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Modelling Household Fertility Decision With Generalized Poisson Regression
Modelling Household Fertility Decision With Generalized Poisson Regression
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 1 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Outline
1 Introduction
3 Methodology
5 Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 2 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Introduction
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 3 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Literature Review
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 4 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Data Source
I Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2011
Dependent Variable
I Children (counts)
Independent Variables
I Employed
I Education
I Status
I Residence
I Religion
I Mother’s Age
I Media
I Age Difference
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 5 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Exploratory Analysis
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 6 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Exploratory Analysis
Mean Variance
2.31 1.76
Since Variance < Mean, there exists under-dispersion, so we can fit either
poisson regression or generalized poisson regression.
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 7 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Methodology
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 8 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Methodology
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 8 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
exp(−λi )λyi i
Pr (Yi = yi ) = yi = 0, 1, 2, . . . (1)
yi !
With mean and the variance are equal
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 9 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
λyi i yi (1 + αyi )
Pr (Yi = yi ) = exp(− ), yi = 0, 1, 2, . . . (3)
yi ! (1 + αλi ) (1 + αλi )
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 10 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 11 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 12 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Deviance 3187.489
Pearson Chi-Square 3174.836
DF 8856
Log Likelihood -12728.585
AIC 25483.169
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 13 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 14 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Deviance 1946.718
Pearson Chi-Square 1938.991
DF 8856
Log Likelihood -7773.821
AIC 15573.642
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 15 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Interpretation
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 16 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Interpretation...cont.
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 17 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Hypothesis:
H0 : α = 0 vs H1 : α 6= 0
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 18 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 19 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
The generalized poisson model is also preferred than the poisson model
based on goodness-of-fit measures Deviance and AIC.
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 20 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
Conclusions
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 21 / 23
Introduction Data and Variables Methodology Analysis and Results Conclusions
References
Md. Maidul Husain (I.S.R.T., DU) Modelling Household Fertility Decision August 24, 2015 23 / 23