‘ong Now Yoru al, ope or Sen Sh Pa. De wes me nce 908206 Conti Unni P20 “epotnn pie Sb ty n re ea Cage Ue Pen A cag er fs bean ef rh ray. Lay of ogre Case enti queef cl eed fae ae fine Corn ISON so. ide ISBN Sito agree A QUANTITATIVE TOUR OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES Eidited by ANDREW GELMAN Cotumbe Universi JERONIMO CORTINA rent of Hoon CAMBRIDGE [UNIVERSITY PRESS‘PART \, POLITICAL SCIENCE ee ener eee ‘Chris Cameron15. What Is Political Science? Polis par ofvinulyany social intaction involving cooperation o coi, thus incding neractins within pate organizations ofc ple) slong ‘wi larger pli corics. Given he ptetally huge mai of pli, rfc pose to tak about “the pois of 1" where ean be anthing ‘nging for able manoesf animal “sci” But atough allo thse ae ‘ied by pola cet ose extent inthe Aeron easy “poi Science” goeally mens the sty of rather ecanacrhel ange of soc ostomens fling widin four dint and proesiomalizedfelde-Amencan Policy comparative pic, iterations laons and police hey ha, lita piso. Broadly speaking, the mademic fel of American politics i exactly what ae would expec: ple opin, voting clecion, leis, cours, an 30 ‘Whats new and inereing here? Wel something very pela and gute lsutiga happens fm Amerson pice (here hing Every dain the halls of Congres and evry night on pli alk shows, paris fom he ihe nde fight cule wa ith he nest pd vihousness of seorpioslcked ina borle. Bat forte most par he public dest nt. st stains, an docan'tcare In shor, pin elites have polarized idelogicaly ton were, ‘rir ize Rave n. Perbpe them interesting reset work Ame polis le el) doce ths seanze evelopmer explores why i ha om dow kno tht th pit between elites and mses as accued? The denen the nonplarzed public comes from public opinion pall. Two celetreeences ar DiMaggio. Evins and Bryson (1996) and Fim, ‘Abrams. anc Pope (2008). Busy, te evidence shows fat most Americans ‘eo fo be cents, ane thei opinions are no more enteme or polarized ody than thy were sever! decade ago (with one notable exception. opinions sb stern) igure 151 giver a rns ofthe gener evidene on polarization. The dt ‘ome tom the Nations Elcom Stag a sey conte every two or fur8 (Charles Cameron Frere 15.1, Anwar te Nan Eon Sins pn pol ea by poll sient in connection with national lectins. The survey sks the respondent o place themselves on Tyan sale with "Beng ‘rm eal aid “7” being extremely. concratve. Compare an eas Sinuson of self placements ay rm 1972 with a ltr one = sy. om 200.1 you ddr’ know which diebuton conespnded fo 172 and which fone 1 200, woud you be able t puss? There litle mote polation mere people plac thse st he envemes eri te wie eaeson) sore recent years, Bua k mach at Yo th expe! fom the dicssion a ae wae inthe moi ‘What about plical eit? Messing the ideology of ees is wiki, bt one ay fo gta the guston i 10 infer the deloy of canes ber — ntl eis, suc a presidents, Supreme Court jute, gover and se lepstors~th thi vl eal wing. AL one Fes his cetee an Be Steerer: May itr ups give congesmembers a scre Rated 90 What Poll Sclnce? 28 ’ os for 5 5 £ Fipwe 182. dela polit nthe Hose Sete, 179-200, Ade on bow frequently hey vote the “ight” way, acu othe grup. So senator sho receves a sore af A from he itera! American for Dera Acton Imo bert han one wo esehen a scare of 0. oli sits have ete thi spl isa by okie mimeo sealing tecnigus to stay all cal woes inthe Howse apd Soa The esta cology sess ean be ied doe arose congeat and Between the Hose Senate by aking advange of the fat that some congresses see fot ‘lip toms and sere move fay the Howe tthe Sore, Then, pon scree fo individ congrssmembes. one cm calle the score of the merase Republican and he were Deverat(e whatever the mae pics weet the lume) Te distance petween he two atcage pany mentee fers Spl an Juve measue of polrnatn nrs the prs. ‘one calculates hs score, wat des sh To se, ace t Figure 18.2.1 plays hisreasure of rss pry pzaton wing the et widely eployed ‘ology sore Poole nd Rowta's NOMINATE sores One cou oe the few to strate a pliealhisory af te Unied Stes Bu us on he sen ‘IF of te sees. You wil cht polarization wae eaiey high the me ‘the Civil War and subsequently peaked ring the EBSD or 190s ped huge ‘social change and socal stein the Unt Stes, Pom about 190 to at 1950, plrzaton teaity destined and remned tow taut he 1950 and 1960s Batten eroseparty plazation hee oick up nd etic Wo 8 9 steadily forte nent ne dca. present polarization in Congest abot the sume evel ax hfe the Cv Wor ‘This sal quite ineresting td extremely unseen or America pois. ‘But rate tam pursue the question. forte mores te also pom ot he(Charles Cameron frestm Hows Rago Benoney (eee) ‘compra ta 87 US staggering amour of eft behind Figures 15.1 and 152: Thosands of people ‘see imeriewed with an iets gueston, ang saitaly repeernve Spies. over decades and handed of thos lel ots were ated and amlyed sng sophinicned aia! tshigues, Bath of tes sraphs "epee an enormous mvesinet in social scene bythe Amen goverment Su by my schlne COMPARATIVE POLITICS Speci in comparative poles inthe United Stas stay the pots of tunis ther tat te Une Stator An example toi ots me ee Sty of democrat tanston: Wht caer counts to came tnd sy. ‘emocrcis? A long-andingsnever hard onthe apart ak ewes ‘sal ond democracy: If nur bores ch enough, betes demo ‘ae. Figue 155 shows te postive corelaton between gos dame poet Ge) pe capi adjusted Tor ination. Hy peng tthe 1987 oll and Seer sere fom Frm Hose wah is this rises more questions than answers. Does gromih ease lmoray or derocacy growth? (Ox op # more pei. ta whl exe cs roa democrat what extent ds dear afer? ‘Than eso ha eau asap noe esto othe her) thoes tem ancy, Tso ge oman canteens gine What Is Potical Science? an some reltnshipBtwsen wath and demoeriy, hy sul hse? An! re the ores ht encourage trnstone 19cm) ie ae nes a pov none ot of drmsracy” At east othe ast sce there as been sorting ofa dete. A xan ining democratic maines i 135 cours for 19591 108), roe and [mong (997) init tat ewnomie development docs not nseeaiy igget ‘easton to democracy: Rate, they suggest asees help sian dmae ste ‘regimes once they car ino enisence We thu se a apptentrhnship ke tia in Flge 18: bts simpy bem ely counted ein mera if they eve bacome deocr Bors and Stokes (2003) dispute the claim. Tei empirical stacey is to ‘ted the date eid oben hm he mince cetary ou ‘Work War, These aos st hat ecenomi growth oe gaa amperes ‘They show ta in mere eee deadee nome costes that dvloped et ‘retineddetatosips would be expected derralize very guy. The relationship bene economic devclopmon an democtcy reals ¢ ‘epic of stv iesigation. Clery de reals have important implications fo ae ste ‘he fied of imal reins foeuses on pita relations between cout tre The archetypal examples ate wae and trade. Rect mcr has ‘ghts and iteration] law have been scvely suo! tel the met Interesting and potealy congue development as been the et of Be sora donne pase, ‘The base ea hat demoeracin ar much es ily Fgh wars asi ie aneherthn gut herpes of sate teri dicts, momar: die): So.a wor demecaces wouls ea word peace the iinet ot ‘ne of hunni’ etm reams By inpicton. «pn: gal forthe forcign rly ofdemoerais ie the Ua Sates shoud (perhaps eo supp apc seoercis and enceurage dtatorhpe out democracis. Doig so makes the mols soe fr dmoercy, ‘he ide of s demecratc peace is exterelycontetous within the eld ‘atrial elon: One eso eats othe, Wiican eae, he oF hemos inet tert meer hs been “ett made inwhien the competitive presses sarong athe nero eve the the domes cts of eau dont ater demerit, ‘od monarchist al behave vee les the sate way or hey o der The ea of the democratic peace tus Tes in te fae fandaena serpin held by mary ofthe Gels Ieadingsubries (Given the subject's inns interes levine fr fran pc. and theo retical te, you wl arly be suri f earn ta the Mtoe oe Jom ose pee is he A Handy review atl Ray (1098) A ae hen ofan Charles Cameron ise ae rm questions. The sx empiric tr hat emocrcies te rmre pact thak ondemraces pil wah espet eather” The Steen thor tas why "Yow might shin iis easy tell femora ate es waite than now dnoerscies: J aly the war by regime type an perfor a simple tte test aya est BA you tink aoa fr even ile whe youl se hat wh seems sie a Fst mst e rather ic prac Fis what do we meat by “war Shuld we pla wa? How many bate dais does i ake bere we call someting wr (a fequemy sed defn requires 00 bale dats? What tine period shuld we ve (fen Tate on)? The spi optics of ttlising the dis wil be formidble ‘Sscod, wha do we mean by "dencray? How extnsve mt he archie be before we calla county a demoeray? Was hnccent conan Bai 8 eocracy? fascia allows slavery, 8 democtcy? Was Peele Athen "knocrcy? Ine conse of decry at «sent a Wl lee "mocrt-ess do We cue nary a &domaacy for Purpose of the Se thd problem ivelves staal rth athe en of coury.gear "iyad,” War invelyes relontip tween two sates fe any gen ar thee is 2 ceran number of soutien fe work and each ay neat (enzae in war with another In pots i bee ae m sen Thee a Eay= Mlpossble dyate (pie of counties). With a sabe namber of oun. th nnker of dyads ea be semen: Many ofthe epic sues a ths aes exomive someting on the ort fa quart of min dye OF urs, mos dyad are nme el war Mongol vers Ubu ‘Tibet vera aba and eon Wh i esoable way a cra wate ‘tween demneney Ads verte sendemocrcy ads taking two seu he any of war aad he abr ality of mos yada? ‘By the tin people agus thomsees ita exhaustion over thse questions, hee may no he amin lesb an empincl finding Infact thoysh, most amy are ta he ined far among democracies om, an cre Toner fan that among nondomocracier an between democracies da semoeracis Th 2 tring empire Sdn ‘Of cous. he fining ould be spurious. Por xs as argued by Farber sd Gow (685 my the an aac of he Cold War (oer dare). "ght be hat pence causes denocrsyrthr tan denna ening peace ight be hat some her fico cane bth peace and demacrey (Hie comer roses). Gating seus about he endagne a remes eds the de ‘ion of Hnsumeail varable studs sear © Asenage, Janson. ad Robinsons (2003) study of emocrcy an eeonomic sow Sill the ding sre the question roman: wh? Are democracies just rer tan nondsmoeci or teat eed hae wa valves (be ten™ angurei? Are the sons of waft higher for demncraaly coed ff raking them ore cluctan o engage the “pal suival™ pot) Are democracies mre econeialy interdependent ad hus mare feet ow “up profit wading partner? Ave democratic govemimeas, mote What Poel Scene? a tenspret so hat war (ef came sefomation) becomes ls ikl? Al tex eds fave a degre of puihiy and have boy (and we) ender ea ‘ton POLITICAL THEORY ‘The fosnh sb of political seen, plc theo: examine the nomatve sineasions of ples for example, what the ew fp af goverment (a hat do we men by “hes mytay)? I wont spend ch te en Tis Nee Iatvey oie sel. Hover sch odin een apes Sapiro 2005) CONNECTIONS 0 OTHER SOCIAL SCIENCES Topics fines to pic seats often oveip wih ler fis An example 5 the vty of rai atts in the Unted Sel, Hyon sk pope on surveys gusto abate thei answers ao ee an yon ae and Spiro 1002), Thee ae soe lng survey guess he Heapear. fy ake the ita ic ae th toe has fon seman American racial atid Second i you lnk a ving scores Conges dai, ‘the twetth cent using dimers anal fh the mot pr ye ed Peo ‘mensions the eam inersion a the cal dimension. Achy. Jo ‘ould find setbem Demras wo were itera an scones tte fe Noy ‘insenatine on ial sus. Those tho nono ne mae rls olga none: Ons way took hs ing yt ace has ects cmp ant andl economics. Anote ayt lok ats ay tl ace end conome have become so stn Yo bere os. wll ply be he eve sono cosets wil ppse ffimatine action wile many bees wil ‘pon ithe rest Reng a sm of ieokakal polation frail ates $5 onthe one land thee a gop of ptt! peeps who my tat “Anersrs afsil nemlly st bt hat hey clo trac in come loci and tha te emsratves rn at cit a they yao ha bel by rear o economic aunts. When somone sim epee toa ‘tne ston bane Tim i oro xy of opera. hasnt rally 9 store of boa aud but jst cover rc Fo eb perspete, ou cau ay, “This is momame. Thee no canon ace, a ‘pment in fier oF eq opperunsy aso on mer ars cere" TR tnd ‘nolof tious pnipledobjectin an are hl people hve beer les ‘act Pll syholgsts become very ented abot th. The ify brea ‘sue ht woud protaly be imposible ever ope the sce) or ie ‘rome of thee argumens abut alimatine acon. Forts ease, ane ‘met lly degen moan icloie ale betwen to beers The queion sil reais: Are Americans cally boeing les ai ae hey nt leaking tir raism under nev guises? There re evs oats fensieatons hee and i's tought decide wh has ts bl argmet, By “ormatve cnsrton” I simpy ean the vale y whi one might kea (Chares Cameron ‘Thess also Bes some irs experimental work with di inhi ‘cating peal propre valet of leon nos ss gent end Kinder 1987) The videos show the same ores Bt vary the sie of he acs The subjects of he experiment ate asked queton Before and se oe tet ssipnse othe video. The fading i so of priming aceon et be. This experimental method appears promising an ay seo naer some oF the questions abot how Amenan fel aot race. The have also Ben sane ‘eys tat wee leery desined 1 et people f el the expetmener ings they normally don't want to sy. By desing the guetoonares prope he exer ange exmats i the paegate of the percentage oF topos ‘rho not sing cad So, there hve ben vation insure eee nt ase ben gute ntresing ROLE OF QUANTITATIVE METHODS Qamiatne daa ard methods hve este cea the sud of Ameren ‘ites canpanthe pais, and teratoma aatens. My te, peas ‘cumpl witch al involve guatnivemehad nd dat ae fly repesenatne ‘of at deal of wor in plea! cence Quantative thd te eleva xen to poll tiny. Pecan pla! pimp ate Icenngy Inte aling el pois athe fan dbs sow imagnry word ht eal never xis (Somes his se of pial piloephy cal -erpirealdonoeaie theo) T dont want wo exagerae, tau In most pola or. the oly ru you'll dare on he cares ote pages, But oy, ome Can't be ¢ ‘rom sient of American poli compe polis a rasa et toes witout a days of ity ‘a quite meted The inpoance oF ‘quniaive mets chen comes sa shock to fstyenr pds ses whe iscver tte undegrtunte cores ats po ef someying Whee icine ely ike On he ober nd fora te angi aea seh 1 phology celgy. a eters, the srt of pola sem a we ‘sy mig se sxe teary (ce Chapter 3), whic is quaiane i ison Way ‘bt dierent or statis! mdling sd dar ais: “hoes snd eon why quntaive da ad mets aes porta n posal iil sen: Eidnee mats Wha tc o poliy, pu re “ile oyu opin bu et source ft And iyo cre ba a, ou rally gravis fo uta a, Given» mnt, you ca argon wheter italy menes wha ue meres If myo ea wk Segoe the !nesue and sow oer people why he new meas sete inen © grap umber pu cn deploy amily poet tas fing ral at ‘ebods developed oer handed of yearby mio he bites pope whore ‘er ive tks Peas pa Peace el i tok the Wig res Duda alae. bu even an average pasen ca, wth suficie ting My lane or moet the pit, we sail tele and use em pty wel, Tn ‘her peoplecan check yur findings for thems ee whet yee mada ssale.caypeated wht youve dicoverd or mised meting Epona estas bexase pois i 50 canto, rete af argumentation nah igh nyreny an sy verity a exremay acne What fe Poteal Sclnce? ais shout polis even same stan the bet Lin of evidence. A ‘efeshing aspect of entrporny sean poli sen ss pemess many life kins of cvidens: qualtstve, hone. ebmopmic. and Inrapectv as wel as rune And ths srl a geod tig Stl, pola ‘cits hs invested enormous effets bung pale dace any the subj canal tthe diipline,sch ax able pion, clone and vung Iepsttve ol el vtes sper of govcrenons end the word ame ght Isr. the frequency ad seveey of wary, and many, nay tir tp I ou have a computer connected to tho Wed. you can ascst sch of hit dan insanely at Zero mapa co. I ain, electing ew data hs vet eon cheaper ~although nso stscs st so eat anymore ft example sample sey. where espn es hve ail dina ove the eae Americans have become sued wth survey fal eo, In ain. otal scents re nereaengly steve othe alte ofp tedional data for exarple fom laboratory and eld experiments As te ‘sees of ot tah row th cot cling new data, an the ‘openness © nonrational data nrese. the reach of uaraive poli nce has expanded remendovsy- I tr, we ae Heng inthe golden age of ‘aminive pli scene. str anything disinetive about he quantities poli cena use or the way dy se the? Basil. ma" Quantatie da nd techies ae ental o eotermoranyplitcll science, bat the meade we ane Me alo tpcable fo" and ate ofon derived fan ae elds Cramps nse ‘Reesion mai reper soy mathing (sed byststicies), nsromena ‘arbles and ss for slection bas fed by ctmomits) network model (ised by silos. and messrerent and scaling model sed Wy psholo- ‘B80 The applications of hese mth 0 pois! enc poss ate on Fanovativ, but the Basie seuss ofthe adel ilar erst the tot ‘On the oer tnd, do hak ta polical sca dese ret rei for thee epenses to Wenig: invented cet, t th seme, pola seen the mugpies ofthe soil scene lay’ onthe eo for ethos! evelcpments howe and quick to eal the fr tet on purposes. Th ‘openness o new mcd Weis: a sancmes enka terse oF tive abet new methods I ls cena want sly ata fa meh But does have the great vitae oF meeting Rept fesse ‘icitement an growth ine quasiave plied cine The perpetually morn frontir means tht whole new Te of ng saleny Boome sees 1 3 oj lasing new sls and apphing er in novel ways youl Sad ‘tae pole! sence emcd fa ORGANIZATION OF CHAPTERS 15 T0 17 Before geting w the detailed example, I wil ie dss he telaontp between tory aod evdenee in polite sinc. fel pisos olged to pres this materials to elton Hel216 CChares Cameron ‘Then inthe following wo ehaptar we wll examine in dei an analysis of an eopicalquzle T posed for several year cancer the plies of Supreme Cou omimors. Ulntly. the pul oles te step se oF ‘eandls and oer ad news snk naming I ake you tough hs escrch ‘ovahiy the way Hasty amfldod We ue lea squares rearestn, local ‘ightd repesin, lt ana ers des soning Poon resession, ‘usm ikcliond estimation, and agate bina rpesn wel ‘some nresngechmigues for atalying dt ily sing condor pos The data wed in hee rectne are publicly aval, s0 you on dood the 1d explore he more ono i if ou wa to HOW POLITICAL SCIENCE WORKS Poll sence as ben called “ow jis” Thee i wy in which his ‘qp captres something portant shou the el. ut the sso a which tw misrepresents Lets nar wih the way nhc poll ene ‘lly & Sow jouralsm and th lo tof the some ways ta Facts, Bounds, and Causal Meshanisns A big pat of pola scene is eablhing ats by otlesing semi ev ene and sing he Fs to pu bound on the vee of sia eto Learaing the fete inportane ocase it rls ow lou Cis tase on “what ‘rec knows” hu it actly tse, Heath anced, and ter types of jot evince Making inert or xara cas asd on egy eres Ins sbiqatous races m plc! dine (Vou tty have nocd ti) Se, ‘imply covering th fac” ptng ome bounds eo wh you can lah ‘ght ice, ery all endestor a th ve To a he fst plead ‘ince (ihe all social sects) does resemble jomaism. But beens we fmphasze sate evidence, whih or takes tne wo Elles i How Bt exablshing fs an bounds is jut he Reining Once you fave some ‘ap of wt youre dealing with hei natural rv fog yond meets toask "why" ausons. The emphasis the feo explng th Fas ines fetal mechan "appreciate hat "eal mechani” hs the lanky sound of aca since Jargon But I hve to say that th 2 pice of son Vike The de hat Be Prats 6 conveys: Wea ireved in sothing lee tan natal Frakes aren't ay mature i aca sence ast people maling sesso and ing ole the ver Bit ven Here are an natal I things eet comply raom. Thre is lage to campaigning foros, ‘etn in egsures, decng bareveracesoffeng and aeceping Sake, ‘nang fvoatins al ining wrx, and scr. Noting Is determine Bot ‘hg fen happen fra reason a easton aerge, The eats chanics are Ue ie expe ving the erp rau, 1s Biking in ems of etal mechani tha igus pots se ns fom pola oral, t east my opinion Tha ts ote sass What Ptiiea Sle g e % Pa 154. Reston pce among the ning reeson ncch a inthe US Hse of grr (000 200, and meteor pe thse ars aor nding seater othe ‘one tnd, and ning chal about then. he other Rate, te a oF leaking teeth the sefce toy to ont the lee of has tapering ‘tus he. On this account, De Tocgucil and Madan were at pole seas which ses rit me ave been ephisizig the w-alled postive sde ofthe eestor ~ fe, bound od casa mechanisms Bu ts poi oes the oat evasive side a wl. Or time, ne ses the eomanty of ple sens sbsessing ve diferent quetins. A quesien etches om an a sabing endless ‘team af ails Nows owt. many dealing with aan sal tee or ‘ten vial pars ofthe qusion thie fads beha ior? Not rely erase ‘met ial th guests that realy rah people hve a ig tomate Semmpanent. Al the obsessive conor oer mesure rus th ip eo "cl techigu, thn. comes fom a Gate to get ¥ ght” heen the a Imatrs for burning noative suction ‘etme isa the anurans trey, From 1980 to 20, what pecntage of incumbent congrenmener ning for een Won Be faces! Nov could ge you sry autor fom sy, 25% SBP an you igh Irlive me The acta answers 86% for restr nd 93% fr wprescalinen These uber appear que high Cerainly x wold in nhice most con: ipesnembers reper win resection fe differen word fom one in whith Ist ase reeton L's look ore clsey athe congreshelreceton data. Fig 184 shows tat election ts in the House of Reprsentutves really ae igh an always28 CChares Cameron have on eat forthe pst entry. Safe Ra he la tat American emery ling spa beste cangesembas dont have to wey aout tcletion we Kn tat me sol e skid beat th sas, Amaia mercy fas hon fling ast fr 1008 or more L's think a lie hae about that ih rate Hose member mst get rele every two eas. Fo a congressmenber tot fra dae shih Sess Wo Bean uteseableanbiton fr sarcoe who nies a cae Petincs~ her she hast win fie elec sa ow. Sopot the shane twining nach cat WP. Then the chee of aking a deeale 197=139~ ner wor er than 0-0 ba ot hope an. rom thi pt Spec. conser who Wars a esol cance of sing ont eo ers Fran ape ens ftir bey nes wht appease an ‘stonomilfesection re Thi ra exam of what fay Bounding ‘ec pheoameon (Tis als only an printing, Boa eal ‘letos ar nt depends evens Some Onrexmerbes hase eel T's prtaiy of retest while fr ethene poi in cls 8M ant congessneniers nthe sti fypely do met have hg carers) ‘Now les tok t Fg 1S agin. Note the bpp dau 1930, What went on here? The ovis etlanation inves sock marke eh and he ‘Great Deprenion- Cold here Be astm ainshy between congressional ‘evecton rater and econome pero! That woud be ces if te cus sugges ht comreemenbcre mi have an insentve nao week the econ Sond not the wa the tie aise apes ove su Rls one fire sou! I980 an oe afer. Releton rater spear 10 jmp fn abt 85% ‘out 98% To conten ti tion, a's eile ie ers analysis Tine sisal fave devced “arta ek ests ox or Sb tons ie this (Haren 200) The basi fe to etn one sees models ‘evan afc ypthesized break an thn compe th estate parame to se ithe afevence i more than could he expsined by chance, Recent ‘sanees allow yout dete breaks without shin thc lation beforehand Performing ich est (he Zivot and Andrews [1993 structural teak est which isavaibe in Shae ind wrong evden of permanent hit the tne ‘eres (tsa sipnian athe 1% leven 986 So the pater Wes Oy ‘Sehaling he dt secs ey to exe ‘Why shoul thee be suctral beak afte sod Wold War with higher rection mts ar the ar? Maybe pt te answer noes beet marae ‘nem of the seonony ~ pre the rate wen up because the gvermen unt ‘Sood ee owt vol economies Bu ht gh ot ete ete so. ‘nother abios ference bine andar Worls Wa I the growth of ovement. Btwoon the Great Depression ad World War lhe fl gov ‘Samet got much, mach rer Thi has le ame shoes surges at eon ssmenbers ws the oppunies ered by arginine bureaucracy fo Detforn ebudsen scree fo thir content ates ke fing st Seca Seunty checks, cling with poblen vlsingbonigton, the eral evene Src and of In trm mh serves ete 1p cometh besos some vot and Ihe congress penal ve ‘What I oltia Sten? 29 This hes dears of plait ifyou hate ha any experience working for aconpressrerber or hag ot in his rer fe, Marco hase) ini tuck heeause sus that congresmerer ad ion rd gong Ba, congessmember got ele By ging ates the bg goverment hey wanted: then id even Bete By Alpin votre et the problems cence by bi vere 1 you wat co pursue these ides, you mig chek out Jcabuo (2003) rin and Nol (1978) apd Cain ert and Prin (190), Bat yp ue otto analyze conpesonl lesion rates erse Reh fo show he ‘movement from (I) aeguig 2 acto auck pumalisn, to 2) revewing ‘static evidence and estblahing bounds (lw journal) to (3) asing "wy" questions, trying tose out what eases st ad thinking ints OF cous mocha ei enh ‘One can~ and! would agus, shuld — ake ths example even fink. Sp pos We could et same god deat why cnn resection ates oth the may they do. We ean now ake Would making eectons moe compete scaly icease demacraticssnurtabty? Hi the vexetion rts ave 50 hish Tecwuse congressman werk franly {0 eve people what they a hosting campeon might at cen accounaiy wey mach, Bi as lars we gh rates o pene exami pois or Pano ares ropes ‘geste electoral competition might wll oe aes. Ad isa bow can Ie make elections mae campsite? In eter werd, we canst to tk ho smavey one" what” quinn. "ind dts ike his ena senting, but se pel of my agunmance find them att rng a last whe the dn core fm he nied Sates. For some reason, they es on example om oar the wate Set tne jst rete another example La’ sr th atl question What Fr entge oF votes cast naoal elections in Gray's Wer peiog wee cst infer ofthe Naso ter anideocrtc pare? The anewer i 8 fo the Nazi Pay and 17% forthe Commun Party of Gamay nthe ehh Gen Feel Eketon on November 21,193. and for be Nai Par and 12 fer he ConmanistPany of Geemany nthe ith Geman Fedral Election on “March 8, 983 la other wor lg portion fhe sett did a upon tmidemocrtc paris This Toctldsugpes 9 very lien world fom one in which an ene whetming major of the Geman public votod forthe Navi Knowing this Facto might en a to ak a question reaurngscmate st: When ene raies pens, bow much sapper forthe enema fres here the Pablc 3 age? This question has 2 Yea nomtvepanch, becuse anther ‘ay of king wheter mass eects ante asl ih ery. A he Irina certs cane tsed andthe proc = antdemocrt his, hw ‘ave protest denpeazy fom i lie cnemice pou Hd these qusions intresting. you can ar more Bante (2003) ‘An ieresting ested question. peep ling cose to psycholgy or history ‘han pial sciee, ew sesh conan tli hat the Nar to int ‘deere lation Peas this (se) bet «pp Beau ads an ‘neresing sory anda paradox” of Semocracy © What should bs done anx0 (Chares Cameron snide arty wins in a democratic ection -o ope it simpy arse froma misndesanding of fil wings Theory Petaps you've ately discrete sre Id setup n my desrpon of esech taj the ne ue the facto he ea ide none tvslutin ap pssblyprexripive desig an he mile anal mechan te theory, Tha fics to thay to nomave valunien preston I hit framewor, he eel aboration of oul mechs the eon = he key ‘ponent connecting dts to pact reconnendaions This empha on theory andthe wings 16 concede primacy. mas poll sence gue cet Fa st jualin, Theory an en ef, we 0 mar tan baa rp ‘ne wans tery base one want to ake see o's mount of bate ft {on the on hand) and agus normative evsatons ad ply or esin pre ‘epton (on he oe. From tis perspective noting mre patel he = ‘so toy, But what's a pood thor? ua ht pase a iit were obvious what aes 8 theory goed. Unfoaty, en As aly a8 may saund fo mo soeal Siem, the proper stendard for erating thee ys tempers tay depres fit years ag, orf palin ei tending he big national convention went arn! wearing Ite colored baton oshw i allegnce to one ide othe other i he "hey wa sof ie the Ch. belies nd Gulp inthe Mile Agcr~ or, perape | ud sy ike Mi a the calor war aca sumer camp. One sold ets tug out af sown poole ehanng this way if prosionl advo and star won ed ep Which courses why tinge get so heated. ‘This i noc the tne or pice wo povide a eile exegesis of pole! se: «ery was ls, am tardy sour! pny. Bat peo ove cemoves, ‘oe jist ech ets conus, hve suggested th inthe al of guataivetechiqes pola ‘tare the maps fies acicnees, This tue fer thoy wel Iy le classe wes f polite sess fom the 1950 tnd 196 you fad hat thir athors borowed heavily Fem ecology and socal pein. Mere ‘ect, poltical seat have bowed hey fom he heres ccocs ‘nd cognitive prjeholgy. Some of this shi imvalvesheepng up wih Sevens it ther Mes, But any pail ser sos comple se 1p move fom vague. ai bee sl Ut T suceae with cg) Yo & more ‘heon-toed aproch an Taocite mre wth eseronice Bascal hese politcal scents want bi werk wo have stony microfemdtian ey wa he lope of hei arpumentsto Be sigh a ponte and hey mate eid ey ‘ef be els ed thou (which, tr, demands clear the) Tas sounds fin in the abst, but if you push relly had 98 song ‘ncofbunors. gh Inge, nd earthen sou cn nd ep nse spn Pics Ove lass "atonal hae they" which they tal bt ot oF "ctl impure pasa formal talon. Te taal mpl What I Poles Science? m "ht many people apech politics sume. tha i they hve sorcthing "ey wan fom pots ud they go abut geting na iy seme wn. The ‘ery slot boat what pope nan fom pois ea fl ina 2 way ya want (ling Teng ood about youre ome Youve oblietions)The tbaow includes decison They, tndent oncropave me ther, evlutonary zane her. sen bsed modling also os ot ‘man ols, Te ate incoet to see rational choice thoy a8 hegemonic in pote! science, the way it uly 1s ecaeonen. Bt it te singe mow hese Shereical movement and well reese it all four elds especialy American pls Not suprisingly. ax provoke «bikie abd i fo is appearance i ae eat 19605). ‘The tells takes two fre The ft somes fom people who ae not ‘pps theory in her itm pracice. Thou sis ar fpeally very fc view, skepialabout he emia each ofa thee fon, ad si to pure they asa waste time, Smctnes they ae ie gama work, Reese they ae sspcou of generation nay form. (Thien to be the cis in comparative plies and eration! restos) Ts. te eek ‘end 10 fiver wort th is historical or serantpologca nse Bu some ‘mes the “hostile in pate” crc re vet) uae ete, bs mob xchisivey inactive fashion This ts ob tec in American police for ample Members ofthe Inter soup ‘pial finer the ocr acca paycho- Tope me of wok ‘The ssn soup of eis ae no just opposed atonal choice ther in rate: hey ae oppo in ther. To sx whee they ate coming rm ll ‘ha old qu toute diene between comune “Coons ixatout hon people ma choices; ile isabout om thy tae no hes ‘make” you think abot his yu ean se that te pins of view he vali. One one an, people ae consanty making ches nclying oes hey see ‘port. Undestndng what they ae ding, ae ty perce fe ses ‘ort On the cera or nr ae severe coneiod by our economie ‘uation. ur andes fhe worl, we scolar a ‘ow ether people pers us Fre this pepsi, the room fo flv ‘ices is eavely niente irene pr is whe the conaina ome fom and ho they henge "Yau cn ke any of ise pions atonal chic, inductor. socio consti and argue foro apis ne abc ake 8 seemingly convincing ease, Well of eo! Othersie, bight poorest hold 0 them. In this ses, the theory was stony ese aut ie Uheology oF lieray eriesm. © et tt has ot gone armed. Bat roa seins thea or Tit eit oa eat Font eH shoal be Te mee ‘ext of methdolagial pon Does it ier th pons? neces won can use the eas wo reduce rally conpeling veil scene, what they ell “tiller aps in Sion Valoy you cn. wilt te Ifyou cat en "he sound of angels dancing on pin ecane deanna. In the exapies wel puri. | will employ the alias) coi apeoach ents wl ask Why are people ding is? nd the answers Tee opm (Charos Cameron ‘apically ave the fem: They a a asm, the thy were tying 10 get smahing, and this ajpeared wo be prof way fo i Vou can dee or Yyoursel whete this approach sens metodlopily suse i thee case. American Poies. “The Demacras will win eeston if they sand for someting. They shoud get moderates and coacentte on gg ut he ase” The Republicans ave lth way ecase thy Pave abandoned ‘her conserve picpks" Pays you have heard on o bth of hss tlems, Design a reserh sate tht wool! provide bard quite ev fence on seer the cline tus o fle 2. Amencon Poise ht ok Whats the Mater with Kanes? (200, outst Thoms Fen chains tet to Republican Pty hs, Ed ¢ ‘ian politea contin by canning lower middle-class Americans vote agin heir ove comemicitres in an ef fo defend ional tural vas egies ada ical ie, Har lower male clas whites ‘Shandoned the Democaie Party de oa colt over values! I ths tg ‘mem comet or ici How could you tll) Dari the dt and he Stee mang you wad nee o eve the argon. Hn. Aer you hve tought abou hs ir awh, fok a Bals C206) and he accom panyngescusion in he Duster Journal of Pala! Scene 3. Gamoraie Polis, De eed psa nition rs peng done rower bing poo poll tions? Cone hs guesion Fem fe Perspective of rumen variables. Vou may end overeat seston In ovr sities tbo. afer you have thought abou for 2 whl rad ‘cma ohana Robinson (2002), How does ter ale she out stinking? “4 Inwomaonl lations. Coes peace case demoeriey of des democracy se peace? Ain css ths gestion frm nstvvenal are’ Peipesive and ligt of Acemopl tl (202),