International Journal of Pavement Engineering

ISSN: 1029-8436 (Print) 1477-268X (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/gpav20

A model for predicting the deterioration of the

pavement condition index

Arieh Sidess, Amnon Ravina & Eyal Oged

To cite this article: Arieh Sidess, Amnon Ravina & Eyal Oged (2020): A model for predicting the
deterioration of the pavement condition index, International Journal of Pavement Engineering

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2020.1714044

Published online: 16 Jan 2020.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING
https://doi.org/10.1080/10298436.2020.1714044

A model for predicting the deterioration of the pavement condition index

Arieh Sidessa, Amnon Ravinab and Eyal Ogedb
a
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion, Haifa, Israel; bGeokom Consultant, Ltd, Tirat Carmel, Haifa, Israel

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Road pavements continuously deteriorate mainly due to the combined influence of the traffic load and Received 16 June 2019
the environmental conditions. The pavement ability to satisfy the road user demands over its design Accepted 6 January 2020
life, expresses its performance level. The prediction of pavement performance level or performance
KEYWORDS
deterioration curves is a basic component of any Pavement Management System (PMS). This paper Pavement management
presents the development of a model for predicting the deterioration of the Pavement Condition Index system; pavement condition
(PCI), calibrating its parameters based on the pavement structural factors such as structural number, index; pavement
asphalt layer thickness, subgrade strength, and environmental conditions. The approach that was performance; deterioration
adopted for the PCI deterioration model development was based on the combination of the empirical- model; climate zone
mechanistic approach and the regressive empirical approach. The model’s predicted results were
compared with the measured results of road sections located in varied climate zones, which are
embedded in the PMS of Netivei Israel (NETI), National Company for Transport Infrastructures. The
comparison shows a very good correlation, and most of the predicted results are deviant within the
measurement and interpretation error range.

Introduction predicted values of pavement attributes, subjected to predeter-

One of the most profound challenges facing pavement man-
agers and engineers in the world is to maintain a high level
of service for their road networks. This can be achieved by
applying periodical preventive maintenance activities to
the pavements in order to reduce the rate of deterioration.
This challenge requires the existence of a Pavement Manage-
ment System (PMS), which includes a ‘set of tools or
methods that assist decision – makers in finding optimum
strategies for providing and maintaining pavement in a ser-
viceable condition over a given period of time’ (Haas et al.
1994).
Road pavements deteriorate due to many combined influ-
ences of the traffic cyclic loading, environment, pavement
structure, pavement surface type, subgrade type, maintenance
and rehabilitation (M&R) treatment, maintenance level and
so forth. The pavement’s ability to endure these conditions
and to satisfy the road users demands over its time of service
expresses its performance level. The models for predicting
pavement performance or deterioration curves is one of the
most critical and important foundations of the PMS. These
models are basically a mathematical description of the expected
values that a pavement attribute will take during a specified
analysis period (Hudson et al. 1979). In other words, the
models are a mathematical description that can be used to pre-
dict future pavement deterioration based on the present pave-
ment condition, deterioration factors and the effect of the
maintenance.
For several years Netivei Israel (NETI), National Company
for Transport Infrastructures, operates a PMS as an evaluation
tool for pavement M&R strategies. The PMS is based on the
mined criteria and constraints. Within this system, there are
embedded models for predicting two elements of pavements
deterioration: a model for predicting the deterioration of the
Pavement Condition Index (PCI) (Shahin 2005, ASTM
D6433–11) and a model for predicting the International Rough-
ness Index (IRI) deterioration. The PCI prediction model is a
regressive power curve whose coefficients were determined
from the engineering experience without any calibration to the
conditions of the country. The PCI prediction model is
expressed by the following equation:
PCI = 100 − A × (age)k (1)
where: age – refers to the number of years since construction or
major rehabilitation of the pavement, and A, k – are regression
coefficients which depend on the traffic volume.
A large number of survey cycles were applied measuring
damages in the entire road system across the country. Consid-
ering that the deterioration of the PCI curves existing in the
NETI – PMS were not calibrated, enhances the requirement
to update and to calibrate the PCI deterioration models based
on the aforesaid measurements.
This paper presents a study that was designated for the
development of a model for predicting PCI deterioration.
An effort was implemented to calibrate the parameters
based on the pavement structural factors such as the struc-
tural number of the pavement, the thickness of the asphalt
layer, the subgrade strength and the environmental
conditions.

CONTACT Arieh Sidess sidess@technion.ac.il

© 2020 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 A. SIDESS ET AL.
Approaches for predicting pavement performance
Pavement Performance is a measure of the in-service condition
of the pavement. Many different pavement performance
models (or design) are already available but, given the same
input data, they tend to produce a different output (predic-
tions). The development of a reliable and accurate deterioration
performance models needs several basic requirements associ-
ated with the model characteristics and the data input that
can be summarised as follows:
(a) An appropriate database of the road network, which the
model is supposed to represent based on high-precision
measurements.
(b) A wide and extensive data of dense measured values
throughout the network.
(c) The inclusion of all the variables that affect the pavement
performance level such as traffic volume and axle load dis-
tribution, environment, climate, construction (and main-
tenance) history, the structural strength of the pavement,
etc.
(d) The models should be based on fundamentally correct stan-
dard engineering principles to be reliable and acceptable.
(e) Easily adjustable model in accordance with available his-
torical data and the engineering knowledge of the local
materials, environmental effects, construction and main-
tenance practices, etc.
The performance prediction models which are commonly
used to predict the changes in the pavement condition, over a
future time period, can be classified into deterministic and
probabilistic models (Lytton 1987, Huang 1993, Haas et al.
1994). The deterministic models can be categorised into several
groups as shown in the following paragraphs:
(1) Mechanistic Models: These models are based on the prin-
ciple of mechanics and prediction of the pavement
response such as; deflections, stresses, and strains based
on the materials properties and the environmental con-
ditions. These critical responses are, in turn, used to pre-
dict the performance in terms of permanent deformation
(rutting) and crack propagation (fatigue cracking). How-
ever, due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration
process, this approach is, at the present, unfeasible.
(2) Empirical models: In empirical models, the dependent vari-
able or condition can be related, by regression analysis, to
one or more independent variable such as the age of the pave-
ment, applied loads, pavement layer thickness, etc. Most of
the models available in the literature are just linear combi-
nations of the available regressions. In the advanced better
empirical models, the specification forms are based on phys-
ical laws, or at least they intend to simulate the actual physical
process of deterioration. These models can be developed with
reasonable reliability when a long-term database with pave-
ment performance data has been populated. The implemen-
tation of these empirical models is limited by the span of the
database that was used in their development. These kinds of
regression equations are valid only under certain conditions
and should not be applied when the actual conditions are
different. One of the best-known examples of the empirical
models is the HDM – 3 and HDM – 4 developed by the
World Bank (Peterson 2001, Morosiuk et al. 2004). It should
be noted that the empirical models are the most used ones in
PMS applications through-out the different countries around
the world.
(3) Empirical – Mechanistic models: Empirical – Mechanistic
models are widely used in the pavements’ structure design.
These models are a combination of the mechanistic and the
empirical models together. These models set the regressive
dependence between the mechanical response, calculated
according to the mechanistic approach, and the pavement
structural or functional damage parameters measured
according to the empirical approach (for example predicting
the rutting, roughness and fatigue area in the AASHTO
Guide 2002, NCHRP 2004). The calculated mechanistic
response of the pavement is based on the material character-
isation of the pavement layers, usually laboratory testing and
linear elastic or finite element type models. The most
advanced models that use the mechanical-empirical
approach for the prediction of pavement performance are
the California models Ca/ME (Ullidtz et al. 2010), and
AASHTO Guide 2002 (NCHRP 37A 2004). The California
models enable the prediction of fatigue, rutting and reflec-
tion cracks. The AASHTO Guide 2002 models enable the
prediction of fatigue area, rutting, and roughness. Recently,
Uzan et al. (2014) and Uzan (2018) have developed and
implemented the models of the AASHTO Guide 2002, for
predicting the performance of flexible pavements using
the conditions in Israel.
The Proposed approach for development of the
deterioration model
The approach which was adopted in this paper for developing
the deterioration model of the PCI, was based on the combi-
nation of the empirical-mechanistic approach and the regres-
sive empirical approach. The combination of these two
approaches is reflected in the following stages:
(a) Calculating the deterioration curves of the Present Service-
ability Index – PSI (AASHTO 1993) by the empirical –
mechanistic approach. These curves were calculated
based on the models presented by Uzan et al. (2014) and
Uzan (2018), for various pavements and environmental
conditions. These deterioration curves were converted
into PCI deterioration curves due to the fact that NETI-
PMS is based on the usage of the PCI rather than on the
PSI. The conversion was done according to Table 1.
Graphic and regressive expression of the values shown in
Table 1 are expressed in Figure 1 and the following
equation respectively:
⎧ ⎫
⎨ PCI = 100 for PSI ≥ 4.2 ⎬
PCI = 27.510†PSI − 16.691 for 1.5 , PSI , 4.2
⎩ ⎭
PCI = 25 for PSI ≤ 1.5
(2)

Table 1. Qualitative evaluation of the pavements based on PSI and PCI.
Qualitative Assessment PSI* Value Range PCI** Value Range
Excellent 3.7–4.2
Very good 3.2–3.7
Good 2.7–3.2
Medium 2.0–2.7
Bad 1.5–2.0
Failed ≤1.5
* scale between 1.5–4.2.
** scale between 0–100.
According to the AASHTO (1993), the PSI of a newly con-
structed or rehabilitated pavement equals 4.2 and PSI value less
than or equal to 1.5 means pavement failure. At the same time,
the PCI of a new or rehabilitated pavement is 100 and pave-
ment failure occurs at the value of 25 or less. Between these
two domains, the dependency between the PCI and PSI is
expressed in Equation 2.
(a) Adjusting the PCI deterioration curves, that was developed
in stage (a) using regressive equations.
(b) Development of the models for prediction of the regressive
equations’ coefficients that were adjusted in stage (b),
depending on various factors related to the pavement
and the subgrade layer.
(c) Calculation of the PCI deterioration curves pursuant to
stages (a) – (c) for the pavement sections included in
NETI – PMS and applying a comparison between the cal-
culated results and the measured data, collected on the
same sections.
(d) Calibration of the models, if necessary, according to the
matched results obtained in stage (d).
The models presented by Uzan et al. (2014) and Uzan (2018)
are based on the AASHTO Guide 2002 principles (NCHRP 1–
37A 2004). The adjustments for the conditions in Israel was
expressed by the preparation of the specific climate’s data, for
Figure 1. PCI versus Pavement Serviceability Index – PSI.
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 3
various zones. This was performed in order to calculate the
hourly temperature through the depth of the asphalt layer.
85–100 Moreover, the traffic volume was expressed by Equivalent Single
70–85 Axial Load (ESAL) of 130 kN (which is the allowed SAL in Israel)
55–70 compared to an ESAL of 80 kN in the AASHTO Guide 2002
40–55
25–40 (NCHRP 1–37A 2004). Figure 2 presents an example of a calcu-
≤ 25 lation of PSI deterioration curve using the empirical- mechanis-
tic approach (Uzan et al. 2014, Uzan 2018) and the conversion to
the PCI scale. The calculation was performed for a pavement
structural number (SN) of 5.0, subgrade modulus (Es) of
112 MPa and asphalt layer thickness (TA) of 180 mm. The pave-
ment serves 20 million ESAL of 130 kN for a design period of 20
years (1 million applications per year).
Deterioration model for PCI
The deterioration model which was adopted for the PCI is
expressed in the following equation (Lytton 1987):
 b
Wt
PCI(t) = PCI0 − (PCI0 − PCIf ) × (3)
r
where: PCI(t) – PCI at time – t (years, months, etc.). PCI0 –
initial PCI after construction or rehabilitation. PCIf – PCI at
failure. Wt – cumulative number of 130 kN ESAL applied
until time t. β, ρ – regression coefficients dependent on par-
ameters that characterise the pavement and environmental
variables. According to the settings noted in Equation 3 as
PCI0 = 100 and PCIf = 25, Equation 3 is expressed:
 b
Wt
PCI(t) = 100 − 75 × (4)
r
The coefficients β and ρ may be calculated by the optimisation
of the PCI deterioration curves (Equation 4) dependent on the
parameters that characterise the pavement and environmental
variables as follows:
r, b = f (Es , SN, TA , R) (5)
4 A. SIDESS ET AL.
Figure 2. Example of a PSI and PCI deterioration curve.
where: ES – is the subgrade modulus; SN – is the structural
number of the pavement; TA – is the asphalt layer thickness
and R – is a coefficient depending on the unique environmental
variables of each zone, such as air temperature, precipitation,
air wind speed, sunshine percentage, relative humidity, etc.
Calibration of the deterioration model coefficients
A few prediction scenarios of PCI versus time of service were cal-
culated to calibrate the deterioration model’s coefficients, which
is expressed in Equations 3–5. The calculations were carried out
according to the models presented by Uzan et al. (2014) and
Uzan (2018) and were supported by the dependency between
the PSI and PCI expressed in Equation 2. The pavement par-
ameters that were taken into account are those presented in
Figure 3. Example of PCI deterioration curve and calibration of the model.
Equation 5. The range of values that were used for calculating
each of the aforementioned variables is as follows:
(a) The elastic modulus of the subgrade – Es is within the
range of 42–142 MPa.
(b) The pavement structural number – SN is within the range
of 2.5–6.0. The SN for each pavement structure was calcu-
lated pursuant to the AASHTO equation (AASHTO 1993).
In this case, a value of 0.37 was adopted for the asphalt
layer coefficient, contrary to 0.44 as recommended by
AASHTO. It should be noted that it is possible by using
various combinations of the pavement layer thicknesses
to reach identical SN values.
(c) The asphalt layer thickness – TA is within the range of 90–
250 mm.
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 5

Table 2. Coefficient values of the deterioration model for various climate zones. pavement structural number – SN of 5.0 and the asphalt
Meteorological Station layer thickness – TA of 100 mm. The pavement serves 20
Parameter (Eqs. 6, 7) Southern Zone Central Zone Northern Zone million ESAL of 130 kN for a design period of 20 years (1
A0 −3.8159×106 −8.46993×106 −6.20687×106 million per year). The pavement is located at the Central
AE 52,969.9 82,949.4 68,070.7 zone climate of the country (suiting the Beit Dagan meteorolo-
AS −560,407.7 −596,793.4 −581,458.0
AT 76,640.7 114,617.8 97,366.7 gical Station). Optimisation of the prediction curve based on
B0 0.0705 0.0537 0.0602 the model presented in Equation no. 4 leads to the following
BE 0.2523 0.2677 0.2623 coefficients:
BS 0.2974 0.3206 0.3121
BT 0.1746 0.1972 0.1883
r = 3.4691 × 107 ; b = 0.61408
The calculation of the coefficients ρ and β for various pavement
structures and subgrade characteristics enables the develop-
(d) Predicting the temperature through the depth of the ment of an optimal prediction model of these coefficients as
asphalt layer is based on the climate conditions in various expressed in the following equations:
zones in Israel. Uzan et al. (2014) and Uzan (2018) pre-
pared for NETI (National Company for Transport Infra- r = A0 + AE × ES + AS × SN + AT × TA (6)
structures of Israel) files that summarises the climate b = B0 × (ES )BE × (SN)BS × (TA )BT (7)
conditions of several meteorological stations in different
regions of the country. Analysis of the data has shown where: Es is the subgrade modulus in MPa SN – is the structural
that the differences in the average annual air temperature number of the pavement TA – is the asphalt thickness in mm.
between the various stations are not very large. In terms A0, AE, AS, AT, B0, BE, BS, BT – the coefficients obtained from
of the average annual rainfall, the differences between the optimisation process for the three climate regions, as pre-
the Northern, Central and the Southern zones are signifi- sented in Table 2.
cantly large. Analysis of the meteorological conditions in
various zones in Israel have led to the conclusion that
the climate conditions in the country may be represented Implementation of the PCI deterioration model
by three meteorological stations, one in the Northern Equations 4 through 7 enable the prediction of the PCI’s
zone of the country (Tavor – Kaduri Station, correspond- deterioration, depending on the number of loading cycles of
ing to the area between latitude lines 33.333 and 32.466), a 130 kN ESAL for various pavements’ structural numbers, sub-
second in the Central zone (Beit Dagan Station corre- grade modulus and asphalt layer thickness, as well as for
sponding to the area between latitude lines 32.466 and environmental conditions of various climatic zones. Adjust-
31.444) and the third in the Southern zone (Beer Sheva ment of the aforesaid model was performed by comparing
Station corresponding to the area between latitude lines the predicted results with the measured results of various
32.466 and 29.490) road sections existing in NETI – PMS database.
The representing measurement unit In NETI_PMS database
Figure 3 presents an example of PCI deterioration curve is a 100-meter long segment of road \ lane (segment). Surveys
(Uzan et al. 2014) for subgrade modulus – Es, of 42 MPa, are conducted annually during the spring season. Distress data

Figure 4. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 784 in Northern Zone.

6 A. SIDESS ET AL.

Figure 5. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 411 in Central Zone.

is collected by means of video survey and analysis and laser
measurements of the pavement rutting. Survey results (e.g.
IRI, PCI, Etc.) are calculated and reported for each segment.
The comparison process of selected sections was based on the
following stages and principles:
(c) Using the model equations, PCI values were calculated for
each segment in the sections. The average of calculated PCI
of all segments in the section was compared to the average
of measured PCI (based on the annual survey) of the same
segments.

(d) The subgrade modulus – Es in each segment is determined

(a) The sections for the comparison (section) were selected by
based on surface deflection basins measured by FWD and
the following criteria:
according to the AASHTO (1993) method. The represen-
(1) PCI Score of all segments in each section in the first
tative value of the Es for the entire section is the value suit-
survey year equalled to 100.
ing the 30th percentile of all the values of the segments
(2) No rehabilitation was performed in the section since
included in the section.
the first survey year.
(e) The pavement structural number – SN in each measuring
(b) The length of each section was determined according to
segment was determined to be the minimal value obtained
the accumulated length of sequential segments that met
by calculation according to the AASHTO (1993) method
the above conditions. The minimum length of the sections
or the YONAPAVE (Hoffman 2003) method. The
used for comparison was 700 metres.

Figure 6. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 25 in Southern Zone.

 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 7

Figure 7. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various road sections – Northern Zone.

representative value of SN for the entire section is the value The validation of the predicted results
suiting the 30th percentile of all the values of the segments
Figures 4–6 present examples of the PCI predicted results
included in the section.
(Equations 4–7) compared with measured results for various
(f) The asphalt layer thickness – TA for each measuring seg-
road section located in different climate zones (Northern, Cen-
ment is determined according to the ground penetrating
tral, and Southern). Figures 7–9 present the results of the
radar (GPR) measurements. The TA representative for
matching between the predicted PCI compared to the
the entire section is the value suiting the 30th percentile
measured results of NETI – PMS for each road sections located
of all the values of the segments included in the section.
within the various climate zones. The comparison related to 32,
(g) The traffic volume for all the road sections has been taken
23 and 28 road sections in the northern, central and southern
into account since the 1st year of PCI measurements
zone of the country respectively. The total length of the ana-
(during that year the PCI was 100) and were based on
lyzed sections was 68.1, 44.5 and 57.5 km. in the northern, cen-
the daily number of vehicles- (annual average of daily
tral and southern zone respectively. These figures show that
traffic – AADT), distribution of traffic to trucks and
there is a good match between the predicted and measured
buses and to the axial loads. The axial loads were converted
results of PCI in the various climate zones. Most of the pre-
to 130 kN applications.
dicted results deviated up to ±5 points from the measured

Figure 8. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various road sections – Central Zone.
8 A. SIDESS ET AL.
Figure 9. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various road sections – South Zone.
values. This deviation is not significant given the nature of the
measurement errors and objectivity of the interpreters, etc.
The adjustment of the deterioration model for
pavements with loading history
The deterioration model of the PCI and its comparison to the
measurements, presented in the previous sections, refers to
pavement sections of which the PCI values during the initiation
of the NETI-PMS were 100 (new or rehabilitated pavements). A
model adjustment was implemented for pavements with load-
ing history which received PCI values of less than 100 in the
initiation of the NETI-PMS survey.
According to the data and the models in the literature, it
has been learned that after years of service life the rate
Figure 10. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 98 in Northern Zone.
(derivative) of PCI deterioration was increased significantly
depending on the traffic load, and in fact, begins an acceler-
ated deterioration stage until a total failure occurs (herein-
after the accelerated deterioration). The pavements’ service
time until the change in the rate of deterioration depends
on the pavement structure and on the subgrade strength.
The more durable and stronger the pavement and its sub-
grade are, the changes in the deterioration rate will occur in
a later time. The results presented in Figures 4–9 prove that
within the survey period (7 years), the phenomenon of accel-
erated deterioration did not yet occur. On the other hand, for
road sections that their PCI values were lower than 100, it is
likely that the PCI measurements will show that there is accel-
erated deterioration due to the unknown traffic history over
many years. In this case, a factor expressing the accelerated
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 9

Figure 11. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 55 in Central Zone.

deterioration phenomenon should be included in the predic- According to Equation 8, the W0 may be extracted as follows:
tion model. 
The principle of adjusting the deterioration model for a 100 − PCI0 1/b
W0 = r × (9)
pavement with a traffic loading history is expressed in the fol- 75
lowing equations:
According to Equations 8 and 9, the deterioration model for
pavements with traffic loading history may be expressed as fol-
 b lows:
W0
PCI0 = 100 − 75 × (8) 
r W0 + Wt b
PCI(t . 0) = 100 − 75 × (10)
r
where: PCI0 – PCI before the first year of measurement. W0 – where: Wt – cumulative number of 130 kN ESAL applied until
Cumulative number of 130 kN ESAL applications that had time t.
led to the decrease of the PCI from 100 up to PCI0. β, ρ – Measured results of the PCI in NETI-PMS for different road
regression coefficients depending on parameters that charac- sections, for which PCI values were lower than 100 at the first
terise the pavement and environmental variables. measuring year, demonstrate that the phenomenon of

Figure 12. Measured vs. predicted PCI – road 222 in Southern Zone.
10 A. SIDESS ET AL.

Figure 13. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various loading history sections – Northern None.

accelerated deterioration (change in the rate of the PCI values)
occur typically 3 years after the first measurement year. Com-
mencing this year, the rate of deterioration of the PCI has
been steadily increased. Expression of this phenomenon in
the deterioration model is presented in the following equations:
  loading history
W0 + Wt b
PCI(t . 0) = F 100 − 75 × (11)
r
the coefficient F affects the PCI deterioration rate only from the
third year of measurement as follows:
coefficient from the measured results of the PCI of different
road sections.
Validation of the results for the sections affected by
The optimised correlation between the measured and the pre-
dicted results according to the model (described in Equations
11 and 12) for various road sections, enables obtaining the
value of the coefficient m – expressed in Equation 12. The cor-
relation process results lead to the following values, for North-


F=1 if t , 3 year ern zone: m = −0.137; for Central zone: m = −0.145; and for
(12) Southern zone: m = −0.130.
F = em(t−2) if t ≥ 3 years
Figures 10–12 present examples of the PCI prediction results
where: t – Time in years. m – The calibrated deterioration (Equations 11 and 12) compared with measured results for various

Figure 14. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various loading history sections – Central Zone.

Figure 15. Measured vs. predicted PCI for various loading history sections – Southern Zone.
road sections located in different climate zones (Northern, Central
and Southern). Figures 13–15 present the results of the matching
between the predicted PCI and the measured PCI results of NETI-
PMS for each of the road sections located within the various cli-
mate zones. The comparison related to 31, 15 and 20 road sections
in the northern, central and southern zone of the country respect-
ively. The total length of the analyzed sections was 38.4, 19.1 and
20.2 km. in the northern, central and southern zone respectively.
The results presented in Figures 10–15 show that there is a very
good match between the predicted and measured results. This
match proves that the deterioration model can be implemented
on road sections with traffic loading history.
Summary and conclusions
This paper presents a methodology for the development of a
deterioration model of the PCI. The methodology is based on
the combination of the empirical-mechanistic and regressive-
empirical approaches. The model coefficients can be calculated
depending on the parameters which characterise the pavement
such as the subgrade modulus, structural number of the pave-
ment, the thickness of the asphalt layer and the climate zones,
Northern, Central and Southern in Israel. This model has also
been implemented for pavements with traffic loading history.
Comparison of the predicted PCI results with the measured
PCI for road sections within the various climate zones show
a very good match, most of the results have deviated within
the measurement and the interpretation error range.
The good match between the prediction and the measured
results enables the adoption of this methodology in Netivei
Israel (NETI) PMS. The model will improve the prediction of
the pavement performance and as a result it will improve main-
tenance budget planning. The utilisation of the model can offer
a comparison of design alternatives. The authorities in- charge
can use varied considerations to strengthen the pavement and
to reduce the maintenance budget in return. The model may
assist the private sector to evaluate the pavements performance
in BOT (Build–Operate–Transfer) & PPP (Public-Private
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF PAVEMENT ENGINEERING 11
Partnership) Projects by enabling the assessment of the pave-
ment performance at the end of warranty period of new & reha-
bilitated pavements.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
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