E.
EIDE
Digital Kongsberg Digital, Oslo, Norway
Hybrid modeling: Unlocking the value of data
for oil industry assets
We live in a world increasingly driven by data scenarios for
advanced analytics, predictive modeling and machine learn-
ing (ML), but how reliable is this for large oil and gas assets
where safety and reliability are of paramount importance?
Can the industry rely purely on machines to anticipate its
needs, or does it need to stay with the more traditional physi-
cal modeling to determine safety, lifetime and maintenance
of assets? The author believes the answer lies in a combina-
tion of the two.
There is no denying the value of data. Historically, there
was not enough data to support ML algorithms, which im-
prove with greater volumes of historical data.
However, the falling cost and size of electronics, distribut-
ed intelligence, easy connectivity and the Internet of Things
(IoT) have contributed to an exponential rise in the amount
of data available about assets and processes. Termed ‘big
data,’ this opens the possibility of deeper insights into the
performance of assets.
However, pieces of data on their own do not add value—
this only comes with context and domain knowledge to en-
able the interpretation of data and extract value from it. If
done correctly, the benefits can be huge, including reduced
costs, optimized capacity and less downtime.
Artificial intelligence (AI) technology is only an enabler
to handle data. However, it must offer and require business
input and domain knowledge for an organization to harness
the reward. In addition, it needs to be combined with cross-
collaboration of data scientists and software engineers who
can build a good, data-driven solution. Put these together
correctly, and only the imagination limits the use cases for
the oil and gas industry. For example, steps to increase the up-
time and performance of an oil rig by detecting component
fatigue and identifying areas of predictive maintenance could
save companies millions of dollars a year.
How can safety be ensured? One of the challenges for
heavy-asset industries is to manage safety-critical applica-
tions. How do you know you have the required data quality?
With the complexity of constantly changing assets and
evolving processes, a pure data-driven model has difficulties
in analyzing and predicting time series for safety-critical ap-
plications. It may also not include enough of the operating
space to really understand the underlying physics, especially
with the complexity of incorporating energy and mass con-
servation, or it may not have enough historical data to learn
the insights needed. This could result in biased decisions,
missed opportunities, outdated decisions, and, critically, put
equipment, the environment and people at risk. This is where
high-fidelity simulators using physical models can help.
High-fidelity simulators are tried and proven and, as they
are based on first-principle physics, ensure system modeling
in the full domain of operations. However, they are computa-
tionally expensive, making frequent predictions and real-time
optimization difficult. Solving these physics-based models
can also be complicated and time-consuming, and they may
suffer from small differences between the plant and model as
components wear or hidden parameters change.
The problem is that both pure data-driven models and
high-fidelity simulators on their own have too much uncer-
tainty to provide reliable, timely predictive and prescriptive
analysis in safety-critical applications. The answer lies in a
hybrid of the two.
Hybrid modeling: Unlocking the value of data. Al-
though pure data-driven models and high-fidelity simulators
of the physical world each have shortcomings alone, they
complement each other perfectly. Data-driven models can
learn statistical dependencies and process data a magnitude
faster than simulators. Conversely, physical models offer ro-
bustness and transparency to ensure crucial, underlying fac-
tors are not missed.
Correctly engineered and with enough information from
current operations, physics-based models and simulators
can help the user understand complex processes and predict
future events. This method is widely used and well-proven
across multiple applications, including predicting the orbits
of rockets or the behavior of nano-sized objects in modern
electronics. ML algorithms are also designed to predict out-
comes, which depend on the problem being addressed.
Fundamentally, there are two different scenarios for pre-
dictive modeling. In the first, there is a lot of experimental
data on the behavior of the system but no direct theoretical
knowledge. This makes it impossible to formulate a mathe-
matical model of the system. Using ML algorithms, however,
underlying patterns and correlations can be identified, and
predictions made.
In the second predictive modeling scenario, the prob-
lem being addressed can be described using a physics-based
model. This does not mean that a ML approach will not
work. Using artificial neural networks designed to emulate
the human brain and given enough examples of how the
physical system behaves, the ML model will learn physics in
the same way humans learn and, over time, it too will make
accurate predictions.
Hydrocarbon Processing | OCTOBER 2021 19
 Digital
By combining a physics-based model with ML in a hybrid
modeling scheme, the best of both approaches is achieved.
The result is a system that uses data-driven modeling, which
is enhanced by the first-principal, physics-based models. This
hybrid solution offers the robustness and quality of a high-
fidelity simulator with the speed of response of a ML solution.
Enhancing data-driven models and physical simulators.
Historical records can often lack the volume of data over suf-
ficient periods to get robust predictions from ML algorithms.
However, all potential operating scenarios can be created and
taught to the data-driven model by simulating data.
Equally, data collected in real time and analyzed by the
data-driven model can improve simulators to create a bet-
ter match with reality and incorporate behavior outside the
scope of the physical model. For example, perceptual quan-
tizer curves can change slowly over time or experience a sud-
den step change if the well configuration on the other side of
the pipeline changes. Models can be better matched to ‘what
if ’ scenarios using real-world data.
Advantages of hybrid modelling. Using a hybrid model
offers several benefits. This approach means the modeled
state is updated using real-time data, and data for the ML al-
gorithm to ingest can be generated around typical operating
conditions using the simulator. The ML algorithms offer the
speed required to optimize the value of real-time data and can
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20OCTOBER 2021 | HydrocarbonProcessing.com
be used to optimize the system. Once the ML model makes
a fast prediction, this can be checked in the simulator, and
the solution fed back to the operator. The resulting solution
offers the speed and versatility of a data-driven model and
incorporates the transparency and physical constraints of the
system provided by the simulator, providing verification and
trust for safety-critical applications.
Takeaway. In a data-driven world, the value contained with-
in is continually increasing and can offer tangible benefits to
the oil and gas industry. The value of this data decreases over
time, so a fast response will deliver greater advantages. How-
ever, this cannot be at the expense of safety, and modeling
systems must provide transparency and robustness to ensure
decisions are not biased and risks to people, assets and pro-
cesses are not increased.
On their own, both pure data-driven models and physical
simulators have shortcomings. However, a hybrid modeling-
based solution offers an exciting new prospect to reap the
benefits of both approaches to deliver an enhanced, reactive,
robust modeling solution in safety-critical, heavy industrial
applications.
EIVIND EIDE is a Senior Engineer at Kongsberg Digital. Based in Oslo, Norway,
he has solid experience in applied ML, hybrid ML and software development
for industrial applications. He leads a team developing mathematical modeling
powered SaaS products for the energy industry. Mr. Eide earned an MS degree
in information engineering from the University of Cambridge.
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