Resource Models Tutorial 4.

Table 1 (below) provides the coal production data for India (annually from 1939 and a few earlier years) in million tonnes

Year 1868 1890 1900 1910 1930 1939 1940 1941 1942 1943 1944 1945 1946 1947
P 0.1 2 0.6 12 22 28 29 29 29 26 26 29 30 30
Year 1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961
P 30 31 32 34 36 36 37 38 40 44 46 48 55 55
Year 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
P 63 65 63 68 68 69 71 76 73 72 77 78 88 100
Year 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989
P 101 101 102 104 114 124 138 141 155 154 166 180 195 201
Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
P 212 229 238 246 254 270 286 296 292 300 310 323 337 356
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
P 383 407 431 456 493 532 533 540 556 571 612 639 658 675
For 2018 and 2019 the production was constant at 729 million tonnes

a) Consider the compound annual growth rate during 2000-2019. Assuming exponential growth at this constant growth, estimate
the time coal reserves will last. Consider a reserve estimate of only the proven reserves of 156,000 million tonnes in 2019. Use this
model to project the coal production in 2030.
b) Take T=0 at 1940 and the cumulative production of coal Qp(0) = 100 million tonnes fit a Pearl curve Qp = Q∞/ (1+Ae-bt)
Consider a reserve estimate of only the proven reserves of156,000 million tonnes. Determine the co-efficients a,b. Determine
the peaking time and the maximum annual production rate. Use this model to project the coal production in 2030. Determine
the uncertainty in these estimates.
c) Compare this with the peaking time computed in a)
d) Is the Pearl curve sensitive to the assumption of the reserves? Explain with different reserve estimates
e) Would the results be different if a Gompertz curve is fitted to the data?