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Electric Vehicles: Technology Brief
Electric Vehicles: Technology Brief
TECHNOLOGY BRIEF
February 2017
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This brief benefited greatly from reviews by Dolf Gielen and Nicholas Wagner (IRENA),
Holger Hesse and Peter Keil (Technical University of Munich-ESS) and Bert Witkamp
(AVERE),
Contributing authors: Lewis M. Fulton (UC Davis), Amr Seleem, Francisco Boshell,
Alessandra Salgado and Deger Saygin (IRENA)
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Contents
Highlights............................................................................................................................................5
Smart charging......................................................................................................................27
Material requirements........................................................................................................ 38
Bibliography...................................................................................................................................44
Insights for Policy Makers
»» There are two main types of electric »» Despite on-going battery
vehicles (EV): battery electric performance improvements and
vehicles (BEV) that use only cost reductions, EVs still face
batteries for energy storage and potentially important obstacles.
must be plugged in to be recharged, New models to be introduced
and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2017 and 2018 will be able to
(PHEV) that have both batteries and drive up to 300 kilometres (km)
liquid-fuel storage and refuelling per recharge, but battery packs up
systems. to 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh), even if
»» The global stock of electric vehicles battery costs drop from their current
levels of around USD 350/ kWh to
(EVs) reached 1 million during 2015
USD 150 kWh in the future, would
and passed the 2 million mark in
cost USD 9 000, much more than
2016. This rapid rise has been led
the drive systems of today’s internal
by China, the US, Japan and several
combustion engine vehicles. Fuel
European countries.
savings will help pay this back,
»» The uptake of EVs is the result of especially for high-mileage drivers.
several factors, including strong
»» Battery-electric vehicles provide
technological progress, cost
zero-vehicle-emissions driving
reductions (especially batteries),
(for both carbon dioxide (CO2)
and policy support, including
and pollutant emissions), but
purchase incentives, driving
the “upstream” CO2 can be
and parking access advantages,
substantial, for example in
and increased public charging
countries with dominant coal power
infrastructure availability.
generation. Electric grids must be
»» Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) considerably decarbonised (to
dominated sales over plug-in hybrid 600 grams (g)/ kWh or less) for EVs
electric vehicles in most countries to have a CO2 advantage relative
until 2014, but plug-in hybrid to similar sized hybrid internal
electric vehicle (PHEV) sales have combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
grown rapidly in the past two years Carbon intensities will need to
and as of early 2016 were nearly continuously improve in the future,
equal to BEV sales worldwide. since hybrids and other ICE vehicles
PHEVs have a considerable range will also become more efficient. EVs
advantage but sacrifice all-electric also produce no direct air pollution
driving to achieve this. and reduce noise pollution in cities.
2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
»» For the most benefit, EV deployment such as time-variable “smart
requires four concurrent strategies: charging” and vehicle to grid (V2G)
(i) electrification of vehicles; electricity supply. Such systems can
(ii) provision of sufficient charging help support a global doubling of
equipment; (iii) decarbonisation the share of renewable energy by
of the electricity generation; and 2030 compared to 2015.
(iv) integration of electric vehicles
»» The eventual deployment of
into the grid.
charging schemes such as smart
»» EV deployment growth would allow charging and V2G can support
a higher share of variable renewable the growth of variable renewable
energy (VRE) in the power system, energy and can interplay with
via five areas of interaction: information communication
(i) actively using the mobile battery technology (ICT) systems to
storage system in the vehicle; maximise the technical features
(ii) use of second-hand batteries
and minimise the operation costs
in a “second life” role as stationary
using demand-side management
battery storage systems; (iii) wide-
tools.
spread deployment of charging
technologies and infrastructure; »» REmap – a global roadmap from
(iv) evolution in the charging the International Renewable
behaviour of EV owners, for Energy Agency (IRENA) to double
example, in which they become renewables in the energy mix –
comfortable with variable charging estimates that a 160 million EVs
rates and times; and (v) provision by 2030 would provide sufficient
of other ancillary services from battery capacity in major markets
EVs to the grid, such as frequency to support VRE at a large scale.
regulation, shaving peak demand, Achieving this stock level, however,
power support to enhance will be challenging and will require
operation, and reserve capacity to annual sales growth rates on the
secure the grid by stored energy in order of 30-40% between now and
its batteries. then. To achieve this will probably
»» Electric vehicles create a paradigm require that EV markets achieve
shift for both the transport and a “tipping point” between 2020 and
power sectors, and could support 2025, when they start to rapidly
variable renewable power growth increase market share relative to
through different charging schemes ICE vehicles.
4 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Highlights
Technology status and performance
Two main types of electric vehicle with 40 kWh of battery capacity may
(EV) have both achieved significant have a battery cost of USD 14 000,
sales in the world’s major vehicle leading to a vehicle incremental cost
markets in the past year. These are: of at least USD 12 000 compared to
similar ICE vehicles, depending on
(1) battery electric vehicles (BEVs),
retail mark-ups, incentives and other
which use only batteries for energy
factors.
storage and must be plugged in to be
recharged, and Fortunately, strong policies and on-
going cost reductions of batteries
(2) plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
have helped enable the growth of
(PHEVs), which have both batteries EVs. EV sales have grown rapidly
and liquid-fuel storage/refuelling over the past five years, reaching
systems. nearly 500 000 worldwide in 2015,
In both cases, the electric motor and nearly 800 000 in 2016, with
is very efficient, using 90-95% nearly half of 2016 sales in China.
of the input energy to power the EV sales and market share are quite
movement of the vehicle, and offer variable across different countries
zero vehicle emissions driving. But and markets. In 2015, the EV market
the use of batteries poses the two share was over 20% in Norway,
main challenges for battery electric nearly 10% in the Netherlands, and
vehicles: their cost and driving range. 3% in California, while under 2% in
Most current models of BEV do not all other major markets. Electric
store enough energy to provide trucks and buses are also emerging,
“normal” driving range, and are with over 150 000 electric buses in
limited to below 250 km (160 miles) service around the world, mostly in
per recharge. However, some new and China. Electric two-wheelers are the
forthcoming models offer substantially runaway leaders with over 200 million
more range, up to 400 km. PHEVs sold through 2015, the vast majority
already offer 500 km or more due in China. As battery costs continue to
to the availability of their liquid- drop, and higher range EVs become
fuelled internal combustion engine. available at a reasonable cost, sales
are expected to continue to rise
Both technologies are expensive,
rapidly at least through 2020.
with battery costs estimated around
USD 350/kWh in 2015 and the cost of All modern EVs rely on some type of
a hybrid system of several thousand lithium-ion based battery. Lithium-ion
dollars in PHEVs. For BEVs, a vehicle batteries offer relatively high energy
6 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
in battery storage that could help The evolution of the combination
to accommodate higher shares of of EVs with smart grids is very
variable renewable energy. This is important as this allows customers
equivalent to approximately 1 200 GW to control and make well informed
of battery storage capacity. Along decisions on their consumption
with the pumped hydro storage and of electricity, as well as minimise
second-hand batteries estimated their bills. This kind of consumption
under REmap by 2030, this adds up control is called demand-side
to a total of 1 650 GW. This compares management (DSM). DSM can
with approximately 3 700 GW of help customers in optimising their
variable renewable power capacity. consumptions through an intelligent
The stored battery capacity can system, and can greatly support
provide additional support to customers in shifting their loads
renewable power integration to the during peak periods.
grid among other flexibility measures.
1 < www.tesla.com/models>
2 < www.byd.com/la/auto/e6.html>
3 < www.chevrolet.com/bolt-ev-electric-vehicle.html>
8 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure 1: Comparison of battery storage/driving
range for1: BEVs
Figure and PHEVs
Comparison of battery capacity/driving range for BEVs and PHEVs
500
Battery Driving Range (km)
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 20 40 60 80 100
Battery storage (kWh)
PHEV BEV
Source: UC Davis market data
Source: UC Davis market data
Liquid fuels, primarily gasoline and By contrast, electric motors are very
diesel from oil, are considered energy efficient, using 90-95% of the input
dense, allowing vehicles to be driven energy to power the movement of the
long distances before refuelling. vehicle. But the challenge with electric
Drivers can fill their tanks easily in a vehicles is storing enough energy
few minutes at refuelling stations. One in batteries to provide adequate
drawback with combustion of fuels in driving range, as well as recharging
engines is that most of this energy is that battery without excessive
wasted as heat, with typically 20-30% inconvenience to drivers. Fortunately
conversion efficiencies (with hybrids batteries have been improving and
at the high end). becoming less expensive over time.
2 000
95 % confidence interval, whole industry
1 900
95 % confidence interval, market leaders
1 800
Publications
1 700
News items with expert statements
1 600
Log fit of news, reports, and jornals: 12 +
_ 6% decline
1 500
Additional cost estimates without clear method
1 400
Market leader Nissan Motors, Leaf
1 300
2014 USD per kWh
1 0 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
In addition to lithium-ion batteries, Apart from the evolution of batteries,
there are many other battery scientists and experts have seen a
chemistries under development, huge potential for ultracapacitors
such as lithium-air batteries, that are as an alternative or supplementary
considered highly promising because electricity storage device that
of their potential for delivering higher could lead to a major change in
energy per unit of mass and volume. performance of EVs. Lithium-ion
Lithium-air batteries have a number batteries convert and store energy
of drawbacks4 such as lower energy by means of a chemical reaction,
efficiency and faster degradation whereas ultracapacitors store energy
rates. Still, Li-air technology offers by employing an electric field.
key performance attributes beyond
As a result, while batteries take a
the technical limits of conventional
long time (hours) to discharge,
lithium-ion batteries.
ultracapacitors can quickly discharge
MIT researchers developed a new (in seconds or minutes) with large
concept of li-oxygen that could be bursts of power. Lithium-ion batteries
used as lithium-air batteries, while can typically charge and discharge
overcoming its drawbacks. For up to 10 000 times (cycles) whereas
fast-charging lithium-ion battery ultracapacitors have a cycle life of
production, a start-up in Israel has 1 million times. However, ultracapacitors
been established. This company typically have a low energy density
used nanotechnology to create new compared to lithium-ion batteries, and
organic materials for batteries that are more expensive per kW of power.
can recharge in 30 minutes.5 These With significant improvements in
materials have the potential to increase energy density, ultracapacitors might
charging speed in comparison with penetrate the market and help improve
conventional lithium-ion batteries. EV performance.
4 http://news.mit.edu/2016/new-lithium-oxygen-battery-greatly-improves-energy-efficiency-
longevity-0725
5 http://fortune.com/2015/08/19/electric-car-battery-charges-minutes/
Figure
Figure 3: Electric
3: Electric vehicle
vehicle salessales in world’s
in world’s 8 largest
eight largestmarkets,
markets,byby
type
type
500
400
300
Thousands
200
100
1 2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
TableTable
1: Global EV sales
1: Global by country,
EV sales 8 biggest
by country, markets
8 biggest markets
Country Est Total PEVs. Est. PEV Sales PEVs as % of Total LDV market
Feb 2016 2015 2015 market 2015
1 4 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure
Figure 5: Secondgeneration
5: Second generationEVs,EVs, 2015-2020
2020-2015
st
1 Generation 2 nd Generation
PHEV 60 PHEV 80
25
FigureFigure 6: E-bike
6: E-bike sales in
sales in Europe,
Europe,20142014
8 70
6
50
Sales ex. Asia Pacific (mil)
5
Asia Pacific Sales (mil)
20
2
1 10
0 0
Africa Middle East E. Eur W. Eur Lat. Amer. N. Amer. Asia Pacific
Source:
Source: ITDP/UC
ITDP/UC Davis, 2015 Davis, 2015
1 6 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Costs, markets and consumers
Two main factors are needed to make must compete on price, which
the deployment of EVs a success: is difficult given the low prices of
support of government actions and competing ICE models. In premium
popularity with consumers. This markets, price equivalence is less
means they must compete well with important but high performance
conventional vehicle models; thus they (such as acceleration and perceived
must have desirable attributes such overall quality) is a critical. Tesla has
as an enjoyable driving experience, succeeded mainly by competing on
sufficient driving range, and good this basis.
“green” credentials.
Thus the cost attributes of electric
Policymakers can make EVs more vehicles – such as first (purchase)
attractive with actions such as cost, running cost and their combined
subsidies to lower upfront costs “total cost of ownership” (TCO) –are
and urban-access measures such important in affecting demand. And
as premium parking spots. In these attributes are changing rapidly,
addition, EVs must also be offered as described above, for example, with
in a wide range of shapes and sizes respect to declining battery costs.
(i.e. different market segments, price From the policy side, a key question
points, etc) and there must be a policy is the extent to which subsidies (and
environment that is supportive and the level of subsidies) will be needed
creates at least a level playing field for
in order to sell large numbers of
them to compete.
vehicles. Related to this is the cost
Consumers must be aware of vehicle to society of such subsidies, and the
models available on the market explicit or implicit cost per tonne for
and gain a level of confidence high the CO2 emissions reductions that
enough that they become willing to electric vehicles provide.
spend large sums of money on these
models rather than conventional Estimating such costs, and likely costs
vehicles. Even in California, as of 2015 in the future, is complicated by the
a relatively high number of new car large number of factors that could
buyers were not even aware they influence these calculations. One
can purchase EVs at most of their factor is how far individuals drive per
local dealerships (Kurani, Caperello, year, since the fuel-cost advantage of
and Tyree-Hageman, 2016). Buyers EVs rises with the use of the vehicle.
shopping in smaller-car segments Another is the CO2 savings of electric
tend to be particularly price sensitive, vehicles, which depend heavily on
and this is where many of today’s EVs the CO2 intensity of the electricity
are being marketed (Fulton, Tal and they run on. An EV that operates
Turrentine, 2016). So these vehicles for 15 years can have an on-going
6 The EV vehicle cost increment is based on a 35 kWh battery pack resulting in about
USD 12 000 in battery costs, and USD 2 000 savings from eliminating the ICE engine/drive
train and replacing with a motor system. The fuel costs are based on USD per litre gasoline
and USD 0.12/kWh electricity, with 10 years of driving and a 10-year discount rate. This analysis
could be repeated based on many other assumptions.
1 8 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure 7: Conventional ICE, Efficient ICE, and EV life-cycle cost comparison by:
(a) driving levels per year, 2015, (b) driving levels per year, 2030,
(c) combinations
(a) 2015of fuel prices, 2015, (d) combinations ofFuture
(b) fuel prices, 2030
44 000
of Ownership
of Ownership
42 000 42 000
44 000
Ownership
40 000 41
43 000
000
Ownership
42 000
38 000 40
42 000
39 000
41 000
ofCost
40 000
36 000
ofCost
38 38
40 000
000
34 000
000
Total
37
39 000
Total
Total Cost
36 000
32
Total Cost
36
38 000
34 000 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
37 000
32 000 Thousand kms of driving per year Thousand kms of driving per year
36 000
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Thousand kms of driving per year Thousand kms of driving per year
2015 Average ICE 2015 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV 2030 Average ICE 2030 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
2015 Average ICE 2015 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV 2030 Average ICE 2030 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
48 000 46 000
46 000 (c) 2015 (d) Future
Fuel (USD)
44 000
Fuel (USD)
44 000 42 000
48 000 46 000
42 000
46 000 40 000
(USD)
44 000
(USD)
40 000
44 000 38 000
42 000
38 000
Fuelof
Fuelof
42 000 36 000
36 000 40 000
Cost ofCost
Cost ofCost
40 000
34 000 34 000
38 000
38 000
32 000 32 000
36 000
36 000
0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 34 000 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
34 000
32 000 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 32 000 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
Fuel price combinations
0.75 Fuel1.00price1.25
combinations
1.50 1.75 2.00 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00
(top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity) (top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity)
0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10
2015 Average ICE 2015combinations
Efficient ICE 2015 BEV 2030 Average ICEFuel price
2030combinations
Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
Fuel price
(top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity) (top row USD/L gasoline; bottom row USD/kWh electricity)
2015 Average ICE 2015 Efficient ICE 2015 BEV 2030 Average ICE 2030 Efficient ICE 2030 BEV
promotional policies can be difficult years, typical costs for home chargers
to determine, as are the resulting in the United States have been around
costs per tonne of CO2 reduction. USD 1 200 per unit, with Level 2
(slow) public chargers anywhere
Costs of electric vehicles are not
limited to ownership and driving. from USD 5 000 to USD 10 000, and
There are also costs associated fast Direct Current (DC) chargers
with the infrastructure. The cost as high as USD 60 000 (Agenbroad
of chargers varies considerably, and Hollandl , 2014). Data for other
particularly for public chargers, and countries is difficult to obtain, and
can depend on the extent to which unit costs may be lower in some,
electricity upgrades are needed and particularly China. Total recharging
“brick and mortar” construction is infrastructure costs in the future
involved. In the past two to three will depend significantly on scale of
Note: Private charges are estimated assuming that each CV is coupled with a private chargers.
Global EV outlook 2016 (International Energy Agency (IEA))
2 0 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
public chargers and nearly half of the controlled charging. V2B refers to a
fast public chargers world-wide. home storage battery usage with no
feedback to the grid, while controlled
EVs may interact with the grid via
charging and discharging. The first charging gathers signals from the grid
mode is referred as G2V where the to optimise the charging speed and
vehicle is charged from the grid, time based on grid congestion. Few
while V2G refers to when vehicles charging systems around the world
discharge power to the grid. The V2G currently use bi-directional charging,
mode could also be considered as a but various testing programmes
bidirectional charging, in which an are underway (Mwasilu et al., 2014).
EV can charge from and discharge REmap has set a target of 160 million
to the grid at regular intervals. There EVs in operation by 2030, resulting in
are also other charging modes such significant global EV energy storage
as vehicle to building (V2B) and capacity (IRENA, 2016a).
2 2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure 9: The usage factor of EV’s battery storage capacity
Figure 9: the usage factor of EV’s battery storage capacity with respect to the VREs installed capacity
with respect to the VREs installed capacity
5
3.75
GWh/GW
2.5
1.25
0
us a
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or
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Usage Factor Reference Case Usage Factor Remap 2030
Variable
Renewable Electric Vehicles
Power (EV)
(VRE)
2 4 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
in Figure 8), grid topology is a key The second concept was V2G,
area for research. Uncontrolled whereby grids charge vehicles,
charging of EVs could significantly allowing power to flow from the
increase the evening load peak.
vehicle back to the grid. The aim
One study that investigated a local
was to control the charging of the
grid with uncontrolled charging of
EVs found that Load Management EV in a way that the load at the
Systems (LMS) could play an transformer is always balanced. Both
important role in stabilising grid concepts could yield a decrease in
operations as the number of EVs rises the transformer load by shifting the
(Probst et al., 2011). In this study, there charging of EVs to lower demand
were two different concepts of LMS
periods (such as night time) or to PV
investigated to solve this problem
peak times in the early afternoon.
of uncontrolled charging. The first
concept was G2V, where grids charge Further, the use of V2G allows
vehicles by calculating the desired feeding energy back to the grid in
load profile for the transformer. evening hours at peak load times.
Figure 11: a diagram shows the concept of a load management system,
(adapted from Probst et al, 2011)
Figure 11: A diagram shows the concept of a load management system
Communication
Transformer
10 kv/400v
Load
management
system
Communication
2 6 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
(Guenther et al., 2013). An analysis schemes and consumer behaviour,
on using different charging modes the policy support could be a key role
indicated that EV impacts on the in enhancing the integration of the
system peak load could be reduced if EV in the grid. These aforementioned
EVs will not have full battery capacity benefits of integration of EV into the
charged as soon as they connect gird could allow more penetration of
to the grid. Since there is a strong renewable power, which will result in
interlinkage between the charging decarbonisation of the power sector.
Smart charging
Slow charging is typically referred the world to build a fast-charging
to as overnight charging which network.
typically takes between six and eight
The need to understand how to best
hours. Fast charging can be defined
as any scheme that is faster than charge, aggregate and control EV
slow charging. Fast charging is more load on the grid is a fundamental
convenient, in particular for vehicles and on-going issue. EV smart
that require frequent trips, such as charging can be used to support
taxis. In a single ten-minute charge the distribution grid management,
cycle, a fast charger can provide and efficiently improve the operation
enough energy to drive 300 miles of EVs.
(the range achieved by Tesla). Fast
The increased use of different
charge scheme can help enabling
electro-mobility mainly depends on
rapid growth of the EV market.
An experimental study on Nissan the charging network infrastructure,
leaf battery, in Nebbenes (aroundwhereas they act as an energy
buffer for the grid. Some studies
60 km from Oslo) with a capability
demonstrate the attained great
of charging 28 EVs simultaneously.
benefits of using V2G scheme. They
With all of recent models with driving
ranges up to 480 km, the more indicated that adoption of V2G
battery capacity is, the longer time
requires an aggregator that controls
takes to recharge. Therefore, Porsche
the information exchange between
is taking the lead on building such a
the EV and the grid to facilitate
fast-charger for the whole VW Group
the interaction. The EVs can be
to support the new versions of EVs
aggregated and controlled under
with high batteries capacities. the virtual power plant (VPP). This
Porsche also in touch with other aggregator changes operation and
car makers and suppliers around controlling ways of the grid.
2 8 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
and transport sectors, considering met with variable renewable power as
both electricity supply and EV fleet nuclear power plants are phased out.
scenarios. Their modelling work Such a strategy could play a major
estimates that in a scenario where part in decarbonisation of both the
the EV fleet reaches between 30% Swiss electricity and transport sectors
and 75% by 2050, the significant (Kannan, 2016).
resulting electricity demand could be
160
140
120
100
Millions
80
60
40
20
Source: Base LDV sales projections from IEA ETP 2015, with EV projections developed for this technology brief.
Source:
RoW= rest of world.Base LDV sales projections from IEA ETP 2015, with EV projections
developed for this technology brief.
RoW= Rest of World.
3 0 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure 13: Global annual EV sales to 2030 based on REmap
Figure 13: Global annual EV sales to 2030 based on REmap
50
45
40
35
30
Millions
25
20
15
10
5
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
As Figure 13 shows, the steep growth overall market share rapidly, in place
rates needed suggest that a “tipping of ICE vehicles. Given the trajectory
point” may need to occur somewhere and the 40% market share position in
between 2020 and 2025 – that is, the 2030, EVs would become dominant
point at which EVs become truly mass by 2040, accounting for well over half
market and start to increase their of LDV sales around the world.
180
Figure 14 shows the resulting total “leader” markets but then similar
stock of electric vehicles across major growth across all countries, as shown
world countries and regions, based in the figures above.
on higher growth early in the current
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2015 2020 2025 2030
3 2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Figure15:
Figure 15:Total
Totalbattery
batterystorage
storage
onon electric
electric vehicles
vehicles by region
by region
9 000
GWh/year capacity
8 000
7 000
6 000
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
1 000
-
2015 2020 2025 2030
500
450
400
350
TWh/year
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2015 2020 2025 2030
3 4 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
different CO2 intensity levels, with of 68-78 g CO2/km (ICCT, 2016).
the CO2 emissions of various internal Electricity must therefore be deeply
combustion engine vehicles. decarbonised for average-efficiency
As shown, a BEV of even modest BEVs to have a significant advantage.
efficiency can provide reductions Of course, this decarbonisation is
compared to an efficient LDV as long also necessary for BEVs to eventually
as the electricity is produced with provide a near-zero CO2 performance,
CO2 emissions below 600 g/kWh. which is a long term goal.
However, to compare to today’s best
Notably, Figure 17 uses tested
vehicles (such as small European or
efficiencies, which can be up to 50%
Japanese hybrids that can achieve
better than actual in-use performance.
below 100 g CO2/km), the BEV must
This is true for EVs as well as for
be driven on electricity with a CO2 ICE vehicles, and more research is
emission factor below 400 g/kWh for needed to better understand how a
moderate efficiency. wide range of vehicles performs in
A very efficient (and likely quite small) the real world. Finally, plug-in hybrid
BEV can beat today’s best ICEs as long vehicles are not easy to represent in
as the electricity intensity is under a figure like this one since they use
600 g CO2/kWh. By 2030, ICE vehicle both electricity and liquid fuel. A well
emissions will have to fall below designed PHEV should be able to hit
80 g CO2/km, at least in Europe, close to both the hybrid vehicle CO2
where the European Commission and efficient-BEV CO2 levels shown in
is considering a 2025 standard the figure.
Figure 17: Relation between power plant CO2 emissions and vehicle efficiency
BEV, modest
200 efficiency
Vehicle C02 emissions/km
140
120 Best ICE,
100 2016
80 BEV, more
efficient Best ICE,
60 2030
40
20
0
8 00 6 00 4 00 2 00 0
Figure 18:
Figure Relation
18: between
Relation renewable
between energy shareenergy
renewable in total power
share generation
in totaland the electric
power vehicle CO2
generation
emissions, IRENA projection for 2030
and the electric vehicle CO2 emissions, IRENA projection for 2030
160
Reference petroleum vehicle:
Battery electric vehicle CO2 emissions (gCO2/passenger-km)
Tonga
120 Kuwait Australia
Indonesia China
Dominican Republic
100 Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan
Russian Fed.
Poland
Rep. of Korea
Argentina
40
Ecuador
Colombia
Denmark
20 United Kingdom Canada
Ethiopia
Kenya Brazil Uruguay
France
0 Sweden
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
3 6 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
The need to reduce air pollution in Assuming all these EVs were to
cities will remain a major driver for consume 100% renewable electricity,
renewables in the sector. Transport’s then 480 TWh per year of additional
share of all energy used is 30% globally, renewable power would be required
but this differs between countries and in 2030 (approximately 1.5% of the
regions, depending on such factors total global electricity generation).
as population density, income level The share of electricity in transport’s
and weather. In many middle-income total energy demand would increase
and fast-growing cities the transport from 1% to 4% from 2013 to 2030.
sector makes up 50% or more of the EVs can also reduce noise pollution in
energy demand for the city, with road cities. In many cities, noise pollution
transport the largest component. from transport systems can surpass
Therefore, the largest contributor to 55 decibels (dB) in certain areas,
local air pollution in many cities is which, according to the World Health
the transport sector. Benefits of EVs Organization, can pose health risks.
include less local air pollution and, EVs can be much quieter than ICE
depending on the power generation automobiles, with many operating at
mix, lower CO2 emissions. just 21 dB.
3 8 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Achieving future EV targets: Technology and policy aspects
Apart from on-going improvements for each of the first 25 000 EVs sold
in technology, hand in hand with and to raise the tax rate on gasoline
government actions and initiatives to 30% by 2030 to encourage people
on deployments of electric vehicles, to buy EVs. Also, since EV technology
in order to achieve significant will likely continue to evolve rapidly,
market shares, EVs will need to be along with infrastructure capacity and
competitive with conventional ICE consumer awareness, a given level
vehicles in multiple markets and with a of incentive should yield increasing
wide range of consumers within those “returns” in market share for EVs, as
markets (Fulton, Tal and Turrentine, has been the case in Norway.
2016). In every “beachhead” market Another approach is to require
for EVs around the world, policy automakers to make some percentage
makers have instituted a suite of of their sales be zero-emission, as
incentives to encourage buyers is done in California (which will
to try this new technology. The require an increasing share from 2017
main goals are to provide needed until 2025, reaching 15% of sales in
recharging infrastructure, reduce that year). More recently China has
purchase costs of the vehicles and indicated plans to apply a credit point
provide enough other advantages to system where, as of 2018, car makers
initiate a sustained transition and get will need to achieve EV sales credits
beyond a tiny fraction of sales within equivalent to 8% of their LDVs sold in
the LDV market. China (Der Spiegel, 2016). This would
In most countries these incentives represent a much steeper ramp-up
have “sunset” provisions. However, than under the California programme.
there is increasing recognition that Policy “packages” typically
some sort of incentive may be needed include national, regional and local
for many years, perhaps until first incentives. National incentives
costs equal those of conventional generally include subsidies such as
vehicles without subsidies. Incentives tax credits to reduce purchase costs.
can also include taxes on ICE vehicles, Regional (as in state, provincial)
as is done in many countries. High incentives have also included tax
ICE taxes are found in Norway, with and registration reductions, and
the highest EV market share in the in some cases reductions at the
world. Finland aims to catch up, with point of sale. Regional incentives
targets for 250 000 EVs and only sometimes also include road-system
50 000 ICE cars in the country by privileges, such as exclusive access
2030. To achieve this goal, they aim to special lanes on highways, or
to provide a subsidy of EUR 4 000 reduced tolls for highways or ferries.
4 0 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Table 2: Comparison of electric vehicle policy incentives in three cities
Table 2: Comparison of electric vehicle policy incentives in three cities
National 2015 EV 209 000 (1%) 50 000 (30%) 115 000 (0.7%)
Sales (share of
total LDV sales)
Federal financial USD 3 500 – 8 500 Exemption of VAT (25% - USD 2 500 -7 500
incentive value up to USD 25 000
on USD 100 000 price
car)
Local financial USD 1 500 - 4 500 USD 1 500 (PHEV)/
incentives 2 500 (BEV) California
EV rebate
Roads BEVs exempted from inner Bus lane access, free High-occupant lane
city road restrictions on toll roads (nationally access
vehicle registered outside worth USD 600- 1 200),
Shanghai reduced ferry rates
4 2 E l e c t ri c Ve h i cle s | Technolog y Br ie f
Ele c tr i c Vehicles | Technology B rief 4 3
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