Effect of Enhanced X-Ray Flux on the Ionosphere over Cyprus during

Solar Flares

Md Golam Mostafa and Haris Haralambous

Department of Electrical Engineering, Frederick University, Nicosia 1036, Cyprus

ABSTRACT

In this work we study the effect of solar flares on the ionosphere over the Cyprus region. Solar flares are manifestations
of impulsive solar activity events usually coupled with Coronal Mass Ejection (CME). The arrival and the subsequent
impact of solar flares on geospace, following an eruption on the Sun’s surface is almost immediate (around 9 min)
whereas the impact of CMEs is rather delayed (2-3 days) as the former is based on X-ray radiation whereas the latter
phenomenon is related with particles and magnetic fields travelling at lower speeds via the Solar Wind. The penetration
of X-rays down to the D-region of the ionosphere following such an event increases significantly the electron density.
This increase can be monitored by ionosondes, which are radars that measure the electron density of the ionosphere up to
the maximum electron density NmF2. The practical significance of the increase in D-region electron density lies on the
increase of signal absorption that it produces causing limited window of operating frequencies for HF communications.
In this study the effect of enhanced X-ray flux on the ionosphere over Cyprus during intense X-class solar flares has been
investigated. To establish the magnitude of correlation and extent of impact on different layers, data of X-ray intensity
from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and ionospheric characteristics data (D & F layer) from
ionosonde over Nicosia station (35° N, 33° E) were examined for all solar flares of X-Class that occurred during the
period 2011-2014. The data analysis revealed a positive and good correlation between frequency of minimum reflection,
fmin and X-ray intensity for D layer. It means that X-rays play a dominant role in the ionization of lower ionosphere.
Hence, X-ray flux can be used as a good proxy for studying the solar flare effects on lower ionosphere. However, the
correlation coefficient between maximum electron density of F layer, NmF2 and X-ray intensity was found to be poor. In
certain cases, it was found that the variations in X-ray intensity do not correspond to variation in NmF2 and the two go
out of phase. Hence for studying the effect of extreme solar events on the upper ionosphere X-ray fluxes are not
adequate.
Keywords: Solar flare, X-ray flux, coronal mass ejection (CME), sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID), extreme
ultraviolet (EUV) flux, critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2), Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

1. INTRODUCTION
One of the most intense solar events that causes telecommunication disturbances is the solar flare [1]. A solar flare can
be defined as a sudden, intense, and rapid release of energy from a localized active region of the Sun, usually near a
complex group of sunspots, mainly in the form of electromagnetic radiation over the entire spectrum [2]. Solar flares and
CMEs are the result of the sudden release of magnetic stresses accumulated for some period of time in the lower solar
atmosphere [3]. During solar flares, magnetic energy of 1029 to 1033 ergs is released by means of magnetic reconnection
[4]. Flares can suddenly affect dynamics of the ionosphere depending on its characteristics and therefore provide a
significant study field for investigating ionospheric dynamics [5]. The enhancement of X-ray and EUV emission
observed during chromatic flares on the Sun immediately causes an increased ionization thereby increasing the electron
density in the Earth’s ionosphere [6]. These density enhancements differ for different altitudes over the entire spectrum
and are called sudden ionospheric disturbances (SID) [7], [8], [9], which are deleterious to radio wave communication,
navigation, exploration of near Earth space, electronic systems in satellites and spacecrafts [9], [10].

The effect of solar flares on the ionosphere has been studied by various researchers in the past by using several
ionospheric parameters like electron density, critical frequency of F2 layer (foF2), peak electron density (NmF2) and peak
height (hmF2) of the F2 layer as well as total electron content (TEC) [11], [12], [13], [14].
The minimum frequency of reflection in radio soundings by ionosonde, fmin, depends, apart from other factors, on the
absorption from D-region of ionosphere and therefore, its changes are a fairly good indicator of the changes in the
electron density in D-region. The value of fmin is known to increase following the solar flares and for large solar flares
could cause complete radio blackout in radio soundings [15]. These disruptions/fadeouts are due to the increased
absorption of radio waves consequent to increased flare time ionization in the ionospheric D region. In upper ionosphere
it is found that the value of critical frequency of F2 layer also shows an increase consequent to flares as measured by
ground based ionosondes [16]. The electron densities of E and F1 layers also show enhancement during flares [17].
Moreover, sudden changes in the carrier frequency have been reported [18].

In this paper we examined the behavior of lower and upper ionosphere over Cyprus during a number of large solar flares
that occurred during 2011-2014. Our comparative study reveals some important facts. For lower ionosphere, specially,
during day time solar flare events, we report a very good correlation between solar X-ray flux and fmin indicating that the
X-ray flux is a good parameter for studying the effect of flares on the lower ionosphere. While for upper ionosphere, the
correlation between X-ray flux and NmF2 was low indicating that X-ray flux alone is not sufficient to study the effect of
extreme solar events on upper ionosphere.

2. DATA AND METHOD

We studied a total of 51 (fifty one) solar flares observed during 2011-2014 and investigated three sets of data in relation
to those flares: (1) X-ray flux measured by X-ray sensors onboard Geosynchronous Operational Environmental Satellite
GOES-15 (2) frequency of minimum reflection (fmin) of D layer of the ionosphere measured by means of ground based
radio sounding system, Ionosonde Nicosia Station and (3) peak electron density (NmF2) of F2 layer measured by Nicosia
ionosonde station.

GOES data of solar X-ray flux output containing both 1-minute and 5-minute averages are available for public access at
NOAA’s Space Environment Center (NOAASEC) website [19]. In our study, we have used the 5-minute average values.
The intensity and time series of these X-ray fluxes have been used for examining solar flare effects on the ionosphere of
Earth [20], [21], [22] and Mars [23], [24].

Digisonde ionospheric sounders installed at 80+ locations in the world have gradually evolved their generally
independent existence into a Global Ionospheric Radio Observatory (GIRO) portal. GIRO provides public access to 30+
million records of ionospheric measurements collected at 64 locations, of which 42 provide real-time feeds, publishing
their measurement data within several minutes from their completion [25]. Regular radio sounding are made from
Nicosia station since 2009. The data is open for public access via Digital Ionogram DataBase (DIDBase) and Digital
Drift DataBase (DriftBase) Web Portals. Our ionosonde data provides 5 minute values in automatically scaled form. For
the present study we have used the manually scaled values of fmin and f0F2 (critical frequency of F2 layer) over Nicosia
station. However, in some cases automatically scaled values of fmin and f0F2 were used. From the values of f0F2 we
calculated the values of NmF2 by using the formula:

N m F 2 = 1.24 × 10 4 × ( f 0 F 2 )
2
(1)
where, f0F2 is the critical frequency of F2 layer.

3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

A solar flare of class M occurred during 24 August 2014 in the current solar cycle peak. The flare began at 12:00:00
attaining its peak at 12:17:00 and ending at 12:25:00. The sunspots location was S07E71 in the solar active region 2151.
Figure 1 shows the global solar X-ray flax observed by GOES-15 in both short (0.5-4.0 A) and long (1.0-8.0A)
wavelengths during 22-24 Aug 2014. The enhancement of X-ray emissions are obvious from the GOES X-ray flux (5-
minute data).
 Figure 1. Global solar X-ray flux observed by GOES-15 in both short (0.5-4.0 A) and long (1.0-8.0A) wavelengths during
22-24 Aug 2014.
Figure 2 shows the temporal variation in fmin and f0F2 in accordance with the changes in X-ray flux observed by GOES
for two consecutive daytime extreme solar flare occurred on 10 June 2014. Note that a solar flare of class X1.1 occurred
beginning at 11:36:00 attaining peak at 11:42:00 and ending at 11:44:00 followed by another one of class X1.5 beginning
at 12:36:00 attaining peak at 12:52:00 and ending at 13:03:00. The X-ray flux from the sun attains consecutive two
maxima at 11:42:00 and 12:52:00 respectively. From the graphs it is clear that there exists a very good correlation
between fmin and X-ray flux emanating from the Sun having correlation factor 0.61 and 0.48 respectively. At 13:00 hours
UT, fmin peaked to about 8.25 MHz, approximately 8 (eight) minutes after the occurrence of the second maxima of the
corresponding X-ray flux. Later there occurred a sharp decrease in X-ray intensity and values reached to its background
along with fmin following the same trend. The X-ray intensity variation are similar to variations in fmin but the decrease in
X-ray intensity is slightly sharper. In certain cases, it is observed that fmin exhibits a delayed response, either decreasing
gradually or remaining high even if X-ray flux has reached its background value. This delayed response of the D layer
may be due to the decay of ions/electrons following different processes and ambient atmospheric conditions.

Figure 2. Temporal variation of fmin and fOF2 and the X-ray flux during a daytime solar flare event.
The variation of f0F2 does not follow the similar pattern as of X-ray flux. The value of f0F2 peaks around 12:20 hours at
noon and the maximum value is 9.025 MHz. Thereafter the value of f0F2 gradually decreases to 7.2 at 15:50:00 and
again gradually increases to 8.775 around 18:15 hours long time after the X-ray flux has reached to its quiet value. In
certain cases, it was found that the variations in X-ray intensity do not correspond to the variation in f0F2 and the two go
out of phase. This may be due to the other parameters attributed by the other processes leaving impact on f0F2. In few
cases, the observed NmF2 was seen to be very high (~500) and this enhancement was strongly associated with X-ray
flux. The correlation coefficients between NmF2 and X-ray flux were estimated for all the events and are shown in
Table1. The coefficients vary widely from -0.97 to 0.52, which indicates that X-ray fluxes do not exhibit a strong
correlation with NmF2. Hence, for studying the effect of extreme solar events on the upper ionosphere, X-ray fluxes
alone are not adequate.

The correlation coefficients between fmin and X-ray intensity were estimated for all the events and are presented in Table
1. The correlation coefficients vary from -0.77 to 0.95 with an average value 0.25 and a median 0.34. It means that X-
rays play a dominant role in the ionization of lower ionosphere. Hence, X-ray flux can be used as a good proxy for
studying the solar flare and CME effects on lower ionosphere. However, as studied by Mahajan et al [26], this
correlation improves vastly when the central meridian distance (CMD) of the flare location is taken into account.
Therefore, not only the flare outputs but also their location is important while considering the effect of flares on upper
ionosphere.

Figure 3. The temporal variation of fmin and fOF2 non-responsive to the X-ray flux intensity during a nighttime solar flare
event.

Figure 3 represents the temporal variation of fmin and fOF2 with the X-ray flux intensity for a nighttime solar flare of
class X1.8 occurred on 20 December 2014 beginning at 00:11:00 attaining peak at 00:28:00 and ending at 00:55:00. As
expected, due to non-existence of D-region during night, poor correlation (-0.32) between fmin and X-ray flux intensity is
observed. The correlation between NmF2 and X-ray flux is also poor (-0.035). Typically, the value of fOF2 significantly
drops to 5×1010 at night from its daytime value of 1012. Duration of the flare is from 00:11:00 hours to 00:55:00 hours,
the X-ray flux intensity attains peak at 00:28:00, but despite that fact, both fmin and NmF2 rather show clear diurnal
variation by attaining maxima during noon.
During this intense solar flare, hard X-ray radiations can penetrate further into the ionosphere causing an increase in
ionization in the lower part of ionosphere (D-region). As a result, the lack of ionograms or partial ionograms may
appear. This indicates no echoes or partial echoes of the transmitted digital ionosonde signals. Figure 4 shows a series of
ionograms during solar flare occurred on 24 August 2014. Note that the ionograms are gradually disappearing and about
to disappear at around 12:20. This event is related to intense absorption resulting to incomplete or partial fade-out of
radio signals at the lower ionospheric heights.

Figure 4. Series of ionograms during a solar flare of class M5.9 occurred beginning at 12:00:00 attaining its peak at 12:17:00 and
ending at 12:25:00.

Figure 5 shows the plot of correlation coefficient of fmin with X-Ray Flux intensity during day. It is clear that the
correlation coefficients are mostly positive and show an increasing trend as the hour of the day approaches noon. Again,
the values gradually decrease as the time approaches evening.

Figure 5. Correlation coefficient of fmin and X-ray flux intensity versus time of the day.
 Figure 5. Variation of correlation coefficient with integrated X-Ray Flux intensity.

Figure 6 shows the plot of correlation coefficient of fmin versus integrated X-ray flux intensity. It is evident that for low
values of integrated X-ray flux intensities, the values of correlation coefficients of fmin are mostly low. But for the higher
values of integrated X-ray flux intensities, the values of correlation coefficients of fmin are mostly high.

Table 1. Degree of Correlation between the X-ray Intensity and the parameters representing upper and lower ionosphere
during selected solar flares.

Event Date Flare Intensity Begin, UT Max, UT End, UT Correlation

Between fmin and Between NmF2 and
X-ray Intensity X-ray Intensity
2011, Feb 15 X2.2 01:44 01:56 02:06 -0.347061062 -0.264581394
2011, Mar 9 X1.5 23:13 23:23 23:29 -0.198123873 0.017579402
2011, Aug 9 X6.9 07:48 08:05 08:08 0.798149611 -0.030435175
2012, July 6 X1.1 23:01 23:08 23:14 -0.3436 -0.043537
2012, July 12 X1.4 15:37 16:49 17:30 0.419557 0.043537
2012, Aug 18 M5.5 00:24 01:02 01:07 0.174532 0.041222
2012, Oct 20 M9.0 18:05 18:14 18:19 0.890539 -0.0074
2012, Nov 13 M6.0 01:58 02:04 02:06 0.36083 -0.79428
M2.5 05:42 05:50 05:54 0.10316 0.518988
M2.8 20:50 20:54 20:57 0.665036 0.088865
2013, May 13 X1.7 01:53 02:17 02:32 -0.19089 -0.2199
M1.3 11:57 12:03 12:09 0.727869 -0.518988
X2.8 15:48 16:05 16:16 0.9027 0.43
2013, May 14 X3.2 00:00 01:11 01:20 -0.24898 0.19168
2013, May 15 X1.2 01:25 01:11 01:20 -0.24898 0.19168
2013, Oct 25 M2.9 02:48 03:02 03:12 0.017785 -0.30783
X1.7 07:53 08:01 08:09 0.882869 -0.97238
M1.0 09:43 10:12 10:25 0.196308 -0.06228
X2.1 14:51 15:03 15:12 0.621562 -0.08989
M1.3 17:02 17:09 17:16 -0.15382 0.492328
M2.3 19:05 19:21 19:24 0.441086 -0.66214
M1.9 20:54 20:58 21:13 -0.52062 -0.79253
2013, Oct 28 X1.0 01:41 02:03 02:12 0.557269 -0.56207
2013, Nov 5 M2.5 08:12 08:18 08:21 0.132759 0.07882732
M1.0 18:08 18:13 18:17 -0.77508 -0.64333
X3.3 22:07 22:12 22:15 0.84005 0.3124
 2013, Nov 8 X1.1 04:20 04:26 04:29 0.85334 0.504863852
2013, Nov 10 X1.1 05:08 05:14 05:18 0.345123 0.475949
2014, Jan 1 M9.9 18:40 18:52 19:03 0.281633421 -0.44181639
2014, Jan 7 M7.2 10:07 10:13 10:37 0.940185 -0.56038
X1.2 18:04 18:32 18:52 -0.664499 -0.20826
2014, Feb 25 X4.9 00:39 00:49 01:03 -0.30904 -0.23521
2014, Apr 25 X1.3 00:17 00:27 00:38 -0.41844 -0.191141493
2014, Jun 10 X2.2 11:36 11:42 11:44 0.609333 0.349532
X1.5 12:36 12:52 13:03 0.485096 -0.54651
2014, Jun 11 M1.8 05:30 05:34 05:36 0.414856862 0.164241981
X1.1 08:59 09:06 09:10 0.275027 -0.22237
M3.9 20:53 21:03 21:10 0.351154 0.140922
2014, Aug 24 M5.9 12:00 12:17 12:25 0.375321 -0.63101
2014, Sep 10 X1.1 17:21 17:45 18:20 -0.1211 -0.69642
2014, Sep 28 M5.1 02:39 02:58 03:19 -0.17337 -0.25082
M1.0 16:34 17:33 18:00 -0.26061 -0.25768
2014, Oct 18 M1.6 07:02 07:58 08:49 0.930424 0.405818
2014, Oct 19 X1.1 04:17 05:03 05:48 0.741663 0.506811
2014, Oct 22 X1.6 14:02 14:28 14:50 0.588451 -0.29667
M1.4 15:51 15:57 16:03 -0.08951 0.312909
2014, Oct 24 X3.1 21:07 21:41 22:13 -0.103193538 -0.257020638
2014, Nov 3 M6.5 22:15 22:40 22:53 0.952216 0.391467
2014, Nov 5 M7.9 09:26 09:47 09:55 0.924267 -0.76815
M2.9 18:50 19:44 20:15 0.387577 -0.40507
2014, Dec 20 X1.8 00:11 00:28 00:55 -0.319 -0.0351

4. CONCLUSION
Based on our study of 51 solar flares of different class occurred during 2011-2014 in the solar maximum of sunspot cycle
24, we conclude that X-ray fluxes show a very good agreement with fmin during daytime. Therefore, X-ray fluxes can
serve as a good proxy for studying the effect of extreme solar events on the lower ionosphere. However, these fluxes do
not show a good correlation with upper ionospheric parameters, foF2 and NmF2. Hence, X-ray flux is not adequate for
studying the effect of solar flares on upper atmosphere where EUV fluxes play a dominant role. During nighttime solar
flare event, the variations of both fmin and foF2 with the X-ray flux intensity are poor. While the measurements based on
bottom-side sounding of the ionosphere are appropriate for studying lower ionospheric effects, topside and/or in-situ
measurements must be used for studying upper ionospheric effects. Flares can cause intense absorption resulting to
incomplete or partial fade-out of radio signals at the lower ionospheric heights. Therefore, their study is of high
importance for the seamless operation and protection of related telecommunications, navigation, and surveillance system.

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