QUANTUM STONE CAPITAL TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 DETERMINE TREND BIAS
2 IN HARMONY WITH THE TREND
3 CAUSE THAT EXCEEDS OBJECTIVE
4 DETERMINE WHEN TO TRADE
5 TIMEFRAME 1 D E T E R M I N E TR E ND B IA S
Determine where the market currently sits and project
its future trend. Is the market consolidating or trending?
Does your analysis of market structure, supply and
demand indicate the direction that is likely in the near future? This is a major thing to consider as without these factors we are ideally trading a blind range.
This leading onto the reasoning on this being the first
step in the 5-step approach we take to the market. This assessment should help you to decide whether to be in the market at all and if so, whether to take long or short positions.
Determine Quantum Stone
www.quantumstone-capital.com Trend Bias Capital 2 IN H A R M ONY W ITH THE TREND
In an uptrend we would select stocks that are stronger
than the market. For instance, we would choose stocks that demonstrate greater percentage increases than the overall stock market during rallies and smaller decreases during reactions. In a downtrend, the reverse – stocks that are weaker than the overall stock market.
Look at markets that demonstrate clear trend. In an
uptrend, look at markets that are correctively making higher highs and higher lows; upon entry we will take the trade with the trend not against it. In a downtrend, do the reverse – choose markets that are making lower highs and lower lows continuously.
In Forex, we do not have equivalent of stock market
index for all currency pairs. Therefore, one option we have is to use Dollar Index for when we decide to trade USD/XXX or XXX/USD pairs.
If you are not sure about a specific issue, drop it and
move on to the next one. There is never a point in trading a market that is not in sync with current momentum or isn’t in harmony with the trend.
In Harmony With Quantum Stone
www.quantumstone-capital.com the Trend Capital 3 C A U S E T H A T E X C E E DS OBJECTIVE
Select markets with a “cause” that equals or exceeds
your minimum objective. A critical component of Wyckoff's trade selection and management was his unique method of identifying price targets using Point and Figure (P&F) projections for both long and short trades.
In Wyckoff's fundamental law of “Cause and Effect,” the
horizontal Point and Figure count within a trading range represents the cause, while the subsequent price movement represents the effect.
Therefore, if you are planning to take long positions,
choose markets that are under accumulation or re-accumulation and have built a sufficient cause to satisfy your objective. Step 3 relies on the use of Point and Figure charts of individual markets.
We talk more about the Law of Cause and Effect in
Volume 3.
Cause That Quantum Stone
www.quantumstone-capital.com Exceeds Objective Capital 4 DETERMINE WHEN TO TRADE
Determine the markets that are ready to make a move.
Apply the nine tests for buying or for selling. For instance, in a trading range after a prolonged rally, does the evidence from the nine selling tests suggest that significant supply is entering the market and that a short position may be warranted?
Or in an apparent accumulation trading range, do the
nine buying tests indicate that supply has been successfully absorbed, as evidenced further by a low- volume spring and an even lower-volume test of that spring?
By understanding this, we can choose from our list of
markets what to trade, and what to stay away from/avoid for the week ahead.
Determine When Quantum Stone
www.quantumstone-capital.com to Trade Capital 5 TIMEFRAME
Time your commitment with a turn in the stock market
index (Dollar Index). Regardless of the timeframe, your Wyckoff bias should move in harmony with the general market, so you improve the odds of a successful trade by having the power of the overall market behind it.
Specific Wyckoff principles help you anticipate potential
market turns, including a change of character of price action (such as the largest down-bar on the highest volume after a long uptrend), as well as manifestations of Wyckoff's three laws. Put your stop-loss in place and then trail it, as appropriate, until you close out the position.