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Multiple linear regression

(Estimation, Interpretation, confidence and prediction interval)


MMA1402 - Regression and Time Series Modeling

Nanang Susyanto
Department of Mathematics, UGM
Multiple Linear Regression

“Is there a (linear) relationship between overhead and


office size in the population while holding all other
variates constant?”
Normal MLR
!! = #! $ + &! with &! ∼ , 0, / " , 0. 0. 2.
• Distribution of ! = #$ + & is…

• Var(&) is the covariance matrix of the error random vector &.


Least squares estimation of !

minimize the sum of squares of the errors


Least squares estimation of !

minimize the sum of squares of the errors


Normal Equations

Least squares estimate


Maximum Likelihood Estimation

• Likelihood function

• Log-likelihood function
Hat Matrix

The vector of estimated mean values, or fitted values

Hat Matrix
• Symmetric

• Idempotent
Independence of
fitted values and residuals
"
Distribution of !
"!
Distribution of !
"!
Interpretation of !
Confidence interval for !!

Example: Construct A 95% CI for $#


Hypothesis test for !!

Example: Test for significance of $#


Confidence and Predicted Intervals

Confidence Intervals for !!"# Predicted Intervals for "!"#


What is the estimated mean An office is 1000 ft2, 12 years old,
overhead for offices in the with 1300 clients and a col of
population that are 1000 ft2, 12 1.02. What is the predicted
years old, with 1300 clients and a overhead of that office?
col of 1.02?
Confidence Intervals
Predicted Intervals

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