Accepted Manuscript

Energy storage needs for the substitution of fossil fuel power plants with renewables

Matthew D. Leonard, Efstathios E. Michaelides, Dimitrios N. Michaelides

PII: S0960-1481(19)30894-8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.06.066
Reference: RENE 11798

To appear in: Renewable Energy

Received Date: 17 September 2018

Revised Date: 11 June 2019
Accepted Date: 12 June 2019

Please cite this article as: Leonard MD, Michaelides EE, Michaelides DN, Energy storage needs for
the substitution of fossil fuel power plants with renewables, Renewable Energy (2019), doi: https://
doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2019.06.066.

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1 Energy Storage Needs for the Substitution of Fossil Fuel Power Plants
2 with Renewables
3 Matthew D. Leonard, Efstathios E. Michaelides1

4 Dept. of Engineering, TCU, Fort Worth, TX, 76132, USA

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5 and Dimitrios N. Michaelides

6 Dept. of Engin. Physics and Nuclear Engin., University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, USA

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7 Matt.Leonard@tcu.edu; E.Michaelides@tcu.edu; dmichaelides@wisc.edu

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8 Abstract

9 Since the electric grid does not store electrical energy, the demand for electric power must be

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matched by the production almost instantaneously. The supply-demand balance imposes a severe
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11 constraint on the penetration of renewable energy sources – especially wind and solar – in the
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12 power production markets of all nations, because solar irradiance and wind energy are not

13 available at all hours of the day and exhibit daily and seasonal variabilities. Using the hourly data
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14 of the electric power demand in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, we calculate the
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15 implications of this constraint on the substitution of fossil fuel power plants with renewable

16 energy sources. When the market penetration of renewables increases and the utilization of solar
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17 and wind energy sources expands to approximately 25%-30% of the annual electricity

18 production, significant energy storage capacity is needed. Simulations of the entire electric grid
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19 are performed to determine the power ratings of the renewable sources and the necessary storage
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20 capacity to substitute part or all of the fossil fuel power capacity in Texas with renewable energy

21 sources.

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Corresponding author

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1 Keywords: Fossil fuel substitution; electricity demand; solar energy; wind power; energy

2 storage.

3 Nomenclature

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4 A. Latin

5 A area

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6 D diameter

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7 E energy

8 h, H heights

9 k temperature sensitivity coefficient

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10 S& solar irradiance

11 T temperature
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12 t time
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13 V wind velocity
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14 B. Greek

15 δ denotes difference
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16 η efficiency

17 ρ air density
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18 C. Subscripts
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19 D demand

20 el electrolysis

21 fc fuel cell

22 P production

23 s pertains to solar energy

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1 sc solar cell

2 S pertains to stored energy

3 w pertains to wind energy

4 i time period

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5 1. Introduction

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6 The global annual growth of electric energy production by far surpasses the growth rate of the

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7 Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES). Since 1980 the annual growth rate of TPES was 1.9% and

8 that of electric energy production 4.9%. This implies that most of the global TPES growth

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accounts for the growth in electric energy production. In this century, the global electricity
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10 demand doubles every 14.5 years and all indications are that it will continue increasing in the

11 intermediate future [1, 2, 3]. A major contributor to the increasing global electricity demand is
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12 the accelerating use of air-conditioning (a/c) systems that demand high electric power during the
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13 summer season [4].

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14 Slightly more than 39% of the global electric energy production is derived from coal and another

15 23% from natural gas [1]. The combustion of the two fossil fuels emits significant quantities of
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16 CO2, the most common Greenhouse Gas (GHG), and the main contributor to the average global

17 temperature increase and Global Climate Change (GCC). Because of such detrimental
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18 environmental effects there are several regional, national and international initiatives to reduce
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19 the use of fossil fuels – primarily of coal – and substitute them with renewable energy sources –

20 primarily with wind and solar energy.

21 Of the several types of fossil fuel power plants, coal units produce the highest amount of CO2 per

22 unit electric energy produced, approximately 1.15 tons of CO2 per MWh. Natural gas units

23 produce on average approximately 0.75 tons of CO2 per MWh [3]. The global production of

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1 electricity using fossil fuels in these types of power plants contributed approximately 40% of the

2 38 billion tons of CO2 that was produced in 2016 [3]. It is self-evident that if we are planning to

3 reduce the emission of GHGs, the avoidance of CO2 emissions is the first priority, and that the

4 most effective way to curb these emissions is to substitute fossil fuel power plants, starting with

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5 coal-fired plants, with renewable energy sources, primarily with solar and wind that are widely

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6 available.

7 In all the electricity transmission grids on earth the demand for electric power is almost

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8 instantaneously matched by the supply, the immediate production of power in the several power

9 plants that make up the “electric production mix” in the grids. Base-load units primarily use the

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Rankine cycle with nuclear or coal as the fuels. Intermediate- and peak-load power units chiefly
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11 operate with Brayton and Diesel cycles (or with combined cycles) and primarily use gaseous and

12 liquid hydrocarbons. The last type of power plants are available at will and their operation
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13 follows the fluctuations of the regional power demand.

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14 The vast majority of coal power plants in an electricity grid are base-load units that cannot be
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15 switched on and off frequently. The power production from these units may be somewhat

16 reduced – to approximately 80% of their rated capacity by steam throttling. However, frequent
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17 stoppages and substantial power reduction in steam power plants damages parts of their

18 machinery and, for this reason, nuclear and coal-fired power plants are base-load units that are
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19 placed in the grid for continuous operation. The fluctuations of the power demand are primarily
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20 met with gas units and, sometimes, with hydroelectric units [5, 3].

21 Solar and wind are benign forms of energy but they are not available when power is demanded

22 by the consumers. For example, during the early evening of August 20, when the heavy use of

23 a/c systems generates very high electricity demand in Texas and similar regions around the

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1 globe, there is no solar power and the feeble wind currents are not sufficient to satisfy the

2 electricity demand. When we contemplate the substitution of the produced electricity from coal

3 with renewable energy sources we stumble on an important limitation, which is best illustrated in

4 the following example:

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5 Photovoltaic (PV) installations produce electric power during the daylight hours only. When a

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6 region produces a high fraction of its total electric energy by solar installations there is a high

7 reduction of the electric power demand from non-solar units during the daylight hours. On the

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8 demand side, the power demand data prove that, during the early daylight hours (from the early

9 morning until noon), the demand for electricity is lower because the ambient temperature is not

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high enough for the a/c units to operate continuously. The high production from the PV systems
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11 in combination with the moderate electricity demand in the grid, causes the demand from the

12 non-solar units to drop in the early hours of the day. The reduction levels are significant to
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13 negatively affect the operation of the base-load units that utilize Rankine cycles and are designed
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14 to continuously produce electric power.

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15 Figure 1 depicts the power demand during a day of June in the ERCOT2 electric grid system,

16 which supplies power to most of the State of Texas, USA. The diurnal electric power demand is
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17 shown in the figure together with the residual demand of the non-renewable electric power units,

18 if the grid had 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% and 50% of its annual electric energy produced by PV and
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19 thermal solar units without energy storage. The power demand from the non-solar units shifts
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20 from the upper solid curve of the current demand to the dashed curves that are labeled by the

21 fraction of the annually generated solar energy. It must be noted in the Figure that the area

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ERCOT is the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, which manages the production and distribution of electric
power and supplies electric power to 92% of the State's residents.

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1 between the current demand and each one of the dashed curves represents the electric energy

2 supplied by solar power.

70,000
Demand from Non-Renewable Sources, MW

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60,000

50,000

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40,000
Current Demand

30,000 10% solar

20% solar

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20,000
30% solar

10,000 40% solar

50% solar
0

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0 4 8 12 16 20 24
Hour of the Day
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Figure 1. Power demand for the non-renewable power plants in the ERCOT grid system of
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Texas when 10-50% of the total annual electric energy is produced by solar units.
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3 It is observed in Figure 1 that the daily demand for the non-solar units significantly dips during
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4 the early daylight hours, when the local irradiance contributes a great deal of power. Such
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5 modified demand curves for the non-solar units have been referred to as U-shaped demand

6 curves [6]. The sharp dip of the dashed curves during the early morning hours implies that power
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7 production from non-solar units in the region must be significantly reduced in order to
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8 accommodate the high energy production of the solar units. It is also apparent in the figure that,

9 if 50% of the annual electricity is produced by solar energy, there are hours during the day when

10 the solar energy systems produce more electric energy than demanded and that during these

11 hours some of the produced energy will have to be wasted. Actually, and because the grid is

12 supplied by several large, base-load, nuclear and coal-fired power plants, which cannot

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1 frequently modulate their energy production, problems with the higher penetration of PV-

2 produced energy start occurring when the demand from the non-renewables drops below 28,000

3 MW a power level that corresponds to approximately 25% of total annual energy produced by

4 the renewables.

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5 The substitution of fossils fuels with wind power runs into the same problems that lead to wasted

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6 power: During the hours of high wind velocity, the power demand for the non-wind units

7 significantly drops to levels where some of the produced electric power cannot be absorbed by

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8 the demand and must be dissipated. This constitutes a severe limitation for the production of

9 solar- and wind-generated electricity for any region of the globe, because it is not practical for

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the base-load power plants to adjust production as frequently as the production from the
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11 renewable energy units fluctuates. A recent study on the adjustment of the power demand in the

12 island Oahu of Hawaii concluded that the production of 40% of the annual electric energy from
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13 wind and solar installations presents “significant operational challenges” and that the challenges
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14 are exacerbated during time periods when the electricity generation from renewables is different
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15 from long-term forecasts [7].

16 In order to avoid this supply-demand mismatch regional authorities of electricity grids will have
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17 to pursue a combination of the following [3, 6]:

18 1. Offer incentives with a program for the hourly pricing of power to control and adjust the
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19 electric power demand by the consumers.

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20 2. Reduce the number of base-load units (primarily coal and nuclear) or completely

21 eliminate them in favor of units that may be switched on and off rapidly.

22 3. Install utility-level storage capacity.

23 4. Offer incentives to centrally control the a/c part of power demand, which is a significant

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1 factor in the demand-supply mismatch, using chilled water storage [3].

2 All four options necessitate significant investment in equipment by the electricity production and

3 distribution corporations (“utilities” in the USA) or by the consumers. This will increase the

4 electric power from renewable sources cost to the consumers.

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5 Energy storage with high penetration of renewables is emphasized in [8], which underscores the

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6 difference between the total seasonal and annual energy produced by renewable sources and the

7 demand for electric power. At the local level, when the conversion of buildings is planned to

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8 Zero Energy Buildings (ZEBs) or Grid Independent Buildings (GIBs) a recent study [9]

9 concluded that, in several large USA cities, the conversion of buildings to ZEBs will be limited

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to about 20% of the buildings because of the existing infrastructure and the transformation of the
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11 demand curve to the U-shaped curve. For the higher penetration of solar energy into the

12 residential and commercial building markets, GIBs that have energy storage systems should be
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13 designed and planned.

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14 The most encouraging, currently available storage methods, their potential storage capacities,
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15 and current costs have been the subjects of two recent studies [10, 11]. It must be noted,

16 however, that when large energy storage systems are to be planned, not all the available energy
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17 storage systems are suitable, because the storage capacity of some of the systems (e.g. capacitors,

18 ultra-capacitors, springs, flywheels, etc.) is very low to be used at the utility level. A careful
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19 examination of the available high-energy storage capacity systems reveals that the only realistic
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20 energy storage systems for an electric grid are the pumped hydraulic systems (PHSs) and

21 chemical storage systems, most likely hydrogen storage. Battery-based systems may be used in

22 smaller residential and small-commercial establishment applications for diurnal storage [11, 12]

23 but they are not suitable for seasonal and utility-level storage. A recent study [13] carried a

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1 simulation of PHS in India and highlighted the advantages to using such systems for diurnal and

2 seasonal wind power storage. Hydrogen has also been proposed for energy storage in GIBs

3 (residential buildings) [9, 14] as well as for high temperature residential applications, such as

4 cooking, albeit at significant exergy loss [15].

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5 The subject of this study is CO2 production avoidance by the substitution of the currently used

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6 fossil fuel energy sources with renewables in an entire and very large electricity grid system, the

7 ERCOT interconnection system (ERCOT) that serves most of the State of Texas, USA. With

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8 28.3 million population and $1.7 trillion GDP, Texas is the second most populous state in the

9 USA. If the State were an independent country it would have been the 10th largest world

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economy, following Italy. The ERCOT is the independent electric grid system that supplies
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11 electricity to 92% of the population in the State. The total annual electricity distribution by the

12 system in 2015 was 349 TWh. For comparison, Italy consumed 309 TWh, and the UK 331 TWh
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13 [1]. The generating capacity of the grid system is approximately 78,000 MW installed (rated)
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14 electric capacity, of which a maximum of 73,308 MW was used during July 19, 2018 [16].
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15 The market of this giant electricity grid and the region were chosen for this fossil-with-

16 renewables substitution for the following reasons:

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17 1. The region has a very large population and economy. Solutions that may work in Texas

18 will also work without scaling in all the advanced economies of the world.
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19 2. The region has very high potential for the production of renewable energy from wind and
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20 solar and is one of the prime areas in the USA for investments in the production of solar

21 and wind power.

22 3. Most of the State of Texas is supplied by a single and independent system operator, the

23 ERCOT, one of nine such systems in the USA.

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70,000

60,000
Power demand, MW

50,000

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40,000

30,000

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21-Jan
20,000 21-Mar
21-Jul

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10,000

0
0 4 8 12 16 20 24

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Hour of the day
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Figure 2. Typical electric power demand during three workdays of the year 2016.
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1 4. The region is typical of the Southern part of USA and most regions of the globe at the
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2 same geographic latitude, where the high summer temperatures and the recent widespread
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3 use of a/c create high electric power demand during the latter part of the days and early

4 evenings.
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5 This study simulates the electric power demand and supply in the region served by ERCOT and

6 determines the renewable energy systems’ capacity for the substitution of the fossil fuel power
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7 plants within ERCOT. The paper also determines the capacity of the needed energy storage
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8 systems that would affect this substitution. Through hour-by-hour demand-supply simulations

9 we calculate the capacity of a distributed, utility-level storage system that may be used by

10 ERCOT; and the maximum hourly, daily and annual storage capacity needed. The emphasis of

11 this paper is not in the details of the fossil-to-renewables substitution, but the determination of: a)

12 the total PV and wind power installations capacity that will enable the substitution; b) the level

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1 of renewable penetration, when the development of storage capacity becomes necessary; and c)

2 the necessary energy storage capacity for the substitution of only the coal installations and of all

3 the fossil fuel installations with wind and solar.

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4 2. Power Demand and Production in ERCOT

5 The electric power demand in ERCOT during three typical workdays of the year 2016 is shown

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6 in Figure 2. On January 21 heating (supplied primarily from natural gas) is needed in most of the

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7 state and auxiliary electric power (fans and blowers in the HVAC systems) is consumed to power

8 the HVAC systems. On March 21 heating is not necessary in most of the regions supplied by the

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grid and the use of a/c is very low, except in the southernmost part of the State for a few hours of
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10 the day. Minimum power demand in the entire electric grid region occurs on days like this. On

11 July 21 the a/c power demand is very high throughout the geographical region served by
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12 ERCOT. The high demand and the shift of the maximum power in the demand curve from the
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13 morning to the afternoon hours is the manifestation of the effect of a/c usage in the entire region.
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14 The Figure also shows that the electric power demand variability during the summer days is

15 significantly higher than that of the spring and winter days: the ratio of the daily maximum to the
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16 daily minimum power demand is 1.71 for the day in July; 1.42 for the day in March; and 1.45 for

17 the day in January.

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18 The grid is supplied by a variety of electric power generating units of all types including:
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19 nuclear, coal, natural gas, wind, solar PV, and hydroelectric. Figure 3 shows the primary energy

20 sources (fuel mix) that produced the annual electric energy in the ERCOT interconnect during

21 the period 2006-2016. It is observed that natural gas and coal supplied most of the electric

22 energy for the grid during this period. In 2017 the contribution of these two sources was

23 approximately 69% of the total, with coal supplying 31% and natural gas 38% of the total annual

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400

350
Electric Energy Produced, TWh

300
Nat. Gas Coal Nuclear Wind
250
Hydro Other Total

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200

150

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100

50

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0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

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Figure 3. The energy sources mix that supplied electric energy in ERCOT in the
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period 2006-2016.
1 energy production. The “other” energy sources primarily include PV solar. It is apparent that, at
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2 present, solar energy does not significantly contribute to the production of electricity in the grid.

3 On the contrary, wind power produced approximately 17% of the total annual electric energy in
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4 2016 and the production from wind surpassed the production from nuclear fuels in 2015. More
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5 important, the rate of growth of wind-generated electric energy is the highest in the USA with

6 the contribution of wind energy expected to exceed 21% by 2025. During 2016 the maximum
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7 electric power demand was 71,093 MW and the minimum 25,107 MW, which makes the base-
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8 load demand in the grid approximately 30,000 MW. The ERCOT interconnect has very limited
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9 connections with other grids in the region. The total annual energy exchanged with these grids

10 (primarily one in Mexico) was very low, approximately 1.8 TWh, which is approximately 0.5%

11 of the total energy produced.

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1 3. Substitution of Fossil Fuels with Renewables

2 The production and emission of CO2 by coal power plants is approximately 1.15 kg per kWh of

3 electric energy produced, the highest emissions of all fossil fuel power plants. The corresponding

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4 quantity for natural gas power plants is 0.75 kg of CO2 per kWh and slightly depends on the

5 composition of the natural gas mined in the region [3]. It has become apparent in the last three

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6 decades that the higher CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is the major contributor to the GCC.

7 CO2 is considered an environmental pollutant and efforts have been made to reduce its global

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8 emissions, which currently exceed 38 billion tons [3]. Because coal units emit the highest

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9 amount of CO2 per kWh, it is sensible for regional and national electricity grids to gradually
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10 substitute coal in favor of renewables and other forms of primary energy (e.g. nuclear) that do

11 not contribute to the GCC. After the retirement of the coal power plants it is also sensible to try
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12 and retire the units that burn other fossil fuels, typically natural gas units (both with and without

13 combined cycles and cogeneration) and diesel power plants.

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14 The data in Figure 1 and similar data show unequivocally that this substitution is not a simple
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15 matter, because the diurnal electricity demand curve is transformed to the U-shaped demand

16 curve (with PV units) or a different shape (e.g. with wind turbines) that also exhibits sizable dips
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17 with the diurnal and seasonal power demand fluctuations [17]. When a large number of wind and
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18 PV units are constructed in the area served by ERCOT and the contribution of wind and solar
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19 energy exceeds the range 25%-30% of the annual energy production, there is a large number of

20 time periods during a given year, when the power demanded by the remaining electricity units

21 becomes negative. The implications of the latter are:

22 a) Several of the other power plants must be shut down during these periods of time, and

23 b) The excess electric power must be dissipated and wasted.

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1 This limitation becomes particularly acute with peak wind power production, which is often

2 produced during the early morning hours, when the electricity demand in all electric grids is at

3 minimum levels. Actually, the ERCOT grid has already proven that it cannot absorb all the wind

4 power produced, when unexpectedly high demand fluctuations occur: During the year 2016 the

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5 grid recorded 74 hours when the spot prices of wind-generated electricity were negative. This

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6 implies that the base-load power plants in operation could not have reduced their production to

7 accommodate the wind-generated electric power. During these short time periods the excess

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8 power was dissipated by re-routing it in the transmission lines [16, 18].

9 Shutting down the several types of base-load steam units that operate on the Rankine cycle for a

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few hours during a day is unrealistic, because the units need several hours to start and produce
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11 full power. This becomes an insurmountable problem for the nuclear power plants, which utilize

12 the method of boron shimming for the control of nuclear reactivity and thermal power. Most of
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13 the existing PWR and BWR nuclear power plants in the globe are of this type and require several
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14 days to produce full power when starting from cold. The larger coal-fired units also require 4-6
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15 hours to start from cold. Such time lags is high enough to preclude repeated diurnal electric

16 power production fluctuations that would follow the power demand. Frequently repeated power
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17 production fluctuations of steam power plants, which utilize a variation of the Rankine cycle, is

18 detrimental to their overall thermal efficiency; and causes severe damage to their equipment. For
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19 this reason, these power plants operate continuously at a fairly constant power level. It becomes
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20 apparent from data on electric power demand that, if the numbers of wind and solar energy units

21 increase, for these installations to produce an additional 25% of the total annual energy in the

22 ERCOT region, significant modifications must be made in the entire power generation system

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1 for the grid to maintain its flexibility and to reliably supply the consumers with electric power at

2 the time when this power is needed.

3 A solution to this problem is to replace the steam power plants (coal and nuclear) with gas

4 turbines and diesel engines that are flexible enough to follow the diurnal variability of the

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5 electric power demand. This option has three significant disadvantages:

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6 1. It leaves out production from the nuclear units that produce cheap electricity without any

7 CO2 emissions and no contribution to the GCC problem. Effectively, this option also

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8 eliminates the construction of new zero-CO2 emitting nuclear power plants.

9 2. The natural gas and diesel turbines emit CO2. The substitution only partly mitigates the

10 GCC problem.
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11 3. Significant investment for the new engines is requires, which will increase the price of

12 the electric energy produced.

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13 A second option is to develop storage capacity; to store the excess energy produced by the
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14 renewable sources and use the energy at a later time of the day or season of the year. This
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15 option, which is based on the storage of a fraction of the energy produced, may be extended

16 from coal to the other fossil fuel power generation units in order to achieve a totally carbon-
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17 free electric power production. This option also entails the disadvantage of high investment

18 and increased energy cost, but also has the beneficial effect of eliminating the inefficient
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19 peak-power units – older gas turbines with very low efficiency and capacity factors – that
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20 that are only used for short periods during a year.

21 4. The Energy Production and Energy Storage Systems

22 Three energy storage systems are feasible for the utility-level energy storage, which is necessary

23 for the ERCOT grid:

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1 1. Pumped Hydroelectric Systems (PHSs) [3, 11].

2 2. Hydrogen supplied to fuel cells, which are Direct Energy Conversion devices and are not

3 subjected to Carnot limitations. [19, 20, 11, 3].

4 3. Chemical batteries [11, 3, 21].

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5 Of these, PHSs are not a feasible option for the region served by ERCOT, because the region is

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6 relatively flat and does not have the river valleys and the high altitude locations that are

7 necessary for effective PHSs. Batteries and hydrogen storage are feasible to be used as

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8 distributed storage systems, with small districts and groups of buildings developing shared

9 capacity. The specific energies of lithium batteries, lead batteries, and hydrogen are

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approximately 0.4 kWh/kg, 0.03 kWh/kg and 31.2 kWh/kg [3]. Obviously, battery storage
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11 systems would weight by far more than hydrogen systems. In the short term (e.g. the diurnal

12 cycle) solid-state batteries have higher round trip efficiencies than the hydrogen-fuel-cell
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13 combination storage. However, batteries suffer from self-discharge (internal drift) in the long
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14 term because they dissipate a significant fraction of their stored energy over longer periods of
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15 time. The self-discharge prohibits the seasonal energy storage of energy (e.g. from spring when

16 winds are high, to summer) with battery systems.

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17 Because of the high weight of the battery systems and because of their long-term energy losses

18 due to self-discharge, it was decided to perform the simulations with hydrogen as the storage
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19 medium. It must be noted that the technology for the production, storage, and conversion of
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20 hydrogen is sufficiently advanced for the hydrogen storage systems to be implemented at a large

21 scale: Electrolytic processes for the production of hydrogen have been used for almost two

22 centuries. On the chemical-to-mechanical energy conversion side, fuel cells have also been used

23 for almost two centuries. At present, several commercial automotive corporations manufacture

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Photovoltaics

Controller and MPPT

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Inverter

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Electricity
Fuel Grid

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Cells

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Hydrogen
Storage Systems
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Wind Turbines
Water Electrolysis
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Figure 4. Schematic diagram of the system for the production, storage, and distribution of electric
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energy.

1 cars and buses that operate with hydrogen fuel cells and carry hydrogen in storage tanks at
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2 pressures that reach 700 bar.

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3 Figure 4 is the schematic diagram of the major components of a system that will produce, store,
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4 and distribute renewable electric power in an electrify grid system, such as the ERCOT

5 interconnect. A large number of PV panels and wind turbines generate electric power from the

6 solar irradiance and the wind respectively. Whenever there is sufficient demand, the produced

7 electric power is directly fed to the electric grid. When the demand of the grid is too low to

8 absorb all the electric energy produced by the renewable sources, part of the energy is supplied

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1 to satisfy the demand of the grid and the rest is diverted to water electrolysis systems that

2 produce hydrogen, a chemical compound with very high Gibbs’ free energy and very high

3 specific energy storage capacity. The hydrogen gas is locally stored in hydrogen tanks under

4 pressure. When the power demand is high and excess power is demanded by the consumers, the

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5 chemical energy of hydrogen is converted to electric energy in fuel cells and is fed back to the

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6 grid via a dc-to-ac power inverter.

7 The entire region supplied by ERCOT has very high wind energy potential, especially in the

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8 northern region – the Texas Panhandle – and the southern and eastern coastal areas (the Gulf of

9 Mexico) where the yearly average wind velocity exceeds 10.5 m/s. The solar energy potential of

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the State of Texas, which lies between 26o and 36.5o northern latitude and has very few cloudy
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11 days, is equally high: the yearly average irradiance on a 30o inclined, stationary surface facing

12 the south is 243 W/m2, with peak irradiance exceeding 1,180 W/m2 in most of the south part of
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13 the State. Because of this, the State has attracted a great deal of investment in wind power since
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14 2005 and significant PV investment. Texas is one of the few regions on the planet with high solar
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15 and wind energy potential and is a good candidate for the substitution of fossil fuel energy by

16 these two renewable forms.

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17 Because solar and wind power are diffuse energy sources and locally produced in several parts of

18 the region supplied by the electric grid, it is not necessary for the hydrogen tanks to be very large
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19 and centrally located. Local hydrogen gas production and storage in smaller tanks placed
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20 throughout the State (e.g. in the yards of households, open spaces close to industrial installations,

21 and roofs of larger buildings) will achieve the storage objective. In addition, local production and

22 storage will minimize the transmission losses in the electricity grid, which exceed 20% on the

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1 high demand summer days. The local production of electric energy locally from PV and smaller

2 wind generators always saves energy from the avoidance of transmission losses.

3 Small amounts of energy are dissipated in the other equipment associated with the electric

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4 energy production and storage system shown in Figure 4. The efficiencies of the Maximum

5 Power Point Trackers (MPPTs) are higher than 95% [22]. In our calculations these higher

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6 efficiencies are lumped with the efficiencies of electrolysis and of the fuel cells.

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80,000

70,000

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60,000
Demand (MWh)

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50,000

40,000
M

30,000

20,000
Daily Max
D

10,000 Daily Min

0
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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Day of the Year
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Figure 5. Daily minimum and maximum hourly electric energy demand in the ERCOT

interconnect.
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7 The entire production-storage system must be robust and flexible enough to satisfy the diurnal,
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8 seasonal and annual power demand fluctuations, which are significant and become higher during

9 the summer months, when the a/c demand is very high in the entire region served by ERCOT.

10 Figure 5 depicts the daily minimum and daily maximum demand for the year 2016. It is apparent

11 that the maximum daily demand occurs during the summer and the minimum during the spring

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1 and autumn. The ratio of the maximum to the minimum demand for the day is a measure of the

2 power demand variability. For the year in Figure 5, the maximum ratio was 1.88 on June 8 and

3 the minimum ratio was 1.17 on November 19. It is also apparent in the Figure that maximum

4 demand variability occurs in the summer, as a consequence of the high usage of a/c throughout

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5 the region served by the grid.

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6 5. Governing Equations

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7 The fossil-to-renewables substitution is accomplished with the development of several wind

8 farms and PV installations, which should be placed strategically within in the ERCOT region to

9
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reduce the energy production and transmission losses. When the installed PV cells and wind
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10 turbines produce more power than the demand, the leftover energy is stored to be used at a later

11 time. The hydrogen gas is produced by electrolysis, it is compressed, and is stored locally at a
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12 maximum pressure of 500 bar. The hydrogen-to-electricity conversion occurs in fuel cells, which
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13 typically have higher efficiencies than conversion processes based on the combustion of fuels.
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14 The hydrogen production and hydrogen conversion processes entail thermodynamic

15 irreversibilities, which are included in the efficiency of the electrolysis and the efficiency of fuel
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16 cells [11, 23, 19].

17 During a given hour of the year, the electric energy production of the PV cells is:
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18 E s P i = Aη s i S& i t , (1)
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19 where S& i is the total irradiance on the PV panels, which includes both direct and diffuse

20 irradiance; A is the installed area of the panels; ηsi is the efficiency of the PV cells, which varies

21 because it depends on the local temperature; and t the time period considered. The electricity

22 demand data used are available in hourly steps and for this reason the time period in all the

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1 calculations is t= 1 hour. With this choice of the time period, when the irradiance is given in

2 kW/m2, the energy production is calculated in kWh/m2.

3 The efficiency of the PV cells is almost constant at temperatures below 25 oC, and equal to the

4 manufacturer’s efficiency, ηsc. This efficiency drops linearly at higher temperatures by 1% for

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5 every 4-6 oC [24]:

ηsi = ηsc − ksc (T − 25)

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6 for T > 25o C . (2)

7 The temperature sensitivity coefficient, ksc, is in the range 0.002 to 0.006 oC-1 [24]. For the

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8 calculations of this study, the value ksc=0.0025 was used.

9 Three-blade, horizontal axis wind turbines are considered for the utilization of the wind power.

10
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The characteristics of the turbines used in this study are: rated power 3 MW; diameter 90m;
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11 tower height 75 m; rated velocity 15m/s; cut in velocity 3.5 m/s; and cut out velocity 25 m/s.3
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12 The energy production from a wind turbine during the time period, t, is:

π
13 E wPi = η wi D 2 ρ V 3t (3)
D

,
8
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14 where V is the prevailing velocity of the air at the hub of the turbine; ηwi is the efficiency of the

15 turbine, which is assumed to be constant; ρ is the air density, which has an average value of 1.19
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16 kg/m3; and D is the wind turbine diameter. As with the PV system the time period, t, for the wind

17 turbines is also 1 hour.

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18 The wind velocity at the turbine rotor hub is calculated using a typical turbulent boundary layer
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19 equation with the 1/7th velocity profile:

1/ 7
V (H )  H 
20 =  , (4)
V ( h)  h 

3
These are the approximate characteristics (operational variables) of two commercial brands of wind turbines.
Several of these turbines have recently been installed in the region.

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1 where h is the height of the instrument at the meteorological station (9.1 m in this case) and H is

2 the height at the turbine hub (75 m) . Yearly solar and wind data in the State are available with a

3 time period of one hour and enable us to calculate several variables including the local

4 insolation, S& , on flat surfaces of any orientation, and the wind velocity at the turbine hub

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5 during all hours of the year [25].

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6 The electric energy production during a given hour of the year, i, is the sum of the energy

7 produced by all the wind turbines and all the PV installations:

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8 EPi = EwPi + EsPi . (5)

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9 The ERCOT interconnect is served by two nuclear power plants with a total of four nuclear
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10 reactors and total rated power 4,985 MW. The nuclear power plants and the coal power plants

11 are currently the base-load units in the electricity grid. Since the nuclear power plants do not
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12 contribute to the GCC problem, it is stipulated that in the new power production system the

13 nuclear units continue with their current operations and constantly produce 4,985 MW of base-
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14 load power.
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15 In the first part of the calculations, only the coal power plants are substituted with renewable

16 units; in the second part all fossil fuel units are substituted with renewables. The calculations
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17 determine the necessary storage capacity for the satisfaction of the hourly demand and the

18 reliable operation of the electricity grid system. When the production of solar and wind energy is
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19 higher than the demand during a given time period, i, the excess energy produced is stored and

20 used at a later period of the year, when the production by the renewables is not sufficient (e.g.

21 because it is nighttime or because there is low wind). The energy stored or taken from the storage

22 system during an hour is equal to the difference between production and demand:

23 δESi = EPi − EDi , (6)

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1 where δESi is the change in the stored energy during the time-period, i; EPi is the energy

2 produced; and EDi is the energy consumed during the same time-period.

3 The conversion of the electric energy to the chemical energy of hydrogen and the subsequent

4 conversion this gas to electric energy are irreversible processes. For this reason, not all the

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5 energy diverted to the storage system is converted to hydrogen, to be stored and used later. The

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6 lost energy in the conversion processes is taken into account in the calculations by the

7 efficiencies of the electrolysis process, ηel; and of the fuel cell energy conversion efficiency, ηfc.

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8 Since the stored energy level at the hour i is known, the energy storage level at the hour i+1 is:

ESi +1 = ESi + (δESi )η el if E Pi ≥ E Di

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9 , (7)
ESi +i = ESi − (δESi ) / η fc if E Pi < E Di
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10 where ESi is the energy storage level at the hour, i. The efficiencies used in the calculations are:

11 ηel= 78% [23], and ηfc= 75% [26].

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12 Electric grids must be reliable and capable to supply the electric utility customers at all times,
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13 even when power supply problems arise. Since the production of both the wind and solar energy
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14 cannot be determined with accuracy, in order to ensure the reliability of the electric grid system a

15 constraint was used in the calculations that the storage system does not discharge completely but
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16 contains enough hydrogen at all times of the year to fulfill its mission and, additionally, to

17 provide the grid with power for a minimum of ten days, when power production may be
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18 interrupted. This constraint implies that the stored energy in the entire system does not attain
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19 zero at any time in the year, but maintains a minimum value. With this minimum, we ensure that

20 in periods of system failure, equipment malfunction, or adverse weather conditions that

21 temporarily reduce the energy produced by renewables, the grid administration and operators

22 will have enough time to respond to the situation. With the leeway of the ten days, the operators

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1 will be able to repair the system, purchase hydrogen from outside sources, or import electric

2 energy from outside of the grid to ensure the uninterrupted supply of electric power.

3 6. Results and Discussion

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4 A. Substitution of Coal Power Plants

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5 The coal power plants contribute 31% of the total electric energy supplied to the ERCOT grid.

6 To model the coal-to-solar substitution, sufficient solar and wind installations are added as well

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7 as storage capacity that produce and store enough energy to satisfy the hourly demand in the

8 region. Table A shows the storage requirements when the coal production is reduced from 31%

9
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to 0% and equal annual electric energy quantities are produced by the solar and the wind units. It
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10 is observed that no energy storage is necessary when the coal reduction is up to 25% and that a

11 very small quantity, approximately 73,000 m3 of H2 under 500 bar pressure, need to be stored
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12 and used at a later time period, when the renewables supply the entire 31% of the currently coal-
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13 produced electricity.
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14 Table A. Storage requirements for the elimination of coal power plants in ERCOT. The

15 total annual production of solar and wind units is equal.

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Coal % % Substituted % Solar % Wind Max Storage, MWh Max Storage, m3 of H2

31 0 0 0 - -
26 5 2.5 2.5 - -
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21 10 5 5 - -
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16 15 7.5 7.5 - -
11 20 10 10 - -
6 25 12.5 12.5 - -
0 31 15.5 15.5 74,238 73,000
16

17 Because the storage of energy entails significant additional capital investment as well as energy

18 losses, one may seek to minimize the energy stored by varying the percentages of power

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1 produced by wind and solar. We performed a trial-and-error calculation with the objective of

2 minimizing the energy stored for the substitution of coal and determined that the coal-with

3 renewables substitution is achieved when 77% of the additional energy produced is generated by

4 wind and 23% by solar units. In this case, the maximum hydrogen storage requirement drops to

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5 approximately 22,800 m3. The rated power of the additional wind units is 21,600 MW and of the

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6 PV units 9,100 MW. The additional renewable units would produce 109.1 TWh of electric

7 energy per year and are sufficient to retire all the coal power plants in Texas. The CO2 emissions

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8 avoidance from the coal-with-renewables substitution in the entire ERCOT grid is 125 million

9 tons (125*109 kg of CO2) approximately 0.33% of the global CO2 emissions in 2016.

10
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Figure 6 shows the hourly storage level of the hydrogen gas in Mmol and MWh. It is observed in
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11 this Figure that most of the storage process occurs in the spring to be used in August, when the

12 a/c demand is very high, while the daylight hours and the winds are far from their peak values.
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13 B. Substitution of All Fossil Fuel Units with Renewables

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14 The second part of the calculations pertains to the substitution of all fossil fuel power plants in
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15 ERCOT with wind and solar units. This task includes all the coal-fired power plants, which

16 currently contribute 31% of the annual electric energy, and the natural gas units, which produce
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17 and additional 38% of the annual electric energy in ERCOT. Calculations were performed for the

18 following three cases:

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19 1. Photovoltaics provide all the additional energy.

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20 2. Wind turbines provide all the additional energy.

21 3. A combination of wind and solar units provide the additional energy in a way that the H2

22 storage requirements are minimized.

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400 30,000

350 Mmol 25,000

300 MWh
20,000

Storage, MWh
250

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Storage, Mmol

200 15,000

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150
10,000

100
5,000

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50

0 0
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Hours

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Figure 6. Hourly hydrogen storage requirements for the substitution of coal with
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renewables in the ERCOT interconnect.
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1 Table B shows the summary of the results of the first two sets of calculations. It is observed that
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2 the substitution of the fossil fuel power plants with only PVs or wind turbines entails very high
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3 storage requirements, in addition to the installation of the PV units and the wind turbines.

4 Table B. Summary of the calculations when percentages of fossil-produced power is

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5 substituted with PVs or wind turbines.

% Power Power Rating of Power Rating of

Substituted PV, MW Storage (m3) wind Turbines, MW Storage (m3)
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0 0 0 0 0
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10 14,442,320 0 8,804,875 0
20 28,884,639 0 17,609,750 0
31 44,771,190 635,702 27,295,705 666,621
40 57,769,278 4,221,981 35,219,499 4,583,795
50 72,211,597 9,711,503 44,024,374 11,944,427
60 86,653,917 13,248,587 52,829,249 19,408,217
69 99,652,004 14,418,415 60,753,043 24,709,914
6

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14,000,000 90

80
12,000,000
Storage Needed
70

Fraction of Wind and Solar, %

10,000,000

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Fraction of Wind
Storage Needed, m3

60

8,000,000 Fraction of Solar

50

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6,000,000 40

30

SC
4,000,000
20
2,000,000
10

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0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
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% of Total Energy Substituted with Wind and Solar

Figure 7. Fraction of wind and solar energy needed for minimum storage vs. the percentage of
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fossil fuel energy substituted.

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1 It is observed in this Table that the storage requirements with 100% wind power substitution are

2 significantly higher than when PVs produce 100% of the needed power. This happens because
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3 the PV power production is highly correlated with the a/c usage: when there is a great deal of
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4 irradiance, the atmospheric temperature increases to levels where the grid customers use the

5 electricity-voracious air-conditioning systems.

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6 The energy storage requirements are significantly reduced when a combination of wind and solar
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7 energy is employed. Figure 7 shows the results of the storage minimization calculations for

8 several values of the fraction of the total annual energy to be substituted with renewables. The

9 range of substitution is 0% to 69%, with 69% the currently produced percentage of energy by all

10 the fossil fuels source, which include coal, natural gas, and diesel oil.

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1 It is observed in Figure 7 that storage is needed only when 30% or more of the currently

2 produced energy from fossils is substituted. When the entire energy produced by the fossil fuel

3 power plants is substituted, the storage system capacity is substantial, at approximately 12

4 million m3. This storage capacity corresponds to approximately 1 m3 per household in the region

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5 served by ERCOT. It is also of interest that, for minimum storage capacity, substantially more

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6 wind energy must be produced than solar energy when the coal power plants are substituted

7 alone (31% of the total). However, when the natural gas power units – which currently produce

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8 the intermediate and peak power – are substituted, the contributions of the two renewable

9 sources are approximately equal.

U
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200,000
14,000,000
180,000
Mmol
160,000 12,000,000
M

MWh
140,000
10,000,000
Storage, Mmol

Storage, MWh
120,000
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8,000,000
100,000
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80,000 6,000,000
60,000
4,000,000
40,000
EP

2,000,000
20,000
0 0
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000
C

Hours
AC

Figure 8. Hourly storage requirements for the entire substitution of fossil fuels with

renewables in the ERCOT interconnect.

10 The hourly amount of storage needed, in Mmol of hydrogen and MWh of electricity is shown in

11 Figure 8, where it is observed that, for the total substitution of fossil fuel produced electricity, the

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1 energy storage system must store a maximum of almost 12 million MWh, which corresponds to

2 approximately 180,000 Mmol of hydrogen (360,000 tons).

3 Examples of the diurnal variability of electricity demand and supply and the quantity of energy

4 to and from the storage system are shown in Figures 9 and 10. Figure 9 depicts the diurnal

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60,000 20,000

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50,000 15,000
Energy Demand and Supply, MWh

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Storage Change, MWh

40,000 10,000

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30,000 5,000
AN
20,000 0

10,000 -5,000
M

0 -10,000
D

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day
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Figure 9. Hourly variation of the electric energy demand and supply and change in the level
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of the storage system (dark line, right axis) on a day in March.

5 variability on a day in March when the electricity demand is relatively low, there is almost zero
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6 demand to power a/c systems, and both wind and solar energy contribute to increase the storage.
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7 The blue columns in the Figure denote energy production and the orange columns energy

8 consumed, with both columns represented by the left vertical axis. The change in the storage

9 system is represented by the dark line with the markers and corresponds to the right axis.

10 Because of the higher supply, the storage system has a surplus of 101,900 MWh on the day in

11 March. It is also seen in Figure 9 that, when the solar units do not produce power after the dusk,

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1 at 19:00 hours, and the consumer demand is still high, energy storage provides significant power

2 to the system. Figure 10 depicts similar data for a typical day in July, when the electric energy

3 demand for a/c is high and a great deal of the electricity demand is satisfied by the storage

4 system. As with Figure 9 On that day the storage system provides approximately 154,000 MWh.

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5 As with Figure 9, the blue columns in the Figure denote energy production and the orange

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6 columns energy consumed, with both columns represented by the left vertical axis. The change

7 in the storage system is represented by the dark line with the markers and corresponds to the

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8 right axis. The dip in the electricity supply and the storage change line after the sunset (hours

9 20:00 and 21:00) is also prominent in this Figure.

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AN
70,000 5,000

60,000
Energy Demand and Supply, MWh

0
M

Storage Change (MWh)

50,000
-5,000
40,000
D

-10,000
30,000
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-15,000
20,000

-20,000
EP

10,000

0 -25,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
C

Hour of the Day

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Figure 10. Hourly variation of the electric energy demand and supply and change in the

level of the storage system (dark line, right axis) on a day in July.

10 It must be noted that the three scenarios considered here are straightforward substitutions of coal

11 and natural gas power plants with the two widely available renewable energy sources, wind and

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1 solar. Several other scenarios are possible to be implemented that may involve the partial use of

2 gas turbines in the region – albeit at the environmental cost of CO2 emissions. A fraction of the

3 more efficient combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) that currently produce electric power may

4 come in the optimization considerations to further minimize storage requirements. All the

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5 possible scenarios point to the fact that the significantly higher use of wind and solar energy in

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6 Texas and the desired substantial CO2 emissions reduction will necessitate considerable

7 investment in utility-level energy storage that may only be achieved with hydrogen storage

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8 systems. Such considerations lead to needed research and development in the following areas:

9 1. Suitable energy storage systems.

10
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2. Improved electrolysis and fuel cell efficiencies.
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11 3. Better understanding and better communication of the criteria for the fossil fuel to

12 renewables substitution.
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13 4. Optimization of the regional and national practices for the higher use of renewables and
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14 energy storage.
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15 5. Integration of solar and wind units with other non-carbon energy sources, such as geothermal

16 energy units that provide base-load power [27] and hydroelectric units that may be used for
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17 base-load as well as intermediate-load power units [3].

18 Table C shows the power ratings of the wind and solar installations needed for the production of
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19 an annual quantity of electric energy that corresponds to the fraction (percentage) of the fossil
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20 fuel plants as indicated in the first column, which represents the fraction of the annually

21 produced electric energy. The Table also shows the minimum storage capacity that is necessary

22 for the substitution; and the CO2 avoidance resulting from the substitution of fossil fuel power

23 plants by renewable solar and wind installations. The entire set of coal-fired plants in ERCOT is

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1 substituted at the 31% level. The results in Table C are obtained by an iterative optimization

2 method with objective function the minimization of the energy storage capacity. The calculations

3 were performed hourly with the constraint that demand and supply match during every hour of

4 the year.

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5 Table C. Total energy produced by solar and wind sources; storage capacity; and CO2

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6 avoidance for the fossil-to-renewables substitution in the ERCOT electric grid.

Percent Production Production CO2

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Substitution of From Wind, From Solar, Storage Avoidance,
3
Total Energy TWh TWh Capacity, m million tons
30 82.4 23.2 6,018 121
31 84.0 25.1 22,833 125

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35 85.0 38.2 239,423 136
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40 85.9 54.9 1,024,120 149
45 87.1 71.3 2,372,884 162
50 89.8 86.2 4,171,041 175
55 96.8 96.8 6,216,024 188
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60 103.5 107.7 8,350,122 202

65 114.4 114.4 10,467,485 215
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69 119.0 123.9 12,119,438 225

7
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8 The 225 million tons of CO2 avoidance for the substitution of all the fossil fuel power plants

9 correspond to 0.59% of the 2016 global CO2 emissions [28].

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10 Conclusions
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11 The production of electric energy from renewable sources is fairly low at present. Currently all
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12 the energy production from renewables may be easily absorbed by the fluctuating demand of the

13 electric power grids. However, when a higher fraction of renewable energy (especially wind- and

14 solar-generated electricity) is produced within an electricity grid, the demand from other power

15 generating units considerably shifts. This effect, in combination with the inability of several

16 types of base-load power plants to meet the diurnal fluctuations of the demand for electric power,
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1 reduces the flexibility of the electricity grid to supply the needed power to the consumers. When

2 the contribution of wind and solar energy exceeds 25-30% of the total annual electric energy

3 produced, the demand from the other power plants drops to very low levels and may even

4 become negative for short time periods. This implies that the energy produced by solar and wind

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5 power cannot be absorbed by the consumers’ demand. Energy storage becomes necessary during

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6 these time periods.

7 Of the available energy storage methods hydrogen storage is the most favorable for utility-level

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8 storage. The analysis of the hourly electricity demand data for the ERCOT interconnect, which

9 supplies 92% of electricity for Texas consumers, reveals that: for the substitution of all the coal-

10
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fired generation units by wind and solar energy, a small storage capacity, approximately 22,800
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11 m3 of hydrogen gas, at 500 bar is required. The entire electric grid demand absorbs rather easily

12 this renewable energy addition, which results in 125 million tons of CO2 avoidance per year,
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13 0.3% of the total global emissions.

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14 For the substitution of all the fossil fuel power plants (coal, natural gas, and diesel) the energy
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15 storage capacity must increase to a minimum of 12 million m3 (approximately 1 m3 per

16 household) and the additional energy is equally contributed by wind and solar. The substitution
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17 solely by wind and solely by solar energy necessitates the development of higher capacity energy

18 storage facilities. If the entire set of fossil fuel generating units in ERCOT is substituted with
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19 renewables, the CO2 emissions avoidance will be 225 million tons, which correspond to 0.59%
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20 of the total global emissions. This would be a small but very noteworthy step to curtail the global

21 carbon emissions.

22 Acknowledgements

23 This research was partly supported by the Tex Moncrief Chair of Engineering at TCU.

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Highlights
• The production of electricity from renewables does not match the demand.
• At renewable penetrations greater than 25-30% energy storage is necessary.
• Energy storage becomes a limitation to the further development of renewables.
• Less storage is needed for the substitution of coal with wind and solar energy.
• Significant storage is required for the substitution of all fossil fuel plants.

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