Data Analysis and Interpretation

The EOTHO Scheme was an essential economic strategy used by the United Kingdom

government to enhance stability and growth in the economy while investing subsidies on meals

in the food and service sector. These programs had a significant effect on different aspects of the

economy and social life of people. These include interactions of people in outdoor activities,

employment statistics, restaurant business operations, and growth. Consumer price inflation was

also affected (Keane, 2020). Also, the hospitality venues such as restaurant business activities

responded differently to EOTHO in lockdown and non-locked down locations. To further delve

into the analysis of the program in different locations, a T-test was done through excel. For this

reason, I did not involve manual calculations of different variables. The test aimed at examining

the relationship of EOTHO to business operations in both lockdown centers and those that were

not under lockdown. Before the excel analysis, I plotted the data on meals sold in different

locations in August to have an overview of the performance of the program in the days included

in the survey, August 1st,5th,12th,18th, and 30th.

 Chart Title
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

MA1 MA5 MA12 MA18 MA30

From this chart, the noticeable high is in the meals sold on 1 st August which communicates the

excitement people had over the fact that they had a chance to purchase meals at low prices and

save money. The low sales on other dates of August were affected by factors such as the

increased COVID cases coupled with fewer visits to restaurants and eateries in different

locations. Relatively, the excitement of people visiting restaurants might have decreased with the

knowledge that the scheme was to end in the same month. A notable aspect is the increased rate

of unemployment towards the end of EOTHO which left the food and service business with a

shortage of labor hence a decline in service provision and revenue earnings. Decreased sales in

the latter days may have also been due to a fall in the number of meals prepared for sale.

The data used for this analysis were collected through surveys and a set of 14 restaurant and

food and service venues was selected as shown below. The average calculation was done in excel
to combine sales figures for the four dates to be used for the t-test in two groups, Lockdown and

Not on Lockdown.

Averag

Restaurants Location MA1 MA5 MA12 MA18 MA30 e

1 L 15 8 8 5 12 9.6
2 L 15 8 6 3 4 7.2
3 L 12 9 4 4 2 6.2
4 L 250 0 0 0 0 50
5 L 400 0 0 0 0 80
6 L 7 5 4 5 6 5.4
7 L 12 13 21 15 5 13.2
8 NL 13 16 20 13 12 14.8
9 NL 34 38 28 18 15 26.6
10 NL 16 19 22 14 16 17.4
11 NL 13 12 14 11 4 10.8
12 NL 23 20 26 18 12 19.8
13 NL 0 0 0 0 0 0
14 NL 0 0 0 0 0 0

Restaurant Codes

1. Contour Café

2. Bistro Verde

3. The cult of coffee

4. Scotia

5. Drummond

6. Latin Way
7. Mi Amore

8. The coffee Apothecary

9. Old pier Coffee House

10. Waterfront Café Bar

11. Molly’s Café Bar

12. Bistro 1905

13. Green Pastures Café

14. Low Traditional Fish and Chips

Location codes

On Lockdown (L)

Not on Lockdown (NL)

Meal Sales

MA1: Meals sold in 1st August

MA5: Meals sold in 5th August

MA12: Meals sold on 12th August

MA18: Meals sold on 18th August

MA30: Meals sold on 30th August

T-test

t-Test: Two-Sample Assuming Equal Variances

  9.6 14.8
12.433

Mean 27 33
963.93 118.29

Variance 6 47
Observations 6 6
541.11

Pooled Variance 53
Hypothesized Mean Difference 0
df 10
1.0846

t Stat 16
0.1517

P(T<=t) one-tail 74
1.8124

t Critical one-tail 61
0.3035

P(T<=t) two-tail 48
t Critical two-tail 2.2281  
 39

Null Hypothesis: The EOTHO program scheme was not effective

In this test, six restaurants from locations on lockdown and the other six from locations with no

lockdown were used. The locations that took part in the study were Aberdeen City center (under

lockdown), Ellon city center, University of Aberdeen and West hill town. From the results of the

Two-sample t-test assuming equal variances, the mean of locations on lockdown during the

program is 27 , and that of locations that were not on lockdown in the event of EOTHO is

12.43333. The hypothesized mean difference records 0 because of the null hypothesis that was

developed. The level of significance from the t-test was α=0.05.p value is the probability that the

null hypothesis will occur. Comparing p (P (T<=t) two-tail) = 0.30354)8 with α=0.05, I observed

that the p value was more than the level of significance (α=0.05). Since the p value was larger

than the level of significance, I accept the null hypothesis that the EOTHO program scheme was

not effective.

Hence in this test: p value ≤ α

This gives a translation of the general effectiveness of EOTHO in the locations with restaurants

that participated in the survey. The average of meal sales for restaurants that were not on

lockdown was more than those that were under lockdown. This is 14.8 and 9.6 respectively. This

indicates the average of the former was larger due to the overall higher meal sales recorded than

the latter. A normal observation of meal sales for both locations on lockdown and those which

were not on lockdown shows that meals sales at the beginning of EOTHO were more and

continued to decrease towards the end.

With a close analysis of the factors that contributed to the acceptance of the null hypothesis, I

found out that the general effectiveness of the EOTHO scheme was affected by relative inherent

aspects. The United Kingdom government had failed to sufficiently plan for this scheme as a

strategy to combat COVID because it did not last for a longer time. This suggests that the

government might have considered this a short term solution to give the economy of the food

and service industry a boost. The poor planning may have resulted in inefficiency in terms of

injecting sufficient funds to sustain EOTHO for a longer period beyond August. For this reason,

the United Kingdom economic policies implementation had not fully worked towards preparing

for the full implementation of EOTHO. Also, the short life of the program might have been due

to a depletion of funds that the government had allocated for the purpose of subsidizing the 50%

cut on meals offered by restaurants that participated.

Additionally, some locations were under lockdown for most of the period in August during the

EOTHO program. The Aberdeen center was one of the locked-down locations. For this reason,

this environment restricted the free operation of businesses in this center since there were limited

hours for operation. Consequently, the number of services offered by restaurants in these

locations was reduced and the number of meals served on normal days was cut down to

considerable amounts. The reduction of services and meals offered was necessary so that

restaurants could operate within the time limits set for lockdown COVID restrictions.

Additionally, the number of walk-ins by regular and new customers into restaurants in the

lockdown center was reduced. This is because of the presence of restrictions on time spent out

served as a limitation on the visits to restaurants. Also, the peak business hours of business were

affected. This is because the revenue that restaurants in locked-down areas used to earn during

normal peak hours was now reduced. As most people no longer spent longer evening hours in
restaurants and bars after a long day at work. It is critical to understand that the food and service

industry depends on footfall for sales and continued operation. Therefore the decreased visits

negatively affected restaurant turnover in the lockdown centre.

The influx of meals sold in the locations that were not under lock down was because of the free

movement of customers and the sufficient hours of business operations. Therefore, restaurants

provided meals and food services to full capacity as the consumption rate was high. This was

also asa result of the non-restricted time of operating business which allowed restaurants to

sufficiently sell. Also people felt free to walk in and spend time in restaurants because they were

not worried about lockdown restrictions as in other centers. Significant studies and reports have

expanded on the ineffective effects of the EOTHO scheme economically to businesses and

people.

According to González et al. (2021) in a report, Recovering from the first Covid-19 lockdown:

Economic impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help out scheme, EOTHO led to the increase of

recreational based footfall by a range of 5% to 6%.However, people were discouraged when the

program came to an end and as a result reduced their outdoor activities including restaurant

visits. The program had also led to an increase in employment opportunities in the food service

industry. Job listings on the United Kingdom Indeed website increased by a range of 7% to 14%

at the beginning and continuity of the program. This means that the program brought about an

increase in employments in the month of August for the food and service sector. The report

further illustrates that although the EOTHO program was short-lived, there exists a gap in

research of the sustenance of jobs after it had ended. Hutton (2021) on a research briefing in the

House of Commons Library presents that EOTHO scheme had a boost on the economy, however

visits to food service venues decreased from mid-September due to the lockdown restrictions.
Fetzer (2020) in a cage working paper issue 517, Subsidizing the spread of COVID19: Evidence

from the UK’s Eat-Outto-Help-Out scheme, reports that locations with restaurants that were

actively operating registered an increase in COVID infections following seven days after

EOTHO had begun. In this paper, Fetzer (2020) also reports that after the Eat Out TO Help Out

program ended, there was a relative decrease in restaurant visits. An indication that the positive

contributions of the scheme to the economy were limited. The heavy impact that people were

obligated to get used to again was the paying of full VAT and complete prices for meals in

restaurants.

The Eat Out to Help Out program should be a stepping stone to enhance planning of the

development of robust economic policies in the midst of a pandemic such as COVID-19.The

evidence of poor planning stems from the fact that even though £849 million was the total

claims from over 78,116 outlets, only £840 million was paid. This was due to aspects such as

errors in payments and cancellation of claims (Hutton, 2021).The government of the United

Kingdom policy development affairs should be taken critically with thorough prior planning and

strategies for implementation. The coupling of EOTHO scheme practices with COVID-19

measures such as social distancing and long-term engagement of the program would have been

more effective. Because this program was effective for a while, it is necessary to heighten its

economic value by identifying limitations in its procedures and brainstorming on corrective

measures. I believe that the adjustments on EOTHO scheme from planning to implementation

might prove significant in working for growth other sectors of the United Kingdom economy. In

addition to this, the involvement of public opinion and thoughts on a policy is a great approach to

identifying strengths and weaknesses before implementing. This would have vital for opening up

suggestions to correcting weaknesses in the scheme. EOTHO attributes if identified closely are
probable topics for robust studies in business and economics.The issues revolving around

EOTHO scheme have not been sufficiently explored and criticized in research studies and

economic journals. For this reason, research studies in the future should focus more on different

effects of the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme on economical attributes and propose necessary

policy changes that might sync with the program. This will serve as sources of academic

references and development of other relevant economic policies in future.

References

Fetzer, T. (2020). Subsidizing the Spread of Covid19: Evidence from the UK's Eat-out To-help-

out Scheme. University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

González-Pampillón, N., Nunez-Chaim, G., & Ziegler, K. (2021). Recovering from the First

Covid-19 Lockdown: Economic Impacts of the UK's Eat Out to Help Out Scheme. Centre for

Economic Performance, London School of Economics and Political Science.

Hutton, G. (2021, September 16). Eat Out to Help Out Scheme. House of Commons Library.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8978/

Keane, K. (2020, October 20). Impacts of Eat Out to Help Out on consumer prices. Ons.gov.uk;

Office for National Statistics.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/articles/priceseconomicanalysis

quarterly/october2020
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