Xtrades Members Select Weekend Analysis Report

Part 1, 2, & 3
– May 2, 2021 –

Table of Contents

Part 1 – Market Overview Page 2-5

1. SPX500/SPY – DIX/GEX/DXY/BUFFETT INDICATOR/Interest Rate
2. NAS100/QQQ

Part 2 – Popular Tickers as Voted by Community

3. BA (Boeing) Page 6
4. INTC (Intel) Page 7
5. X (US Steel Corp) Page 8

Part 3 – Personal Watchlist

6. NFLX (Netflix) Page 9
7. TWTR (Twitter) Page 9

Preface:

This analysis/watchlist is based on tickers requested by the community. As such the included analysis is primarily based
on technical analysis and any tidbits of fundamental analysis based on cursory research/reading. Keeping that in mind, if
you know something I do not, be sure to share! Also, the order of tickers is not indicative of any preference or
sentiment on one ticker over another, it is just the order I happened to look up each ticker.

Disclaimer: This analysis is just my opinion and is for educational purposes only. This is not financial advice and every
individual should be responsible for doing their own research before getting into plays.

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 1

Part 1 –
SPY (SP500)
Daily Chart:

Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/xTlCVWva/

DIX/GEX
Daily Chart:

Link: https://squeezemetrics.com/monitor/dix
Note: 2 year chart
AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 2
Dow Jones Post-Election Year Seasonal Averages (Composite 1900-2016 Data)

Buffett Indicator (Value Investing) – Source:http://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/buffett-indicator.php

*Important to Note that Our LOW INTEREST RATE environment may have shifted market valuation. Check Below

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 3

QQQ (TECH)
Daily Chart:

Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/OIwfbOvJ/

Thoughts on Overall Market (Overall Bullish until Mid-Late May – Lots of CHOP, Lots of ERs - Volatility):

I am currently expecting broad market to move up early this week before pulling down in the 2nd half of the week as we
are near my 1.618 fib extension on SPX. Based on post-election year seasonality the very start of May (few days) is
bullish and then we chop/grind most of the rest of the month with pullbacks and small moves up. If looking just at the
charts and ignoring seasonality, the markets are looking a little toppy here as we are starting to see a curved top, so I would
want to see some pullback. What is also a flag to me is that we had a huge spike in GEX but haven’t seen a sizable pullback
yet which is fine as usually we note that a pullback historically pans out over the next couple weeks after a GEX peak.
Beware of the old financial adage “Sell in May and Go Away” – May 5th would be my marker for that, but I do want to
note that post-election years have a more bullish-choppy May compared to other years where it is more bearish. Now
bias aside, let’s look at the indicators:

Points to Consider:
• MACD on SPX500 and QQQ are still red from last week with no signs of change. This leads me to believe we will
see some pullback this week. We still have lots of big ERs this week, so I also expect that there to be more CHOP
and volatility rather than an outright bearish pullback.
• RSI has cooled off from overbought territory but is still very high in the 60-70 range for both SPX and QQQ.
• DXY is now at 91.236 and is up from 90.382 the previous week meaning we moved up. This breaks a few weeks
downtrend and the large part of this move was made on April 30th (Fri). Typically, DXY trades inverse to the broad
market. This in combination with yield rates (below) moving up could be seen as a sign for market pullback.
• 10 Year Yield is at 1.622 and is up from 1.563 last week – expecting continued rise in yields. Increasing yields are
generally considered to be bearish signs for the market (think of it as opportunity cost). Based on these yields and
according to our chart on page 3 on interest rates, this means the market is actually fairly valued as yields are 1.5
std dev below normal – meaning that the stock markets are a good alternative for investors as yields are not
attractive.

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 4

 • The SEASONAX chart on the DOW JONES post-election years indicates we should be doing well up into summer
with a general strong uptrend. May is typically a bearish month, but during post-election years it is actually more
CHOP with a slight bullish uptick for most of the month than bearish. Typically the end of May will see the start of
a pullback into June where it would be ideal to buy the dip following the now well worn financial adage “Sell in
May and Go Away”.
• The BUFFETT indicator is showing that we are at peak valuation levels of market value vs GDP. It has not been
this high since the Internet Bubble. As it over 2 standard deviations above normal, and thus a highly unusual
situation. Overvalued/Undervalued for the markets are normal as markets are never a direct reflection of the
economy. Stimulus and Low Rates have caused this unusual valuation to occur and maybe it would be prudent
to examine this valuation with comparison to interest rates as mentioned a couple bullet points previously.
• The DIX a measure of Dark Pool which is where institutions/funds make their large transactions, and recent action
shows that there has been no significant change in smart money bias. DIX closed on Friday at 42.7% and we are
now at practically 2 months of being in the 40-45% range. My levels for confirmed bullishness is >45% on DIX
and we had a 47% print on DIX a month ago. As such we should be good to continue the trend at least til Mid-
May when I would expect seasonality to kick in and bring us for a small dip (<10%) for a June dip-buy opp.
• The GEX is a measure of Gamma Exposure, and when low it indicates higher volatility and more choppiness while
when high it indicates less volatility and possible incoming top on the market. GEX last made a new peak on 4/12.
Typically after GEX makes a peak like that the market has at least a small pullback within 2 – 4 weeks. While I am
still bullish on the markets, this is also a reflection that the markets are at ATH and at least a small pullback
should be expected this month – we will assess as we go but DIX is still bullish and GEX usually doesn’t pan out
until a couple weeks after the peak has been made. Currently DIX has already pulled back significantly from the
peak and is now at moderate levels. I feel that the markets will chop again this week with ERs depending on
results and expectations.

Therefore, because of the above reasons, I am neutral this week as opposed to last week’s neutral-bullish. While we had a
lot of our big tech tickers report their ERs last week, we still have many high-profile companies reporting this week and
thus CHOP and Volatility should still be expected.
Personally, I would recommend doing a spread if you plan
to play ERs. A Calendar Spread is excellent if you are more
neutral. A diagonal spread is also effective if you want a
safer directional play. I would lean bull side for a month
out contracts. Personally, I will be playing more neutral
strategies with slight bull bias – mostly with wider
butterfly spreads and some calendar spreads. I’m really
liking consumer staples right now. Semis (NVDA, AMD,
MU, etc) are also good to look at as the US plans to
increase production in that area to alleviate chip shortage
– sales are expected to do well for these companies in the
midst of the shortage and allow higher production
efficiency as they work at max capacity. This is just my
personal opinion and bias, so take the information I
provide and do your own DD to decide if you agree with it
or not. I personally advise playing spreads to minimize the
downside risk and maximize your probability of success at
this time as the volatile market can make playing single leg
plays much more emotionally difficult. Check out the
option seminars I have been hosting on twitch to learn
more about strategies you can use! (Video links can be
Figure 1 Sector 5 Day Performance Data from BarChart.com
found in #education-posts on Discord)

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 5

 3. BA (Boeing)
Daily Chart:

Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/EkSqLbJd/

Thoughts and Trade Idea: (Looks to be entering another consolidation cycle, ready for small pop; Bearish News)
BA is an aircraft manufacturer for airline companies and also generates revenue through military contracts. It’s a
company that has been hard hit with bad press for over a year ever since news of its airplanes crashing began. Then
along with COVID19 demand from airline companies for airplanes dropped to rock bottom lows as airlines saw reduced
travel. All that said, BA has been making a slow recovery and ‘unsteady’ recovery in price since Mar 2020. In more
recent news, BA has had its 737 MAX
grounded for the third time last month over
electrical issues. FAA is once again inspecting
what may have caused oversight in
production changes that have resulted in
these issues. All that said, the 737 MAX may
very well be the most well-studied and perhaps safest plane for years to come after all the scrutiny it has been under.
My personal opinion is that BA has already hit its lows, we know about the 737 MAX issues, investors have gotten used
to it, BA needs to improve, but it should be doing better from here. Additionally BA had a postive surprise on its ER for
the 1st quarter (4/28 report).

On the technical analysis side, BA is back at our previous structure’s trendline resistance. This is the 3rd time it is testing this
trendline and now it is looking like it is either forming a falling wedge or a descending triangle. Personally, I would lean bullish
and go with the falling wedge theory as BA looks to be repeating similar consolidation pattern as it did in Jun 2020 and Nov
2020. Indicators (RSI, MACD, PPO) are pointing out that this could be a decent dip buy area.

Trade Idea: My ideal bull entry for BA is on a bounce from trendline at ~234 for PT1 243 (purple trendline, closing price
before ER drop, PT2 249.80, and PT3 260 (falling wedge measured move). I would consider June 240c or do a calendar
spread 300c with the long contract for next year. For a bearish play, I would consider 225p for June on breakdown of
232 for a PT1 of 225, PT2 214, and PT3 200 (200 Daily SMA).

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 6

 4. INTC (Intel)
Daily Chart:

Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/y6qpoRYo/

Thoughts and Trade Idea: (POST-ER Dip – Potential Support Buy at Old Gap Fill Top)
INTC marks the 4th week in a row that we have reviewed a semiconductor chip related ticker (NVDA, AMD, and MU being the
previous three). INTC is a stock I haven’t liked to trade very much in the past year due to it trading in a channel between 43 to
70 and underperforming other companies in the sector such as AMD which has been eating away at INTC market share. INTC
has been struggling with chip shortage since 2018, and recently the CEO stated that they are attempting to ramp up
production to ease the supply issues for chips but will
likely take a couple years to fully ramp up capacity.
Additionally, Intel’s revenue has been shrinking quarter
after quarter and its turn-around plan doesn’t seem to be
up to the task of regaining market control. In its most
recent ER, INTC stated it expected revenue to drop by 10%
year over year for Q2. As for a turnaround possibility,
INTC faces strong competition in all its businesses with
AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL competing for data center market
and AMD for CPU market. Check out CPU market share in table.

On the technical analysis side however, I do want to play short term bull-side if we hold current support levels. INTC did a big
drop post-ER and that usually to me spells a dip-buy opportunity. Interestingly enough, INTC seems to have found support at
56.90, our previous gap fill top from the Q1 ER. For bearish bias, INTC did break down the daily 50 SMA which was acting as
support up until ER. All indicators on the chart (MACD, RSI, TTM, PPO) seem to indicate that this is a decent dip buy area. I
think there is a reasonable opportunity for INTC to at least test the gap fill area above. Otherwise play old gap to downside.

Trade Idea: My ideal bullish entry for INTC is a bounce from 57 as support for PT1 60 (gap fill bottom) and PT2 62.2 (gap fill
top). I would consider June calls for 60c (could also do a 60/65c debit spread). For a bearish play, I would look for a
breakdown of 57 and aim for 53.85 (200 Daily SMA, and old gap fill bottom).

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 7

 5. X (United States Steel Corp)
Daily Chart:

Chart Link: https://www.tradingview.com/x/nHwzzvjQ/

Thoughts and Trade Idea: (Bullish – Daily 50 SMA Bounce + Trendline Bounce – Infrastructure Spending Up)
X is US Steel Corp and has been in a downtrend since 2018 ($47.50/share) with occasional seasonal spikes and hitting its low
at $4.54 in March 2020. Since then, it has switched back to an
uptrend. What is the cause for the sudden change in a long-term
trend? There are a few reasons, but one of the most attractive
aspects of steel is that we have a lot of expectations on increased
infrastructure spending with a Biden presidency which would then
boost commodity prices used for projects. This is one of the major
reasons why X started rising so sharply since November when
election prelim results were coming in. So, what’s next? If the
economy is robust, then steel will no doubt be in high demand.
However, I do want to note that for seasonality, sell in May is very
much a thing for Steel (refer to chart on right).

On the technical analysis side, there are two things that make me
lean short term bullish on X. First, X bounced off the daily 50 SMA
which you can’t see because of item #2. Second, X bounced off the short-term trendline of a potential rising wedge. All of the
recent price action matches up closely with the seasonality chart. With that said based on seasonality we could see one more
uptick in early May before a sell-off which would match with the rising wedge theory. That said do keep in mind, that with
expected increase in infrastructure plans this may not pan out the same as before. Let’s just trade the charts.

Trade Idea: Ideal bull entry on X would be a bounce from trendline and Daily 50 SMA at 22 with PT1 24.84 and PT2
27.3. I would consider late May or early Jun calls for 25c or alternatively a 22c to 25c debit spread. For a bear play,
if we break down the Daily 50 SMA/Trendline at 21.5-22 then aim for 20 followed by 18.5 (longer term trendline).

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 8

Part 3 - Personal Watchlist Charts:
NFLX (Netflix)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/jXlJzHOH/
Thoughts and Trade Idea: NFLX was beaten down after ER. It has been a little over a week since then and it seems to have found
support at our trendline. One concerning factor is that it seems to be hugging the 200 Daily SMA (golden-rod line) and rejecting it
from the underside. However, once it pops through I think this will be a great gap fill opportunity. Play idea here is to take advantage
of post ER dip-buy opportunity. Trade Idea is to gap fill to 540 on a confirmed breakout over 516 (200 Daily SMA) over few weeks.
TWTR (Twitter)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/xVPTapx8/
Thoughts and Trade Idea: TWTR is like NFLX in that it had a major drop post ER. The best thing about this drop is that it took it
right back to our trendline support of the previous rising wedge pattern I had on TWTR. I would like to see TWTR hold this trendline
as support and then eventually trace back to the top trendline which would also complete gap fill. Trade idea here is a hold of 55-56
for a few days and if it starts moving up, we can play the gap fill to ~64 over a few weeks.

AN ANALYSIS BY TIMEHAWK XTRADES MEMBERS SELECT WEEKEND ANALYSIS REPORT 5-02-21 9