Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Volume 12, Issue 6, June 2021, pp. 310-321, Article ID: IJM_12_06_027
Available online at https://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJM?Volume=12&Issue=6
ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510
DOI: 10.34218/IJM.12.6.2021.027
Rabia Ayyub
MS Scholar at Department of Economics,
University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.
Waqas Younis
Lecturer at Department of Economics,
University of Kotli Azad Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan.
ABSTRACT
The current study was designed with the purpose to measure the impact of financial
market on Pakistan’s economic growth taking into consideration the time series data
ranging from 1980 to 2018. Variable used in this study are financial development,
banking sector development, foreign direct investment, and the secondary school
enrollment. This study describes three independent and one dependent variable,
secondary school enrolment has been used as control variable. The statistical tools
implied for the measurement of variables and deduct results were correlation analysis,
Unit root, ADF, co-integration test, ordinary least square regression. Vector Error
correction model has been used to check the long run relationships among the studied
variables. This study concludes that financial development and banking sector credit
has significant and positive impact on economic growth. The foreign direct investment
insignificant impact (in short run) on economic growth of Pakistan. The study also
present implications for policy makers as well as future researchers.
Key words: Financial Markets, Economic Growth, Banking Sector Development, X
Foreign Direct Investment, Bank Credit
Cite this Article: Sabahat Akram, Rabia Ayyub, Waqas Younis, Muhammad Waseem
Shahzad, Faheem Ghazanfar, and Muhammad Saim Hashmi, Analyzing the Impact of
Financial Market on Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan, International Journal
of Management (IJM), 12(6), 2021, pp. 310-321.
https://iaeme.com/Home/issue/IJM?Volume=12&Issue=6
1. INTRODUCTION
The relationship between financial markets and economic growth and development has been a
matter of debate in last decade especially with reference to the less developed and developing
countries. The banking sector play an important role in development of market and creation for
most profitable investment opportunities. Financial markets are not, however, always
sufficiently liquid and, because of substantially fixed securities, some, particularly small and
medium companies, cannot compete. A specialized market is a form of financial capital channel
from excess entities into deficit entities solely to carry out economic activities (Jalloh, 2009;
Purewal & Haini, 2021b). Financial markets in this regard include all financial institutions,
banks and other financial firms providing financial resources to organizations needing financing
for financial activities. Financial system of any economy is important as it provides basis for
the continuous rearrangement of financial resources to promote economic growth. Banking
sector holds pivotal position in financial markets. In fact, in case of developing countries
financial markets mainly consist of only banking sector and non-banking sector has only a small
share of financial markets. Therefore, banking sector play an important role for development
of market and creation of most profitable investment opportunities in these countries (Haini,
2021; Purewal & Haini, 2021a).
Financial markets and resources are necessary for the rapid growth of every economy
through efficient financial intermediation (Kihombo et al., 2021; Sulaiman et al., 2015b). These
financial markets like banks play a significant role in economic growth by embarking several
activities (Aziakpono, 2005; Ünvan & Yakubu, 2020). They serve as a medium for transferring
financial resources from surplus to deficit economic units. They ensure sufficient liquidity by
helping in maturity transformation. Furthermore, they provide mechanisms for diversification
and risk taking by ensuring risk management.
According to Agbada and Osuji (2013), efficient financial markets give rise to lively
financial system by improving employment and level of income. Greenwood and Jovanovic
(1990) argued that individuals can contribute to economic wellbeing through financial markets.
Furthermore, Pagano (1993) and Fry (1980) investigated those financial markets give rise to
economic growth. Increase in savings results in more investments which ultimately give rise to
capital formation rate with a positive influence on economic growth. Sometimes finance can
hinder economic growth activity. King and Levine (1994) investigated that sometimes
governments impose certain constraints on the banking system which slows down the
development of financial system and eventually leads toward poor economic growth. For
instance, interest rates ceilings and high mandatory reserves may exert negative influence on
the competitiveness of the financial sector.
In the last decades, numerous research studies were conducted to determine the effect of
financial markets on economic growth. However, the relationship between these variables is
still ambiguous. Some research studies depicted that financial intermediation matters for
economic growth (Murthy et al., 2014; A. K. Sahoo et al., 2014; Sinha & Shastri, 2021; Türsoy
& Faisal, 2018; Ventura, 2008; Yakubu & Abdallah, 2021) while others revealed that it has
inimical impact on economic growth (Boďa & Zimková, 2021; Ekpenyong & Acha, 2011; John
& Nwekemezie, 2019; Magwedere et al., 2021; Sulaiman et al., 2015a; Zaghdoudi et al., 2013).
Despite several research studies on subject matter, most research studies in Pakistan (Demirhan
et al., 2011; Kar et al., 2011; Tang et al., 2016; Yucel, 2009) focuses on examining the impact
of financial development on economic growth by using “bank credit to private sector” as a
proxy of financial development. The effect of other dimensions of the financial markets (e.g.,
foreign direct investment) on growth is barely discussed. In this way, this study is a contribution
in global debate on financial markets with context of Pakistan.
Undoubtedly, single proxies of financial markets are discussed in present studies. The most
used individual indicators are broad money, credit to private sector, savings, interest rates and
so on. Financial markets activities are not fully reflected by a single measure. Therefore, we
construct an index of financial market based on three broad indicators to provide a more
comprehensive analysis and to differ from prior studies.
This research study strengthens the literature of financial markets-economic growth in two
different ways. Firstly, this one is the first study which investigates the impact of financial
markets on economic growth with context of Pakistan. Secondly, it is the only research study
which examines the short and long run impact of financial markets on economic growth by
applying the vector error correction model (VECM) framework on recent data.
This research paper is divided into different sections, relevant literature is presented in
section 2, section 3 presents data and analytical strategy, section 4 depicts the finding of the
study, and concluding remarks are presented in last section.
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
The relation between financial market and economic growth is examined by the seminal work
of Patrick (1966) in terms of supply –leading hypothesis and demand following hypothesis.
Supply leading hypothesis reveals that economic growth is the result of financial deepening. It
postulates that optimal resource allocation is caused by financial sector development (Hurlin &
Venet, 2008). A well-developed financial sector give rise to financial services and gives easy
access to these financial services in anticipation to demand for them. The supply leading
hypothesis deduces that real sector growth driven by the development of the financial sector is
responded by the economy rapidly. Whereas the demand following hypothesis presumes that
economic growth induces financial development. The demand for financial services is
encouraged by growth in the real economy which in turn helps in the creation and improvement
of financial institutions (Demetriades & Hussein, 1996).
The effect of financial market on economic growth has been investigated at both cross
country and country specific level with indecisive findings. While conducting cross country
analysis, Levine (2001) applied different panel approaches by using data of 71 countries to
investigate the impact of financial market on economic growth. The authors revealed that
financial market positively drives economic growth across different countries. Similarly,
Atindéhou et al. (2005) investigated the relationship between financial market and economic
growth in West African countries within the Economic Community of West African States
(ECOWAS). Findings of the study from the panel vector autoregressive (VAR) model revealed
that economic growth is directly influenced by financial market. However, Adusei and Kofi
Afrane (2013) investigated the impact of financial market of credit unions on economic growth
by using a multi country analysis. The authors revealed that economic growth is significantly
Table 3 Correlations
DGDP DFD DFDI DBSC DSSE
DGDP 1
DFD 0.4352 1
DFDI -0.1871 0.3797 1
DBSC 0.4688 -0.2393 -0.5775 1
DSSE -0.1274 0.3652 0.2943 -0.7824 1
Result of correlation analysis shows a positive correlation of financial development with all
variables in the regression model. The relationship of financial development and DGDP is
significant and positive. The correlation coefficient is 0. 4352.While foreign direct investment
and DGDP is significantly and negatively correlated through each other and the value of
correlation coefficient for the variable is -0. 1871. The relationship among DBSC and DGDP
significant and positive and the value of correlation coefficient of the variables is 0.4688. The
relationship between DSSE and DGDP is significant and negative correlated with each other,
and value of correlation coefficient of these variables is -0.1274. The relationship among DFD
and DFDI positive and significantly correlated with each other and value of correlation
coefficient of these variables is 0.3797. The relationship between DFD and DBSC is significant
and negative correlated with each other, and value of correlation coefficient of these variables
is -0.2393. The relationship between DFD and DSSE is significant and positive correlated with
each other, and value of correlation coefficient of these variables is 0.3652. The relationship
between FDI and BSC is significant and negative correlated with each other, and value of
correlation coefficient of these variables is -0.5775. The association between DFDI and DSSE
is significant and positive correlated with each other and the value of correlation coefficient of
these variables 0.2943. The relationship between DBSC and DSSE is significant and negative
correlated by each other, and value of correlation coefficient of these variables is -0.7824.
These results reflect that there is a positive relationship among financial market, banking sector
credit, foreign direct investment, secondary school enrollment and real GDP. The value of R2
for said relationship is 0.5910.
The Co-integration test was used to conclude if the variables are co-integrated with each
other. The test is essential in the times series data. Co-integration test concludes whether there
is a long run relationship among the variables.
REFERENCES
[1] Acha, I. A. (2011). Financial Intermediation by Banks and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1990–
2008. Journal of Economics Sustainable Development, 2(4).
[2] Adusei, M., & Kofi Afrane, S. (2013). The Impact of credit union financial intermediation on
economic growth: a multi-country analysis. Global journal of business research, 7(5), 71-78.
[3] Agbada, A. O., & Osuji, C. (2013). An empirical analysis of trends in financial intermediation
and output in Nigeria. Global Journal of Management Business Research.
[4] Akaike, H. (1969). Power spectrum estimation through autoregressive model fitting. Annals of
the institute of Statistical Mathematics, 21(1), 407-419.
[5] Akaike, H. (1987). Factor analysis and AIC. In Selected papers of hirotugu akaike (pp. 371-
386): Springer.
[6] Amaira, B., & Amairya, R. (2014). Financial intermediation and economic growth in Tunisia:
an econometric investigation. International Journal of Business Behavioral Sciences, 4(3), 1-
19.
[7] Atindéhou, R. B., Gueyie*, J. P., & Amenounve, E. K. (2005). Financial intermediation and
economic growth: evidence from Western Africa. Applied Financial Economics, 15(11), 777-
790.
[8] Aziakpono, M. (2005). Financial development and economic growth in Southern Africa.
Reducing capital cost in Southern Africa, 1(1), 137-167.
[9] Boďa, M., & Zimková, E. (2021). Overcoming the loan-to-deposit ratio by a financial
intermediation measure—A perspective instrument of financial stability policy. Journal of
Policy Modeling.
[10] Borensztein, E., De Gregorio, J., & Lee, J.-W. (1998). How does foreign direct investment affect
economic growth? Journal of international Economics, 45(1), 115-135.
[11] Demetriades, P. O., & Hussein, K. A. (1996). Does financial development cause economic
growth? Time-series evidence from 16 countries. Journal of development Economics, 51(2),
387-411.
[12] Demirhan, E., Aydemir, O., & Inkaya, A. (2011). The direction of causality between financial
development and economic growth: evidence from Turkey. International Journal of
Management, 28(1), 3.
[13] Dorko, K. A. (2012). Relationship between capital market development and economic growth
in Kenya.
[14] Ekpenyong, D. B., & Acha, I. A. (2011). Banks and economic growth in Nigeria. uropean
Journal of Business Management, 3(4).
[15] Fry, M. J. (1980). Money and Capital or Financial Deepening in Economic Developments? In
Money and Monetary Policy in Less Developed Countries (pp. 107-113): Elsevier.
[16] Greenwood, J., & Jovanovic, B. (1990). Financial development, growth, and the distribution of
income. Journal of political Economy, 98(5, Part 1), 1076-1107.
[17] Haini, H. (2021). Examining the nonlinear impact of the banking sector on economic growth:
evidence from China’s Provinces. Journal of Chinese Economic Business Studies, 1-18.
[18] Hurlin, C., & Venet, B. (2008). Financial development and growth: A re-examination using a
panel Granger causality test.
[19] Jalloh, M. (2009). The role of financial markets in economic growth. WAIFEM Regional Course
on Operations Regulation of Capital Market, 27-31.
[20] John, E. I., & Nwekemezie, O. A. (2019). Effect of financial intermediation on economic
development of Nigeria. IOSR Journal of Economics Finance, 10(1), 23-32.
[21] Kar, M., Nazlıoğlu, Ş., & Ağır, H. (2011). Financial development and economic growth nexus
in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis. Economic modelling, 28(1-
2), 685-693.
[22] Kihombo, S., Ahmed, Z., Chen, S., Adebayo, T. S., & Kirikkaleli, D. (2021). Linking financial
development, economic growth, and ecological footprint: what is the role of technological
innovation? Environmental Science Pollution Research, 1-11.
[23] King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1994). Capital fundamentalism, economic development, and
economic growth. Paper presented at the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public
Policy.
[24] Levine, R. (2001). International financial liberalization and economic growth. Review of
international Economics, 9(4), 688-702.
[25] Magwedere, M. R., Chisasa, J., & Marozva, G. (2021). Examining the cointegrating relationship
between financial intermediation and poverty in a selected panel of developing countries.
Journal of Economic Financial Sciences, 14(1), 10.
[26] Murthy, D. S., Patra, S. K., & Samantaraya, A. (2014). Trade openness, financial development
index and economic growth: Evidence from India (1971-2012). Journal of Financial Economic
Policy.
[27] Pagano, M. (1993). Financial markets and growth: an overview. European economic review,
37(2-3), 613-622.
[29] Purewal, K., & Haini, H. (2021a). Re-examining the effect of financial markets and institutions
on economic growth: evidence from the OECD countries. Economic Change Restructuring, 1-
23.
[30] Purewal, K., & Haini, H. (2021b). Re-examining the effect of financial markets and institutions
on economic growth: evidence from the OECD countries. Economic Change Restructuring, 1-
23.
[31] Sahoo, A. K., Sahoo, D., & Sahu, N. C. (2014). Mining export, industrial production and
economic growth: A cointegration and causality analysis for India. Resources Policy, 42, 27-
34.
[32] Sahoo, S. (2014). Financial intermediation and growth: Bank-based versus market-based
systems. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 8(2), 93-114.
[33] Schwartz, A., & Wilde, L. L. (1978). Intervening in markets on the basis of imperfect
information: A legal and economic analysis. U. Pa. L. Rev., 127, 630.
[34] Sinha, N., & Shastri, S. (2021). Does financial development matter for domestic investment?
Empirical evidence from India. South Asian Journal of Business Studies.
[35] Sulaiman, S., Adedamola, L., Aluko, A., & Adewale, O. (2015a). Financial intermediation and
economic growth: A test for causality in Nigeria. Banks systems (10 (4)), 69-74.
[36] Sulaiman, S., Adedamola, L., Aluko, A., & Adewale, O. (2015b). Financial intermediation and
economic growth: A test for causality in Nigeria. Banks systems(10, Iss. 4), 69-74.
[37] Tang, C. F., Tiwari, A. K., & Shahbaz, M. (2016). Dynamic inter-relationships among tourism,
economic growth and energy consumption in India. Geosystem engineering, 19(4), 158-169.
[38] Türsoy, T., & Faisal, F. (2018). Does financial depth impact economic growth in North Cyprus?
Financial Innovation, 4(1), 1-13.
[39] Ünvan, Y. A., & Yakubu, I. N. (2020). Do bank-specific factors drive bank deposits in Ghana?
Journal of Computational Applied Mathematics, 376, 112827.
[40] Ventura, C. M. (2008). The effects of financial intermediation on Colombian economic growth.
Ensayos sobre Política Económica, 26(57), 250-281.
[41] Yakubu, I. N., & Abdallah, I. (2021). Modelling the financial intermediation function of banks
and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Money Business.
[42] Yucel, F. (2009). Causal relationships between financial development, trade openness and
economic growth: the case of Turkey. Journal of Social sciences, 5(1), 33-42.
[43] Zaghdoudi, T., Ochi, A., & Soltani, H. (2013). Banking intermediation and economic growth:
some evidence from MENA countries.