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Task 4 Report PDF
Task 4 Report PDF
i
Acknowledgement
I have taken efforts in this internship. First of all, I would like to express my
gratitude to my
mentor to enabling me to complete this report on “Financial Modeling and Analysis
of 50
flats housing Project in Gurgaon, Haryana, IN”. However, it would not have been
possible without the kind support and help of the individuals and organization. I
would like to
extend my sincere thanks to all of them.
I am highly indebted to my mentor, Mr. Ashish S Kumar for their guidance and
constant
supervision as well as for providing necessary information regarding the project &
also for
their support in completing the project.
I would like to express my special gratitude and thanks to industry persons for
giving me
such attention and time.
ii
Executive summary
The objective of this report is to highlight the financial analysis and feasibility
of this project.
With the help of Vardhan consulting Engineers (VCE), I have work on the analysis
and
study of feasibility of the real Estate project in the Gurugram, Haryana as real
estate has
proved to be real engine growth. Over the years the real estate sector in india has
emerged as
a big engine for economic growth, as it second largest employer next only to
agriculture.
India‘s global competitiveness remains constrained and is adversely affected by
lack of
infrastructure, which is critical for improved productivity across all sectors of
the economy.
However, achieving the investment targeted for the Eleventh Plan presents many
distinct
challenges. These relate not only to scarcity of financial resources but also to
lack of capacity
within the government to implement these ambitious programmers.
In this internship “Project finance – Modelling and Analysis”, I have worked from
home as
physical internship is not possible due to pandemic COVID-19 lockdown. The project
title of
my internship is Financial Modelling and Analysis of 50 Flats Housing Project in
Gurgaon,
Haryana IN. I have prepared the financial model of 50 Flats Housing Project in
Gurgaon,
Haryana.
The objective of this is to study and analyze the financial viability of the
project by Revenue
model, Equity IRR, Min DSCR, Avg DSCR, project IRR and process flow of this
venture.
By this model, bank can check the weather loan should be provided or not to Client.
Bank
also checks the credit worthiness and future benefit from it.
iii
Residential plotted building
iv
Table of contents
Cover page i
Acknowledgement ii
Executive summary iii
List of maps vi
List of figures vi
List of tables vi
Abbreviation vii
Chapter 1: Introduction to Real Estate 1
1.1 Overview of Real Estate in India 1-3
1.2 Infrastructure development in Gurugram 4
Chapter 2: project financing 5
2.1 Project finance – primer and uses 6
2.2 Parties involved and transaction flow 6-7
2.3 Advantages and Disadvantages 8-9
2.4 Real estate project finance- definition and industry terms 9-10
2.5 Real estate development timeline 10-11
Chapter 3: Project description 12
3.1 type and location of project 13
3.2 selection of proposed site 13
3.3 Raw material Requirements 13
3.4 Availability of water and power 14
3.5 generation of waste and its treatment 14
3.6 site analysis 14-15
3.7 project planning brief 15-16
3.8 proposed infrastructure 16-18
Chapter 4: Project schedule and financial model 19
4.1 Project schedule 20
4.2 Project cost assumptions 20-22
4.3 preparation of financial model 23-26
Chapter 5: Results and feasibility study 27-33
Chapter 6: conclusion 34-35
bibliography 36
Last page 37
v
List of maps Name Page no.
Map no. 1 Gurugram city layout
vi
Abbreviation
Abbreviation Name
GDP Gross Domestic Product
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
REIT Real Estate Investment Trust
AIF Alternate Investment Fund
PMAY Pradhan Mantra Awas Yojana
DTCP The Directorate Of Town And Country Planning
RERA Real Estate Regulation & Development Act
CREDAI The Confederation Of Real Estate Developers Association
Of India
NCR National Capital Region
NH National Highway
CAPEX Capital Expenditure
SPV Special Purpose Vehicle
O&M Operation & Maintenance
D&B Design & Building
GMC Gurugram Municipal Corporation
DHBVN Dakshin Haryana Bijli Vitran Nigam
IRR Internal Rate Of Return
DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio
vii
viii
1.1 Overview of real estate in India:
The real estate sector is one of the most globally recognized sectors. Real estate
sector comprises
four sub sectors - housing, retail, hospitality, and commercial. The growth of this
sector is well
complemented by the growth of the corporate environment and the demand for office
space as well
as urban and semi-urban accommodations. The construction industry ranks third among
the 14
major sectors in terms of direct, indirect and induced effects in all sectors of
the economy. Real
estate sector in India is expected to reach a market size of US$ 1 trillion by 2030
from US$ 120 billion
in 2017 and contribute 13 per cent of the country’s GDP by 2025. Retail,
hospitality and commercial
real estate are also growing significantly, providing the much-needed
infrastructure for India's
growing needs.
The Indian real estate sector has witnessed high growth in recent times with the
rise in demand for
office as well as residential spaces. Demand for residential properties has surged
due to increased
urbanization and rising household income. India is among the top 10 price
appreciating housing
markets internationally. Residential segment contributes ~80 per cent of the real
estate sector.
1
Investments/Developments:
Indian companies, both public and private sectors, announced projects worth
1.99
trillion in the quarter ending March 2019, 16% lower than what was announced in
the
quarter ending December 2018, and 46% lower than the year-ago period.
First REIT raised Rs 4,750 crore (US$ 679.64 million) and was launched earlier
in 2019
by the global investment firm Blackstone and realty firm Embassy group.
In January 2019, Ascendas acquired Chennai's Pallavaram IT Park for US$ 35.70
million. • Iconic RK Studios property which is located in suburban Chembur,
acquired
by Godrej Properties
New housing launches across top seven cities in India are expected to increase
32 per
cent year-on-year by 2018 end to 193,600 units.
In September 2018, Embassy Office Parks announced that it would raise around Rs
52
billion (US$ 775.66 million) through India’s first Real Estate Investment Trust
(REIT)
listing.
Government Initiatives:
The Government of India along with the governments of the respective states has
taken
several initiatives to encourage the development in the sector. The Smart City
Project,
where there is a plan to build 100 smart cities, is a prime opportunity for the
real estate
companies. Below are some of the other major Government Initiatives:
In order to revive around 1,600 stalled housing projects across the top cities
in the
country, the Union Cabinet has approved the setting up of Rs 25,000 crore (US$
3.58
billion) alternative investment fund (AIF). • Blackstone crosses US$ 12 billion
investment milestone in India. • Puravankara Ltd, a realty firm plans to invest
around
Rs 850 crore (US$ 121.6 million) over the next four years to develop three
ultra-luxury
2
residential projects in Bangalore, Chennai and Mumbai. • Under Pradhan Mantri
Awas
Yojana (Urban) [PMAY (U)], 1.12 crore houses have been sanctioned in urban
areas
creating 1.20 crore jobs.
The real estate sector is centered on various laws and policies and attracts
numerous
behavioral patterns, which reflect anti-competitive practices (Competition Policy
and
Competition Law), Anti-consumer practices, Unfair-trade practices and other
regulatory
issues. There are spates of laws enacted by the Central Government under the
Central and the
Concurrent List of the Constitution, which are directly or indirectly associated to
the Real
Estate sector. The study also takes a ring side peek into the laws enacted by the
Central
Government, to identify provisions or practices which negate competition in the
sector. The
study also reviews the policies of the Centre and thereby creates an environment
for
channelizing more participation and investment in the Real Estate sector.
Every real estate project prior to launch has to seek almost 52 plus approvals, and
the time lag
from conception to beginning of construction is anything between 2 years to 3
years,
differing from State to State. There is no single window clearance system, the
approval
system is not time bound and could take up to two years, and there is no provision
for online
submission. These circumstances together make the entire business proposition
onerous and
time-consuming for any prospective developer.
Real Estate is a State subject and the role of the Central Government is vital
along-with
relentless policy advisory in the form of Policies, Model Legislations, and
Guidance Notes,
which have helped propel the momentum towards greater real estate activity.
With Gurugram, Sonepat, Faridabad and Panchkula humming with commercial and
residential building activities, the real estate emerged as the most favourite
sector for
investors in Haryana in 2010, an Assocham Study said.
Bucking the trend in urban centers around the country, real estate in Gurugram is
leading a
revival of investor sentiment in the National Capital Region. One of the biggest
reasons for
this buoyancy, breaking a five-year dry spell, is strict implementation of the law,
say experts.
The revival of confidence among buyers could lead to prices of residential and
commercial
properties in Gurugram increasing by as much as 10% to 20%.
The market in Gurugram is now witnessing the positive effects of the implementation
of Real
Estate (Regulation and Development) Act, 2016 (RERA). In the last two months,
construction of 20,000 new flats has started in the Millennium City, bringing in
investments
of Rs 3 lakh crore into the real estate business. "Earlier, developers used to take
investors'
money and divert it to other projects. Such practices were widely prevalent before
2014. The
next few years will be even more exciting for buyers since builders are under
pressure to
complete projects in the next three years, in line with PM Narendra Modi's promise
of
'housing for all by 2022'.
With the delays in the completion of the Dwarka Expressway almost resolved, the
demand
will see a further boost. Commenting on the effects of this, Prashant Solomon,
managing
director of Chintels India and treasurer, CREDAI, an apex body of private real
estate
developers' associations, says: "It is good news for the area as developers have
invested over
Rs 60,000 crore in residential and commercial projects along the 150-metre-wide
roadway,
but had been struggling to sell projects due to lack of proper connectivity. There
are around
1.5 lakh home buyers who have suffered for more than a decade due to the delay. As
the
entire land required for completing the Dwarka Expressway now vests with NHAI, we
are
hopeful of a quick completion of the road project."
In Gurugram, the realty investment hotspots are the areas where the Southern
Peripheral
Road and Northern Peripheral Road (as the Dwarka Expressway is also known) meet at
NH-8
(sectors 99-112 and 37D, sectors 58-63, 68, 78-81, 84, and 85-86). As per data by
Anarock
Property Consultants, the weighted average price for properties launched between
Januarys to
May in 2019 is Rs 4,900 per sq.ft. Approximately 8,500 new units have been launched
in
Gurugram from January to May 2019, comprising nearly 51 per cent of the total
supply in the
entire NCR.
4
5
2.1 Project Finance – A Primer
Project finance is the financial analysis of the complete life-cycle of a project.
Typically, a
cost-benefit analysis is used to determine if the economic benefits of a project
are larger than
the economic costs. The analysis is particularly important for long-term projects
of growth
CAPEX. The first step of the analysis is to determine the financial structure, a
mixture of debt
and equity that will be used to finance the project. Then, identify and value the
economic
benefits of the project and determine if the benefits outweigh the costs.
A sponsor (the entity requiring finance to fund projects) can choose to finance a
new project using
two alternatives:
6
1) SPONSORS
Sponsors are usually the equity share capital holders of the parent company who
wish to seek
project finance. Two or more entities may also join hands to float an SPV.
Instances of this
phenomenon occur when two organizations create synergy for one another or are
likely to
mutually benefit from the underlying SPV. They are the equity providers of the SPV.
Before
floating an SPV, they must obtain authorization from the shareholders of the parent
company
via a shareholder’s agreement (SHA).
2) BANKS/FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
It is a separate legal entity floated by the sponsors of the project. The project
finance obtained
is directed exclusively only towards this SPV. The SPV acts as a corporate veil
between the
lenders and the parent company preventing seepage of credit and attachment of
property
between the two parties.
4) HOST GOVERNMENT
Refers to the government of the home country where the SPV is located. The SPV must
be
incorporated in accordance with the government’s rules and regulations. It also
often acts as a
guardian angel in providing various tax concessions, subsidies, and rebates.
5) OFF TAKERS
7
2.3 Advantages and disadvantages of Project Finance
Project finance enables the sponsors to raise debt over and above the capacity of
the parent.
This borrowing can be viewed in an individual capacity and is not impacted by the
credit
reputation of its sponsors. Therefore, more beneficial and flexible terms of credit
can be
negotiated depending solely on the merit and potential of the project under review.
RISK MANAGEMENT
As already discussed, what makes project finance truly special is the separation of
the legal
identity of the parents and SPV. This provides enormous diversification and
dilution of the
risk element. The shareholders of the parent company are immune against the
fluctuations in
the fate of the project. The liability is limited to the amount of equity
contributed by the
sponsors. Additionally, the risk is also reduced upon involve of multiple entities.
More than
one company may often form a joint venture to form a single SPV. Thus, the same
amount of
risk when distributed among a larger number of participants reduces each party’s
exposure.
ECONOMIES OF SCALE
An SPV, when floated by more than one parent, is very likely to demonstrate
economies of
scale. Two contemporary organizations will only agree to come together for a common
goal
when they see a significant benefit flowing from the association. Especially in the
case of
manufacturing and construction industries, one entity can hugely benefit at the
expense of
another and vice-a-versa. For example, an extraction company and a mine owner may
agree
to combine for the sale of extracted material. Vertical synergies will come into
play. Both
entities will be able to achieve the scale and profits they could not have achieved
in their
individual capacity. Also, they will also hold better bargaining power with vendors
as well as
buyers.
COMPLEXITY
At all stops, setting up an SPV faces resistance. Banks and financial institutions
perform
extreme due diligence and checks before extending even a penny of credit. This is
mainly for
the reason that an SPV holds separate legal status. The bank can make recoveries
only against
the asset and cash flows of the SPV. Therefore, they must be doubly sure of the
future
8
prospects and soundness of the operating plans. All these checks are time-consuming
and
expensive. Obviously, the SPV and its sponsors have to bear the brunt of this
excruciating
process.
Also, a project finance venture sets off the radars of the government. The
government is
extremely vigilant when it comes to sanctioning the creation of an SPV. This is
because
several parallel organizations that come into being have been known to evade taxes,
circumvent money and indulgence is gross negligence of regulations. A potential SPV
must,
therefore, be patient and comply with all conditions imposed to win over its trust.
Real estate project finance cash flows should be sufficient to cover operating
expenses and to
fund the financing repayment requirements. Typically, the financing is made up of
debt and
equity matched to the lifespan of the asset.
1) Loan to value (LTV): The amount of debt financing a lender will provide as a
percentage
of the market value of the real estate.
2) Loan to cost (LTC): The amount of debt financing a lender will provide as a
percentage
of the cost of a development.
3) Net operating income (NOI): Gross rental revenue less operating expenses
(property
taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.).
4) Cap rate: NOI divided by the value of the property, expressed as a percentage.
5) Amortization period: The number of periods (months or years) the principal
repayments
of a loan take to be completed.
9
6) Term: The length of time that the interest rate on a mortgage loan is agreed
for.
7) General partner (GP): An owner of a partnership with unlimited liability –
usually a
manager who actively participates in the operations.
8) Limited partner (LP): A passive investor who has limited ability, based on the
amount
they have invested in the project.
9) Land loan: Financing used to acquire a piece of land with no NOI. The long-term
value
will be much lower than that of an income-producing property.
10) Floor space ratio (FSR): Used to determine the size of a building and control
the density
of development on a parcel of land.
11) Gross building area (GBA): The sum of all building spaces from wall to wall.
12) Gross leasable area (GLA): The sum of all enclosed livable space.
13) Gross site area: The two-dimensional measures of a site based on its property
lines.
14) Deductions: A portion of the gross site area that cannot be built on, such as
public access
areas, roads, lanes, etc.
15) Net site area: The gross site area, less any deductions.
16) Max GBA: The gross building area, calculated based on the FSR.
17) Construction GBA: The gross building area, based on construction plans.
18) Saleable area: The gross building area based on construction, less all common
spaces or
other non-salable areas.
10
Understanding the development process and timeline helps us get a clear map when
building
a real estate project finance model. There are several stages in a real estate
development
project:
Different types of funding are used at each stage of the life cycle of real estate
project
finance. For example, a company may use equity to finance the sourcing of deals.
This is
because there is high risk in the early stages of a project and, therefore, it may
be hard to
obtain bank loans. In the later stages, such as rezoning and pre-development, the
projects are
usually financed with both loans and equity.
11
12
3.1 Type and location of Project
TYPE OF PROJECT:
Proposed project is the construction project of High Rise Residential Building
having total
area is around 90000 sq. ft with 45000 sq. ft of built up area in Gurugram,
Haryana. The
building has 8 floors. Each floor has 6 flats.
All the physical infrastructure facilities like trunk main of water supply,
Drainage & storm
drain are planned in this area. So all proposed infrastructure facilities will be
available and
city level infrastructure facilities will also be available.
Construction materials i.e. cement, steel, wire, sand, aggregate, bricks etc. will
be procured
from the local market as per requirements. Approximate Quantities are mentioned
below
table:
13
3.4 Availability of water and power
WATER REQUIREMENT AND ITS SOURCE: The main source of water is GMC water supply.
Treated Water will be supplied from GMC water mains. Drinking water quality is
as per with the
quality of water supplied to other citizens. The water quality is through
necessary treatment
maintained by GMC. As GMC is supplying treated drinking water in water mains,
there is no
need for further treatment of water to make it potable. During Construction,
total water
requirement is 8.0 KLD.
POWER REQUIREMENT AND ITS SOURCE: During Construction total power requirement
will be
500 KVA and source will be DHBVN. During Operational Phase total power
requirement will be
1250 KVA for flats, Lifts and pumps, source will be DHBVN.
During Construction Phase Domestic waste water of around 2.2 KLD shall be generated
which will be disposed off through GMC drains and treated at nearest Sewage
Treatment
Plant. The solid waste management is one of the key considerations in the area.
Door to Door
solid waste collection system is existing in whole Gurugram city. That will be
provided at
relocation site also. The segregation of wet and dry waste will also be adopted.
15
Sr. no. Particulars Area in sq. m
Plot/ Land area 90000
1
Built up area 45000
2
FSI area
3
Parking area 11000
4
Common Plot area
5
No of Tower Particulars
Tower 1 Basement b1 Parking
Ground floor Security office
1st floor 6 (3bhk)
2nd to 8th floor42 (3bhk)
Total 50 ( 3bhk) flats
TABLE 5: DETAILS OF DWELLING UNITS
2) GREEN BELT: For the proposed project Green Belt area shall be developed
at plot
boundary, road side.
3) SOCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE:
i) FACILITIES WITHIN SITE
1. Common Plot
2. Water Supply
3. Electricity Supply
4) CONNECTIVITY: The proposed project site is well connected with the road,
railway
and air.
5) DRINKING WATER SOURCE: The main source of water supply is GMC.
6) SEWERAGE SYSTEM:
i) TYPE OF SEWAGE SYSTEM PROPOSED:
Regular drainage line of NP3 class R.C.C. pipes will be laid on the
internal roads of
the developed site. This will be connected with regular sewer line,
disposing the
sewage water in Sewage Treatment Plant.
16
ii) SEWAGE DISPOSAL POINT AND ITS INTEGRATION WITH CITY LEVEL
SEWAGE DISPOSAL SYSTEM :
The disposal point is through GMC drains will be at Sewage treatment plant.
7) SOLID WASTE MANAGEMENT: The solid waste management is one of the key
considerations in the area. Door to Door solid waste collection system is
existing in whole
Gurugram city. That will be provided at relocation site also. The segregation
of wet and
dry waste will also be adopted. See fig. 3
8) ELECTRICAL CONTROLS: The plant shall be completely pre wired / site wired and
shall include all the power and control cabling required for the fully
automatic operation
of the plant. The control system shall include circuit breakers, motor,
starters and timers
all housed in a weather proof cubicle type panel board. All wiring shall run
through
electrical metallic tubing. All wiring shall be sized according to the National
Electric
Code Standards. No splice shall be permitted in the service wires. It shall
also be the
responsibility of the contractor to furnish and install all required exterior
disconnects,
switching mechanisms, alarm or control conduit and wiring. The branch circuit
shall be
short circuit protected by thermal magnetic air circuit breakers. All control
circuits shall
be protected by a single phase thermal magnetic air circuit breaker. A magnetic
across the
line starter with overload heaters in each phase and a common trip contact set
shall be
provided for each blower motor to give positive protection against single
phasing. Motor
insulation shall be class `B’ insulation and the design shall be such that the
maximum
permissible temperature for the insulation is not exceeding when the motor
operates at
service factor load in a -5 to 45° C ambient on full load condition. All motors
shall have
anti-friction; ball-bearings sized an average life of at least 100,000 hours
under normal V-
BELT loading conditions. The mechanical/electrical system shall be designed to
withstand ambient temperature range of 0°C - 50° C.
9) VEHICLE PARKING FACILITIES: Adequate provision will be made for resident’s
parking at the proposed project site. There shall also be adequate parking
provisions for
visitors so as not to disturb the traffic and allow smooth movement at the
site. However
the Parking for plot owners will be within their plot as per HUDA Building Bye
Laws.
10) POWER REQUIREMENT: The power shall be supplied by Dakshin Haryana Bijli
Vitran Nigam (DHBVN).
18
19
4.1 Project Schedule
Implementation of Project within a pre-determined time frame is an important factor
for the
success of a project. Timely implementation saves on various costs like interest,
administrative overheads and helps to realize the goals as per pre-determined
objectives.
Implementation of Project involves co-ordination of different activities at various
levels of
the firm and amongst different outside agencies. We are giving here under the
details of the
Project Implementation:
“Home Developers” has acquired a piece of land near Gurugram HR and wants to
develop it as
a residential building having 50 flats of 900 sq. ft each. They are expecting to
sell the flats at a
rate of Rs. 4000 / sq.ft. They are seeking a non-recourse debt (project financing)
with 70:30 as
D/E ratio from leading commercial banks in India as a 12 years term loan.
Assumptions:
1) Project details:
PROJECT DETAILS
Size in Sq. Ft 45000 80.10
Equity 30% 24.03
Debt 70% 56.07
Debt Service Resv (DSR) 1 yr
Table no. 7 Project Details
20
2) Project cost Estimates: Table no. 8 CAPEX cost Estimation
21
4) Other Assumptions
ASSUMPTIONS
Inflation 4.00% Debt rate 10.0% USD/INR 75.00
DDT 0.00% Moratorium 1 Yr Discount 10%
Tax 0 yrs Debt tenure 12 yrs Construction Time 1.8 yr
Holiday
Tax rate 25.00% Depreciation 7.00% MAT 18.5%
Table no. 11 Other Assumptions
22
4.3 Preparation of Financial
Model
1) NET PROJECTED REVENUE:
year -> 1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8 9 10
no of units sold per year 5 5 5 5
5 5 5 5 5 5
rate per sq. Feet 4000 4000 4000 4000
4000 4000 4000 4000 4000 4000
avg sale price per flat 3600000 3888000 4199040 4534963
4897760 5289581 5712748 6169767 6663349 7196417
gross sales 18 19.44 20.9952 22.67482
24.4888 26.44791 28.56374 30.84884 33.31674 35.98208
less commission fees 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
net projected revenues( millions 17.15 18.59 20.1452 21.82482
23.6388 25.59791 27.71374 29.99884 32.46674 35.13208
INR)
2) Fin flows
23
net projected revenues( 17.15 18.59 20.1452 21.82481 23.6388
25.5979 27.7137 29.9988 32.4667 35.1320
millions INR) 6 01
05 38 37 44 83
operating expenses
Building Maintenance 0.126 0.13104 0.13628 0.141732 0.14740
0.15329 0.15943 0.16580 0.17243 0.17933
16 864 22
83 02 74 97 73
Utilities (Electric + Water 0.0765 0.07956 0.08274 0.086052 0.08949
0.09307 0.09679 0.10066 0.10469 0.10888
+ Internet) 24 096 42
39 69 88 55 34
Salary (Maid + 0.108 0.11232 0.11681 0.121485 0.12634
0.13139 0.13665 0.14212 0.14780 0.15371
Accountant) 28 312 47
85 45 06 55 77
Plumber + Electrician + 0.099 0.10296 0.10707 0.111361 0.11581
0.12044 0.12526 0.13027 0.13548 0.14090
Misc etc 84 536 6
86 66 72 83 79
Insurance 0.1215 0.12636 0.13141 0.136670 0.14213
0.14782 0.15373 0.15988 0.16628 0.17293
44 976 78
33 63 57 11 24
Total O&M Cost (per year) 5.0355 5.23692 5.44639 5.664252 5.89082
6.12645 6.37151 6.62637 6.89142 7.16708
68 672 28
57 39 45 95 66
Non operating
expenses
Interest payment -5.61 -5.34 -5.06 -4.74 -4.39
-4.01 -3.58 -3.12 -2.61 -2.05
depreciation -0.5355 - - - -
- - - - -
0.49801 0.46315 0.430733 0.40058
0.37254 0.34646 0.32221 0.29965 0.27868
5 4 174 19
11 32 08 61 01
total non operating -6.14 -5.84 -5.52 -5.17 -4.79
-4.38 -3.93 -3.44 -2.91 -2.33
expenses
24
income before taxes 5.97 7.51 9.18 10.99 12.96
15.09 17.41 19.93 22.67 25.64
tax -1.49 -1.88 -2.29 -2.75 -3.24
-3.77 -4.35 -4.98 -5.67 -6.41
net income 4.48 5.63 6.88 8.24 9.72
11.32 13.06 14.95 17.00 19.23
Cash flow
Equity -24.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net Income 6.27 7.57 8.98 10.50 12.16
13.96 15.91 18.02 20.32 22.82
Add back depreciation 0.5355 0.49801 0.46315 0.430733 0.40058
0.37254 0.34646 0.32221 0.29965 0.27868
5 4 174 19
11 32 08 61 01
Principal Payment (-) -2.62 -2.88 -3.17 -3.49 -3.84
-4.22 -4.65 -5.11 -5.62 -6.18
CSR (0.50 % of Net -0.34 -0.40 -0.47 -0.55 -0.63
-0.72 -0.81 -0.92 -1.03 -1.15
Income) (-)
Final Project Cashflow -24.03 3.85 4.78 5.80 6.90 8.09
9.39 10.79 12.32 13.97 15.76
(Equity)
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3) Debt schedule or Repayment
26
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5.1 financial feasibility analyses
Before an investment decision is made it is necessary to determine whether or not
the planned
investment idea is feasible. The feasibility of an investment has to be considered
with respect
to several different aspects in order to determine whether the investment should be
realized or
not. Carrying out a feasibility analysis is therefore one of the most critical
step.
1. Company Expenses
2. Revenues
5. DSCR
6. IRR
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1) Expenses:
Operating expenses include all expenses incurred by the Authority associated
with
operating the project as well as its share of capital expenditures. Total
operating expenses
for ten-year period from FY2021 – Budget 2030 are projected to increase from
approximately 5.03 mn INR to 7.16 mn INR due to inflation rate which is 4%.
Total
capital expense includes the items which shown in below chart.
Company expenses
2% 2%
Land
2% 3% Flat construction
cost
4%
Interior
Decoration
Furniture
13% 40% Fixtures
Building
Registration
4% Broker Fee
1% Stamp Duty
2% 10% Fund Raising Fee
7% 10% Tranfer of Deed
Fee
Interest During
Moratorium
Operating Expenses
2%
Building
Maintainence
Plumber +
Electrician + Misc etc
7.16
6.89
7
6.37 6.26
6.12
5.89
6 5.66
5.23 5.44
5.03
5
0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
2029 2032
2) Revenue
Total operating revenues for the Ten-year period from Year 2021 to Year 2030 are
projected
to increase from approximately 17.15 million INR to 35.13 million INR, resulting in
a
compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.43 percent. Increased price
of flats
and interest of deposit contribute significantly to this growth. You can look table
no. 13 for
yearly revenue.
40
35.13
35 32.4
29.99
30 27.71
25.59
25 23.63
21.82
20.14
20 18.59
17.15
15
10
5
0
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
2032
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3) Debt/ Loan Repayment Schedule
As the project need larger amount of investment capital and this one need to
develop special
purpose vehicle to divide the risk. The Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) or Special
Purpose
Entity (SPE) is one of the most used tools in infrastructure financing. It doesn’t
matter
whether the project is being constructed by a private company, a public entity, or
in a public-
private partnership. In most cases, special purpose vehicles are created for every
infrastructure project.
A Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) is an entity created only for the purpose of
execution of the
project. This means that for legal purposes, the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) is
different
from the private company or the government body, which may be sponsoring it. It has
its own
balance sheet and profit and loss statement. Lenders are supposed to lend to these
Special
Purpose Vehicles (SPV) based on their assets and liabilities and not the assets and
liabilities
of the parent firm. In most cases, the Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) Company takes
non-
recourse financing. This means that in the event of a default, investors can only
seize the
assets of the project and not the assets of the parent firm, which may be involved
in the
project.
Here, in this project, “Home Developers” need to create SPV for non-recourse
liability. To
complete the project, they need to get a debt loan from commercial bank of 70% of
total
capital expenditure which is Rs. 56.01 million. For that necessary assumption like
debt rate/
loan rate, moratorium period, loan term needs to take into consideration for loan /
debt
repayment. For that, have to prepare debt/ loan repayment schedule so that final
cash flow
amount can be estimation can be accurate.
Here, estimated construction period is 1.8 year so moratorium period also assumed
for 1 year.
And at 10 % interest rate, first installment will be paid from 28 JUL, 2022.
Interest
installment will be year wise. So, there are total 12 installments in 12 years
which need to pay
back to the bank with principle amount at 10% of compound interest rate.
To prepare the schedule in model, interest payment (IPMT) formula and principle
payment
(PPMT) formula should be used in excel.
From table no. 14 , it is cleared that for the debt of Rs. 56.01 million, interest
at 10% interest
rate for 12 year in 12 terms will be 42.68 million. This payment will be made from
the profit
earned from the project.
4) Cash flow
The cash flow projections include the amount of funds needed for startup and
identifies
where these monies will come from. The amount of equity capital is determined along
with
the amount and source of all borrowed funds and leases.
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From the above fin flow statement, it’s clearly shows that payback period is of
twelve years.
In Twelve years, company can pay the interest and principal payment from the
revenue it will
generate by selling the flats.
Here, final project cash flow is Negative for the year 2020 because in the year
2020
construction will just be started so there will be no revenue during the
construction time
period. After completion of construction in 2021, cash flow shows positive values.
This
means in from 2022, bank have cash on hand which shows that project is financially
feasible.
The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) is defined as net operating income divided
by total
debt service. it is the amount of cash flow available to meet annual interest and
principal
payments on debt, including sinking fund payments.
• DSCR < 1: You have negative cash flow. You don’t have enough income to service
all of
your debt.
• DSCR = 1: You have exactly enough cash coming in to service your debt, but you
don’t
have additional cash cushion.
• DSCR > 1: You have positive cash flow. The higher you’re DSCR, the more income
you
have to pay off your debt
In this project, Net operating income (EBITDA – Tax) is 10.72 and total debt
service
(interest+ principal) is 8.23 for the year 2022. So, the DSCR for that year will be
1.30. This
means the business has 130% more incoming cash flow than needed to cover debt
payments
for the year 2022. Similarly, for remaining year business has 141%, 152%, and 164%
more
incoming cash flow than needed to cover debt payments for the year 2023, 2024, and
2025
respectively. The DSCR increasing on each year as the net operating income is
increasing.
The internal rate of return rule is a guideline for evaluating whether to proceed
with a project
or investment. The IRR rule states that if the internal rate of return on a project
or investment
is greater than the minimum required rate of return, typically the cost of capital,
and then the
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project or investment should be pursued. Conversely, if the IRR on a project or
investment is
lower than the cost of capital, then the best course of action may be to reject it.
IRR is the rate of return that yields a net present value (NPV) of zero. A project
is feasible if
the IRR is greater than the interest rate you can borrow at. IRR is an indicator of
how
efficiently the capital is used in a business.
The Net Present Value (NPV) is defined as the sum of the present values of the
individual
cash flows (both incoming and outgoing) of a series of cash flows. And the Present
Value is
defined as the current worth of a future sum of money or stream of cash flows at a
certain
discount rate.
IRR represents the time adjusted earnings over project life. It is that rate that
equates the
present value of cash inflows to the present value of cash outflows of the project.
Or in other
words, the discount rate that set sets NPV of cash flows to zero.
In the calculation of IRR, a distinction is made in Project IRR and Equity IRR. As
the name
suggests, the project and equity IRRs differ in terms of the cash inflows. Project
IRR signifies
returns to all investors in the project. For the Project IRR, the cash flows
considered would be
the ones directly benefiting the project. Equity IRR measures the returns for the
shareholders
of company, after the debt has been paid off. Therefore, the latter is based on the
free cash
flows of equity holders.
Results:
Equity IRR – 20.95%
Project IRR – 12.22%
For this project, Project IRR (12.22%) is greater than discount rate (10%) and
Equity IRR is
(20.95%). So, the project is feasible.
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34
Real estate development can be very exciting and profitable. It can also be
difficult and risky.
Ultimately, the two main goals for a developer and his or her lender are to
mitigate risk and
maximize profit. In order to accomplish those goals, a forthright and accurate
comparison
needs to be made between potential home buyers and the competition and future
competition
for those home buyers. Without this information, it is difficult for any developer
to determine
the proposed market they need to capture and the feasibility of a project.
Study of Residential suggest that, it is not that much easy to predict the
feasibility of project.
To check the feasibility of such project, there is need to list out those factors
which cannot be
control by project promoters, but such factors greatly affect on the project cash
flows. And
after determining those factors, we would able to perform sensitivity analysis of
such project.
The report involves the financial modeling and analysis of 50 flats housing in
Gurugram,
Haryana IN. For the project non-recourse debt is beneficial as it need huge
investment. By
taking appropriate assumptions and data provided in, financial model is prepared.
Financial
viability of the project is determined by calculating the cash flow statement, DSCR
and IRR.
The finding of the calculation is as below:
Equity IRR for the project is 20.95% and Project IRR for the project is 12.22%.
DSCR is
for the year 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 is 1.30, 1.41, 1.52 and 1.64 respectively.
The project
has a minimum DSCR is 1.30 and average DSCR ratio is 1.88.
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Bibliography:
1) https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/wealth/personal-finance-news/real-estate-
gets-
highest-investment-in-
haryana/articleshow/8445499.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&ut
m_campaign=cppst
2) http://plannersweb.com/2013/12/pro-forma-101-how-much-money/
3) http://plannersweb.com/2013/12/proforma-101-getting-familiar-with-a-basic-tool-
of-real-
estate-analysis/
4) Pimpri Chinchwad Branch of WIRC of ICAI and CREDAI and Builders Association of
Pimpri Chinwad on 22nd April, 2017
5) http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/noida/7400cr-infra-plans-for-GB-
Nagar/articleshow/46449939.cms
6) https://plus.google.com/+EntrepreneurIndiaNewDelhi
7) https://www.linkedin.com/company/niir-project-consultancy-services
8) http://www.cci.in/pdf/surveys_reports/real-estate-sector-india.pdf
9) http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SouthAsiaExt/Resources/223546-
1269620455636/6907265-
1284569649355/Chapter1SARHousingFinanceOctober2010.pdf
10) http://www.niua.org/db_main.asp
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Prepared by: Sapna Joshi
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