VOLUME 25, ISSUE 5, September 2021

J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45

Long period changes in 850 hPa level temperature and geo-potential height in
composite anomaly for April-May over the region from South Indian Ocean to
Indian Sub- continent
Vinod Kumar1* and M. Satya Kumar2
1Shyam Bhawan, Ashok Nagar, Road No. 11, Kankarbagh Colony, Patna- 800020
2H.No. 6-3-565, Flat No. 301, Akshaya Aparment, Somajiguda, Hyderabad-500082

*Corresponding Author: vinodmanjusingh@gmail.com

ABSTRACT

Influence of climate change is visible in recent times on summer monsoon rainfall over India in terms of variation in monthly and seasonal rainfall
quantitatively. Continuous negative composite anomaly, usually observed during the first 6 to 7 decades of 20th century at 850 hectopascal (hPa) geo-
potential height for months of April-May/Jun-Sep from 40ᵒS towards Indian sub-continent, has disappeared gradually since1975. For example, it was
observed for 15 years out of 28 years (53.5%) from 1948-1975. Positive temperature anomaly at 850 hPa from 40ᵒS/50ᵒS towards Indian sub-
continent/southeast Asia, has now gradually replaced continuous negative temperature anomaly after 1975.

Key words: Composite anomaly, 850 hPa level, Geo-potential height, Continuous negative anomaly, Continuous positive anomaly. South Indian
Ocean, Indian-sub continent

INTRODUCTION year 1918 received the lowest rainfall (75.1% of LPA),

Presence of excess carbon dioxide and other greenhouse
gases in the atmosphere, destabilises the climate dynamics
leading to abnormal weather related events, including global
warming, higher sea surface temperature, melting of ice in
Antarctic and Arctic regions, resulting in the rise of sea
level etc. Antarctica contains Earth’s largest ice sheet,
which currently locks away about 58 meters of Sea level
rise. Recent studies indicate that in a warming scenario,
more of the surface of Antarctica ice sheet will melt.
Whether this new water collects in lakes, moves in rivers or
is absorbed in near surface snow like a sponge, has
tremendous consequences for rising Sea level around the
globe (https://phys.org/news/2018-11-highlights-complexity
-antarctica.html).
Beginning from the current century, some of the important
weather and climate related events took place in India: July
2002 rainfall was the lowest (-51%) in 100 years. Not a
single intense low pressure system, like depression/cyclonic
storm formed during this season. The lack of monsoon
depressions was an unusual feature of the season, as no
similar case had been found in the recorded account of past
130 years (Weather in India, 2003). The seasonal rainfall
over the country as a whole was 78% of its Long Period
Average (LPA). This large rainfall deficiency on a wide
spatial scale categorises the south west monsoon 2009 under
all India severe draught year, preceded by 2002 and 2004.
For the country as a whole, the rainfall was 53% of LPA in
June 2009 (Weather in India, 2010), which was 2nd worst in
the last 108 years after 1926 (52%). The inter-annual
variability of monsoon rainfall over India shows more
number of draught years (23 years/20.2%) compared to the
flood years (14/12.2%) during the period 1901 to 2014. The
followed by the years 1972 (76.1%) and 2009 (78.2%) with
negative departures exceeding 2 standard deviation (-20%
of LPA) value. Similarly, the excess rainfall ever recorded
is found to be in 1917 (122.9%) followed by 1961 (121.8%
of LPA) where the positive departures of seasonal rainfall
exceeds 2 SD (+20%) value. Although, the large variability
of All India Summer monsoon rainfall and monthly rainfall
does not show any significant linear trend, however, there
exists trend in the sub-divisional rainfall with three sub-
divisions, viz, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Kerala showing
significant decreasing trend and eight sub-divisions, viz,
Gangetic west Bengal, West Uttar Pradesh, Jammu and
Kashmir, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra,
Rayalaseema, coastal Andhra Pradesh and North Interior
Karnataka showing significant increasing trend (Rathore et
al., 2016). The reported rate of retreat of glaciers in the
Nepal Himalayas ranges from several meters to 20 m/year.
Warming rate in Trans- Himalayas (Jamsom) is about
0.029ᵒC/year (Nayava et al., 2017). Based on trend analysis,
a statistically significant increasing trend was identified in
surface temperature in South India and based on regression
analysis, this was found to be of the order of 0.23ᵒC over the
period. Surface pressure has increased all over India in the
order of 1.94 hPa. Relative humidity showed a significant
decrease in south India, eastern coastal region and in the
northern most tip. The southern India is most venerable to
climate change (Chithra et al., 2018). Jaswal et al. (2015)
observed that the increase in number of high temperature
days is maximum in southern India. Weather reports have
shown that global mean surface temperature has warmed up
by approximately 0.6ᵒC since 1850, and it is expected that
by 2100, the increase in temperature could be 1.4-5.8ᵒC
(Singh et al., 2008). Lal et al. (1995) suggested that the
increase in annual mean minimum and maximum surface air

36
Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar
temperature would be of the order of 0.7-1.0ᵒC in the 2040’s
in comparison with 1980’s. Long term analysis of rainfall
and temperature at six locations of mid Himalayan region
are: Mean annual maximum temperature showed highly
significant positive trend (1.1ᵒC/ decade) at Salooni,
followed by the trends 1ᵒC, 0.6ᵒC and 0.5ᵒC per decade at
Shimla, Palampur and Bajaura respectively. Mean annual
minimum temperature showed significant negative trend (-
0.4ᵒC/decade) at Ranichouri and no significant trend at other
locations (Kumar et al., 2015). Gruza and Rankova (2012)
noted that the global warming which started in the
beginning of the 20th century had not been uniform. There
are three intervals: the warming of 1910-1945, the slight
cool down of 1946-1975 and the most intensive warming
starting after 1976. The beginning of 21st century remains
the warmest quindecinnial of the whole history. Russia is
much more susceptible to climate influences than the North
Hemisphere and the Earth as a whole.
The analysis of monthly surface wind speed data of 171
well distributed stations for 1961-2008, shows that most of
the stations in India have experienced weakening of wind
speed, both at monthly and annual timescales. Several
recent studies have shown decreasing surface wind speed
over the United States, Canada, Australia, China and parts
of Europe. Taking into consideration that wind is an
important meteorological parameter, the findings indicate to
possible global climate change (Jaswal and Koppar, 2013).
About 60% of the world is covered by cloud, and cloud is
an important factor in weather prediction and climate
change. Low-level clouds have a strong effect on Earth’s
radiative budget for they effectively reflect incoming solar
radiation with only small influence on outgoing long wave
radiation (Wood, 2012). An analysis of the cloud data
indicates that there has been a general decline in mean daily
low cloud cover over most parts of the country during the
past 50 years (1961-2010), but increase in the Indo-
Gangetic plains and northeast India (Jaswal et al., 2017).
The decadal variation of seasonal average of heat wave
(HW) days over India showed that during the past five
decades (1961-2010), many areas of eastern parts of
peninsula, north and northwest India and some areas of
central India had experienced on an average 8 or more days
of HW per season. The average number of HW days
experienced and the areas that experienced average HW
days of 8 or more was relatively higher during recent two
decades (1991-2000 and 2001-2010) compared to previous
three decades. The observed increase in the frequency of
HW days over India is in tune with studies conducted in
various other parts of the world (Pai et al., 2013). In 2018,
the world was 1.5ᵒF (0.83ᵒC) warmer than the average
37
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45
temperature between 1951-1980, as per NASA and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA). This implies that 2018’s average global
temperatures were the fourth warmest since 1880, placing it
behind 2016, 2017 and 2015. But 2016 remains the warmest
on the record due to a particularly strong El- Nino
(https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/06/glo
bal-temperature-2018-record-climate-change-global-
warming). The globally-averaged temperature in 2016 was
1.78ᵒF/0.99ᵒC warmer than the mid-20th century mean,
(https://www.nasa.govt./press-release/nasa-noaa-data-show-
2016-warmest-year-on-record-globally). Phalodi in India
recorded 51.0ᵒC on 19th May 2016. The complex
topographical features of the Indian sub-continent such as
high Himalayan ranges have started showing the effects of
global climate change. Himalaya modulates weather over
entire northern belt of the Indian sub-continent. It also
influences the western disturbances during winter over the
region. Data analysis of western Himalaya shows significant
variations in temperature and total precipitation trends in the
past few decades. During the past 24 years (1984-85 to
2007-08), seasonal average temperature increased by about
2ᵒC and seasonal snowfall during the past 18 years (1990-91
to 2007-2008) decreased by 240 cm approximately (Shekhar
et al. 2013).
Among the natural calamities, the frequency of cyclones has
increased having higher intensity in recent times which are
the consequences of the changing climate (Chauhan et al.,
2021). Over the Himalayan region, changes in temperature,
and precipitation patterns and their impacts on natural
resources like water resources, glaciers, ecology, agriculture
etc. are being attributed to changing climate (Dimri and
Dash, 2012; Shekhar et al., 2010). Bhutiyani et al. (2007)
revealed a significant increase in air temperature by about
1.6ᵒC in the region of northwest Himalayan over the last
century, with winter warming at faster rate. Based on
observed data and model reanalyzed fields, Dash et al.
(2007) found that the atmospheric surface temperature in
India has increased by 1 and 1.1ᵒC during winter and post
monsoon season. Many regions in India including the west
coast, central India, the internal peninsula and northeast,
have shown a warming trend in climate. According to the
sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a
technical paper on climate change and water (Bates et al.,
2008), reported that changes in the large-scale hydrological
cycle have been related to increase in the observed
temperature over several decades. The first instalment of
IPCC working Group I report (IPCC’s Sixth Assessment
Report, AR6), which was released on 9th August 2021,
provides new estimates of the chances of crossing the global
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45
warming level 0f 1.5ᵒC in the next decades, and finds that
unless there are immediate, rapid and large scale reduction
in green house gas emissions, limiting warming to close to
1.5ᵒC or even 2ᵒC will be beyond reach
(www.ipcc.ch/2021/08/09/ar6-wg1-20210809-pr/).
The aim of the present study is to examine the long period
changes in 850 hPa temperature and geo-potential height
anomaly from south Indian Ocean to India sub-continent.
The changes in the number of years of normal/deficient
monsoon rainfall over India and its four homogeneous
regions, namely, northwest India, northeast India, central
India and south peninsular India, have also been examined,
together with the impact of climate change on Indian
Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR).
DATA AND METHODOLOGY
All India Monsoon Rainfall (AIMR) data from 1901 to 2020
had been collected from IMD’s website. Anomaly of 850
hPa level geo-potential height, temperature, relative
humidity, vector wind for April-May and for June-
September for a period of 72 years (1948-2020) have been
prepared using NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
(U.S.A.) website. ENSO bulletins prepared by Climate
Prediction Centre/ NCEP (NOAA), USA, have been used
for ONI values for Nino 3.4 region from 1950-2018. The
period 1948-2019 had been divided into two groups: 1948-
1975 and 1976-2019 as 850 hPa temperature composite
anomaly and geo-potential height composite anomaly for
Apr-May had been found completely distinct (Gruza and
Rankova, 2012). The composite anomaly for April-May of
these two groups of years at 850 hPa level geo-potential
height, temperature, relative humidity, vector wind have
been analysed and compared with Normal and deficient
monsoon years observed during these two groups.
Figure 1. 850 hPa temperature composite anomaly for Apr to May, 1948 to 1975
38
Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Air temperature anomaly at 850 hPa level
As mentioned above, the influence of thermal advection at
850 hPa level is typically felt at the surface about a day later
of warm/cold air advection at 850 hPa, therfore, indicative
of rising/falling temperature at the surface. Accordingly,
850 hPa level air temperature anomaly has been examined
from 1948-2019 to know the trend of temperature change
from southern hemisphere to Indian sub continent. Figure 1
gives the composite anomaly for the period April-May
1948-1975. Continuous negative anomaly is seen towards
Indian sub continent through Atlantic Ocean (AO) –
Arabian Sea (AS) between 40ᵒS-10ᵒN/40ᵒW-065ᵒE; Indian
Ocean (IO)-AS between 60ᵒS-20ᵒN/35ᵒE-090ᵒE; IO-Bay of
Bengal (BOB) between 060ᵒS-10ᵒN/090ᵒE-120ᵒE and
through Pacific Ocean-BOB between 50ᵒS-10ᵒN/170ᵒW-
120ᵒW. Figure 2 gives the composite anomaly for the period
April-May 1976-2019. Continuous positive anomaly is seen
towards Indian sub continent through AO- AS between
60ᵒS-18ᵒN/040ᵒW-070ᵒE, from South IO between 60ᵒS-
20ᵒS/ 060ᵒE-095ᵒE and from Pacific Ocean between 060ᵒS-
20ᵒS/120ᵒE-120ᵒW. A comparison of Figures 1 and 2 shows
that the positive anomaly is dominant from south IO to
Indian Sub continent/20ᵒS. So, trends of global warming are
becoming more apparent. The year 2016 was observed as
the warmest year, on record, the dominant positive air
temperature anomaly could be seen from AO, IO and
Pacific Ocean (Figure 3a). This feature had not been
observed during 2015 (Figure 3b), 2017 and 2018, which
were also warmer years.
Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45

Figure 2. 850 hPa temperature composite anomaly for Apr to May, 1976 to 2019.

Figure 3a. 850 hPa temperature composite anomaly for Apr to May, 2016

Figure 3b. 850 hPa temperature composite anomaly for April to May 2015

39
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45 Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar

Geo-potential height anomaly at 850 hPa level observed from Jun-Sep during 1950 and 1970. Negative
anomaly during the decades of 1950s, 1960s and 1970s had
Anomalies of geo-potential height of 850 hPa level from
been observed for 7 years, 5 years and 3 years respectively.
040ᵒW-180ᵒ-080ᵒW/40ᵒS/60ᵒS have been analysed from
The continuous negative anomaly along 40ᵒS that had
1948-2019. Continuous negative anomaly from 40ᵒS (also
dominated the period from 1948 to 1975 (Figure 4a), got
from 60ᵒS) to at least 30ᵒN, during April-May, had been
reduced and became non-existent after 1975. The
observed during 12 years: 1950, 1955, 1956, 1958, 1960,
continuous negative anomaly low pattern north of 60ᵒS from
1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1970, 1971, 1975 and during 3
1948-1975 (Figure 4a) had changed to Highs and Lows
years from June-September: 1948, 1957 and 1959 from
combination from 1976-2019 (Figure 4b). In Figure 5a,
1948-1975. During all these 15 years, normal to excess
continuous negative anomaly of geo-potential height, for the
rainfall had occurred over India during summer monsoon
year 1975, is seen from north of 50ᵒS covering some parts
(Kumar and Kumar, 2021), although, El-Nino had
of AO, IO including AS and BOB, and Pacific Ocean with
developed in 1957, 1958 and 1963. Out of these 15 years,
land masses of the continents.
continuous negative geo potential height anomaly was not

Figure 4a. 850 hPa Geo-potential height composite anomaly for Apr to May:1948-1975.

Figure 4b. 850 hPa Geopotential height Composite anomaly for Apr to May: 1976 to 2019.

40
Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar
Figure 5a. 850 hPa Geopotential height composite anomaly for Apr to May, 1975.
Figure 5b. 850 hPa geo-potential height composite anomaly for Aug, 2020.
Continuous negative anomaly of geo- potential height was
not observed for April-May 2020, but after interval of 44
years, it was observed for July (up to 16ᵒN along west coast
of India), August (up to north of 30ᵒN) and September (up
to north of 30ᵒN) 2020 from 40ᵒS. But it was more marked
in August 2020 (Figure 5b). Continuous negative anomaly
of geo potential height from June to September 2020 had
been observed from 40ᵒS but only up to 20ᵒN over AS and
along west coast covering some portions of peninsular India
(Figure 5c). High- Low combination was observed along
40ᵒS during June 2020. Importance of continuous negative
composite anomaly of geo-potential height synoptic
situation was observed also in terms of rainfall over India
during the monsoon season 2020. The seasonal (June-
September) rainfall over the country as a whole was 109%
of its Long Period Average (LPA) in 2020. It was third
highest after 112% of LPA in 1994 and 110% of LPA in
2019 (End of Season Report, 2020, IMD).
41
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45
In Figure 6, for Jun-Sep 1975, a cyclonic circulation (CC) is
seen between 010ᵒE-070ᵒE from 55ᵒS to 40ᵒS, trough
between 030ᵒE-050ᵒE from 30ᵒS up to south of equator and
a CC between 060ᵒE-100ᵒE/09ᵒN - 26ᵒN. So, in the case of
continuous negative anomaly, CC/trough is seen from south
IO to north IO (AS and BOB). Almost similar synoptic
situations had been observed for Apr-May 1975 anomaly,
CC between 40ᵒE-090ᵒE/55ᵒS-27ᵒS, CC between 040ᵒW-
0ᵒ/35ᵒS-equator, trough between 060ᵒE-080ᵒE/10ᵒS to north
of equator and CC between 05ᵒN-15ᵒN over AS and trough
between 10ᵒN-15ᵒN over BOB. Thus, moisture feed from
south IO up to Indian sub continent is available (Figure 7),
if negative continuous anomaly of geo-potential height is
observed at 850 hPa. In the years of the presence of such
situations over IO, the presence of El-Nino over East Pacific
appears to have practically no adverse effect on summer
monsoon rainfall in India.
J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45 Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar

Figure 5c. 850 geo-potential height composite anomaly for Jun-Sep, 2020.

Figure 6. 850 hPa vector wind composite anomaly for Jun to Sep, 1975.

Figure 7. 850 hPa relative humidity composite anomaly for Jun to Sep 1975.

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Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45

Table 1. Pacific warm period based on threshold of +0.5ᵒC for the ONI values for the region 3.4

Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ
1953 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8
1987 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.1
1997 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4
2015 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6

High-Low, Low to the north of High and other patterns
in geo-potential height field
At least one pair of High-Low should be present at 850 hPa
north of 40ᵒS/30ᵒS between 40ᵒW-120ᵒE for occurrence of
normal rainfall (97% -104%) over India (Kumar et al.,
2016). High –Low combination along 40ᵒS had been
observed for 7 years (25%) from 1948 – 1975 and 22 years
(48.9%) from 1976-2020 for the months of April-May. This
combination had increased by 22.7% from 1976 onwards.
During all these 28 years, normal rainfall occurred. During
1969, 1976, 1982, 1989, 1991, 1995, 1997 and 2006 a low
was located to the north of high (Kumar and Kumar, 2021).
Out of these 8 years, one year each below normal (1991)
and deficient rainfall occurred (1982). Other combinations
of Highs and Lows had been observed along 40ᵒS for 6
years (21.4%) from 1948-1975 and 16 years (35.6%) from
1976-2020. So, other combination had increased by 14.2%.
Out of 22 years of other combinations of Highs and Lows
normal rainfall occurred over India only during 3 years
(13.6%). An increase of 14.2% in other combinations of
Highs and Lows is not conducive for occurrence of normal
rainfall.
El-Nino conditions in Nino 3.4 region during 1950-2020
The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), 3 months running mean of
SST, for Nino3.4 region (5ᵒN-5ᵒS, 120ᵒW-170ᵒW), is
becoming higher and this had been observed in all 12 ONI
values for a year. Firstly, it was observed in 1987 for
December-January-February (DJF) to November-
December-January (NDJ) and again during 2015 with the
highest value of 2.6ᵒC in NDJ. In 2015, ONI values
remained either constant or they increased. In 1953,
maximum ONI value had been observed as 0.8ᵒC. In 1997,
it was 2.4ᵒC in OND and NDJ (Table 1).
Impact of global warming on ISMR
In the discussions to follow, the following categorization of
rainfall, as used in IMD, has been used: ‘Excess’>110% of
LPA, ‘Above Normal’ (105-110%), ‘Normal’ (96-104%),
Below Normal (90-95%) and ‘Deficient’ < 90%. Seasonal
Rainfall, for India as a whole, for 72 year period (1948-
2019), has been given in Table 2. It follows from the Table
2 that during the first 28-year period (1948-75), below
normal rainfall had occurred during 1952 only. But, during
the following 44 year period (1976-2019), below normal
rainfall had been observed during 8years: 1985, 1991, 1992,
2000, 2001, 2012, 2017and 2018. So, up to 1975, below
normal rainfall had been observed in 3.6% cases, which
increased to 17.8 % during the next 45 years period. So,
occurrence of below normal rainfall has increased by 14.2%
in terms of number of years from 1976 onwards. Normal
rainfall had been observed in 21 years (75%) during the first
28 years period and 28 years (62.2%) during the next 45
years. A decrease of 12.8% in the number of years had been
observed in occurrence of normal rainfall over India from
1976 onwards. Deficient rainfall occurred over India for 18
years during June from 1948-1975 (64.3%) and 17 years
from 1976-2020 (37.8%). An Improvement of 26.5% in
occurrence of normal monthly rainfall over India had been
noticed during June from first 28 years (1948-1975) to next
45 years (1976-2020). This may be the result of occurrence
of more thunder showers during June on account of rise in
temperature in June. July rainfall had been observed
deficient during seven years (25%) for the first 28 years and
19 years (43.2%) during next 45 years from 1976-2020. So,
the occurrence of normal rainfall in July has decreased to
18.2% in terms of number of years from 1976 onwards.
There is no significant change in occurrence of deficient
rainfall during August from first 28 years to next 45 years
(0.7 % increase). September rainfall had been observed as
deficient for 10 years (35.7%) during first 28-year period
and 24 years (53.3%) during next 45 years. So, occurrence
of deficient rainfall increased to 17.6% in terms of number
of years for September from 1976 onwards.
An Analysis of seasonal (June-September) rainfall for the
period 1948-75 for four homogeneous regions of India has
shown an increase in occurrence of deficient rainfall (-10%
or less of its LPA) in number of years over northwest India
to 8.09%, central India to 9.04%, northeast India to 6.81%
and south peninsular India to 13.31% from first 28 years to
next 45 years.

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J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 25(5) (2021), 36-45 Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar

Table 2. Rainfall (in % departure) over India during summer monsoon from 1948-2019.

1948 1949 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957
(1.8) (0.5) (3.7) (-18.7) (-8.2) (9.8) (3.1) (10.1) (13.6) (-2.4)
1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967
(9.8) (14.3) (0.6) (21.8) (-3.0) (-2.1) (9.8) (-18.2) (-13.2) (0.1)
1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
(-10.3) (0.2) (12.2) (4.0) (-23.9) (7.5) (-12.0) (15.2)
1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
(2.5) (4.0) (9.2) (-19.0) (3.9) (-0.2) (-14.5) (13.0) (-4.4) (-7.1)
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
(-12.7) (-19.4) (19.3) (0.9) (6.2) (-9.3) (-6.7) (-0.9) (12.5) (-1.9)
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
(3.4) (2.2) (4.0) (-4.4) (-7.8) (-7.8) (-19.2) (2.3) (-13.8) (-1.3)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
(-0.4) (5.7) (-1.7) (-21.8) (1.8) (1.6) (-7.0) (6.0) (-12.0) (-14.0)
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(-3.0) (-5.0) (-9.0) (10%) (9%)

CONCLUSIONS rainfall had increased by 14.2% in terms of number of year

(i) Continuous negative temperature anomaly observed from
50-60ᵒS towards Indian sub-continent at 850 hPa in the
composite anomaly for April-May1948-1975, had been
replaced by positive temperature anomaly from 40-50ᵒS for
April-May1976-2019.
(ii) Out of 28 years period of 1948-1975, continuous
negative geo-potential height composite anomaly had been
observed for 15 (or 53%) years. It was observed for 6, 5 and
3 years, in the decades of 1950s, 1960s and1970s,
respectively. This pattern got reduced and became non-
existent after 1975. Normal to excess rainfall had been
observed over India during all these 15 years, though the
years 1957, 1958 and 1963 had been El-Nino years. In
reduced coverage of South Indian Ocean and Indian region,
this feature reappeared from 40ᵒS to 20ᵒN over Arabian Sea
and along west coast of India, covering some portions of
peninsular India from June-Sept 2020. Seasonal rainfall
during 2020 was observed as 109% of its LPA.
from 1976 onwards.
(v) Deficient rainfall occurred over India for 18 years during
June from 1948-1975 (64.3%) and 17 years from 1976-2020
(37.8%). An Improvement of 26.5% in occurrence of
normal monthly rainfall over India had been noticed during
June from first 28 years (1948-1975) to next 45 years
(1976-2020). This may be the result of occurrence of more
thunder showers during June on account of rise in
temperature in June. Occurrence of normal rainfall in July
and September had decreased to 18.2% and 17.6%
respectively in terms of number of year from 1976 onwards.
There is no significant change in occurrence of deficient
rainfall during August from first 28 years to next 45 years
(0.7% increase).
(vi) The Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), for Nino 3.4 region is
becoming higher and this had been observed in all 12 ONI
values in 1987 and in 2015. It was the maximum at 2.6ᵒC in
NDJ of 2015.

(iii) In the case of the presence of continuous negative ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

anomaly, CC/trough is seen from South IO to North IO (AS
and BOB), showing moisture feed from South IO to Indian
sub continent. If such a situation is present over the IO, the
simultaneous presence of El-Nino conditions over East
Pacific appears to have practically no adverse effect on
summer monsoon rainfall over India.
(iv) Normal rainfall had been observed in 21 years (75%)
during the first 28 years period and 28 years (62.2%) during
next 45 years period. A decrease of 12.8% in the number of
years had been observed in occurrence of normal rainfall
over India from 1976 onwards. Occurrence of below normal
Authors are thankful to India Meteorological Department
for the use of monthly/seasonal rainfall data from 1911-
2018 from their website, and NOAA Earth System
Laboratory (U.S.A.) for using their website for the
preparation of anomalies of temperature, geo-potential
height/vector wind at 850 hPa/ for 72 years period from
1948-2020. Authors are also thankful to NOAA for use of
ENSO bulletin for getting ONI values for Nino 3.4 region
from 1950-2020, prepared by Climate Prediction
Centre/NCEP, USA, and Google Wikipedia for using a few
references. Authors are thankful and grateful to Dr. Onkari

44
Vinod Kumar and M.Satya Kumar
Prasad and Shri A. K. Jaswal, Reviewers and Dr Om
Prakash Pandey, Chief Editor for their useful suggestions
and proper guidance. Thanks are also due to Dr. P. R.
Reddy, former Emeritus Scientist, CSIR-NGRI, Hyderabad
for useful suggestions.
Compliance with Ethical Standards
The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest
and adhere to copyright norms.
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