In December 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei

Province, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pand
strategy for the mitigation and control of the pandemic.
Here, we propose the use of a novel SIR model with different characteristics. One of
the major assumptions of the classic SIR model is that there is a homogeneous mixing of the infected and susceptib
government authorities to control the spread of COVID-19.
2
1.5
_!
0
0                                  
0 50 100 150 200
days elapsed
Deaths D
12 F
10
50 100 150 200
days elapsed
Susceptible Populful S
15
0                                    
0 50 100 150 200
days elapsed
S1artdate 22.Ja
5 M !
,.
I " ;-
F
J     
5

I
U A M

J J/
F

I
08
en 0.6
0.4
02
0                                                       
150 200 0 50 100 150 200
ays elapsed days elapsed
MOOEL PAAAl.tETERS
1(1);2e-06 f ;7.40e•05 a ;0.178 b;0.015 DATA 14.Jun-2020
J ;1178866 R;857309 0;117696 \« ;2153871
percent Active= 54.7 Recoveries: 39.8 Deaths= 5.5
MOOEL PREOJCTJCNl 09-Aug-2020
J ;511149 R;1484218 0;119804 \ ;2115171
Peak 10.Jun-2020 1,...;11809'7
percenLAdive; 24.2 Recoveries; 70.2 Deaths; 5.7

from 22 January to 9 August,2020 with datafrom January to June,

###
a:
C/J
>
0

E
6
2 x 10

10
0

.s 0
= 120000
 0
0 0.5 1.5 2
infections 1 6
5
'tl

0
k = 4 .00e-06
0.5 1.5 2
x 106
2

a:
tot x 10

removals I\, x 106

(a)
C/J
>
0

E
<..I.>..
0
0 5 10
active infections x 105

(b)
USA: (a) Nonlinear fitting with using a trial-and-error method to estimate the number of
deaths, D from the removed population, Rm (see text for the details). (b) Plots of the number of removals, Rm against the cumu
As of early June, 2020, the peak number of infections has not been reached. When a
peak in the data is not reached, it is more difficult to fit the model predictions to the data. In the model, it is necessar
periods shows clearly that the spread of the virus is not under control.
In the USA, by the end of May, 2020, the number of active infected cases has not yet
pea ked and the cumulative total number of infections keeps getting bigger. This can be accounted for in the SIR mo
virus under control.
Corona virus is shaking up business and consumer behavior on a massive scale. Both the
public and private sectors are scrambling to slow the spread of the illness a nd contain COVID-19 infections. While t
Impact of pandemic on primary, secondary and tertiary sectors
Primary sectors:
Agriculture: A global market downturn for hotels and restaurants has seen agricultural product
prices plunge by 20 percent in 2020. The supply chains have failed to operate accurately, and vast amounts of food
Petroleum and oil: The oil-price war is expected to have significant consequences for the global
economy in the light of the pandemic, which is already dampening oil demand.
Secondary sectors:
Manufacturing industry: Due to the instability of supply chains and self-isolation policies,
import problems and personnel shortages stood out as the main challenges for companies.
Tertiary sectors:
Education: UNESCO reports that the closing of educational institutions has impacted up to 900
million students. COVID-19 has affected social mobility, with schools no longer being able to afford free school mea
Healthcare: For healthcare systems worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an
unparalleled problem. One of the most significant drawbacks in healthcare systems worldwide is the risk to healthca
Pharmaceutical industry: Opportunities have concurrently arisen for companies involved in
vaccine and drug production.
Hospitality, tourism, and aviation: Currently, the tourism sector is one of the hardest hit by the
COVID-19 outbreak, affecting travel supply and demand. The World Travel and Tourism Council have warned, as a
According to IMF 2020 estimates, global GDP growth for 2020 was projected to be 1.6
percent, a figure that was 2.9 percent in 2019. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimate
mber 2019, a novel strand of Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) was identified in Wuhan, Hubei
e, China causing a severe and potentially fatal respiratory syndrome, i.e., COVID-19. Since then, it has become a pandemic declared by Wo
for the mitigation and control of the pandemic.
we propose the use of a novel SIR model with different characteristics. One of
or assumptions of the classic SIR model is that there is a homogeneous mixing of the infected and susceptible populations and
ment authorities to control the spread of COVID-19.

100 150 200

40e•05 a ;0.178 b;0.015 DATA 14.Jun-2020

57309 0;117696 \« ;2153871
= 54.7 Recoveries: 39.8 Deaths= 5.5
EOJCTJCNl 09-Aug-2020
84218 0;119804 \ ;2115171

24.2 Recoveries; 70.2 Deaths; 5.7

9 August,2020 with datafrom January to June,

 1.5 2

5 10

) Nonlinear fitting with using a trial-and-error method to estimate the number of

D from the removed population, Rm (see text for the details). (b) Plots of the number of removals, Rm against the cumulative total infection
arly June, 2020, the peak number of infections has not been reached. When a
the data is not reached, it is more difficult to fit the model predictions to the data. In the model, it is necessary to add a few sur
shows clearly that the spread of the virus is not under control.
USA, by the end of May, 2020, the number of active infected cases has not yet
d and the cumulative total number of infections keeps getting bigger. This can be accounted for in the SIR model by considering
nder control.
virus is shaking up business and consumer behavior on a massive scale. Both the
and private sectors are scrambling to slow the spread of the illness a nd contain COVID-19 infections. While the full economic c
of pandemic on primary, secondary and tertiary sectors

ure: A global market downturn for hotels and restaurants has seen agricultural product
plunge by 20 percent in 2020. The supply chains have failed to operate accurately, and vast amounts of food have started to be
um and oil: The oil-price war is expected to have significant consequences for the global
my in the light of the pandemic, which is already dampening oil demand.
dary sectors:
cturing industry: Due to the instability of supply chains and self-isolation policies,
problems and personnel shortages stood out as the main challenges for companies.

on: UNESCO reports that the closing of educational institutions has impacted up to 900
students. COVID-19 has affected social mobility, with schools no longer being able to afford free school mea ls, social exclusion
care: For healthcare systems worldwide, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an
leled problem. One of the most significant drawbacks in healthcare systems worldwide is the risk to healthcare staff.
aceutical industry: Opportunities have concurrently arisen for companies involved in
e and drug production.
ality, tourism, and aviation: Currently, the tourism sector is one of the hardest hit by the
-19 outbreak, affecting travel supply and demand. The World Travel and Tourism Council have warned, as a direct consequenc
ng to IMF 2020 estimates, global GDP growth for 2020 was projected to be 1.6
, a figure that was 2.9 percent in 2019. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development estimated that the virus's s
come a pandemic declared by World Health Organization (WHO) on March 11, which has spread around the globe. WHO published in its w

nd susceptible populations and that the total population is constant in time. In the classic SIR model, the susceptible population
inst the cumulative total infections ltot and current active cases I.

is necessary to add a few surge periods. This is because new epicenters of the virus arose at different times. The virus started

n the SIR model by considering how the susceptible population changes with time in May. During that time, to match the data to

ons. While the full economic consequences of this black swan event are still unclear, we know that the effects that the virus-and

unts of food have started to be wasted, resulting in substantial losses for Indian farmers.

school mea ls, social exclusion, and school dropout rates for children from low­income families.

to healthcare staff.
arned, as a direct consequence of COVID-19, which 50 million jobs in the global travel and tourism sector could be at risk. It is

ent estimated that the virus's spread 2020 could cost the global economy up to $2 trillion. The pandemic could cause a recessio
globe. WHO published in its website preliminary guidelines with public health care for the countries to deal with the pandemic since then, t

, the susceptible population decreases monotonically towards zero. However, these assumptions are not valid in the case of th
rent times. The virus started spreading in Washington State, followed by California, New York, Chicago and the southern states

hat time, to match the data to the model predictions, surge periods were used where the normalized susceptible population S w

the effects that the virus-and the drastic measures being taken to contain it-are already precipitating change across industries.
sector could be at risk. It is projected that if the COVID-19 pandemic continues into the second quarter of 2020, Vietnam's tour

emic could cause a recession in some countries, causing global economic growth to fall below 2.5%. Ever since 1870, the glob
with the pandemic since then, the infectious disease has become a public health threat. Italy and USA are severely affected by COVID-19 . M

re not valid in the case of the spread of the COVID-19 virus, since new epicentres spring up around the globe at different times
cago and the southern states of the USA. The need to add surge

d susceptible population S was reset to 0.2 every four days. What is currently happening in the USA is that as susceptible indivi

g change across industries.

arter of 2020, Vietnam's tourist industry will experience a $5billion loss. The Asia Pacific Aviation Centre (CAPA} has assessed

%. Ever since 1870, the global economy has experienced 14 global recessions. Current projections suggest that the worldwide
verely affected by COVID-19 . Millions of people are forced by national governments to stay in self-isolation and in difficult conditions . The

d the globe at different times. To account for this, the SIR model that we propose here does not consider the total population an
A is that as susceptible individuals become infected, their population decreases, with these infected individuals mixing with the
entre (CAPA} has assessed that the Indian aviation industry will report staggering losses worth almost $4 billion this year.

suggest that the worldwide recession of COVID-19 would be the fourth deepest and most extreme since the Second World Wa
and in difficult conditions . The disease is growing fast in many countries around the world. In the absence of availability of a proper medicin

nsider the total population and takes the susceptible population as a variable that can be adjusted at various times to account fo
individuals mixing with the general population, leading to an increase in the susceptible population. This is shown in the mod
ost $4 billion this year.

since the Second World War during this time. It is estimated that per capita output contractions are involved in an unprecedent
 availability of a proper medicine or vaccine, currently social distancing, self-quarantine and wearing a face mask have been emerged as th

at various times to account for new infected individuals spreading throughout a community, resulting in an increase in the susce
on. This is shown in the model by the variable for the susceptible population, S, varying from about 0.06 to 0.20, repeatedly dur
e involved in an unprecedentedly high proportion of countries.
mask have been emerged as the most widely-used

g in an increase in the susceptible population, i.e., to the so-called surges. The SIR model we introduce here is given by the sam
0.06 to 0.20, repeatedly during May until this vicious cycle is broken, the cumulative total infected population will keep growin
duce here is given by the same simple system of three ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with the classic SIR model and ca
population will keep growing at a steady rate and not reach an almost steady-state. The fluctuating normalized susceptible v
he classic SIR model and can be used to gain a better understanding of how the virus spreads within a community of variable p
ng normalized susceptible variable provides clear evidence that government authorities do not have the spread of the
in a community of variable populations in time, when surges occur. Importantly, it can be used to make predictions of the numb
ot have the spread of the
make predictions of the number of infections and deaths that may occur in the future and provide an estimate of the time scale fo
estimate of the time scale for the duration of the virus within a community. It also provides us with insights on how we might les
insights on how we might lessen the impact of the virus, what is nearly impossible to discern from the recorded data alone! Con
he recorded data alone! Consequently, our SIR model can provide a theoretical framework and predictions that can be used
predictions that can be used by