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Basic Model 01 Risk Analysis
Basic Model 01 Risk Analysis
Reddyy pharmacy, sells 250 strips/day of low budget drugs at an average contribution of Rs
Sales volume and average price are expected to grow by 5% every year for both the drugs
To operate a franchise , it needs to have a 1250 sqft space for retail shop with a lease rental of Rs.175 / sqft / month (re
A one time renovation of the premises worth Rs.30,00,000 will need to be incurred at the start. Required personnel cos
Wage inflation in the economy is 8%. Other operational expenses are expected to be 30% of the contribution, generate
Tax rate in the economy is 35%. Tax losses cannot be carried forward
The initial investment (deposit + renovation) can be funded by 60% bank loan (@13% interest rate). The remaining sho
Other investment opportunity with NOD Co. is expected to provide a return of 25%
Evaluate the business opportunity with a project life of 5 years
After 5 years the franchise will be handed over to Dr. Reddyy and the deposit will be refunded to the NOD Co.(Ignore d
rage contribution of Rs.40/ strip and 150 strips/day of high budget drugs at an average contribution of Rs.70/ strip
Rs.175 / sqft / month (rental contract for 5 years, deposit of Rs.15,00,000 at the start)
Required personnel costs are Rs 125,000/month
contribution, generated for the period
ate). The remaining should be funded using equity. The debt is to be repaid at the end of 5 years in lump sum
o the NOD Co.(Ignore depreciation) If NOD Co. invests in the project, what is the expected IRR?
Chart Title
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5
Sales Volume (Strips/Day)
Low Budge 250 5% qty sold 250 262.50 275.63 289.41 303.88
High Budg 150 5% 150 157.50 165.38 173.64 182.33
commission (Rs./Strip)
Low Budge 40 5% sp 40 42.00 44.10 46.31 48.62
High Budg 70 5% 70 73.50 77.18 81.03 85.09
opportunity 15.0%
operational sensitivity
% growth in sales volume
46.44% 3% 4.00% 5% 6% 7%
300 -49% -12% -4% 3% 8%
310 -8% 0% 6% 11% 16%
320 4% 10% 15% 19% 23%
workdays
330 13% 18% 23% 27% 30%
/yr
340 21% 26% 30% 33% 37%
350 29% 33% 37% 40% 43%
365 40% 43% 46% 50% 53%
0 1 2 3
-100 -10 -10 -10
irr Err:523 irr > coc
coc 20%
financing sensitivity
interest rate %
46.44% 11% 12.00% 13% 14% 15% <== LOW IMPACT ON IRR
0% 23% 23% 23% 23% 23%
15% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26%
30% 31% 30% 30% 30% 30%
% debt 45% 37% 37% 36% 36% 35%
60% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45%
75% 75% 73% 71% 69% 68%
90% 169% 164% 159% 153% 148%
DEBT = RISK
RISK ==> MORE RETURNS
LEVERAGE
LL UL RANDOM
Volume Gr 2 8 5%
OPEX % 25 30 26% <==
Debt % 20 70 59%
Deposit 1,500,000
Rennovation 3,000,000 WHAT IS THE PROB THAT PROJECT BEATS THE COST OF CAPIT
Initial Invest 4,500,000
Z VALUE #DIV/0!
ACCEPT P #DIV/0!