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S. Burcu Avcı1
Abstract
This study presents the first large-scale, comprehensive evidence on the insider trading patterns
and abnormal returns in the Turkish stock market. Starting with a summary of the legislation,
an event study methodology is used to compute daily abnormal returns of almost 65,000 insider
transactions. Findings show that insiders earn 1.56 percent more than the market average return
on the first six days following the trading day. The highest abnormal returns are earned by small
firm insiders. Top executives, officers, directors, legal entities, funds, and large shareholders
earn significantly higher than the market average return. Short-term and midterm abnormal
profits vary with size, the value of the trade, holdings of the insider, relation of the insider with
the company, number of insiders within a company, and whether the transaction is a sale or
purchase.
JEL Codes: G11, G12, G14
Keywords: Insider trading, market efficiency, emerging markets, Borsa Istanbul
1
Sabancı University School of Business. Orta Mahalle Tuzla 34956 Istanbul. Burcu.avci@sabanciuniv.edu
where Pi,t represents the trading day closing price and Pi,t-1 represents the closing price of
the previous day. Abnormal return ARi,t for stock i and day t is computed as:
𝐴𝑅𝑖𝑡 = (𝑅𝑖𝑡 − 𝑅𝑚𝑡 )
where 𝑅𝑖𝑡 is the simple daily return on the stock i traded by insiders on day t, 𝑅𝑚𝑡 is the daily
return to the BIST100 index on day t. Next, following Seyhun (1986), insiders’ abnormal profits,
AP, are computed for each insider trading day:
𝐴𝑃𝑖𝑡 = 𝐻. (𝑅𝑖𝑡 − 𝑅𝑚𝑡 )
where APi,t is the abnormal profits of insiders. Parameter H takes the value of 1 for insiders’
purchases and the value of –1 for insiders’ sales. Each purchase is multiplied by one and each
sale is multiplied by minus one to compute the net abnormal profit after all trades take place in a
day. Thus, insiders make an abnormal profit if the stock price increases more than the increase
in the market return following insiders’ purchases. If the stock market falls, insiders' stock must
fall less than the market to make an abnormal profit. In the case of insiders’ sales, insiders make
an abnormal profit if the stock price falls more than the fall in market return. If the stock market
rises, insiders’ sales are abnormally profitable when insiders’ stock price rises less than the
market.
For each event date t, abnormal profits are averaged across all trading firms around
insiders’ transactions to compute average abnormal profits.
𝑛𝑡
1
𝐴𝐴𝑃𝑡 = ∑ 𝐴𝑃𝑖𝑡
𝑛𝑡
𝑖=1
𝐶𝐴𝑃𝑡 = ∑ 𝐴𝐴𝑃𝑡
𝑡=1
The first two columns of Table 3 display CAP(0,0) and CAP(1,1). These are daily
abnormal profits of the trading day and the next day. The entire sample has 0.54% and 0.43%
abnormal profits for these two days. The profits are significant at 1% level. A, B, E, and H
level insiders make significant abnormal profits in these two days. Most profitable insiders are
H level insiders with 0.89% and 0.51% abnormal profits, and B level insiders with 0.82% and
0.99% abnormal profits. C-level insiders make insignificant losses on the trading day, but
their aftermath profits are positive and significant. D-level insiders make insignificant
negative abnormal profits in both of these two days. J+K level insiders make insignificant
profits.
The third and fourth columns of Table 3 display CAP(0,5) and CAP(1,5). These are
short-term (1 week) abnormal profits of insider trade. The reason to add CAP(1,5) to this
table is to show the path of aftermath profits when we exclude the trading day profit. The
entire sample profits are 1.56% and 1.02%, significant at 1% level. Level A, B, C, E, and H
insiders have all significant short-term profits. The highest profits are earned by B level
insiders (4.35% and 3.53%) and H level insiders (2.02% and 1.13%) respectively. D and J+K
level insiders have positive but insignificant profits for the short term.
The last four columns of Table 3 display CAP(0,21), CAP(0,63), CAP(0,125), and
CAP(0,250) to represent 1-month, 3-month,6-month, and 1-year abnormal profits of insiders.
The cumulative abnormal returns in time; however, the pattern of profits has a stable outlook
in the mid-term: The entire sample, level A, B, C, E, and H insiders have positive and
significant abnormal profits. Level D insiders have insignificant profits or losses. Level J+K
insiders have negative significant profits in the mid-term.
Figure 1 plots cumulative abnormal profits for (-250, 250) period for the entire
sample, shown separately for purchases and sales. Sales and purchases have different paths.
Abnormal returns for purchases increase before the event date but have a clear jump on the
event date. This pattern indicates that insiders are following a momentum strategy, and by
firms that have been doing well in the past.
Abnormal profits from sales, on the other hand, fall until the event date, and have a
jump on the event date, showing extreme abnormal profits after the event, stabilizing around
200 days following their trades. We interpret this pattern as follows. Keep in mind that to
Figure 1: Cumulative Abnormal Profits by Purchases and Sales around the Trade Day
This figure provides CAP(-250,250) values for the entire sample, purchases, and sales. X-axis values are the
number of days around the event date, Y-axis values are cumulative abnormal profits.
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Cumulative Abnormal Profits (%)
10
0
-25
-85
-70
-55
-40
-10
-250
-235
-220
-205
-190
-175
-160
-145
-130
-115
-100
20
5
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
185
200
215
230
245
-5
-10
Panel B provides abnormal profits for all transactions; purchases and sales; and size
groups. The first column is copied from Panel A to compare the values of each subgroup with
the entire sample. The second and the third columns present abnormal profits from purchases
and sales. More abnormal profits are earned from sales (2.01%) than purchases (1.31%) for
the entire sample. A, B, E, H, and J+K level executives’ abnormal profits are mostly from
sales. Abnormal profits of C and D level insiders are mostly from purchases.
The last three columns of Panel B show the distribution of abnormal profits amongst
size groups. The entire sample and A, B, and H insider levels of insiders display a negative
relation between size and abnormal profits. The higher the size, the lower the abnormal
profits. C, and D level insiders show a non-monotonic relation between company size and
10
This figure provides CAP(-250,250) values for small-cap, mid-cap, and large-cap companies. Small-cap and large-
cap companies are the smallest and largest 33 percent of the market capitalization for the entire sample.
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Cumulative Abnormal Profits
12
10
8
(%)
6
4
2
0
-90
-250
-234
-218
-202
-186
-170
-154
-138
-122
-106
-74
-58
-42
-26
-10
6
22
38
54
70
86
102
118
134
150
166
182
198
214
230
246
-2
Figure 3 visualizes CAP(-250,250) for each insider level. Levels B, E, and H are very
profitable while level J+K is the least profitable insider level among all. C-level insiders are
profitable only for the long-term, D level insiders are not profitable at all in the post-event
period.
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This figure provides CAP(-250,250) values for insider levels. Group A includes top 5% executives, Group B
includes the top 20% executives (officers and directors), Group C includes non-executive directors and supervisory
board members, Group D includes lower-level managers, Group E includes legal entities, funds, and trusts, Group
H includes partners, founders, family holdings and large shareholders who have 5% or more shares, Group J
includes exchange-traded funds, and Group K includes international institutional investors.
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Cumulative Abnormal Profits (%)
20
15
10
5
0
-250
-235
-220
-205
-190
-175
-160
-130
-115
-100
-145
-85
-70
-55
-40
-25
-10
20
185
5
35
50
65
80
95
110
125
140
155
170
200
215
230
245
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
where CAPi,t represents short-run and mid-run cumulative abnormal profits. It can have the
values of CAP(0,5), CAP(0,125), or CAP(0,250). Xi,t represents the independent variables that
can be related to cumulative abnormal profits. We use several independent variables: Natural
logarithm of the market capitalization (MarCap); dummy variables representing the highest,
medium, and lowest terciles of size (Mcap_High, MCap_Medium, and MCap_Low are equal
to 1 for small, midsize, and large size companies, respectively; 0 otherwise); the natural
logarithm of the average value of the trade (Val); the average value of the trade divided by the
average holdings of the insider (VH); dummy variables representing the total number of
insiders for the company (N1, N2, N3, N4, N5, N6 are equal to 1 for one, two, three, four, five,
or more insiders, respectively; 0 otherwise); dummy variables representing the level of the
insider (A_ins, B_ins, C_ins, D_ins, H_ins, JK_ins takes the value of 1 for A, B, C, D, H, and
JK level of insiders, respectively; 0 otherwise); a dummy variable representing purchases
(equal to 1 if the transaction is a purchase, 0 otherwise (purchases). γt controls for year fixed
effects.
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Table 5 displays multivariate regression results. The first two columns display
regression coefficients and their t-statistics for the dependent variable CAP(0,5). The first
column includes all independent variables. The second column keeps the independent
variables only significant in the first column. Results show that size variables (MarCap and
MCap_High) and value-to-holdings (VH) have a significantly negative relationship with
short-term cumulative profits. Val has a positive relation with profits. Profits are higher if the
number of insiders is two or three. C-level insiders have lower short-term profits while B and
H level insiders have significantly higher short-term profits. Lastly’ short-term profits are
lower for purchases, which means they are higher for sales.
Columns three and four display the regression results for the dependent variable is
CAP(0,125). The third column includes all independent variables while the fourth column
drops insignificant ones. The negative relation between size and profits is highlighted with the
positive and significant coefficient of MCap_Low only. VH is negative and significant,
indicating negative relation with profits and value-to-holdings of insiders. If the number of
insiders for a company is two or three, then insiders’ profits are higher; however, if the
number of insiders is one, profits are lower. A, D, and JK level insiders make significantly
lower profits for the first six months after the trade. Similar to the short-term regression
coefficients, purchases have a negative relation with profits.
The last two columns of Table 5 represent mid-term abnormal returns up to 250
business days, which is about a calendar year. The fifth column contains all independent
variables while the last column keeps only significant ones. The coefficients show no
significant relationship between size and cumulative abnormal profits. This finding indicates
that long-run abnormal profits are not related to firm size. VH has a negative relation with
abnormal profits. If the number of insiders is only one, this insider is likely to have negative
profits in the medium term. However, if the number of insiders is two, mid-run profits are
more likely to be positive. Being an insider from any level has a negative relation with
cumulative abnormal profits in the mid-term. Purchases will be a source of losses, as a result,
mid-run profits are originated from sales.
In a nutshell, results show that there is a negative relationship between firm size and
short-run and mid-run cumulative abnormal profits. Insiders of smaller companies tend to
have larger profits from their trades. However, as the event window lengthens, this relation
becomes weaker, and it loses significance at one year. On the other hand, we find a positive
relationship between the average value of trade and short-term profits. Value of trade is not
associated with mid-run profits. There is a negative association between cumulative abnormal
returns and value-to-holding ratios. Thus, the fewer shares trades an insider, the more profits
they will make. We can also claim a positive association between abnormal profits and
insiders’ holdings from this relation. The larger the shares of an insider within the company,
the more profits they make from insider trades. Additionally, the most profitable insiders are
from companies with two or three actively trading insiders. If the number of traders is only
one or higher than three, the profitability of trades declines slightly in the short-term, and
significantly in the mid-term. We also find a positive relation between cumulative profits of B
and H level insiders for the short-run; however, the relationship between the level of insiders
13
5 Conclusions
This comprehensive study investigates abnormal profits earned by insiders in Borsa
Istanbul between 2008 and 2019. Our analyses show that insiders are skillful traders because
their profits are significantly above the market averages for the entire sample period. The
cumulative abnormal profits for the first six days after the trade CAP(0,5) is a significant
1.56%, rising to 6.65% after one year. The number of officers and directors is limited;
however, their cumulative abnormal profits for this period are remarkable 4.35%. The largest
portion of the insiders is large shareholders (H level insiders), whose abnormal profits reach
2.02% for the first six days after the insider transaction. The top five percent executives make
0.94%; independent directors make 0.54%; legal entities, funds, and trusts make 1.66%
abnormal profits for the same event window. All of these values are significant at
conventional statistical levels. Lower-level managers and international institutions do not
make abnormal profits.
More abnormal profits are earned from sales (2.01%) than purchases (1.31%) in the
first six days after the trade date. Insider trading profits have a negative relation with company
size. Insider trading profits are larger in smaller companies. Short-run and mid-run cumulative
abnormal profits are persistent up to one year, indicating the results are robust for different
event windows.
Insiders’ profits increase along with the length of holding periods. Persistent abnormal
profits over a decade strongly suggest that access to material nonpublic information is a
source of insiders’ profits. Moreover, outside investors can mimic insiders’ trades to earn
abnormal profits because profitability lasts in the mid-term. Overall, this study provides
evidence for market regulators to investigate potential violations of securities laws. The
abnormal returns constitute evidence for violations of the strong and semi-strong form of
market efficiency.
This study is the first study to test the profitability of insider trading portfolios on a
large scale at Borsa Istanbul. It covers more than a decade (between 2008 and 2019) of all
publicly available transactions on the PDP website. To the best of our knowledge, no earlier
research comprehensively investigates insider trading returns for such a long period.
However, we do not investigate the order of transactions. Given that all profits from round-
trip insider trading within 6 months must be returned to the company, the order of trades gains
importance. Thus, there is room for further research.
Acknowledgments: I thank Patrick Hable for providing me the data used in the analysis, and
Nikolay Vasilev for his assistance in providing data. I am grateful to Nejat Seyhun for his
helpful comments and guidance.
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Panel A: Summary of Insider Trades by Purchases and Sales Entire Sample Purchases Sales
Number of Firms 404 378 378
Number of Trades 64,924.00 40,044.00 24,880.00
Average Trade Size 368,863.10 266,872.50 533,015.40
Total Trades by Group A (Mill. TL) 4,105.69 1,359.57 2,746.12
Total Trades by Group B (Mill. TL) 172.49 78.44 94.05
Total Trades by Group C (Mill. TL) 1,256.71 598.93 657.78
Total Trades by Group D (Mill. TL) 55.13 12.24 42.88
Total Trades by Group E (Mill. TL) 2,560.75 962.16 1,598.59
Total Trades by Group H (Mill. TL) 15,561.20 7,452.58 8,108.62
Total Trades by Groups K and J (Mill. L) 236.10 222.72 13.39
Total Trades (Mill. TL) 23,948.07 10,686.64 13,261.42
Total Volume (Mill. TL) 103,799.00 44,976.46 58,822.49
Panel B: Summary of Insider Purchases by Market Purchases
Capitalization SmallCap MidCap LargeCap
Number of Firms 186 200 159
Number of Trades 11,741.00 12,615.00 15,688.00
Average Trade Size 137,981.40 225,971.00 396,225.10
Total Trades by Group A (Mill. TL) 244.82 441.68 673.07
Total Trades by Group B (Mill. TL) 25.91 16.53 36.00
Total Trades by Group C (Mill. TL) 95.26 195.88 307.79
Total Trades by Group D (Mill. TL) 7.21 3.55 1.48
Total Trades by Group E (Mill. TL) 57.02 374.47 530.66
Total Trades by Group H (Mill. TL) 1,189.83 1,818.51 4,444.25
Total Trades by Groups K and J (Mill. L) - - 222.72
Total Trades (Mill. TL) 1,620.04 2,850.62 6,215.98
Total Volume (Mill. TL) 2,552.51 6,037.65 36,386.31
Sales
Panel C: Summary of Insider Sales by Market Capitalization
SmallCap MidCap LargeCap
Number of Firms 182 192 157
Number of Trades 9,932.00 8,955.00 5,993.00
Average Trade Size 305,476.10 506,484.90 949,751.80
Total Trades by Group A (Mill. TL) 387.71 1,646.12 712.30
Total Trades by Group B (Mill. TL) 46.05 8.16 39.84
Total Trades by Group C (Mill. TL) 145.68 245.64 266.46
Total Trades by Group D (Mill. TL) 14.56 2.18 26.14
Total Trades by Group E (Mill. TL) 40.29 544.62 1,013.68
Total Trades by Group H (Mill. TL) 2,399.71 2,088.84 3,620.06
Total Trades by Groups K and J (Mill. L) - - 13.39
Total Trades (Mill.TL) 3,033.99 4,535.57 5,691.86
Total Volume (Mill. TL) 8,980.13 7,573.25 42,269.12
This table displays a summary of insider trading transactions. The number of firms is the total number of firms
involved with insider purchases or sales. The number of trades is the total number of purchases and sales. Average
trade size is the average number of shares traded in a single transaction. Total trades are computed as the average
price per share multiplied by the number of transactions for the insider group. Total volume is computed as price
multiplied by the number of shares and number of transactions. Group A includes top 5% executives, Group B
includes the top 20% executives (officers and directors), Group C includes non-executive directors and supervisory
board members, Group D includes lower-level managers, Group E includes legal entities, funds, and trusts, Group
H includes partners, founders, family holdings and large shareholders who have 5% or more shares, Group J
includes exchange-traded funds, and Group K includes international institutional investors.
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