War in Yemen

Background of the conflict

СЛАЙД The anti-government protests in Yemen that began in February 2011 led to an
acute internal political crisis. In November 2011, Yemeni President Ali Abdullah
Saleh, who has been in power since 1978, through the mediation of the Arab Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC), signed an agreement on the transfer of power with the
opposition. In accordance with it, on February 21, 2012, the election of a new
president was held. Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi was elected to this post for a two-year
transitional period.

Despite the election of a new head of state, the domestic political crisis in the country
has not been resolved. Armed clashes regularly took place between the authorities and
various opposition groups. The most acute conflict erupted between the Hadi
supporters and the Hussite rebels.

СЛАЙД One of the main demands of the rebels was the provision of greater autonomy
for their northern province of Saad. The core wing is the Ansar Allah group. Since
2014, UN sanctions (ban on leaving the country and freezing of assets) have been
applied to the leaders of the group for “threatening the peace and stability of the
country and obstructing the political process”.

Iran supports the Hussites and therefore Teheran is accused of destabilizing the
situation in the region. In fact, in recent years, Yemen has become the battlefield of
Iran, which supports the Hussites, and Saudi Arabia, which is on the side of President
Hadi.

Aggravation of the situation

СЛАЙД The confrontation between the authorities and the Hussites intensified in
August 2014. Hussites held mass demonstrations in several regions of Yemen against
the reduction of subsidies for oil products, which caused a sharp increase in petroleum
prices. By September 2014, protests seized several areas of Sana'a and a number of
government agencies.

On September 21, 2014, the Hussites and the Yemeni government, through UN
mediation, signed a peace agreement, one of the conditions of which was the
resignation of the current government. Despite the peace agreement, in December
2014, the Hussites continued their armed struggle.

СЛАЙД In early January 2015, the Yemeni government prepared a draft constitution
providing for the division of the country into six provinces. According to the
document, the Hussites were deprived of the strategically important port city of
Hodeida. Dissatisfaction with the draft constitution caused new protests.

On February 6, 2015, the Hussites announced the dissolution of parliament and

submitted a constitutional declaration stipulating the creation of new authorities in
Yemen. Shiite rebels were supported by supporters of former President Ali Abdullah
Saleh.

On February 15, 2015, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution requiring the
Hussites to immediately vacate the occupied government buildings and return to the
negotiation in order to resolve the domestic political crisis.

СЛАЙД The intervention of the Arabian coalition

On March 24, 2015, the President of Yemen called on the countries of the Cooperation
Council of the Arab States to intervene in the situation in the country.
On the night of March 26, 2015, at the request of the President of Yemen, the Saudi
Arabian Air Force, with the support of other monarchies of the Gulf, began to launch
air strikes on the positions of the Hussites.

The operation also involved the air forces of the coalition of Bahrain, the United Arab
Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Morocco, Sudan and Egypt.

On April 21, 2015, the coalition command announced the end of the military operation
and the beginning of the operation “Revival of Hope”, aimed at protecting civilians,
combating terrorism and a political solution in Yemen. It was noted that the
completion of the first operation does not mean the cessation of air strikes, and Saudi
Arabia continued to bomb the rebel positions.

СЛАЙД Negotiations

Attempts to resolve the situation have been repeatedly made by the international
community. In 2015, two rounds of inter-Yemeni negotiations under the auspices of
the UN took place in Geneva: June 15–19 and December 15–20. The first ended to no
avail, and during the second round, the parties agreed to exchange prisoners and
deliver humanitarian aid to Taiz.
A month later, in Kuwait, under the auspices of the UN, consultations began between
the government and the rebel delegation. A de-escalation and coordination committee
was created.
СЛАЙД Terrorist attacks

Against the background of deepening crisis in Yemen frequent militant attacks

terrorist groups "Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula" and "Islamic State." The largest
terrorist attack occurred on March 20, 2015. About 140 people became victims of the
attacks, the number of wounded exceeded 280.

СЛАЙД A new round of conflict.

New clashes between the Hussites and supporters of ex-President Yemen Saleh using
heavy machine guns, mortars and grenade launchers broke out in Sana'a on November
29, 2017.

On December 3, 2017, former President Saleh announced the termination of allied

relations with the Hussites.

On December 4, Saleh died as a result of an attack by Hussite rebels.

СЛАЙД Drug trafficking

Various drugs have spread across regions under Houthi control. Residents in Houthi-
held Sanaa told that drugs are everywhere and are even sold on the streets, some
markets and Houthi-owned grocery stores.

This trade has also become a main source of vast wealth for the Houthi militias.
The report also spoke of the close cooperation between the Houthis and drug gangs
that are affiliated with Iran and the its proxy, the Lebanese Hezbollah party

The Houthis use drugs as one of the effective ways to lure children into their ranks.
International reports revealed how the militants abduct children and force them to take
drugs. Once they become addicted, they become easy to control by the Houthis and are
forced to the battlefronts.

Economic experts estimate that the Houthis reap in about 1 billion dollars a year from
the drug trade, which is one of the main sources for funding its war effort.

СЛАЙД Prospects

The First alternative:

Most likely, the Yemeni crisis will develop until it turns into another protracted
conflict without clear prospects. This path will not cause surrender, but the
consolidation of the Yemenis and a complete humanitarian collapse will be inevitable.

The second alternative:

The coalition ends the intervention on a plausible pretext, but no settlement plan has
been undertaken with the mediation of the international community. This is likely to
lead to the collapse of the country and a bloody civil war, and Yemen will be bloodless
even more.

The third alternative (the most favorable):

The cessation of war and the adoption by the UN Security Council of a new plan for a
comprehensive settlement of the crisis. However, this is the most unlikely scenario.