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(a)
The key difference between ‘maximisation of profits’ and ‘maximisation of wealth’ is that profit focus
is on short-term earnings, whilst wealth focus is on increasing shareholder value of the business.
Risk management Since the focus is on cutting down Would invest and spend on
expenses, the investment on risk risk mitigation
mitigation is low
Production capacity Optimum production capacity to Invest in expansion of
maximise short-term profits production capacity for
long-term wealth creation
(b) (i)
Project WACC
(1,000/4,800) * 0.18 +
(3,800/4,800) * 0.13
0.0375 + 0.1029
= 14.04%
Dear Sirs,
On review of the project, it appears that this mixed development is financially viable with a project
NPV of Rs. 1,427 million. The strategic location Galle Face and the past track record of Serene Builders
are all plus points too. However, the key assumption is that both commercial and residential towers
could be sold in Year 1. As such, ideally, we may have to obtain independent advice from a real estate
specialist on the demand and supply trends. Hence, we have to determine the sensitivity of the
project NPV vis-à-vis the % sales of the residential and commercial apartments/total available
apartments.
Attention should also be drawn to the commercial tower, where the developer is planning to sell each
floor to commercial clients. The question arises whether there would be sufficient corporates locally
in Sri Lanka to fill in this tower. Therefore, we may need to obtain the detailed marketing plans of
Serene Builders regarding the interest of foreign investors, and the % of foreign to % local investors
taking up floors. With the prevailing COVID-19 pandemic, although the interest would be quite
dampened, in time to come Sri Lanka would be an attractive commercial hub in South Asia.
In relation to the construction cost, we need to obtain more details pertaining to imported material,
local resources, labour requirement etc. Any undue delays in construction would have a negative
impact on the project’s viability.
The macro-economic fundamentals of Sri Lanka, interest rates, inflation, USD/LKR movement and
the political stability would be vital for the success of this project.
It is recommended that Prudential Bank obtains mortgage rights for the entire property, and a
corporate guarantee from Serene Builders.
Therefore, it is suggested to further evaluate the key marketing and construction cost assumptions.
Kind regards,
……………………….
(Total: 25 marks)
(a) (i)
Cov AB = 0.3785%
Cov BC = 0.7323%
Cov AC = 0.2329%
Amount to be
invested
Portfolio (Rs. million) Total Weight
AB 100 150 250 0.40 0.60
BC 150 100 250 0.60 0.40
AC 50 200 250 0.20 0.80
ERP AB = 13.08%
ERP BC = 13.30%
ERP AC = 14.25%
= 7.93%
= 9.23%
= 6.06%
Windcare (Pvt) Ltd should invest Rs. 50 million in Security A and Rs. 200 million in Security C as it
gives a return of 14.25% and a standard deviation of 6.06%.
(ii) It is possible for Windcare (Pvt) Ltd to diversify away the unsystematic risk (industry specific
risk) by investing in a portfolio. As a rational risk averse investor, Windcare (Pvt) Ltd will be
able to diversify away as much risk as possible and therefore hold the market portfolio of
shares; that is a portfolio containing every share in the market. Then that portfolio contains
zero unsystematic risk.
However, some risk would remain even in a perfectly diversified equity portfolio. This is
known as systematic risk and it can never be removed from a portfolio. Windcare (Pvt) Ltd
will be able to minimise the unsystematic risk or bring it to zero by diversifying.
(b)
Y0 Y1 Y2 From Y3
Growth rate 5.32% 5.32% 4.00%
DPS (Rs.) 1.38 1.45 1.53 1.59
Annuity to infinity 9.091
PV at Y2 14.47
DF at 15% 1.000 0.870 0.756 0.756
PV 1.38 1.26 1.16 10.94
Value of a share (Rs.) 14.74
Market price (Rs.) 18.75
Therefore, value of a share < market price
The market price of Leema PLC is overpriced. Hence it is not recommended to invest in the shares of
Leema PLC.
Alternative answer
Value per share (intrinsic value per share) is less than the market price of Leema PLC. Hence, it is
over-priced and some investors may not invest in this company. However, by looking at the
profitability, growth rate and the retention ratio of the company, investors may expect a reasonable
increase in value in the future. Therefore, investors may decide to invest in the shares of the company
by looking at the future better prospects of the company.
In addition, the dividend growth model has its own limitations. Thereby it may not provide an
accurate value per share of the company. The actual value of the company would have either
increased or decreased. Thus, a risk-taking investor (a risk taker) may invest in these shares
irrespective of the value per share using the dividend growth model. Therefore, it totally depends on
the risk appetite of the investor.
(Total: 25 marks)
Question 03
The value per share is Rs. 16.11 and the value range given is acceptable.
W1: Operating expenses and working capital
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Rs. million
Y0 Y1 Y2 Y3 Y4 Y5
Rs. million
Operating profit 2,955 3,014 3,074 3,197 3,325 3,491
Depreciation and amortisation 1,667 1,700 1,734 1,804 1,876 1,969
Change in working capital (42) (43) (87) (90) (117)
Capital expenditure (2,000) (2,100) (2,500) (2,900) (3,700)
Income tax (754) (769) (799) (831) (873)
Free cash flows 1,919 1,897 1,615 1,379 771
Terminal value 9,924
Total cash flows 1,919 1,897 1,615 1,379 10,695
NPV 11,705
Cost of debt
Cost of debt = 8%
Cost of equity
Company
Debt-to-equity ratio
Debt Equity
50% 100%
Beta = 1.10
Unlevered beta
Cost of equity
Key reasons
The key reason for the varying business valuation result is largely a timing difference in our opinion
as further explained below.
The market-based valuation was carried out somewhere in February 2020 when the business
environment was quite stable, and businesses were operating as usual. Therefore, the market had
placed a reasonably higher value of Rs. 33 per share compared to its book value. This may be due to
the company’s potential in the future, and it could have also been a representation of the company’s
brand value arising from a great track record and an experienced management team.
However, starting in March 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak created uncertainty in every business
segment but specifically in the leisure and global logistic sectors. Therefore, the overall business
valuation must have come down in almost all the business enterprises and this may be further
evident by the low all share price index during the period.
The company carried out its DCF valuation post-outbreak but it was just before the second wave in
Sri Lanka occurred. Therefore, the cash flows predicted must have obviously factored for uncertainty,
which has resulted in unfavorable cash flows. On the other side it is never recommended to carry out
a DCF valuation during uncertain times as cash flow predictions will run long into the future.
Therefore, a company’s attempt to compare a market-based valuation carried out during a stable
period with a DCF valuation carried out during an unstable period does not make sense.
For example, working capital which is computed at 125% of depreciation and amortisation seems
unrealistic.
Further, theoretically the market-based valuation may be different to the DCF valuation even for the
same period under review due to the following reasons.
(b)
Therefore, it does necessarily mean there will be an increase in the share price unless there is some
leftover for ordinary shareholders after deducting the debt amount from the value created for the
enterprise.
Develop
A. 22,176.25
Succeed (75%)
14,342.79 15,000
Type 1 (60%) 7,500 B. (9,157.59)
6,243.54 Abandon
Succeed (70%) Fail (25%) C. (9,158.00)
3,995.48 Develop
D. (2,435.70)
Test (5,905.33)
Succeed (40%)
Type 2 (40%) 12,500
2,500
6,250
E. (8,218.40)
1,250 Fail (30%) Abandon
Fail (60%)
F. (8,218.40)
Abandon 0%)
G. (1,250.00)
Node B
CF (1,250.00) (2,500.00) (7,500.00)
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91 0.75
(1,250.00) (2,272.73) (5,634.86)
NPV (9,157.59)
Node C
CF (1,250.0) (2,500.0) (7,500.0)
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91 0.75
(1,250.0) (2,272.7) (5,634.9)
NPV (9,157.6)
Node D
CF (1,250.0) (2,500.0) (6,250.0) 11,269.0
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91 0.75 0.51
(1,250.0) (2,272.7) (4,695.7) 5,782.8
NPV (2,435.7)
Node E
CF (1,250.0) (2,500.0) (6,250.0)
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91 0.75
(1,250.0) (2,272.7) (4,695.7) -
NPV (8,218.4)
Node F
CF (1,250.0) (2,500.0) (6,250.0)
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91 0.75
(1,250.0) (2,272.7) (4,695.7) -
NPV (8,218.4)
Node G
CF (1,250.0)
Discount factor (10%) 1.00 0.91
(1,250.0) - - -
NPV (1,250.0)
The value of Rs. 4 billion created by the new mega project is acceptable.
(i)
1. The project finance cash outflows should match the project revenue. In other words,
short/medium term projects can be financed with short/medium term financing and long-term
projects should be financed with long-term financing.
Relevance: The special feature of the said mega project is that no inflows can be expected for the
first 7 years. However, if the company decides to go ahead mainly with debt financing, there is a
big question as to how the first 7-year loan servicing is going to be possible.
2. The company should move to an optimal capital structure. The present capital structure of the
company is heavily equity financed. Therefore, adding more debt into the capital structure
would reduce the WACC.
Therefore, the company could absorb more debt into its capital structure in order to bring down
the WACC. However, there is going to be a major mismatch between revenue cash flows and
project financing cash flows. Therefore, the company should make a call if the debt providers
are prepared to allow a grace period and if so what the cost of the debt would be.
(ii) The existing shareholders may have understood the following implications on HCL in the
event they undertake the new project under HCL.
The beta factor of HCL would go up and it would lead to an increase in WACC. This means
a lower business valuation.
The company may run into a liquidity trap in trying to finance the mega project.
Therefore, there may be another burden to group cash flows on top of the existing
problematic SBUs (leisure & travel, logistics, energy and power).
The business valuation of HCL will heavily depend on the success of the new project. In
other words, HCL will get into a volatile situation.
New investors will have to join with a large proportion of capital that would in turn allow
them to control the current operations of HCL.
The mega project seems to be of high risk. The current volatile macro environment has
generated adequate risks to business and the said project could be a risk multiplier.
Total assets to
Total liabilities
3 liabilities 1,056 839 1,749 1,438 1,652 1,334
Total assets 2,167 1,980 1,577 1,288 1,607 1,640
Total assets to
liabilities 49% 42% 111% 112% 103% 81%
Interest coverage
EBIT
4 ratio 152 32 26 22 19 3
Interest 76 49 51 32 38 21
Interest
coverage ratio 2.00 0.65 0.51 0.69 0.48 0.15
In 2020, all the SBUs except for leisure & travel reported a negative net profit ratio before tax. It can be reasonably assumed that all of them will report
sizable negative NP ratios after tax.
On the other hand, the return on assets for each SBU was either negative or very marginal. Once again, after tax, the return on assets will be zero.
By looking at the above ratios, it can be concluded that each SBU does not provide justice to HCL for the assets deployed into the business. Further, each
SBU has failed to manage its expenses compared to revenue. Therefore, all the SBUs have shown very unsatisfactory results.
The leisure & travel sector shows an acceptable ratio between assets and liabilities. All the other SBUs indicate an unfavorable position.
The interest coverage ratio indicates that all the SBUs (except for leisure & travel in 2020) cannot even cover their interest expense for the year.
Therefore, we can arrive at the conclusion that none of the SBUs show any indication of being a going concern unless the management has any
information to say otherwise.
Qualitative concerns
The leisure & travel and logistics sectors are about to experience a largely negative impact post COVID-19. You should bear in mind that the current
status is not related to any impact arising from COVID-19 therefore with the pandemic effect the negative impact is going to be quite significant.
However, the company may reconsider the power & energy SBU, given the current situation in the country where the demand for renewal energy may
go up. Therefore, close attention is needed before making a call.
(Total: 50 marks)
The answers given are entirely by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Sri Lanka (CA Sri Lanka)
and you accept the answers on an "as is" basis.
They are not intended as “Model answers’, but rather as suggested solutions.
2. to assist students with their research into the subject and to further their understand ing and
appreciation of the subject.
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