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The Fibonacci Factor: Step-by-Step Trading Guide: Price Action & Income Presents..
The Fibonacci Factor: Step-by-Step Trading Guide: Price Action & Income Presents..
My name is Richard Krugel, and I’m the Senior Trader and Technical Analyst
at Price Action & Income.
Before we dive in, I want to give you a brief backstory about the concepts
you’re going to see in this eBook.
Firstly, I am a r eal trader that trades for a living. Like so many traders out
there, I had a very difficult path to becoming consistently profitable.
I’ve always wondered how much money, time, and effort I could have saved
if I had my strategy sooner, however, which is why I genuinely market my
strategy:
To help fellow traders understand price action for what it is, and to trade it
with discipline.
ichard Krugel
-R
*Please Note: My trading methodology is aimed at achieving one specific
goal:
Finding the end of corrections and entering low risk trades when the trend
resumes again.
Introduction:
What are Fibonacci Ratios and why should you use them?
Today these ratios are known as Fibonacci ratios, and the most popular
ratio of all is 1.618, or the inverse of that (0.618). Mathematicians and
scientists refer to this number as t he golden ratio.
As in nature, Fibonacci ratios work very well in the world of financial trading
when performing technical analysis.
They are a very reliable indication of future support and resistance levels,
and price action almost magically tends to gravitate to and react from
them.
In this eBook, we’ll cover the two main ways of performing technical
analysis with Fibonacci ratios: Fibonacci retracements and extensions.
Please remember that this eBook will only scratch the surface of what
you’ll need to know to truly m
aster the markets.
Yes, Fibonacci Ratios are an incredibly powerful resource to have at your
disposal, but you’ll still need to work hard to develop the rest of your
strategy and the rest of your knowledge.
If you want the shortcuts to really master this stuff, I put together a
three-part video training that will show you how to use these techniques as
part of a low-risk trading strategy for any market condition.
You’ll be fully immersed in the approach I’ve been perfecting for over ten
years, and you can grab the first training session for just $14.
Click here to get started.
Now, on to the Fibonacci strategy…
Fibonacci Retracements
The most commonly used retracement ratios are:
0.382 %
0.5 %
0.618 %
0.786 %
Let’s use an example of how Fibonacci retracement levels can be used in
an upward trending market:
A great way to determine where a pullback or correction that moves
opposite from the main trend will end, is to use Fibonacci retracements.
Our first chart above is that of Gold and shows most of the upward trend
that this commodity experienced in 2016.
To use Fibonacci retracements a trader will connect a low on a chart with a
high that materialized after that low (in an uptrend) and by doing this try to
determine where that pullback may find support again.
I marked most of the corrections with red arrows, and a closer look shows
how well each correction found support and reversed back up again from a
Fibonacci retracement ratio.
Fibonacci Extensions
The most commonly used extension ratios are:
100 %
138.2 %
161.8 %
178.6 %
200 %
The following example shows how Fibonacci extension levels can be used,
but this time in a downward trending market:
When Gold experienced a downward trending phase that ended around
December 2016, Fibonacci extensions could have been used to determine
where price may find future support.
Fibonacci extension ratios work well in determining where a trend may find
support (in our example) and when price does find support either a
correction might follow or a trend can come to a complete end.
Analysts or traders that use Fibonacci extensions will connect 3 points on a
chart.
In our example a high will be connected with a low and then with a lower
high again.
The Fibonacci extension drawing tool will then project expanded ratios
downwards and these levels will be closely watched for support or change
in trend.
I drew two sets of Fibonacci extensions.
The first one is indicated by little black arrows and the second set with little
red arrows.
The green arrows show how well these Fib extension ratios offered support
as soon as price reached them.
Instead I like using a combination of the following:
My strategy in a nutshell was developed to determine the main trend and
then to join that trend at the end of corrections with as little risk as
possible.
What follows will be a brief overview of these methods followed by a real
example of a recent trade I took when combining all these methods into
one.
Each time frame serves its own purpose with the 4 hour chart showing me
the trend and when a correction is most likely to occur by using my Fib
ratios.
My intermediate 30 minute chart is used to look at price action a little
closer and to determine which corrective pattern might be developing.
I then use various market geometry techniques to pinpoint where that
correction is most likely to end. I again use Fib ratios on this chart when
needed.
The smallest time frame I use is a 5 minute chart.
This is an important chart as I use it as an entry confirmation tool that
filters out the bad setups from the good, thereby increasing my probability
of success on any particular trade while keeping my risk to a minimum.
Knowing what these characteristics are and using techniques such as
market geometry and Fibonacci ratios, in combination with this knowledge,
has helped me to pinpoint the end of corrections with a high degree of
accuracy.
Market Geometry
Market geometry techniques aim to define market structure as all markets
display geometric formations that are repetitive in nature.
The most common market geometry tools used today are pitchforks and
channel lines and they can offer a good indication as to where price might
be heading to in the future or find support/resistance.
I only use pitchforks as a reliable way of finding the end of corrections.
Momentum Divergence
My strategy relies heavily on pure price action and the only indicator I use is
a MACD histogram which is loaded on my 5 minute entry chart.
The term momentum divergence simply refers to when price keeps moving
in one direction but the force or momentum of that move has started to
decrease.
We shall take a closer look at this later.
Step 1: Determine trend and use Fibonacci extensions on 4 hour chart
Using simple trend lines, I was able to determine that AUD/USD has broken
its previous intermediate blue trend line to the upside and its previous
market structure (red horizontal line).
So the intermediate trend at that time was upwards making me search for
long entries.
Using my Fibonacci ratios tool I connected the 3 swings (black arrows) to
project my Fib extension ratios upwards, assuming that price will find
resistance at one of those levels giving me a corrective pattern.
One can see that price started a corrective pattern when it hit the 1.786%
Fib ratio.
Step 2: Identify corrective pattern and where it might end on 30 minute
chart
It was not until around the 20th December 2017 that I became confident
that AUD/USD was forming one of my favourite corrective patterns i.e. a
Symmetrical Triangle correction.
When I trade these particular patterns I do not use pitchforks, but I knew
that if this was a Symmetrical triangle that I could define it by labelling it as
A-B-C-D-E.
I know that these patterns always consist of 5 such waves AND that each
wave tends to end at Fibonacci retracement levels.
These are the characteristics of corrective patterns I was talking about
earlier and knowing these sort of things provides me with the confidence to
trade setups with a high degree of probability and confidence.
Just look at which Fib ratio levels each wave reversed from!
I knew that wave E would terminate at one of my Fibonacci retracement
ratios giving me enough time, in advance to prepare myself for an entry.
Step 3: Look for momentum divergence and reversal candlestick patterns
at area of entry
The last step in the process was to first spot momentum divergence (at the
area I identified before) and then secondly look for a reversal candlestick
formation to confirm an entry.
The MACD histogram is loaded on the bottom panel of my 5 minute chart
and it showed that although price was moving downwards into my entry
zone that momentum was drying up or diverting from what price was
doing.
This is called momentum divergence and most reversals at the end of
corrections will display this phenomenon.
All that I had to do next was to wait for one of the reversal candlesticks I
track and I got that confirmation when the green reversal candle appeared
right at my area of entry.
This meant that I could now proceed to place a buy order slightly above
that candle with a stop loss just below it.
Trade Results
Following the above mentioned process enabled me to enter a trade with
very little risk, right at the end of the correction, before price resumed the
intermediate trend that I identified on my 4 hour chart.
My target was set at the start of the correction that I identified and price
reached my target in quick succession resulting in a profit that well
exceeded the risk I took on.
Conclusion
Using Fibonacci ratios to find areas of support or resistance can provide us
with many tradable opportunities, especially when used in combination
with additional methods that follow a systematic approach.
Remember: Fibonacci ratios only form a small part of my overall
methodology, but it’s an extremely important component of the whole.
I use a c
ombination of proven techniques to form my complete approach.
In the highly competitive world of trading, stacking the odds in your favor
requires a strategy that relies on a systematic approach—in which each
part has an important role.
This allows you to break down price action into manageable,
“bite-sized”chunks to find entries with very low risk (and massive profit
potential).
If you’re ready to see how you can build an entire strategy around these
tools, I urge you to check out my Propulsion Method.
I packed a ton of detail into this video-training series, and it illustrates the
whole process—from start to finish.
Thanks for reading along, and don’t forget to check out the Propulsion
Method training h
ere.
If you’d like to see my complete trading strategy – plus my own exact entry
criteria for finding the highest profitability trades that most traders
completely miss – I highly recommend my video training.
It’s called the Propulsion Method, and it’s the next step in learning how to
master market structure and take control of your trades.
● How to spot 100%, 300%, and even 800% ROI trades, including
REAL examples of these exact types of trades – and how to manage
those positions until you take profit
● How to see through the “noise” and identify natural market movement
● How it all ties together and how you can start applying it to your
trades right away