Indian Ethanol Production

Overview: The current ethanol development in India can be termed as a ‘turn-around period’ with the outlook being positive for
ethanol manufacturers. Some prospects and challenges of using ethanol include energy security, trade balance and risk reduction;
environmental benefits such as reducing carbon dioxide, hydrocarbons and volatile organic compounds; economic benefits including
in-country capacity utilisation, scope for industry expansion and additional market outlet. India’s small ethanol industry meets its oil,
potable and chemical industry demands.

It is believed that raising the blending limit to 10% will strengthen prospects and Indian sugar mills could soon switch to the Brazilian
style of using cane juice directly for ethanol. To replace 10% petrol, India would need 900 million litres ethanol or an extra 300
million litres next year.

It is believed that the 10% blend ratio will soon be implemented. A 40% implementation rate (implying a 4% overall blend ratio) in
2009-10 are estimated, resulting in 280 million litres of alcohol deficit, to be bridged by direct conversion of cane juice into ethanol.
Direct ethanol production will require an additional 3.5 million tonnes of cane, about 1.2% of estimated production. Most of the
contractual obligations for ethanol supply to oil marketing companies will expire in 2010 following which it is likely that contracts will
be renewed at a higher price.

Ethanol blending programme (EBP) fell considerably behind target this year owing to restricted availability of molasses

Even so, Mandatory E10 blends declared in October 2008

Annual ethanol requirement: 1.6 bln litres

E10 blending likely to be introduced soon

2008-09 (E) 2009-10 (E)

Supply
Sugarcane production (million tonnes) 285 295
Molasses as percentage of cane crush 4.5 4.5
Molasses production (million tonnes) 12.8 13.3
Molasses for alcohol production (percent) 75 75
Molasses consumption rate (litres/tonnes) 220 220
Potential alcohol production (million litres) 2116 2190
Demand
Gasoline demand (million tonnes) 11.5 12.4
Conversion factor (litres/tonne) 1312 1312
Gasoline demand ( million litres) 15113 15113
Ethanol blending rate (percent) 10 10
Implementation rate (percent) 40 50
Automotive use (million litres) 605 817
Potable and industrial use (million litres) 1575 1654
Deficit ( million litres) 63 280
Direct conversion from cane (litres/ tonnes) 80 80
Additional cane required (tonnes) 0.8 3.5
As a percentage of total production 0.3 1.2

Source: Morgan Stanley, September 2008