Q4FY11 Results Preview

Emkay
Your success is our success

©
India Strategy
Q4FY11 Results Preview: Strong results ahead…
Emkay
©
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.
Ajay Parmar
Head Research - Institutional Equities
+91 22 6612 1258
ajay.parmar@emkayglobal.com
th
Q4FY11 Results Preview: Strong results ahead… 8 April,
| Emkay Strategy | 8th April, 2011
2011 |1
Q4FY11 Strong Results Emkay
©
Large Caps Mid Caps Small Caps
Adani Power Chambal Fertilisers EMCO
Allahabad Bank Eicher Motors Essel Propack
Bank of India GNFC Piramal Glass
Canara Bank Hexaware Technologies
Petronet LNG Jubilant FoodWorks
State Bank of India Madras Cements
Tata Motors Manappuram General Finance
Titan Industries Phoenix Mills
United Bank Of India
Q4FY11 Results Preview: Strong results ahead… | Emkay Strategy | 8th April, 2011 | 2
Q4FY11 Weak Results
Emkay
©
Large Caps Mid Caps Small Caps
Jaiprakash Power Ventures Aban Offshore Dishman Pharma
JSW Energy Apollo Tyres Great Offshore
Ranbaxy Labs Century Plyboards HBL Power Systems
Reliance Communications Jubilant Life Sciences JK Tyre
Tata Steel KSK Energy Tamilnadu Newsprint
Nava Bharat Ventures
Sterlite Tech
Executive Summary Emkay
©
We expect Emkay Universe’s (ex-Oil & Gas and Banking) earnings to grow by 4.1% for Q4FY11. However, excluding
RCom, Bharti, Tata Steel & Ranbaxy (decline of 48% yoy), the growth is expected at 18%.
Ebitda margins for Emkay Universe are expected to contract by 53 bps to 20.2%. The Same are likely to contract by 79
bps to 20.6% and by 145 bps to 14.3% for Emkay Large Cap and Small Cap Universe respectively. Ebitda margins for
Emkay Mid Cap Universe are likely to improve by 143 bps to 18%.
Emkay Universe is likely to post Sales growth of 20.3%, EBITDA growth of 17.2% and PAT growth of 4.1% for Q4FY11.
Emkay Large Cap Universe is likely to show 20.3%, 15.8% and 2.1% growth in Sales, EBITDA and PAT. Emkay Mid Cap
Universe is likely to show 21.5%, 32% and 32% growth in Sales, EBITDA and PAT.
The top performing sectors in terms of sales growth are Telecom (38.4%), Auto Ancillaries (26.5%), Engineering &
Capital Goods (25.8%), IT Services (24.5%) and Consumers (21.9%).
EBITDA margins are likely to improve in sectors like Agi Input & Chemicals (355 bps), Power (299 bps), Engineering &
Capital Goods (248 bps), Paper (182 bps) and Automobiles (96 bps). The same are likely to contract in case of
Pharmaceuticals (641 bps), Metals & Mining (410 bps), Cement (280 bps), Auto Ancillaries (267 bps) and Print Media
(241 bps).
Sectors like Agri Input & Chemicals (48.7%), Engineering & Capital Goods (48.7%), Telecom (29.8%), Automobiles
(28.6%) and Consumers (26.4%) are expected to witness better yoy EBITDA growth while sectors like Pharmaceuticals
(20%), Offshore Oil Field Services (19%), Metals & Mining (5.8%) and Auto Ancillaries (2.3%) are likely to post YoY
decline in EBITDA.
Executive Summary (Cont’d…) Emkay
©
Emkay Universe is likely to post a 16% decline in other income with 16.1% and 18% decline in other income of Emkay
Large Cap and Mid Cap Universe respectively. Other income for Emkay Small Cap Universe is likely to decline by 19%
yoy (ex Piramal Glass).
Emkay Universe is likely to post 56.2% growth in interest cost with 64.7%, 31.5% and 39.7% growth in interest cost of
Emkay Large Cap, Mid Cap and Small Cap respectively.
PAT growth will be contributed by sectors like Engineering & Capital Goods (54.5%), Automobiles (40.8%), Agri Input &
Chemicals (34.2%), Consumers (30%) and Print Media (18.6%). While sectors like Offshore Oil Field Services (62.1%),
Telecom (37.4%), Pharmaceuticals (26.3%), Auto Ancillaries (24.3%) and Metals & Mining (17.6%) will witness de-growth
in PAT.
Emkay Universe is trading at 13.8x FY12E earnings which is at a discount of 12% to Sensex PE of 15.4x FY12E
consensus EPS of Rs 1272.
Q4FY11 Strong Results Emkay
©
APAT (Rs mn) APAT Gr

Company Name Sector Mar-11E Mar-10 (%)
Large Caps
Adani Power Power 3019 983 207.1
Allahabad Bank Banks & Financial Services 4542 2244 102.3
Bank of India Banks & Financial Services 7327 4281 71.2
Canara Bank Banks & Financial Services 9650 5034 91.7
Petronet LNG Oil & Gas 1690 973 73.7
State Bank of India Banks & Financial Services 30256 18666 62.1
Tata Motors Automobiles 29936 14814 102.1
Titan Industries Consumers 818 512 59.6
Mid Caps
Chambal Fertilisers Agri Input & Chemicals 910 579 57.2
Eicher Motors Automobiles 639 402 58.9
GNFC Agri Input & Chemicals 902 -382 n.a.
Hexaware Technologies* IT Services 442 396 11.7
Jubilant FoodWorks Consumers 206 104 97.8
Madras Cements Cement 623 293 112.8
Manappuram General Finance Banks & Financial Services 963 408 136.1
Phoenix Mills Others 251 157 60.0
United Bank Of India Banks & Financial Services 1535 463 231.6
Small Caps
EMCO Engineering & Capital Goods 128 79 61.0
Essel Propack Others 192 61 215.4
Piramal Glass Others 190 115 66.2
* QoQ numbers
Q4FY11 Weak Results Emkay
©
APAT (Rs mn) APAT Gr

Company Name Sector Mar-11E Mar-10 (%)
Large Caps
Jaiprakash Power Ventures Power 380 1289 -70.6
JSW Energy Power 1403 2730 -48.6
Ranbaxy Labs Pharmaceuticals 1216 7039 -82.7
Reliance Communications Telecommunications 3207 12193 -73.7
Tata Steel Metals & Mining 13472 25640 -47.5
Mid Caps
Aban Offshore Offshore Oil Field Services 880 2801 -68.6
Apollo Tyres Auto Ancillaries 553 1162 -52.4
Century Plyboards Others 266 404 -34.0
Jubilant Life Sciences Pharmaceuticals 591 1358 -56.5
KSK Energy Power 606 948 -36.1
Nava Bharat Ventures Power 614 1100 -44.2
Sterlite Tech Others 425 722 -41.1
Small Caps
Dishman Pharma Pharmaceuticals 62 181 -65.7
Great Offshore Offshore Oil Field Services 410 731 -43.9
HBL Power Systems Others 39 211 -81.3
JK Tyre Auto Ancillaries 14 267 -94.7
Tamilnadu Newsprint Paper 333 572 -41.9
Emkay Universe Q4FY11 Result Preview Emkay
©
Net Sales (Rs mn) Growth (%) Ebitda (Rs mn) Growth (%) APAT (Rs mn) Growth (%) EPS (Rs) Growth (%)
Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ
Agri Input & Chemicals 93391 102296 76867 21% -9% 18091 17022 12162 49% 6% 9666 8628 7204 34% 12% 5.6 5.0 4.2 34% 12%
Auto Ancillaries 55519 47382 43882 27% 17% 5011 4325 5131 -2% 16% 1737 1590 2295 -24% 9% 1.9 1.7 2.5 -24% 9%
Automobiles 663248 617569 554247 20% 7% 91912 81852 71467 29% 12% 58843 50241 41804 41% 17% 15.1 12.9 11.2 35% 17%
Banks & Financial Services 326007 318358 249646 31% 2% 256174 249002 213112 20% 3% 135144 128056 93846 44% 6% 15.6 14.8 11.3 39% 6%
Cement 94012 75380 82830 13% 25% 23203 14635 22761 2% 59% 13049 7952 13104 0% 64% 5.1 3.1 5.1 0% 64%
Construction 69007 49729 56882 21% 39% 14407 12290 12340 17% 17% 5254 4164 4726 11% 26% 1.9 1.5 1.7 11% 26%
Consumers 107289 111714 88039 22% -4% 15399 15703 12185 26% -2% 10257 11385 7891 30% -10% 3.1 3.4 2.4 29% -10%
Engineering & Capital Goods 455225 289150 361850 26% 57% 73250 40012 49261 49% 83% 49697 26304 32177 54% 89% 18.7 9.9 12.1 54% 89%
Financial Services - Others 2584 2237 1940 33% 16% 1118 822 670 67% 36% 728 612 646 13% 19% 42.3 35.5 37.5 13% 19%
IT Services 329392 314020 264659 24% 5% 82685 78562 68223 21% 5% 64185 62997 54881 17% 2% 9.9 9.8 8.5 17% 2%
Metals & Mining 491788 459031 428696 15% 7% 92376 77051 98087 -6% 20% 46764 33641 56738 -18% 39% 8.7 6.2 10.7 -19% 39%
Offshore Oil Field Services 11288 10231 13522 -17% 10% 6610 6132 8164 -19% 8% 1362 854 3597 -62% 60% 13.0 8.2 34.4 -62% 60%
Oil & Gas 1788255 1648995 1576267 13% 8% 92508 70195 133529 -31% 32% 51802 34800 82476 -37% 49% 8.7 5.8 13.8 -37% 49%
Paper 18203 17197 16892 8% 6% 4161 3555 3554 17% 17% 1183 1017 1286 -8% 16% 1.5 1.3 1.6 -8% 16%
Pharmaceuticals 149684 152415 141500 6% -2% 29767 31069 37215 -20% -4% 20435 21044 27734 -26% -3% 4.6 4.7 6.2 -26% -3%
Power 203423 172136 177587 15% 18% 66124 47426 52412 26% 39% 34881 27137 36776 -5% 29% 1.7 1.4 1.8 -5% 29%
Print Media 10346 10993 8785 18% -6% 2409 2928 2257 7% -18% 1454 1664 1226 19% -13% 2.0 2.3 1.7 19% -13%
Telecommunications 261877 251788 189257 38% 4% 83070 76303 64007 30% 9% 22681 21084 36205 -37% 8% 2.4 2.3 3.9 -37% 8%
Others 40578 35425 33908 20% 15% 7065 5356 6032 17% 32% 3289 2357 3368 -2% 40% 2.0 1.4 2.0 -2% 40%
Small Cap* 78588 63336 68282 15% 24% 11211 8710 10731 4% 29% 4283 2809 4961 -14% 52% 2.7 1.8 3.2 -14% 52%
Mid Cap* 380396 325493 312996 22% 17% 68436 56846 51845 32% 20% 33258 25330 25193 32% 31% 3.2 2.5 2.4 32% 31%
Large Cap* 2595285 2327627 2158126 20% 11% 535893 448668 462684 16% 19% 307197 253918 300859 2% 21% 5.6 4.6 5.5 2% 21%
Emkay* 3054270 2716456 2539404 20% 12% 615540 514223 525260 17% 20% 344738 282057 331012 4% 22% 5.2 4.2 5.0 4% 22%
Emkay 5171116 4686046 4367257 18% 10% 965340 834242 872571 11% 16% 532412 445526 507981 5% 20% 6.5 5.5 6.3 4% 20%
* Note: ex Banks & FS, FS - Others and Oil & Gas
Emkay Universe Q4FY11 Result Preview
Emkay
©
Company Name Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ Q4FY11E Q3FY11 Q4FY10 YoY QoQ
Agri Input & Chemicals
Chambal Fertilisers 9100 13588 7193 27% -33% 2067 2128 1653 25% -3% 910 903 579 57% 1% 2.2 2.2 1.4 57% 1%
Coromandel International 13650 20503 13648 0% -33% 1523 2238 1201 27% -32% 989 1437 821 20% -31% 3.5 5.1 2.9 20% -31%
Deepak Fertilisers 3789 3750 3238 17% 1% 888 819 803 11% 8% 458 446 445 3% 3% 5.2 5.1 5.0 3% 3%
GNFC 8112 8339 5066 60% -3% 1524 1539 -561 -1% 902 884 -382 2% 5.8 5.7 -2.5 2%
GSFC 10781 12272 7825 38% -12% 2907 3157 1564 86% -8% 1764 2021 1288 37% -13% 22.1 25.3 16.2 37% -13%
Rallis India 2559 2714 2031 26% -6% 506 512 375 35% -1% 333 337 235 42% -1% 17.1 17.3 12.1 42% -1%
Tata Chemicals 28573 28909 22676 26% -1% 5249 4414 4093 28% 19% 1978 1492 1723 15% 33% 8.1 6.1 7.1 15% 33%
United Phosphorus 16826 12221 15190 11% 38% 3427 2215 3034 13% 55% 2332 1109 2496 -7% 110% 5.3 2.5 5.7 -7% 110%
Auto Ancillaries
Apollo Tyres 17546 14321 13128 34% 23% 1574 1491 1846 -15% 6% 553 548 1162 -52% 1% 1.1 1.1 2.3 -52% 1%
JK Tyre 13233 11785 10476 26% 12% 498 619 792 -37% -20% 14 91 267 -95% -85% 0.3 2.2 6.5 -95% -85%
Motherson Sumi 24740 21276 20279 22% 16% 2938 2216 2493 18% 33% 1170 951 865 35% 23% 3.0 2.5 2.2 35% 23%
Automobiles
Ashok Leyland 35828 22272 29390 22% 61% 4502 1920 3784 19% 134% 2753 694 2231 23% 297% 2.1 0.5 1.7 23% 297%
Bajaj Auto 42286 41771 33995 24% 1% 8469 8473 7771 9% 0% 6601 6651 5642 17% -1% 22.8 23.0 19.5 17% -1%
Eicher Motors 13653 12435 10409 31% 10% 1362 1205 912 49% 13% 639 552 402 59% 16% 23.7 20.5 15.1 57% 16%
Hero Honda 51119 51617 41223 24% -1% 6497 5767 7117 -9% 13% 5407 5089 5988 -10% 6% 27.1 25.5 30.0 -10% 6%
Mah & Mah 67795 61211 53046 28% 11% 9798 9238 8456 16% 6% 6355 6172 5703 11% 3% 10.3 10.0 9.8 5% 3%
Maruti Suzuki India 101653 94945 84246 21% 7% 10239 9358 11111 -8% 9% 6558 5992 6566 0% 9% 22.7 20.7 22.7 0% 9%
Tata Motors 333779 316852 289778 15% 5% 49921 44886 31454 59% 11% 29936 24533 14814 102% 22% 45.4 37.2 27.2 67% 22%
TVS Motor 17135 16467 12160 41% 4% 1124 1006 862 30% 12% 594 558 459 30% 7% 1.3 1.2 1.0 30% 7%
Emkay
©
Banks & Financial Services
Allahabad Bank 10598 10516 7426 43% 1% 8805 7882 6579 34% 12% 4542 4156 2244 102% 9% 10.2 9.3 5.0 102% 9%
Andhra Bank 8556 8399 6562 30% 2% 6504 6266 5269 23% 4% 3321 3309 2399 38% 0% 6.8 6.8 4.9 38% 0%
Axis Bank 18855 17331 14601 29% 9% 18861 16585 13838 36% 14% 10320 8914 7649 35% 16% 25.2 21.7 18.9 33% 16%
Bank of Baroda 24763 22923 17449 42% 8% 19931 18512 15473 29% 8% 11991 10689 8472 42% 12% 32.8 29.2 23.2 42% 12%
Bank of India 20236 19869 15521 30% 2% 15191 13888 12756 19% 9% 7327 6533 4281 71% 12% 13.9 12.4 8.1 71% 12%
Canara Bank 22256 21192 15976 39% 5% 15031 15140 14304 5% -1% 9650 11067 5034 92% -13% 23.5 27.0 12.2 92% -13%
Corporation Bank 8054 8423 6398 26% -4% 7604 7369 5451 39% 3% 4289 3823 3124 37% 12% 29.9 26.7 21.8 37% 12%
HDFC Bank 28027 27767 23514 19% 1% 20570 20727 16944 21% -1% 11046 10878 8367 32% 2% 23.8 23.4 18.3 30% 2%
ICICI Bank 23298 23117 20349 14% 1% 24385 23426 23991 2% 4% 14409 14370 10057 43% 0% 12.5 12.5 9.0 39% 0%
LIC Housing Finance 3775 3522 2980 27% 7% 3725 3524 2856 30% 6% 2682 2953 2135 26% -9% 5.7 6.2 4.5 26% -9%
Mah & Mah Financial Services 4173 3391 3439 21% 23% 2977 2278 2507 19% 31% 1733 1349 1402 24% 28% 18.0 14.0 14.6 23% 28%
Manappuram General Finance 2768 2334 1115 148% 19% 1597 1240 666 140% 29% 963 745 408 136% 29% 2.3 1.8 2.4 -4% 29%
Punjab National Bank 31134 32041 24980 25% -3% 21314 23508 22510 -5% -9% 11329 10906 10813 5% 4% 35.9 34.6 34.3 5% 4%
South Indian bank 2082 2048 1503 39% 2% 1457 1429 1110 31% 2% 862 753 995 -13% 14% 0.8 0.7 0.9 -14% 14%
State Bank of India 91783 90498 67215 37% 1% 67898 67644 51939 31% 0% 30256 28280 18666 62% 7% 47.6 44.5 29.4 62% 7%
Union Bank of India 16538 16158 13961 18% 2% 13005 12605 11473 13% 3% 6860 5789 5936 16% 19% 13.6 11.5 11.8 16% 19%
United Bank Of India 5602 5597 4219 33% 0% 3998 3867 2873 39% 3% 1535 1631 463 232% -6% 4.9 5.2 1.5 232% -6%
Yes Bank 3509 3232 2442 44% 9% 3321 3113 2575 29% 7% 2031 1911 1400 45% 6% 5.9 5.5 4.1 42% 6%
Cement
ACC 24166 19576 21018 15% 23% 5172 2800 6222 -17% 85% 3279 1806 4051 -19% 82% 17.5 9.6 21.6 -19% 82%
Ambuja Cements 22057 17885 19902 11% 23% 5332 3140 6227 -14% 70% 3270 2139 4520 -28% 53% 2.2 1.4 3.0 -28% 53%
Grasim Industries 13837 12137 11037 25% 14% 4691 3635 3037 54% 29% 3397 2827 2894 17% 20% 37.1 30.8 31.6 17% 20%
India Cements 10283 7810 9643 7% 32% 2067 1263 1420 46% 64% 875 197 421 108% 345% 2.8 0.6 1.4 108% 345%
Madras Cements 6815 5792 6311 8% 18% 1790 1481 1238 45% 21% 623 435 293 113% 43% 2.6 1.8 1.2 113% 43%
Orient Paper 6138 4384 5480 12% 40% 1098 741 1048 5% 48% 588 309 548 7% 90% 3.1 1.6 2.8 7% 90%
Shree Cements 10716 7796 9440 14% 37% 3053 1575 3569 -14% 94% 1016 240 377 169% 324% 29.2 6.9 10.8 169% 324%
Emkay
©
Construction
IL&FS Transportation 2988 2511 0 19% 848 1235 0 -31% 522 628 0 -17% 2.7 3.2 -17%
IRB Infrastructure 8901 6688 5017 77% 33% 3300 2936 2310 43% 12% 1372 1331 1417 -3% 3% 4.1 4.0 4.3 -3% 3%
IVRCL 21730 14104 18870 15% 54% 2102 1440 1950 8% 46% 869 506 852 2% 72% 3.3 1.9 3.2 2% 72%
Jaiprakash Associates 38375 28937 32995 16% 33% 9005 7915 8080 11% 14% 3013 2327 2457 23% 30% 1.4 1.1 1.2 23% 30%
Consumers
Asian Paints 20334 20996 18768 8% -3% 3711 3449 3109 19% 8% 2228 2203 1917 16% 1% 23.2 23.0 20.0 16% 1%
Godrej Consumer Products 11141 9858 5092 119% 13% 1713 1732 1075 59% -1% 1272 1188 918 39% 7% 3.9 3.7 3.0 32% 7%
Hindustan Unilever 48693 51277 43802 11% -5% 6855 7250 5955 15% -5% 4995 5732 3857 29% -13% 2.3 2.6 1.8 29% -13%
Jubilant FoodWorks 1963 1857 1241 58% 6% 355 323 193 84% 10% 206 190 104 98% 9% 3.2 2.9 1.6 95% 9%
Marico 8493 8177 6023 41% 4% 1194 997 849 41% 20% 738 695 583 27% 6% 1.2 1.1 1.0 27% 6%
Titan Industries 16665 19548 13114 27% -15% 1571 1952 1005 56% -20% 818 1377 512 60% -41% 18.4 31.0 11.5 60% -41%
Engineering & Capital Goods
Bharat Bijlee 2763 2072 2106 31% 33% 350 244 267 31% 43% 191 142 173 11% 35% 33.8 25.1 30.5 11% 35%
BHEL 178818 88493 135591 32% 102% 38471 18977 24873 55% 103% 28055 14032 19096 47% 100% 57.3 28.7 39.0 47% 100%
Blue Star 9898 6134 8747 13% 61% 1312 473 1120 17% 177% 837 224 785 7% 274% 9.3 2.5 8.7 7% 274%
Cummins India 11315 9925 7883 44% 14% 2231 1796 1609 39% 24% 1591 1389 1183 34% 15% 8.0 7.0 6.0 34% 15%
Elecon Engineering 3457 3024 3324 4% 14% 527 500 466 13% 5% 203 163 188 8% 25% 2.2 1.8 2.0 8% 25%
EMCO 4366 3037 3764 16% 44% 350 242 323 8% 45% 128 55 79 61% 133% 3.5 1.0 1.2 185% 264%
Greaves Cotton 4305 4192 3580 20% 3% 703 713 584 20% -1% 423 444 336 26% -5% 1.7 1.8 1.4 26% -5%
Indo Tech 677 332 386 75% 104% -11 -57 -101 -9 -67 -95 -0.8 -6.3 -8.9
Lakshmi Machine Works 5187 4909 3625 43% 6% 796 756 563 41% 5% 427 458 307 39% -7% 34.5 37.0 24.8 39% -7%
Larsen & Toubro 160365 114131 135851 18% 41% 21883 12379 20508 7% 77% 14236 8052 13374 6% 77% 23.4 13.2 22.2 5% 77%
Mcnally Bharat Engineering 7751 3788 5624 38% 105% 566 247 408 39% 129% 222 113 215 3% 96% 7.1 3.6 6.9 3% 96%
Punj Lloyd 26597 21188 17765 50% 26% 1695 958 -5147 77% 590 -622 -6232 1.8 -1.9 -18.8
Thermax 15062 12412 12193 24% 21% 1790 1464 1466 22% 22% 1128 1002 992 14% 13% 9.5 8.4 8.3 14% 13%
TRF 3752 2484 2629 43% 51% 230 264 160 44% -13% 81 171 80 2% -52% 7.4 15.6 7.3 2% -52%
TRIL 2418 1270 2138 13% 90% 287 119 315 -9% 142% 168 68 200 -16% 147% 13.0 5.3 15.4 -16% 147%
Voltamp Transformers 2318 1336 1801 29% 73% 285 145 349 -18% 97% 191 128 265 -28% 50% 18.9 12.6 26.1 -28% 50%
Voltas 16176 10422 14842 9% 55% 1784 793 1499 19% 125% 1235 551 1231 0% 124% 3.7 1.7 3.7 0% 124%
Emkay
©
Financial Services - Others
CRISIL 2024 1765 1433 41% 15% 912 685 462 98% 33% 577 499 485 19% 16% 79.9 69.1 67.1 19% 16%
ICRA 560 472 507 10% 19% 206 137 208 -1% 50% 151 113 162 -7% 34% 15.1 11.3 16.2 -7% 34%
IT Services
eClerx Services 942 872 713 32% 8% 368 364 261 41% 1% 346 360 242 43% -4% 11.7 12.2 8.2 43% -4%
HCL Tech 40354 38625 30757 31% 4% 6563 6051 5844 12% 8% 4227 3723 3235 31% 14% 6.2 5.5 4.8 30% 14%
Infinite Computer 2378 2223 1864 28% 7% 405 370 287 41% 9% 306 271 220 39% 13% 7.0 6.1 5.0 39% 13%
Hexaware Technologies 3198 2996 2220 44% 7% 428 345 183 134% 24% 442 396 117 278% 12% 1.5 1.4 0.4 278% 12%
Infosys 74446 71060 59440 25% 5% 24691 23630 20220 22% 4% 18570 17800 15690 18% 4% 32.4 31.0 27.4 18% 4%
Mahindra Satyam 13420 12793 0 5% 1149 819 0 40% 984 1122 0 -12% 0.8 1.0 -12%
NIIT 3267 3007 2950 11% 9% 478 370 475 1% 29% 207 129 247 -16% 61% 1.3 0.8 1.5 -16% 61%
Patni Computer 8587 8200 7745 11% 5% 1546 1405 1693 -9% 10% 1272 1769 1497 -15% -28% 9.5 13.2 11.4 -17% -28%
TCS 101578 96634 77365 31% 5% 30350 29173 23165 31% 4% 23768 23307 19273 23% 2% 12.1 11.9 9.8 23% 2%
Tech Mahindra 12474 12110 11833 5% 3% 2580 2497 2788 -7% 3% 1670 2054 2269 -26% -19% 12.7 15.7 17.3 -26% -19%
Wipro 82168 78293 69772 18% 5% 15276 14357 13307 15% 6% 13377 13188 12091 11% 1% 5.4 5.4 4.9 11% 1%
Metals & Mining
Godawari Power 2675 2285 2385 12% 17% 630 525 467 35% 20% 272 212 240 13% 28% 10.1 7.9 8.9 13% 28%
JSW Steel 64225 60026 54807 17% 7% 12814 10164 13234 -3% 26% 4691 2917 5148 -9% 61% 21.0 13.1 25.5 -18% 61%
Sesa Goa 28614 22501 24189 18% 27% 16475 12329 15030 10% 34% 14158 10653 12129 17% 33% 16.0 12.0 14.5 10% 33%
Sterlite Industries 87143 83325 72278 21% 5% 23258 19787 21855 6% 18% 14170 11052 13581 4% 28% 4.2 3.3 4.0 4% 28%
Tata Steel 309131 290895 275038 12% 6% 39198 34246 47502 -17% 14% 13472 8807 25640 -47% 53% 15.2 9.9 28.9 -47% 53%
Offshore Oil Field Services
Aban Offshore 8235 7780 10210 -19% 6% 5220 5166 6592 -21% 1% 880 755 2801 -69% 17% 20.2 17.4 64.4 -69% 17%
Garware Offshore 502 505 573 -12% -1% 209 235 215 -3% -11% 73 80 65 11% -10% 3.0 3.4 2.7 11% -10%
Great Offshore 2551 1947 2739 -7% 31% 1181 732 1357 -13% 61% 410 18 731 -44% 2139% 11.0 0.5 19.7 -44% 2139%
Emkay
©
Oil & Gas
BPCL 399798 366859 375703 6% 9% 15328 7489 11466 34% 105% 7939 1875 7032 13% 324% 22.0 5.2 19.5 13% 324%
GAIL 87253 83836 65690 33% 4% 15650 13331 13636 15% 17% 9760 9676 9108 7% 1% 7.7 7.6 7.2 7% 1%
Gujarat Gas 4935 5123 4100 20% -4% 1208 1284 1026 18% -6% 751 820 620 21% -8% 5.9 6.4 4.8 21% -8%
Gujarat State Petronet 2804 2795 2668 5% 0% 2621 2623 2460 7% 0% 1289 1591 1079 20% -19% 2.3 2.8 1.9 19% -19%
HPCL 375715 340560 315584 19% 10% 12370 7802 15510 -20% 59% 6323 2110 7538 -16% 200% 18.7 6.2 22.1 -16% 200%
Indian Oil 876907 808973 785770 12% 8% 40697 32917 86457 -53% 24% 23357 16348 55605 -58% 43% 9.6 6.7 22.9 -58% 43%
Indraprastha Gas 4788 4571 2898 65% 5% 1293 1293 952 36% 0% 693 672 522 33% 3% 4.9 4.8 3.7 33% 3%
Petronet LNG 36056 36276 23855 51% -1% 3339 3456 2022 65% -3% 1690 1708 973 74% -1% 2.3 2.3 1.3 74% -1%
Paper
Ballarpur Inds 11800 11310 10388 14% 4% 2398 2182 2041 18% 10% 606 480 443 37% 26% 0.9 0.7 0.7 37% 26%
JK Paper 2963 3138 2947 1% -6% 637 654 602 6% -3% 245 251 271 -10% -3% 3.1 3.2 3.5 -10% -3%
Tamilnadu Newsprint 3440 2749 3556 -3% 25% 1125 720 911 24% 56% 333 286 572 -42% 16% 4.8 4.1 8.2 -42% 16%
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma 10699 11922 9248 16% -10% 2050 3195 1716 19% -36% 1118 1847 1170 -4% -39% 3.8 6.3 4.0 -4% -39%
Cadila Healthcare 11451 11668 8466 35% -2% 2371 2562 1894 25% -7% 1528 1620 1311 17% -6% 7.5 7.9 6.4 17% -6%
Cipla 15403 15537 13747 12% -1% 3123 3182 2780 12% -2% 2276 2327 2283 0% -2% 2.8 2.9 2.8 0% -2%
Dishman Pharma 2400 2379 2480 -3% 1% 383 315 496 -23% 22% 62 17 181 -66% 255% 0.8 0.2 2.2 -66% 255%
Divi's Lab 3097 3132 3141 -1% -1% 1200 1205 1513 -21% 0% 969 984 1294 -25% -2% 7.3 7.4 9.7 -25% -2%
Dr. Reddy's Lab 18974 18985 16424 16% 0% 3131 3043 2554 23% 3% 2627 2774 2046 28% -5% 15.6 16.5 12.1 28% -5%
Glaxosmithkline Pharma 5845 5007 5465 7% 17% 2044 1574 2056 -1% 30% 1524 1223 1611 -5% 25% 18.0 14.4 19.0 -5% 25%
Glenmark Pharma 7981 7585 7125 12% 5% 1836 1741 1817 1% 5% 1091 950 1068 2% 15% 4.0 3.5 4.0 2% 15%
Ipca Lab 4530 4664 3678 23% -3% 849 910 686 24% -7% 495 553 358 38% -11% 4.0 4.4 2.9 39% -11%
Jubilant Life Sciences 8715 8665 9903 -12% 1% 1459 1297 2191 -33% 12% 591 451 1358 -56% 31% 3.7 2.8 8.6 -56% 31%
Lupin 14297 15102 13282 8% -5% 2931 2973 2924 0% -1% 2189 2240 2206 -1% -2% 4.9 5.0 5.0 -1% -2%
Panacea Biotec 2562 2928 3287 -22% -12% 564 823 504 12% -31% 169 412 185 -9% -59% 2.8 6.7 2.8 0% -59%
Ranbaxy Labs 21084 21084 27671 -24% 0% 2302 2302 10517 -78% 0% 1216 1119 7039 -83% 9% 2.9 2.7 16.7 -83% 9%
Sun Pharma 15220 16011 11092 37% -5% 4158 4405 4185 -1% -6% 3684 3502 4695 -22% 5% 3.6 3.4 4.5 -22% 5%
Torrent pharma 5439 5775 4753 14% -6% 952 1150 969 -2% -17% 622 769 591 5% -19% 7.4 9.1 7.0 5% -19%
Unichem Labs 1986 1971 1739 14% 1% 415 394 415 0% 5% 276 256 339 -19% 8% 3.1 2.8 3.8 -19% 8%
Emkay
©
Power
Adani Power 8587 5026 2013 327% 71% 5504 2730 1174 369% 102% 3019 1091 983 207% 177% 1.4 0.5 0.5 207% 177%
Gujarat Industries Power 3303 3078 2502 32% 7% 1001 819 581 72% 22% 390 244 361 8% 60% 2.6 1.6 2.4 8% 60%
Jaiprakash Power Ventures 1292 1292 3880 -67% 0% 1042 1042 3380 -69% 0% 380 228 1289 -71% 67% 0.2 0.1 0.6 -71% 67%
JSW Energy 12793 10611 7845 63% 21% 3926 3384 3307 19% 16% 1403 1528 2730 -49% -8% 0.9 0.9 1.7 -49% -8%
KSK Energy 3257 2744 1804 81% 19% 2082 1265 1255 66% 65% 606 86 948 -36% 608% 1.6 0.2 2.5 -36% 608%
Lanco Infratech 23162 15615 24161 -4% 48% 6502 4800 6655 -2% 35% 2365 1105 1134 109% 114% 1.0 0.5 0.5 109% 114%
Nava Bharat Ventures 3100 2466 3154 -2% 26% 810 558 1247 -35% 45% 614 483 1100 -44% 27% 7.1 5.6 14.4 -51% 27%
NTPC 144880 128793 132229 10% 12% 44508 32212 35352 26% 38% 25050 21586 27305 -8% 16% 3.0 2.6 3.3 -8% 16%
Reliance Power 3048 2512 0 21% 749 617 -538 21% 1054 787 924 14% 34% 0.4 0.3 0.3 14% 34%
Print Media
DB Corp 3015 3482 2572 17% -13% 782 1148 696 12% -32% 550 659 367 50% -17% 3.0 3.6 2.0 50% -17%
HT Media 4648 4651 3851 21% 0% 882 883 929 -5% 0% 471 478 495 -5% -2% 2.0 2.0 2.1 -5% -2%
Jagran Prakashan 2683 2860 2363 14% -6% 745 897 633 18% -17% 433 526 364 19% -18% 1.4 1.7 1.2 19% -18%
Telecommunications
Bharti Airtel 162914 157560 100557 62% 3% 55368 49816 38220 45% 11% 16027 13033 20551 -22% 23% 4.2 3.4 5.4 -22% 23%
Idea Cellular 41746 39556 33478 25% 6% 9886 9483 9236 7% 4% 2473 2431 2666 -7% 2% 0.7 0.7 0.8 -7% 2%
Reliance Communications 50458 48650 49915 1% 4% 15850 15289 15007 6% 4% 3207 4803 12193 -74% -33% 1.6 2.3 5.9 -74% -33%
Tulip Telecom 6759 6022 5307 27% 12% 1966 1716 1545 27% 15% 975 817 795 23% 19% 5.9 5.0 4.8 23% 19%
Others
Arshiya International 2478 2125 1689 47% 17% 483 423 274 77% 14% 195 185 184 6% 6% 3.3 3.1 3.1 6% 6%
Century Plyboards 3680 3608 3255 13% 2% 849 482 634 34% 76% 266 268 404 -34% 0% 1.2 1.2 1.8 -34% 0%
Essel Propack 3643 3649 3013 21% 0% 669 601 486 38% 11% 192 96 61 215% 99% 1.2 0.6 0.4 215% 99%
HBL Power Systems 2197 2234 2998 -27% -2% 200 -53 420 -52% 39 -133 211 -81% 0.2 -0.5 0.8 -81%
Kajaria Ceramics 2536 2539 2149 18% 0% 398 397 308 29% 0% 177 176 128 38% 1% 2.4 2.4 1.7 38% 1%
Phoenix Mills 474 451 345 38% 5% 343 327 198 73% 5% 251 238 157 60% 6% 1.7 1.6 1.1 60% 6%
Piramal Glass 3163 3170 2900 9% 0% 716 780 679 5% -8% 190 231 115 66% -18% 2.4 2.9 1.4 66% -18%
Sintex Industries 14945 11860 10936 37% 26% 2572 1967 1932 33% 31% 1553 1126 1387 12% 38% 5.7 4.2 5.1 12% 38%
Sterlite Tech 7461 5791 6624 13% 29% 835 431 1101 -24% 94% 425 171 722 -41% 149% 1.1 0.4 1.8 -41% 149%
Top 10 Strong Stocks: Q4FY11 Result Preview
Emkay
©
Net Sales Growth Ebitda Growth
Adani Power 326.7% Adani Power 368.9%
Godrej Consumer Products 118.8% Hexaware Technologies 133.9%
KSK Energy 80.5% GSFC 85.8%
IRB Infrastructure 77.4% Jubilant FoodWorks 84.3%
Indo Tech 75.4% Arshiya International 76.6%
JSW Energy 63.1% Phoenix Mills 73.4%
Bharti Airtel 62.0% Gujarat Industries Power 72.3%
GNFC 60.1% KSK Energy 65.8%
Jubilant FoodWorks 58.2% Godrej Consumer Products 59.3%
Punj Lloyd 49.7% Tata Motors 58.7%
PAT Growth Ebitda Margin Growth
Hexaware Technologies 278.2% Punj Lloyd 3,534 bps
Essel Propack 215.4% GNFC 2,986 bps
Adani Power 207.1% Indo Tech 2,458 bps
Shree Cements 169.2% Phoenix Mills 1,499 bps
Madras Cements 112.8% Tamilnadu Newsprint 710 bps
Lanco Infratech 108.5% Gujarat Industries Power 709 bps
India Cements 107.8% GSFC 697 bps
Tata Motors 102.1% Panacea Biotec 667 bps
Jubilant FoodWorks 97.8% Madras Cements 665 bps
Piramal Glass 66.2% Grasim Industries 639 bps
Top 10 Weak Stocks: Q4FY11 Result Preview
Emkay
©
-78.1%
Jaiprakash Power Ventures -66.7% Ranbaxy Labs
HBL Power Systems -26.7% Jaiprakash Power Ventures -69.2%
Ranbaxy Labs -23.8% HBL Power Systems -52.4%
Panacea Biotec -22.0% JK Tyre -37.1%
Aban Offshore -19.3% Nava Bharat Ventures -35.0%
Garware Offshore -12.4% Jubilant Life Sciences -33.4%
Jubilant Life Sciences -12.0% Sterlite Tech -24.2%
Great Offshore -6.9% Dishman Pharma -22.7%
Lanco Infratech -4.1% Aban Offshore -20.8%
Tamilnadu Newsprint -3.3% Divi's Lab -20.7%
-2,709 bps
JK Tyre
-94.7% Ranbaxy Labs
Ranbaxy Labs -82.7% Nava Bharat Ventures -1,341 bps
HBL Pow er Systems -81.3% JSW Energy -1,146 bps
Reliance Communications -73.7% Sun Pharma -1,041 bps
Jaiprakash Power Ventures -70.6% Divi's Lab -942 bps
Aban Offshore -68.6% Shree Cements -932 bps
Dishman Pharma -65.7% IRB Infrastructure -897 bps
Jubilant Life Sciences -56.5% ACC -820 bps
Apollo Tyres -52.4% Ambuja Cements -711 bps
JSW Energy -48.6% Voltamp Transformers -709 bps
Top 5 Strong Sectors: Q4FY11 Result Preview Emkay
©
Agri Input &

Telecommunications 38.4% 48.7%
Chemicals
Engineering &
Auto Ancillaries 26.5% 48.7%
Capital Goods
Engineering &
25.8% Telecommunications 29.8%
Capital Goods
IT Services 24.5% Automobiles 28.6%
Consumers 21.9% Consumers 26.4%
Engineering & Agri Input &

54.5% 355 bps
Capital Goods Chemicals
Automobiles 40.8% Power 299 bps
Agri Input & Engineering &

34.2% 248 bps
Chemicals Capital Goods
182 bps
Consumers 30.0% Paper
96 bps
Print Media 18.6% Automobiles
Top 5 Weak Sectors: Q4FY11 Result Preview
Emkay
©
Offshore Oil Field

-16.5% Pharmaceuticals -20.0%
Services
Offshore Oil Field

Pharmaceuticals 5.8% -19.0%
Services
Paper 7.8% Metals & Mining -5.8%
Cement 13.5% Auto Ancillaries -2.3%
Power 14.5% Cement 1.9%
Offshore Oil Field -62.1% -641 bps

Pharmaceuticals
Services
Telecommunications -37.4% Metals & Mining -410 bps
Pharmaceuticals -26.3% Cement -280 bps
Auto Ancillaries -24.3% Auto Ancillaries -267 bps
Metals & Mining -17.6% Print Media -241 bps
Frequency Distribution (No. of Companies)
Emkay
©
Net Sales Grow th EBITDA Grow th
45 42 35
40 36 29
30
35 24
25 23 22
30
24
25 20
20 14
15
15 11
10 10
5
5
0
0-10 10-25 25-50 >50 0
<0 0-15 15-30 30-50 >50
PAT Growth
45 40
40
35
30
25
19 18 19
20 17
15
10
5
0
<0 0-15 15-30 30-50 >50
Frequency Distribution (Percentage) Emkay
©
Net Sales Growth EBITDA Growth
10% 13%
21%
25%
20%
32%
21%
37% 21%
0-10 10-25 25-50 >50 <0 0-15 15-30 30-50 >50
PAT Growth
17%
35%
16%
17% 15%
<0 0-15 15-30 30-50 >50
Emkay
©
Sectoral Analysis of Q4FY11 Results
Agri Input and Chemicals Emkay
©
n We expect our universe to report strong Q4FY11 results driven by higher profitability in fertiliser segment and
improved margins in chemical segment
n Aggregate revenues to increase by 21% while aggregate EBITDA growth is expected at 49% on account of 360 bps
expansion in aggregate EBITDA margins to 19.4%. We expect APAT growth of 34% for the universe
n Complex fertiliser sales volumes in Q4FY11 for the industry indicates marginal decline of 3% yoy (being Mar’11 data
provisional) while urea volumes increased by 15% yoy. Aggregate fertiliser revenues for our universe increased by
23% on account of volume growth and price increase while EBIT margins improved by 520 bps to 11.5%
n Chemical segment benefited from rising chemical prices as emkay chemical index increased by 8% yoy / 5% qoq.
Resulting aggregate chemical revenues registered a growth of 13%. On back of improving spread EBIT margins in
chemicals improved by 410 bps to 23.9%
n Agrochemicals sales are likely to remain strong in the quarter on account of some spill over sales from Q3FY11. We
also expect growth to pick up in European and North American markets on back of improved weather conditions
n We expect GNFC to post strong results driven by higher fertiliser sales (since company had production disruption in
previous year) and strong chemical prices. GSFC should report another strong quarter since caprolactam prices
remain at accelerated level during the quarter. Chambal Fertiliser is expected to benefit from higher urea prices on
the production above cut off during the quarter
n Our outlook on the sector remain strong and we expect that complex fertiliser sales volumes to pick up in Q1FY12.
Chemicals prices are likely to remain buoyant driven by firm demand
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
Name Mar’11E Dec’10 Mar’10 Comments
YoY QoQ
Chambal Fertilisers
CMP(Rs) 89 Net Sales (Rs mn) 9,100 13,588 7,193 26.5% -33.0% We expect strong revenue growth of 27% to Rs 9.1 bn
driven by higher fertiliser sales and trading. Revenues from
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 37 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,067 2,128 1,653 25.0% -2.9% shipping and textiles to remain flat. We expect overall
EBITDA margins to contract marginally by 30 bps yoy to
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 22.7 15.7 23.0 -27 bps 706 bps 22.7% due to higher trading while absolute EBITDA is
estimated to grow by 25% yoy to Rs 2.1 bn. APAT to
Target Price (Rs) 86 PAT (Rs mn) 910 903 579 57.2% 0.8% increase by 57% to Rs 910 mn and AEPS of Rs 2.2
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 2.2 2.2 1.4 57.2% 0.8%
Coromandel International
CMP(Rs) 299 Net Sales (Rs mn) 13,650 20,503 13,648 0.0% -33.4% We expect fertilizer sale volumes to decline by 6.0% yoy to
525,000 mt while on account of higher realisations revenue
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 84 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,523 2,238 1,201 26.8% -32.0% growth is expected to remain flat. With blended EBITDA /
MT at Rs 2900 (+35% yoy), we expect EBITDA margins to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 11.2 10.9 8.8 235 bps 24 bps expand by 240bps to 11.2% resulting in 27% growth in
overall EBITDA to Rs 1.5 bn. The company is likely to
Target Price (Rs) 435 PAT (Rs mn) 989 1,437 821 20.5% -31.2% report APAT of Rs 989 mn and AEPS of Rs 3.5 for the
quarter.
% Upside 45% EPS (Rs) 3.5 5.1 2.9 20.5% -31.2%
Deepak Fertilisers
CMP(Rs) 176 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,789 3,750 3,238 17.0% 1.0% Due to increased trading volumes and increased fertiliser
prices, we expect 50% yoy increase in fertiliser segment
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 16 EBITDA (Rs mn) 888 819 803 10.7% 8.5% revenues. Chemical revenues are expected to increase by
8% yoy to Rs 2.7 bn backed by increase in chemical prices
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 23.4 21.8 24.8 -134 bps 161 bps and volumes. Chemical segment margins are expected to
contract by 100 bps to 27%, while flat fertilizer margins at
Target Price (Rs) 250 PAT (Rs mn) 458 446 445 3.0% 2.8% 5% is likely to result in contraction in overall EBITDA
margins by 140 bps to 23.4%. Consequently we estimate
% Upside 42% EPS (Rs) 5.2 5.1 5.0 3.0% 2.8%
APAT of Rs 458 mn and AEPS of Rs 5.2
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
GNFC We estimate net revenues to increase by 60% to Rs 8.1 bn

due to higher fertiliser sales. GNFC’s Q4FY10 results
CMP(Rs) 108 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,112 8,339 5,066 60.1% -2.7% suffered due to shutdown of its urea plant as a result
fertiliser sales volumes to double to 250,000 mt. fertiliser
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 17 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,524 1,539 -561 n.a -1.0% segment to report EBIT of Rs 300 mn as against loss of Rs
485 mn in previous year. Chemical prices remain buoyant
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 18.8 18.5 -11.1 2,986 bps 32 bps and hence chemical EBIT is expected to increase by 32% to
Rs 919 mn. Resulting company to report EBITDA of Rs 1.5
Target Price (Rs) 157 PAT (Rs mn) 902 884 -382 n.a 2.1%
bn as against loss of Rs 561 mn previous year and APAT of
% Upside 45% EPS (Rs) 5.8 5.7 -2.5 n.a 2.1% Rs 902 mn as against loss of Rs 383 mn
GSFC
CMP(Rs) 386 Net Sales (Rs mn) 10,781 12,272 7,825 37.8% -12.1% Driven by higher fertiliser sales and chemical realisations,
we expect revenues to grow by 38% to Rs 10.8 bn. EBITDA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 31 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,907 3,157 1,564 85.8% -7.9% margins to improve by 700 bps yoy to 27% driven by
favourable spread in chemicals (finished product -
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 27.0 25.7 20.0 697 bps 124 bps Caprolactam vs Raw material - Benzene). Chemical
segment EBIT is estimated to increase to 40% (31.5%) while
Target Price (Rs) 530 PAT (Rs mn) 1,764 2,021 1,288 37.0% -12.7% we expect fertilizer segment EBIT margin to be around 15%
(-5.4%). We expect APAT to increase by 37% to Rs 1.76 bn
% Upside 37% EPS (Rs) 22.1 25.3 16.2 37.0% -12.7%
resulting in AEPS of Rs 22.1.
Rallis India
CMP(Rs) 1,418 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,559 2,714 2,031 26.0% -5.7% We estimate revenue growth of 26% yoy to Rs 2.6 bn. We
expect sales spill over from previous quarter due to delay
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 28 EBITDA (Rs mn) 506 512 375 35.1% -1.2% in monsoon to drive revenues for the current quarter. We
expect EBITDA margin improvement of 130bp yoy to 19.8%
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8 18.9 18.5 133 bps 91 bps resulting in 35% growth in EBITDA to Rs 506 mn. APAT is
expected to increase by 41% to Rs 333 mn resulting in
Target Price (Rs) 1,800 PAT (Rs mn) 333 337 235 41.5% -1.1% AEPS of Rs 17.1
% Upside 27% EPS (Rs) 17.1 17.3 12.1 41.5% -1.1%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Tata Chemicals
CMP(Rs) 360 Net Sales (Rs mn) 28,573 28,909 22,676 26.0% -1.2% We expect standalone revenues at Rs 16.2 bn, +31% yoy
and APAT of Rs 1.3 bn. We expect increase in revenues for
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 92 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,249 4,414 4,093 28.3% 18.9% BMGL by 9% yoy to Rs 4.1 bn. IMACID is likely to report
41% growth in revenues to Rs 1.2 bn while revenues for
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 15.3 18.0 32 bps 310 bps GCIP are likely to witness modest growth of 2% to Rs 4.5
bn. We estimate consolidated revenues to increase by 26%
Target Price (Rs) 393 PAT (Rs mn) 1,978 1,492 1,723 14.8% 32.5% yoy to Rs 28.6 bn, EBITDA margins to improve by 40 bps to
18.4%o, APAT of Rs 2.0 bn, +15% yoy, AEPS of Rs 8.1
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 8.1 6.1 7.1 14.8% 32.5%
United Phosphorus
CMP(Rs) 155 Net Sales (Rs mn) 16,826 12,221 15,190 10.8% 37.7% We expect overall revenue growth of 11% yoy to Rs 16.8 bn
mainly driven by RoW (35%), India (20%) and North
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 71 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,427 2,215 3,034 12.9% 54.7% America (10%) while Europe to remain sluggish (-15%). We
estimate EBITDA margin expansion of 40 bps to 20.4%
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 20.4 18.1 20.0 39 bps 225 bps along with 13% yoy growth in EBITDA to Rs 3.4 bn. We
estimate PBT to grow marginally by 3% to Rs 2.7 bn while
Target Price (Rs) 210 PAT (Rs mn) 2,332 1,109 2,496 -6.6% 110.3% losses reported by associate company Advanta of Rs 200
mn in Dec’2010 to drag profitability. We expect APAT to
% Upside 36% EPS (Rs) 5.3 2.5 5.7 -6.6% 110.3%
decline by 6.6% to Rs 2.3 bn and AEPS of Rs 5.3.
Auto Ancillaries
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Apollo Tyres*
CMP(Rs) 68 Net Sales (Rs mn) 17,546 14,321 13,128 33.7% 22.5% We expect ATL performance to remain subdued due to high
rubber prices and lack of pricing action to pass on the cost.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 34 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,574 1,491 1,846 -14.7% 5.6% We expect EBIDTA margins to decline by 510 bps YoY and
140 bps QoQ to 9.0%. Key things to watch out for is the
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 9.0 10.4 14.1 -509 bps -144 bps pricing action to pass on the cost pressures and
performance of VBBV and Dunlop subsidiaries
Target Price (Rs) 58 PAT (Rs mn) 553 548 1,162 -52.4% 0.9%
% Upside -15% EPS (Rs) 1.1 1.1 2.3 -52.4% 0.9%
JK Tyres & Industries
CMP(Rs) 106 Net Sales (Rs mn) 13,233 11,785 10,476 26.3% 12.3% We expect JKT performance to remain lackluster due to
high rubber prices and lack of pricing action to pass on the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 4 EBITDA (Rs mn) 498 619 792 -37.1% -19.6% cost. We expect EBIDTA margins to decline by 380 bps YoY
and 150 bps QoQ to 3.8%. Key things to watch out for is the
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 3.8 5.3 7.6 -379 bps -149 bps pricing action to pass on the cost pressures and outlook
for rubber prices in FY12
Target Price (Rs) 118 PAT (Rs mn) 14 91 267 -94.7% -84.5%
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 0.3 2.2 6.5 -94.7% -84.5%
Motherson Sumi
CMP(Rs) 222 Net Sales (Rs mn) 24,740 21,276 20,279 22.0% 16.3% We expect MSSL to report strong 22% YOY and 16% QoQ
growth in sales due to higher car volumes. Expect EBIDTA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 86 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,938 2,216 2,493 17.9% 32.6% margins to improve by 150bps QoQ but decline 42 bps YoY.
Key things to watch out for growth outlook and currency
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 10.4 12.3 -42 bps 146 bps impact (translational loss/gain).
Target Price (Rs) 210 PAT (Rs mn) 1,170 951 865 35.2% 23.1%
% Upside -5% EPS (Rs) 3.0 2.5 2.2 35.2% 23.1%
*standalone performance
Automobiles
Emkay
©
n We expect our automobile universe to report 20% YoY/7% QoQ growth in sales to Rs 663bn due to strong volume
growth driven by end of fiscal year sales.
n EBIDTA at Rs 92 bn is also expected to grow by 29% YoY/ 12% QoQ. Excl. TML subs, EBITDA growth to moderate to
6% YoY/14% QoQ to Rs 55 bn.
n Consequently, EBIDTA margins would expand by 100 bpsYoY/60bps QoQ to 13.9%. Excluding TML subs, margins to
register decline of 150bps YoY due to higher RM costs. However, QoQ margins to expand by 40 bps driven by
operating leverage on higher volumes.
n APAT at Rs 59bn should report a strong growth of 41% YoY/17% QoQ. Ex TML subs, APAT will grow marginally by 6%
YoY/17% QoQ to Rs 35bn input notably Steel, Rubber and Aluminum which have increased 17%, 16% and 7% over
last quarter.
n Only TML (due to JLR) is expected to report YoY margin expansion. QoQ margins expansion will be witnessed in ALL
(390 bps), HH (150 bps), TVS (45 bps), EML (28 bps) and MSIL (22 bps). BAL and M&M are likely to face margin
contraction QoQ/YoY
n We maintain our BUY on BAL, M&M and TML. Post 3QFY11 results, we had upgraded ALL, MSIL and TVS to
ACCUMULATE. We maintain our REDUCE rating on Hero Honda
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Ashok Leyland
CMP(Rs) 58 Net Sales (Rs mn) 35,828 22,272 29,390 21.9% 60.9% We expect ALL to report strong earnings growth of 23%
YoY/300% QoQ driven by robust volumes of 15% YoY/14%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 77 EBITDA (Rs mn) 4,502 1,920 3,784 19.0% 134.4% QoQ. Margins to decline 30 bps YoY but improve by 400
bps QoQ due to benefit of operating leverage and higher
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 12.6 8.6 12.9 -31 bps 394 bps production at Pantnagar (7000 units in 4QFY11). Key things
to watch out for (1) Ramup in volume at Pantnagar and (2)
Target Price (Rs) 68 PAT (Rs mn) 2,753 694 2,231 23.4% 296.9% raw material cost pressures.
% Upside 18% EPS (Rs) 2.1 0.5 1.7 23.4% 296.9%
Bajaj Auto
CMP(Rs) 1,439 Net Sales (Rs mn) 42,286 41,771 33,995 24.4% 1.2% We expect BAL to report strong numbers driven by higher
volume growth (17% YoY/flat QoQ). Margins to decline by
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 416 EBITDA (Rs mn) 8,469 8,473 7,771 9.0% 0.0% 30 bps QoQ/290 bps YoY due to higher RM costs. Key
things to watch out for (1) New product launch details and
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 20.0 20.3 22.9 -283 bps -26 bps (2) raw material cost pressures.
Target Price (Rs) 1,650 PAT (Rs mn) 6,601 6,651 5,642 17.0% -0.8%
% Upside 15% EPS (Rs) 22.8 23.0 19.5 17.0% -0.8%
Eicher Motors
CMP(Rs) 1,261 Net Sales (Rs mn) 13,653 12,435 10,409 31.2% 9.8% We expect Eicher to report strong numbers for 4QFY11
driven by strong volumes (33% YoY/18% QoQ). EBIDTA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 34 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,362 1,205 912 49.4% 13.0% margins to improve 30 bps QoQ /120 bps YoY driven by
improved product mix and benefits from operating
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 10.0 9.7 8.8 121 bps 28 bps leverage. Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price
contracts and (2) guidance for FY12
Target Price (Rs) 1,505 PAT (Rs mn) 639 552 402 58.9% 15.7%
% Upside 19% EPS (Rs) 23.7 20.5 15.1 57.5% 15.7%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Hero Honda
CMP(Rs) 1,695 Net Sales (Rs mn) 51,119 51,617 41,223 24.0% -1.0% 4QFY11 to benefit from strong volumes of 22.6% YoY/ 2.5%
QoQ. Margins to expand by 160 bps QoQ but decline 440
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 338 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,497 5,767 7,117 -8.7% 12.7% bps YoY. Key things to watch out for (1) Capacity
expansion plans and (2) Cost pressures.
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 11.2 17.3 -456 bps 154 bps
Target Price (Rs) 1,540 PAT (Rs mn) 5,407 5,089 5,988 -9.7% 6.2%
% Upside -9% EPS (Rs) 27.1 25.5 30.0 -9.7% 6.2%
M&M
CMP(Rs) 732 Net Sales (Rs mn) 67,795 61,211 53,046 27.8% 10.8% We expect M&M to report strong topline driven by volume
growth of 25% YoY/ 8% QoQ. However, EBITDA margins to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 450 EBITDA (Rs mn) 9,798 9,238 8,456 15.9% 6.1% decline by -140 bps YoY/ -60 bps QoQ due to cost
pressures and higher production at 100% subsidiary
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 14.5 15.1 15.9 -149 bps -64 bps (MVML). Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price
contracts and (2) tractor segment performance.
Target Price (Rs) 830 PAT (Rs mn) 6,355 6,172 5,703 11.4% 3.0%
% Upside 13% EPS (Rs) 10.3 10.0 9.8 4.8% 3.0%
Maruti Suzuki
CMP(Rs) 1,279 Net Sales (Rs mn) 101,653 94,945 84,246 20.7% 7.1% 4QFY11 to benefit from strong volumes of 19.5% YoY/3.9%
QoQ. Margins to expand by 20 bps QoQ (-300 bps YoY) on
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 370 EBITDA (Rs mn) 10,239 9,358 11,111 -7.8% 9.4% improvement in product mix and pricing action. Key things
to watch out for (1) Capacity expansion plans (2) raw
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 10.1 9.9 13.2 -312 bps 22 bps material cost pressure and (3) Currency hedging
% Upside 15% EPS (Rs) 22.7 20.7 22.7 -0.1% 9.5%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Tata Motors
CMP(Rs) 1,292 Net Sales (Rs mn) 333,779 316,852 289,778 15.2% 5.3% Consolidated margins to improve 410 bps YoY/ 80 bps QoQ
to 15.0% driven by JLR. JLR to report strong set of
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 694 EBITDA (Rs mn) 49,921 44,886 31,454 58.7% 11.2% numbers YoY (89% growth in EBIDTA). Standalone
business should also report improvement in margins by 40
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 15.0 14.2 10.9 410 bps 79 bps bps QoQ/YoY due to operating leverage benefits. Key
things to watch for (1) JLR – raw material cost pressure
Target Price (Rs) 1,520 PAT (Rs mn) 29,936 24,533 14,814 102.1% 22.0% outlook for FY12 (2) MHCV outlook for FY12
% Upside 18% EPS (Rs) 45.4 37.2 27.2 66.7% 22.0%
TVS Motors
CMP(Rs) 60 Net Sales (Rs mn) 17,135 16,467 12,160 40.9% 4.1% We expect TVS to report strong numbers for 4QFY11 driven
by strong volumes (27.7% YoY/1.8% QoQ). EBIDTA margins
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 28 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,124 1,006 862 30.4% 11.8% to improve 50 bps QoQ to 6.6% (decline 50 bps YoY) driven
by improved product mix and benefits from operating
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 6.6 6.1 7.1 -53 bps 45 bps leverage. Key things to watch out for (1) raw material price
contracts and (2) Indonesia business as volumes have
Target Price (Rs) 72 PAT (Rs mn) 594 558 459 29.5% 6.6% nosedived in Indonesia.
% Upside 20% EPS (Rs) 1.3 1.2 1.0 29.5% 6.6%
Banking and Financial Services
Emkay
©
n Earnings momentum expected to slow down for PSU banks during Q4FY11 as we expect growth in the overall as well
core earnings of the banks to grow by 5.9% qoq and 5.6% qoq compared to 12.1% qoq and 12.3% qoq in Q3FY11
n The advance growth picked up pace during the quarter to 23.2%, with deposit growth also improving to 16.7% as on
March 11, 2011, resulting in 230bps expansion in CD ratio
n Q4FY11 witnessed liquidity crunch for large part of the quarter and consequently the costs have risen. However,
driven by banks’ agility to pass on the costs and 230bps expansion in CDR to restrict the compression in NIMs to just
5-15bps qoq. The NIMs still to expand on yoy basis due to low base effect
n We expect the PSU banks to report 32.6%yoy (1.1% qoq) and Private banks to report 20%yoy (3.1% qoq) growth in NII
led by strong growth in advance.
n The bond yields have hardened by 7bps and 24bps towards the long and the short end respectively. As a result,
treasury gains likely to be muted during the quarter.
n Employee expenses could rise substantially as PSU banks need to provide for the second pension liability related to
retired employees in FY11 itself . However, banks have requested the RBI for an extension and are awaiting a final
decision on the same.
n Key factors to watch out – (1) RBI decision on pension liabilities for retired employees, (2) NPAs as the banks move
to system recognized NPAs (3) restructuring in MFI books (4) signs of pick up in recoveries and upgradations
n Our top picks for the quarterly results – Axis Bank, Allahabad Bank, Bank of Baroda, Union bank of India, LICHF,
MAGFIL, Mahindra Finance and CRISIL
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Allahabad Bank
CMP(Rs) 232 NII (Rs mn) 10,598 10,516 7,426 42.7% 0.8% Allahabad Bank to report strong 42.7 % yoy growth in NII
led by healthy growth in advances (~29%yoy) and broadly
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 104 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 8,805 7,882 6,579 33.8% 11.7% stable NIM’s. Moreover higher provisioning and tax
expenses (37%) in Q4FY10 to result in relatively higher PAT
Reco Buy NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 2.6 -8 bps 46 bps growth in Q4FY11. Key things to watch- CASA mix and
provision on account of pension liability for retired emp.
% Upside 8% EPS (Rs) 10.2 9.3 5.0 102.3% 9.3%
Andhra Bank
CMP(Rs) 156 NII (Rs mn) 8,556 8,399 6,562 30.4% 1.9% Andhra Bank expected to report 30.4 % yoy growth in NII
driven by 24% growth in advances. However ALM mismatch
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 76 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 6,504 6,266 5,269 23.4% 3.8% and lower increase in PLR to result in 17bps contraction in
NIMs. Key things to watch – Slippage rate, NPA
Reco Buy NIM (%) 3.4 3.6 3.1 -17 bps 29 bps provisioning, and CASA mix
% Upside 6% EPS (Rs) 6.8 6.8 4.9 38.4% 0.4%
Axis Bank
CMP(Rs) 1,447 NII (Rs mn) 18,855 17,331 14,601 29.1% 8.8% Expect strong growth in NII driven by high advances
growth (27%). Key things to watch 1) Net interest margins
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 594 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 18,861 16,585 13,838 36.3% 13.7% 2) Slippages- as the bank has significant exposure to
troubled sectors like telecom (6% of loans) and MFI
Reco Hold NIM (%) 3.5 3.4 3.5 12 bps 0 bps
Target Price (Rs) 1,300 PAT (Rs mn) 10,320 8,914 7,649 34.9% 15.8%
% Upside -10% EPS (Rs) 25.2 21.7 18.9 33.4% 15.8%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Bank of Baroda
CMP(Rs) 980 NII (Rs mn) 23,730 22,923 17,449 36.0% 3.5% Net interest income likely to be strong led by robust
advance growth and swift increase in lending rates. Key
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 357 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 19,827 18,512 15,473 28.1% 7.1% things to watch – Advance growth and pension provision
for the quarter. BOB is odd man in the PSU pack in terms of
Reco Buy NIM (%) 2.8 2.9 2.6 -6 bps 16 bps NPAs, so sustainability to be watched
% Upside 18% EPS (Rs) 33.2 29.2 23.2 43.3% 13.6%
Bank of India
CMP(Rs) 488 NII (Rs mn) 20,236 19,869 15,521 30.4% 1.8% BOI to report strong 30% yoy growth in NII led by 20.1%
growth in advances, albeit NIM’s to contracts marginally by
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 256 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 15,191 13,888 12,756 19.1% 9.4% 7bps. The pressure on asset quality is likely to alleviate
with significant recoveries and up gradation expected
Reco Accumulate NIM (%) 2.6 2.7 2.4 -7 bps 26 bps during the quarter. Key things to watch – 1) Slippage rate 2)
recoveries 3) credit cost
% Upside 5% EPS (Rs) 13.9 12.4 8.1 71.2% 12.2%
Canara Bank
CMP(Rs) 641 NII (Rs mn) 22,256 21,192 15,976 39.3% 5.0% The bank’s NII growth likely to be strong led by 24% growth
in advances and stable NIM’s at 2.9%. Moreover Earnings
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 284 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 15,031 15,140 14,304 5.1% -0.7% growth to be relatively higher due to favourable base effect.
Key things to watch – 1) NPA Provisioning 2) CASA mix
Reco Hold NIM (%) 2.9 2.9 2.6 -1 bps 33 bps
Target Price (Rs) 640 PAT (Rs mn) 9,650 11,067 5,034 91.7% -12.8%
% Upside 0% EPS (Rs) 23.5 27.0 12.2 92.3% -12.8%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Corporation Bank
CMP(Rs) 632 NII (Rs mn) 8,054 8,423 6,398 25.9% -4.4% The NII is likely to grow by a moderate 26%yoy led by 21bps
qoq contraction in NIM’s and 19.5% growth in advances.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 91 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 7,604 7,369 5,451 39.5% 3.2% Key things to watch 1) Slippages (have gone up in last few
quarters) and recovery 2) NPA provisioning 3) CASA mix
Reco Buy NIM (%) 2.6 2.8 2.4 -21 bps 16 bps
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 29.9 26.7 21.8 37.3% 12.2%
HDFC Bank Ltd.
CMP(Rs) 2,355 NII (Rs mn) 28,027 27,767 23,514 19.2% 0.9% HDFC bank’s NII is expected to grow by 19.2%yoy driven by
34% growth in advances and stable NIM’s. Fee income also
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,096 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 20,570 20,727 16,944 21.4% -0.8% likely to grow strong in tandem with growth in advances.
Key things to watch – provisioning and Cost ratios.
Reco Hold NIM (%) 4.4 4.4 4.4 -8 bps -4 bps
% Upside -11% EPS (Rs) 23.8 23.4 18.3 30.1% 1.5%
ICICI Bank Ltd.
CMP(Rs) 1,102 NII (Rs mn) 23,298 23,117 20,349 14.5% 0.8% ICICI bank’s NII is likely to grow by 14.5% driven by 20%
growth in advances and stable margins. Key thing to watch
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,270 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 24,385 23,426 23,991 1.6% 4.1% – movement in NIMs as the bank has started growing its
balance sheet
Reco Hold NIM (%) 2.3 2.4 2.3 -5 bps 5 bps
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 12.5 12.5 9.0 38.7% 0.3%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Punjab National Bank
CMP(Rs) 1,201 NII (Rs mn) 31,134 32,041 24,980 24.6% -2.8% We expect PNB’s NII to grow by 24.6%yoy driven by a
24.5% growth in advances, albeit NIM’s to contract by
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 379 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 21,314 23,508 22,510 -5.3% -9.3% 14bps qoq (adjusted for one-time income). Key thing to
watch out - Slippages and recoveries as the strong
Reco Buy NIM (%) 3.5 3.8 3.5 -27 bps 6 bps operating performance is being marred by provisions for
last few quarters
% Upside 25% EPS (Rs) 35.9 34.6 34.3 4.8% 3.9%
State Bank of India
CMP(Rs) 2,808 NII (Rs mn) 91,783 90,498 67,215 36.6% 1.4% The NII to grow by 36.6% led by 20.2% growth in advances
and stable NIM’s. However need for improve provision
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,783 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 67,898 67,644 51,939 30.7% 0.4% cover to 70% and high duration of AFS portfolio could hurt.
Key things to watch 1) Slippages 2) pension liabilities on
Reco Accumulate NIM (%) 3.2 3.1 2.6 1 bps 54 bps account of salary revisions
% Upside 7% EPS (Rs) 47.6 44.5 29.4 62.0% 7.0%
South Indian Bank
CMP(Rs) 23 NII (Rs mn) 2,082 2,048 1,503 38.5% 1.6% We expect SIB’s NII to grow by 38.5% driven by 26.3%
growth in advances, albeit NIM’s to contract by 10bps.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 26 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 1,457 1,429 1,110 31.3% 2.0% However a very low tax rate of 8% in Q4FY10 to result in
negative growth in PAT. Key things to watch 1) Growth in
Reco Buy NIM (%) 2.8 2.9 2.5 -9 bps 30 bps gold loan portfolio
Target Price (Rs) 30 PAT (Rs mn) 862 753 995 -13.4% 14.5%
% Upside 29% EPS (Rs) 0.8 0.7 0.9 -14.5% 14.5%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Union Bank of India
CMP(Rs) 351 NII (Rs mn) 16,538 16,158 13,961 18.5% 2.4% The bank is likely to report 18.5% growth in NII led by 18.9%
growth in advances. However lower trading gains and
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 177 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 13,005 12,605 11,473 13.4% 3.2% higher provisioning will offset some growth. Provisioning
costs to remain high as PCR has fallen to 55.4% Key things
Reco Hold NIM (%) 3.0 3.1 3.0 -7 bps -3 bps to watch 1) Growth in fee income 2) Slippages and
provisioning.
% Upside 5% EPS (Rs) 13.6 11.5 11.8 15.6% 18.5%
United Bank of India
CMP(Rs) 112 NII (Rs mn) 5,602 5,597 4,219 32.8% 0.1% The bank NII is likely to grow by 32.8% led by 24.5% growth
in advances, albeit NIM to contract by 10bps. Provisioning
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 35 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 3,998 3,867 2,873 39.2% 3.4% costs to remain high as reported PCR is 52.6%. Key things
to watch 1) Slippages 2) growth in CASA
Reco Buy NIM (%) 2.6 2.7 2.2 -10 bps 41 bps
Target Price (Rs) 130 PAT (Rs mn) 1,535 1,631 463 231.6% -5.9%
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 4.9 5.2 1.5 231.6% -5.9%
YES Bank
CMP(Rs) 330 NII (Rs mn) 3,509 3,232 2,442 43.7% 8.6% Robust advances growth to result in 43.7% yoy growth in
NII for Yes Bank.. Other income likely to remain strong
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 115 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 3,321 3,113 2,575 28.9% 6.7% underpinned by healthy advance growth. Key things to
watch out- 1)Advance growth 2) NIM
Reco Accumulate NIM (%) 2.5 2.5 3.0 6 bps -41 bps
% Upside -9% EPS (Rs) 5.9 5.5 4.1 42.1% 6.3%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
LIC HSG FIN
CMP(Rs) 231 NII (Rs mn) 3,775 3,522 2,980 26.7% 7.2% LICHF’s net operating revenue is likely to grow by
26.7%yoy driven by 34% growth in loans. With very
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 110 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 3,725 3,524 2,856 30.4% 5.7% negligible NPAs and provisions, the adj. net profit would
grow by 25.6%.
Reco Buy NIM (%) 3.1 3.2 3.3 -6 bps -17 bps
% Upside -9% EPS (Rs) 5.7 6.2 4.5 25.7% -9.2%
Mahindra Finance
CMP(Rs) 778 NII (Rs mn) 4,173 3,391 3,439 21.3% 23.1% MFSL likely to report 21.3% growth in NII led by 78% growth
in disbursement, albeit NIM to contract by 17bps yoy. Key
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 81 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 2,977 2,278 2,507 18.8% 30.7% things to watch – 1) Growth in CV and car sales 2) Margins
Reco Buy NIM (%) 14.3 11.6 15.6 262 bps -132 bps
% Upside 12% EPS (Rs) 18.0 14.0 14.6 23.0% 28.4%
MAGFIL
CMP(Rs) 131 NII (Rs mn) 2,768 2,334 1,115 148.3% 18.6% We expect MAGFIL to report a robust 148% yoy growth in
NII driven by healthy growth in balance sheet aided by
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 55 Operating Profit (Rs mn) 1,597 1,240 666 139.7% 28.8% significant addition to the branch network. Key things to
watch out – expansion of the branch network and outlook
Reco Buy NIM (%) 14.2 14.2 15.2 0 bps -97 bps and movement in the NPAs
Target Price (Rs) 120 PAT (Rs mn) 963 745 408 136.1% 29.2%
% Upside -9% EPS (Rs) 2.3 1.8 2.4 -3.5% 29.2%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
ICRA
CMP(Rs) 1,145 Net Sales (Rs mn) 560 472 507 10.5% 18.6% We expect ICRA to report a 10.5% growth in revenues led
by rating, consulting and BPO business. The operating
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 11 EBITDA (Rs mn) 206 137 208 -1.2% 50.3% margin to contract by 430bps yoy to 36.7% on account of
lower yields on incremental business. As a result the
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 36.7 29.0 41.0 -431 bps 775 bps reported PAT to decline by 6.7% yoy.
Target Price (Rs) 1,370 PAT (Rs mn) 151 113 162 -6.7% 33.6%
% Upside 20% EPS (Rs) 15.1 11.3 16.2 -6.7% 33.6%
CRISIL
CMP(Rs) 6,751 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,024 1,765 1,433 41.2% 14.7% We expect CRISIL’s revenues to grow by 36.7% yoy
primarily led by research and rating business. The OPMs to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 48 EBITDA (Rs mn) 912 685 462 97.5% 33.1% expand further driven by operating leverage. Traction in
IREVNA, Pipal Research and advisory business will be the
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 45.0 38.8 32.2 1,284 bps 623 bps key things to watch out.
Target Price (Rs) 7,000 PAT (Rs mn) 577 499 485 19.0% 15.6%
% Upside 4% EPS (Rs) 79.9 69.1 67.1 19.0% 15.6%
Cement
Emkay
©
n Though on a yoy basis our cement coverage universe is expected to see a 5.9% earnings decline in Q4FY11,
sequentially the performance is expected to improve sharply led by successive price hikes taken in Jan-March 2011.
All India cement dispatches for the first 2 months of Q4FY11 have grown at 4.9% yoy showing some signs of recovery
from the flattish growth witnessed in Q3FY11. Cement prices continued their uptrend and averaged at Rs258/bag for
the quarter up 9.3% yoy and 8.6% qoq led by pricing discipline exercised by cement producers across regions.
n We expect cement companies under our coverage to report topline growth of 9.4% yoy. Pure cement sales are
expected to grow 9%yoy led by 1.8% growth in volumes and 7.2% yoy improvement in realizations. Volumes for south
based players however are expected to decline by 14.3% yoy due to production cuts exercised to maintain prices and
the slow pick up in demand in southern region.
n With hyper inflation in energy prices (international coal prices averaging USD120) total cost per tonne is expected to
increase by 12.3% yoy. Pure cement EBDITA is expected to register a decline of 5.5% yoy with EBIDTA/t at Rs887 (-
7.1% yoy). Consequently aggregate EBIDTA is expected to decline by 5.2% yoy with margins shrinking 350 bps to
22.7%. Further rising interest costs (+30.7% yoy) are expected to drag down net profit by 5.9% yoy.
n We expect cement prices to remain buoyant at least for the next few quarters, driven by seasonality in demand and
the pricing discipline across regions. However amidst supply issues and related pricing pressures that the sector is
witnessing, the pivotal concern now is the revival of demand which could drive any sort of upgrades for the sector.
n Maintain our NEUTRAL stance on the sector. Maintain negative stance on, Ultratech, Ambuja Cement and India
cements, remain positive on ACC & Grasim.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
ACC ACC revenue for Q1CY11 is expected to grow by 15% yoy

to Rs24.16bn on account of 3% growth in cement
CMP(Rs) 1,129 Net Sales (Rs mn) 24,166 19,576 21,018 15.0% 23.4% realization yoy to Rs3879/ton and 11.6% growth in cement
volumes at 6.23 mnt. ACC’s EBIDTA at Rs5.17 bn is
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 212 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,172 2,800 6,222 -16.9% 84.7% expected to witness a decline of 16.9%yoy due to
increasing P&F & raw material costs. EBIDTA margins are
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 21.4 14.3 29.6 -820 bps 710 bps expected to shrink by 820 bps to 21.4%. Consequently
APAT for the quarter is expected to decline by 19% to
Rs3.28 bn.
% Upside -8% EPS (Rs) 17.5 9.6 21.6 -19.1% 81.5%
ACL ACL is expected do revenues of Rs22.05bn, growth of

10.8% yoy. On account of volume growth of 7.4% yoy (5.66
CMP(Rs) 151 Net Sales (Rs mn) 22,057 17,885 19,902 10.8% 23.3% mnt) and cement realizations which grew by 3.2% yoy to Rs
3896/t.However EBITDA/t is expected to drop by 20.3% yoy
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 231 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,332 3,140 6,227 -14.4% 69.8% to Rs942/t though sequentially it is expected to grow by
49.7%. ACL’s EBITDA is expected to decline by 14.4% yoy
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 24.2 17.6 31.3 -711 bps 661 bps to Rs5.33bn with EBIDTA margin shrinking 710 bps yoy but
improving 660 bps qoq to 24.2%. PAT for the quarter is
Target Price (Rs) 130 PAT (Rs mn) 3,270 2,139 4,520 -27.6% 52.9%
expected to decline by 27.6%yoy but improve 53% qoq to
% Upside -14% EPS (Rs) 2.2 1.4 3.0 -27.6% 52.9% Rs3.27 bn.
Grasim Grasim’s like to like standalone net revenue for the quarter
is expected to grow by 25.4%yoy to Rs13.84bn with VSF
CMP(Rs) 2,520 Net Sales (Rs mn) 13837 12137 11037 25.4 14.0 segment reporting growth of 21.8% yoy and 12.7%qoq at
Rs12.7bn whereas the chemical business segment
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 231 EBITDA (Rs mn) 4691 3635 3037 54.5 29.1 revenues growing 22% yoy. VSF realizations are expected
to improve this quarter by 25.5% yoy. Overall EBIDTA at
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 33.9 29.9 27.5 638.5 395.8 Rs4.69bn is expected to grow by 54.5%yoy. Consequently,
pre-exceptional net profit at Rs3.39bn is expected to grow
Target Price (Rs) 2,730 PAT (Rs mn) 3397 2827 2894 17.4 20.2
by 17.4% yoy.
% Upside 8% EPS (Rs) 37.1 30.8 31.6 17.4 20.2
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Ultratech Revenues are expected to grow by 18.5%qoq to Rs44 bn.

Cement volumes for the quarter are expected to improve by
CMP(Rs) 1,102 Net Sales (Rs mn) 44,034 37,152 19,094 130.6% 18.5% 11.9% qoq at 10.8 mnt . Realizations at Rs4090/tonne are
set to improve by 5.9% qoq while EBITDA/t is expected to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 302 EBITDA (Rs mn) 9,687 7,078 4,027 140.6% 36.9% grow 22% qoq to Rs900/tonne. EBITDA margins are
expected to expand 290bps sequentially to 22% on account
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 22.0 19.1 21.1 91 bps 295 bps of better realizations and volume growth qoq.
Consequently EBITDA at Rs9.68bn is expected to grow by
Target Price (Rs) 1,040 PAT (Rs mn) 5,055 3,189 2,286 121.2% 58.5% 36.9%qoq. Consequently, net profit is expected to be at Rs
5.05 bn , a growth of 58.5% on qoq basis.
% Upside -6% EPS (Rs) 18.5 11.7 8.4 121.2% 58.5%
India Cement Net revenues for the quarter are expected to grow by 6.6%
yoy to Rs10.28bn. Cement revenue at Rs9.9bn are expected
CMP(Rs) 103 Net Sales (Rs mn) 10,283 7,810 9,643 6.6% 31.7% to improve by 8% yoy as 13.6% decline in volumes is
negated by 25% improvement in realizations to Rs3901/t.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 32 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,067 1,263 1,420 45.6% 63.7% EBITDA is expected to grow by 45.6% (Rs2.06bn). EBITDA/t
is expected to improve by 91.6% to Rs762/tonne with
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 20.1 16.2 14.7 538 bps 394 bps overall EBITDA margins expanding 538bps to 20.1%.
Subsequently net profit at Rs875 mn is expected to grow
107.8% yoy.
% Upside -5% EPS (Rs) 2.8 0.6 1.4 107.8% 344.7%
Madras Cement
CMP(Rs) 107 Net Sales (Rs mn) 6,815 5,792 6,311 8.0% 17.7% MCL’s revenues are expected to grow by 8% yoy to
Rs6.8bn. Net realizations are expected to improve by 33.7%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 25 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,790 1,481 1,238 44.6% 20.9% yoy (Rs3990 /ton). However volumes are set to fall
19.1%yoy to 1.7mnt. EBITDA/t is expected to grow 81.4% to
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 26.3 25.6 19.6 665 bps 70 bps Rs1034/tonne with EBIDTA margins expanding 665bps to
26.3%. Consequently net profit for the quarter is expected
Target Price (Rs) 102 PAT (Rs mn) 623 435 293 112.8% 43.4% to be at Rs0.62 bn, a growth of 113% on yoy basis.
% Upside -4% EPS (Rs) 2.6 1.8 1.2 112.8% 43.4%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Shree Cement Shree’s revenues for the quarter are estimated to grow by
13.5% yoy to Rs10.7bn. Cement revenues at Rs9.6bn are
CMP(Rs) 1,951 Net Sales (Rs mn) 10,716 7,796 9,440 13.5% 37.5% expected to grow by 7.7% yoy. Cement Volumes are
expected to grow 10.4% to 2.96 mnt. However realizations
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 68 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,053 1,575 3,569 -14.5% 93.8% at Rs3237/t are expected to decline 4.7%yoy but improve by
13.6% qoq. Revenues from Power segment are expected to
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 28.5 20.2 37.8 -932 bps 828 bps register a growth of 110%yoy at Rs 1.13bn. EBITDA/t at
Rs885/t is expected to decline by 27.2% but improving 59
Target Price (Rs) 1,960 PAT (Rs mn) 1,016 240 377 169.2% 324.2% % qoq. Overall EBITDA margins expected to shrink 932bps
to 28.5%. The net profit for the quarter is expected to grow
% Upside 0% EPS (Rs) 29.2 6.9 10.8 169.2% 324.2%
by 169.2% yoy to Rs1.02bn.
Orient Paper OPIL’s net revenues for Q4FY11 are estimated to grow 12%
yoy to Rs6.14 bn. Cement volumes are expected to decline
CMP(Rs) 57 Net Sales (Rs mn) 6,138 4,384 5,480 12.0% 40.0% by 6.8% yoy. However, realizations are set to improve
23.8%yoy at Rs3244/t. Resultant revenues from cement are
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 11 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,098 741 1,048 4.7% 48.1% expected to grow 15.4% at Rs3.16bn. Revenues from paper
segment are expected to grow 1.8% to Rs0.8bn while
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 16.9 19.1 -124 bps 98 bps
electrical segment is expected to register growth of 11.5%
in revenues at Rs2.16bn. Overall OPM is expected to shrink
by 124bps to 17.9% but improve 98bps qoq. Consequently
% Upside 34% EPS (Rs) 3.1 1.6 2.8 7.3% 90.4% net profit is expected to be at Rs0.58bn, growth of 7.3%yoy.
Construction
Emkay
©
n Infrastructure companies under EMKAY coverage are expected to post a growth of 37.8% sequentially in revenues & 21.3% yoy (ex ITNL)
led by improved execution. Post the extended monsoons season execution is expected to bounce back in Q4FY11E driving healthy
topline growth. Construction revenues are expected to grow 40.7% qoq and 8.7% yoy (ex ITNL).
n The topline growth is also boosted by cement revenues growth of 42.6% for JPA with its cement volumes growing 28% yoy (4.62 mt) &
11% yoy improvement in cement realization
n We expect sequential growth of 12.8% in EBITDA with aggregate margins of 21.2% which is likely to decline 470 bps sequentially as
major traction is visible from the low margins construction segment. Ex ITNL’s performance, EBITDA is expected to grow at 16.7% yoy.
Core construction EBIT is expected to grow by 15.5% qoq and 2.8% yoy (ex ITNL).
n Net profit is expected to witness a growth of 20.3% qoq. Performance(Ex ITNL) is expected to report 11.2% yoy growth in PAT.
n NHAI awarding is set to gain traction in Q1FY12E which is expect to further bolster the order backlog for the existing construction
companies and will provide further opportunities as a developer.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Jaiprakash Associates Jaiprakash Associates (JPA) is expected to report revenue

of Rs38.3bn (+16.3% yoy) driven by a staggering 43%
CMP(Rs) 98 Net Sales (Rs mn) 38,375 28,937 32,995 16.3% 32.6% growth in cement revenues (Volume growth of 28%) and an
11% growth in cement realization. Construction revenues
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 209 EBITDA (Rs mn) 9,005 7,915 8,080 11.5% 13.8% are expected to decline 15% yoy clubbed with a ~3 fold
growth in real estate revenues. With mounting input cost
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 23.5 27.4 24.5 -102 bps -389 bps pressures on cement vertical, we expect EBIDTA of Rs
9.0bn (+11.5% yoy) relatively lower than the top line growth.
Target Price (Rs) 110 PAT (Rs mn) 3,013 2,327 2,457 22.7% 29.5% EBIDTA margins are expected to decline 102bps yoy to
~23.5%. We expect JPA adjusted net profit of Rs
% Upside 12% EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.1 1.2 22.7% 29.5%
3.0bn(22.7% yoy).
IRB Infrastructure IRB is expected to report revenues of Rs 8.9 bn grew 77.4%
aided by 116% growth in Construction & 7% growth in BOT.
CMP(Rs) 228 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,901 6,688 5,017 77.4% 33.1% With larger share of high margin BOT segment acting as
laggard, EBIDTA is expected for the quarter at Rs3.3 bn, a
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 76 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,300 2,936 2,310 42.8% 12.4% growth of 42.8% yoy with EBIDTA margins of 37.1%
registering a fall of 897 bps yoy due to higher contribution
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 37.1 43.9 46.0 -897 bps -682 bps from the low margin construction revenues. Net profit is
expected at Rs1.37 bn for the quarter decline of 3% yoy due
to a tax credit of Rs 393mn in the same quarter last year.
IRB is expected to report a 77% growth at PBT level from
% Upside 23% EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.0 4.3 -3.2% 3.1%
Rs 1.1bn to Rs 1.9 bn
IVRCL IVRCL Q4FY11E PAT is expected at Rs 86.9 mn a 1.9% yoy
growth led by bounce back in the execution activity.
CMP(Rs) 95 Net Sales (Rs mn) 21,730 14,104 18,870 15.2% 54.1% Inordinate delays in achieving financial closure of own BOT
is expected to impact the execution in the transportation
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 25 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,102 1,440 1,950 7.8% 46.0% vertical which comprises ~25% of the order backlog.
Revenues are expected at Rs 21.7bn (+15.2% yoy). EBIDTA
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 9.7 10.2 10.3 -66 bps -54 bps
is expected at Rs 2.1 bn 7.8% yoy & with EBITDA margin of
9.7%. ~40% of the orderbook still remains in the slow
moving trajectory
% Upside 7% EPS (Rs) 3.3 1.9 3.2 1.9% 71.6%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
IL&FS Transportation
CMP(Rs) 247 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,988 2,511 n.a n.a 19.0% ITNL is expected to report revenues of Rs3bn with a growth
of 19% sequentially aided increased contribution from the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 48 EBITDA (Rs mn) 848 1,235 n.a n.a -31.3% Construction segment. With share of high margin fee
-2,078 income expected to decline in Q4FY11E, we expect EBITDA
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 28.4 49.2 n.a n.a
bps for Q4FY11E at Rs848 mn, a decline of 31.3% qoq with
EBIDTA margins of 28.4% registering a fall of 2078 bps qoq.
Target Price (Rs) 275 PAT (Rs mn) 522 628 n.a n.a -16.8% Net profit is expected at Rs 522mn for the quarter
witnessing a decline of 17%.
% Upside 12% EPS (Rs) 2.7 3.2 n.a n.a -16.8%
Consumers
Emkay
©
n Emkay CONSUMER universe is expected to witness robust growth momentum - record 21.9% YoY growth in revenue
to Rs 107 bn. Godrej Consumer is likely to witness highest growth of 118.8% on account of consolidation of acquired
businesses – excluding which our CONSUMER universe is expected to grow at 15.9%. Selective price increases
coupled with healthy volume growth momentum will drive robust revenue growth this quarter. In Emkay universe,
GCPL would record highest revenue growth at 118.8% YoY followed by Jubilant FoodWorks, Marico and Titan at
58.2%, 41.0% and 27.1% YoY respectively.
n EMKAY universe would register improvement in growth momentum – forecast 21.9% YoY growth in revenues to Rs
107 bn driven by continuation of healthy up-tick in volumes coupled with selective price increases and consolidation
of acquired businesses for GCPL. While the Middle East crisis will impact the international operations of APL and
Marico, strong domestic performance will offset this negative impact. Our volume growth assumptions for HUL at 8%,
APL at 14% (domestic business) and same store sales growth for Jubilant FoodWorks at 25%.
n While higher raw material costs continue to keep margins under pressure, we expect selective price hikes with
efficient operating performance would drive EBITDA growth at 26.4% YoY to Rs 15.4 bn and APAT at 30% YoY growth
to Rs 10.3 bn. We have factored 50 bps expansion in EBIDTA margins for EMKAY universe – Jubilant FoodWorks
would report highest expansion at 260 bps, followed by APL at 170 bps and HUL at 50 bps.
n While pricing interventions have been initiated in selective categories like hair oils, detergents and paints, consumer
sector continues to face risks from (1) rising raw material costs (2) intensifying competition and (3) unfavorable base
effects. We continue to remain selective in playing the sector with a preference for absolute market leaders with
higher pricing power.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Hindustan Unilever
CMP(Rs) 276 Net Sales (Rs mn) 48,693 51,277 43,802 11.2% -5.0% HUL is likely to deliver 8% growth in volumes, which along
with selective price increases will help HUL deliver (1)
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 596 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,855 7,250 5,955 15.1% -5.4% 11.2% YoY growth in revenues to Rs48.6 bn (2) 15.1% YoY
growth in EBIDTA to Rs6.9 bn and (3) 29.5% YoY growth in
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 14.1 13.6 48 bps -6 bps APAT to Rs 5.0 bn.
% Upside 0% EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.6 1.8 29.5% -12.9%
Asian Paints
CMP(Rs) 2,551 Net Sales (Rs mn) 20,334 20,996 18,768 8.3% -3.2% Volume growth back in fore (expect 14% volume growth)
combined with benefits from 12.4% price increases taken
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 245 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,711 3,449 3,109 19.4% 7.6% throughout the year. The turmoil in its international
markets is likely to drawdown the consolidated
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 18.3 16.4 16.6 169 bps 182 bps performance, with revenue expected to grow at 8.3% to Rs
20 bn. Higher price increases will result in higher EBITDA
Target Price (Rs) 2,510 PAT (Rs mn) 2,228 2,203 1,917 16.2% 1.1% margins at 18.3% to Rs 3.7 bn and PAT growth of 16.2% to
Rs2.3 bn.
% Upside -2% EPS (Rs) 23.2 23.0 20.0 16.2% 1.1%
Godrej Consumer
CMP(Rs) 390 Net Sales (Rs mn) 11,141 9,858 5,092 118.8% 13.0% Strong performance in Godrej Household Care and
Megasari is likely to offset a modest performance in Soaps
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 126 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,713 1,732 1,075 59.3% -1.1% business and African business. Recent price hike in soaps
likely to aid incremental 4% growth in soaps segment. We
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 15.4 17.6 21.1 -575 bps -220 bps have forecasted (1) revenue growth of 118.8% YoY to Rs
11.1 bn (2) EBIDTA growth of 59.3% YoY to Rs 1.7 bn and
Target Price (Rs) 420 PAT (Rs mn) 1,272 1,188 918 38.7% 7.1% (3) APAT growth of 38.7% YoY to Rs 1.3 bn.
% Upside 8% EPS (Rs) 3.9 3.7 3.0 32.1% 7.1%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Marico
CMP(Rs) 139 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,493 8,177 6,023 41.0% 3.9% While the ME crisis will impact its international
performance, sharp increase in domestic prices –
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 85 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,194 997 849 40.6% 19.8% Parachute at 24% and Saffola at 12% coupled with a low
base Q4FY10 will drive higher revenue growth and help
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 12.2 14.1 -4 bps 187 bps maintaining stable operating margins. Our expectations are
as under (1) revenue growth of 41% YoY to Rs 8.5 bn (2)
Target Price (Rs) 142 PAT (Rs mn) 738 695 583 26.7% 6.2% EBIDTA growth of 40.6% YoY to Rs 1.2 bn and (3) APAT
growth of 26.7% YoY to Rs 738 mn.
% Upside 2% EPS (Rs) 1.2 1.1 1.0 26.7% 6.2%
Jubilant FoodWorks
CMP(Rs) 616 Net Sales (Rs mn) 1,963 1,857 1,241 58.2% 5.7% JFL will continue to post strong growth – especially driven
by Same-Store-Sales growth. We have factored Same-
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 40 EBITDA (Rs mn) 355 323 193 84.3% 10.1% Store-Sales growth of 25% for Q4FY11E. Consequently, we
expect 58.2% YoY growth in revenues to Rs 1.9 bn, EBIDTA
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 18.1 17.4 15.5 256 bps 73 bps growth of 84.3% YoY to Rs 355 mn and APAT growth of
97.8% YoY to Rs 206 mn. We expect EBIDTA margins of
Target Price (Rs) 645 PAT (Rs mn) 206 190 104 97.8% 8.6% 18.1% v/s 15.5% in Q3FY10.
% Upside 5% EPS (Rs) 3.2 2.9 1.6 95.3% 8.6%
Titan Industries
CMP(Rs) 3,995 Net Sales (Rs mn) 16,665 19,548 13,114 27.1% -14.7% Jewellery business would register revenue growth of 30%
YoY and watches at 17.2% YoY. Consequently, Titan is
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 177 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,571 1,952 1,005 56.3% -19.5% expected to register (1) 27.1% YoY growth in revenues to
Rs 16.7 bn, (2) EBITDA to grow 56.3% YoY to Rs 1.6 bn and
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 9.4 10.0 7.7 176 bps -56 bps (3) APAT would grow 59.6% YoY to Rs 818 mn.
Target Price (Rs) 3,876 PAT (Rs mn) 818 1,377 512 59.6% -40.6%
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 18.4 31.0 11.5 59.6% -40.6%
Engineering, Capital Goods & Infrastructure (ECI)
Emkay
©
Our ECI universe is expected to report strong performance in Q4FY11E with net profit growth at 54.8% yoy – this is
largely attributed to (1) BHEL (Provisional results declared – APAT up 47% yoy to Rs28.1 bn) and (2) Punj Lloyd
(reported Rs6.2 bn loss in Q4FY10). Hence, below analysis is excluding BHEL & Punj Lloyd
n After strong 9MFY11 (+23.7%), expect revenue growth of 19.8% yoy to Rs249.8 bn – led by outstanding order backlog.
Strong revenue growth à amongst large caps by Cummins (+44%) and Thermax (+24%) and amongst small caps by
LMW (+43%), TRF (+43%), McNally Bharat (+38%), Indo Tech (+75%) and Bharat Bijlee (+32%)
n Subdued EBITDA growth at 12.3% yoy to Rs33.2 bn and 90 bps yoy decline in EBITDA margins to 13.3% (on high
base in Q4FY10). Drop in EBITDA margins will be led by L&T (-140 bps yoy), Cummins (-70 bps) and Thermax (-10
bps). Blue Star to report margin expansion of 50 bps.
n Led by subdued operational performance, APAT growth expected to be lower at 9.5% yoy to Rs21.1 bn – largely
attributed to lower other income and high interest costs. Amongst large caps expect Cummins India to deliver strong
growth at 35% yoy. While LMW (+39%), Greaves Cotton (+29%) and EMCO (+61%) to have robust performance in mid-
caps. L&T, Voltas, Blue Star, TRF, McNally Bharat and Elecon to report growth ranging between 0-8%.
n Asking rate for order inflows in Q4FY11E stood at Rs466.3 bn (41% of FY11E target order flows or growth of 52% yoy)
– we believe ECI universe would find it difficult to meet expectation owing to fragile business environment and hence
there will be spill-over of order finalization in H1FY12E.
We would closely scrutinize (1) trend in investment spends (2) growth outlook for FY12E (3) pressure on operating
margins and (4) order finalization.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
BHEL Standalone FY11 flash results beats EMKAY estimates by hefty margin
- (1) Gross revenues up 27% to Rs434.5 bn (2) APAT up 40%
CMP(Rs) 2,197 Net Sales (Rs mn) 178,818 88,493 135,591 31.9% 102.1% to Rs60.2 bn (Vs estimate of Rs54.1 bn) –attributed to gains
from operating leverage. Further, historically actual
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,075 EBITDA (Rs mn) 38,471 18,977 24,873 54.7% 102.7% performance exceeds provisional by 0.6% to 3.3%. Secures
orders worth Rs605.1 bn in FY11 – meets guidance
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 21.5 21.4 18.3 317 bps 7 bps (positive surprise) and guides for 10% growth in order
inflows in FY12E. Upgrade FY12E earnings by 7% to Rs138
Target Price (Rs) 2,760 PAT (Rs mn) 28,055 14,032 19,096 46.9% 99.9% - led by 130 bps improvement in EBITDA margins to 18.8%.
Reiterate BUY with revised price target of Rs2760/-
% Upside 26% EPS (Rs) 57.3 28.7 39.0 46.9% 99.9%
Larsen & Toubro Standalone After posting strong performance in Q3FY11, expect
subdued performance in Q4F11E – (1) Net sales growth at
CMP(Rs) 1,667 Net Sales (Rs mn) 160,365 114,131 135,851 18.0% 40.5% 18% yoy. Segment-wise revenue growth at 8.8% yoy in
E&C, 8.5% yoy in E&E, 8.0% in M&IP and 69% yoy in Others
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,015 EBITDA (Rs mn) 21,883 12,379 20,508 6.7% 76.8% (2) 140 bps yoy drop in EBIDTA margins – attributed to
unfavorable revenue mix and high base of Q4FY10 (3) 6.4%
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 13.6 10.8 15.1 -145 bps 280 bps yoy growth in APAT – due to 48% yoy drop in other income.
Expect L&T to miss order inflow guidance by significant
margin (high asking rate at Rs393 bn). Revenue and order
inflow guidance for FY12E and order execution risk will be
% Upside 21% EPS (Rs) 23.4 13.2 22.2 5.5% 76.8%
key monitorable.
Cummins India
CMP(Rs) 696 Net Sales (Rs mn) 11,315 9,925 7,883 43.5% 14.0% After disappointment in Q3FY11, expect Cummins India to
report improved revenue growth at 44% yoy in Q4FY11E –
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 138 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,231 1,796 1,609 38.7% 24.2% led by sustained traction in exports and domestic business.
Expect 70 bps yoy decline in EBITDA margins to partially
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 19.7 18.1 20.4 -69 bps 162 bps offset strong revenue growth – Consequently, EBITDA
growth expected to be lower at 39% yoy to Rs2.2 bn and net
Target Price (Rs) 800 PAT (Rs mn) 1,591 1,389 1,183 34.5% 14.5% profit to grow by 35% yoy to Rs1.6 bn. Management
comment on exports is keenly awaited.
% Upside 15% EPS (Rs) 8.0 7.0 6.0 34.5% 14.5%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Thermax Standalone After posting 63% yoy growth in 9MFY11, expect muted
performance in Q4FY11E with net profit growth at 14% yoy
CMP(Rs) 680 Net Sales (Rs mn) 15,062 12,412 12,193 23.5% 21.4% to Rs1.1 bn – (1) expect moderation in revenue traction at
23% yoy to Rs15.1 bn – led by Environment segment.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 81 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,790 1,464 1,466 22.1% 22.3% Energy to post healthy growth on back of robust order
backlog. (2) Expect stable EBITDA margins at 11.9% yoy
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 11.8 12.0 -14 bps 9 bps (down 10 bps yoy) and (3) lower other income – down 45%
yoy to Rs99 mn. Will track management outlook on pick-up
Target Price (Rs) 943 PAT (Rs mn) 1,128 1,002 992 13.8% 12.6%
in industrial capex, ability to sustain order inflow
% Upside 39% EPS (Rs) 9.5 8.4 8.3 13.8% 12.6% momentum & progress in boilers venture.
Voltas Consolidated After a dismal 9MFY11 (APAT down 4% yoy), expect strong
operational performance in Q4FY11E – we are at higher end
CMP(Rs) 182 Net Sales (Rs mn) 16,176 10,422 14,842 9.0% 55.2% of consensus estimates. Expect 9% yoy revenue growth –
led by pick-up in revenue booking in EMP segment (up 3%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 60 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,784 793 1,499 19.0% 125.0% yoy to Rs9.6 bn) and sustained traction in UCP (up 21%
yoy) and EPS (up 33% yoy) divisions. Expect EBITDA
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 11.0 7.6 10.1 93 bps 342 bps growth at 19% yoy to Rs1.7 bn – led by 90 bps yoy
expansion in operating margins. However, APAT growth to
Target Price (Rs) 250 PAT (Rs mn) 1,235 551 1,231 0.3% 124.1%
be flat at 0.3% yoy – due to higher tax incidence. Keenly
await management outlook on order inflows, international
% Upside 37% EPS (Rs) 3.7 1.7 3.7 0.3% 124.1%
business & Rohini Elect.
Blue Star Expect BLSR to report 6.5% yoy growth in APAT in
Q4FY11E (sharp improvement in performance over 9MFY11
CMP(Rs) 377 Net Sales (Rs mn) 9,898 6,134 8,747 13.2% 61.4% – APAT down 18% yoy) – this is at higher end of consensus
estimates and management guidance. (1) Expect revenue
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 34 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,312 473 1,120 17.2% 177.5% growth at 13% yoy – led by 15% yoy growth in EMP&PAC
and 37% yoy growth in Cooling products (2) 17% yoy
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 13.3 7.7 12.8 45 bps 555 bps growth in EBIDTA – led by 50 bps yoy expansion in EBITDA
margins. But, high finance charges and tax incidence to
partially offset strong operational performance. Traction in
order book and execution of ongoing projects will be
% Upside 21% EPS (Rs) 9.3 2.5 8.7 6.6% 274.2%
tracked closely.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Lakshmi Machine Works
CMP(Rs) 2,443 Net Sales (Rs mn) 5,187 4,909 3,625 43.1% 5.7% Expect continued strong performance in Q4FY11 – (1)
Revenue growth at 43.1% yoy to Rs5.2 bn. (2) EBITDA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 28 EBITDA (Rs mn) 796 756 563 41.4% 5.3% growth at 41.4% yoy to Rs796 mn. EBITDA margin to
remain under pressure due to increasing raw material
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 15.3 15.4 15.5 -18 bps -6 bps prices. PAT is expected to grow 34.5% yoy on low base.
Order book at the end of Q3FY11 stood at Rs 41bn and it
Target Price (Rs) 2,654 PAT (Rs mn) 427 458 307 39.2% -6.8% has received orders worth ~Rs 4bn during Q4FY11E.
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 34.5 37.0 24.8 39.2% -6.8%
Punj Lloyd Consolidated Expect Punj to report improved performance sequentially –

led by pick up in execution of order book (ex-Libya) and
CMP(Rs) 76 Net Sales (Rs mn) 26,597 21,188 17,765 49.7% 25.5% benefits from operating leverage. We expect sequential
revenue growth of 26% to Rs26.6 bn (highest in past 4
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 25 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,695 958 -5,147 76.9% quarters). Led by ramp in pick-up in revenue booking and
benefits from operating leverage, expect EBIDTA margins
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 6.4 4.5 -29.0 3,534 bps 185 bps to improve 190 bps qoq to 6.4%. Led by strong operational
performance, expect net profits of Rs590 mn – highest in
Target Price (Rs) 91 PAT (Rs mn) 590 -622 -6,232 - -
past 6 quarters. Management outlook on timely & profitable
execution of current order book, order inflows will be
% Upside 19% EPS (Rs) 1.8 -1.9 -18.8 - -
watched.
Greaves Cotton Expect Greaves to continue to report strong all round
performance in Q3FY11 – (1) Revenue growth at 20% yoy to
CMP(Rs) 96 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,305 4,192 3,580 20.2% 2.7% Rs4.3 bn led by both segments – 27% yoy growth in
Infrastructure & 19% yoy growth in Engines. (2) Expect
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 23 EBITDA (Rs mn) 703 713 584 20.5% -1.3% stable operating margins at 16.3% (on high base in
Q3FY10) – Expect Infrastructure to report PBIT profit of Rs3
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 16.3 17.0 16.3 3 bps -66 bps mn and (3) 26% yoy growth in APAT to Rs423 mn – aided
by high other income. We will closely watch traction in
Target Price (Rs) 111 PAT (Rs mn) 423 444 336 25.9% -4.6%
Infrastructure Division, ramp-up with Tata Motors and
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.8 1.4 25.9% -4.6% Mahindra & Mahindra.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
McNally Bharat Engineering Standalone Expect MBE to continue to report strong operational
performance in Q4FY11E – on back of Rs43.7 bn opening
CMP(Rs) 224 Net Sales (Rs mn) 7,751 3,788 5,624 37.8% 104.6% order backlog. (1) Expect standalone revenues to grow 38%
yoy to Rs7.7 bn (2) Stable operating margins at 7.3%.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 7 EBITDA (Rs mn) 566 247 408 38.7% 129.3% However, expect net profit growth to be muted at 3% yoy to
Rs222 mn – due to high interest costs. Expect sequential
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 7.3 6.5 7.3 5 bps 79 bps improvement in performance of Sayaji (Revenues up 24%
qoq to Rs0.9 bn, APAT up 26% qoq to Rs92 mn) and CMT,
Target Price (Rs) 292 PAT (Rs mn) 222 113 215 3.3% 95.7% Germany (Revenues up 27% qoq, PBT at Rs1 mn). Outlook
on new BOP orders, EBITDA Margins & FY12E guidance to
% Upside 31% EPS (Rs) 7.1 3.6 6.9 3.3% 95.7%
be tracked.
Elecon Engineering After strong performance in 9MFY11 (APAT up 40% yoy),
expect Elecon to witness muted net profit growth at 8% yoy
CMP(Rs) 77 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,457 3,024 3,324 4.0% 14.3% to Rs203 mn in Q4FY11E – (1) Muted revenue growth at 4%
yoy – led by 12% yoy decline in MHE division (on low
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 7 EBITDA (Rs mn) 527 500 466 13.0% 5.3% opening order backlog). TE division growth expected at 9%
yoy (2) 120 bps yoy expansion in EBITDA margins – led by
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 15.2 16.5 14.0 121 bps -131 bps 160 bps yoy expansion in PBIT margins of TE division.
However, APAT growth to be muted at 8% yoy – due to high
interest costs and tax rates. Management outlook on (1)
Fresh order inflows (2) pressure on EBITDAM will be
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 2.2 1.8 2.0 7.6% 24.5%
awaited.
Voltamp Transformers
CMP(Rs) 608 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,318 1,336 1,801 28.7% 73.4% Same story to be repeated as was the case in last three
quarters - revenue growth of 29% YoY (volumes 16%,
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 285 145 349 -18.4% 97.0% realization 11%) but significant EBITDA margin decline of
709bps. Consequently EBITDA & PAT to decline by 18% &
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 12.3 10.8 19.4 -709 bps 147 bps 28% yoy. Key things to watch - (1) order inflow from
industrial segment, (2) realizations/margins in order inflows
Target Price (Rs) 656 PAT (Rs mn) 191 128 265 -27.7% 49.6% and (3) update on enquiries and order pipeline.
% Upside 8% EPS (Rs) 18.9 12.6 26.1 -27.7% 49.6%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Bharat Bijlee
CMP(Rs) 1,106 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,763 2,072 2,106 31.2% 33.4% Healthy volume growth across segments - transformers,
projects and motors to drive revenue growth of 31% yoy.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 350 244 267 31.1% 43.4% EBITDA margins to remain flat on yoy basis at 12.7%. PAT
is expected to grow 11% YoY to Rs191mn. Key things to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 11.8 12.7 -1 bps 89 bps watch - (1) performance of motors business, (2) order
inflows and realizations trend in transformers, (3) pick up in
Target Price (Rs) 1,350 PAT (Rs mn) 191 142 173 10.9% 34.9% projects business and (4) overall margins.
% Upside 22% EPS (Rs) 33.8 25.1 30.5 10.9% 34.9%
TRF Consolidated Despite 12% yoy decline in revenues in 9MFY11, expect

strong standalone revenue growth at 60% yoy to Rs3.0 bn –
CMP(Rs) 511 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,752 2,484 2,629 42.7% 51.0% led by key orders (Barth - Rs3.2 bn & Mauda -Rs3.0 bn)
reaching revenue booking threshold. Expect EBITDA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 230 264 160 44.0% -12.9% margins to decline by 200 bps yoy to 6.7%. However, APAT
to decline by 37% yoy to Rs71 mn – due to low other
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 6.1 10.6 6.1 6 bps -449 bps income and high interest charge. Expect Auto components
business to report net profit of Rs17 mn (after 4
consecutive quarters of losses). We will watch out for
progress in AAA & Tata DLT and auto component
% Upside 15% EPS (Rs) 7.4 15.6 7.3 2.0% -52.4%
business, outlook on order inflow in FY12E
EMCO
CMP(Rs) 68 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,366 3,037 3,764 16.0% 43.7% Expect revenue gr. of 36%, 148% & -15% in transformers,
meters & projects - resulting in overall revenue gr. of 16%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 4 EBITDA (Rs mn) 350 242 323 8.3% 44.6% YoY. EBITDA margins to decline by 60bps to 8.0%. PAT of
Rs128mn (up 64% yoy on low base). Key things to watch -
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 8.0 8.0 8.6 -57 bps 5 bps (1) execution & profitability in projects, (2) realizations &
margins in transformers order inflows, (3) working capital.
Target Price (Rs) 60 PAT (Rs mn) 128 55 79 61.0% 133.3% and (4) update on Indonesian coal business
% Upside -11% EPS (Rs) 3.5 1.0 1.2 185.0% 264.3%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
TRIL
CMP(Rs) 276 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,418 1,270 2,138 13.1% 90.5% Expect volume growth of 10% and realization increase of
3% to result in revenue growth of 13% YoY. EBITDA
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 4 EBITDA (Rs mn) 287 119 315 -8.7% 141.9% margins decline of 284 bps yoy to result in EBITDA decline
of 8.7% yoy to 287mn. Reported PAT growth to decline by
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 9.3 14.7 -284 bps 252 bps 16% yoy. Key things to watch - (1) order inflows especially
export orders, (2) realizations/margins in order inflow and
Target Price (Rs) 315 PAT (Rs mn) 168 68 200 -15.8% 147.2% (3) order pipeline.
% Upside 14% EPS (Rs) 13.0 5.3 15.4 -15.8% 147.2%
Indo Tech
CMP(Rs) 163 Net Sales (Rs mn) 677 332 386 75.4% 103.8% Assuming volume growth of 61% yoy on low base, we are
expecting Indotech to almost break even in this qtr.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 2 EBITDA (Rs mn) 70 -57 -101 However, lower volume growth might still keep it in red.
Expect revenues to grow by 75% yoy helped by 9% growth
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 10.3 -17.1 -26.3 3,662bps 2,744bps in realizations. Expect marginal negative EBITDA/PAT of
Rs11mn and Rs9mn. Key things to watch - (1) Order Inflows
Target Price (Rs) 245 PAT (Rs mn) 86 -67 -95 - - and realizations and (2) margin outlook.
% Upside 50% EPS (Rs) 8.1 -6.3 -8.9 - -
IT Services
Emkay
©
n Some softness after the strong Sep’10 and Dec’10 show
We expect a 3.8-4.7% QoQ US$ revenue growth for our Tier I IT coverage universe with TCS and HCL Tech leading peers on revenue
growth. Amongst the Tier II companies we expect ~2.6-6.7% sequential US$ revenue growth with Infinite Solutions leading the mid tier
pack. We expect primarily a volume led revenue growth for the sector with marginal cross currency and price gains. While we expect
margins to remain flat sequentially for Infosys, margins could dip by ~30 bps QoQ for TCS on account of normalization of bad debt
provisioning. We expect Wipro to report ~40 bps improvement in margins sequentially driven by higher utilization benefits.
n Infosys could guide for ~18-20% sequential revenue growth, EPS outlook of Rs 134-138
We expect Infosys to guide for 18-20% revenue growth which would essentially entail a 3.5-4.2% CQGR through FY12. Similarly , in terms
of earnings outlook, we expect Infosys to guide for FY12 earnings of Rs 135-138(+13-15% YoY growth) building in ~150 bps decline in
margins conservatively and US$/INR exchange rate of Rs 45.
n Key areas of investor focus
We expect investors to focus on (1) Infosys’s annual revenue guidance apart from Wipro’s June’11 quarter guidance (given that
Infosys’s quarterly revenue guidance has continued to be conservative for past several quarters), (2) wage increments for FY12 (most
companies announce salary hikes in April), (3) hiring outlook (most notably campus recruitments), (4) outlook on margin levers ( supply
side pressures have only got stiffer) and (5) outlook on discretionary spending (especially after strong results from global majors Oracle
and Accenture) and pick up in IT spending in the telecom vertical
n Earnings upgrade need to wait for a while
A more modest March’11 quarter would keep consensus earnings upgrades in check in our view for now (street largely building in a 26-
27% YoY revenue growth for Tier I players) with supply side pressures only getting stiffer. We believe that demand continues to be
strong, a view reinforced by good results by global tech majors recently. We maintain ACCUMULATE on Infosys (TP Rs 3,400) and TCS
(TP Rs 1,275) amongst Tier 1 companies
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Infosys Tech We expect Infy to report rev at $1,645 mn(+3.8% QoQ)

aided by ~30 bps cross currency gains. OPM's to decline
CMP(Rs) 3,247 Net Sales (Rs mn) 74,446 71,060 59,440 25.2% 4.8% marginally by ~10 bps QoQ to 33.2%. Expect Infy to guide
for 18-20% revenue growth for FY12 which would
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,865 EBITDA (Rs mn) 24,691 23,630 20,220 22.1% 4.5% essentially entail a 3.5-4.2% CQGR through FY12. In terms
of earnings outlook, we expect Infosys to guide for FY12
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 33.2 33.3 34.0 -85 bps -9 bps earnings of Rs 135-138(+13-15% YoY growth) building in
~150 bps decline in margins conservatively and US$/INR
Target Price (Rs) 3,400 PAT (Rs mn) 18,570 17,800 15,690 18.4% 4.3% exchange rate of Rs 45. Key thins to monitor- wage
increments for FY12, outlook on discretionary spending
% Upside 5% EPS (Rs) 32.4 31.0 27.4 18.4% 4.3% and pick up in IT spending in the telecom vertical
TCS
CMP(Rs) 1,199 Net Sales (Rs mn) 101,578 96,634 77,365 31.3% 5.1% We expect TCS to report revenues at US$ 2,244 mn (+4.7%
QoQ, ~30 bps benefit from cross currency). Op mgns
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 2,347 EBITDA (Rs mn) 30,350 29,173 23,165 31.0% 4.0% estimated to decline by ~30 bps QoQ to 29.9% on a/c of
normalization of bad debt provisioning. Profits est to be at
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 29.9 30.2 29.9 -6 bps -31 bps Rs. 23.8 bn (+2% QoQ). Key things to monitor- outlook on
margin levers, wage increments in FY12.
% Upside 6% EPS (Rs) 12.1 11.9 9.8 23.3% 2.0%
Wipro
CMP(Rs) 472 Net Sales (Rs mn) 82,168 78,293 69,772 17.8% 4.9% We expect Wipro to report revenues at US$ 1,395 mn(+3.8%
QoQ) aided by ~30 bps cross currency gains , (Guidance 3-
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,158 EBITDA (Rs mn) 15,276 14,357 13,307 14.8% 6.4% 5% QoQ). EBIT Mgns in IT svcs est to expand by ~40 bps
QoQ to 22.6% helped by higher utilization .PAT est. to grow
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 18.6 18.3 19.1 -48 bps 25 bps by 1.4% QoQ to Rs. 13.4 bn. Key investor focus- Progress
on client mining, outlook on client spending, attrition and
Target Price (Rs) 440 PAT (Rs mn) 13,377 13,188 12,091 10.6% 1.4% campus hiring plans.
% Upside -7% EPS (Rs) 5.4 5.4 4.9 10.6% 1.4%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
HCL Tech
CMP(Rs) 497 Net Sales (Rs mn) 40,354 38,625 30,757 31.2% 4.5% HCL Tech est to report 4.7% QoQ growth at US$904 mn,
helped by ~40 bps cross currency gains. EBITDA Mgns
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 341 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,563 6,051 5,844 12.3% 8.5% estimated to expand by ~60 bps QoQ to 16.3% helped by
increase in utilization and SG&A leverage. Profits at Rs. 4.3
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 16.3 15.7 19.0 -274 bps 60 bps bn to grow by +13.5% QoQ helped by lower forex losses &
higher other income. Key investor focus- outlook on client
Target Price (Rs) 540 PAT (Rs mn) 4,227 3,723 3,235 30.6% 13.5% spending, deal
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 6.2 5.5 4.8 29.8% 13.5%
Tech Mahindra
CMP(Rs) 750 Net Sales (Rs mn) 12,474 12,110 11,833 5.4% 3.0% Tech M est to report 2.6% QoQ Growth at US$ 276 Mn,
helped by ~70 bps cross currency gains. EBITDA Margins
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 94 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,580 2,497 2,788 -7.4% 3.3% estimated at 20.7%, marginally up by ~10 bps sequentially.
Core profits estimated at Rs.1.7bn (-19% QoQ) led by lower
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 20.7 20.6 23.6 -287 bps 7 bps other income and lower forex gains. Key things to monitor-
demand outlook within the top 2 clients BT and AT&T, pick
Target Price (Rs) 730 PAT (Rs mn) 1,670 2,054 2,269 -26.4% -18.7% up in capex for telecom players
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 12.7 15.7 17.3 -26.4% -18.7%
Patni
CMP(Rs) 475 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,587 8,200 7,745 10.9% 4.7% Patni estimated to report 3.6% QoQ growth in revenues at
US$ 189.6 mn. Margins are expected to expand by ~90 bps
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 63 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,546 1,405 1,693 -8.7% 10.0% sequentially to 18% helped by SG&A leverage. Profits
estimated at Rs. 1.3 bn (-28% QoQ) driven by one time
Reco NR EBITDA Margin (%) 18.0 17.1 21.9 -386 bps 87 bps provision write back (~Rs. 330 mn) in Dec 10 qtr. Key
things to monitor- revenue outlook & hiring plans
Target Price (Rs) NR PAT (Rs mn) 1,272 1,769 1,497 -15.0% -28.1%
% Upside n.a EPS (Rs) 9.5 13.2 11.4 -16.8% -28.1%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
eClerx
CMP(Rs) 746 Net Sales (Rs mn) 942 872 713 32.2% 8.1% We expect eClerx to report 6% sequential growth in
revenues at US$20.8 mn, aided by ~ 20 bps QoQ cross
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 22 EBITDA (Rs mn) 368 364 261 40.9% 1.0% currency gains. Opmgns expected to decline by ~270 bps
QoQ at 39% mainly led by one off cost reversal of Rs. 17
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 39.0 41.7 36.6 241 bps -273 bps mn in Dec 10 qtr. Profits expected at Rs. 346 mn (-8% QoQ)
driven by lower operating margins and higher tax rate. Key
Target Price (Rs) 740 PAT (Rs mn) 346 360 242 42.9% -3.7% things to monitor- growth within top 5 clients, outlook for
demand in Banking and Capital markets and inorganic
% Upside -1% EPS (Rs) 11.7 12.2 8.2 42.9% -3.7%
growth plans
Hexaware
CMP(Rs) 70 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,198 2,996 2,220 44.0% 6.7% Hexaware expected to report revenues at US$ 70.7 mn
(+6.1% QoQ) (Guidance at US$70 mn) helped by ~30 bps
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 20 EBITDA (Rs mn) 428 345 183 133.9% 24.1% cross currency gains. We build in ~190 bps improvement in
margins to 13.4% driven by operating leverage. Profits
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 13.4 11.5 8.2 514 bps 187 bps expected at Rs 442 mn (+12% QoQ)
% Upside -5% EPS (Rs) 1.5 1.4 0.4 278.2% 11.7%
Persistent
CMP(Rs) 412 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,056 1,949 1,717 19.7 5.5% Persistent expected to report 5.3% sequential increase in
revenues to US$ 45.5 mn. Margins expected to decline by
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 17 EBITDA (Rs mn) 401 428 383 4.6 -6.3% ~240 bps QoQ to 19.5% , impacted by wage increments &
one time reversal of bonuses in Dec 10 qtr. Profits
Reco NR EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5 21.9 22.3 -283 -246bps estimated at Rs. 331 mn (-9% QoQ) , driven by lower
operating margins and lower forex hedging gains. Key
Target Price (Rs) NR PAT (Rs mn) 331 362 397 -16.6 -8.6% things to monitor- demand from the Hi Tech/ISV segment,
margin outlook and attrition trends
% Upside n.a EPS (Rs) 8.3 9.1 9.9 -16.6 -8.6%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
NIIT NIIT expected to report a 11% YoY growth in revenues to

Rs 3267 mn helped by ~9%/8% YoY growth in retail training
CMP(Rs) 56 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,267 3,007 2,950 10.8% 8.7% and corporate training business. Co wide margins expected
to decline by ~150 bps YoY to 14.6% on a/c of lower
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 9 EBITDA (Rs mn) 478 370 475 0.6% 29.1% revenue growth and higher investments Profits expected at
Rs 207 mn(-16% YoY) impacted by lower operating
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 14.6 12.3 16.1 -148 bps 232 bps performance Key things to monitor- performance in the
Individual Learning Solutions /New businesses and outlook
Target Price (Rs) 80 PAT (Rs mn) 207 129 247 -16.0% 60.8% on School Learning Solutions and Corporate training
business.
% Upside 42% EPS (Rs) 1.3 0.8 1.5 -16.0% 60.8%
Mahindra Satyam
CMP(Rs) 76 Net Sales (Rs mn) 13,420 12,793 n.a n.a 4.9% Mahindra Satyam expected to report a 4.6% sequential
growth in revenues to US$ 297 mn helped by ~40 bps cross
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 89 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,149 819 n.a n.a 40.3% currency gains. EBITDA margins estimated to expand by
~220 bps QoQ to 8.6% on a/c of revenue growth leverage.
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 8.6 6.4 n.a n.a 216 bps Profits expected at Rs. 984 mn (-12% QoQ) driven by lower
other income and higher tax rate.
Target Price (Rs) 65 PAT (Rs mn) 984 1,122 n.a n.a -12.3%
% Upside -14% EPS (Rs) 0.8 1.0 n.a n.a -12.3%
Infinite Computers
CMP(Rs) 188 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,378 2,223 1,864 27.6% 7.0% We expect Infinite to report a 6.7% QoQ growth in revenues
to US$52 mn helped by ~10 bps cross currency gains.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 8 EBITDA (Rs mn) 405 370 287 41.1% 9.4% Margins expected to be up by ~40 bps sequentially to 17%
aided by SG&A leverage. Profits expected at Rs 306 mn
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 17.0 16.7 15.4 163 bps 38 bps (+13% QoQ), helped by forex gains (V/s forex losses in
Q3FY11).
% Upside 33% EPS (Rs) 7.0 6.1 5.0 39.0% 13.1%
Metals and Mining
Emkay
©
n Higher realizations and better volumes during Q4FY11 would reflect through increased revenues across the sector.
We expect our Metals and Mining universe to post a revenue growth of 15% YoY and 7% QoQ basis. In terms of
revenue growth on YoY basis, we expect Sterlite Industries (+21%) to be the outperformer followed by Sesa Goa
(+18%) and JSW Steel (17%). Tata Steel and GPIL also are likely to post a YoY revenue growth of ~12%. On QoQ
basis, Sesa Goa (+27%) and GPIL (+17%) are expected to remain top performers
n Despite jump in revenue on YoY basis, the EBITDA for our coverage universe is likely to fall 6% mainly due to margin
pressure in case of Tata Steel (-17%) and JSW Steel (-3%). On QoQ basis despite rise in input costs, significantly
higher realizations enabled the EBITDA of our coverage universe to grow by 20%. Accordingly better EBITDA
performance would be seen in Sesa Goa (+34%), JSW Steel (+26%), GPIL (+20%) and Sterlite (+17%)
n Following the trend in EBITDA, the PAT of our coverage universe is likely to post a drop of 18% YoY primarily due to
Tata Steel (-48%) and JSW Steel (-9%). On QoQ basis, backed by good operational performance, we expect a PAT
growth of 39% for our universe. Major QoQ improvement in PAT is likely for JSW Steel (+61%) and Tata Steel (+53%).
Others viz. Sesa Goa (+33%), Sterlite (+28%) and GPIL (+28%) too are likely to show better performance on QoQ basis
n During the Q4FY11, domestic steel companies raised prices by Rs 5000- 6000/ tonne on the back of good demand and
rise in iron ore and coking coal prices. Non- ferrous metals also saw sharp jump in LME prices due to recovery hope
in developed markets and investment demand
n Among major corporate actions Tata Steel raised Rs 3466 cr through FPO and Rs 1500 cr through perpetual bond,
VAL tied up Rs 16000 cr for its aluminium project and Sesa Goa bought assets of Bellary Steel for Rs 220 cr. We
expect M&As/ JVs/ consolidations to continue in this space
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Tata Steel
CMP(Rs) 638 Net Sales (Rs mn) 309,131 290,895 275,038 12.4% 6.3% Backed by hike in realization and rise in sales volume we
expect Tata Steel to post a revenue growth of 12% and 6%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 612 EBITDA (Rs mn) 39,198 34,246 47,502 -17.5% 14.5% on YoY and QoQ respectively. We estimate the domestic
sales volume to be 1.68 mt and European sales at 3.7 mt for
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 12.7 11.8 17.3 -459 bps 91 bps this quarter. For the domestic operation EBITDA/ tonne is
expected to be US$418, while that for TSE is estimated at
Target Price (Rs) 695 PAT (Rs mn) 13,472 8,807 25,640 -47.5% 53.0% US$25. We don’t expect any significant improvement in the
South Asian operations. Standalone PAT is likely to
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 15.2 9.9 28.9 -47.5% 53.0%
improve by 15% QoQ despite a decline of 20% YoY.
JSW Steel
CMP(Rs) 1,001 Net Sales (Rs mn) 64,225 60,026 54,807 17.2% 7.0% We expect JSW Steel to post better performance on QoQ
basis on the back of better price realizations resulting from
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 223 EBITDA (Rs mn) 12,814 10,164 13,234 -3.2% 26.1% a price hike during the quarter. Sales volume is expected to
be at 1.62 mt for the quarter. This would take the total sales
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 20.0 16.9 24.1 -419 bps 302 bps for the FY11 at 5.94 mt, lower than the target given by the
management. On YoY basis revenue is likely to grow by
Target Price (Rs) 1,060 PAT (Rs mn) 4,691 2,917 5,148 -8.9% 60.8% 17%, however, EBITDA and PAT are likely to remain muted
due to rise in raw material costs. We expect the company to
% Upside 6% EPS (Rs) 21.0 13.1 25.5 -17.6% 60.8%
report EBITDA/ tonne of US$177 for Q4FY11.
Sterlite Industries
CMP(Rs) 175 Net Sales (Rs mn) 87,143 83,325 72,278 20.6% 4.6% Sterlite Industries is likely to post a jump in revenue during
this quarter supported by sharp jump in LME prices for
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 587 EBITDA (Rs mn) 23,258 19,787 21,855 6.4% 17.5% copper, aluminium, zinc and lead. Significant jump in silver
prices also remained supportive for the company. We see a
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 26.7 23.7 30.2 -355 bps 294 bps revenue growth of 21% and 5% on YoY and QoQ basis.
EBITDA margin is likely to improve by 300 bps despite a
Target Price (Rs) 205 PAT (Rs mn) 14,170 11,052 13,581 4.3% 28.2% YoY contraction of 350 bps. Contribution from Hindustan
Zinc is likely to be robust with Q4FY11 PAT for Hindustan
% Upside 17% EPS (Rs) 4.2 3.3 4.0 4.3% 28.2%
zinc estimated at Rs 13.87 bn
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Sesa Goa
CMP(Rs) 316 Net Sales (Rs mn) 28,614 22,501 24,189 18.3% 27.2% Higher volume and realizations are expected to help Sesa
Goa see a revenue growth of 18% and 27% on YoY and QoQ
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 272 EBITDA (Rs mn) 16,475 12,329 15,030 9.6% 33.6% basis. We expect the company to post a sales volume
growth of ~13%t for the quarter under consideration on a
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 57.6 54.8 62.1 -456 bps 278 bps QoQ basis. Blended average realization is likely to grow by
6% on QoQ basis. Rise in freight cost however is partially
Target Price (Rs) 336 PAT (Rs mn) 14,158 10,653 12,129 16.7% 32.9% offset higher profitability. We expect the EBITDA margin of
the company to rise by 280 bps on QoQ.
% Upside 6% EPS (Rs) 16.0 12.0 14.5 10.4% 32.9%
GPIL
CMP(Rs) 187 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,675 2,285 2,385 12.2% 17.1% We expect Godawari Power and Ispat (GPIL) to post better
performance in Q4FY11 continuing the momentum from the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 5 EBITDA (Rs mn) 630 525 467 34.8% 20.1% previous quarter. The company is expected to show good
volume numbers for the quarter with pellet sales is likely to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 23.5 23.0 19.6 395 bps 59 bps be 15% higher QoQ. Contribution of power in the total
revenue is again likely to remain lower this quarter also.
Target Price (Rs) 228 PAT (Rs mn) 272 212 240 13.0% 28.2% However, that would be compensated by the higher
realizations in steel and iron ore businesses. EBITDA
% Upside 22% EPS (Rs) 10.1 7.9 8.9 13.0% 28.2%
margin is expected to improve by 50 bps on QoQ.
Emkay
©
n Companies in our offshore oilfield services space are expected to post an aggregate revenue decline of 17% yoy. We
expect Aban to report a revenue decline of 19% yoy. Garware offshore is expected to post 12% yoy decline in
revenues for the quarter whereas Great offshore is expected to report decline of 7% yoy.
n Aggregate EBIDTA is expected to decline at 19% yoy with EBIDTA margins expanding 182 bps yoy to 58.6%. We
expect EBITDA to decline by 21% for Aban offshore, 13% for Great Offshore and 3% for Garware Offshore.
n Depreciation charges for the quarter are expected to increase 1% yoy whereas interest charges are expected to
decline by 6% yoy. Consequently aggregate net profit for the quarter is expected to decline by 62% as Aban Offshore
and Great Offshore earnings are expected to decline by 69% and 44% yoy respectively.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Aban Offshore
CMP(Rs) 702 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,235 7,780 10,210 -19.3% 5.9% We expect Aban Offshore’s Q4FY2011 consolidated
revenue to decline by 19.3% yoy to Rs8.23 bn. EBIDTA for
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 31 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,220 5,166 6,592 -20.8% 1.0% the quarter at Rs5.22 bn, is expected to post a decline of
20.8% whereas EBITDA margins are expected to contract
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 63.4 66.4 64.6 -118 bps -302 bps 118bps yoy to 63.4%. Pre-exceptional net profit at Rs0.88
bn for the quarter is expected to register decline of 68.6%
Target Price (Rs) 680 PAT (Rs mn) 880 755 2,801 -68.6% 16.6% yoy.
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 20.2 17.4 64.4 -68.6% 16.6%
Great Offshore
CMP(Rs) 290 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,551 1,947 2,739 -6.9%31.0% GOL Q4FY11 standalone net revenues for the quarter is
expected to decline 6.9% yoy to Rs 2.55bn. EBITDA for the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 11 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,181 732 1,357 -13.0% 61.4% quarter is expected to decline by 13% yoy to Rs1.18 bn.
EBIDTA margins are expected to shrink by 325bps to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 46.3 37.6 49.5 -325 bps 871 bps 46.3%. GOL’s net profit for the quarter at Rs409.8 mn is
expected to decline 44%yoy.
% Upside 47% EPS (Rs) 11.0 0.5 19.7 -43.9% 2139.2%
Garware Offshore
CMP(Rs) 141 Net Sales (Rs mn) 502 505 573 -12.4% -0.6% Garware Offshore Services Ltd (GOSL) Q4FY11 revenues
are expected to decline by 12.4% to Rs502 mn. EBIDTA for
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 3 EBITDA (Rs mn) 209 235 215 -2.6% -10.7% the quarter at Rs 209.5mn is expected to decline by 2.6%
yoy with EBIDTA margins expanding by 421 bps yoy to
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 41.7 46.5 37.5 421 bps -473 bps 41.7%. Adjusted PAT at Rs72.5 mn is expected to grow by
11.1% yoy.
% Upside -8% EPS (Rs) 3.0 3.4 2.7 11.1% -9.9%
Oil & Gas
Emkay
©
n Crude Oil price during the Q4FY11 averaged ~US$101 per bbl as compared to ~US$84 per bbl in Q3FY11.
n However, spreads in light and middle distillates remains strong during the quarter, implying higher demand for petro
products. We expect OMC’s GRM in the range of US$5.5-6.6 per bbl higher than Q3FY11.
n During the quarter finance minister has given Rs.210bn as cash compensation to OMC’s for losses incurred on
selling petroleum products at below market prices. Till 9m FY11 OMC’s have received Rs.366bn compensation from
the Government and upstream companies.
n The upstream companies subsidy share expected to remain at 33% of the total under recovery, even though the
absolute level is expected to rise significantly.
n For Q4FY11, we estimate total under recovery at Rs.330bn. At current crude oil price under recovery on Diesel is at
Rs.16 per ltr, Rs.28 per ltr for SKO and Rs.325 per cyl for LPG. However, we have not considered the under recovery
on petrol, due to deregulation of the petrol prices.
n Pressure on the US dollar has been diverting interest of investors towards commodities including crude oil. If US
dollar continues to remain under pressure, the commodities are likely to stay firm including crude oil, hurting the
OMC’s performance.
n We expect OMC’s to report revenue growth of 11.9% in Q4FY11E compared to Q4FY10 led by higher crude oil prices
and hence higher realisation for companies. Higher spreads in the light and middle distillate improves GRM and
profitability of the OMC’s.
Natural Gas Emkay
©
n We expect natural gas transmission volume (GAIL and GSPL) is expected to remain flat at 0.1% to 158mmscmd in
Q4FY11 compared to Q4FY10 but distribution companies (IGL and Gujarat Gas) would report healthy growth of 18%
YoY to 6.4mmscmd in Q4 FY11.
n Petronet LNG is expected to registered healthy volume growth of 29.7%, YoY to 119.1tbtu in Q4FY11.
n Natural Gas universe likely to report revenue and profit growth of 36.8% and 14.7% YoY, respectively, primarily driven
by higher volume growth and higher realisation from GAIL, Petronet LNG and IGL.
n Natural gas universe likely to report EBIDTA growth of 20% YoY. However, higher subsidy burden on GAIL and cost
pressure on IGL drag down the margin from 20.2% to 17.8% YoY.
n The upstream companies’ subsidy share expected to remain at 33% of the total under recovery, even though the
absolute level is expected to rise significantly, due to higher crude oil prices.
n Subsidy burden is the key concern for GAIL’s profitability. Based on the expected under recovery for Q4FY11, we
expect subsidy burden for GAIL is at ~Rs.10bn. This would adversely hamper the sequential growth for the company.
n CGD companies like Gujarat Gas and Indraprastha Gas are expected to report lower margins on YoY and sequential
basis, due to the higher spot LNG prices.
n Overall, strong quarter for CGD and transmission companies.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
IOCL
CMP(Rs) 336 Net Sales (Rs mn) 876,907 808,973 785,770 11.6% 8.4% We expect IOC’s revenue at Rs.876bn, growth of 11.6%
YoY. EBIDTA at Rs.40bn, down by 53% YoY and PAT at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 815 EBITDA (Rs mn) 40,697 32,917 86,457 -52.9% 23.6% Rs.23bn, down by 58% YoY. EBIDTA and PAT have
declined on YoY basis, mainly due to higher cash
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 4.6 4.1 11.0 -636 bps 57 bps compensation received from the government in the Q4FY10
compared to Q4FY11. Also Under recovery was lower in the
Target Price (Rs) 372 PAT (Rs mn) 23,357 16,348 55,605 -58.0% 42.9% FY10 compared to FY11E. The total under recovery for Q4
FY11 is expected at Rs.330bn. We expect Gross Refining
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 9.6 6.7 22.9 -58.0% 42.9%
Margin (GRM) at $6.6 per bbl for Q4FY11.
BPCL
CMP(Rs) 613 Net Sales (Rs mn) 399,798 366,859 375,703 6.4% 9.0% We expect BPCL’s revenue at Rs.399bn, growth of 6.4%
YoY. EBIDTA at Rs.15.3bn, growth of 33.7% YoY and PAT at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 222 EBITDA (Rs mn) 15,328 7,489 11,466 33.7% 104.7% Rs.7.9bn, growth of 13% YoY. The total under recovery for
Q4 FY11 is expected at Rs.330bn. However, spreads in light
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 3.8 2.0 3.1 78 bps 179 bps and middle distillates remains strong during the quarter,
implying higher demand for petro products. We expect
Target Price (Rs) 671 PAT (Rs mn) 7,939 1,875 7,032 12.9% 323.5% Gross Refining Margin (GRM) at $5.4 per bbl for Q4FY11.
% Upside 10% EPS (Rs) 22.0 5.2 19.5 12.9% 323.5%
HPCL
CMP(Rs) 366 Net Sales (Rs mn) 375,715 340,560 315,584 19.1% 10.3% We expect HPCL’s revenue at Rs.375bn, growth of 19%
YoY. EBIDTA at Rs.12.3bn, down by 20% YoY and PAT at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 124 EBITDA (Rs mn) 12,370 7,802 15,510 -20.2% 58.5% Rs.6.3bn, down by 17% YoY. The total under recovery for
Q4 FY11 is expected at Rs.330bn. However, spreads in light
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 3.3 2.3 4.9 -162 bps 100 bps and middle distillates remains strong during the quarter,
implying higher demand for petro products. We expect
Target Price (Rs) 444 PAT (Rs mn) 6,323 2,110 7,538 -16.1% 199.6% Gross Refining Margin (GRM) at $5.5 per bbl for Q4FY11.
% Upside 21% EPS (Rs) 18.7 6.2 22.1 -15.6% 199.6%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
GAIL We expect GAIL’s revenue at Rs.87.2bn, growth of 33%

YoY. EBIDTA at Rs.15.6bn, growth of 15% YoY and PAT at
CMP(Rs) 474 Net Sales (Rs mn) 87,253 83,836 65,690 32.8% 4.1% Rs.9.6bn, growth of 6% YoY. We expect margins would
increase by 204bps to 17.9% on sequential basis. On a
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 601 EBITDA (Rs mn) 15,650 13,331 13,636 14.8% 17.4% sequential basis growth would be marginal at revenue and
PAT level. We expect transmission volume at 121mmscmd
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 17.9 15.9 20.8 -282 bps 204 bps for the current quarter. Subsidy burden is the key concern
for GAIL’s profitability. Based on the expected under
recovery for Q4FY11, we expect subsidy burden for GAIL is
% Upside 19% EPS (Rs) 7.7 7.6 7.2 7.2% 0.9% at ~Rs.10bn. This would adversely hamper the sequential
growth for the company.
Gujarat State Petronet
CMP(Rs) 102 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,804 2,795 2,668 5.1% 0.3% We expect GSPL’s revenue at Rs.2.8bn, growth of 5.1%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 57 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,621 2,623 2,460 6.6% -0.1% Rs.1.3bn, growth of 19.5% YoY. We expect EBIDTA margin
at 93.5%, growth of 131bps on YoY. On a sequential basis
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 93.5 93.8 92.2 131 bps -34 bps growth would be marginal at revenue and Operating level.
We expect transmission volume at 36.6mmscmd for Q4
Target Price (Rs) 135 PAT (Rs mn) 1,289 1,591 1,079 19.5% -19.0% FY11.
% Upside 33% EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.8 1.9 19.4% -19.0%
Indraprastha Gas
CMP(Rs) 318 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,788 4,571 2,898 65.2% 4.8% We expect IGL’s revenue at Rs.4.7bn, growth of 65% YoY.
EBIDTA at Rs.1.2bn, growth of 36% YoY and PAT at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 45 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,293 1,293 952 35.8% 0.0% Rs.0.7bn, growth of 35.8% YoY. We expect EBIDTA margin
at 27%, decline of 584bps on YoY. On a sequential basis
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 27.0 28.3 32.8 -584 bps -129 bps growth would be marginal at revenue and PAT level. We
expect distribution volume at 2.8mmscmd for the current
Target Price (Rs) 382 PAT (Rs mn) 693 672 522 32.6% 3.1% quarter.
% Upside 20% EPS (Rs) 4.9 4.8 3.7 32.6% 3.1%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Gujarat Gas
CMP(Rs) 384 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,935 5,123.4 4,100 20.4% -3.6% We expect GGCL’s revenue at Rs.4.9bn, growth of 20.4%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 49 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,208 1,283 1,026 17.8% 5.8% Rs.0.7bn, growth of 21.1% YoY. We expect EBIDTA margin
at 24.5%, down by 53bps on YoY. On a sequential basis
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 24.5 25.1 25.0 -53 bps -56.5bps growth would be marginal at revenue and operating level.
We expect distribution volume at 3.5mmscmd for the
Target Price (Rs) 481 PAT (Rs mn) 751 820 620 21.1% -8.4% current quarter.
% Upside 25% EPS (Rs) 5.9 6.4 4.8 21.1% -8.4%
Petronet LNG
CMP(Rs) 128 Net Sales (Rs mn) 36,056 36,276 23,855 51.1% -0.6% We expect Petronet LNGL’s revenue at Rs.36bn, growth of
51% YoY. EBIDTA at Rs.3.3bn, growth of 65.2% YoY and
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 96 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,339 3,456 2,022 65.2% -3.4% PAT at Rs.1.7bn, growth of 73.7% YoY. We expect EBIDTA
margin at 9.3%, growth of 79bps on YoY. On a sequential
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 9.3 9.5 8.5 79 bps -27 bps basis performance would be flat at revenue and PAT level.
We expect total volume offtake at 119tbtu for the current
Target Price (Rs) 156 PAT (Rs mn) 1,690 1,708 973 73.7% -1.1% quarter.
% Upside 22% EPS (Rs) 2.3 2.3 1.3 73.7% -1.1%
Paper
Emkay
©
n We expect aggregate revenues to increase by 8% which is driven by 2% volume growth and 4% increase in
realisations. During the quarter, TNPL commissioned its paper plant resulting into 33% increase in capacity however
volume growth is muted due to inventory clearance in Q4FY10
n Paper realisations remain firm at average 44,684 / mt in Q4FY11 (+4% yoy) however various players have taken price
increase of Rs 750- 1000 / mt (2%-3%) during the quarter which should drive average realisations for subsequent
quarters
n Though the industry has witnessed cost pressure on account of higher input prices like pulp, chemicals and
transportation cost. However driven by higher realisations, we expect average EBITDA / mt to increase to Rs 11300 /
mt (Rs 9780 / mt previous year) also driven by higher pulp margins. EBITDA margins to improve by 180 bps to 23.1%
n Rayon Grade Pulp (RGP) prices have increased further to Rs 60,000 / mt (+41% yoy / 16% qoq) and expected to drive
BILT’s profit margins
n In a recent deal, world’s largest paper company has entered into Indian PWP segment through acquisition of AP
paper. Valuations paid by the company at FY2011E EV/EBITDA of 16x are at significant premium to domestic paper
companies trading at average EV / EBITDA of 6x.
n Significant premium paid by global giant to enter into fast growing Indian market (growth of 8-12% as against global
average of 2-3%) has propelled the stock prices in the sectors by 15-20% post this deal. However valuations continue
to remain attractive at current level for our universe at FY2012E EV / EBITDA of 4.7x, P/E of 6.3x and P/BV of 0.9x. We
maintain our BUY recommendation on the sector
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
BILT (Conso) We estimate 5.5% and 5.7% yoy increase in paper sale
volumes and paper realisations respectively to result in
CMP(Rs) 37 Net Sales (Rs mn) 11,800 11,310 10,388 13.6% 4.3% paper segment revenues of Rs 10.2 bn. Sharp jump in RGP
realisations by 41 % yoy to Rs 60,000 / mt is expected to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 24 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,398 2,182 2,041 17.5% 9.9% drive its profitability. However high pulp prices are
expected to keep paper segment margins under pressure
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 20.3 19.3 19.6 68 bps 103 bps while increased realisations should improve margins to
13% vs 12.2% previous year. As a result overall EBITDA
margins are expected to improve by 70 bps yoy to 20.3%.
% Upside 13% EPS (Rs) 0.9 0.7 0.7 36.8% 26.3% We estimate APAT of Rs 606 mn and AEPS of Rs 0.9.
JK Paper
CMP(Rs) 59 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,963 3,138 2,947 0.5% -5.6% We estimate paper sale volumes to decline by 10% yoy to
64,000 MT due to shut down at company’s packaging board
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 5 EBITDA (Rs mn) 637 654 602 5.8% -2.6% plant. Paper realisations are expected to increase by 11.6%
yoy to Rs 46,300 / MT resulting in flat revenue growth at Rs
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 21.5 20.8 20.4 106 bps 66 bps 3 bn. We expect EBITDA margin to improve by 100 bps yoy
to 21.5%. Despite cost pressure, margins to improve on
Target Price (Rs) 84 PAT (Rs mn) 245 251 271 -9.7% -2.6% back of increase in realisations. We estimate APAT to
decline by 10% yoy to Rs 245 mn, with AEPS of Rs 3.1.
% Upside 42% EPS (Rs) 3.1 3.2 3.5 -9.7% -2.6%
TNPL TNPL has commissioned its paper plant during the quarter
however base year volume was higher due to inventory
CMP(Rs) 138 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,440 2,749 3,556 -3.3% 25.1% clearance in Q4FY10. Resulting volume increased by 1%
yoy/ 37% qoq to 85,000 mt along with 8% increase in
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 10 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,125 720 911 23.6% 56.4% realisations. We expect EBITDA to jump by 24% to Rs 1.1
bn. We expect company to also benefit from pulp inventory
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 32.7 26.2 25.6 710 bps 654 bps of 7000 mt However due to higher interest and depreciation,
PBT to decline by 28% yoy to Rs 406 mn. we expect APAT
to decline by 42% to Rs 333 mn, resulting in AEPS of Rs
% Upside 45% EPS (Rs) 4.8 4.1 8.2 -41.9% 16.3% 4.8.
Pharmaceutical
Emkay
©
n We expect our Pharma universe to report a growth of 6% YoY (-2% QoQ) in revenues. Sun Pharma, Cadila and
Aurobindo are expected to grow by 37%, 35% and 16% respectively, while Ranbaxy and Jubilant Life expected to de-
grow by 24% and 12%. Ex-Ranbaxy and Jubilant, revenue of Pharma universe is set to grow by 15% YoY. Pharma
Universe (ex-CRAMS) is likely to grow by 8% YoY, while CRAMS space (excluding Aurobindo) is likely to de-grow by
8% YoY.
n Continued momentum in the domestic market coupled with limited competition product opportunities in the US will
continue to drive growth in the generic space. In the CRAMS space, we expect gradual recovery, with Divi’s to be the
prime beneficiary from the pick-up in outsourcing trend.
n Increasing cost pressures due to expansion of the field force, regulatory filings/ litigation cost, pricing pressures in
US and continual investments in capacities will put the margins under pressure in Q4FY11. EBIDTA is likely to de-
grow by 20% (OPM at 20% in Q4FY11E) driven by 78% and 33% YoY EBITDA decline in Ranbaxy and Jubilant Life.
Ranbaxy will be impacted because of Valtrex exclusivity in Q4FY10 which had higher margin profile. Ex-Ranbaxy and
Jubilant, EBITDA will witness 6% YoY increase (OPM at 22%). OPM for CRAMS companies (excluding Aurobindo) is
likely to contract by 565bps because of lower capacity utilization and higher base in Q4FY10.
n APAT of Pharma universe is likely to de-grow by 26% YoY (3% QoQ) driven by 83% de-growth in Ranbaxy, 66% de-
growth in Dishman and 56% de-growth in Jubilant Life. Ex-Ranbaxy, Dishman and Jubilant, APAT for Q4FY11E will
likely be flat.
n Cadila, Divi’s and Aurobindo are our top picks in the pharma space.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Aurobindo
CMP(Rs) 202 Net Sales (Rs mn) 10,699 11,922 9,248 15.7% -10.3% We expect Aurobindo Pharma to record 16% revenue
growth driven by 27% growth in the US and 28% growth in
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 59 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,050 3,195 1,716 19.5% -35.8% ARV portfolio, The EBIDTA margin is expected to decline
by 61 bps to 19% partially attributable to loss of sales to US
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 19.2 26.8 18.6 61 bps -763 bps market from Unit VI. We expect the APAT to decline by 4%
to Rs1.1bn. USFDA ban will continue to remain an
Target Price (Rs) 265 PAT (Rs mn) 1,118 1,847 1,170 -4.5% -39.5% overhang on the stock until resolution is in sight.
% Upside 31% EPS (Rs) 3.8 6.3 4.0 -4.3% -39.5%
Cadila
CMP(Rs) 828 Net Sales (Rs mn) 11,451 11,668 8,466 35.3% -1.9% We expect Cadila to report a revenue growth of 35% YoY
driven by 50% growth in exports, good ramp-up in Hospira
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 170 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,371 2,562 1,894 25.2% -7.4% (Taxotere supplies can surprise positively) and 29% growth
in domestic formulation business. Growth in export will
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 20.7 22.0 22.4 -166 bps -125 bps largely be driven by regulated markets like US (37%) and
Brazil (78%), albeit on a lower base. We expect operating
Target Price (Rs) 847 PAT (Rs mn) 1,528 1,620 1,311 16.6% -5.7% margins to decline by 166bps to 20.7% and APAT to grow
by 17% to Rs1528mn.
% Upside 2% EPS (Rs) 7.5 7.9 6.4 16.6% -5.7%
Cipla
CMP(Rs) 321 Net Sales (Rs mn) 15,403 15,537 13,747 12.0% -0.9% Cipla is expected to report a revenue growth of 12% driven
by 15% growth in export formulation and 24% growth in
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 258 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,123 3,182 2,780 12.3% -1.8% domestic formulations (on a lower base). We expect
technology fees of Rs160mn in Q4FY11E. Operating
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 20.3 20.5 20.2 5 bps -20 bps margins are likely to remain flat at 20%, due to lower
technology income leading to a flat PAT of Rs2.3bn.
Target Price (Rs) 310 PAT (Rs mn) 2,276 2,327 2,283 -0.3% -2.2%
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 2.8 2.9 2.8 -0.3% -2.2%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Dishman
CMP(Rs) 107 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,400 2,379 2,480 -3.2% 0.9% Dishman is expected to report de-growth of 3% in revenues
led by subdued growth in CRAMS and continued pressure
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 9 EBITDA (Rs mn) 383 315 496 -22.7% 21.6% in the Quats business. EBIDTA margins are expected to
decline by 402bps to 16% on account of lower revenue
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 16.0 13.2 20.0 -402 bps 272 bps contribution from high margin contract research business
at Carbogen. PAT is expected to de-grow by 66% YoY to
Target Price (Rs) 118 PAT (Rs mn) 62 17 181 -65.7% 254.8% Rs62mn on account of poor operating performance.
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 0.8 0.2 2.2 -65.7% 254.8%
Divi's Lab
CMP(Rs) 694 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,097 3,132 3,141 -1.4% -1.1% We expect Divi’s Labs to report a flat revenue growth of
Rs3.1bn in Q4FY11E driven by recovery in CCS business
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 92 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,200 1,205 1,513 -20.7% -0.4% and improved take-off in the Generics portfolio. We expect
operating margins to contract by 942bps to 38.8% due to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 38.8 38.5 48.2 -942 bps 29 bps base effect and change in product mix leading to 25% YoY
decline in APAT to Rs969mn.
Target Price (Rs) 833 PAT (Rs mn) 969 984 1,294 -25.1% -1.5%
% Upside 20% EPS (Rs) 7.3 7.4 9.7 -25.1% -1.5%
Dr. Reddy
CMP(Rs) 1,634 Net Sales (Rs mn) 18,974 18,985 16,424 15.5% -0.1% DRL is expected to register 15.5% growth in revenues on
account of presence of one-offs such as Accolate and
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 276 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,131 3,043 2,554 22.6% 2.9% limited competition Lansoprazole and Allegra. EBIDTA
margin is expected to increase by 95bps to 16.5% (on
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 16.5 16.0 15.6 95 bps 47 bps account of contribution from one-offs). Betapharm is
expected to report 17% YoY decline in revenues which will
Target Price (Rs) 1,750 PAT (Rs mn) 2,627 2,774 2,046 28.4% -5.3% have a negative impact on margins. APAT is expected to
increase by 28% to Rs2.6bn, clocking an EPS of Rs15.6.
% Upside 7% EPS (Rs) 15.6 16.5 12.1 28.4% -5.3%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Glenmark
CMP(Rs) 304 Net Sales (Rs mn) 7,981 7,585 7,125 12.0% 5.2% Glenmark Pharma is expected to report 12% growth in
recurring revenue driven by 9% growth in GGL and 15%
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 82 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,836 1,741 1,817 1.0% 5.4% growth in GPL. Loss of sales from Tarka (launched in
Q1FY11) in the US will hurt the US growth this quarter.
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 23.0 23.0 25.5 -250 bps 5 bps However, limited competition and new launches in the OC
and the dermatology space will partially offset this loss.
Target Price (Rs) 371 PAT (Rs mn) 1,091 950 1,068 2.1% 14.8% Operating margins are likely to remain at healthy levels of
23%. APAT at Rs1.1bn is expected to grow marginally by
% Upside 22% EPS (Rs) 4.0 3.5 4.0 2.1% 14.8%
2% YoY.
GlaxoSmithkline
CMP(Rs) 2,152 Net Sales (Rs mn) 5,845 5,007 5,465 6.9% 16.7% GSK is expected to report a growth of 7% in revenues
driven by the vaccine business and increased contribution
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 182 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,044 1,574 2,056 -0.6% 29.9% of key focus products. The EBIDTA margin is expected to
contract by 264bps to 35% due to higher interest income in
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 35.0 31.4 37.6 -264 bps 354 bps Q1CY10. We expect APAT to de-grow by 5% to Rs1.5bn.
% Upside 0% EPS (Rs) 18.0 14.4 19.0 -5.4% 24.6%
IPCA
CMP(Rs) 309 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,530 4,664 3,678 23.2% -2.9% IPCA is expected to report a growth of 23% in the revenue
driven by sustained growth in domestic formulation
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 39 EBITDA (Rs mn) 849 910 686 23.7% -6.7% business and 25% growth in export formulations (led by
aggressive dossier filings, higher contribution from
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 18.7 19.5 18.7 8 bps -78 bps institutional sales and entry into new markets). EBIDTA
margins are likely to remain flat at 18.7% on account of
Target Price (Rs) 336 PAT (Rs mn) 495 553 358 38.3% -10.5% cost associated with increase in field force strength. We
expect PAT of Rs495mn clocking an EPS of Rs4.
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 4.0 4.4 2.9 38.8% -10.5%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Jubilant Life
CMP(Rs) 183 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,715 8,665 9,903 -12.0% 0.6% Jubilant is expected to report de-growth in revenues on
account of presence of one time CMO contract in Q4FY10.
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 29 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,459 1,297 2,191 -33.4% 12.5% EBIDTA margins are expected to contract by 538bps to 17%
on the back of lower contribution of high margin CRAMS
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 16.7 15.0 22.1 -538 bps 177 bps business in this quarter and presence of high margin
products in Q4FY10. We expect 56% decline in APAT to
Target Price (Rs) 215 PAT (Rs mn) 591 451 1,358 -56.5% 31.1% Rs591mn.
% Upside 18% EPS (Rs) 3.7 2.8 8.6 -56.5% 31.1%
Lupin
CMP(Rs) 408 Net Sales (Rs mn) 14,297 15,102 13,282 7.6% -5.3% We expect Lupin to report revenue growth of 8% driven by
domestic and export formulation business. We expect
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 182 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,931 2,973 2,924 0.2% -1.4% operating margins to decline by 152bps to 20.5% led by
higher staff and SGA cost coupled with lower gross
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 20.5 19.7 22.0 -152 bps 82 bps margins. APAT is expected to remain flat at Rs2.2bn.
% Upside 22% EPS (Rs) 4.9 5.0 5.0 -0.8% -2.3%
Panacea Biotec
CMP(Rs) 186 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,562 2,928 3,287 -22.0%-12.5% Panacea Biotec is expected to report 22% de-growth in
revenues due to one-time higher sales from the ToPV
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 12 EBITDA (Rs mn) 564 823 504 11.9% -31.5% Vaccine in Q4FY10. However, EBIDTA margin are expected
to increase by 667bps to 22% due to favorable product mix.
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 22.0 28.1 15.3 667 bps -610 bps We expect the company to report a profit of Rs169mn
clocking an EPS of Rs2.8 in Q4FY11E.
Target Price (Rs) 221 PAT (Rs mn) 169 412 185 -8.6% -59.0%
% Upside 19% EPS (Rs) 2.8 6.7 2.8 -0.1% -59.0%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Ranbaxy Labs
CMP(Rs) 463 Net Sales (Rs mn) 21,084 21,084 27,671 -23.8% 0.0% Ranbaxy is likely to report 24% de-growth in revenues to
Rs21bn due to presence of one-time exclusivity on Valtrex
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 195 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,302 2,302 10,517 -78.1% 0.0% in Q1CY10. Accordingly, EBITDA margins are expected to
-2,709 contract sharply to 11%. Higher price erosion in Aricept
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 10.9 10.9 38.0 0 bps launch will continue this quarter. We expect APAT of
bps
Rs1.2bn. The EPS for the quarter is estimated at Rs2.9.
% Upside -14% EPS (Rs) 2.9 2.7 16.7 -82.7% 8.7%
Sun Pharma
CMP(Rs) 442 Net Sales (Rs mn) 15,220 16,011 11,092 37.2% -4.9% Sun Pharma is likely to report strong revenue growth, led
by 22% growth in domestic formulations and Taro
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 455 EBITDA (Rs mn) 4,158 4,405 4,185 -0.7% -5.6% consolidation. We expect Taro to contribute Rs4.3bn to the
-1,041 top-line (29% of Q4FY11E total sales). Operating margins
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 27.3 27.5 37.7 -20 bps are likely to contract by 1000bps to 27% on account of Taro
bps
consolidation. APAT is expected to de-grow to Rs3.7bn.
% Upside 4% EPS (Rs) 3.6 3.4 4.5 -21.5% 5.2%
Torrent Pharma
CMP(Rs) 569 Net Sales (Rs mn) 5,439 5,775 4,753 14.4% -5.8% Torrent Pharma is expected to report revenue growth of
14%. Domestic branded formulation and the contract
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 48 EBITDA (Rs mn) 952 1,150 969 -1.8% -17.2% manufacturing business are expected to show good
traction. The EBIDTA margin is however expected to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 17.5 19.9 20.4 -288 bps -241 bps contract by 288bps to 17.5% on account of field force
expansion in India and commencement of operations in
Target Price (Rs) 650 PAT (Rs mn) 622 769 591 5.2% -19.1% Mexico. The company’s PAT is expected to grow by 5% to
Rs622mn.
% Upside 14% EPS (Rs) 7.4 9.1 7.0 5.2% -19.1%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Unichem Labs
CMP(Rs) 204 Net Sales (Rs mn) 1,986 1,971 1,739 14.2% 0.8% We expect Unichem to report a growth of 14% to Rs2bn on
account of slower traction in the domestic formulation
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 18 EBITDA (Rs mn) 415 394 415 0.0% 5.4% business (expected to grow by 12%). The EBIDTA margin is
expected to decline by 298bps due to adverse product mix
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 20.9 20.0 23.9 -298 bps 92 bps and higher SGA cost. We expect the company to report a
profit of Rs276mn (decline of 19% YoY) clocking an EPS of
Target Price (Rs) 243 PAT (Rs mn) 276 256 339 -18.6% 7.7% Rs3.1 in Q4FY11E.
% Upside 19% EPS (Rs) 3.1 2.8 3.8 -18.6% 7.7%
Power
Emkay
©
n Expect our utilities universe to report 14.5% yoy revenue growth led by commissioning of capacities. EBITDA to grow
by 26% yoy led by operating leverage. However, PAT to decline by 5.0% yoy led by PAT decline in NTPC (change in
grossing up) and JPVL (higher interest due to securitization). PAT ex-NTPC & JPVL to increase by 15.5% yoy.
n 15,795MW added during FY11. Expect further jump in capacity additions starting FY12E with addition of 22,706MW.
n Even after factoring in best case demand estimates (9.6% growth) including latent demand, supply is likely to outpace
demand by end FY13E.
n Merchant prices (day ahead on exchange) were expected to rebound significantly in Q3/Q411 (stood at Rs2.3/unit &
Rs3.6/unit) but that hasn’t been the case till now. Its just 2.5 months window before the monsoon impact again kicks
in and result in lower merchant prices. Expect lower prices in exchanges to escalate to bilateral trades and see
significant downside risk to consensus (also ours) merchant tariff of Rs4/unit and Rs3.5/unit in FY12E and long term
respectively. Our estimate for sustainable merchant rates stands at Rs2.7/unit.
n Unsustainable SEB losses (Rs740bn – FY10) to trigger panic situation starting FY12E and SEBs to resort to price
caps, power cuts/demand management, payment delays etc.
n IPP valuations still factors in a (1) long term merchant rate of Rs3.5/unit, (2) coal supply at linkage rates, (3) high PLFs
of 85%+ and (4) significant latent demand. We reiterate negative view on private power utilities and prefer regulated
utilities. Our top picks are power grid (not covered) and NTPC (lower risks, reasonable valuations and improving
execution).
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
NTPC Expect decline of 1.1% YoY in gross generation to

57,863mn units. Provisional numbers indicate adj. revenue
CMP(Rs) 186 Net Sales (Rs mn) 144,880 128,793 132,229 9.6% 12.5% growth of 10% YoY – could be driven by higher fuel cost
pass through and/or previous year sales/recovery. Also
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,536 EBITDA (Rs mn) 44,508 32,212 35,352 25.9% 38.2% based on provisional numbers, we expect grossing up at
MAT rate. Expect PAT of Rs25.0bn, up 24% yoy on
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 30.7 25.0 26.7 399 bps 571 bps reported basis but down 8% yoy on adjusted basis. Key
things to watch - (1) grossing up in FY11E and guidance for
Target Price (Rs) 204 PAT (Rs mn) 25,050 21,586 27,305 -8.3% 16.0% FY12E, (2) adjustments in the qtr – previous year sales, tax
recovery, other extra ordinaries not pass through & (3) UI
% Upside 10% EPS (Rs) 3.0 2.6 3.3 -8.3% 16.0%
income.
GIPCL Expect revenues, EBITDA to grow 32%/72% yoy led by full
impact of Surat II (though at low PLF of 60%) in the qtr.
CMP(Rs) 93 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,303 3,078 2,502 32.0% 7.3% Higher EBITDA growth is driven by Surat II’s interest and
depreciation recovery in tariffs. Due to low PLF at Surat II’s
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 14 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,001 819 581 72.3% 22.3% and its interest and depreciation charge below EBITDA,
PAT is expected to grow only by 8% YoY to Rs390mn
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 30.3 26.6 23.2 709 bps 371 bps (includes Rs80mn of income tax refund). Key things to
watch - PAF of new plant, status on GERC petition and
status on 600MW ordering.
% Upside 9% EPS (Rs) 2.6 1.6 2.4 8.1% 60.2%
Adani Power Generation volumes to grow by 333% driven by

commercialization of 1,650MW of Mundra I, II & III during
CMP(Rs) 120 Net Sales (Rs mn) 8,587 5,026 2,013 326.7% 70.9% Oct 2009 till March 2011. Similarly expect revenue growth
of 327% yoy to Rs8.6bn. EBITDA margins to improve
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 261 EBITDA (Rs mn) 5,504 2,730 1,174 368.9% 101.6% 578bps due to expected stabilization of these units and
consequently better operating matrix. Thus, EBITDA to
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 64.1 54.3 58.3 578 bps 978 bps grow by 369% yoy. Higher dep. and int. cost to lead to
lower PAT growth of 207% yoy to Rs3.0bn. Key things to
Target Price (Rs) 113 PAT (Rs mn) 3,019 1,091 983 207.1% 176.9%
watch (1) operating matrix, (2) coal supply from Indonesia
% Upside -6% EPS (Rs) 1.4 0.5 0.5 207.1% 176.9% and landed cost, (3) status of projects under construction.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Lanco Infratech Expect conso. Revenues/EBITDA to decline by 4%/2% yoy

mainly on account of (1) lower merchant tariffs (Rs4.3/unit
CMP(Rs) 44 Net Sales (Rs mn) 23,162 15,615 24,161 -4.1% 48.3% vs Rs5.4/unit yoy), (2) lower generation at Kondapalli,
Amarkantak and Aban, (3) higher elimination in
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 107 EBITDA (Rs mn) 6,502 4,800 6,655 -2.3% 35.5% construction and (4) under recovery in Udupi due to lower
approved capital cost. Change in depreciation policy and
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 28.1 30.7 27.5 53 bps -267 bps improvement in construction margins to drive PAT growth
of 109% yoy to Rs2.4bn. Key things to watch – merchant
realizations and guidance for Q1FY12E, construction
% Upside 26% EPS (Rs) 1.0 0.5 0.5 108.5% 113.9% elimination and profit booking at Singapore subsidiary
level, status of projects and concrete plan on griffin.
KSK Energy Expect revenues to grow by 81% yoy to Rs 3.3bn led by a
strong volume growth of 321% yoy (due to commissioning
CMP(Rs) 107 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,257 2,744 1,804 80.5% 18.7% and improved PLF of Wardha Warora plant). Higher
depreciation and interest cost (due to lower utilizations at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 40 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,082 1,265 1,255 65.8% 64.6% Wardha Warora) to lead to PAT decline of 36% yoy to
Rs606mn. Numbers could surprise on the positive side if (1)
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 63.9 46.1 69.6 -567 bps 1,781 bps realizations for Wardha Warora is higher than Rs4/unit (our
assumption) and (2) KSK reports significant project
development fees (our assumption - Nil). We have built in
% Upside 2% EPS (Rs) 1.6 0.2 2.5 -36.1% 607.9% improved PLF of 70% in Q411 (33% in Q311. Key things to
watch – coal supply for Wardha Warora, PPA with reliance
infra and supply status and status of projects.
JSW Energy Led by commissioning of 735 MW and higher PLF of 88%

(83% in Q410), the volumes are expected to grow by 84%
CMP(Rs) 85 Net Sales (Rs mn) 12,793 10,611 7,845 63.1% 20.6% yoy. Led by fall in realizations (Rs4.0/unit vs Rs4.6/unit),
revenues to grow by 63% yoy to Rs12.8bn. EBITDA margins
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 139 EBITDA (Rs mn) 3,926 3,384 3,307 18.7% 16.0% to decline by 1150bps on account of higher fuel cost.
-1,146 Further, led by higher depreciation and interest, expect PAT
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 30.7 31.9 42.2 -120 bps to decline by 49% yoy to Rs1.4bn. Key things to watch – (1)
bps
merchant realizations, (2) coal cost, (3) status of projects
and (4) status on CIC acquisition.
% Upside -8% EPS (Rs) 0.9 0.9 1.7 -48.6% -8.2%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Jaiprakash Power
CMP(Rs) 49 Net Sales (Rs mn) 1,292 1,292 3,880 -66.7% 0.0% Led by significantly higher base of revenues, lower
generation in Q4 and higher interest due to securitization,
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 103 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,042 1,042 3,380 -69.2% 0.0% PAT is expected to decline by 70% yoy to Rs380mn. Key
things to watch – (1) Karcham commissioning guidance, (2)
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 80.7 80.7 87.1 -644 bps 0 bps status on fund raising, (3) status of amalgamation of
Karcham and Bina, (4) status of under construction
Target Price (Rs) 49 PAT (Rs mn) 380 228 1,289 -70.6% 66.7% projects and (5) revenue from carbon credits.
% Upside 0% EPS (Rs) 0.2 0.1 0.6 -70.6% 66.7%
Nava Bharat
CMP(Rs) 279 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,100 2,466 3,154 -1.7% 25.7% Lower merchant realizations of Rs4.5/unit in Q411 vs
Rs5.5/unit in Q410 to result in significant decline in PAT to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 21 EBITDA (Rs mn) 810 558 1,247 -35.0% 45.2% the tune of 44% to Rs614mn. Power volumes to remain at
-1,341 the same level. Nothing significant expected from ferro
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 26.1 22.6 39.5 350 bps alloys or sugar business – to remain muted. Key things to
bps
look – (1) merchant realizations, (2) status of its 64MW
Target Price (Rs) 328 PAT (Rs mn) 614 483 1,100 -44.2% 27.1% power plant, (3) Status of other projects under execution
including Zambian venture and (4) status of Indonesian
% Upside 18% EPS (Rs) 7.1 5.6 14.4 -51.0% 27.1% coal mine.
Reliance Power Generation of 1.1bn units mainly on account of Rosa’s

higher PLF of 87% in Q4. Expect revenues of Rs3bn, other
CMP(Rs) 135 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,048 2,512 0 n.a 21.3% income of Rs1.3bn to drive PAT of Rs1.1bn, up 14% yoy.
However, more than the numbers, the status of projects
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 380 EBITDA (Rs mn) 749 617 -538 n.a 21.3% under execution is important for stock performance. Key
things to watch (1) Rosa coal supply status from coal India,
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 24.6 24.6 n.a n.a 0 bps (2) Rosa billing with respect to imported coal, (3) PAF
considered while calculating tariffs for Rosa, (4) Status of
Target Price (Rs) 157 PAT (Rs mn) 1,054 787 924 14.1% 34.0%
Sasan and Chitrangi, (5) Status of gas supply for Samalkot
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 0.4 0.3 0.3 14.1% 34.0% II, (6) status of captive coal mines.
Print Media Sector Emkay
©
n Ad revenue growth is expected to remain strong, post festive season as well.
n We expect our coverage universe to report ad revenue of Rs 7.6bn, growing 18.7% YoY.
n Regional companies (DB Corp, Jagran Prakshan, Hindustan) are expected to post growth of 20.0% YoY to Rs 5.1 bn
while, their national counterpart (HT Media) would grow at 16.0% YoY to Rs 2.6 bn.
n Print media players are increasing the circulation to have an edge over competition. Jagran has increased circulation
across the markets, while Hindustan is aggressively expanding its presence in U.P. On the back of this, we expect
our coverage universe circulation revenue to grow by 3.9% YoY to Rs 1.5bn, led by 6% growth expected from Jagran.
n Coverage universe EBITDA margin is expected at 22% v/s 25.7% Q4FY10, declining due to higher operating cost.
However, PAT is expected to grow 19.3% YoY, driven by lower interest cost coupled with higher other income.
n The newsprint prices have remained stable from last couple of quarters. Price stood at $670/tonne in Q4FY11 v/s
$665/tonne in Q3FY11.
n We maintain our bullish stance on the regional print media space; nevertheless, with the increasing ad spend by
corporates, national players are also expected to post healthy returns.
n With the expansion by print players into Tier II and Tier III cities, we expect the growth in ad market to maintain its
momentum going forward. Stabilization in newsprint prices would also drive the EBITDA going forward
n We maintain our BUY rating on Jagran and HT Media and HOLD rating on DB Corp. Jagran remains our top pick in the
sector
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
DB Corp.
CMP(Rs) 256 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,015 3,482 2,572 17.3% -13.4% DB Corp is expected register revenue growth of 17.3% YoY,
driven by the healthy print ad revenue growth of 20.0%. On
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 46 EBITDA (Rs mn) 782 1,148 696 12.4% -31.9% the back of strong inventory utilization, Radio sales are
expected to register growth of 23.6% YoY. EBITDA margins
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 25.9 33.0 27.0 -113 bps -705 bps are likely to fall due to 19.1% YoY increase in the operating
expenditure. PAT margins are expected to improve 440 bps
Target Price (Rs) 284 PAT (Rs mn) 550 659 367 49.8% -16.6% on the back of lower interest outgo and higher revenue
realization.
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 3.0 3.6 2.0 49.8% -16.6%
HT Media
CMP(Rs) 158 Net Sales (Rs mn) 4,648 4,651 3,851 20.7% -0.1% HT Media’s English segment is expected to report strong ad
revenue growth. We estimate print ad revenues for HT
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 37 EBITDA (Rs mn) 882 883 929 -5.1% -0.2% media to grow by 19.2% YoY on the back of English ad
growth of 16% and Hindi ad growth of 28.0%. Radio is
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 19.0 19.0 24.1 -515 bps -2 bps expected to grow 30% YoY. EBITDA is expected to decline
by 5.1% YoY due to higher newsprint prices coupled with
Target Price (Rs) 175 PAT (Rs mn) 471 478 495 -4.9% -1.5% losses from other businesses.
% Upside 11% EPS (Rs) 2.0 2.0 2.1 -4.9% -1.5%
Jagran Prakashan
CMP(Rs) 125 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,683 2,860 2,363 13.5% -6.2% Jagran Prakshan is expected to post ad revenue growth of
16.0% YoY to Rs 1.8bn. Circulation revenue is expected to
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 39 EBITDA (Rs mn) 745 897 633 17.8% -16.9% remain flat at Rs 570 mn, growing 6.3% YoY. On the back of
strong revenue growth coupled with better performance
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 27.8 31.4 26.8 102 bps -359 bps from other business segments (OOH, event and Mobile
solution), EBITDA margin is expected to improve by 98 bps
Target Price (Rs) 155 PAT (Rs mn) 433 526 364 19.1% -17.7% YoY.
% Upside 24% EPS (Rs) 1.4 1.7 1.2 19.1% -17.7%
Telecom Industry
Emkay
©
n Revenue growth momentum to continue in Q4FY11. We expect our Telecom universe to register QoQ revenue growth
in the range of 3-5% in Q4FY11E, led by stabilization of price war coupled with strong subscriber net adds.
n Due to launch of MNP during Q4FY11E, we expect APRU and ARPM decline to be in a range of 3% and 1% for Bharti
and Idea, respectively. While the decline is expected to be higher for Rcom.
n Nevertheless, the traffic on network is expected to grow in the range of 4% and 7% QoQ for Bharti and Idea,
respectively. It is expected to be at 1.2% for Rcom as the company is reducing free minutes on the network.
n Led by continued healthy subscriber addition, we expect mobility revenue for Bharti, Idea and Rcom to grow by 3.5%,
5.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
n Despite of revenue growth, EBITDA margin of our coverage universe is expected to remain flat at 31.8% QoQ
(considering Bharti EBITDA for Q3FY11 excluding one time re-branding cost) due to higher marketing expenses
pertaining to aggressive campaigns for MNP and 3G launch.
n MNP was launched on pan India basis on 20th January, 2011. Latest data released by TRAI shows just 38lacs
subscribers (i.e. ~0.5% of total subscriber base) opted for the service.
n All the players have launched 3G services, Idea was the last one to roll out at the end of March, 2011. As per the
recent data, the pricing offered for 3G services indicates absence of intense price war in the industry. As per the
media reports, Bharti has added 2 million subscribers on its 3G network till now.
n Relaxation on the stringent norms in new telecom policy (expected any time in April, 2011)) could be a positive trigger
for the industry.
n We rate BUY on Tulip Telecom, HOLD on Bharti, reduce on RCOM and SELL on Idea Cellular. Bharti Airtel remains
our top pick in the sector.
Name Mar’11E Dec’10 Mar’10
% Chg
YoY
% Chg
QoQ
Comments Emkay
©
Bharti Airtel
CMP(Rs) 357 Net Sales (Rs mn) 162,914 157,560 100,557 62.0% 3.4% Bharti Airtel is expected to report 3.4% revenue growth
QoQ, led by 3.5% growth in mobility revenues. ARPU is
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 1,354 EBITDA (Rs mn) 55,368 49,816 38,220 44.9% 11.1% expected to fall to Rs 192. Traffic on network is expected to
grow by 3.9% to 206.8bn minutes. EBITDA margins are
Reco Hold EBITDA Margin (%) 34.0 31.6 38.0 -402 bps 237 bps likely to come back to 34% levels. The watch out factor for
Bharti would remain the performance of African operations
Target Price (Rs) 345 PAT (Rs mn) 16,027 13,033 20,551 -22.0% 23.0% and initial response from MNP and 3G launch
% Upside -3% EPS (Rs) 4.2 3.4 5.4 -22.0% 23.0%
Idea Cellular
CMP(Rs) 66 Net Sales (Rs mn) 41,746 39,556 33,478 24.7% 5.5% The Company is expected to report mobility revenue
growth of 5.5% QoQ. ARPU and MoU is expected to be at
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 219 EBITDA (Rs mn) 9,886 9,483 9,236 7.0% 4.3% Rs 163 and 391, respectively. EBITDA margin at 23.7% is
expected to decline 30bps due to higher marketing &
Reco Sell EBITDA Margin (%) 23.7 24.0 27.6 -390 bps -29 bps selling expenditure towards MNP campaigns. PAT is
expected to be at Rs 2.5bn due to interest capitalization on
Target Price (Rs) 60 PAT (Rs mn) 2,473 2,431 2,666 -7.3% 1.7% 3G debt
% Upside -9% EPS (Rs) 0.7 0.7 0.8 -7.3% 1.7%
RCom
CMP(Rs) 111 Net Sales (Rs mn) 50,458 48,650 49,915 1.1% 3.7% Due to restructuring of the wireless business, we expect
the mobility revenue to remain subdued. We expect the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 229 EBITDA (Rs mn) 15,850 15,289 15,007 5.6% 3.7% mobility revenue to grow 1.7% QoQ. ARPU for Q4FY11E
stands at Rs 106.4. EBITDA margin is likely to remain flat
Reco Reduce EBITDA Margin (%) 31.4 31.4 30.1 135 bps -1 bps qoq, due to higher ad spends towards launch of 3G
services. Strategic stake sale or the deal pertaining infratel
Target Price (Rs) 85 PAT (Rs mn) 3,207 4,803 12,193 -73.7% -33.2% business remains key triggers for Rcom.
% Upside -23% EPS (Rs) 1.6 2.3 5.9 -73.7% -33.2%
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Tulip Telecom
CMP(Rs) 161 Net Sales (Rs mn) 6,759 6,022 5,307 27.4% 12.2% Tulip is expected to post YoY revenue growth of 27.4%, on
the back of higher revenue realization from fiber optic
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 23 EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,966 1,716 1,545 27.2% 14.6% segment. EBITDA margin expected to be at 29.1%,
Revenue realization from the fiber business and further
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 29.1 28.5 29.1 -3 bps 59 bps development in the data centre segment to remain key
factors to watch out.
% Upside 36% EPS (Rs) 5.9 5.0 4.8 22.6% 19.2%
Others
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Arshiya International
CMP(Rs) 226 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2478 2125 1689 46.7 16.6 AIL expected to report revenue growth of 46.7% YoY at
Rs2.5 bn. FTWZ business to generate revenue of Rs317 mn
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 13 EBITDA (Rs mn) 483 423 274 76.6 14.3 as compare to Rs60 mn in Q3FY11. EBITDA to grow by
76.6% YoY to Rs483 mn with expansion in margins by
Reco NR EBITDA Margin (%) 19.5 19.9 16.2 330 bps -41 bps 330bps YoY to 19.5%. APAT to increase by 6% YoY to
Rs195 mn.
Target Price (Rs) NR PAT (Rs mn) 195 185 184 6.0 5.6
% Upside n.a EPS (Rs) 3.3 3.1 3.1
Century Plyboards
CMP(Rs) 69 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,680 3,608 3,255 13.0% 2.0% Revenues for the quarter are expected to grow by 13% to
Rs 3.68 bn driven mainly by growth in revenues in the
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 15 EBITDA (Rs mn) 849 482 634 33.9% 76.2% plywood & laminates and ferro alloys segment. EBITDA for
the quarter is expected to grow by 33.9 %yoy to Rs 849mn
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 23.1 13.4 19.5 360 bps 972 bps with overall EBITDA margins expanding 359bps to 23.1%.
Consequently, net profit after minority interest for the
Target Price (Rs) 80 PAT (Rs mn) 266 268 404 -34.0% -0.5% quarter at Rs266mn is expected to decline by 34%.
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 1.2 1.2 1.8 -34.0% -0.5%
Essel Propack
CMP(Rs) 49 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,643 3,649 3,013 20.9% -0.2% Q4FY11E would be 1st quarter with like-to-like base – since
medical devices was sold in Q4FY10. Thus, it will be tubes
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 8 EBITDA (Rs mn) 669 601 486 37.7% 11.3% business, which will take limelight. India and China would
continue with growth momentum, but growth in Europe and
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 16.5 16.1 224 bps 189 bps Americas would be muted. As a result, (1) revenue is
expected to grow at 20.9% to Rs 3.6bn. (2) EBIDTA to grow
Target Price (Rs) 72 PAT (Rs mn) 192 96 61 215.4% 99.5% at 37.7% yoy at Rs 0.7bn, with EBIDTA margin at 18.4% v/s
16.1% in Q4FY10. (3) APAT after forex adj. is expected to
% Upside 47% EPS (Rs) 1.2 0.6 0.4 215.4% 99.5%
report growth of 215.4% yoy to Rs 192mn.
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
HBL Power Systems
CMP(Rs) 22 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,197 2,234 2,998 -26.7% -1.6% Telecom impact to continue at least for this qtr. Expect
revenue to decline by 27% YoY. Higher Raw material costs/
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 200 -53 420 -52.4% lower realizations to lead to an 490bps decline in EBITDA
margins Decline in revenues and EBITDA margins to lead to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 9.1 -2.4 14.0 -492 bps 1,146 bps PAT decline of by 81% yoy to Rs39mn. Key things to watch
- (1) revenues traction in various segments, (2) telecom
Target Price (Rs) UR PAT (Rs mn) 39 -133 211 -81.3% revenues and outlook esp. on replacement demand, (3)
margins, (4) numbers from Igarshi motors and (5) pick up in
% Upside n.a EPS (Rs) 0.2 -0.5 0.8 -81.3%
auto segment.
Kajaria Ceramics
CMP(Rs) 79 Net Sales (Rs mn) 2,536 2,539 2,149 18.0% -0.1% With key revenue drivers of - encouraging industry
demand, strong growth from upper end vitrified tiles and
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 6 EBITDA (Rs mn) 398 397 308 29.1% 0.3% higher trading revenues – we expect revenues of Rs 2.5 bn,
+18% yoy. We estimate EBITDA margins to improve by 135
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 15.7 15.6 14.3 135 bps 6 bps bps yoy to 15.7% resulting in PAT growth of 38.5% yoy to
Rs 177 mn. Recent acquisition of Gujarat based player –
Target Price (Rs) 100 PAT (Rs mn) 177 176 128 38.5% 0.5% Soriso and enhanced capacity in vitrified segment to boost
its revenues and margins.
% Upside 27% EPS (Rs) 2.4 2.4 1.7 38.5% 0.5%
Phoenix Mills (Standalone)
CMP(Rs) 199 Net Sales (Rs mn) 474 451 345 37.5 5.2 PML expected to report growth of 37.5% YoY at Rs474 mn.
This would be due to Palladium having 95% of area
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 29 EBITDA (Rs mn) 343 327 198 73.4 4.9 operational as compared to 70% in Q4FY10. EBITDA to
grow by 73.4% YoY to Rs343mn and EBITDA margin to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 72.4 72.6 57.4 1499 bps -19 bps expand by 1499bps to 72.4%. APAT estimated at Rs251mn,
increase of 60% YoY.
Target Price (Rs) 231 PAT (Rs mn) 251 238 157 60.0 5.7
% Upside 16% EPS (Rs) 1.7 1.6 1.1
Emkay
©
% Chg % Chg
YoY QoQ
Piramal Glass
CMP(Rs) 127 Net Sales (Rs mn) 3,163 3,170 2,900 9.1% -0.2% Piramal Glass strategy remains under implementation i.e.
(1) rising share of C&P and F&B and (2) gains from
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 10 EBITDA (Rs mn) 716 780 679 5.3% -8.3% financial de-leverage. Thus, we expect (1) revenue growth
of 9.1% yoy to Rs 3.2bn (2) EBIDTA growth of 5.3% yoy to
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 22.6 24.6 23.4 -80 bps -200 bps Rs 0.7bn; whereas EBIDTA margin is expected at 22.6% v/s
23.4% in Q4FY10 and (4) APAT growth at 66.2% yoy to Rs
Target Price (Rs) 160 PAT (Rs mn) 190 231 115 66.2% -17.7% 190mn.
% Upside 26% EPS (Rs) 2.4 2.9 1.4 66.2% -17.7%
Sintex Industries Revenue growth of 23% in standalone operations and 63%

in subsidiaries to result in consolidated revenue growth of
CMP(Rs) 169 Net Sales (Rs mn) 14,945 11,860 10,936 36.7% 26.0% 37% YoY. In the standalone business monolithic
construction (+29% yoy) and prefabs (+18% yoy) will lead
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 46 EBITDA (Rs mn) 2,572 1,967 1,932 33.1% 30.8% the charge. Expect consolidated EBITDA margins to
decline by 50bps yoy and consolidated EBITDA to grow by
Reco Accumulate EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2 16.6 17.7 -46 bps 62 bps 33% YoY. Higher depreciation & int cost to lead to a lower
12% YoY growth in consolidated APAT which would still be
a healthy growth considering very high base. Key things to
% Upside 27% EPS (Rs) 5.7 4.2 5.1 11.9% 37.9% watch - (1) orders & execution in monolithic, (2)
performance of subsidiaries, (3) ordering in prefabs, 4)
working capital and net debt situation & 5) update on
investments in other non-core businesses.
Sterlite Tech
CMP(Rs) 67 Net Sales (Rs mn) 7,461 5,791 6,624 12.6% 28.8% Power segment is expected to report higher margins as
compared to last quarter. Realization from the telecom
Mkt Cap (Rs bn) 24 EBITDA (Rs mn) 835 431 1,101 -24.2% 93.7% segment remains the key thing to watch out. PAT is
expected decline 41.2% YoY, due to high interest outgo and
Reco Buy EBITDA Margin (%) 11.2 7.4 16.6 -543 bps 375 bps lower other income coupled with low margin from power
segment. Nevertheless, the company has won orders worth
Target Price (Rs) 68 PAT (Rs mn) 425 171 722 -41.1% 148.5% Rs4.0bn from PGCIL in last two months.
% Upside 1% EPS (Rs) 1.1 0.4 1.8 -41.1% 148.5%
Valuations
Emkay
©
Target EPS PE PB ROCE ROE

Price Mkt Cap Price Sales (Rs mn) EBITDA (Rs mn) PAT (Rs mn) (Rs) (x) (x) (%) (%)
Company Name (Rs) (Rs bn) Reco (Rs) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Agri Input & Chemicals
Advanta India 293 5 Hold 672 7,828 9,601 1,253 1,536 516 706 30.7 42.0 9.6 7.0 0.9 0.8 11.0 12.9 10.1 12.3
Chambal Fertilisers 89 37 Accumulate 86 41,258 41,557 7,599 7,474 3,553 3,572 8.5 8.6 10.4 10.4 2.2 1.9 16.3 15.9 22.9 19.7
Coromandel International 299 84 Buy 435 72,974 80,197 9,820 12,259 6,241 8,118 22.2 28.9 13.4 10.3 4.5 3.5 29.0 37.3 36.9 38.0
Deepak Fertilisers 176 16 Buy 250 15,345 19,167 3,626 4,449 1,874 2,224 21.2 25.2 8.3 7.0 1.4 1.2 17.4 19.5 18.4 19.0
GNFC 108 17 Buy 157 28,147 29,792 4,044 6,660 2,197 3,479 14.1 22.4 7.7 4.8 0.8 0.7 11.0 16.0 10.2 14.6
GSFC 386 31 Buy 530 46,728 49,220 11,072 8,928 6,827 5,285 85.7 66.3 4.5 5.8 1.2 1.0 32.6 21.9 28.5 18.4
Rallis India 1,418 28 Buy 1,800 10,980 12,745 2,229 2,784 1,507 1,873 77.5 96.3 18.3 14.7 5.2 4.1 41.4 40.4 31.6 31.2
Tata Chemicals 360 92 Accumulate 393 112,598 106,370 19,022 20,975 6,982 8,079 28.7 33.2 12.5 10.8 36.0 36.0 21.1 38.7 28.1 332.0
United Phosphorus 155 71 Buy 210 56,302 63,119 10,860 12,659 6,766 8,081 14.7 17.5 10.6 8.8 1.9 1.6 17.7 19.0 19.9 19.6
Automobiles
Ashok Leyland 58 77 Accumulate 68 106,965 120,374 11,493 12,986 6,293 7,600 4.7 5.7 12.2 10.1 2.9 2.5 18.2 20.4 25.3 26.6
Bajaj Auto 1,439 416 Buy 1,650 165,323 197,243 33,784 38,569 26,170 30,914 90.4 106.8 15.9 13.5 10.0 7.4 75.0 69.4 73.7 63.0
Eicher Motors 1,261 34 Accumulate 1,505 43,971 51,143 3,569 4,143 1,889 2,467 70.1 91.6 18.0 13.8 2.8 2.4 24.1 24.6 16.4 18.7
Hero Honda 1,695 338 Reduce 1,540 189,807 219,184 23,534 26,552 20,270 22,730 101.5 113.8 16.7 14.9 8.9 6.4 65.1 59.5 55.7 49.9
Mah & Mah 732 450 Buy 830 235,323 268,091 35,907 39,278 26,059 28,734 42.1 46.5 17.4 15.8 4.3 3.6 28.5 26.5 28.4 25.0
Maruti Suzuki India 1,279 370 Accumulate 1,470 370,807 426,979 34,590 42,718 23,291 28,554 80.6 98.8 15.9 12.9 2.7 2.2 23.8 24.9 18.1 18.8
Tata Motors 1,292 694 Buy 1,520 1,227,070 1,380,672 166,586 188,548 95,219 109,753 144.3 166.3 9.0 7.8 3.7 2.7 26.3 26.2 60.8 40.4
TVS Motor 60 28 Accumulate 72 62,861 72,706 4,091 5,081 2,014 2,831 4.2 6.0 14.1 10.1 2.8 2.4 16.1 19.9 21.9 25.5
Auto Ancillaries
Apollo Tyres 68 34 Accumulate 58 91,577 112,343 8,967 10,307 3,145 3,614 6.2 7.2 10.9 9.5 1.5 1.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2
JK Tyre 106 4 Acumulate 118 54,067 63,898 -684 -327 -3,025 -3,216 -73.7 -78.3 -1.4 -1.4 0.5 0.4 -10.5 -14.5 -34.7 -34.5
Motherson Sumi 222 86 Accumulate 210 82,356 99,126 5,893 8,787 3,289 5,314 8.5 13.7 26.1 16.2 5.8 4.9 25.3 33.9 25.0 33.0
Cement
ACC 1,129 212 Accumulate 1,035 77,173 86,782 16,250 17,345 10,347 11,148 55.1 59.3 20.5 19.0 3.3 3.0 21.2 21.2 16.6 16.4
Ambuja Cements 151 231 Hold 130 73,902 80,701 18,231 19,362 12,092 12,338 7.9 8.1 19.1 18.8 3.2 2.8 25.9 24.2 17.5 15.9
Grasim Industries 2,520 231 Accumulate 2,730 195,198 220,233 44,728 52,950 18,539 21,518 202.2 234.7 12.5 10.7 1.6 1.4 15.7 16.6 13.9 14.3
India Cements 103 32 Hold 98 35,751 42,925 4,686 6,934 767 1,649 2.5 5.4 41.2 19.2 0.9 0.9 4.0 6.5 2.2 4.6
Madras Cements 107 25 Accumulate 102 26,278 30,777 6,344 7,436 1,987 2,429 8.3 10.2 12.8 10.5 1.5 1.3 9.2 10.6 12.2 13.3
Orient Paper 57 11 Buy 77 19,030 22,644 2,666 3,456 1,244 1,700 6.5 8.8 8.9 6.5 1.3 1.1 16.5 20.4 15.3 18.2
Shree Cements 1,951 68 Accumulate 1,960 35,382 45,248 8,945 11,014 2,424 3,314 69.6 95.1 28.0 20.5 3.4 2.9 11.8 14.2 12.6 15.3
Ultratech Cement 1,102 302 Reduce 1,040 151,412 171,121 31,064 37,064 14,979 18,146 54.8 66.4 20.1 16.6 2.9 2.5 21.2 17.0 19.8 15.9
Valuations Emkay
©

Construction
IL&FS Transportation 247 48 Accumulate 275 11,574 31,219 4,770 5,902 2,674 2,976 13.8 15.3 17.9 16.1 2.6 2.2 16.5 17.2 15.6 14.9
IRB Infrastructure 228 76 Buy 280 26,220 37,426 10,993 13,828 4,714 5,176 14.2 15.6 16.1 14.7 3.0 2.5 15.0 13.5 20.3 18.7
IVRCL 95 25 Buy 101 57,398 67,710 5,711 6,602 1,889 2,071 7.1 7.8 13.4 12.2 1.3 1.1 12.8 12.9 9.8 9.8
Jaiprakash Associates 98 209 Buy 110 131,584 148,230 30,272 33,561 7,597 9,833 3.6 4.6 27.5 21.2 2.3 2.1 9.6 10.0 8.8 10.3
Consumers
Asian Paints 2,551 245 Hold 2,510 77,740 91,892 13,946 16,085 8,800 9,939 91.7 103.6 27.8 24.6 10.6 8.1 61.8 53.4 46.0 39.1
Godrej Consumer Products 390 126 Accumulate 420 37,099 44,885 6,467 8,218 4,519 6,106 14.0 18.9 27.9 20.7 6.8 5.6 29.2 24.9 32.3 29.7
Hindustan Unilever 276 596 Hold 275 196,247 212,873 29,403 31,884 21,131 22,944 9.7 10.5 28.5 26.2 19.8 18.0 96.8 92.4 75.1 71.7
Jubilant FoodWorks 616 40 Accumulate 645 6,809 9,704 1,226 1,767 733 976 11.5 15.3 53.5 40.1 22.3 16.0 62.6 68.6 49.9 46.4
Marico 139 85 Accumulate 142 32,360 39,720 4,239 5,330 2,887 3,666 4.7 6.0 29.6 23.3 9.6 7.2 32.9 36.4 38.2 35.8
Titan Industries 3,995 177 Accumulate 3,876 64,102 78,847 6,373 7,897 4,284 5,268 96.5 118.7 41.4 33.7 16.5 11.8 62.7 55.5 47.6 40.9
Engineering & Capital Goods

Bharat Bijlee 1,106 6 Buy 1,350 7,739 9,014 963 1,153 543 658 96.1 116.4 11.5 9.5 2.4 2.1 31.6 33.7 22.6 23.8
BHEL 2,197 1,075 Buy 2,760 415,392 487,844 96,750 108,771 60,186 67,596 123.0 138.1 17.9 15.9 5.4 4.3 50.0 45.2 33.4 30.2
Blue Star 377 34 Buy 455 29,628 36,011 3,108 3,885 1,814 2,341 20.2 26.0 18.7 14.5 5.8 4.8 40.0 38.8 33.7 36.1
Cummins India 696 138 Buy 800 40,419 48,464 7,159 8,594 6,061 7,247 30.6 36.6 22.7 19.0 7.2 5.9 48.7 47.5 34.9 34.0
Elecon Engineering 77 7 Buy 89 11,762 13,819 1,817 2,148 641 830 6.9 8.9 11.1 8.6 1.8 1.5 16.2 18.2 17.7 19.2
EMCO 68 4 Reduce 60 11,494 13,972 62 1,193 -364 268 -5.6 4.1 -12.1 16.4 0.8 0.8 -1.4 9.2 -6.4 4.8
Greaves Cotton 96 23 Buy 111 16,133 19,155 2,636 3,212 1,572 1,925 6.4 7.9 14.9 12.2 4.3 3.4 46.4 45.6 32.0 31.3
Indo Tech 163 2 Hold 245 1,569 2,585 -159 175 -161 103 -15.1 9.7 -10.8 16.9 1.4 1.3 -13.9 9.9 -12.3 8.0
Larsen & Toubro 1,667 1,015 Buy 2,015 531,244 655,163 88,989 115,966 42,653 53,417 70.3 88.1 23.7 18.9 4.1 3.5 14.7 15.3 18.7 19.8
Lakshmi Machine Works 2,443 28 Accumulate 2,654 17,981 20,115 2,887 3,292 1,645 1,933 133.0 156.3 18.4 15.6 2.9 2.6 25.0 25.6 16.8 17.6
Mcnally Bharat Engineering 224 7 Buy 292 18,396 22,881 1,298 1,640 493 659 15.9 21.2 14.1 10.5 2.6 2.1 25.4 26.4 20.0 22.1
Punj Lloyd 76 25 Hold 91 85,000 116,885 6,066 8,299 -35 1,551 -0.1 4.6 -748.2 16.7 0.8 0.8 5.2 8.2 -0.1 4.7
Thermax 680 81 Buy 943 49,428 59,861 6,337 7,548 3,855 4,642 32.4 39.0 21.0 17.5 6.0 4.8 47.1 45.5 31.7 30.6
TRF 511 6 Accumulate 586 10,554 14,249 696 1,118 396 639 36.0 58.1 14.2 8.8 3.1 2.4 16.1 23.1 24.3 31.0
TRIL 276 4 Accumulate 315 5,641 6,747 682 809 446 522 34.5 40.4 8.0 6.8 1.1 1.0 16.6 18.0 14.5 14.9
Voltamp Transformers 608 6 Hold 656 6,091 7,214 685 829 520 635 51.4 62.7 11.8 9.7 1.7 1.5 17.5 19.1 14.8 16.1
Voltas 182 60 Buy 250 51,333 61,417 5,626 6,674 3,472 4,228 10.5 12.8 17.4 14.3 4.4 3.5 42.1 40.3 28.1 27.4
Financial Services - Others

CRISIL 6,751 48 Accumulate 7,000 6,310 8,324 2,184 2,953 1,763 2,271 248.5 320.0 27.2 21.1 12.1 7.8 46.5 44.9
ICRA 1,145 11 Accumulate 1,370 1,948 2,337 736 934 557 694 55.7 69.4 20.6 16.5 4.7 4.1 24.5 26.7
Valuations Emkay
©

IT Services
eClerx Services 746 22 Accumulate 740 3,408 4,343 1,312 1,661 1,275 1,547 43.1 52.3 17.3 14.3 8.2 6.3 52.2 49.9 54.5 50.0
HCL Tech 497 341 Hold 540 157,882 196,481 26,007 34,750 15,776 22,262 22.7 31.9 21.9 15.6 4.5 3.7 20.9 25.9 21.4 26.2
Hexaware Technologies 70 20 Accumulate 66 10,545 13,714 938 1,792 853 1,660 2.9 5.7 23.7 12.2 2.0 1.8 7.5 14.3 9.3 15.8
Infinite Computer 188 8 Buy 250 8,732 10,797 1,458 1,847 1,075 1,317 24.4 29.9 7.7 6.3 2.1 1.7 28.8 30.2 29.6 29.6
Infosys 3,247 1,865 Accumulate 3,400 276,956 341,963 91,091 112,244 68,640 86,204 119.7 150.3 27.1 21.6 6.8 5.7 32.4 33.9 27.2 28.6
Mahindra Satyam 76 89 Reduce 65 51,117 60,650 3,917 6,725 3,477 5,242 2.9 4.4 25.8 17.1 4.1 3.3 10.3 20.1 17.2 21.7
Mphasis 440 92 Reduce 450 50,366 52,312 12,649 10,212 10,908 7,971 51.9 37.8 8.5 11.6 2.8 2.3 38.7 23.6 38.6 21.8
NIIT 56 9 Accumulate 80 12,512 13,435 1,667 1,984 751 832 4.6 5.0 12.4 11.2 1.6 1.5 8.0 8.9 14.0 13.9
TCS 1,199 2,347 Accumulate 1,275 373,248 460,077 111,504 133,740 85,686 100,317 43.8 51.3 27.4 23.4 9.5 7.9 43.9 44.6 37.4 36.8
Tech Mahindra 750 94 Hold 730 51,260 55,866 10,022 10,862 8,241 9,429 62.9 72.0 11.9 10.4 2.9 2.3 22.3 23.5 26.1 24.3
Wipro 472 1,158 Reduce 440 310,085 369,059 65,758 77,675 51,566 60,006 21.0 24.4 22.5 19.3 5.6 4.4 24.4 25.8 25.6 25.4
Metals & Mining

Bhushan Steel 462 98 Accumulate 369 67,070 76,617 25,183 30,094 10,382 12,626 244.4 297.2 1.9 1.6 0.5 0.4 14.4 13.7 28.1 26.2
Godawari Power 187 5 Buy 228 8,399 11,828 1,819 2,669 682 1,294 25.3 48.0 7.4 3.9 0.9 0.7 12.4 17.5 12.9 20.9
HEG 254 11 Hold 368 13,543 15,075 3,904 4,087 1,842 1,959 43.2 46.0 5.9 5.5 1.2 1.1 22.5 21.7 22.9 20.8
JSW Steel 1,001 223 Accumulate 1,060 231,191 312,082 44,734 63,998 14,622 26,609 72.5 131.8 13.8 7.6 1.4 1.2 11.0 15.0 12.2 16.5
Sesa Goa 316 272 Hold 336 84,428 97,309 46,798 44,032 41,675 33,287 46.8 37.4 6.7 8.4 2.1 1.7 41.6 30.8 38.6 21.7
Sterlite Industries 175 587 Accumulate 205 278,691 378,352 69,998 104,890 45,336 68,320 13.5 20.3 12.9 8.6 1.4 1.2 14.3 17.5 11.6 15.5
Tata Steel 638 612 Accumulate 695 1,158,436 1,305,930 154,494 169,472 61,543 69,991 68.7 78.1 9.3 8.2 3.2 2.4 14.0 13.3 22.3 19.9

Aban Offshore 702 31 Accumulate 680 33,099 35,220 21,055 21,846 4,164 4,815 95.8 110.7 7.3 6.3 1.6 1.2 10.2 11.0 22.1 21.2
Garware Offshore 141 3 Accumulate 130 2,005 2,376 939 1,321 275 499 11.6 21.0 12.2 6.7 1.2 1.0 6.9 9.5 10.1 16.2
Great Offshore 290 11 Buy 425 9,427 13,103 4,027 6,155 1,012 1,976 27.2 53.1 10.6 5.5 1.0 0.8 6.8 10.4 9.4 16.3
Oil & Gas

BPCL 613 222 Accumulate 671 1,440,249 1,484,655 54,341 55,575 18,854 19,642 52.1 54.3 11.7 11.3 1.3 1.2 10.7 11.4 11.9 11.1
GAIL 474 601 Accumulate 565 342,281 380,790 65,956 75,259 35,794 39,877 28.2 31.4 16.8 15.1 3.0 2.6 20.9 19.3 18.8 18.3
Gujarat Gas 384 49 Buy 481 18,171 20,196 4,168 4,976 2,434 2,880 19.0 22.5 20.2 17.1 5.0 4.0 38.2 36.5 27.9 26.0
Gujarat State Petronet 102 57 Buy 135 10,643 11,320 10,143 10,808 4,801 5,453 8.5 9.7 11.9 10.5 2.9 2.3 24.7 24.0 27.1 24.6
HPCL 366 124 Buy 444 1,183,804 1,232,503 45,805 47,853 17,436 19,628 51.4 57.9 7.1 6.3 0.9 0.8 9.9 11.0 13.6 13.8
Indian Oil 336 815 Accumulate 372 2,981,900 3,035,380 216,287 221,139 121,071 122,834 49.9 50.6 6.7 6.6 1.3 1.1 18.3 18.4 20.7 18.3
Indraprastha Gas 318 45 Accumulate 382 17,289 19,783 4,961 5,644 2,600 2,935 18.6 21.0 17.1 15.2 4.4 3.7 39.4 34.9 28.4 26.6
Petronet LNG 128 96 Buy 156 128,169 145,754 12,544 14,368 5,823 6,599 7.8 8.8 16.5 14.5 3.6 3.0 19.2 19.0 23.8 22.7
Valuations Emkay
©

Paper
Ballarpur Inds 37 24 Buy 42 44,917 47,998 9,196 11,069 2,212 3,373 3.4 5.1 11.0 7.2 1.0 0.9 9.1 10.9 9.5 13.1
JK Paper 59 5 Buy 84 11,659 11,683 2,178 2,710 118 1,091 1.5 14.0 39.0 4.2 0.8 0.7 12.1 15.3 2.2 17.5
Tamilnadu Newsprint 138 10 Buy 200 12,327 15,555 3,986 5,456 1,549 1,720 22.3 24.8 6.2 5.6 1.0 0.9 10.8 13.3 17.9 17.4
Pharmaceuticals
Aurobindo Pharma 202 59 Buy 265 39,881 46,037 7,092 7,865 5,283 5,958 18.1 20.4 11.1 9.9 2.5 2.3 18.9 17.9 25.4 24.2
Cadila Healthcare 828 170 Accumulate 847 45,150 55,383 9,801 12,238 6,408 8,191 31.3 40.0 26.5 20.7 7.6 5.9 29.8 33.4 37.2 34.0
Cipla 321 258 Reduce 310 62,695 70,885 13,735 16,121 10,081 12,460 12.6 15.5 25.6 20.7 3.8 3.4 18.4 19.9 16.0 17.3
Dishman Pharma 107 9 Hold 118 8,925 10,162 1,500 1,829 625 740 7.7 9.1 13.9 11.7 1.0 1.0 4.6 6.0 7.7 8.6
Divi's Lab 694 92 Buy 833 11,247 13,712 4,283 5,443 3,474 4,422 26.3 33.5 26.4 20.7 5.3 4.4 23.1 27.1 21.3 23.1
Dr. Reddy's Lab 1,634 276 Accumulate 1,750 73,960 95,964 16,324 23,951 10,110 16,347 59.9 96.8 27.3 16.9 6.0 4.5 23.3 33.4 24.1 30.6
Glaxosmithkline Pharma 2,152 182 Hold 2,161 21,511 24,229 8,893 9,990 5,783 6,568 68.3 77.5 31.5 27.7 9.4 8.7 46.6 48.4 30.1 32.5
Glenmark Pharma 304 82 Accumulate 371 29,553 33,712 7,811 9,248 4,494 5,128 16.7 19.0 18.3 16.0 3.0 2.6 14.5 16.2 15.9 17.3
Ipca Lab 309 39 Accumulate 336 18,872 22,506 3,963 4,727 2,487 3,050 20.0 24.5 15.5 12.6 3.6 2.9 22.7 24.0 25.7 25.4
Jubilant Life Sciences 183 29 Accumulate 215 33,967 38,072 5,619 6,586 2,223 2,386 14.0 15.0 13.0 12.2 1.2 1.3 7.5 8.4 8.5 10.1
Lupin 408 182 Accumulate 496 58,003 66,103 12,604 14,863 8,759 10,588 19.7 23.8 20.7 17.1 5.2 4.0 25.6 25.8 29.5 27.0
Panacea Biotec 186 12 Accumulate 221 10,637 12,263 2,627 3,072 1,104 1,478 18.0 24.1 10.4 7.7 1.6 1.3 13.0 14.2 15.7 18.9
Piramal Healthcare 439 73 Hold 531 41,752 47,900 8,440 9,769 5,539 6,980 26.5 33.4 16.6 13.2 4.4 3.6 25.1 30.7 29.5 30.1
Pfizer 1,237 37 Accumulate 1,193 9,287 10,281 1,886 2,169 1,643 1,902 7.8 8.8 159.4 140.6 34.9 29.4 19.2 19.0 23.8 22.7
Ranbaxy Labs 463 195 Hold 396 89,602 87,824 18,389 11,440 10,819 6,684 25.7 15.9 18.0 29.1 3.5 3.4 20.3 12.0 30.0 6.6
Sun Pharma 442 455 Hold 460 51,342 57,984 18,313 20,623 17,136 19,753 16.5 19.1 26.7 23.2 5.0 4.2 21.2 20.9 20.7 20.3
Torrent Pharma 569 48 Buy 650 21,812 25,896 4,576 5,568 3,127 3,899 36.9 46.1 15.4 12.3 5.0 4.3 31.3 36.6 34.8 37.2
Unichem Labs 204 18 Accumulate 243 8,446 10,558 1,798 2,394 1,210 1,682 13.4 18.7 15.2 10.9 2.9 2.4 25.2 31.0 20.1 24.2
Power
Adani Power 120 261 Hold 113 21,096 87,178 12,460 58,433 6,513 30,205 3.0 13.9 40.1 8.6 3.9 2.6 5.3 16.6 10.3 37.5
Gujarat Industries Power 93 14 Hold 101 10,989 13,957 2,882 4,511 1,208 1,507 8.0 10.0 11.6 9.3 1.1 1.0 7.0 11.0 9.5 11.2
Jaiprakash Power Ventures 49 103 Hold 49 6,299 22,022 5,587 18,648 1,842 4,492 0.9 2.1 55.9 22.9 2.7 1.9 3.4 8.3 5.1 13.4
JSW Energy 85 139 Reduce 78 42,450 72,343 16,342 30,652 7,763 13,042 4.7 8.0 17.9 10.7 2.5 2.0 9.1 12.3 15.0 20.8
KSK Energy 107 40 Hold 110 8,213 20,046 4,461 11,142 2,048 4,870 5.5 13.1 19.5 8.2 1.3 1.1 4.3 9.2 7.3 14.7
Lanco Infratech 44 107 Buy 56 80,451 120,306 21,423 40,183 6,120 8,917 2.6 3.7 17.3 11.9 2.1 1.7 13.3 13.8 17.7 19.0
Nava Bharat Ventures 279 21 Accumulate 328 11,344 13,080 3,468 4,856 3,009 4,033 33.3 44.7 8.4 6.3 1.2 1.0 14.4 15.1 16.6 17.8
NTPC 186 1,536 Accumulate 204 519,496 591,950 134,482 162,636 83,598 94,272 10.1 11.4 18.4 16.3 2.3 2.1 9.8 9.7 13.6 13.4
Reliance Power 135 380 Accumulate 157 14,931 34,707 5,658 15,727 6,144 8,998 2.2 3.2 61.7 42.1 2.3 2.2 1.9 4.0 4.0 5.3
Valuations Emkay
©

Print Media
DB Corp 256 46 Hold 284 12,494 14,016 3,972 4,405 2,410 2,709 13.3 14.9 19.3 17.2 5.1 4.0 33.3 32.8 30.3 26.0
Deccan Chroicle 88 21 Buy 175 11,042 12,051 4,537 4,908 2,359 2,704 9.7 11.2 9.1 7.9 1.6 1.4 24.0 24.1 18.4 18.7
HT Media 158 37 Buy 175 17,796 20,290 3,351 4,205 1,748 2,301 7.4 9.8 21.3 16.1 2.6 1.8 18.2 19.2 14.3 13.3
Jagran Prakashan 125 39 Buy 155 11,260 13,578 3,504 4,188 2,122 2,575 7.0 8.6 17.7 14.6 5.0 4.0 37.6 39.1 30.9 30.2
Telecommunications
Bharti Airtel 357 1,354 Hold 345 594,932 720,937 200,298 253,940 62,487 82,551 16.5 21.7 21.7 16.4 2.8 2.4 13.1 13.3 13.6 15.8
Idea Cellular 66 219 Sell 60 154,431 178,514 37,041 43,705 8,715 7,984 2.6 2.4 25.1 27.4 1.9 1.7 6.0 6.2 7.4 6.6
Reliance Communications 111 229 Reduce 85 200,022 214,967 62,693 69,677 13,230 15,161 6.4 7.3 17.3 15.1 0.5 0.5 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.2
Tulip Telecom 161 23 Buy 218 2,389 2,845 673 821 321 423 19.5 25.7 8.2 6.3 2.1 1.6 26.6 25.6 29.7 29.3
Others
Century Plyboards 69 15 Buy 80 13,811 16,732 2,736 3,431 1,367 1,844 6.2 8.3 11.2 8.3 2.4 1.9 16.9 15.2 24.3 25.7
Essel Propack 49 8 Buy 72 14,301 15,807 2,516 3,085 523 941 3.3 6.0 14.7 8.2 1.0 0.9 12.7 16.1 7.3 11.8
HBL Power Systems 22 6 Buy UR 9,427 11,312 619 1,275 -77 387 -0.3 1.5 -71.3 14.2 1.1 1.0 3.3 10.0 0.1 7.2
Kajaria Ceramics 79 6 Buy 100 9,262 10,656 1,471 1,758 594 740 8.1 10.1 9.8 7.8 2.4 1.9 20.2 21.7 27.8 27.6
Phoenix Mills 199 29 Buy 231 2,120 4,766 1,422 2,697 835 1,109 7.8 8.8 25.7 22.7 5.6 4.7 19.2 19.0 23.8 22.7
Piramal Glass 127 10 Buy 160 12,224 13,322 2,804 3,603 793 1,506 9.9 18.7 12.9 6.8 3.3 2.2 14.7 20.3 32.5 40.8
Sintex Industries 169 46 Accumulate 215 45,143 54,633 7,629 9,458 4,468 5,552 16.5 20.5 10.3 8.3 1.9 1.6 11.7 13.6 20.8 21.2
Sterlite Tech 67 24 Buy 68 23,264 29,541 3,001 4,136 1,727 2,676 4.4 6.8 15.2 9.8 2.1 1.8 17.7 21.3 15.9 19.6
Thank You Emkay
©
Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Paragon Center, H -13 -16, 1st Floor, Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai – 400 013. Tel No. 6612 1212. Fax: 6624 2410
DISCLAIMER: This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person.
The manner of circulation and distribution of this document may be restricted by law or regulation in certain countries, including the United States. Persons into whose possession
this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are
not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or
solicitation would be illegal. No person associated with Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd. is obligated to call or initiate contact with you for the purposes of elaborating or
following up on the information contained in this document. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete,
and it should not be relied upon. Neither Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The
recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this
material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us
from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. We and our
affiliates, officers, directors, and employees world wide, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may; (a) from time to time, have long or short
positions in, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earn brokerage or other
compensation or act as a market maker in the financial instruments of the company(ies) discussed herein or may perform or seek to perform investment banking services for such
company(ies) or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and
opinions. The same persons may have acted upon the information contained here. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed without Emkay Global
Financial Services Ltd.'s prior written consent. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in the United Kingdom. In so far as this report
includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed.

Q4FY11 Results Preview

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Q4FY11 Results Preview

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Emkay

Your success is our success

Emkay Global Financial Services Ltd.

Large Caps Mid Caps Small Caps

Adani Power Chambal Fertilisers EMCO

Allahabad Bank Eicher Motors Essel Propack

Bank of India GNFC Piramal Glass

Canara Bank Hexaware Technologies

Petronet LNG Jubilant FoodWorks

State Bank of India Madras Cements

Tata Motors Manappuram General Finance

Titan Industries Phoenix Mills

United Bank Of India

Large Caps Mid Caps Small Caps

Jaiprakash Power Ventures Aban Offshore Dishman Pharma

JSW Energy Apollo Tyres Great Offshore

Ranbaxy Labs Century Plyboards HBL Power Systems

Reliance Communications Jubilant Life Sciences JK Tyre

Tata Steel KSK Energy Tamilnadu Newsprint

Nava Bharat Ventures

APAT (Rs mn) APAT Gr

APAT (Rs mn) APAT Gr

Net Sales Growth Ebitda Growth

Adani Power 326.7% Adani Power 368.9%

Godrej Consumer Products 118.8% Hexaware Technologies 133.9%

KSK Energy 80.5% GSFC 85.8%

IRB Infrastructure 77.4% Jubilant FoodWorks 84.3%

Indo Tech 75.4% Arshiya International 76.6%

JSW Energy 63.1% Phoenix Mills 73.4%

Bharti Airtel 62.0% Gujarat Industries Power 72.3%

GNFC 60.1% KSK Energy 65.8%

Jubilant FoodWorks 58.2% Godrej Consumer Products 59.3%

Punj Lloyd 49.7% Tata Motors 58.7%

PAT Growth Ebitda Margin Growth

Hexaware Technologies 278.2% Punj Lloyd 3,534 bps

Essel Propack 215.4% GNFC 2,986 bps

Adani Power 207.1% Indo Tech 2,458 bps

Shree Cements 169.2% Phoenix Mills 1,499 bps

Madras Cements 112.8% Tamilnadu Newsprint 710 bps

Lanco Infratech 108.5% Gujarat Industries Power 709 bps

India Cements 107.8% GSFC 697 bps

Tata Motors 102.1% Panacea Biotec 667 bps

Jubilant FoodWorks 97.8% Madras Cements 665 bps

Piramal Glass 66.2% Grasim Industries 639 bps

Net Sales Growth Ebitda Growth

HBL Power Systems -26.7% Jaiprakash Power Ventures -69.2%

Ranbaxy Labs -23.8% HBL Power Systems -52.4%

Panacea Biotec -22.0% JK Tyre -37.1%

Aban Offshore -19.3% Nava Bharat Ventures -35.0%

Garware Offshore -12.4% Jubilant Life Sciences -33.4%

Jubilant Life Sciences -12.0% Sterlite Tech -24.2%

Great Offshore -6.9% Dishman Pharma -22.7%

Lanco Infratech -4.1% Aban Offshore -20.8%

Tamilnadu Newsprint -3.3% Divi's Lab -20.7%

PAT Growth Ebitda Margin Growth

Ranbaxy Labs -82.7% Nava Bharat Ventures -1,341 bps

HBL Pow er Systems -81.3% JSW Energy -1,146 bps

Reliance Communications -73.7% Sun Pharma -1,041 bps

Jaiprakash Power Ventures -70.6% Divi's Lab -942 bps

Aban Offshore -68.6% Shree Cements -932 bps

Dishman Pharma -65.7% IRB Infrastructure -897 bps

Jubilant Life Sciences -56.5% ACC -820 bps

Apollo Tyres -52.4% Ambuja Cements -711 bps