See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/334402261

The regional sectarian war and Syria

Chapter · July 2019

DOI: 10.4324/9780429201967-4

CITATIONS READS

0 100

1 author:

Konstantinos Zarras
University of Macedonia
8 PUBLICATIONS   0 CITATIONS   

SEE PROFILE

Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:

Syrian Civil War View project

All content following this page was uploaded by Konstantinos Zarras on 26 August 2019.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

“This volume is a very important and unique contribution to the current debate
on the causes and consequences of the Syrian uprisings and the subsequent conflict,
which provides new and original perspectives to our understanding. The editors,
who themselves are among the globally leading scholars on Syrian and Middle East
politics, have set a very competent team of experts on the various relevant external
actors and have put together an edited volume with a clear focus and structure that
covers all the relevant external dimensions of the Syrian conflict.”
– Morten Valbjørn, Aarhus University, Denmark
THE WAR FOR SYRIA

Examining the international dimensions of the Syrian conflict, this book studies external
factors relating to the Uprising. It explores the involvement of outside powers and the
events’ impact both on the regional and the international level.
Syria was widely perceived to be essential to the regional power balance, hence it was a
valued prize to be fought over. The book examines the impact of global and regional pow-
ers in propelling the conflict in Syria; looks at the motives and strategies of the key regional
and international actors (Hizbollah, Palestinians, Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, US, Russia,
EU); and analyses the impact of the Syrian conflict on key relations between regional states
(Turkey–Syria, Turkey–Iran, Iraq–Syria). Finally, several chapters treat the impact on Syria
of international sanctions and the “Responsibility to Protect” doctrine. This book follows
on to The Syrian Uprising: Domestic Origins and Early Trajectory, edited by Raymond Hin-
nebusch and Omar Imady (2018). Subsequent volumes will examine the later evolution of
the conflict.
Taking an innovative and interdisciplinary approach that seeks to capture the full complex-
ity of the phenomenon, this book contributes significantly to our understanding of the Syrian
conflict and will therefore be a valuable resource for anyone studying Middle Eastern politics.

Raymond Hinnebusch is professor of International Relations and Middle East Politics

at the University of St Andrews, Scotland. He is founder and director of the Centre for
Syrian Studies. His most recent works on Syria include: Syria: Revolution from Above (2001);
Turkey–Syria Relations: Between Enmity and Amity, co-edited with Ozlem Tur (2013); Syria:
From Reform to Revolt: Politics and International Relations, co-edited with Tina Zintl (2014);
The Syrian Uprising: Domestic Origins and Early Trajectory, co-edited with Omar Imady (2018).

Adham Saouli is senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews. He is currently vis-

iting associate professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Saouli is the author
of Hezbollah: Socialisation and its Tragic Ironies (2019) and The Arab State: Dilemmas of State
Formation (2012). His study “Performing the Egyptian Revolution: Origins of Collective
Restraint Action,” in Political Studies, was nominated for the Harrison Prize (2015).
Routledge/St Andrews Syrian Studies Series
Edited by Professor Raymond Hinnebusch, Centre for Syrian Studies,
University of St Andrews
Editorial Board:
David Lesch, Trinity University, Texas, Yezid Sayigh, Carnegie Research
Centre, Beirut,
Christopher Phillips, Queen Mary University, London, Eberhard Kienle,
Institut Francaise Proche Oriente (IFPO)

This series aims to be the major venue for the dissemination of research on modern
Syria. Although it will not neglect Syria’s past, the focus is on the current conflict.
It showcases work that locates cutting edge empirical research within innovative
theoretical frameworks from all disciplines on, for example, social movements, civil
wars, intervention, identity conflicts, failed states, post-war reconstruction, authori-
tarian resilience, and non-state governance.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Syria

The Democratic Option of Islamism
Naomí Ramírez Díaz

The Syrian Uprising

Domestic Origins and Early Trajectory
Edited by Raymond Hinnebusch and Omar Imady

State and Tribes in Syria

Informal Alliances and Conflict Patterns
Haian Dukhan

Syrian Foreign Policy

The Alliances of a Regional Power
Francesco Belcastro

The War for Syria

Regional and International Dimensions of the Syrian Uprising
Edited by Raymond Hinnebusch and Adham Saouli

For more information about this series, please visit: https://www.routledge.com/

middleeaststudies/series/RSASSS
THE WAR FOR SYRIA
Regional and International
Dimensions of the Syrian
Uprising

Edited by Raymond Hinnebusch

and Adham Saouli
First published 2020
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
 2020 selection and editorial matter, Raymond Hinnebusch and
Adham Saouli; individual chapters, the contributors
The right of Raymond Hinnebusch and Adham Saouli to be
identified as the authors of the editorial material, and of the authors
for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with
sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or
reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical,
or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including
photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or
retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks
or registered trademarks, and are used only for identification and
explanation without intent to infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Hinnebusch, Raymond A., editor. | Saouli, Adham, editor.
Title: The War for Syria : Regional and International Dimensions
of the Syrian Uprising / edited by Raymond Hinnebusch and
Adham Saouli.
Description: London ; New York, NY : Routledge/Taylor & Francis
Group, 2019. | Series: Routledge/St. Andrews Syrian studies
series | Includes bibliographical references and index. |
Identifiers: LCCN 2019011767 (print) | LCCN 2019018677
(ebook) | ISBN 9780429201967 (Ebook) | ISBN
9780429510632 (Adobe Reader) | ISBN 9780429514067
(Epub) | ISBN 9780429517495 (Mobipocket) | ISBN
9780367193713 | ISBN 9780367193713(hardback) | ISBN
9780367193706(pbk.) | ISBN 9780429201967(e-book)
Subjects: LCSH: Syria—Foreign relations—21st century. |
Syria—History—Civil War, 2011- | Middle East—Politics and
government—21st century.
Classification: LCC DS98.6 (ebook) | LCC DS98.6 .W367 2019
(print) | DDC 956.9104/23—dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019011767

ISBN: 978-0-367-19371-3 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-19370-6 (pbk)
ISBN: 978-0-429-20196-7 (ebk)

Typeset in Bembo
by Swales & Willis, Exeter, Devon, UK
CONTENTS

List of illustrations ix
Notes on contributors x

  1 Thinking about the international factor in the Syrian crisis 1

Raymond Hinnebusch

  2 The Middle East regional security complex and the Syrian

civil war 17
Søren Schmidt

  3 The international and regional battle for Syria 37

Christopher Phillips

  4 The regional sectarian war and Syria 50

Konstantinos Zarras

  5 Hizbollah’s intervention in Syria: Causes and consequences 69

Adham Saouli

  6 Palestinian refugees and the Syrian Uprising: Subjectivities,

mobilizations and challenges 86
Valentina Napolitano

  7 Qatar and its rivals in Syria’s conflict 101

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
viii Contents

  8 Saudi policies in the Syrian crisis 120

May Darwich

  9 Iran and the Syrian civil war 138

Jubin M. Goodarzi

10 Iraqi–Syrian relations and the Syrian Uprising 156

Raymond Hinnebusch

11 Turkish–Iranian relations in Syria: Between rivalry and

engagement 176
Özden Zeynep Oktav

12 The 2011 collapse of Syria–Turkey relations: Through a

realist-constructivist lens 189
Marwa Daoudy

13 US policy towards the Syrian conflict under Obama:

Strategic patience and miscalculation 209
Jasmine Gani

14 Russian foreign policy in the early Syrian conflict:

Traditional factors and the role of Syria in the
Kremlin’s wider domestic and international goals 228
Daria Vorobyeva

15 From Russia’s military deployment in Syria to the

Astana process 245
Nikolay Kozhanov

16 The European Union and Syria: From constructive

engagement to marginalization and back? 261
Francesco Cavatorta and Pierre-Michel Turcotte

17 Contextualizing economic sanctions on Syria 277

Ferdinand Arslanian

18 The Responsibility to Protect (R2P) in Syria: A critical

analysis of R2P as an interactional process 299
Nour M. El-Kebbi

Index 322
ILLUSTRATIONS

Figures
12.1 Determinants of Foreign Policy Changes in the Middle East 191
12.2 A Timeline of Syria–Turkey Relations (1950s–2011) 192
18.1 The Cycle of Norm Change 302

Tables
17.1 Key Themes of Statements from US Officials 280
17.2 Key Themes of Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan’s Statements 281
NOTES ON CONTRIBUTORS

Ferdinand Arslanian is a PhD candidate in International Relations at the University

of St Andrews, Centre for Syrian Studies, and a recipient of the Calouste Gulbenkian
Global Excellence Scholarship. His thesis involves explaining how Syria has coped
with economic sanctions. He has previous professional experience in Syria as a
public policy advisor with the German International Cooperation Agency. He also
has several publications on Syria’s political economy and domestic politics includ-
ing “Growth in Transition and Syria’s Economic Performance” (Syria Studies,
2009) and “The Left in the Syrian Uprising” (The Syrian Uprising, 2018).

Francesco Cavatorta is professor of Political Science at Laval University in Quebec

City, Quebec, Canada. His research focuses on the dynamics of democratization,
authoritarian resilience, political parties and civil society activism in the Arab world.
He is currently working on a project examining the relationship between Islamist
parties and neoliberal economics, looking specifically at their party manifestos. He
recently co-edited a volume with Janine Clark titled Political Science Research in the
Middle East and North Africa: Methodological and Ethical Challenges (2018).

Marwa Daoudy is assistant professor in International Relations at Georgetown

University’s Center for Contemporary Arab Studies. She is the author of The Water
Divide between Syria, Turkey and Iraq: Negotiation, Security and Power Asymmetry
(2005). She is currently completing her second book, The Origins of the Syrian
Conflict: Climate and Human Security. She has published on the politics of water,
conflict and negotiation in the Middle East in a wide range of academic journals,
including Cambridge Review of International Affairs, International Negotiation, Journal
of International Affairs, Journal of Peace and Security, The World Today and Water
Policy. Dr Daoudy has also worked with a number of international organizations,
 Notes on contributors  xi

including the UNESCO World Water Assessment Program for the Third World
Water Development Report, United Nations Development Programme and the
UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. In 2005 she won the
Ernest Lémonon Prize from the Institute of France at the Académie française.

May Darwich is assistant professor in International Relations of the Middle East

at Durham University, UK. Between 2014 and 2016, she was a research fellow at
the German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Hamburg, Germany. Her main
research interests are identity politics, security politics and foreign policy in the
international relations of the Middle East. Her research has appeared in interna-
tionally renowned journals, namely Foreign Policy Analysis, Journal of Global Security
Studies, Democratization, Mediterranean Politics and Global Discourse. She is the author
of Threats and Alliances in the Middle East: Saudi and Syrian Policies in a Turbulent
Region (2019).

Jasmine Gani is a senior lecturer in International Relations at the University of St

Andrews. She is author of The Role of Ideology in Syrian–US Relations: Conflict and
Cooperation (2014). Her current research focuses on US policy towards Syria from
9/11 to the Trump administration; ideologies and social movements in the Middle
East; and postcolonial approaches to nationalism and hospitality. She is associate
director of the Centre for Syrian Studies.

Jubin M. Goodarzi is associate professor and deputy head of the International

Relations Department at Webster University Geneva in Switzerland. He was pre-
viously a consultant and political adviser on Middle Eastern affairs for the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in Geneva. He has also worked with a
number of US and UK research institutes and foundations, including the Center
for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, the Royal Institute
of International Affairs (Chatham House) in London, and the Ford Foundation
in New York. Dr Goodarzi is author of Syria and Iran: Diplomatic Alliance and
Power Politics in the Middle East (2009), and numerous articles and book reviews
on the international relations of the Middle East. He holds a BA in International
Studies from the American University, a MA in Arab Studies from Georgetown
University, and a doctorate in International Relations from the London School
of Economics.

Raymond Hinnebusch is professor of International Relations and Middle East

Politics at the University of St Andrews, Fife, Scotland. He is founder and director
of the Centre for Syrian Studies. His works on Syria include Peasant and Bureaucracy
in Ba’thist Syria: The Political Economy of Rural Development (1989); Authoritarian
Power and State Formation in Ba’thist Syria: Army, Party and Peasant (1990); Syria
and the Middle East Peace Process, with Alasdair Drysdale (1991); The Syrian–Iranian
Alliance: Middle Powers in a Penetrated Regional System, with A. Ehteshami (1997);
xii  Notes on contributors

Syria: Revolution from Above (2001); Turkey–Syria Relations: Between Enmity and
Amity, co-edited with Ozlem Tur, (2013); Syria from Reform to Revolt: Politics
and International Relations, co-edited with Tina Zintl (2014); The Syrian Uprising:
Domestic Origins and Early Trajectories, co-edited with Omar Imady (2018).

Nour M. El-Kebbi has a Masters degree in Middle East, Central Asian and Caucasus
Security Studies from the University of St Andrews and a Juris Doctorate degree
from Georgetown University Law Centre. She works as a corporate lawyer in
London. She held an internship with the UNHCR Middle East North Africa
Bureau in the Legal Division.

Nikolay Kozhanov is an associate professor at the Gulf Studies Center of Qatar

University. He is also a research fellow at the European University at St Petersburg.
From 2006 to 2009, he served as an attaché at the political section of the Russian
embassy in Tehran. After the end of his tenure with the Russian Ministry of
Foreign Affairs, Dr Kozhanov started his career as an independent political analyst
and researcher with a special focus on modern Iran and Russian foreign policy
in the Middle East. Kozhanov’s recent publications include Russia and the Syrian
Conflict: Moscow’s Domestic, Regional and Strategic Interests (2016) and Iran’s Strategic
Thinking: The Evolution of Iran’s Foreign Policy 1979–2017 (2018).

Valentina Napolitano is a research fellow at the Institut Français du Proche-

Orient in Amman. Her research focuses on forced migrations, political violence
and social movement in the Middle East, especially in Syria. She holds a PhD from
the Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales in Paris and her dissertation deals
with political mobilizations of Palestinian refugees in Syrian. Her current research
focuses on the dispersion and transformation of family in a context of war and
forced migration, through a study of Syrian refugee families in Jordan. She is a
member of several research project dealing with migrations (ANR Lajeh: https://
lajeh.hypotheses.org/projet and H2020 MAGYC), violence (ANR SOV: https://
sov.hypotheses.org/340) and the Syrian conflict (ANR SHAKK: https://shakk.
hypotheses.org/). One of her latest publications is Violence et militantisme: Parcours
de militants dans le monde arabe, with Calabrese Chiara (ed.), (2017).

Özden Zeynep Oktav is a professor at İstanbul Medeniyet University. She is the

author of Turkey in the 21st Century (2011), Limits of Relations with the West: Turkey,
Syria and Iran (2008) and The Changing Dynamics of the Arab Gulf and Saudi Arabia–
US–Iran Relations (2011); and the co-editor of Turkey in the 2000’s: Opportunities,
Risks and Crises (2015) and GCC–Turkey Relations: Dawn of a New Era (2015). She
was awarded the Government of Turkey, Council of Higher Education scholar-
ship in 2011 and the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey
scholarship in 2013. She was a visiting researcher at Cambridge University, UK
and St Andrews University, Scotland in 2011 and 2013 respectively.
 Notes on contributors  xiii

Christopher Phillips is reader in International Relations at Queen Mary,

University of London and an associate fellow at Chatham House. He has published
academic articles in International Affairs, Third World Quarterly, Middle East Policy,
Small Wars and Insurgencies, Orient, Nations and Nationalism and Mediterranean Politics
and op-eds in The Guardian, The Washington Post, The Atlantic and Newsweek. He
has published two books: Everyday Arab Identity: The Daily Reproduction of the Arab
World (2012) and The Battle for Syria: International Rivalry in the New Middle East
(2016 and 2018).

Adham Saouli is senior lecturer at the University of St Andrews. He is currently

visiting associate professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies. Saouli is
the author of Hezbollah: Socialisation and Its Tragic Ironies (2019) and The Arab
State: Dilemmas of State Formation (2012). His study “Performing the Egyptian
Revolution: Origins of Collective Restraint Action,” in Political Studies, was nomi-
nated for the Harrison Prize (2015).

Søren Schmidt is associate professor at Aalborg University, Denmark. He worked

for the European Commission in Jerusalem and Damascus 1995–2000. His research
interests include civil wars, regional relations, political economy and the role of the
military in democratization and state institutions in the Middle East. His publi-
cations include articles on contemporary developments in the Middle East. He
contributes on a regular basis to the Danish Daily Politiken and to Danish radio and
television on developments in the Middle East.

Pierre-Michel Turcotte recently obtained a BA in Public Affairs and International

Relations at Laval University in Quebec City, Quebec, Canada.

Kristian Coates Ulrichsen is fellow for the Middle East at Rice University’s Baker
Institute for Public Policy, and an associate fellow with the Middle East and North
Africa programme at Chatham House.

Daria Vorobyeva holds a PhD from the Department of International Relations,

University of St Andrews, Scotland. Her thesis was entitled “Forced Ethnic
Migrants’ Integration: Syrian Armenians in Armenia and Lebanon (2011–2016).”
Daria is also working on Russian foreign policy towards the Middle East, especially
Syria. She has been writing and presenting on the topic at a number of confer-
ences, workshops and invited talks.

Konstantinos C. Zarras is adjunct lecturer in Middle East Politics at the University

of Macedonia, Greece. Previously, he was a fixed-term lecturer at the Hellenic Naval
Staff and Command College and a post-doctoral researcher at the Chair in Strategic
Studies of the University of Macedonia. His research interests include international
relations theory and Middle East politics with a particular focus on Syria.
View publication stats