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Bayesian Identification of Soil Stratigraphy based on Soil Behaviour Type Index

Article  in  Canadian Geotechnical Journal · July 2018


DOI: 10.1139/cgj-2017-0714

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ARTICLE
Bayesian identification of soil stratigraphy based on soil
behaviour type index
Zi-Jun Cao, Shuo Zheng, Dian-Qing Li, and Kok-Kwang Phoon
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19

Abstract: The cone penetration test (CPT) has been widely used to determine the soil stratigraphy (including the number N and
thicknesses HN of soil layers) during geotechnical site investigation because it is rapid, repeatable, and economical. For this
purpose, several deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been developed in the literature, but these approaches
generally only give the “best” estimates (e.g., the most probable values) of N and HN based on CPT data according to prescribed
soil stratification criteria, providing no information on the identification uncertainty (degrees-of-belief) in these “best” esti-
mates. This paper develops a Bayesian framework for probabilistic soil stratification based on the profile of soil behaviour type
index Ic calculated from CPT data. The proposed Bayesian framework not only provides the most probable values of N and HN, but
also quantifies their associated identification uncertainty based on the Ic profile and prior knowledge. Equations are derived for
the proposed approach, and they are illustrated and validated using real and simulated Ic profiles. Results show that the
proposed approach properly identifies the most probable soil stratigraphy based on the Ic profile and prior knowledge, and
rationally quantifies the uncertainty in identified soil stratigraphy with consideration of inherent spatial variability of Ic.

Key words: cone penetration test, soil stratification, Bayesian approach, soil behaviour type index, subset simulation.

Résumé : L’essai de pénétration au cône (CPT) a été largement utilisé pour déterminer la stratification du sol (y compris le
nombre N et l’épaisseur HN des couches de sol) pendant l’étude géotechnique du site, car il est rapide, répétable et économique.
For personal use only.

À cet effet, plusieurs approches déterministes et probabilistes ont été développées dans la littérature, mais ces approches ne
donnent généralement que les « meilleures » estimations (par exemple les valeurs les plus probables) de N et HN basées sur les
données CPT selon les critères de stratification du sol prescrit, ne fournissant aucune information sur l’incertitude
d’identification (degrés de croyance) dans ces « meilleures » estimations. Cet article développe un cadre bayésien pour la
stratification probabiliste des sols basé sur le profil de l’indice de type de comportement du sol Ic calculé à partir des données du
CPT. Le cadre bayésien proposé fournit non seulement les valeurs les plus probables de N et HN, mais quantifie également
l’incertitude d’identification associée en fonction du profil Ic et des connaissances antérieures. Les équations sont dérivées pour
l’approche proposée, et elles sont illustrées et validées en utilisant des profils Ic réels et simulés. Les résultats montrent que
l’approche proposée identifie correctement la stratification du sol la plus probable sur la base du profil Ic et des connaissances
antérieures, et quantifie rationnellement l’incertitude dans la stratification du sol identifiée en tenant compte de la variabilité
spatiale intrinsèque de Ic. [Traduit par la Rédaction]
Mots-clés : essais de pénétration au cône, stratification du sol, approche bayésienne, indice de type de comportement du sol,
simulation de sous-ensemble.

Introduction type with depth; and (ii) identify the number N and thicknesses (or
Cone penetration tests (CPTs) provide a versatile method for boundaries) HN = [H1, H2, …, HN] of soil layers based on the soil type
geotechnical site investigation, during which a cylindrical steel profile generated in the first step (i.e., “soil stratification”).
probe is pushed into the ground to measure mechanical responses Because no soil samples are recovered from CPTs for visual
of soils during penetration, such as cone tip resistance, qc; sleeve inspection and laboratory testing, CPT-based soil classification is
friction, fs; and pore-water pressure, u (e.g., Lunne et al. 1997; frequently accomplished through some soil classification system
Mayne et al. 2002). In the past few decades, CPT has been gaining established from past observations and engineering experience,
increasing use worldwide because it is rapid, repeatable, and eco- such as Robertson soil behaviour type (SBT) charts (e.g., Robertson
nomical, and provides nearly continuous measurements over the and Campanella 1983a, 1983b; Robertson 1990, 2009, 2016) and
depth (e.g., Robertson 2009, 2016). One of the primary uses of CPT Unified Soil Classification System (USCS; ASTM 2011) (e.g., Zhang
is to identify the soil stratigraphy based on its measurements, and Tumay 1999; Kurup and Griffin 2006). This can be performed
such as qc and fs. In general, this consists of two major steps: either in a deterministic way (e.g., Douglas and Olsen 1981;
(i) determine the soil type at each testing depth (i.e., “soil classifi- Robertson and Campanella 1983a, 1983b; Robertson 1990, 2009,
cation”) based on CPT measurements, yielding a profile of the soil 2016; Jefferies and Davies 1993; Olsen and Mitchell 1995; Eslami

Received 11 December 2017. Accepted 5 July 2018.


Z.-J. Cao, S. Zheng, and D.-Q. Li. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Institute of Engineering Risk and
Disaster Prevention, Wuhan University 8 Donghu South Road, Wuhan 430072, P.R. China.
K.-K. Phoon.* Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Blk E1A, #07-03, 1 Engineering Drive 2,
Singapore 117576.
Corresponding author: Zi-Jun Cao (email: zijuncao@whu.edu.cn).
*K.-K. Phoon currently serves as an Associate Editor; peer review and editorial decisions regarding this manuscript were handled by I. Moore.
Copyright remains with the author(s) or their institution(s). Permission for reuse (free in most cases) can be obtained from RightsLink.

Can. Geotech. J. 56: 570–586 (2019) dx.doi.org/10.1139/cgj-2017-0714 Published at www.nrcresearchpress.com/cgj on 10 July 2018.
Cao et al. 571

and Fellenius 1997; Robertson and Wride 1998; Ganju et al. 2017) Table 1. Soil classification based on soil behaviour type index, Ic (mod-
or under a probabilistic framework (e.g., Zhang and Tumay 1999; ified from Robertson and Wride 1998).
Tumay et al. 2008; Jung et al. 2008; Cetin and Ozan 2009; Wang Zone Soil behaviour type Ic
et al. 2013; Depina et al. 2015). Among various CPT-based soil clas-
sification systems, the SBT index Ic is widely used, which is essen- 2 Organic soils: peats >3.6
tially the radius of concentric circles approximating boundaries 3 Clays: silty clay to clay 2.95–3.6
of SBTs in soil classification charts and locating CPT data points on 4 Silt mixtures: clayey silt to silty clay 2.60–2.95
5 Sand mixtures: silty sand to sandy silt 2.05–2.6
the chart to determine their corresponding SBTs (Jefferies and
6 Sands: clean sand to silty sand 1.31–2.05
Davies 1993; Robertson and Wride 1998; Robertson 2009). Ic is
7 Gravelly sand to dense sand <1.31
defined as a function of CPT measurements (e.g., qc, fs, and u), and
it provides a concrete and effective concept for classifying soils
according to their mechanical behaviours and allows automated
DiazDelaO et al. 2017) is applied in the proposed approach to
identification of the SBT for each CPT data point (Ku et al. 2010;
evaluate Bayesian equations based on a recently proposed concept
Ching et al. 2015b; Li et al. 2016). However, due to spatial variability
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19

called Bayesian updating with structural reliability method (BUS)


of soils, CPT measurements at different depths vary spatially, so
(Straub and Papaioannou 2015). The paper starts with random
are Ic values calculated from CPT data, even for soils with the same
field modeling of the Ic profile, followed by development of the
SBT (Uzielli et al. 2005). The spatial variability of Ic poses a pro-
Bayesian framework and its key components. Then, the computa-
found challenge in identifying soil stratigraphy (i.e., determining
tional difficulty in solving Bayesian equations is addressed using
N and HN) from a single profile of Ic with certainty. Engineering
BUS with SuS, and the implementation procedure of the proposed
judgment is, hence, often exercised, in a subjective and unquan-
approach is described. Finally, the proposed approach is illus-
tifiable manner, to stratify soil layers based on the Ic profile,
trated and validated using real-life and simulated Ic profiles.
which might give inconsistent soil stratigraphy by different engi-
neers due to their different experience, expertise, and judgments. Random field modeling of soil behaviour type index
More importantly, the uncertainty (or degrees-of-belief) in soil
stratigraphy inferred from the Ic profile in such a subjective and Ic profile
unquantifiable way is unknown. Consider, for example, a sounding of CPT results measured at
Several approaches have been developed for soil stratification an interval of ⌬D, based on which the Ic value at each measuring
using CPT data in an objective and quantitative way, such as depth is calculated in accordance with its definitions proposed in
T ratio method (e.g., Wickremesinghe and Campanella 1991), clus- the literature (e.g., Jefferies and Davies 1993; Robertson and Wride
For personal use only.

tering method (e.g., Hegazy and Mayne 2002; Liao and Mayne 1998; Robertson 2009). Without loss of generality, the definition
2007), statistical analysis using modified Bartlett statistics (e.g., of Ic developed by Robertson and Wride (1998) and Robertson
Phoon et al. 2003, 2004), wavelet transform modulus maxima (2009) is adopted in this paper for development of the proposed
(WTMM) method (Ching et al. 2015b), and Bayesian methods (e.g., approach, which is written as
Cao and Wang 2013; Wang et al. 2013, 2017). These approaches are
able to provide the “best” estimates of N and HN in terms of some
prescribed criterion for soil stratification, but they provide little
(1) Ic ⫽ 兹(3.47 ⫺ log10Q tn)2 ⫹ (log10Fr ⫹ 1.22)2
information on the uncertainty in estimated N and HN. Such an
uncertainty might have significant impacts on geotechnical anal- where Q tn is the normalized tip resistance (= [(qt – ␴v0)/Pa](Pa/␴v0)s);
yses and designs (e.g., Wang et al. 2010a; Phoon et al. 2013; Ching qt is the cone tip resistance corrected for unequal end-area effects;
et al. 2013, 2015a) and, hence, needs to be properly quantified. ␴v0, Pa, and ␴v0 are the vertical total stress, atmospheric pressure
This paper develops a Bayesian framework for probabilistic soil (i.e., 100 kPa), and vertical effective stress, respectively; s is the
stratification based on the profile of Ic. Under the proposed Bayes- stress exponent accounting for SBT and ␴v0 (= 0.381(Ic) + 0.05(␴v0/Pa) −
ian framework, the inherent spatial variability of Ic along the 0.15) (Robertson 2009); Fr is the normalized friction ratio (= [fs/(qt −
depth is taken into account through random field modeling, and ␴v0)]100%). Using eq. (1), the Ic value at each testing depth is calculated
the uncertainty in N and HN estimated from the Ic profile is explic- from its corresponding CPT measurements (e.g., qt and fs), yielding a
itly quantified using their posterior distributions, reflecting the profile of Ic over the depth.
degrees-of-belief in their estimates. Bayesian framework is attract- Based on the Ic value calculated from eq. (1), soils are classified
ing increasing interest in geotechnical engineering. For example, into six SBTs (see Table 1), which approximately range from zone
it has been successfully applied to the selection of empirical mod- 2 to zone 7 in Robertson SBT chart shown in Fig. 1. The bold solid
els between water retention curve parameters and particle-size lines shown in Fig. 1 indicate the boundaries between different
distribution (Chiu et al. 2012), soil stratification model class selec- SBTs based on Ic. Note that the Ic value from eq. (1) increases as Q tn
tion (e.g., Cao and Wang 2013; Wang et al. 2013; Houlsby and decreases and Fr increases. Hence, the minimum, Ic,min, and max-
Houlsby 2013), and identification of random field models of soil imum, Ic,max, of Ic occur at the upper-left (Fr = 0.1, Q tn = 1000) and
properties (e.g., Wang et al. 2010b; Ching et al. 2016; Huang et al. bottom-right (Fr = 10, Q tn = 1) corners of Robertson SBT chart
2018). Yang et al. (2018, 2019) innovatively integrated Bayesian shown in Fig. 1, respectively, and their values are Ic,min = 0.52 and
updating with metamodel and random field to quantify inherent Ic,max = 4.12. The Ic values typically vary over the depth within the
spatial variability of soil properties. Compared with previous range from Ic,min to Ic,max. For example, Figs. 2a and 2b show,
studies, Yang et al. (2018, 2019) successfully tackled the profound respectively, a set of qt and fs data over the depth obtained from
challenge — the so-called “curse of dimensionality” — in spatial National Geotechnical Experimentation Site (NGES) at Texas A&M
variability characterization by taking into account indirect mea- University (Zhang and Tumay 1999; Briaud 2000; Wang et al. 2013).
surements, i.e., field performance measurements, under a rigor- Based on these qt and fs data, a profile of Ic at the NGES is calcu-
ous Bayesian framework. lated using eq. (1), as shown in Fig. 2c, where the boundaries
Solving posterior distributions is an essential step in Bayesian between different SBTs based on the Ic are shown by vertical
analysis, which is a nontrivial task when the posterior distribu- dashed lines. The Ic value shown in Fig. 2c varies from 1.8 to 3.2,
tion involves high dimensional integrals (e.g., Beck and Au 2002; and its corresponding SBT ranges from SBT 3 (clays: silty clay to
Cao and Wang 2013; Wang et al. 2013; Ching et al. 2015b). To clay) to SBT 6 (sands: clean sand to silty sand). The spatial variabil-
address this issue, an advanced Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) ity of Ic with depth can be observed even for soils with the same
technique called subset simulation (SuS) (Au and Beck 2001, 2003; SBT, such as those belonging to SBT 5 below the depth of 7.0 m.

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572 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

Fig. 1. Soil behaviour type chart and soil behaviour type index Ic contours (modified from Robertson 2009). [Colour online.]

Ic,min= 0.52
Zone
Zone Soil Behaviour Type
Normalized cone tip resistance, Qtn 1 Sensitive, fine-grained
2 Organic soils: peats
3 Clays: silty clay to clay
Silt mixtures: clayey silt to
4
silty clay
Sand mixtures: silty sand to
5
sandy silt
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19

Sands: clean sand to silty


6
sand
7 Gravelly sand to dense sand
8 Very ff sand to clayey sand
r stiff
9 Very
r stiff,
ff, fine-grained
stiff fine-grained

Ic,max=4.12

Normalized friction ratio, Fr

Fig. 2. Cone penetration test (CPT) data and soil behaviour type index (Ic) values at the clay site of NGES at Texas A&M University (modified
For personal use only.

from Zhang and Tumay 1999, © ASCE). [Colour online.]

0 0 0

3 3 3

6 6 6
Depth (m)

Depth (m)
Depth (m)

9 9 9
SBT 2
SBT 3
SBT 4
SBT 5
SBT 6
SBT 7

12 12 12

15 15 15
0 10 20 0 0.2 0.4 1 2 3 4
qt (Mpa) fs (Mpa) Ic

(a) qt (b) fs (c) Ic

Such spatial variability unavoidably affects the soil stratification fields Icn, n = 1, 2, …, N. The random field Icn for the nth soil layer
results (e.g., N and HN) inferred from the Ic profile and the degrees- consists of a number, kn, of spatially correlated lognormal random
of-belief (or uncertainty) in these estimates. variables with a mean ␮n and standard deviation ␴n, which repre-
To explicitly incorporate the spatial variability of Ic into CPT- sent the Ic values at kn testing depths in the nth soil layer. In the
based soil stratification, random field theory (Vanmarcke 2010) is context of random field theory, the spatial correlation between
used in this study to model the Ic profile. Then, as shown in Fig. 3, variations of Ic (or, equivalently, the logarithm lnIc of Ic that fol-
a profile of Ic over the depth of H is considered to be obtained from lows a Gaussian distribution in this study) at different depths is
N statistically homogenous soil layers and is represented by N specified by a correlation function. Here, the correlation function
one-dimensional and mutually independent lognormal random of lnIc is taken as a single exponential correlation function that

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Cao et al. 573

Fig. 3. Random field modelling of profile of soil behaviour type index.


Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19
For personal use only.

is frequently used in geotechnical analysis (e.g., Fenton 1999a, lently, lnIc) data are quantified by their joint probability density
1999b; Uzielli et al. 2005; Li et al. 2014; Phoon et al. 2003, 2004; Qi function (PDF) p(HN, N|␰_), where ␰_ (= [␰1, ␰2, …, ␰N]) is a set of lnIc data
and Li 2018; Xiao et al. 2018). The correlation coefficient, ␳n, be- obtained from the N soil layers and _␰n (= [lnIc(Z1), lnIc(Z2), …,
tween the logarithms (i.e., lnIc(Zi) and lnIc(Zj)) of Ic at respective lnIc(Zkn)] (n = 1, 2, …, N)) represent a number kn of lnIc values
depths Zi and Zj is then given by obtained at kn depths in the nth soil layer. Then, the most probable
soil stratigraphy, which is specified by the most probable number
(2) ␳n[lnIc(Zi), lnIc(Zj)] ⫽ exp(⫺2|di,j |/ ␭n) N* of soil layers and their most probable thicknesses H ∗ ∗
គ N∗ = [H1 ,
∗ ∗
H2 , …, HN∗] given a Ic profile, can be probabilistically reasoned
where di,j (= |Zi – Zj| (i, j = 1, 2, …, kn)) is a distance between depths according to p(HN, N|␰_). More importantly, the p(HN, N|␰_) provides
Zi and Zj within the nth layer; ␭n is the scale of fluctuation of lnIc in information on the uncertainty in N and HN given _␰. Such infor-
the nth soil layer and is a separation distance within which the mation, quantitatively and explicitly, reflects how reliable the soil
correlation among lnIc values at different depths is relatively stratigraphy identified from _␰ is.
strong. Note that the number of dimensions of p(HN, N|_␰) is equal to N+1,
To completely define the N random fields of Ic shown in Fig. 3, and it increases as N increases. Direct solving of such a PDF with
information on N, HN, and ␪n = [␮n, ␴n, ␭n] (n = 1, 2, …, N) are needed, varying dimensions is a nontrivial task. Alternatively, based on
where ␪n are spatial variability parameters. Herein, it shall be the conditional probability (Ang and Tang 2007), p(HN, N|␰_) can be
pointed out that, for the purpose of soil stratification that focuses re-written as
on identifying the number and boundaries of soil layers, only N
and HN are of intrinsic interest in this study. Nevertheless, ␪n are (3) គ N, N| _␰) ⫽ p(H
p(H គ N | _␰, N)P(N| ␰_)
needed to explicitly model inherent spatial variability of Ic for soil
stratification. They are treated as nuisance parameters in the
study, which are quantities necessarily included in the formula- where p(HN|_␰, N) is the conditional PDF of HN based on ␰_ and a given
tion and analysis, but of no intrinsic interest (Sivia and Skilling soil stratification model with N soil layers, and it has N dimensions
2006; Wang et al. 2013; Cao and Wang 2014), as discussed in the that is considered as a fixed condition; P(N|␰_) is conditional prob-
next section. ability of N given _␰, and it has only one dimension. As indicated by
eq. (3), identification of soil stratigraphy can be divided into two
Bayesian framework for identification of soil steps: (i) compare the soil stratification models with different
stratigraphy numbers (e.g., N) of soil layers based on P(N|_␰) and determine N*
For a given profile of Ic, there are many possible combinations among a number of possible N values; and (ii) evaluate p(HN|_␰, N)
of N and HN, each of which corresponds to a soil stratification for quantifying the uncertainty in HN based on _␰ for a given soil
model. The occurrence probability of each soil stratification stratification model with N (e.g., N = N*) soil layers and determine
∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
model (i.e., a combination of N and HN) given the Ic (or, equiva- their most probable thicknesses H គN = [H1 , H2 , …, HN] and boundar-

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574 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

ies. These two steps are introduced in the following two subsec- Fig. 4. Illustration of linear constraint of thicknesses of two layers
tions, respectively. within depth of 15.0 m.

Comparing soil stratification models with different 15


numbers of soil layers
Let Nmax denote the maximum number of soil layers contained
in a profile of Ic. Then, N is defined as a discrete random variable 12
ranging from 1 to Nmax. Using Bayes’ theorem, P(N|␰_) is written as
(Yan et al. 2009; Yuen 2010a, 2010b; Cao and Wang 2013; Wang
et al. 2013, 2014) 9

H2 (m)
(4) P(N|_␰) ⫽ p(_␰ |N)P(N)/p(␰_)
6
where p(_␰|N) is the conditional PDF of _␰ given the soil stratification
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model with N layers, and it is frequently referred to as the “evi-


dence” for the soil stratification model with N layers provided by 3
␰_; P(N) is the prior probability of N reflecting the prior knowledge
on N in the absence of CPT data; p(␰_) is a normalizing constant and

is independent of N ⫽ 冉 Nmax
兺 p共_␰ⱍN兲P共N兲
N⫽1
冊 . In the case of no prevailing
0
0 3 6 9 12 15
prior knowledge on N, the Nmax possible values (i.e., 1, 2, …, Nmax)
of N are considered having the same prior probability, i.e., P(N) = H1 (m)
1/Nmax. Then, based on eq. (4), P(N|_␰) is proportional to the evidence
p(␰_|N), which means that maximizing p(_␰|N) with respect to N leads Prior distribution of soil layer thicknesses
to the maximum value of P(N|_␰) and, hence, N*. Calculation of In the case of no prevailing prior knowledge on soil layer thick-
p(_␰|N) is pivotal to evaluating eq. (4) for quantifying uncertainty in nesses HN = [H1, H2, …, HN], they can be considered uniformly
N based on _␰ and determining N*. distributed, each of which ranges from 0 to CPT sounding depth H,
Using the theorem of total probability (Ang and Tang 2007), i.e., 0 < Hn < H for n = 1, 2, …, N, where Hn is thickness of nth layer.
p(_␰|N) is calculated as
For personal use only.

Nevertheless, it is not straightforward to formulate a joint uni-


form prior distribution of HN because they have to satisfy a linear
(5) p(_␰ |N) ⫽ 冕 p(␰_|H
គ N, N)p(H
គ N |N) dH
គN
n⫽1
N
constraint, i.e., 兺 Hn ⫽ H, which enforces the correlation among
thicknesses of different soil layers. Alternatively, this study for-
mulates p(HN|N) from a geometric perspective. Consider, for exam-
where p(␰_|HN, N) is the conditional joint PDF of _␰ given a soil ple, there are two soil layers (i.e., setting N = 2) within a testing
stratification model consisting of N layers with thicknesses of HN; depth of 15 m. Their possible thicknesses are constrained by the
and p(HN|N) is the prior distribution of HN given the soil stratifica- linear equation H1 + H2 = 15, as shown in Fig. 4. In other words, all
tion model with N layers, and it quantifies the prior knowledge on the combinations of H1 and H2 lie on the off-diagonal solid line
HN in the absence of _␰. Under a Bayesian framework, p(_␰|HN, N) is shown in Fig. 4. If there is no preference on any combinations of
referred to as the “likelihood function” that is a function of HN H1 and H2 based on prior knowledge, the combinations of H1 and
given _␰ and N, and it quantitatively reflects the model fit with ␰_. H2 are uniformly distributed on the off-diagonal solid line. Such
Before moving to formulations of p(HN|N) and p(_␰|HN, N) required reasoning can be generalized to N-dimensional space for HN. Sim-
ilarly, all the possible combinations of HN are uniformly distrib-
再兺
for evaluating the evidence in eq. (5), the next subsection dis- N
cusses how to quantify uncertainty in HN of the soil stratification uted within a N – 1 dimensional simplex ⍀ = Hn ⫽ H,


model with N layers based on _␰ and prior knowledge under a n⫽1

Bayesian framework. 0 ⬍ Hn ⬍ H with the length of all edges equal to 兹2H, which is a
N
Quantifying uncertainty in soil stratigraphy for a given subspace of the hyperplane defined by 兺 Hn ⫽ H and is con-
n⫽1
number of soil layers strained by {0 < Hn < H, n = 1, 2, …, N}. Such a uniform distribution
In this subsection, _␰ is considered to be acquired from N soil of HN can be derived from a flat Dirichlet distribution that repre-
layers, where N is a fixed value and is used as a condition for sents a uniform prior distribution of normalized soil layer thick-
inferring HN from _␰ according to p(HN|_␰, N). Within a Bayesian nesses Hn/H, n = 1, 2, …, N, belonging to a N–1 dimensional
framework, p(HN|_␰, N) is referred to as the posterior distribution of
HN based on _␰, and it is expressed as n⫽1
再 N
standard simplex ⍀S = 兺 Hn/H ⫽ 1, 0 ⬍ Hn/H ⬍ 1 formed from 冎
unit vectors and with the edge length of 兹2. Within ⍀S, the joint
(6) គ N | _␰, N) ⫽ p(␰_|H
p(H គ N |N)/p(␰_|N)
គ N, N)p(H uniform PDF of Hn/H, n = 1, 2, …, N, is calculated from the Gamma
function evaluated at N, i.e., ⌫(N), by the definition of the flat
Dirichlet distribution (Bishop 2006); otherwise, their joint PDF is
The p(HN|_␰, N) in eq. (6) quantifies the uncertainty in layer thick- equal to zero. From a geometric perspective, ⍀ can be obtained by
nesses HN (or, equivalently, layer boundaries) of the soil stratifica- extending each edge of ⍀S by H times from 兹2 to 兹2H, by which
tion model with N layers based on CPT data (i.e., _␰) and prior the probability space is enlarged by HN−1 times because there are
knowledge. It involves the likelihood function p(␰_|HN, N), prior N–1 free uncertain parameters among the N soil layer thicknesses
distribution p(HN|N), and a normalizing constant p(␰_|N) indepen- N
dent of HN for a given N value, which is the evidence for the soil under the linear constraint 兺 Hn ⫽ H. To ensure the normaliza-
n⫽1
stratification model with N layers (see eq. (5)). Formulations of tion of the uniform prior distribution within ⍀, the joint PDF of
p(HN|N) and p(_␰|HN, N) are provided in the next two subsections, HN is obtained by reducing the joint PDF of normalized soil layer
respectively. thicknesses by HN−1 times, and is expressed as

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Cao et al. 575

(7) គ N |N)
p(H Using the theorem of total probability, p(␰_n|HN, N) is written as

再 关兺 兴

N
គN 僆
⌫(N)/HN⫺1 for H Hn ⫽ H, 0 ⬍ Hn ⬍ H
⫽ n⫽1
0 otherwise (9) p(_␰n |H
គ N, N) ⫽ p(_␰n | _␪n, H ␪n |H
គ N, N)p(_ ␪n
គ N, N) d_

where HN−1 serves as a normalizing constant. As indicated by where p(␰_n|␪n, HN, N) is a joint Gaussian PDF of _␰n for a given set of
eq. (7), p(HN|N) is a constant for a given N value and testing depth H.
random field parameters ␪n = [␮n, ␴n, ␭n] in the nth soil layer, and
Likelihood function it needs the information on HN and N to divide _␰ into ␰_n, n = 1, 2, …, N;
The likelihood function p(_␰|HN, N) quantifies information on HN and p(␪n|HN, N) is the prior distribution of ␪n in the nth soil layer for
of the soil stratification model with N soil layers provided by _␰. As a given soil stratification model comprising N soil layers with
discussed in section titled “Random field modeling of soil behav- layer thicknesses equal to HN.
iour type index profile”, this study models the Ic profile by N For a given set of ␪n, the joint Gaussian PDF p(␰_n|␪n, HN, N) of _␰n
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19

mutually independent lognormal random fields Icn(Z), n = 1, 2, …, N is given by


(see Fig. 3). Correspondingly, the profile of lnIc (i.e., ␰_ = [␰_1, _␰2, …, _␰N])
គ N, N) ⫽ 共2␲␴ln,n兲 n |det Rn |
⫺k /2 ⫺1/2
obtained from the N soil layers are considered as a realization of the (10) p(_␰n | _
␪n, H 2

N random fields with model parameters ␪n = [␮n, ␴n, ␭n], n = 1, 2, …, N.


Then, p(␰_|HN, N) is expressed as (Cao and Wang 2013; Houlsby and
Houlsby 2013)
× exp ⫺ 再 1
2␴ln,n
2 冎
[_␰n ⫺ ␮ln,nlគ n]TRn⫺1[_␰n ⫺ ␮ln,nlគ n]

N
/2兲 and ␴ln,n 共 ⫽ 兹ln关1 ⫹ 共␴n/␮n兲2兴兲 are the
兿 p(␰_ |Hគ , N) where ␮ln,n 共 ⫽ ln␮n ⫺ ␴ln,n
2
(8) p(_␰ |H
គ N, N) ⫽ n N
n⫽1 mean and standard deviation of lnIc in the nth soil layer; Rn is the
correlation matrix of _␰n, and its (i, j)th entry represents the corre-
lation coefficient ␳n (lnIc(Zi), lnIc(Zj)) of lnIc values at respective
where p(␰_n|HN, N), n = 1, 2, …, N, is the likelihood function for the
nth soil layer. As indicated by eq. (8), the likelihood function for depths Zi and Zj, which is given by eq. (2); and ln is a column vector
the soil stratification model with N soil layers is a function of HN with kn components that are all equal to one.
for a given set of _␰ because the division of _␰ into _␰1, _␰2, …, ␰_N relies Although only HN and N are of intrinsic interest in this study,
the information on ␪n, n = 1, 2, …, N, is needed to formulate the
For personal use only.

on HN. Nevertheless, it shall be pointed out that CPT data are


measured at an interval of ⌬D. If the change of HN is very small in likelihood function (see eqs. (8)–(10)), and they are treated as nui-
comparison with ⌬D, the division of _␰ into ␰_1, _␰2, …, _␰N may not be sance parameters and are dealt with through marginalization in
affected by the change of HN, leading to a constant likelihood eq. (9). Without prevailing information on ␪n available at a site,
function with HN. As the change of HN increases and becomes the marginalization can be performed over typical ranges of ␪n
sufficiently large to affect the division of _␰, there will be a sudden (Sivia and Skilling 2006). Then, p(␪n|HN, N) is simply taken as a joint
jump in the value of likelihood function, indicating that the like- uniform prior distribution of ␪n defined by their typical ranges,
lihood function is a discontinuous function of HN. which is written as

(11) p(_␪n |H
គ N, N) ⫽ 再 0
1
(␮n,max ⫺ ␮n,min)(␴n,max ⫺ ␴n,min)(␭n,max ⫺ ␭n,min)
for ␮n 僆 [␮n,min, ␮n,max], ␴n 僆 [␴n,min, ␴n,max], ␭n 僆 [␭n,min, ␭n,max]

otherwise

where ␮n,min, ␴n,min, and ␭n,min are the respective lower bounds of Yuen 2010b; Ching and Wang 2016) and BUS with SuS (Straub and
␮n, ␴n, and ␭n; and ␮n,max, ␴n,max, and ␭n,max are their respective Papaioannou 2015; DiazDelaO et al. 2017), have been developed for
upper bounds. handling computational difficulties involved in Bayesian analysis.
Substituting eqs. (7)–(11) into eqs. (5) and (6) gives the p(␰_|N) for Both TMCMC and BUS with SuS are feasible in solving high-
comparing soil stratification models with different numbers N of dimensional Bayesian updating problems and, more importantly,
soil layers and the p(HN|_␰, N) for quantifying uncertainty in HN of a they are able to estimate the evidence for Bayesian model class
given soil stratification model with a fixed number (i.e., N) of soil selection. However, to the best of our knowledge, capacity and
layers based on ␰_ and prior knowledge. Note that the p(␰_|N) is also performance of TMCMC for Bayesian updating problems involv-
involved in p(HN|_␰, N) (see eq. (6)). Solving the p(␰_|N) and p(HN|_␰, N) is ing a constrained probability space remain unexplored in the
a key step to determine the soil stratigraphy and its associated literature. In contrast, Li and Au (2010) and Li and Cao (2016)
identification uncertainty. This is a nontrivial task in this study demonstrated that SuS provides a rational tool to explore a con-
because of the discontinuity of the likelihood function with re-
strained probability space. This study implements BUS with SuS
spect to HN, constraint relationship among soil layer thicknesses
to, simultaneously, calculate p(␰_|N) and p(HN|_␰, N) in the next sec-
(
N
i.e.,
n⫽1
)
兺 Hn ⫽ H , and high-dimensional integral involved in the
evidence and the posterior distribution (see eqs. (5) and (6), respec-
tion.

Bayesian updating with subset simulation (SuS)


tively), particularly as N is relatively large (say N > 5). These com-
putational difficulties defeat most of inference techniques for BUS (Straub and Papaioannou 2015; Straub et al. 2016) stems
Bayesian updating, such as conjugate distributions, Laplace as- from the idea that converts Bayesian updating problems into
ymptotic approximate, and Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Re- equivalent reliability analysis problems by constructing an auxil-
cently, some advanced methods, such as transitional Markov iary observation domain F using the likelihood function. By this
chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm (Ching and Chen 2007; means, reliability analysis methods (such as first order reliability

Published by NRC Research Press


576 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

method, direct MCS, importance sampling, line sampling, and rior samples of HN under the BUS framework) from the prior
SuS) can be used in Bayesian analyses to evaluate the posterior distribution and to calculate the P(F). SuS is an advanced MCS
distribution (e.g., eq. (6)) and model evidence (e.g., eq. (5)) for technique that evaluates the occurrence probability of a rare
model updating and comparison, respectively. In the context of event of interest as a product a sequence of intermediate events
BUS, the F in this study is defined as (Straub and Papaioannou with larger conditional probabilities p0 (Au and Beck 2001, 2003; Li
2015; DiazDelaO et al. 2017) and Au 2010; Au and Wang 2014). It provides a robust yet efficient
method to explore the rare event (e.g., F) and to calculate its oc-
(12) F ⫽ [cp(_␰ |H
គ N, N) ⫺ U ⬎ 0] currence probability (e.g., P(F)) by simulating intermediate events
level by level, for which a number, Ncs, of conditional samples are
generated in each level to evaluate their corresponding condi-
where c is a positive scalar constant ensuring cp(␰_|HN, N) ≤ 1; p(␰_|HN,
N) is the likelihood function given by eq. (8); and U is a uniform tional probabilities. In addition, using the alterative BUS algo-
random variable ranging from 0 to 1 and it is independent of HN. rithm with SuS, the value of c is determined in an adaptive
Using eq. (12), p(␰_|HN, N) is re-written as (Straub 2011; Straub and manner as SuS proceeds (DiazDelaO et al. 2017), which allows
evaluating the evidence using eq. (15). In this study, the alternative
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Papaioannou 2015)
BUS algorithm proposed by DiazDelaO et al. (2017) is applied to

冕 1 generating posterior samples of HN to numerically represent


(13) p(_␰ |H
គ N, N) ⫽ c
⫺1
គ N, U) 僆 F] dU
I[(H p(HN|_␰, N) for quantifying uncertainty in HN and to calculating the
0 evidence p(_␰|N) (i.e., c–1P(F)) for comparing soil stratification mod-
els with different numbers of soil layers.
where I关共H គ N, U兲 僆 F兴 is an indicator function. If (HN, U) belongs to F, The alternative BUS algorithm with SuS progressively ap-
គ N, U兲 僆 F兴 is equal to 1; otherwise, it is taken as 0. Substituting
I关共H proaches F and determines posterior samples in F based on the
eq. (13) into eq. (5) gives characteristic trend of the variation of P(F) as a function of –lnc. As
the P(F) changes from a slowly decreasing function of –lnc to a

(14) p(␰_|N) ⫽ c⫺1 冕冕


គN
H 0
1
គ N, U) 僆 F]p(H
I[(H គ N |N) dU dH
គN
straight line with a slope of −1, the minimum value of –lnc of
posterior samples is determined, which corresponds to the largest
admissible value cmax of c, i.e., the reciprocal of the maximum
likelihood function, for BUS. Hence, in theory, the alternative BUS
Because U and HN are independent and the PDF p(U) of U is equal algorithm with SuS proposed by DiazDelaO et al. (2017) is able to
generate posterior samples with the maximum likelihood func-
For personal use only.

to unity, the integral over the space of U and HN in eq. (14) gives the
occurrence probability (i.e., P(F)) of F, that is tion; these samples are identical to the most probable posterior
values (MPPV) in the case of using a constant prior distribution
(15) p(␰_|N) ⫽ c⫺1P(F) (e.g., eq. (7)). Nevertheless, in implementation, the P(F) is esti-
mated on a sample basis, and its estimate may randomly deviate
around the theoretical characteristic trend, leading to random
Hence, evaluation of p(␰_|N) in Bayesian analysis can be achieved fluctuation in estimated cmax and MPPV. Such a random fluctua-
by calculating P(F) in the equivalent reliability analysis problem, tion can be reduced by increasing the number (i.e., Ncs) of samples
where uncertainty parameters HN follow the prior distribution. generated in each SuS level. With a large number (i.e., Ncs =
Moreover, using eq. (6), the F defined by eq. (12) is re-written as 100 000) of samples, it is assumed that SuS provides reasonably

再 冎
accurate estimates of P(F) and cmax, and generates random sam-
គ N | _␰, N)
p(H
ples clustering around the MPPV in this study. For the sake of
(16) F⫽ U⬍
[cp(␰_|N)]⫺1p(H
គ N |N) conciseness, detailed algorithm and implementing procedures of
the alterative BUS formulation with SuS are not provided herein.
Interested readers are referred to DiazDelaO et al. (2017) for de-
where [cp(_␰|N)]−1 is a constant independent of HN. The terms p(HN|_␰, N)
tails.
and p(HN|N) in eq. (16) can be viewed as target and sampling distri-
butions in the context of the rejection principle (Au and Wang Implementation procedures
2014; Straub and Papaioannou 2015). Using the rejection principle,
it is reasoned that the samples of HN generated from p(HN|N) and Figure 5 shows the implementation procedure of the proposed
conditional on F follow p(HN|_␰, N). In other words, p(HN|_␰, N) can be approach schematically, which involves nine steps. Calculation
numerically represented by generating samples conditional on F details of each step and their associated equations are summa-
from the prior distribution p(HN|N) under the BUS framework. rized as follows:
Nevertheless, as indicated in eqs. (15) and (16), using the above 1. Obtain a set of CPT data and calculate the Ic value at each
formulation of BUS to evaluate the p(␰_|N) and to generate posterior testing depth using eq. (1).
samples of HN from the prior distribution needs to specify c, the 2. Choose a maximum number Nmax of soil layers for the set of
admissible values of which satisfy cp(␰_|HN, N) ≤ 1. Determination of CPT data, leading to Nmax possible values of N varying from 1 to
c for BUS might not be a trivial task because of the complexity
Nmax.
(e.g., high-dimensionality) in the likelihood function (e.g., Betz
3. Determine a set of prior knowledge on random field parame-
et al. 2014; DiazDelaO et al. 2017). To address this issue, DiazDelaO
ters used to model the spatial variability of Ic, such as their
et al. (2017) proposed an alternative BUS algorithm, by which BUS
typical ranges (i.e., [␮n,min, ␮n,max], [␴n,min, ␴n,max], and [␭n,min,
is implemented with SuS without the need of predetermining c by
␭n,max]) needed in eq. (11).
redefining F in eq. (12) as
4. Set N = 1, for which the soil layer thickness is a deterministic

再 冋p(_␰|HគU , N)册 ⬎ ⫺lnc冎


value of H. Hence, both the prior and posterior distributions
(17) F ⫽ ln
N
(i.e., p(HN|N) and p(HN|_␰, N)) for N = 1 are equal to unity. Then,
the evidence p(_␰|N) for N = 1 is calculated using eqs. (5) and
(8)–(11). Note that the three-dimensional integration in eq. (9) is
Then, the term Y = ln[p(_␰|HN, N)/U] is used as the target response evaluated numerically over the space of random field param-
in SuS to generate conditional samples of HN within F (i.e., poste- eters in this study.

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Cao et al. 577

Fig. 5. Flowchart for implementation of proposed method. p0, conditional probabilities; Ncs, number of conditional samples; c, positive scalar
constant; P(F), occurrence probability of auxiliary observation domain using likelihood function.
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19
For personal use only.

5. Construct the likelihood function p(_␰|HN, N) using eqs. (8)–(11) N – 1, this is achieved by generating independent uniform
and the auxiliary observation domain F defined by eq. (17) for random samples of Hn, n = 1, 2, …, N – 1, ranging from 0 to H
N⫺1
BUS for N = 2, 3, …, Nmax.
6. Determine the conditional probability p0 (typically chosen as and using the 兺 Hn as the target response in SuS to drive the
n⫽1
0.1) and the number, Ncs, of samples per subset stage for per- sampling space to ⍀ that is equivalently defined as
forming SuS to generate posterior samples of HN and to calcu-
late the p(␰_|N) (i.e., c−1P(F)) for the soil stratification model with {兺
N⫺1

n⫽1
}
Hn ⬍ H, 0 ⬍ Hn ⬍ H . For each sample of Hn, n = 1, 2, …, N – 1,
N⫺1
N layers, and then calculate P(N|␰_) using eq. (4). Note that the its corresponding HN is calculated as H – 兺 Hn. By this means, a
samples of HN generated from prior distribution given by n⫽1
large number of prior samples of HN is first generated using SuS.
eq. (7) shall be uniformly distributed within the simplex ⍀ =
Starting from the prior samples, SuS proceeds to explore F for
{兺N

n⫽1
}
Hn ⫽ H, 0 ⬍ Hn ⬍ H . Because the linear constraint
N⫺1
N
兺 Hn ⫽ H is
n⫽1
generating posterior samples of HN and to determine P(F) and
c for evaluating p(_␰|N) (i.e., c−1P(F)), during which all the sam-
equivalent to the constraint 兺 Hn ⬍ H for 0 < Hn < H, n = 1, 2, …,
n⫽1
ples remain within ⍀. Moreover, for each sample of HN gener-

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578 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

Fig. 6. Boring log at clay site of NGES at Texas A&M University Table 2. Typical ranges of random field parame-
(modified from Zhang and Tumay 1999, © ASCE). ters adopted in this study.
␮n ␴n ␭n
0
Minimum 0.52 0 0.1
1.07 Sandy Clay Maximum 4.12 1.04 1.2
Range [0.52, 4.12] (0, 1.04] [0.1, 1.2]

3 Clay p(_␰|HN*, N*) of posterior samples because a uniform prior dis-


tribution is adopted in this study and it is assumed the num-
ber of posterior samples are sufficiently large to generate
samples clustering around MPPV.
4.89
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Note that SuS is used under the BUS framework to generate


posterior samples of HN and to calculate p(␰_|N) for each possible
6 6.0 N value in proposed approach. SuS already has several successful
applications in geotechnical engineering (e.g., Au et al. 2010;
Depth (m)

7.10 Silty Clay Wang and Cao 2013; Wang et al. 2010a; Santoso et al. 2011; Ahmed
and Soubra 2014; Li et al. 2016a, 2016b; Xiao et al. 2016; Huang et al.
2017). It has been implemented in EXCEL (e.g., Au et al. 2010; Au
and Wang 2014) and MATLAB (Li and Cao 2016) by developing
toolboxes or user-functions. For the sake of briefness, detailed
9 algorithms and implementation procedures of SuS is not intro-
duced in this paper. Details of the SuS algorithm, its implementa-
Clay with Silt tion procedure, and MATLAB codes for exploring an event (e.g., F)
Seams within a constrained probability space (e.g., ⍀ in this study) are
refer to Li and Au (2010) and Li and Cao (2016).
In addition, to facilitate the practical implementation of the
For personal use only.

12 proposed approach, it can also be programmed as a user-function


or toolbox in computer software, such as MATLAB (Mathworks
Inc. 2017). Then, the users only need to provide prior knowledge
and CPT test data (or Ic profile) as input, and the user-function or

គ N∗)
toolbox will return the estimated soil stratigraphy (i.e., N* and H
and its associated identification uncertainty (i.e., degrees-of-
belief) as output. By this means, the user-function or toolbox is
15 treated as a “black box”, with which geotechnical practitioners
can use the proposed approach with relative ease. The proposed
ated by SuS for exploring F, it needs to calculate the likelihood approach and its implementation procedures are illustrated and
function p(␰_|HN, N) for evaluating the target response Y = validated using real-life and simulated CPT data in the next two
ln[p(␰_|HN, N)/U]. As indicated in eqs. (8) and (9), there are N sections, respectively.
three-dimensional integrations involved in the likelihood
function, which are, again, calculated numerically in this study. Illustrative example
7. Repeat steps 5 and 6 for N = 2, 3, …, Nmax to obtain their For illustration, the proposed approach is applied to identifying
corresponding p(_␰|N) and P(N|␰_). the soil stratigraphy at the clay site of the NGES at Texas A&M
8. Compare the values of P(N|␰_) (or, equivalently, p(␰_|N) in the case University based on a set of CPT data obtained from the site, which
of using uniform prior probability of N) for different N values is shown in Fig. 2. The set of CPT data has been used to illustrate
and select the one with the maximum value of P(N|␰_) as N*. CPT-based soil classification and (or) stratification approaches in
Note that the Nmax values of P(N|␰_) give the probability mass the literature, including fuzzy-based soil classification (FBSC) ap-
function (PMF) of N based on the Ic, which quantify identifica- proach (Zhang and Tumay 1999), Bayesian soil classification and
tion uncertainty in N. stratification (BSCS) approach based on Robertson SBT chart
9. Calculate the statistics (e.g., mean values ␮ គ H, standard devia- (Wang et al. 2013), and the WTMM method for soil stratification

tions ␴H, and the MPPV H គ N∗) of HN based on their posterior (Ching et al. 2015b). Based on the boring log obtained from the

samples generated by SuS for N = N*, among which H គ N∗ reflects ground surface to a depth of around 15.0 m (see Fig. 6), the site
the most probable soil stratigraphy identified from the pro- consists of a sequence of sandy clay, clay, silty clay, and clay with
posed approach based on the Ic profile and ␴H reflects its iden- silt seams (Zhang and Tumay 1999), and the groundwater table is

tification uncertainty. In this study, the H គ N∗ are taken as the at about 6.0 m below the ground surface. However, it shall be
posterior sample of H គN∗ with the maximum value of the pos- emphasized that the actual soil stratigraphy is unknown at a real
terior distribution p(HN*|_␰, N*) for N = N* or, equivalently, the site. Although in situ boring and sampling allow inferring soil
maximum value of the likelihood function p(␰_|HN*, N*) for N = stratigraphy from soil samples, such an inference relies on the
N* because the prior distribution of soil layer thicknesses is a criterion adopted to delineate soil layer boundaries, which is
constant (see eq. (7)). Note that the values of p(_␰|HN*, N*) corre- somehow subjective because engineering experience and judg-
sponding to posterior samples have been calculated for evalu- ments are often exercised in a vague and unquantifiable manner.
ating the target response Y in step 6 as N = N*, during which In this study, the Ic profile calculated from the set of CPT data
repetitive evaluations of the integral in eq. (9) are needed. (see Fig. 2) is used as input in the proposed approach to identify

After the posterior samples are obtained, the MPPV H គ N∗ are the soil stratigraphy at the clay site. Consider, for example, that
identified with relative ease by comparing the values of there are, to the maximum, 10 soil layers within the testing depth,

Published by NRC Research Press


Cao et al. 579

Table 3. Soil stratification results from proposed approach at NGES clay site.
Most probable depths of soil layer lower boundaries Dn∗, n = 1, 2, …, N
ln-evidence Computation
N lnp(_␰|N) lnP(N|_␰) D1∗ D2∗ D3∗ D4∗ D5∗ D∗6 D7∗ D8∗ D∗9 ∗
D10 timea
1 304.99 −48.57 15.00 0.04 s
2 317.91 −35.64 8.15 15.00 2.7 h
3 329.43 −24.13 1.26 6.82 15.00 4.5 h
4 344.79 −8.76 1.23 6.77 8.12 15.00 6.8 h
5 350.35 −3.20 1.24 6.78 8.41 10.64 15.00 8.0 h
6 352.93 −0.63 1.28 5.16 6.77 8.43 10.65 15.00 10.6 h
7 352.70 −0.86 1.20 5.18 6.78 8.48 10.68 13.31 15.00 15.1 h
8 346.66 −6.90 1.33 5.41 6.75 8.47 10.95 11.19 13.21 15.00 19.5 h
9 342.49 −11.06 0.38 1.21 5.36 6.77 8.36 10.92 11.11 13.28 15.00 17.9 h
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10 337.11 −16.44 0.42 1.29 5.56 6.73 6.83 8.89 10.92 11.11 13.27 15.00 18.9 h
Note: Bold values indicate the most probable soil stratification model.
aOn desktop computer with 8 GB RAM and one Intel Core i5 CPU clocked at 2.7 GHz, and N
cs = 100 000.

i.e., Nmax = 10. The possible number (i.e., N) of soil layers therefore Fig. 7. Logarithm of evidence of soil stratification models with
varies from 1 to 10. As the number and thicknesses of soil layers different numbers of soil layers. [Colour online.]
are unknown, there is not sufficient information on ␪n, n = 1, 2, …,
N, to justify some informative and sophisticated prior distribution
for each soil layer. In this study, the prior knowledge of ␪n is
represented by a joint uniform prior distribution given by eq. (11),
where typical ranges of ␮n, ␴n, and ␭n are needed, and it is as-
sumed identical for all soil layers. Without prevailing information
on ␪n, it is suggested choosing ranges of ␪n as wide as possible to
define the uniform prior distribution so that it properly applies to
all the layers. As discussed in section titled “Random field model-
For personal use only.

ing of soil behaviour type index profile”, the Ic value typically


ranges from Ic,min = 0.52 to Ic,max = 4.12 (see Fig. 1). Such a range is
simply taken as the typical range of ␮n in this study. For ␴n, its
theoretical lower bound shall be 0, indicating that no uncertainty
exists in Ic. To the other extreme, the upper bound of ␴n are
considered to occur as the Ic is uniformly distributed within [0.52,
4.12], and then ␴n,max is taken as the standard deviation corre-
sponding to the uniform distribution of Ic, i.e., ␴n,max = (4.12–
0.52)/2 兹3 = 1.04 (Wang et al. 2013, 2014). In addition, the possible
values of ␭n are considered to range from 0.1 m (i.e., ␭n,min = 0.1 m)
to 1.2 m (i.e., ␭n,max = 1.2 m), which are consistent with those
reported in the literature (e.g., Uzielli et al. 2005). Table 2 summa- more complicated constrains (i.e., D1 < D2 < … < DN–2 < DN–1 < DN = H)
rizes the ranges of ␪n adopted in this study, which are considered on layer boundary depths than those on soil layer thicknesses.
sufficiently wide to cover the typical values of random field pa-
rameters of Ic. It is recommended to adopt these ranges of ␪n to Most probable number of soil layers based on the Ic profile
define the prior distribution when using the proposed approach at clay site
unless more informative prior distributions with narrower ranges Table 3 summarizes the logarithms (i.e., lnp(␰_|N) and lnP(N|␰_)) of
can be well justified based on prior knowledge (Cao et al. 2016). the evidence and posterior probability for each possible value of N
Using the prior knowledge and the Ic profile shown in Fig. 2c, obtained from the proposed approach at the NGES site. The value
the proposed approach gives the value of p(␰_|N) (or, equivalent, of lnp(␰_|N) increases from 304.99 to 352.93 as N increases from 1 to
P(N|␰_) in the case of using uniform prior probability of N) for each 6, and then it decreases from 352.93 to 337.11 as N further in-
possible N value varying from 1 to 10 and generates the posterior creases from 6 to 10, which is shown in Fig. 7 as well. Similar trend
samples of HN to numerically represent p(HN|_␰, N) using SuS, in is observed from the value of lnP(N|␰_) as the uniform prior proba-
which p0 = 0.1 and Ncs = 100 000. Based on the p(_␰|N) values and bility of N (i.e., P(N) = 1/Nmax) is used in eq. (4) in this example. It is
∗ found that the soil stratification model with six layers has the
posterior samples of HN, N*, and H គ N∗ are determined for soil strat-
ification. For each set of posterior samples of HN, the correspond- maximum values of lnp(␰_|N) and lnP(N|␰_). Hence, the most proba-
ing depths DN = [D1, D2, …, DN] of soil layer lower boundaries can be ble number of soil layers at the clay site is six, i.e., N* = 6, and its
calculated, and their most probable values D ∗ ∗ ∗ ∗
គ N∗ = [D1 , D2 , …, DN∗] are corresponding occurrence probability P(N|␰_) for N = 6 given the set
determined from H ∗
គ N∗ accordingly. More importantly, the uncer- of Ic profile is about 0.533. It is also noted that the value of lnP(N|␰_)
tainty (or degrees-of-belief) in the identified soil stratigraphy is for N = 7 is equal to −0.86 that corresponds to P(N = 7|␰_) = 0.423,
quantitatively reflected by the posterior probability P(N|_␰) of N and which are close to those (i.e., −0.63 and 0.533) for N* = 6. Then, it
the posterior statistics (e.g., standard deviation) of HN (or DN) eval- can be reasoned that the occurrence probabilities of other N val-
uated from their posterior samples. Note that the soil stratifica- ues (i.e., N = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, and 10) are less than 0.05 and are,
tion along the depth can be uniquely described by either soil layer hence, marginal. In other words, based on the set of Ic profile
thicknesses or layer boundary depths, which are equivalent to shown in Fig. 2c and prior knowledge, it is almost certain that
each other. This study formulates the soil layer thicknesses as there are six or seven soil layers at the clay site. Nevertheless, the
uncertain parameters in lieu of layer boundary depths because occurrence probability (i.e., 0.533) of N* = 6 is not overwhelmingly
the relative locations of different layer boundaries need to be large (e.g., greater than 0.9) in comparison with that (i.e., 0.423) of
considered when using them as updating parameters, leading to N = 7, leading to somewhat ambiguity in N in this example. Such

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580 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

Fig. 8. Posterior samples, marginal probability density functions (PDFs), and correlation coefficients of thicknesses of most probable soil
stratification model with N* = 6. [Colour online.]
Can. Geotech. J. Downloaded from www.nrcresearchpress.com by Wuhan University on 04/26/19
For personal use only.

an ambiguity emphasizes the necessity of quantifying identifica- that the MPPVs of Hn, n = 1, 2, …, 6, determined from the joint
tion uncertainty (i.e., degrees-in-belief) in N. posterior distribution are not identical to those based on their
respective marginal posterior distributions where the peak values
Most probable thicknesses of soil layers and their occur. This is attributed to the fact that the soil layer thicknesses
associated identification uncertainty for N* = 6 are not globally identifiable in this example, which is
Figure 8 shows the posterior samples of thicknesses (i.e., Hn, n = confirmed by bimodal distributions of posterior samples (see top
1, 2, …, 6) of the six soil layers generated by BUS with SuS based on
right-hand panels).
the Ic profile and prior knowledge in the top right-hand panels.
Based on the joint MPPVs of Hn, n = 1, 2, …, 6, the most probable
Using these posterior samples, the marginal posterior PDFs of Hn,
depths (Dn∗, n = 1, 2, …, 5) of five internal boundaries for N* = 6 are
n = 1, 2, …, 6, and the correlation coefficient ␳m,n, where m, n = 1,
2, …, 6 and m ≠ n, between thicknesses of different soil layers are determined as 1.28, 5.16, 6.77, 8.43, and 10.65 m (see row 7 in
estimated, which are shown in the diagonal and bottom left-hand Table 3), respectively. Similar procedures are also applied to other
panels in Fig. 8, respectively. They reflect the six-dimensional N values besides N = 6 to obtain their corresponding most proba-
joint posterior distribution p(HN*|_␰, N*) of Hn, n = 1, 2, …, 6, in a ble depths (Dn∗, n = 1, 2, …, N – 1) of internal boundaries, which are
tractable and visual manner, which quantify the identification summarized in Table 3. For any N, the most probable depth of the
uncertainty associated with thicknesses of the six soil layers based lower boundary of the Nth soil layer is fixed at the testing depth,
on the Ic profile shown in Fig. 2c and prior knowledge. Figure 8 i.e., DN∗ = 15 m in this example. Figure 9 shows an evolution of layer
also shows the respective MPPVs (i.e., Hn∗, n = 1, 2, …, 6) of soil layer identification as N increases from 1 to 10. As N = 1, there is no
thicknesses for N* = 6 determined from their joint posterior dis- internal boundary. The number of internal boundaries increases
tributions by open red circles in the diagonal panels. It is found from one for N = 2 to nine for N = 10. For N* = 6, the five internal

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Cao et al. 581

Fig. 9. Evolution of soil stratification results at NGES clay site as N varies from 1 to 10. [Colour online.]

0 0 0
SBT6
SBT5

SBT4

5 5 5
SBT3
Depth (m)

Depth (m)

Depth (m)
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SBT5
SBT 5
SBT 7

SBT5
SBT 6

SBT 4
SBT 3
SBT 2

10 10 10

SBT5

15 15 15
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6* 7 8 9 10 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
Ic Standard deviation of
For personal use only.

N boundary depth (m)

(a) Ic profile at the NGES (b) Internal boundaries for different N values (c) Standard deviations of
clay site layer boundary depths

boundaries of the six soil layers are plotted by red solid lines in Results comparison
Fig. 9. As a reference, Fig. 9a shows the threshold values of Ic Figure 10 compares the soil stratification results from the pro-
between different SBTs by vertical red dashed lines in together posed approach with those from other methods, such as FBSC
with the Ic profile (see open circles). Then, the respective soil types approach (Zhang and Tumay 1999), BSCS approach based on Rob-
in the six soil layers in order from the ground surface to the depth ertson SBT chart (Wang et al. 2013), and WTMM method (Ching
of 15 m are determined, and they are classified as SBT 6 and 5, et al. 2015b). In general, the soil layers identified from the pro-
SBT 4, SBT 3, SBT 5, SBT 5, and SBT 5 (see Table 1 for detailed posed approach are favorably comparable with those reported in
explanations of SBTs). It is found that although SBTs of soils below these literatures. Note that the SBTs in Figs. 10a and 10b are, re-
the depth of 7.0 m are similar, they are divided into three layers spectively, determined by the Ic value in each soil layer according
(i.e., the bottom three layers) because the Ic in these three layers to the threshold Ic values summarized in Table 1 and by the loca-
have different spatial variability along the depth. The spatial vari- tion of data points (Fr, Q tn) in Robertson SBT chart without the
need of calculating Ic. Hence, some differences in SBTs can be
ability of Ic is, explicitly and quantitatively, incorporated into soil
observed.
stratification through random field modeling in the proposed
One difference in soil stratification results obtained from dif-
approach.
ferent approaches occurs at the second internal boundary identi-
More importantly, using the posterior samples of Hn, n = 1, 2, …,
fied from the proposed approach, which is located at the depth of
6, random samples of depths of the five internal layer boundaries 5.16 m (see Fig. 10a). This boundary was not obtained from the
are calculated, with which their standard deviations are obtained BSCS approach based on the Robertson SBT chart (Wang et al.
through conventional statistical analyses. The standard deviation 2013) and FBSC approach (Zhang and Tumay 1999) (see the second
of boundary depths quantitatively reflects the uncertainty in the and third columns of Fig. 10b, respectively), while a close bound-
location of soil layer boundaries. As shown in Fig. 9c, the fourth ary at the depth of around 5.0 m was identified by the WTMM
and fifth internal boundaries at the respective depths of 8.43 and method (Ching et al. 2015b), as shown by a dashed line in the first
10.65 m (i.e., boundaries of the bottom three soil layers) have column of Fig. 10b. Based on the Ic values, soils in the second and
relatively large standard deviations (i.e., around 0.7 m) in compar- third layers identified from the proposed approach are classified
ison with the top three boundaries. This might be attributed to as SBT 4 (silt mixtures: clayey silt to silty clay) and SBT 3 (clays: silty
the fact that the bottom three soil layers have similar SBTs, and clay to clay), respectively, and the transformation between the
the statistical differences in Ic values within the bottom three soil two SBTs starts occurring at the depth of around 5.0 m. As both
layers are smaller than those in the top three layers. The proposed the proposed approach and WTMM method directly use Ic as in-
approach rationally quantifies the uncertainty in the location of put, it is not surprising to see that one boundary at the depth of
soil layers boundaries identified based on the Ic profile. around 5.0 m is identified from the two approaches. In contrast,

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582 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

Fig. 10. Results comparison. [Colour online.]

Ching et al. Wang et al. Zhang&Tumay Boring Log


This study (2015b) (2013) (1999)
0 0 0
SBT 6 Sandy Clay
SBT6 SBT8 HPM 1.1
1.28 SBT 5

Clay
SBT4 3
SBT3 Highly
probable
SBT3 clayey soil
5.16
4.9
5 5 (HPC)
6.0
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SBT3 6
6.77 Silty Clay
Depth (m)

Depth (m)
Depth (m)
7.1
SBT5 SBT5 SBT5 HPM with HPS
8.43
Highly 9
SBT 5
SBT 7
SBT 6

SBT 4
SBT 3
SBT 2

SBT 5 SBT4 probable


10 SBT4
10 mixed soil
10.65
(HPM) Clay with
Silt Seams
12
Highly probable
SBT5 SBT5
SBT5 sandy soil
(HPS) with
HPM
15
For personal use only.

15 15
1 2 3 4
Ic

(a) This study (b) Results reported in literature (c) Boring log

based on Robertson SBT chart and FBSC approach, soils in the two Fig. 11. Virtual site for simulating the Ic profile.
layers are classified as the same type of soil, i.e., SBT 3 (clays: silty
clay to clay) and highly probable clayey soil (HPC), respectively.
Hence, the layer boundary at the depth of around 5 m was not
identified from BSCS approach based on Robertson SBT chart and
FBSC approach.
Another difference in CPT-based soil stratification results is that
one layer boundary was identified at the depth of around 13.0 m to
divide the soils from the depth of 10.65 to 15.0 m into two layers by
WTMM method, as shown by the lower dashed line in the first
column of Fig. 10b. The boundary does not appear in results from
BSCS approach, FBSC approach, and the proposed approach. The
aforementioned observations indicate that CPT-based soil stratifi-
cation depends on the criterion adopted to discriminate soil lay-
ers. In comparison with the three approaches developed in the
literature, the proposed approach provides not only the most
probable soil stratigraphy, but also quantifies the uncertainty in
the identified soil stratigraphy (see Figs. 8 and 9c), which allows
incorporating uncertainty in soil stratigraphy into reliability-
based analyses and designs of geotechnical structures (e.g., CPT-
based deep foundation design). It shall, however, be pointed out
that the proposed approach may take quite some computation
time because an integral in eq. (9) needs to be repetitively evalu-
ated for calculating the likelihood function. Table 3 shows the
computation time taken on a desktop computer with 8 GB RAM
and one Intel Core i5 CPU clocked at 2.7 GHz for each soil strati-
fication model considered in the NGES example. For a given set of
CPT data, the computation time of the proposed approach is af-
fected by the number, N, of soil layers for a soil stratification
model concerned and the number of samples generated in SuS.
Figure 10 also compares CPT-based soil stratification results (see
Figs. 10a and 10b) with that (see Fig. 10c) based on the boring log

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Cao et al. 583

Fig. 12. Comparison of soil stratification results with true soil stratigraphy at virtual site. [Colour online.]

0 0 0

10 10 10

20 20 20
Depth (m)

Depth (m)
Depth (m)
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30 30 30

40 40 40

50 50 50
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
For personal use only.

Ic Ic Standard deviation of
boundary depth (m)
(a) Simulated Ic profile (b) Internal boundaries identified from (c) Standard deviations of layer
the proposed approach boundary depths
obtained at the clay site. It is obvious that soil stratification results shown in Fig. 11. Using the five lognormal random field models in
from CPT-based approaches are inconsistent with those based on the five soil layers, a profile of Ic is simulated from the ground
the boring log. Such inconsistence is attributed to different soil surface to the depth of 50 m at the interval of 0.05 m, resulting in
classification systems adopted in CPT-based approaches and bor- a total of 1000 Ic data points along the depth. Figure 12a shows one
ing log, which was also reported in the literature (Zhang and profile of Ic simulated at the virtual site, and the figure also in-
Tumay 1999; Robertson 2009; Wang et al. 2013). CPT-based soil cludes actual soil layer boundaries by horizontal red dashed lines
classification is based on mechanical responses of soils during as a reference. The Ic profile shown in Fig. 12a is used as input in
penetration and mainly reflects SBTs, but the soils in four layers the proposed approach to identify soil stratigraphy at the virtual
according to the boring log are classified based on USCS (Zhang site. Consider, for example, Nmax = 10 again. Then, N varies from 1
and Tumay 1999; ASTM 2006) that classifies soils by the grain-size
to 10. In addition, p0 and Ncs are set as 0.1 and 10 000, respectively,
distribution and the Atterberg limits and reflects soil composi-
to perform SuS for BUS.
tions. This indicates that the soil stratigraphy inferred from site
Table 4 summarizes the soil stratification results (including
investigation data relies on soil classification systems (e.g., SBTs
and USCS) adopted to determine the soil type profile. lnp(␰_|N), lnP(N|␰_), and Dn∗, n = 1, 2, …, N) obtained from the proposed
approach for different N values at the virtual site. The maximum
Validation of proposed approach using simulated value of lnp(␰_|N) (or, equivalently, p(␰_|N)) occurs at N = 5, and its
Ic profile corresponding value of lnP(N|␰_) is around zero (i.e., P(N|␰_) ≈ 1). This
indicates that it is almost certain that the number of soil layers is
The actual soil stratigraphy is unknown at a real site and can
equal to five based on the simulated Ic profile at the virtual site,
only be inferred from site investigation data and prior knowledge
which is identical to the true number of soil layers at the site (see
in practice. For further validation, the proposed approach is ap-
plied to identifying soil stratigraphy at a virtual site in this sec- Fig. 11). Moreover, the four internal boundaries identified from
tion, where the actual soil layer boundaries are known and can be the proposed approach are located at depths of 2.75, 5.02, 15.03,
used to simulate the Ic profile for validating the proposed ap- and 35.04 m, as shown by horizontal red lines in Fig. 12b. These
proach. As shown in Fig. 11, the virtual site comprises five soil boundaries are close to their respective true boundaries at depths
layers with respective thicknesses of 2, 3, 10, 20, and 15 m from the of 2.0, 5.0, 15.0, and 35.0 m (see red horizontal dashed lines in
ground surface to the depth of 50 m. Correspondingly, there are Fig. 12a). Slight differences between the estimated depths and the
four internal boundaries located at depths of 2.0, 5.0, 15.0, and true depths of internal boundaries might be attributed to the
35.0 m. To model the spatial variability of Ic, the Ic profile in the random fluctuation in the simulated Ic profile. Moreover, Table 4
five soil layers is represented by five one-dimensional and mutu- also provides the computation time for different N values in this
ally independent lognormal random fields, for which the correla- simulated example. In general, the computational time taken for
tion function is given by eq. (2) and random field parameters are a given N value is less than that for the NGES example (see Table 3)

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584 Can. Geotech. J. Vol. 56, 2019

Table 4. Soil stratification results from proposed approach at virtual site.


Most probable depths of soil layer lower boundaries Dn∗, n = 1, 2, …, N
ln-evidence Computation
N lnp(_␰|N) lnP(N|_␰) D1∗ D2∗ D3∗ D4∗ D5∗ D∗6 D7∗ D8∗ D∗9 ∗
D10 timea
1 1179.30 −128.12 50.00 0.05 s
2 1264.48 −42.95 35.01 50.00 2.6 h
3 1274.35 −33.07 5.01 35.09 50.00 2.5 h
4 1297.40 −10.03 5.00 15.10 35.01 50.00 3.3 h
5 1307.43 0.00 2.75 5.02 15.03 35.04 50.00 3.6 h
6 1301.09 −6.34 2.07 5.00 15.04 17.28 35.01 50.0 2.6 h
7 1296.45 −10.98 2.03 5.01 8.03 15.05 35.29 46.04 50.0 2.1 h
8 1284.07 −23.36 2.75 5.01 5.16 11.10 15.02 35.01 36.74 50.0 3.7 h
9 1284.07 −23.36 2.02 4.60 5.01 15.01 16.41 23.20 28.58 35.02 50.0 3.1 h
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10 1279.12 −28.31 2.03 5.01 5.14 8.37 15.03 18.91 20.50 22.37 35.24 50.0 3.7 h
Note: Bold values indicate the most probable soil stratification model.
aOn desktop computer with 8 GB RAM and one Intel Core i5 CPU clocked at 2.7 GHz, and N
cs = 10 000.

because the number (i.e., Ncs = 10 000) of samples generated in number and thicknesses of soil layers) and rationally quantifies
each level of SuS is much less in this simulated example. the uncertainty in identified soil stratigraphy with the consider-
Figure 12c shows the standard deviations of the depths of four ation of inherent spatial variability of Ic. This allows incorporating
internal boundaries obtained from the proposed approach. Re- uncertainty in soil stratigraphy into subsequent reliability-based
sults show that the standard deviations of depths (i.e., D2 and D3) analyses and designs of geotechnical structures, such as CPT-
of the second and third internal boundaries are less than those of based deep foundation designs.
the other two internal boundaries at depths of D1 and D4. It is not It was also found that the identification uncertainty in soil layer
surprising to see this because the mean value (i.e., 1.8) of Ic in the boundaries provided by the proposed approach reflects statistical
third layer is significantly different from the respective mean differences (e.g., the difference in mean values) in Ic values of
values (i.e., 2.7 and 3.0) of Ic in the second and fourth layers (see adjacent soil layers. Comparing the results obtained from differ-
Fig. 11). In contrast, the differences (i.e., 0.5 and 0.4) in the mean ent soil stratification approaches indicated that soil stratigraphy
For personal use only.

values of Ic in the first and second layers divided by D1 and in the inferred from site investigation data relies on both soil classifica-
fourth and fifth layers divided by D4 are relatively small, leading tion systems (e.g., SBTs and USCS) and soil stratification methods
to relatively large identification uncertainty in D1 and D4. The (e.g., Bayesian model identification, WTMM, and subjective engi-
identification uncertainty in soil layer boundaries provided by neering judgments). It is prudent to select a soil classification
the proposed approach reflects statistical differences (e.g., such as system deemed appropriate to geotechnical analyses and designs
the difference in the mean value) in Ic values of adjacent soil concerned and to perform soil stratification in a transparent and
layers. Nevertheless, further studies on factors affecting probabi- traceable manner.
listic soil stratification (including soil layer identification and un-
certainty quantification) are warranted. Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of
Summary and conclusions China (Project No. 2017YFC1501301), the National Natural Science
This paper proposed a Bayesian framework for probabilistic soil Foundation of China (Project Nos. 51679174, 51579190, and 51779189),
stratification based on soil behaviour type index Ic calculated and Young Elite Scientists Sponsorship Program by CAST (Project
from cone penetration test (CPT) measurements, in which the No. 2017QNRC001). The financial support is gratefully acknowledged.
inherent spatial variability of Ic along the depth is explicitly taken
into account through random field modeling. The proposed References
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