10
Shaheen-1 ~ 16 2003 750 km 1 × 5-12 kt ~ 16
Shaheen-1A N/A In development 900 km 1 × 10- 40 kt N/A
Ghauri ~ 24 2003 1250 km 1 × 10- 40 kt ~ 24
Shaheen-2 ~ 12 2014 1500 km 1 × 10- 40 kt ~ 12
Shaheen-3 N/A In development 2750 km 1 × 10- 40 kt N/A
Ababeel N/A N/A 2200 km MIRV capable N/A
Sub-total ~ 102 ~ 102
Ground And Air-Launched Cruise Missiles
• Pakistan continues to develop versions of both the ground-launched
Babur (Hatf-7) and the airlaunched Ra’ad (Hatf-8) nuclear-capable
cruise missiles.
• Both missiles are subsonic, dualcapable cruisemissiles.
• The Pakistani government says the Babur and Ra’ad systems both
have “stealth capabilities” and “pinpoint accuracy,” and “a low-
altitude, terrain-hugging missile with high maneuverability”.
• The Ra’ad missiles can be launched from Mirage fighters.
Delivery Vehicles
Type: Number of Year deployed Range Warhead × Number of
Air and launchers (Kilometers) yield warheads
ground ( kilotons )
launched
cruise missiles
Babar-1 ~ 12 2014 350 km 1 × 5-12 kt ~ 12
Glcm
Babar-2 N/A In development 700 km 1 × 5-12 kt N/A
Glcm
Ra’ad-1 N/A 2017 350 km 1 × 5-12 kt N/A
Alcm
RA'AD-2 N/A In development N/A 1 × 5-12 kt N/A
ALCM
Sub-total ~ 12 ~ 12
Sea-Launched Cruise Missiles
• Pakistan is also developing a sea-launched version of the Babur
known as Babur-3 and the weapon is still in development.
• The Pakistani government says the Babur-3 is “capable of delivering
various types of payloads that will provide Pakistan with a Credible
Second Strike Capability.
• The Babur-3 will most likely be deployed on the diesel-electric
Agosta-90b class submarines.
Delivery Vehicles
Type Number Year Range
(Kilometers)
Warhead×yield
( kilotons )
Number of
warheads
of deployed
launchers

Babar-3 N/A In development 450 km 1 ×5-12 kt N/A

Slcm
Sub-total N/A
Conclusion
• With several delivery systems in development, four plutonium
production reactors, and its uranium enrichment facilities expanding,
however, Pakistan has a stockpile that will likely increase further over
the next 10 years.
• Thes size of the increase will depend on many factors.
• The key factors will be, how many nuclear-capable launchers Pakistan
plans to deploy, and how much the Indian nuclear arsenal grows.