Why study uncertainty?

• What is the mass of this object?

Measurement Uncertainty

Introduction

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What is the measurement

Experiment: result?
• Each person take
• ___________
one reading
• Do not divulge • Meyers
• Pass after noting
• Make a histogram or
dot plot

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Why measurement
uncertainty?
• How good is the result?
• Is the result significantly different?
• How can we compare measurement
results?
• Is the procedure sufficient?
• How can we improve the procedure?
How good is the result?
• The diameter of this shaft is 50.0128
mm
• How good is this result?
• Can anybody else decide?
• No, only the person measuring can
judge

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 Is the result significantly How can we compare
different? measurement results?
• Uncertainty approach test on Population • Uncertainty approach test on Difference
Mean, Variance Unknown in Means, Variance Unknown

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What is
Is the procedure sufficient?
Measurement Uncertainty?
• The distance between two bores is
specified as 100 +/-0.02 mm.
• the quantification of
• Vernier enough?
the doubt about the
• CMM? measurement result

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Error vs Uncertainty?

True value

E Uncertainty estimation

Some examples

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 ISO 9001:2000 Clause 7.6 Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty
in Measurement: 2008
• The organization shall determine the • First published 1995 • ILAC - International
• BIPM - Bureau Laboratory Accreditation
monitoring and measurement to be Cooperation (2005)
International des Poids
undertaken and the monitoring and et Mesures • IUPAC - International
measuring devices needed to provide • IEC - International Union of Pure and
evidence of conformity of product to Electrotechnical Applied Chemistry
Commission • IUPAP - International
determined requirements Union of Pure and
• IFCC - International
Federation of Clinical Applied Physics
Chemistry • OIML - International
• ISO - International Organization of Legal
Organization for Metrology
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Standardization

Measurement Uncertainty The parameter

• VIM Defn • Could be
– a standard deviation
– Half width of an interval
– Any, which characterizes the spread of
distribution

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Why does uncertainty occur? Sources of error and uncertainty in

dimensional calibrations
• Reference standards and
Instrument Object
instrumentation
Bias
Wear
Unstable
Incomplete definition
• Thermal effects
Calibration
Measurement Uncertainty • Elastic compression
Temp
Skill
Sampling
• Alignment errors
Environment Operator Process • Geometric errors
– UKAS M3003 Dec 1997

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Sources of error and uncertainty in Sources of error and uncertainty in
temperature calibrations mass calibrations
• Calibration of • Contributions of • Reference weight calibration
reference thermometer to be
• Secular stability of reference weights
thermometer calibrated
• Measuring • Mathematical • Weighing machine / weighing process
instruments interpretation • Air buoyancy effects
• Further influences – UKAS M3003 Dec • Environment
– Drift since calibration 1997
– UKAS M3003 Dec 1997
– Resolution
Video 1
– Temp gradients
– Self heating
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Sources of error and uncertainty in

Distribution
electrical calibrations
• Instrument • Loading and lead • The shape of the different measured
Calibration impedance quantity values
• Secular Stability • RF mismatch errors
• Measurement and uncertainty
Conditions • Directivity
• Interpolation of • Test port match
calibration data • RF Connector
• Resolution repeatability
• Layout of apparatus – UKAS M3003 Dec
1997
• Thermal emfs
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Normal distribution Uniform distribution

• Likely to be in the • Equally likely at any
middle point
• Resultant of a large • Digital output
number of small
causes, none
dominant
• Very common

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 Triangular distribution Standard uncertainty
• Sum of two • VIM Defn
dominant
• Uncertainty of the result of a
rectangular
distributions measurement expressed as a standard
deviation
– GUM 2.3.1 (2008)
• Denoted by u

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Combined standard uncertainty Expanded uncertainty

• VIM Defn • VIM definition
• Standard uncertainty of the result of a • Quantity defining an interval about the
measurement when that result is obtained result of a measurement that may be
from the values of a number of other expected to encompass a large fraction
quantities, equal to the positive square root of a sum of
terms, the terms being the variances or covariances of these
of the distribution of values that could
other quantities weighted according to how the measurement be reasonably be attributed to the
result varies with changes in these quantities measurand
– GUM 2.3.4 (2008) – GUM 2.3.5 (2008)
• Denoted by uc • Denoted by U

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Coverage Interval How to evaluate uncertainty?

• VIM definition • Type A
• Usual practice: 95% – By statistical analysis of a series of
observations
– probability density function derived from
an observed frequency distribution
• Type B
– By means other than statistical analysis
– assumed probability density function based
on the degree of belief that an event will
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 Do not mix up!
• Random and systematic components of
uncertainty do not correspond to Type
A and Type B.
• Type A Evaluation
• Type A Regression
• Type B Evaluation

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