Outline

• What is food security

• Food Security, Human Security
• Global Food Security – Trends
• Rising Food Prices and Poverty
• Population Growth and Urbanization
• Rising Incomes and Changing Diets
• Biofuel Production, Land Use Change and Access to Land
• Climate Change
• Emerging Responses to Calls for Global Food Security
 Early 21st Century
• Food Production enough to feed 7 Billion
• 870 million suffer from hunger
Global Crop Production
(in trillions of Calories)

• Availability of food to meet

demand at macro level not
enough to prevent hunger
and malnourishment at the
local level

Source: World Resources Institute

• Food systems comprise a range of socio-

economic, political and ecological activities
and outcomes
 What is food security?

“Food security is the availability Four key pillars of “Food security exists when all
at all times of adequate food people, at all times, have
supplies of basic foodstuffs to Food Security
physical, social and economic
sustain a steady expansion of access to sufficient, safe and
food consumption offset
fluctuations in productions and nutritious food that meets their

Availability

Utilization

Stability
dietary needs and food

Access
prices.”
preferences for an active and
healthy life.”
– FAO (1974) – FAO (2002)

3 paradigm shifts
1.Decline in entitlement cause lack of access to food - Amartya Sen (1981)
2.Livelihood security as key household priority and component
3.Access to food that is preferred
 Latin Western Northern Oceania
Western Northern Caucasus America and Asia Caucasus
Oceania Africa 0%
Asia Africa and and Central
1% Central
0% Number (Millions)
the 2%Regional
1% Share (%)
Asia
Latin 1% Carribbean
America
Regions Asia 1992-94 2014-16
4%
1992-94 2014-16
1% Developed
1% Developed Countries
Developed Countries
and the Regions 20 South- 15 2
Caribbean 2%
Southern Asia 2% 291 Eastern 281
Asia 28.8 35.4
[PERCENT Southern 8% Southern
AGE]Sub-Saharan Africa Asia
176 220 17.4 27.7 Asia
Eastern Asia 29% 295
Eastern Asia 145 29.2 18.3 36%
Southern-
South-Eastern Asia 13818% 61 13.6 7.6
Eastern
Latin America
Asia
and the Carribbean
1990–92 66 34 6.5 4.3
14%Western Asia 8 19 0.8
2014–16 2.4
Northern Africa
Eastern
Sub- 6
Sub-Saharan 4 0.6 0.5
Caucasus and Central Asia Saharan
Asia 10 Africa 6 0.9 0.7
Africa
29%Oceania 17% 1 28% 1 0.1 0.2
1011 795* 100 100

The changing distribution of hunger in
the world: numbers and shares of
undernourished people by region,
1990–92 and 2014–16
Notes: The areas of the pie charts are proportional to the total
number of undernourished in each period. Data for 2014–16 refer
to provisional estimates. All figures are rounded
*Includes data for Sudan, which are not included in the figure for sub-Saharan Africa,
following the partition of the country when South Sudan became an independent state
in 2011
 Food Security and Human Security
Link between poverty,
food security, and
Human Security human security:
• Safety from hunger, disease, repression
Food insecurity Food price spikes
• Denies basic functions of life
• Main cause – poverty
World population below
$1.90 per day (in %)

World global poverty line

• Poor households vulnerable to hunger

and malnourishment; cut spending on
education and healthcare
• May fuel civil unrest
 Rise in Food Prices and Poverty

After being almost stable for 20 years,

the FAO food price index more than
doubled between 2007 and 2008.

This was due to:

•high oil prices
•low food reserves
Source: World Resources Institute •protectionism
Population Growth and Urbanization The high density of people, jobs,
and assets which make cities so
successful, also makes them
vulnerable to the wide range of
natural and manmade shocks
and stresses increasingly
affecting them today.

Over half the world lives

in cities, and those cities are
responsible for over 80%
of global GDP.
Projected population growth
in billions
Improvements in health
decrease mortality rate, boost
life expectancy

Rural-urban migration:
Population in Asia expected to swell
Expansion of cities and slums- slum
another billion plus in four decades
dwellers to double in 2030

Increased demand for water,

environmental degradation,
pollution
Rising Incomes and Changing Diets

World’s per
capita meat
and milk
consumption
is growing

These foods
are more
People are eating more resource-
protein than they need – intensive to
especially in wealthy regions produce than
plant-based
diets.

– World Resources Institute

Animal-based foods are
more resource-intensive
than plant-based foods
 The Food Gap
Taking into account a growing
population and shifting diets,
the world will need to produce
69 percent more food calories
in 2050 than we did in 2006.
 Biofuel production triggered in 2004-5 Controversy in production: turning food into fuel
US and EU adopted policies and
incentives to boost biofuel consumption
– USAID (2009)

Biofuel Production, Land Use

Change and Access to Land
Biofuel reduces
dependence on
fossil fuels

Biofuel responsible for almost half

the increase in total consumption
of key food crops in 2006-2007
Another major challenge is
biofuels’ competition for
The Energy-Food Nexus
land and crops.
It would also Producing 10 percent of all transport fuels from biofuels
increase the food by 2050, as planned by some governments, would require
gap to roughly 32 percent of global crop production but
100 percent.
produce only 2 percent of global energy.
Conversely,
eliminating the use
of crop-based
biofuels for
transportation
would close the
food gap by roughly
14 percent.
 Impact of climate change
Global warming affects uneven across the regions
human health, livelihood
assets, food production and Poor, developing
distribution, purchasing countries most
power and market flows affected
• dependence on agriculture for
livelihood
Average global temperatures to rise • geographic location
• lack of adequate infrastructure
by 2-3∘C in the next four decades • homelessness
• Productivity of major crops drop with
small increases of average temperatures
Climate change is Climate Change and Water Stress
expected to
negatively impact
crop yields,
particularly in the
hungriest parts of
the world, such as
sub-Saharan
Africa.
Growing water use
and rising
temperatures are
expected to further
increase water
stress in many
agricultural areas by
2025.
Food’s Role in
Economic Development

Around 2 billion people are currently

employed in agriculture, many of them poor.

We need to close the food gap in

ways that enhance the livelihoods
of farmers, especially the poorest.
• By 2050, climate change impacts could increase the risk of food insecurity
by up to 20 percent.
• To adequately feed the global population in 2050, crop production would
have to double.
• Catches of the world's most relied-upon fish are expected to decrease by up
to 60 percent by 2050
• Livestock contributes almost 80 percent of agricultural methane emissions,
and about 66 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.
• Food loss or waste generates about 8 percent of annual greenhouse
emissions.
• 78 percent of the world's food-insecure people rely on agriculture for their
livelihoods.