CHAPTER 8

SUMMARY
AND
CONCLUSION
CHAPTER 8

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

Different analyses have been made through earlier chapters of this thesis with an
aim to investigate the causes and impacts of deforestation on human population in
Kokrajhar district. Here, an effort has been made to summarize the findings and
observation of the researcher on different issues pertaining to the study.

8.1 Summary
The partition of India following its independence from the British rule brought a
sweeping change in the population growth of both the state of Assam and the Kokrajhar
district. During the pre-independence period, the district had a decreasing trend of
population growth rate, but during the first decade of post-independence, it soared to an
unusual rate, which was five times higher than the last pre-independence decade. On the
other hand, the state had already an increasing trend of population growth rate, which
was accelerated during the first few post independence decades. For the first three
decades of post-independence, the growth rate of district population remained much
higher than that of the state and finally the former went below the latter in 2001.

The key component of the population of the district is rural population. Urban
population, according to the last census 2001, constituted only 6.06% of the total
population. The period between 1951 and 1971 witnessed a population growth that does
not conform to the growth rates of its preceding as well as succeeding periods, which
featured in the case of Assam state also. After the independence of the country, both the
district and its forest area witnessed an unusual growth of population, indicating large
scale intrusion into the district from outside. Although that sudden growth was
stabilized in the district level, the forest area faced unabated migration from the
non-forest area for some more years. However, in the later decades the growth rate of
forest area population decreased at a faster rate than that of the study area and finally, in
2001, the former acquired lower magnitude than the later. This indicates that migration
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into forest area has been substantially reduced and the forest area population may be
expected to grow with its natural growth rate. One aspect of the growth of forest area
population was that growth rate of female was notably higher than that of the male
during the increasing growth rate period of 1951-1981. However, the two growth rates
moved almost equally in later periods.
There are two aspects of reason of population decrease of forest area in the later
decades, one is its original course and the other is unexpected conflict between two
main forest inhabiting communities, namely the Bodos and the Adivasis. Prior to the
clash, the census 1991 already recorded a decreasing growth rate of forest area
population, and as such, a decreasing trend of growth rate was already there. On the
other hand, although the conflict between the two communities originated from a non-
forest issue (a rape case), the then persisting internal quarrel between the two
communities on the issue of the forest ownership fuelled the incident to explode into a
clash. There, a community drove the other away from their respective majority places
inside the forests. This contributed much in decelerating the growth rate of forest area
population. A good number of people stayed back to live within the forest area after the
conflict, but displaced from their original villages, which resulted in the unexpected
growth of population of other settlement of the forest area. Thus, the growth of other
settlement population is not regular and that depends on temporal circumstances.
Sometimes, census methodology may also alter the population of other settlements as
the constituent population of it may be clubbed with adjacent forest village populations.
Forest villages are major contributors to forest area population. The forest
villages, a set up initiated by British rulers, started to come up during the first quarter of
the 19th century. Before the inception of these villages, it may be taken into granted that
there was no population inside the forests, as there does not exist any historically forest
dwelling community such as vanavasi in the area; rather the people used to live in the
areas adjacent to the forests and led symbiotic life with forests. These forest villages
were created with an intention of assuring labour supply for the purpose of forest
exploitation. After independence also, the process of creation of forest villages
continued for some decades, and it was only the Forest Act of 1980, after which this
process was terminated. The district currently possesses highest number of forest
villages in the state. The population that exists in forest area other than forest village

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population is due to different set up made by Forest Department for carrying forest
management activities, together with population of encroachers of the forest area. This
population has been termed as other settlement population in the current study.
The forest fringe villages may be considered as gateway to the forest area.
Therefore, an event in forest area can influence the fringe villages and vice versa. Thus,
from Chapter 2, it may be noted that the cause and effects of the mentioned conflict was
shared by these two areas, the cause of sudden high increase of population of fringe
villages was the mentioned conflict that broke out in forest area. These forest fringe
villages act as facilitator of forest related developments such as migration. Perhaps, they
are the original owner of the forests of the district as their relationship with forests
existed from time immemorial while inception of forest village is only about 200 years
old. For forest related issues, the situation of forest fringe areas ought to be looked at for
a better explanation of forest area situation. After independence, the growth rates of
forest area and fringe village populations moved almost opposite to each other as when
one tended to increase the other took to decrease.
In brief, the state, the district, the forest area and forest villages have decreasing
trend of population growth rate while the population of other settlement has a
decreasing trend of growth rate. Forest fringe villages have no notable trend. The high
growth of population of other settlements during the decade 1991-2001 may be
considered occurring inadvertently and is expected not to continue.
Deforestation has emerged as one of the major concerns of the world community
as significant environmental impacts are attributed to it. Analysis in Chapter 3 on forest
cover and population of Kokrajhar district over the period 1977-2007 revealed that the
plainly observed association between population increase and deforestation in most of
the developing countries prevails in the district too and there exists a strong inverse
relationship between the two (correlation co-efficient = -0.99). Population growth rate
was steadily decreasing in the district, while deforestation rate was found to fluctuate.
During the period, the district lost 38% of its forest cover that existed in the beginning
of the period. In spite of declining growth rate of population of the district as well as its
forest area, deforestation was taking place at an alarming rate. Estimation of forest
cover of the district by the Forest Area Change Model of Food and Agricultural
Organization indicated that if deforestation continues at the recent rate, and population

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growth rate remains more or less same, the district, in the next three decades, would
loss 43.5% of its forest cover that was available in 2007. By the beginning of the
nineties of the current century, when the population density is expected to be about 492
per sq km, the vegetation of possible deforestable area of the district would be almost
completely cleared. These results are in conformity with FAO theories of deforestation.
However, a good sign is that the association between population and deforestation is
weakening.
The analysis of socio-economic condition of the people of the district in
Chapter 4 suggested that agricultural land expansion was the main direct cause of
deforestation in the district. There is a continuous increase in the number of small
agricultural holdings indicating that the division of original families has resulted in
requirement of more agricultural lands. The people of the district, due to their economic
backwardness, choose clearing of forest for agricultural purposes as the first option in
the way of arranging their livelihood. The area of forest land was found to bear negative
association with both of agricultural land and agricultural labourers; and the correlation
of the first pair was significant. However, the amount of decadal increase in agricultural
land is decreasing in the district. One positive aspect is that people have gradually
accepted the modern method of agriculture. Fertilizer consumption and foodgrains
production both have increasing trend in the district. Poverty and fuelwood
consumption, which are interlinked in the present context of the district, seems to be the
principal underlying causes of deforestation in the district. Due to the presence of a
large number of population below poverty line in the district (as much as 41.4%), and
non-availability of required cleaner fuel facility, majority of the people of the district
cannot be expected to have a shift towards clean fuel for cooking purposes in immediate
future, and as such the wood extraction for use as firewood is supposed to continue for
long time in the district.
As per the district is concerned, although the overall growth of tribal population
was lower than the growth of other population over the period 1961-2001, there was
significantly higher growth rate of tribal population in forest area of the district.
Meanwhile the share of tribal population in the non-forest area of the district was
decreasing gradually. While, during the middle of the period, growth rate of non-tribal
population in the forest area notably declined, there was a slight increase in it during the

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recent decade. Conversely, tribal population increased erratically during the middle of
the period, but during the recent decade it did not declined only all of a sudden,
nevertheless the growth rate collapsed to reach a negative value. In spite of the decrease
of tribal population, deforestation was going on in the district at large scale in recent
years too. On the other hand, owing to the too much profit-making attitude of the forest
department and devious tactics of some clever outsiders, the attitude of the tribal people
towards the forests, who were forest friendly earlier, is found to substantially deviate
nowadays and they are seen to involve in detrimental activities of damaging forests.
Thus, the analyses of the Chapter 4 lead to a conclusion that instead of
population increase, backward socio-economic conditions of the people are contributing
towards deforestation in a more way. Without improvement of the socio-economic
conditions of the people conservation of forests is seemed not feasible.
In Chapter 5, analysis of malaria prevalence and its trends in the district over the
last ten years starting from 2001 to 2010 reveal that the occurrence of malaria in the
forest area is significantly higher than that in the non-forest area. The transmission of
malaria parasite takes place through only two Plasmodium species of P. Falciparum
(PF) and P. Vivax (PV) in both the forest and non-forest areas of the district and the
prevalence of P. Falciparum is higher. The Annual Blood Examination Rate (ABER) is
relatively lower in forest area than the non-forest area while Annual Parasite Incidence
(API) of the former was much higher. Nearly one third population of the district is
under high risk of being affected. The malaria API and forest cover of the district during
the period are negatively correlated (coefficient = -0.57).
A favourable climatic condition for transmission of malaria prevails in the
district throughout the year. There exists dissimilar dynamics of malaria transmission in
forest and non-forest areas of the district. It was observed that forest area and non-forest
area have distinguishable malaria seasons. Relative humidity was positively correlated
with forest malaria incidence, while temperature components were negatively correlated
with non-forest malaria incidence. There was higher seasonality of concentration of
malaria in the forest area than non-forest area that may be attributed to its pattern of
climatic condition. Significant correlation between annual changes in malaria cases in
forest area and temperature was observed (coeff=0.689, p = 0.040).

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 There is an intricate association between climatic variables and malaria
incidence of the district. Significant influence of some climatic variables on malaria did
not reflect in temporal data. Climatic variables, viz. rainfall, temperature and relative
humidity, influence malaria incidence in forest area and non-forest area in different
ways. Rainfall plays a primary role in characterizing malaria incidences in the district,
and malaria parasites in the district had adapted to a relative humidity condition higher
than the normal range for transmission in India. Instead of individual influence of the
climatic variables, their combined influence was utilizable for construction of models
for forecasting malaria incidence rates in different areas of the district.
In spite of continuing deforestation, malaria incidence of the district has a
decreasing trend. However, it does not imply that deforestation has a positive impact on
malaria incidence; rather it is the improved control measure, which has been able to
reduce malaria. In this regard, the services rendered by NRHM is worth mentioning as
necessary system has been set up through this programme to constantly monitor the
situation at village level. The past incidences indicate that any loopholes in the control
measure may facilitate sudden rise of malaria cases. Nevertheless, even though malaria
remains endemic in the district, no entomological survey on malaria has been conducted
yet in the district.
In the light of analyses in Chapter 6, it is apparent that deforestation of the
district has affected the traditional health care system in a great way. Medicinal plants
used in traditional health care methods have disappeared in large number and a good
number of them are on the verge of extinction. Meanwhile, health inequality persists in
the forest area of the district. They have been deprived of health facility in comparison
to non-forest area, possessing lower indices of health facility in terms of population and
area. Forest area people are between two contrasting situations, one is deterioration of
traditional health care system and the other is want of modern health facility. These
together have produced a complex health seeking behaviour of the forest area people,
which is a mixture of traditional and modern health care systems. One of the notable
findings of the study in this chapter is significant loss of indigenous knowledge on
plants of the young generation that was detected by z-test.
Since people residing in forest area are socially, economically and
demographically more backward, special care is required for their health care as they

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cannot afford health against money. Without their proper health care, the goal of “health
for all” will remain as merely a slogan.
Analyses of Chapter 7 reveal decrease in rainfall and increase in temperature of
the district, both of which are concerning aspects for the district. The district’s situation
is worse than that of the state in regard to variation of rainfall. Rainfall of the district
had higher variability than that of the state during the period 1971-2010, and
occurrences of wetter and drier conditions of annual rainfalls of the state and the district
were not concurrent. Both the district and the state have high replicability indices of
1.12 and 1.04, indicating that the wettest month of the year generally occurs in the same
range of months every year. The “markedly seasonal with a long dry season” and
“seasonal” regimes were more pronounced in the district and the state respectively. The
average time of occurrence of seasonality was 188.400 for the district and 187.960 for
the state, i.e., the month of July for both. Cramer’s test for 30-year overlapping
sub-periods displayed significantly different rainfall conditions of April and September
rainfalls of the district in 1971-2000 from that in the entire period; April was drier while
September was wetter. On the other hand, both rainfalls of July and September of the
state during the period 1971-2000 were significantly wetter than the long term rainfall.
Meanwhile, for both the district and the state, the rainfalls of the period 1981-2010 did
not vary in a significant way from the long term rainfall. Furthermore, t-test for 20-year
non-overlapping sub-periods demonstrated significant deviations in April and
September rainfalls of the district and July, September and Summer rainfalls of the
state. Mann-Kendall test for determining the months (seasons) with significant trends in
rainfall exhibited that the April rainfall of the district had a significant increasing trend,
while July, September, Summer and Annual rainfalls had decreasing trends. On the
other hand, July, September, December, Summer and Annual rainfalls of the state had
decreasing trend, no rainfall of the state having increasing trend. Decreasing rate of
annual rainfall of the district was higher than that of the state (10.25 mm/yr and 6.68
mm/yr respectively). The standardized anomaly indices of annual rainfalls smoothened
by 5-year running mean exhibited that the district rainfall was more fluctuating in
character than the state rainfall.

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 From the analysis of district rainfalls, it may be discerned that there is a
tendency of both summer and winter seasons of rainfall of the district to shift forward
by a month each.
The temperature of the district came across significant variations through the
period 1971-2010. The means of both the beginning and ending 10-year non-
overlapping, 20-year and 30-year overlapping sub-periods of substantial number of
temperature components were significantly deviated from the long term normal.
Minimum and mean components of temperature varied in a similar way while
maximum temperature varied in an opposite way. For minimum and mean temperatures,
beginning sub-period was colder while the ending sub-period was warmer than the long
term normal, but for maximum temperature, the beginning sub-period was warmer and
the ending sub-period was colder than the long term normal. For most of the monthly
and seasonal temperatures, the mean of the last sub-period significantly differed from
the mean of the first sub-period. Highest number of significant sub-periodical variation
was observed in minimum temperature. For monthly minimum and mean temperatures,
all significant test-statistic were positive, while such were negative for maximum
temperatures.
As many as nine monthly, all seasonal and the annual mean temperatures had
significant increasing trends at 95% confidence level. The annual and all seasonal
minimum temperatures had also significant increasing trends. However, the annual and
three seasonal maximum temperatures had significant decreasing trends.
Level of minimum temperature was rising while that of maximum temperature
was falling. Magnitudes of extremes of hot and cold both may be expected to be
reduced in coming years. If the trends detected by the current study persist, annual
minimum temperature of the district would be increased by about 7.90C while annual
maximum temperature would be decreased by about 3.50C by the end of the present
century.
Findings of this chapter endorsed the notion that deforestation influences rainfall
in a negative way, while it contributes towards increase in temperature. However, in the
context of the district, a supportive study on the prevailing biogeophysical process and
surface properties in the district is deemed necessary in order to establish this
conjecture.

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8.2 Extract of findings

In brief, it leads to conclude that the prevailing socio-economic and

demographic conditions of the people of the district are in favour of persuading
deforestation. Agricultural land expansion is the proximate cause while poverty and
fuelwood consumption are principal underlying causes of deforestation of the district.
Deforestation has negative impacts on health and environment of the district. Although
the impact of deforestation on vector borne disease could not be ascertained due to
improved control measures, its impact on health care of the forest area people was
comprehensible. The deforestation of the district was associated with micro-climatic
changes that are worth concerning. Some monthly, seasonal and annual rainfalls are
significantly decreasing while some monthly, seasonal and annual temperatures are
significantly increasing. Since there is a significant change in climate of the district, this
will influence on the vector borne disease situation as climatic factors are associated
with malaria incidence in the district.

8.3 Researcher’s view on the issue

The socially and demographically backward Kokrajhar district is passing
through transitional period. It has been witnessing rapid changes in the fields of socio-
economy, demography, education, culture and other aspects. Although the people of the
district are trying to conquer the obstacles on the way to their development, the latest
report on the human development of the district, provided in the Assam Human
Development Report 2003, indicates that the district will have to go still a long way in
order to proceed along with the people of other parts of the state. The report states that
Kokrajhar is one of the poor performing districts of the state in terms of development in
basic human capabilities in three fundamental dimensions, viz., a long and healthy life,
knowledge and a decent standard of living. With a value of 0.354, out of 23 districts of
the state that existed during the report preparation time, the district occupied only 15th
position in Human Development Index, which is below the state average of 0.407. In
district wise rankings, the district occupied 14th, 22nd and 9th places in terms of
income, education and health respectively. In terms of Human Poverty Index calculated
in 1999, it has been placed in 20th rank. Again, in terms of the Gender related

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Development Index also, the district is not much forward, and with an index of 0.354, it
was placed in 11th position only, while state average was 0.407.
Under these circumstances, the people of the district may not be expected to pay
greater attention towards conserving environment than issues pertaining to their poor
living condition. Thus, to improve the deforestation situation, the first and foremost
necessity is improvement of socio-economic conditions of the people. For the district,
increase in population has ceased to appear as concerning factor as its growth rate is
decelerating, but the already acquired population is enough for facilitating persistent
disturbances on forest for long years. If the socio-economic conditions of the people are
improved, the population pressure on deforestation would be automatically minimized.
It is the tribal people who are primarily facing the consequences of clearing
forests, and in future also, they are supposed to be affected most. However, the fact is
that they can neither discern the troubles they are facing because of deforestation nor
perceive their gloomy future ahead following deforestation. Moreover, leading an
isolated life by tribal people from mainstream life can no longer be desired. By
imparting proper education and improving their socio-economic condition, they should
be prepared as capable of moving together with mainstream life.
The forest department should adopt necessary measures to convince the local
tribal people that the department is for safeguarding the forests for everybody’s interest,
and if they stand by the department, their forest could not be destroyed by other people.
They should be made aware of the inevitable unwarranted crisis in their life that is
going to emerge if forests are destroyed. Big amount of funds are being allocated for
development of tribal life. However, in order to achieve the objective of bringing a
qualitative change in their life, the matter of proper utilization of these funds is also
equally important, which has not been paid attention.
The problem of health care of rural areas sticks not only with Kokrajhar district,
but also with all over Assam state. Health practitioners are not readily rendering their
services; rather in most cases, they seem to do so under compulsion only. Most of them
use medical treatment as purely professional, rather than dedicating himself to human
services. Due to this reason, the required congenial relationship between doctor and
patient is not established. As such, the disadvantaged and backward people do not have
the courage to approach a doctor for their health problem and their health seeking

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remains restricted at ASHA level. In this context, the traditional health care remains the
only viable option to these people. On the other hand, this system is in grave peril due to
deforestation and climate change.
The disparity in health facility is one of the concerning aspects of health issues
prevailing in the district. Lack of communication of the remote areas of the district,
especially forest area, has also contributed towards this embarrassment. These two
issues should be tackled simultaneously.
The change in climatic behaviour of the district is perceived by the common
people also. The rainfall has become erratic and people now cannot defend on their
traditional summer cultivation. On the other hand, inconsistent temperature is seen
occurring in winter season; sudden rise and fall of temperature has made the weather of
the days unpredictable.

8.4 Recommendations

1. Since malaria is endemic in the district, for acquiring comprehensive

knowledge on malaria of the district, an entomological study should be
conducted under the aegis of health department.

2. Different malaria situation prevails in forest area and non-forest area of the
district, from both the perspectives of incidence and climatic influences. As
such, homogeneous malaria control policy would not yield effective result in
containment of malaria. Therefore, separate control measures for two areas
should be designed for combating malaria in forest and non-forest areas of the
district for achieving a fruitful result.

3. As WHO defines “health” as “a state of complete physical, mental, and social

well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”, effective
planes and policy should be adopted to keep alive the traditional method of
health care as this bears a mental and social attachment of the local people. In
this direction, policy may be adopted to bring traditional health care method
up as a viable supplementary of modern health care method.

4. A comprehensive survey should be conducted by the Health Department to

identify the health vulnerable area of the district, specially the forest area.

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 Accordingly, appropriate measures should be adopted to provide necessary
health facility. In this regard, it is worth mentioning that in some cases the
Health Department might need to be flexible on some of their existing norms,
especially the population norms, to provide health facility to the health
vulnerable people on the need and convenience basis.

5. Agricultural Department should organize effective programmes to popularize

the modern method of agriculture among farmers in order to enhance the
yielding capacity of their existing agricultural land, which would reduce the
necessity for clearing forests in search of new agricultural lands. Furthermore,
the farmers should be acquainted with changing patterns of climate of the
district.

6. From analyses in Chapter 4, it has come to the light that Forest Department is
not getting necessary cooperation from the local people. Furthermore, local
people are ignorant about their gloomy future that lies following
deforestation. As such, awareness programme should be organized at the
primary level by the Forest Department and Social organizations to make the
common people understand the inevitable critical consequences of
deforestation, and garner their support towards protecting forests.

8.5 Limitations of the study

The researcher voluntarily admits that analyses in different chapters of this

thesis were associated with following unavoidable limitations.

Study area: The study area did not remain same throughout the study. This
evidently created a little inconvenience while going through the thesis. However,
availability of data and suitability of area concerning different studies led to this
consideration. However, over and above, Kokrajhar district was the centre of all
analyses.

Chapter 3: The Forest Area Change Model applied in the study projects forest
cover of an area based on two reliable forest cover information and corresponding

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populations. However, the complex process of deforestation may not be expected to
occur at uniform rates in the subsequent periods.

Chapter 4: No statistical test could be performed for the identification of

influential factors of deforestation due to non-availability of suitable data.

Chapter 5: The medical block boundary and forest management boundary are
not similar. The representative forest area, mainly Kachugaon Block Primary Health
Center, do not contain a sizeable area of forests, and as such, it may not reflect the
overall situation of forest area in regard to malaria incidence. Still, since the malaria
cases occurred in the excluded forest areas were added to non-forest area, the situation
of forest area might not have improved, rather could have more deteriorated, by their
inclusion.

Chapter 6: The survey in connection with investigation on health seeking

behaviour was carried in the villages within Kachugaon Forest Division only.

Chapter 7: The analysis in the second section has a limitation from the viewpoint
of its short data length. Temperature variation of only two 30-year standard normals
could be incorporated in the analysis for comparison purpose. However, in the context
that stationary of climate statistics cannot be taken for granted (Anthony & Vose, 2011),
behaviour of past 40 years is quite inadequate to ascertain the future behaviour.

8.6 Future scopes of study

The researcher feels that in relation to the current study, further studies may be
undertaken in the following areas.

1. Socio-cultural impact of deforestation: This is the most concerning issue

related to deforestation of the district. As mentioned in introductory chapter as well as
in Chapter 4, the society, culture and economy of the people of the district were founded
based on forests. As such, these socio-cultural institutions have been thrown into chaos
by the vanishing of forests. This study will be a great help towards delivering the
message of unwholesome consequences of deforestation.

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 2. Health inequality in the district with special reference to forest area: This
study will help the Health Department to identify the health vulnerable areas of the
district.
2. Migration into forest areas: A study on socio-cultural and economic causes of
migration into forest area would help the government in adopting necessary policies to
deal with the issue.

3. Evaluation of Joint Forest Managements: Success-failure of Joint Forest

Managements functioning in the district may be evaluated to examine if rectification of
the system is required, as well as for its improvement.

4. Change in the livelihood of the people of forest villages: The main occupation
of the forest villagers were forest labourer. Meanwhile, in the village data provided for
preparation of Forest Working Plan for the period 2007-08 to 2017-2018, all village
headmen reported a shift from their earlier occupation to cultivators. The situation and
circumstances, for which they shifted their occupation and its implications are worth
studying.

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