Subject: The Yemen issue

The Issue: Eventhough the civil war erupted in 2015, the issue itself
has its roots that go back more than two decades. The united Yemen we
know of was formed in 1990 with the unification of the Saudi backed
Northern Yemen republic and the USSR backed southern Democratic
Republic of Yemen. Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was the ruler of the
Northern Yemen since 1978 assumed the leadership of the new
Country. Despite the unification, the two areas never acted united. The
southern Yemenis considered this a forced unification considering it
happened partly because the southern Yemenis armed forced were not
at par with their Northern neighbours' forces. This led to a civil war in
1994 too as the Southern Yemenis accused the Northern Yemenis rulers
as injust. Their main accusations included widespread curroption and
rigged elections. The bulk of these accusations were targetted towards
Ali Abdullah Saleh and the ruling party based in Sana'a. The southerners
also thought that their oil rich lands were unjustly appropriated to the
Northern Yemenis. They also claimed that several thousands Southern
Yemenis were retired early in civil services etc.
Another serious dilemma arises due to the religious geography of the
region. There are 2 major islamic sects that reside in the region. The
shias predominantly in the North and the sunnis elsewhere.
The serious issues began in 2011 when after other revolutions in Arab
and Africa such as the Egyptian revolution, The yemenis started one of
their own. The yemenis, restless after the huge unemployment in the
Country and the failling economy, started a protest to finally get Abdullah
Saleh resigned after more than 3 decades. After a major demonstration
of 16000 people in Sanaa in February 2011, Abdullah Saleh announed
he would not be contesting the elections in 2013 and power will not be
transferred to his son. The yemenis continued protests with an objective
of immediate resignation of Abdullah Saleh. In May of the same year,
after a bombing of a mosque used by high level Government officials,
Abdullah Saleh handed power over the the Vice president Abd Rabbuh
Mansur Hadi and flew to Saudi Arabia for treatment.But Yemeni officials
made it clear that this was a temporary change in power. But in
November of the same year, Abdullah Saleh signed an agreement to
transfer power to Al Hadi in exchange for immunity from prosecution.
The deal was accepted by GCC but many tribes such as the Houthis
rejected it.
Al Hadi has since been incapable of dealing with the ongoing problems
such as attacks by Al-Qaeda, a seperatist movement in the South and
also the allegiance of many military personnel to Al Saleh. The houthis,
who were partly responsible for the resignation of Saleh have since
started supporting him against Al Hadi creating further unrest in the
region. The houthis, who are basically Zaidi Shias (5 imam shias) are
predominantly in the sada'a and sana'a regions and are still a minority in
Yemen. Their basic demand is to have a more democratic Government
that has more participation of minorities like themselves. Abdullah Saleh
continues to enjoy significant support from some public and champions
that Yemen was far peaceful in his Governance. Al Hadi meanwhile
continues to strive to establish himself as the rightful leader.
Then come in Saudi Arabia, A predominantly Sunni Muslim Country and
also widely recognized as the religious capital for all Muslims. Saudi
Arabia considers Iran, The Shia Muslim's regligious capital as their
greatest rivals. Saudi Arabia has openly accused Iran of funding Al
Houthis to create unrest in the regious to throw Al Hadi's Government
over. This is quite contradicting too as Iran has never publicly lent
support to the Houthis and also that Iranis are basically 12 Imam shias
while the Houthis are 5 imam shias. But Al Hadi's Government has
testified that they have in the past, seized weapon shipments from Iran
intended for the Houthis.
This political and relgious unrest is the main reason that Half of Yemen
currently lies under the poverty line and there have been a massive
number of civilian casualties too.

A Personal assessment: Yemen is not a very oil rich Country but its
its geographic location that is highly significant for not only the GCC
Countries but also for most of Asia. Yemen is known as the South gate
of the Arab. Sharing a border with the oil rich Countries of Saudi Arabia
and Oman, it automatically gains geographic importance. It is also
controlling one of the most important sea ways in the World. The city of
Aden in the Southern Yemen has been part of the crossroads of the
busiest sea lanes in the World for quite sometime now. Statistically
speaking, everyday 3 million barrels of oil pass through the water of the
gulf of Aden. Hence we cannot simply watch Yemen demolish. The
World has to somehow solve this political instability.
There have also been numerous human rights violation issues in Yemen
considering the wars have led to more than 16000 deaths within the past
2 years only of which about 10000 were civilians. Also, more than 3
million people have been displaced from their homes. If this situation
continues to escalate at this rate, it might, God forbid, even the
complications we are currently facing in Syria.
I do think the Saudis have a right to intervene. As when the Houthis
marched into Sana'a and the protests led to President Al Hadi having to
evacuate, we can not expect Saudi Arabia to just ignore the instability
and unrest in their own backyard. But i think the Saudis and Iranis need
to set their sectarian differences aside and not involve the Yemenis into
it because that can only lead to more violence. All the big players such
as the Saudis, Iranis, Al Hadi and even the Houthis need to reach a
democratic solution to this unrest.
This escalating unrest could even cause Al-Qaeda to dominate the
Sunni populated regious who have greiverances against both Al Hadi
and the Houthis. That would lead to even greater amounts of terror and
unrest.
Hence this issue needs to be handled as quickly as possible.