Application of ANN for solar radiation forecasting -

case study of Oryahovo

Zahari Zarkov
Department of Electrical machines,
Faculty of Electrical engineering,
Technical University of Sofia,
Sofia, Bulgaria
e-mail: zzza@tu-sofia.bg
Ludmil Stoyanov
Department of Electrical machines,
Faculty of Electrical engineering,
Technical University of Sofia,
Sofia, Bulgaria
e-mail: ludiss@tu-sofia.bg
Iva DRAGANOVSKA
Department of Electrical machines,
Faculty of Electrical engineering,
Technical University of Sofia, Sofia,
Bulgaria
e-mail: iva.draganovska@gmail.com

Vladimir LAZAROV
Department of Electrical machines,
Faculty of Electrical engineering,
Technical University of Sofia,
Sofia, Bulgaria
e-mail: vl_lazarov@tu-sofia.bg

Abstract—The forecasting of photovoltaic output power is one II. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

of the major problems for integration of large-scale solar systems
for energy producing into the grid. The most challenging aspect of
the solar forecasting is to predict the very short term of
meteorological variables, such as solar radiance, ambient
temperature, and cloud movement variations. Several forecast
techniques for prediction of the solar irradiance are known, but
generally the forecast techniques could be classified in three main
categories physical, statistical and hybrid method. This paper
presents an application of ANN for forecasting of the solar radiance.
For this purpose are used data from Oryahovo, Bulgaria. After the
training of the ANN it is verified by comparison of the forecasted
values with measured data. The precision is satisfying with relative
root mean square error of 5%.
Keywords—Artificial neural network, forecasting, solar
radiance
I. INTRODUCTION
Solar power is the largest renewable energy resource. It is
reported as the first energy input on the planet [1]. During the
last ten years the solar technology for energy production
experienced enormous progress. It is estimated that the power
generation from solar PV will increase with more than 25% in
2019, to over 759 TWh. It remains the fourth-largest
renewable electricity technology in terms of generation, after
hydropower, onshore wind and bioenergy [2]. The high
penetration of solar installations for energy production has
many benefits, but also pose several problems for grid
integration and stability, because of the unpredicted nature of
the primary resource – sun. To manage the variable PV power
generation an accurate model for forecasting is required. The
most challenge aspect of the solar forecasting is to predict the
meteorological variations, such as ambient temperature, cloud
movement variations.
Several forecast techniques for prediction of the solar
irradiance are known, nevertheless generally the forecast
technique could be classified in three main categories
physical, statistical and hybrid method.
This paper presents the application of Artificial neural
network (ANN) for forecasting of solar radiance. This
approach is chosen on the base of short review of the possible
techniques. The training and verification are performed using
data from Oryahovo, Bulgaria.
The output power of PV systems for electricity production
highly depends on the atmospheric conditions, such as solar
irradiance, ambient temperature, wind speed, cloud motion,
which pose several problems to predict the power output.
Knowing the solar irradiance resource will help to predict
accurately the power output.
A research of recent publication on solar power
forecasting was developed by J. Antonanzas [3]. A general
classification of the forecast techniques is presented in Table
1 with the percentage of their application, while on Figure 1
the classification is more detailed and presents the distribution
of the techniques.
Physical models are based on mathematical equations,
which describe physical state. They use characteristics such as
location, orientation, meteorological variables. They do not
require preliminary information of the system or historical
data; therefore, they are applicable for a feasibility studies and
long-term predictions.
Statistical models use historical data to train the model,
and to compare the predicted future values with the historical
measured values. The accuracy of the forecast model depends
on the length, the quantity and the quality of the historical
data. Statistical models can be divided in two sub groups,
named time-series models and artificial neural network. The
statistical models are accurate in short term horizon 1 hour, 6
hours up to 24 hours. [4].
Hybrid models combine two, three or more forecast
technique for prediction of solar irradiance. They provide
better performance than conventional forecast methods.
The Artificial neural network is the most used machine
learning technique in solar irradiance and PV power output
forecasting. The ANN tray to predict further output values
TABLE I. CLASSIFICATION OF THE FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
Method Percentage
Statistical 72%
Hybrid 17%
Physical 11%

978-1-7281-2697-5/19/$31.00 ©2019 IEEE

 The typical structure is presented in Figure 4. They are
constructed of input layer and one or more hidden layer and
one output layer, where all layer is connected to each other.
Multi-layer perceptron neural network is successfully
applied in PV power output and solar irradiance forecasting
[8]. Melt and Pavan successfully used MLP to forecast the
solar irradiance 24 hours ahead with 98% precision during the
sunny days and less than 95% during the cloudy days.

Fig. 1. Distibution of the forecast techniques

based on set of input data. The accuracy of the model is

determined by comparison to real measured data. Artificial
neural networks are widely used in many applications such as
wind power forecast, solar irradiance forecast, solar power
output forecast [5]. ANN models are easy to model, not
expensive and less time consuming then other conventional
method for solar irradiance prediction.
III. ARTIFICIAL NEWRAL NETWORKS ARCHITECTURE
ANN’s are intelligent systems that imitate the behavior of
the human brain, the neurons. As in the brain, series of
identical artificial neurons are connected each other forming
an entire ANN. They are able to predict the behavior of the
complex system within a multidimensional information Fig. 2. Feed forwoard newral network
domain [6].
The structure of the artificial neural network is composed
of layers and nodes:
- Input layer, which contain the initial data;
- One or several hidden layers, which are connected to
the input and output layers;
- Output layer, which contain the output information.
The main problem to create accurate forecast model is to
find the correct ANN structure including, number of the input
variables, number of the hidden neurons, number of the layers.
Several topologies of neural network are known like:
feedforward neural network (FNN’s), multi-layer perceptron
(MLP), recurrent neural network (RNNs) and time delay
neural network (TDNN). Additionally, some other artificial
intelligence (AI) techniques can also be successfully applied
in a short-term forecasting, like example generic algorithms
(GA), fuzzy-logic, Markov chains (MC) [7]. Fig. 3. Reccurent neural network
Feedforward neural network architecture is presented on
Figure 2. The FNN structure is simple, the information moves
from the input to output only in forward directions. This type
of structure has no back-loops.
Recurrent neural network (RNN) is presented on Figure 3.
It is similar to feed – forward neural network but its structure
is more complex. RNN contains input layer, processing layers
and additional node elements. Every processing node is
connected to other processing node as well as with itself.
Unlike feedforward neural networks, RNNs can use their
internal state to process sequences of input.
Most of forecasting models used MLP (multi-layer
perceptron) with back- propagation (BP) training algorithm.
Fig. 4. Multy-layer perceptron

2
 IV. TRAINING A NEURAL NETWORK  Calculates ∆ ;
The most important steps to create accurate forecasting
model are presented on Figure 5. =∑ ( +∆ ) ( +∆ ) (3)
An important aspect of development of artificial neural
 If ≤ then µ=µxβ, otherwise go to the next
network is the correct selection of the input data. The forecast
step
accuracy depends on the type and number of the input data,
number of the hidden layers and respective neurons, activation  If < go to step 3 otherwise µ=µ/β; =
function, learning algorithm. + ∆ go to step 6
Once the input data were selected the second important  If ≤ fixed error or number iteration is
step is the data pre-processing. Different values may be used achieved then
as an input data such as: day, hour, the declination δ, zenith
angle , horizontal global irradiation I, horizontal diffuse After the ANN training a post-processing of data is
irradiation Id horizontal extra-terrestrial irradiation Io , solar necessary.
irradiance on a tilt plane. The data may contain several To judge the accuracy of the model were used the
missing data or either incorrect records. The cleaning of the following formulas [10], where yi and xi are the estimated and
missing records and zero values will lead to positive effect of the measured value, ̅ the respective average value and N is
the ANN performance. After that, the historical data are the data number:
divided into testing and training set. At least the historical data
are normalized between 0 and 1. This process adjust the The absolute value of mean absolute error (MAE) and its
measured data with different scales and convert them in relative value RMAE are calculated by:
common size, using the following equation:
=∑ | − |/N (4)
= (1)
=∑ | − | . ̅ (5)
Where, xmax and xmin are the maximum and minimum The mean bias error (MBE) and its relative value RMBE
values of the series, x is assumed as real value, x normalized is the are expressed by:
normalized value.
The next step is to adjust the neural network with different =∑ ( − )/ (6)
layers and number of neurons.
The choice of training algorithm is essential for ANN =∑ ( − )/ . ̅ (7)
training. The most widely used optimization algorithm is
Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LM). It is an approximation The root means square error RMSR and its relative value
of Newton algorithm. Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm RRMSE are given by:
perform the steps as follows [9]:
= ( − ) / (8)
 Randomly select the initial value of the weight
vectors w
( )
 Calculates Ep for each pattern p: = / (9)

=∑ ( ) ( ) (2) In this work we will develop forecast model using

Artificial Neural Network with multi-layer perceptron
Calculates ( ) for each pattern p. architecture. The study was based on 5 years statistical data
for measured solar irradiance on PV panel tilt plane. The
performance of the model will be compared to real measured
data.
V. EXAMPLE OF NEWRAL NETWORK FOR PREDICTION OF
SOLAR RADIANCE ON A TILT PLANE
The solar irradiance forecast is the first step to predict the
PV power output [9]. The accurate solar irradiance will help
grid operators to maintain the balance between the production
and demand of electricity.
The present study develops solar irradiance forecasting
model, based on statistical data for measured solar irradiance
on a tilt plane. The data were measured by SPV-11 Kipp
&Zonen pyranometers, collected and recorded by SCADA
system of power plant near the city of Oryahovo, Bulgaria.
The date was measured during five-year period each second.
The data used for the present study are collected and
regrouped at 10 minutes intervals.
Fig. 5. ANN training algorithum

3
 As mentioned, Multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks is because of the climate variations. This is the reason to show
used to develop the model for solar irradiance forecasting for the results from the testing period from January to April. The
day ahead. The model consists of one input layer, one hidden errors for this test are shown in Table 3. The RRMES for this
layer and one output layer. The input layer receives as period varies from 4% to 25%. The best error is obtained again
parameters the measured daily solar irradiance of six previous for the model with 20 hidden neurons. The real measured data
days, while the output layer gives as output the 24 h evolution for one arbitrary day from the testing period is compared with
of solar irradiance at the next day. The number of the neurons the simulated values on Figure 9. In clear sky day, with
in the hidden layer varies from 5 to 35 and is optimized during absence of clouds the model perturbance in the morning is
the learning steps of the neural network. The neural network evident. However, the accuracy of the prediction is satisfying.
structure is present in Figure 6.
Another illustration of the obtained model performance is
The available measured data are divided in two periods. realized on Figure 10. This figure shows comparison between
The data from the first three years are used for ANN training,
while the data from last two years are used to test the
performance of the model. On the other hand, when such TABLE II. ERRORS FOR THE TRAINING PERIOD FROM
MAY TO AUGUST
number of the data is used, the input is too large. This is the
reason to divide the year on 3 periods from 4 months each. All number of
data is pre-processed and the incorrect and zero values are MAE RMAE MBE RMBE RMSE RRMSE
neurons
cleaned to achieve better results.
Wh/m2 [%] Wh/m2 [%] Wh/m2 [%]
The software Matlab is used for forecasting of hourly solar N_5 197,27 45% -0,93 -20,98% 0,97 29,22%
irradiance. The weights of the neurons are adjusted by N_10 190,45 43% 0,82 18,46% 1,30 25,52%
Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, so that the neural network N_15 191,97 43% 0,80 18,23% 1,37 25,10%
produces the required output for the given input data. N_20 182,94 41% 0,18 4,03% 2,02 5,62%
N_25 186,67 42% 0,83 18,76% 2,05 25,75%
From the results it is evident that the number of hidden 182,45 41% -1,10 -24,97% 1,89 35,01%
N_30
neurons is essential for neural networks performance. First,
N_35 177,67 40% -2,21 -50,14% 0,73 70,15%
are presented the results during the training period. Two
periods are presented – from May to August and from
TABLE III. ERRORS FROM THE TEST FOR THE PERIOD
September to December. All errors for the first four months FROM JANUARY TO APRIL
period are presented in Table 2. The most important error to
judge the trained model accuracy is the relative root means number MAE RMAE MBE RMBE RMSE RRMSE
of
square (RRMSE). The calculated error for the considered neurons
training period is between 6% and 70%. Similar errors are Wh/m2 [%] Wh/m2 [%] Wh/m2 [%]
obtained for the other periods. The best results are obtained N_5 187,79 46% -0,82 -20,02% 0,82 16,25%
for ANN with 20 hidden neurons. The results from neural N_10 188,49 46% 1,00 24,50% 1,00 19,89%
network architecture with 20 hidden neurons are highlighted N_15 175,33 43% -1,14 -27,98% 1,14 22,71%
in Table 2. To illustrate the results during the training period N_20 183,59 45% -0,22 -5,40% 0,22 4,38%
Figure 7 and 8 show comparison between the real measured N_25 174,58 43% -1,19 -29,01% 1,19 23,55%
N_30 164,96 40% -1,28 -31,31% 1,28 25,42%
data and the obtained trained simulation result for two
N_35 166,04 41% 1,22 29,93% 1,22 24,30%
arbitrary days. We observe that the simulation is with
satisfying accuracy.
To affirm the model accuracy, it was decided to test the 1200
mesured
performance of the ANN architecture with 20 hidden neurons 1000
simulation
with different input data. According to the authors’ experience 800
in Bulgaria the spring season is most difficult to predict
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Fig. 6. Comparison of the measured and simulated day ahead solar

radiance during training for 09.06.2015 for N=20

1200
mesured simulation
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Fig. 8. ANN with input data for six days measured solar irradiance,
output 24-h day ahed forecast

4
 1000
measured data is used for the ANN training and testing. The
900 mesured input layer of the ANN accepts as parameters the measured
800 simulation daily solar irradiance for six previous days. After data
700
600
preprocessing and the training procedure, it has been found
500 that the artificial network with 20 hidden neurons shows the
400 best performance compared to the other structures. The
300
200
average calculated relative root means square error is between
100 4% and 5%. More in-depth analysis of the comparison
0 between measured and forecasted solar radiation shows that
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during the clear sunny days the model accuracy is higher,
meanwhile in presence of could the model performance is less
Fig. 9. Comparison of the measured and simulated day ahead solar precise.
radiance during testing for 17.02.2018 for N=20
Further researches will be proposed forecast models with
1200
mesured simulation
different ANN typologies and different input data.
1000
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
800
The authors would like to thank the Research and
600 Development Sector at the Technical University of Sofia for
400 the financial support.
200
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